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(Bloomberg)   Trump administration to ramp up trade war with tariffs on Chinese-made clothing and electronics, as well as limiting investment in the US - because who needs investment, right?   ( bloomberg.com) divider line
    More: Followup, International trade, U.S., Trump administration, Chinese investments, U.S. officials, U.S. Trade Representative, trade war, President Donald Trump  
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1636 clicks; posted to Politics » on 07 Mar 2018 at 6:12 AM (19 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2018-03-06 09:47:59 PM  
China is also holding a significant amount of US debt.  Any threats of tariffs will be met with "Nice loan there, it'd be a shame if we called your note, like, tomorrow, Donnie".

The Best People, indeed.
 
2018-03-06 10:08:52 PM  

markie_farkie: China is also holding a significant amount of US debt.  Any threats of tariffs will be met with "Nice loan there, it'd be a shame if we called your note, like, tomorrow, Donnie".

The Best People, indeed.


Treasury bonds or T-bills don't work that way. Generally they're locked in till they reach maturity.
That's not to say they won't start transitioning to a different currency or other monetary haven, but the guarantee of return from the US treasury is pretty much the gold standard. (For now)

Something China could do, is thunderf*ck the stock markets by dumping massive amounts of shares. But in the long run they're still shooting themselves in the foot...

/hopefully a smarter Farker weighs in for clarification.
 
2018-03-06 10:14:21 PM  
Guess my HTC phones and the new Vive Pro coming out soon is going to be a no go. :(
 
2018-03-06 10:52:37 PM  
Trump knows that his and his daughter's clothing lines are mostly made in China, yes?
 
2018-03-06 11:42:20 PM  

Redh8t: markie_farkie: China is also holding a significant amount of US debt.  Any threats of tariffs will be met with "Nice loan there, it'd be a shame if we called your note, like, tomorrow, Donnie".

The Best People, indeed.

Treasury bonds or T-bills don't work that way. Generally they're locked in till they reach maturity.
That's not to say they won't start transitioning to a different currency or other monetary haven, but the guarantee of return from the US treasury is pretty much the gold standard. (For now)

Something China could do, is thunderf*ck the stock markets by dumping massive amounts of shares. But in the long run they're still shooting themselves in the foot...

/hopefully a smarter Farker weighs in for clarification.


If you cash in Tbills early, you will lose money or barely break even, especially with the low rate of return (we are so punctual with payments that a couple of years ago we were actually offering negative rates - and still pulling in takers, since a steady check from the US was seen as better than whatever ups and down the next several years might bring).  China dumping its Treasury debt would mean a short-term pay-out, but that would represent them losing money over-all.  Now, that short-term pay-out would be staggeringly massive, but it would also rob China of its best piggybank.  The problem with the "China is gonna debt-fark the US" line is that China, at least for the next 3 or 4 decades wants a reasonably stable Us to park money - blowing up the US means that they would have to serve as their own back, and China isn't that stable in its economy yet.  Also, China has so many other ways to fark with the US with regard to trade, that burning the Treasury down is massive overkill.  For instance, pretty much every Christmas ornament, light, and tchotchke that will be sold this coming winter in the US will be ordered from China in the next month or so.  Simply placing a tariff on Western holiday crap would make every retailer in the US crap its pants.
 
2018-03-07 01:46:21 AM  

phalamir: Redh8t: markie_farkie: China is also holding a significant amount of US debt.  Any threats of tariffs will be met with "Nice loan there, it'd be a shame if we called your note, like, tomorrow, Donnie".

The Best People, indeed.

Treasury bonds or T-bills don't work that way. Generally they're locked in till they reach maturity.
That's not to say they won't start transitioning to a different currency or other monetary haven, but the guarantee of return from the US treasury is pretty much the gold standard. (For now)

Something China could do, is thunderf*ck the stock markets by dumping massive amounts of shares. But in the long run they're still shooting themselves in the foot...

/hopefully a smarter Farker weighs in for clarification.

If you cash in Tbills early, you will lose money or barely break even, especially with the low rate of return (we are so punctual with payments that a couple of years ago we were actually offering negative rates - and still pulling in takers, since a steady check from the US was seen as better than whatever ups and down the next several years might bring).  China dumping its Treasury debt would mean a short-term pay-out, but that would represent them losing money over-all.  Now, that short-term pay-out would be staggeringly massive, but it would also rob China of its best piggybank.  The problem with the "China is gonna debt-fark the US" line is that China, at least for the next 3 or 4 decades wants a reasonably stable Us to park money - blowing up the US means that they would have to serve as their own back, and China isn't that stable in its economy yet.  Also, China has so many other ways to fark with the US with regard to trade, that burning the Treasury down is massive overkill.  For instance, pretty much every Christmas ornament, light, and tchotchke that will be sold this coming winter in the US will be ordered from China in the next month or so.  Simply placing a tariff on Western holiday crap would make every retailer in the ...


That and China only holds about 8% of US debt. People always seem to overestimate the amount, for some reason.
 
2018-03-07 02:31:34 AM  
Is he trying to tank the economy?
 
2018-03-07 02:35:38 AM  
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-03-07 02:42:11 AM  

Makh: Is he trying to tank the economy?


no, I think Donny panicked and figured 'trade war' was going to be his best bet to distract everyone from the latest round of scandals.
 
2018-03-07 06:18:23 AM  

Weaver95: Makh: Is he trying to tank the economy?

no, I think Donny panicked and figured 'trade war' was going to be his best bet to distract everyone from the latest round of scandals.


Why not both?

Putin would love to see our economy in the crapper.
 
2018-03-07 06:21:05 AM  
Paying 500k to Kushner for presidental access is still ok, right?
 
2018-03-07 06:31:41 AM  
Something like this should have been done a long time ago, but it's too late now given how many supply chains are now set in stone. China's partially state-owned, protectionist economy being let into the WTO was one of the greatest failures of neoliberalism.
 
2018-03-07 06:34:49 AM  
So China also refused to give the Kush the money hehe wanted?
 
2018-03-07 06:39:22 AM  
Congress can very easily bring the madness to an end by changing the Trade Act of 1974. They can repeal Section 122 and instantly Trump's ability to unilaterally create tariffs goes out the window. Amazingly, it may actually be a Republican president that ends up reducing the power of the executive branch for the first time in generations.
 
2018-03-07 06:40:04 AM  

fusillade762: phalamir: Redh8t: markie_farkie: China is also holding a significant amount of US debt.  Any threats of tariffs will be met with "Nice loan there, it'd be a shame if we called your note, like, tomorrow, Donnie".

The Best People, indeed.

Treasury bonds or T-bills don't work that way. Generally they're locked in till they reach maturity.
That's not to say they won't start transitioning to a different currency or other monetary haven, but the guarantee of return from the US treasury is pretty much the gold standard. (For now)

Something China could do, is thunderf*ck the stock markets by dumping massive amounts of shares. But in the long run they're still shooting themselves in the foot...

/hopefully a smarter Farker weighs in for clarification.

If you cash in Tbills early, you will lose money or barely break even, especially with the low rate of return (we are so punctual with payments that a couple of years ago we were actually offering negative rates - and still pulling in takers, since a steady check from the US was seen as better than whatever ups and down the next several years might bring).  China dumping its Treasury debt would mean a short-term pay-out, but that would represent them losing money over-all.  Now, that short-term pay-out would be staggeringly massive, but it would also rob China of its best piggybank.  The problem with the "China is gonna debt-fark the US" line is that China, at least for the next 3 or 4 decades wants a reasonably stable Us to park money - blowing up the US means that they would have to serve as their own back, and China isn't that stable in its economy yet.  Also, China has so many other ways to fark with the US with regard to trade, that burning the Treasury down is massive overkill.  For instance, pretty much every Christmas ornament, light, and tchotchke that will be sold this coming winter in the US will be ordered from China in the next month or so.  Simply placing a tariff on Western holiday crap would make every retailer in the ...

That and China only holds about 8% of US debt. People always seem to overestimate the amount, for some reason.


In addition, Chinese real estate investment in the US on the coasts is high and helps drive up housing costs. (Source: some article I read about a year ago but can't look up right now, and personal experience living near DC).
 
2018-03-07 06:43:32 AM  
I'm sure China is well aware that Trump is a stupid bastard.
 
2018-03-07 06:48:13 AM  

Redh8t: That's not to say they won't start transitioning to a different currency or other monetary haven, but the guarantee of return from the US treasury is pretty much the gold standard. (For now)


China *needs* to buy US Bonds in order to get rid of all the US Dollars coming into the country. Their entire system relies on the Dollar being significantly stronger than the Yuan, which keeps their exports cheap for the US market. If their economy gets flooded with US Dollars, the Dollar weakens locally and everything collapses.

So to prevent that from happening, the Bank of China prints more Yuan, buys all the USD with them (keeping Yuan value low and USD value high), and shovels the USD right back by buying T-Bills with them.

So even *if* CHina decides to cash out its current US bonds holdings, they'd just end up immediately buying more. It's just not a thing that's going to happen.
=Smidge=
 
2018-03-07 06:49:44 AM  

King Something: Trump knows that his and his daughter's clothing lines are mostly made in China, yes?


You can stop with your first two words and assume the answer is no.  Remember, this is the guy who believes his own lies, no matter if they change second to second.
 
2018-03-07 06:49:49 AM  

Deneb81: In addition, Chinese real estate investment in the US on the coasts is high and helps drive up housing costs. (Source: some article I read about a year ago but can't look up right now, and personal experience living near DC).


That is individual Chinese individuals, however, so I'm not sure Trump's rules would necessarily nab them. These are the people who are part of the global supranational elite and are using property as a means to launder and squirrel away money away from the prying eyes of government, much like Trump himself is wont to do. i imagine that the number of intermediaries involved in these kinds of transactions will make any attempt at country-targeted tariffs moot.
 
2018-03-07 06:56:51 AM  
So have we always been at war with Eastasia? I can't keep up.
 
2018-03-07 06:57:24 AM  
I don't know how it will play out. I doubt anyone knows. But I know this.

1. It will be ugly.
2. Reel Muricans will be told to blame Jimmy Carter, or something, and they will do so.
 
2018-03-07 07:00:11 AM  
Has Trump thought about what the tariffs will do to the price of the border wall that Mexico is definitely paying for?

/the answer always "No".
 
2018-03-07 07:02:06 AM  

brax33: Guess my HTC phones and the new Vive Pro coming out soon is going to be a no go. :(


HTC is from the Taiwan part of China.
 
2018-03-07 07:03:13 AM  

Smidge204: Redh8t: That's not to say they won't start transitioning to a different currency or other monetary haven, but the guarantee of return from the US treasury is pretty much the gold standard. (For now)

China *needs* to buy US Bonds in order to get rid of all the US Dollars coming into the country. Their entire system relies on the Dollar being significantly stronger than the Yuan, which keeps their exports cheap for the US market. If their economy gets flooded with US Dollars, the Dollar weakens locally and everything collapses.

So to prevent that from happening, the Bank of China prints more Yuan, buys all the USD with them (keeping Yuan value low and USD value high), and shovels the USD right back by buying T-Bills with them.

So even *if* CHina decides to cash out its current US bonds holdings, they'd just end up immediately buying more. It's just not a thing that's going to happen.
=Smidge=


OK, so you believe the bullshiat you hear on Fox. Not good for you.

Reality is the opposite.
 
2018-03-07 07:07:14 AM  

Ketchuponsteak: brax33: Guess my HTC phones and the new Vive Pro coming out soon is going to be a no go. :(

HTC is from the Taiwan part of China.


Do you think anyone left in the Trump Administration knows the difference?
 
Skr
2018-03-07 07:09:31 AM  
Crap, there goes my frivolous Wish.com spending
 
2018-03-07 07:17:03 AM  
The EU has announced that it'll put tariffs on the following:

Motorcycles
Jeans
Bourbon whiskey
Orange juice
Corn
Steel
Pleasure boats
Cosmetics


I am not sure about Pleasure Boats. I am guessing the EU will put tariffs on cruises?

So its a mixture of large US exports, and products produced to hurt Trumps core demographics.

Picking a trade war with the EU is... dunno, just stupid. The EU is also likely to coordinate with other nations, in order to literally bankrupt those targeted companies.
 
2018-03-07 07:21:36 AM  

Archidude: Ketchuponsteak: brax33: Guess my HTC phones and the new Vive Pro coming out soon is going to be a no go. :(

HTC is from the Taiwan part of China.

Do you think anyone left in the Trump Administration knows the difference?


No. But maybe someone who does the practical work does.
 
2018-03-07 07:24:29 AM  

Ketchuponsteak: The EU has announced that it'll put tariffs on the following:

Motorcycles
Bourbon whiskey

So its a mixture of large US exports, and products produced to hurt Trumps core demographics.

Picking a trade war with the EU is... dunno, just stupid. The EU is also likely to coordinate with other nations, in order to literally bankrupt those targeted companies.


Wisconsin and Tennessee.  I wouldn't mind a voter uprising in either state.
 
2018-03-07 07:26:47 AM  
Chinese clothing and electronics?  So the Hoverround Walmart Brigade will see prices increase?
 
2018-03-07 07:28:35 AM  
I have a vacation to China and Japan coming up that we've been planning for two years. My only hope for months has been he waits until after July to fark things up. The last six months we've been eating poutine and watching Flashpoint, if anyone asks I'm from Mississauga.
 
2018-03-07 07:28:56 AM  
Looks like the Chinese wouldn't buy into 666 5th Ave either.
 
2018-03-07 07:29:18 AM  
Open letter to anyone who might be able to act on the information herein:

Please explain to the president (using one-syllable words where possible) the necessity of reliable foreign trade to maintain our current level of technology. US technology- particularly in military matters- is what makes the US such an economic and military powerhouse. Limiting critical raw materials (for example, rare earths from China) is basically cutting our own throats. Without raw materials not readily available in the US (titanium and uranium, for example), we can't even maintain our current level of technology, let alone develop anything new.

Perhaps this argument will work on the Toddler-in-Chief- "We need to import things in order to kill brown people. Without things from other countries, our boom-boom planes will not fly, and our boom-booms will not go boom-boom. Without things from other countries, you don't get a new phone to use for Twitter."
 
2018-03-07 07:31:39 AM  

markie_farkie: China is also holding a significant amount of US debt.  Any threats of tariffs will be met with "Nice loan there, it'd be a shame if we called your note, like, tomorrow, Donnie".

The Best People, indeed.


It's 19%.  And if they unloaded it all at one time they would hurt themselves more than anyone. They aren't that stupid.
 
2018-03-07 07:31:43 AM  
Well, China does need to be held accountable for IP theft, and no administration has done anything about it yet.  Is this the right approach?  Since Trump is behind it, almost certainly not, since taking international economic advise from him is like taking neurosurgery advise from a 5 year old.
 
2018-03-07 07:36:43 AM  

Ketchuponsteak: The EU has announced that it'll put tariffs on the following:

Motorcycles
Jeans
Bourbon whiskey
Orange juice
Corn
Steel
Pleasure boats
Cosmetics

I am not sure about Pleasure Boats. I am guessing the EU will put tariffs on cruises?

So its a mixture of large US exports, and products produced to hurt Trumps core demographics.

Picking a trade war with the EU is... dunno, just stupid. The EU is also likely to coordinate with other nations, in order to literally bankrupt those targeted companies.


Hmm, I wonder what the impact of that will be on my investments in Frozen Orange Juice Concentrate futures?
 
2018-03-07 07:38:51 AM  
So does this apply to all trump products made in China too or are those going to get a pass on the tariffs?

Smart money is on the latter.
 
2018-03-07 07:43:49 AM  

Wenchmaster: Open letter to anyone who might be able to act on the information herein:

Please explain to the president (using one-syllable words where possible) the necessity of reliable foreign trade to maintain our current level of technology. US technology- particularly in military matters- is what makes the US such an economic and military powerhouse. Limiting critical raw materials (for example, rare earths from China) is basically cutting our own throats. Without raw materials not readily available in the US (titanium and uranium, for example), we can't even maintain our current level of technology, let alone develop anything new.

Perhaps this argument will work on the Toddler-in-Chief- "We need to import things in order to kill brown people. Without things from other countries, our boom-boom planes will not fly, and our boom-booms will not go boom-boom. Without things from other countries, you don't get a new phone to use for Twitter."


You think Gary Cohn did not attempt that such explanations?
 
2018-03-07 07:46:23 AM  
Ketchuponsteak: The EU has announced that it'll put tariffs on the following:

Motorcycles
Jeans
Bourbon whiskey
Orange juice
Corn
Steel
Pleasure boats
Cosmetics


I am not sure about Pleasure Boats. I am guessing the EU will put tariffs on cruises?


Chris-Craft is Headquartered in Florida.  Searay in Tennessee.

Orange juice is Florida and California

Corn is Kansas and Nebraska.

I don't know where makeup is made.

It looks like they're targeting Trump states.
 
2018-03-07 07:48:19 AM  
If there is only one thing I learned in all the Econ classes I ever took, and there literally might just be the one thing, it's that the answer to any economic question is a sudden swing in costs of just one major sector of manufacturing.

That solves everything.
 
2018-03-07 07:48:47 AM  

Ketchuponsteak: The EU has announced that it'll put tariffs on the following:

Motorcycles
Jeans
Bourbon whiskey
Orange juice
Corn
Steel
Pleasure boats
Cosmetics


i.imgflip.comView Full Size
 
2018-03-07 07:54:00 AM  
Isn't that kind of going against the interests of Trump branded crap?  His ties, Ivanka's shoes and bags...that sort of thing?

Also: bold move, Cotton.
 
2018-03-07 07:54:52 AM  

Muta: It looks like they're targeting Trump states.


This.
 
2018-03-07 07:57:27 AM  
This is just because of Ivanka's failed clothing line that was based in China.
 
2018-03-07 07:57:54 AM  

Psychohazard: Ketchuponsteak: The EU has announced that it'll put tariffs on the following:

Motorcycles
Bourbon whiskey

So its a mixture of large US exports, and products produced to hurt Trumps core demographics.

Picking a trade war with the EU is... dunno, just stupid. The EU is also likely to coordinate with other nations, in order to literally bankrupt those targeted companies.

Wisconsin and Tennessee.  I wouldn't mind a voter uprising in either state.


Yeah, its a combination of targetting swing states, and hurting specific sectors. Sectors that the EU doesn't care about.

The economy of the EU does after all not really rely on cosmetics and orange juice (man, Cuba is going to have a field day if Trump pulls the trigger).
 
2018-03-07 07:59:23 AM  

Archidude: Ketchuponsteak: The EU has announced that it'll put tariffs on the following:

Motorcycles
Jeans
Bourbon whiskey
Orange juice
Corn
Steel
Pleasure boats
Cosmetics

I am not sure about Pleasure Boats. I am guessing the EU will put tariffs on cruises?

So its a mixture of large US exports, and products produced to hurt Trumps core demographics.

Picking a trade war with the EU is... dunno, just stupid. The EU is also likely to coordinate with other nations, in order to literally bankrupt those targeted companies.

Hmm, I wonder what the impact of that will be on my investments in Frozen Orange Juice Concentrate futures?


pbs.twimg.comView Full Size
 
2018-03-07 08:01:43 AM  

Muta: Ketchuponsteak: The EU has announced that it'll put tariffs on the following:

Motorcycles
Jeans
Bourbon whiskey
Orange juice
Corn
Steel
Pleasure boats
Cosmetics

I am not sure about Pleasure Boats. I am guessing the EU will put tariffs on cruises?

Chris-Craft is Headquartered in Florida.  Searay in Tennessee.

Orange juice is Florida and California

Corn is Kansas and Nebraska.

I don't know where makeup is made.

It looks like they're targeting Trump states.


The EU officially said that they would target swing states. So yeah.

It also looks like its all products that are more luxuries, than necessities. Unlike Trumps steel tax...
 
2018-03-07 08:06:13 AM  
There's go my 99 cent stores.

/ Trump's plan -- if the opium, homelessness and law enforcement don't 'clean up' our poverty problem then starvation should do the trick.
 
2018-03-07 08:13:38 AM  

markie_farkie: China is also holding a significant amount of US debt.  Any threats of tariffs will be met with "Nice loan there, it'd be a shame if we called your note, like, tomorrow, Donnie".

The Best People, indeed.


That's not how sovereign debt works. You can't just arbitrarily decide to "call" a loan. You can stop making more loans, and refuse to refinance existing debt, but you can't just decide one day that you're ready to get all your money back. Not without taking a massive shave on the amount you actually get back.
 
2018-03-07 08:15:14 AM  

Muta: Ketchuponsteak: The EU has announced that it'll put tariffs on the following:

Motorcycles
Jeans
Bourbon whiskey
Orange juice
Corn
Steel
Pleasure boats
Cosmetics

I am not sure about Pleasure Boats. I am guessing the EU will put tariffs on cruises?

Chris-Craft is Headquartered in Florida.  Searay in Tennessee.

Orange juice is Florida and California

Corn is Kansas and Nebraska.

I don't know where makeup is made.

It looks like they're targeting Trump states.


Bourbon - McConnell's main istricts in KY
 
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