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(Tech Xplore)   China poised to reshape the automobile world. On a side note, there weren't any negative consequences the last time a "sleeping giant" awoke causing major disruptions to manufacturing and trade were there?   ( techxplore.com) divider line
    More: Plug, electric vehicles, Internal combustion engine, Electric vehicle, Automobile, internal combustion engines, electric cars, Roland Berger, German carmakers  
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1076 clicks; posted to Geek » on 06 Mar 2018 at 5:35 PM (32 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



40 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2018-03-06 04:06:45 PM  
A trade war with the US levying heavy tariffs on also panels, steel and aluminum should totally stop China's silly 30-50 year vision of a vibrant clean energy sector. We don't need to look forward, we need more 1950's were manufacturing in the rust belt. ''merika Fark yeah!
 
2018-03-06 05:45:59 PM  
Lying about your pollution levels is a sure way to never, ever trust anything you or your industry says.

Now, electric cars better not have any nasty surprises.
 
2018-03-06 05:54:13 PM  
I can't wait to drive a Lenovo.
 
2018-03-06 05:56:19 PM  
The problem with ripping off existing cars is that you can't export them.

\although they do own Volvo.
 
2018-03-06 05:57:48 PM  

Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: Lying about your pollution levels is a sure way to never, ever trust anything you or your industry says.

Now, electric cars better not have any nasty surprises.


You mean like being dependent on coal, with a questionable efficiency once the power has come throguh the grid to your charger.

The drivetrain lifespan of an electric vehicle could be 20-30 years, provided they keep making the batteries and mosfets, both easily replaced. There will be an interesting secondary market of car flippers who buy them, spruce them up, apply the latest in self driving, and sell them on. That is, if they don't just lease them and crush them every 6 years. Which is a viable business model, especially if you might become liable for older self driving car technology.
 
2018-03-06 06:02:50 PM  
Hey, finished products, exempt from steel or aluminum tariffs as proposed...

Yep, that would be a big gimme to China. Way to stick it to them, Trump! May your next limo be reinforced with Chinese steel...
 
2018-03-06 06:14:51 PM  
I'm not worried... It's not like some east Asian nation started out as a joke, invested in R&D and QA and proceeded to eat Detroit's lunch.
 
2018-03-06 06:23:40 PM  
Calling China a "sleeping giant" at any point in the last two decades shows such a profound lack of understanding of global trade that it immediately renders your opinion less than worthless.
 
2018-03-06 06:26:39 PM  

wildcardjack: Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: Lying about your pollution levels is a sure way to never, ever trust anything you or your industry says.

Now, electric cars better not have any nasty surprises.

You mean like being dependent on coal, with a questionable efficiency once the power has come throguh the grid to your charger.

The drivetrain lifespan of an electric vehicle could be 20-30 years, provided they keep making the batteries and mosfets, both easily replaced. There will be an interesting secondary market of car flippers who buy them, spruce them up, apply the latest in self driving, and sell them on. That is, if they don't just lease them and crush them every 6 years. Which is a viable business model, especially if you might become liable for older self driving car technology.


I drove my mom's 2005 Prius yesterday. It's been in the shop exactly once. (Ironically, for the "starter battery") and it gets (as of yesterday) 47 MPG on unleaded gas.

Detroit is so f'ing far behind it hurts on a visceral level.
 
2018-03-06 06:29:40 PM  

wildcardjack: You mean like being dependent on coal, with a questionable efficiency once the power has come throguh the grid to your charger


"Questionable" efficiency through the grid was answered long ago.

How many homes and businesses generate their own power instead of using the grid?
 
2018-03-06 06:32:06 PM  

jaytkay: wildcardjack: You mean like being dependent on coal, with a questionable efficiency once the power has come throguh the grid to your charger

"Questionable" efficiency through the grid was answered long ago.

How many homes and businesses generate their own power instead of using the grid?


17.
 
2018-03-06 06:33:59 PM  

maxheck: Detroit is so f'ing far behind it hurts on a visceral level.


I recall years and years of breathless coverage of the upcoming "groundbreaking" and "unprecedented" Chevy Volt.

The Volt was introduced ten years after the Prius in the US.
 
2018-03-06 06:40:59 PM  
Can't write an article about electric cars without taking a swipe at Tesla, it's in the guidelines.

On the other hand, the Model 3 outsold all other electric (including hybrids) cars in the US during January and February. When Tesla hits 5000 Model 3s a week, they will be outselling all other electric cars combined (US).
 
2018-03-06 06:58:37 PM  

natazha: Can't write an article about electric cars without taking a swipe at Tesla, it's in the guidelines.

On the other hand, the Model 3 outsold all other electric (including hybrids) cars in the US during January and February. When Tesla hits 5000 Model 3s a week, they will be outselling all other electric cars combined (US).


Considering the price point of a Tesla and their already meager profit margin as well as their very limited (if any) holdings elsewhere that might offset domestic losses, I doubt Tesla will survive the "super great, easy to win Trump Trade War"
 
2018-03-06 07:22:58 PM  
The Jaguar I-Pace looks intriguing - it's certainly a poke in the eye for Tesla's Model X. Maybe Europe is finally getting it's act together with electrics.
 
2018-03-06 07:54:32 PM  
They were boom times, but Japan's economy has never really recovered.
 
2018-03-06 08:05:02 PM  

wildcardjack: You mean like being dependent on coal, with a questionable efficiency once the power has come throguh the grid to your charger.


Citation needed.

I've only seen a handful of papers or articles that question EVs because they "depend on coal," and they cherrypicked the data or used China, India, Indonesia, Australia, or other places with dirtier power to skew the results.
 
2018-03-06 08:11:24 PM  

natazha: Can't write an article about electric cars without taking a swipe at Tesla, it's in the guidelines.

On the other hand, the Model 3 outsold all other electric (including hybrids) cars in the US during January and February. When Tesla hits 5000 Model 3s a week, they will be outselling all other electric cars combined (US).


The hate for Tesla is weird. There's even a large contingent of Tesla haters on Fark. It's mind boggling. They're the only US company who's putting any real effort into what will without doubt be the future of the automobile (and doing a damn good job of it too).

They're even well ahead of Japanese manufacturers (although they do make excellent, excellent hybrids). Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, etc. don't even sell EVs domestically, and their offerings in the US are half-assed at best. They're pot committed on hydrogen even though Tesla has proven that batteries are viable with chemistry formulated for longevity, a large number of small cells, and thermal management.
 
2018-03-06 09:19:34 PM  

Lusiphur: Calling China a "sleeping giant" at any point in the last two decades shows such a profound lack of understanding of global trade that it immediately renders your opinion less than worthless.


Why is that?
 
2018-03-06 09:26:24 PM  
I wonder how many car designs China stolecreated to give them an edge in the market?
 
2018-03-06 09:45:27 PM  
China reinvented the bus and shortly afterwards that same bus was reinvented by Chinese traffic.
There's a ways to go before anyone has to worry about sleeping giants getting woke.

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-03-06 10:05:36 PM  

way south: China reinvented the bus and shortly afterwards that same bus was reinvented by Chinese traffic.
There's a ways to go before anyone has to worry about sleeping giants getting woke.

[img.fark.net image 850x455]


Now that I think about it, how in the hell does that behemoth turn? Or does it even do so?
 
2018-03-06 10:09:16 PM  

Harlee: Lusiphur: Calling China a "sleeping giant" at any point in the last two decades shows such a profound lack of understanding of global trade that it immediately renders your opinion less than worthless.

Why is that?


Because China woke up 30 years ago, brushed it's teeth in the 90s, spent most of the 00s drinking a cup of coffee and reading the morning news, and is currently putting on pants to get to work.

There's nothing sleeping there anymore. Their GDP is roughly 2/3rds of ours, and their economy is robust enough that they're starting to outsource the biatch work further interest Southeast Asia and Africa. Their GDP growth is slowing and falling in line with other developed nations, and their middle class is robust and vibrant. It's the economic equivalent of saying "hey, did you guys hear about that obscure sci fi show Stranger Things?"
 
2018-03-06 11:19:50 PM  

germ78: way south: China reinvented the bus and shortly afterwards that same bus was reinvented by Chinese traffic.
There's a ways to go before anyone has to worry about sleeping giants getting woke.

[img.fark.net image 850x455]

Now that I think about it, how in the hell does that behemoth turn? Or does it even do so?


Elevated Bus That Drives Above Traffic Jams
Youtube 9vVlBe94dCs
 
2018-03-06 11:22:00 PM  
 
2018-03-06 11:24:42 PM  

germ78: way south: China reinvented the bus and shortly afterwards that same bus was reinvented by Chinese traffic.
There's a ways to go before anyone has to worry about sleeping giants getting woke.

[img.fark.net image 850x455]

Now that I think about it, how in the hell does that behemoth turn? Or does it even do so?


While thing was a scam.
 
2018-03-07 06:13:10 AM  

Likwit: natazha: Can't write an article about electric cars without taking a swipe at Tesla, it's in the guidelines.

On the other hand, the Model 3 outsold all other electric (including hybrids) cars in the US during January and February. When Tesla hits 5000 Model 3s a week, they will be outselling all other electric cars combined (US).

The hate for Tesla is weird. There's even a large contingent of Tesla haters on Fark. It's mind boggling. They're the only US company who's putting any real effort into what will without doubt be the future of the automobile (and doing a damn good job of it too).

They're even well ahead of Japanese manufacturers (although they do make excellent, excellent hybrids). Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, etc. don't even sell EVs domestically, and their offerings in the US are half-assed at best. They're pot committed on hydrogen even though Tesla has proven that batteries are viable with chemistry formulated for longevity, a large number of small cells, and thermal management.


I don't hate Tesla.  I just question a company that hasn't made a profit yet, and is struggling to meet its production goals.  They don't seem to have been able to shift from hand assembly to mass assembly yet.
 
2018-03-07 06:37:14 AM  

dittybopper: Likwit: natazha: Can't write an article about electric cars without taking a swipe at Tesla, it's in the guidelines.

On the other hand, the Model 3 outsold all other electric (including hybrids) cars in the US during January and February. When Tesla hits 5000 Model 3s a week, they will be outselling all other electric cars combined (US).

The hate for Tesla is weird. There's even a large contingent of Tesla haters on Fark. It's mind boggling. They're the only US company who's putting any real effort into what will without doubt be the future of the automobile (and doing a damn good job of it too).

They're even well ahead of Japanese manufacturers (although they do make excellent, excellent hybrids). Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, etc. don't even sell EVs domestically, and their offerings in the US are half-assed at best. They're pot committed on hydrogen even though Tesla has proven that batteries are viable with chemistry formulated for longevity, a large number of small cells, and thermal management.

I don't hate Tesla.  I just question a company that hasn't made a profit yet, and is struggling to meet its production goals.  They don't seem to have been able to shift from hand assembly to mass assembly yet.


Yeah, it's not like there could be a bunch of short sellers out there looking to profit from inevitable downturns in the market or negative media. And if there were, they wouldn't gen their own negative "analysis".  Though it is easier and more predictable than waiting for the inevitable misstep.
 
2018-03-07 08:24:01 AM  

Likwit: natazha: Can't write an article about electric cars without taking a swipe at Tesla, it's in the guidelines.

On the other hand, the Model 3 outsold all other electric (including hybrids) cars in the US during January and February. When Tesla hits 5000 Model 3s a week, they will be outselling all other electric cars combined (US).

The hate for Tesla is weird. There's even a large contingent of Tesla haters on Fark. It's mind boggling. They're the only US company who's putting any real effort into what will without doubt be the future of the automobile (and doing a damn good job of it too).

They're even well ahead of Japanese manufacturers (although they do make excellent, excellent hybrids). Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, etc. don't even sell EVs domestically, and their offerings in the US are half-assed at best. They're pot committed on hydrogen even though Tesla has proven that batteries are viable with chemistry formulated for longevity, a large number of small cells, and thermal management.


Why Tesla gets hate:

1. Over promise
2. Under deliver
 
2018-03-07 08:48:27 AM  

Lusiphur: Harlee: Lusiphur: Calling China a "sleeping giant" at any point in the last two decades shows such a profound lack of understanding of global trade that it immediately renders your opinion less than worthless.

Why is that?

Because China woke up 30 years ago, brushed it's teeth in the 90s, spent most of the 00s drinking a cup of coffee and reading the morning news, and is currently putting on pants to get to work.

There's nothing sleeping there anymore. Their GDP is roughly 2/3rds of ours, and their economy is robust enough that they're starting to outsource the biatch work further interest Southeast Asia and Africa. Their GDP growth is slowing and falling in line with other developed nations, and their middle class is robust and vibrant. It's the economic equivalent of saying "hey, did you guys hear about that obscure sci fi show Stranger Things?"


I understand your point, and you are correct. But I think that phrases and superlatives such as that can be descriptively valid more than once, and can be applied to more than one "evolution" in a nation/people.
 
2018-03-07 02:36:37 PM  
Meh. Electric cars as they exist today are snake oil. Go look into how much CO2 is generated from the production of their lithium ion batteries.
 
2018-03-07 03:41:34 PM  

dbialac: Meh. Electric cars as they exist today are snake oil. Go look into how much CO2 is generated from the production of their lithium ion batteries.


Electric cars generate about twice as much CO2 during production as their gas counterparts, but more than make up for it throughout their lifecycle even if they use grid power. Most analyses I've seen also don't take into account the refining process, which takes about 3kWh of electricity (about 1.5kg of CO2) per gallon of gasoline.
 
2018-03-07 05:00:21 PM  

dbialac: Meh. Electric cars as they exist today are snake oil. Go look into how much CO2 is generated from the production of their lithium ion batteries.


Plus, what happens to all that lithium once the batteries are depleted? shiats still toxic, yo
 
2018-03-07 06:17:07 PM  

Likwit: dbialac: Meh. Electric cars as they exist today are snake oil. Go look into how much CO2 is generated from the production of their lithium ion batteries.

Electric cars generate about twice as much CO2 during production as their gas counterparts, but more than make up for it throughout their lifecycle even if they use grid power. Most analyses I've seen also don't take into account the refining process, which takes about 3kWh of electricity (about 1.5kg of CO2) per gallon of gasoline.


What kind of grid?
The CO2 producing fossil-fuel based US grid?
Or the cleaner-every-day-bc-more-reactors-are​-being-built Nuclear-based Chinese grid?
 
2018-03-07 06:22:18 PM  

rcain: dbialac: Meh. Electric cars as they exist today are snake oil. Go look into how much CO2 is generated from the production of their lithium ion batteries.

Plus, what happens to all that lithium once the batteries are depleted? shiats still toxic, yo


Tesla batteries have a proprietary chemistry that lets them keep 90% of capacity for roughly 15 years. Real world data from Tesla drivers is showing it may be even better than that (we just have to wait and see where they end up). In the case of Nissan batteries or Tesla batteries that are defective, they are recycled. Recovering the lithium is too expensive to be worth it, but the cells can be repurposed for industrial or home applications.

You should be more worried about consumer electronics which account for a huge number of the lithium ion batteries in landfills. I've heard numbers as high as 95%, but I can't find a source at the moment so take it with a grain of salt.
 
2018-03-07 06:33:09 PM  

nemisonic: Likwit: dbialac: Meh. Electric cars as they exist today are snake oil. Go look into how much CO2 is generated from the production of their lithium ion batteries.

Electric cars generate about twice as much CO2 during production as their gas counterparts, but more than make up for it throughout their lifecycle even if they use grid power. Most analyses I've seen also don't take into account the refining process, which takes about 3kWh of electricity (about 1.5kg of CO2) per gallon of gasoline.

What kind of grid?
The CO2 producing fossil-fuel based US grid?
Or the cleaner-every-day-bc-more-reactors-are​-being-built Nuclear-based Chinese grid?


Figures I've seen typically use a 500g of CO2 per kWh, which is the average for the US. If you live in Colorado where the power is coal heavy, it's about 600g per kWh. Live in Vermont where they're insanely focused on clean power, it's about 3g per kWh. Chinese power is getting cleaner every day, but it's still far dirtier than ours.

But that's another benefit of EVs. As grids get cleaner, cars already out on the road do as well. And as much as environmental types hate to admit it, nuclear is incredibly good for reducing CO2 emissions. Making solar panels is such an intense process that it's only about 20x cleaner than coal over the life of the panel. Nuclear is almost 200x cleaner than coal.
 
2018-03-07 08:40:38 PM  

Likwit: rcain: dbialac: Meh. Electric cars as they exist today are snake oil. Go look into how much CO2 is generated from the production of their lithium ion batteries.

Plus, what happens to all that lithium once the batteries are depleted? shiats still toxic, yo

Tesla batteries have a proprietary chemistry that lets them keep 90% of capacity for roughly 15 years. Real world data from Tesla drivers is showing it may be even better than that (we just have to wait and see where they end up). In the case of Nissan batteries or Tesla batteries that are defective, they are recycled. Recovering the lithium is too expensive to be worth it, but the cells can be repurposed for industrial or home applications.

You should be more worried about consumer electronics which account for a huge number of the lithium ion batteries in landfills. I've heard numbers as high as 95%, but I can't find a source at the moment so take it with a grain of salt.


Google up on the size and number of Tesla battery units in each car. Just because they last 15 years doesn't make them any less toxic and when you think about the number of cars produced each year - just imagine the impact we will start seeing in a few years as the 1st gen of Tesla battery packs phase out

Hydrogen fuel cell is the way to go, it's used in Asia yet Musk rails against it and calls it a sham.

I take pleasure in knowing the Toyota is building a fuel cell plant less than an hours drive from Space X
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Comp​a​nies/Toyota-seeks-fuel-cell-breakthrou​gh-with-California-hydrogen-plant?n_ci​d=NARAN1507

fark Tesla and fark Musk
I doubt Tesla will survive the Trump Trade War
So at least we get that small upside from Trymos idiocy
 
2018-03-07 09:50:29 PM  

rcain: Likwit: rcain: dbialac: Meh. Electric cars as they exist today are snake oil. Go look into how much CO2 is generated from the production of their lithium ion batteries.

Plus, what happens to all that lithium once the batteries are depleted? shiats still toxic, yo

Tesla batteries have a proprietary chemistry that lets them keep 90% of capacity for roughly 15 years. Real world data from Tesla drivers is showing it may be even better than that (we just have to wait and see where they end up). In the case of Nissan batteries or Tesla batteries that are defective, they are recycled. Recovering the lithium is too expensive to be worth it, but the cells can be repurposed for industrial or home applications.

You should be more worried about consumer electronics which account for a huge number of the lithium ion batteries in landfills. I've heard numbers as high as 95%, but I can't find a source at the moment so take it with a grain of salt.

Google up on the size and number of Tesla battery units in each car. Just because they last 15 years doesn't make them any less toxic and when you think about the number of cars produced each year - just imagine the impact we will start seeing in a few years as the 1st gen of Tesla battery packs phase out

Hydrogen fuel cell is the way to go, it's used in Asia yet Musk rails against it and calls it a sham.

I take pleasure in knowing the Toyota is building a fuel cell plant less than an hours drive from Space X
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compa​nies/Toyota-seeks-fuel-cell-breakthrou​gh-with-California-hydrogen-plant?n_ci​d=NARAN1507

fark Tesla and fark Musk
I doubt Tesla will survive the Trump Trade War
So at least we get that small upside from Trymos idiocy


Your concern is noted. Tesla and Nissan have pledged to recycle and reuse their vehicle battery packs. Why aren't you as worried about phones and whatnot? 95% is a big number.

Hydrogen is well behind battery tech at this point, and may never be feasible. Even NREL doesn't believe in hydrogen, and they love any non-fossil energy. And what happens when better battery tech comes down the pipe?

And where is it used in Asia? Honda and Toyota offer hydrogen vehicles in Japan, but they've sold maybe 2,000 between them domestically, and there are like 90 fueling stations in the whole country. Contrast this with the 3,000 Nissan Leafs sold just last month in Japan and the 70,000 individual charge points across the country (20,000 of which are 20kW or higher).
 
2018-03-08 12:16:24 AM  

Likwit: rcain: Likwit: rcain: dbialac: Meh. Electric cars as they exist today are snake oil. Go look into how much CO2 is generated from the production of their lithium ion batteries.

Plus, what happens to all that lithium once the batteries are depleted? shiats still toxic, yo

Tesla batteries have a proprietary chemistry that lets them keep 90% of capacity for roughly 15 years. Real world data from Tesla drivers is showing it may be even better than that (we just have to wait and see where they end up). In the case of Nissan batteries or Tesla batteries that are defective, they are recycled. Recovering the lithium is too expensive to be worth it, but the cells can be repurposed for industrial or home applications.

You should be more worried about consumer electronics which account for a huge number of the lithium ion batteries in landfills. I've heard numbers as high as 95%, but I can't find a source at the moment so take it with a grain of salt.

Google up on the size and number of Tesla battery units in each car. Just because they last 15 years doesn't make them any less toxic and when you think about the number of cars produced each year - just imagine the impact we will start seeing in a few years as the 1st gen of Tesla battery packs phase out

Hydrogen fuel cell is the way to go, it's used in Asia yet Musk rails against it and calls it a sham.

I take pleasure in knowing the Toyota is building a fuel cell plant less than an hours drive from Space X
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compa​nies/Toyota-seeks-fuel-cell-breakthrou​gh-with-California-hydrogen-plant?n_ci​d=NARAN1507

fark Tesla and fark Musk
I doubt Tesla will survive the Trump Trade War
So at least we get that small upside from Trymos idiocy

Your concern is noted. Tesla and Nissan have pledged to recycle and reuse their vehicle battery packs. Why aren't you as worried about phones and whatnot? 95% is a big number.

Hydrogen is well behind battery tech at this point, and may never be feasible. Even NREL ...


I am concerned about phones. I'm just staying on topic about the Automotive industry. They've been working on miniaturizing Hydrogen Fuel Cells for use in mobile devices for some time now, hopefully Toyotas research will help with that
 
2018-03-08 12:57:47 AM  

rcain: Likwit: rcain: Likwit: rcain: dbialac: Meh. Electric cars as they exist today are snake oil. Go look into how much CO2 is generated from the production of their lithium ion batteries.

Plus, what happens to all that lithium once the batteries are depleted? shiats still toxic, yo

Tesla batteries have a proprietary chemistry that lets them keep 90% of capacity for roughly 15 years. Real world data from Tesla drivers is showing it may be even better than that (we just have to wait and see where they end up). In the case of Nissan batteries or Tesla batteries that are defective, they are recycled. Recovering the lithium is too expensive to be worth it, but the cells can be repurposed for industrial or home applications.

You should be more worried about consumer electronics which account for a huge number of the lithium ion batteries in landfills. I've heard numbers as high as 95%, but I can't find a source at the moment so take it with a grain of salt.

Google up on the size and number of Tesla battery units in each car. Just because they last 15 years doesn't make them any less toxic and when you think about the number of cars produced each year - just imagine the impact we will start seeing in a few years as the 1st gen of Tesla battery packs phase out

Hydrogen fuel cell is the way to go, it's used in Asia yet Musk rails against it and calls it a sham.

I take pleasure in knowing the Toyota is building a fuel cell plant less than an hours drive from Space X
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compa​nies/Toyota-seeks-fuel-cell-breakthrou​gh-with-California-hydrogen-plant?n_ci​d=NARAN1507

fark Tesla and fark Musk
I doubt Tesla will survive the Trump Trade War
So at least we get that small upside from Trymos idiocy

Your concern is noted. Tesla and Nissan have pledged to recycle and reuse their vehicle battery packs. Why aren't you as worried about phones and whatnot? 95% is a big number.

Hydrogen is well behind battery tech at this point, and may never be feasible. Ev ...


Hydrogen power is silly, and you're a sucker for buying into it.

The most efficient a fuel cell can theoretically be is 83%, but the best they've ever done is 60%. On paper the best hydrolysis can be is the inverse of that, but the most efficient ever performed up to this point is 60% (I read a paper that said trees could be used to push this to 80%, but it's never been done and I didn't fully understand the concept, so I can't comment). That means at the best they've ever been in a laboratory, fuel cells are 36% efficient from the initial energy source to the end user.

Even the least efficient power delivery systems in America get 85% of their energy to the consumer, and current lithium ion tech has 96-99% charge and 99% discharge efficiency. Hell, lead acid batteries have 89-91% charge and 95-99% discharge efficiency. That means hydrogen still isn't even half as good as batteries from the mid-19th century.
 
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