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(Newsweek)   Well, Trump will have a lasting impact on the world: his trade war will cause a global recession   ( newsweek.com) divider line
    More: Followup, trade war, European Union, International trade, World Trade Organization, White House, U.S.-China trade war, White House trade, President Trump  
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1973 clicks; posted to Business » on 06 Mar 2018 at 6:59 AM (32 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2018-03-06 02:08:19 AM  
nobody wants this trade war.  nobody.  even economists who refuse to agree if water is indeed 'wet' are in agreement that this trade war idea is an incredibly horribly terrible idea to do, and its going to hurt the United States far more than it'll hurt anyone else.

so of course Trump is going to do it.  Because f*ck you, that's why.
 
2018-03-06 02:09:01 AM  
Oh, tax cuts and recessions go really well together, right!  Especially with rising interest rates!
 
2018-03-06 02:11:22 AM  

davidphogan: Oh, tax cuts and recessions go really well together, right!  Especially with rising interest rates!


i've tried grilling trumpers for details on why they support Donny's intention to trigger a global trade war, and the responses have universally been either ad hominem attacks, red herrings, or change of subject.  not even the trumpers are bothering to defend this trade war idea.  THAT is how bad it is, when even the trumpers won't defend it.
 
2018-03-06 02:32:28 AM  
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro responded to criticisms by Azevêdo. "A lot of the problem has been the World Trade Organization, which is over 160 countries, and a lot of them simply don't like us and so we don't get good results there,"

Dude, that's what international trade is: a bunch of people--who hate each other so much they drew borders around landmasses to keep each other away--getting those people to put that hatred aside so that one can get some crap the other has and vice versa. What do you expect? Everyone to love each other and hold hands? Are you some kind of liberal hippy?
 
2018-03-06 02:38:18 AM  
I heard somewhere that this is all an attempt to help a special election in Penn so the GOP there can impeach the judges that insisted they redraw their electoral map.

Could just be tinfoil hat stuff, I don't know enough about the situation.
 
2018-03-06 02:42:18 AM  
Trump was elected (kind of) to burn it all down and that's what he's going to do.
 
2018-03-06 02:48:27 AM  

simplicimus: Trump was elected (kind of) to burn it all down and that's what he's going to do.


Fire good!

Trump is more like sewage. Sewage Smell!
 
2018-03-06 02:52:41 AM  

fusillade762: I heard somewhere that this is all an attempt to help a special election in Penn so the GOP there can impeach the judges that insisted they redraw their electoral map.

Could just be tinfoil hat stuff, I don't know enough about the situation.


yup.  that's my local republican party.  don't like the law, just ignore it AND have the judges removed so everyone gets the message that the laws DO NOT apply to the GOP.
 
2018-03-06 03:15:07 AM  

Weaver95: i've tried grilling trumpers for details on why they support Donny's intention to trigger a global trade war, and the responses have universally been either ad hominem attacks, red herrings, or change of subject. not even the trumpers are bothering to defend this trade war idea. THAT is how bad it is, when even the trumpers won't defend it.


The rest of the entire world things that Trump is a moran, therefore stigginit.
 
2018-03-06 03:21:23 AM  

simplicimus: Trump was elected (kind of) to burn it all down and that's what he's going to do.


I wonder how the rich people backing the republican party will feel about trump making all of them a lot less richer than ever before?  now, I don't know a lot of rich people....but I suspect that one idea all rich people share is that its better to be rich than poor.  Donny's actions are going to make a LOT of rich people become poor people (or at the very least - a lot less richer than they were beforehand).
 
2018-03-06 05:44:15 AM  
We are so lucky to be living in a time when the Large Hadron Collider exists.  Because one of these days, Trump might even get to step inside it, you know, while it's running.  They'll fire neutrons, protons, electrons at him.  And one of these days one of these scientists is going to have a HUGE breakthrough as one of these subatomic particles somehow, miraculously,manages to hit his dick.

I mean, when we speak in terms of the size of Trump's penis, we really have to get into relativistic math, like imaginary numbers, square roots of negative one, things like that.  Einstein, Newton, Planck and the like will all need to get together, go into a room, have a meeting, to come up with a theorum,to prove that Trump's dick actually farking exists.

I'm surprised sex with Melania hasn't accidentally triggered small fission reactions.
 
2018-03-06 06:06:55 AM  
I'm so tired of winning.  So very, very tired of winning.
 
2018-03-06 06:17:22 AM  
Godammit America, I was going to just sit in my remote, unimportant little country in a far corner of the world and weather the storm that is the Trump years. But now he's farking it up for the rest of us.

I've been expecting another recession. They come about once a decade, so one is due. But usually it's something governments try to avoid or at list mitigate.
 
2018-03-06 06:26:51 AM  
I'm not an economist, but doesn't a trade war initially limit sales of product? And companies are run on forecasts, yes? So if you forecast fewer sales, you must also forecast lower income. And then you must plan for that lower income by lowering expenditures, yes? That sounds like it would slow down the movement of cash. Or am I missing something?
 
2018-03-06 07:01:33 AM  
It's economic saber rattling.  Nothing more.
 
2018-03-06 07:02:25 AM  
i0.kym-cdn.comView Full Size
 
2018-03-06 07:03:06 AM  
A "trade war" is a guy beating his wife and kids, so his neighbor retaliates by beating his ownwife and kids.

Even the farkers who have suddenly discovered the virtues of free trade because Trump is against it frequently don't seem to get this. Retaliating is as stupid as starting it in the first place.
 
2018-03-06 07:05:12 AM  
Trump runs his mouth nonstop but seldom follows through.  I don't think this time is different.
 
2018-03-06 07:05:33 AM  

Summoner101: [i0.kym-cdn.com image 373x237]


i.imgur.comView Full Size
 
2018-03-06 07:07:02 AM  
I've heard from a reliable and reputable source who has many, many big and beautiful businesses that trade wars are easy-peasy. I do not know what all the hand wringing, teeth gnashing, and rending of garments is all about.
 
2018-03-06 07:10:50 AM  
Who cares what the (((globalists))) think? America will be fine without a single dollar of foreign trade. We'll build a wall around the entire freakin' country and prosper so much that the rest of the world will just be dying to break into Fortress America. We'll be like Wakanda. Well, except for the blackness.
 
2018-03-06 07:13:03 AM  

FatherChaos: I'm so tired of winning.  So very, very tired of winning.


username checks out
 
2018-03-06 07:15:58 AM  

fusillade762: I heard somewhere that this is all an attempt to help a special election in Penn so the GOP there can impeach the judges that insisted they redraw their electoral map.

Could just be tinfoil hat stuff, I don't know enough about the situation.


The special election isn't for the PA state legislature
 
2018-03-06 07:18:21 AM  

TheAlgebraist: Trump runs his mouth nonstop but seldom follows through.  I don't think this time is different.


Congress seems unlikely to approve it. Does he need Congressional approval for this?
 
2018-03-06 07:20:35 AM  

Weaver95: nobody wants this trade war.  nobody.  even economists who refuse to agree if water is indeed 'wet' are in agreement that this trade war idea is an incredibly horribly terrible idea to do, and its going to hurt the United States far more than it'll hurt anyone else.

so of course Trump is going to do it.  Because f*ck you, that's why.


"Oh, so the smarter people with specific knowledge desperately want me to NOT do something? Full speed ahead!"
 
2018-03-06 07:21:22 AM  

fusillade762: I heard somewhere that this is all an attempt to help a special election in Penn so the GOP there can impeach the judges that insisted they redraw their electoral map.

Could just be tinfoil hat stuff, I don't know enough about the situation.


Heard the same theory from my dad. That the whole thing is a ham-fisted attempt to influence a particular election.
 
2018-03-06 07:22:16 AM  

Weaver95: davidphogan: Oh, tax cuts and recessions go really well together, right!  Especially with rising interest rates!

i've tried grilling trumpers for details on why they support Donny's intention to trigger a global trade war, and the responses have universally been either ad hominem attacks, red herrings, or change of subject.  not even the trumpers are bothering to defend this trade war idea.  THAT is how bad it is, when even the trumpers won't defend it.


That's because Trumpanzees DON'T  F*CKING  UNDERSTAND WHAT A TRADE WAR EVEN IS.
 
2018-03-06 07:28:21 AM  

qorkfiend: fusillade762: I heard somewhere that this is all an attempt to help a special election in Penn so the GOP there can impeach the judges that insisted they redraw their electoral map.

Could just be tinfoil hat stuff, I don't know enough about the situation.

The special election isn't for the PA state legislature


Yeah, we're conflating two different things: (1) the race for Tim Murphy's old seat, where Saccone is in a dead heat with Lamb (even though it should have been a gimme for Saccone, as PA-18 was gerrymander to hell by the GOP) and (2) the redrawing of the districts by the State Supreme Court, which, if they go into effect, will hurt the GOP's chances of winning PA-18 next time.  A win by Saccone won't affect the gerrymandering, but the tarrifs on steel may convince some GOP voters to come out for Saccone this time around and would slow this Democratic wave we've been seening in the rest of the country .

So, two different piles of crap from the same elephant.
 
2018-03-06 07:28:43 AM  

Parthenogenetic: Who cares what the (((globalists))) think? America will be fine without a single dollar of foreign trade. We'll build a wall around the entire freakin' country and prosper so much that the rest of the world will just be dying to break into Fortress America. We'll be like Wakanda. Well, except for the blackness.


img.fark.netView Full Size

I'm thinking this (minus the nuclear war hopefully.)
 
2018-03-06 07:30:32 AM  
The lower classes are starting to ask for higher wages, there is low unemployment, and it's hard to find workers. Time to hit the "reset" button to bring those lower classes back in line/drive down wages. The economy looks like crap for a few years and rich people lose a little? Eh, it mostly washes out the new rich upstarts. Besides, the businesses will be bailed out and the CEOs and board members will still get theirs.

It's coming in one way or another. I wonder what new disaster awaits us this next round. Housing is already concentrated in the hands of the rich. What's left for them to steal?
 
2018-03-06 07:31:33 AM  
And when the crashing economy finally hits the bottom in 2021, the newly elected Democratic president will be blamed both for causing it and for not fixing it fast enough.
 
2018-03-06 07:31:52 AM  
Anyone been watching Trump's portfolio to see what he's been trading recently? I'm fairly sure Members of Congress and people holding positions in the Executive branch can't be charged with insider trading by the SEC, but if his idiotic proclamations are putting US national security at risk so Donnie can make dollars, then it's one more item for the articles of impeachment.
 
2018-03-06 07:34:13 AM  
Well, on the bright side of that:

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-03-06 07:36:25 AM  

itcamefromschenectady: A "trade war" is a guy beating his wife and kids, so his neighbor retaliates by beating his ownwife and kids.

Even the farkers who have suddenly discovered the virtues of free trade because Trump is against it frequently don't seem to get this. Retaliating is as stupid as starting it in the first place.


Most people realized the, "If you wouldn't fight back, there wouldn't even BE a problem here!" defense to aggression was played out in 1939, but no, you keep on doing you, slugger.
 
2018-03-06 07:43:13 AM  
He'll pull a Nunberg and back off
 
2018-03-06 07:47:44 AM  

Weaver95: not even the trumpers are bothering to defend this trade war idea.


Trumpers lack the intelligence to tell right from wrong, much less understand economics.
 
2018-03-06 07:58:28 AM  
The WTO was set up by the US and it's rules were geared to benefit it. Still we biatch and main that world trade is being unfair to America. I remember when commie leftist from Cuba and Latin America spoke out against a global system of trade and loans making them poor. They'd point out how the US would get rich at their expense and the Americans would laugh it up saying that wealth creation is not a zero sum game. That just because America is rich, it wasn't sucking their wealth and that poor countries should just create wealth to stop being poor. It's pretty pathetic that now we have Americans complaining that their wealth is being sucked away by other countries.
 
2018-03-06 07:59:02 AM  

koder: White House trade adviser Peter Navarro responded to criticisms by Azevêdo. "A lot of the problem has been the World Trade Organization, which is over 160 countries, and a lot of them simply don't like us and so we don't get good results there,"

Dude, that's what international trade is: a bunch of people--who hate each other so much they drew borders around landmasses to keep each other away--getting those people to put that hatred aside so that one can get some crap the other has and vice versa. What do you expect? Everyone to love each other and hold hands? Are you some kind of liberal hippy?


Well ish... Global trade is more like the sociopaths which run various countries who had convinced their people to hate each other so aforementioned sociopaths could enrich themselves via violence decided that they would rather enrich themselves via theft, less risk that way.

Arguably better for us plebs depending on your country, folks in the Democratic Republic of Congo probably can't tell the difference between total war and global trade, since global demand for resources has helped fuel warlords and slavery.
 
2018-03-06 08:00:35 AM  
"A lot of the problem has been the World Trade Organization, which is over 160 countries, and a lot of them simply don't like us and so we don't get good results there"

... said Navarro, the guy who wants to rip up all our trade treaties, putting all our trade under WTO rules.
 
2018-03-06 08:07:11 AM  

Weaver95: nobody wants this trade war.  nobody.  even economists who refuse to agree if water is indeed 'wet' are in agreement that this trade war idea is an incredibly horribly terrible idea to do, and its going to hurt the United States far more than it'll hurt anyone else.

so of course Trump is going to do it.  Because f*ck you, that's why.


But I've seen plenty op-eds by non-economists saying it's fine and won't cause a trade war and will be great for the country and Trump 2020 and MAGA.

Surely their uninformed political opinions are just as valid as the educated opinion of so called 'expert economists'? Even more so - look how wrong experts were about Trump and Clinton.

So clearly economists are the real collusion.
 
2018-03-06 08:14:21 AM  

August11: I'm not an economist, but doesn't a trade war initially limit sales of product? And companies are run on forecasts, yes? So if you forecast fewer sales, you must also forecast lower income. And then you must plan for that lower income by lowering expenditures, yes? That sounds like it would slow down the movement of cash. Or am I missing something?


Well most of the goods sold in the US or by US companies have large quantities of internationally sourced components, hell even the F-35 can't escape using Chinese electronics.

The idea is since we have a trade defecit that tarrifing goods makes it more desirable to produce goods here to be consumed here than produced elsewhere. This works for Germany, Japan, China, South Korea and to an extent most countries that are large enough to support a manufacturing base. They have trade barriers to protect domestic industry and support local business, and it works provided your country is large enough to support a manufacturing base, so Germany yes, Micronesia not so much. The US has those too but for the most part we are dumb about them and do them on an adhoc basis with no sense of the larger picture or any guiding policy.

This will hit Wall Street profits will go down...slightly, stocks will go down alot (at least initially), the average consumer won't see much change. We've had a 24% tariff on Canadian softwoods for years and Canada hasn't closed thier borders and recalled their ambassador yet.

This wouldn't have been such an issue if it wasn't for Trump that farkwit just has to be an asshole about everything. He's antagonizing other countries and galvanizing them to work together to spite him (and believe me I get it)...which will not end well, but that's to to him being insufferable not the tariffs.
 
2018-03-06 08:14:22 AM  

Fireproof: TheAlgebraist: Trump runs his mouth nonstop but seldom follows through.  I don't think this time is different.

Congress seems unlikely to approve it. Does he need Congressional approval for this?


No.*

*Maybe. Congress did delegate this power, but only for "national security" purposes, so Trump may have shot himself in the foot when he said it's to force concessions on NAFTA from Canada and Mexico.
 
2018-03-06 08:16:53 AM  
That's strange.
The United States used GATT and the WTO to successfully win cases against countries who put up restrictive tariffs on products like alcohol and against countries who dumped products into the market. So much for the WTO being against the US.
Didn't he read anything related to international trade law?
 
2018-03-06 08:25:47 AM  

davidphogan: Oh, tax cuts and recessions go really well together, right!  Especially with rising interest rates!


Cutting taxes is a fine thing to do AFTER the recession starts (along with increasing government spending).  But cutting taxes during a period of strong economic growth is insanely idiotic.  It needlessly limits your options for when the next recession happens.  At least raising interest rates now, while we still can, is a good idea so that we can drop them again when the recession comes----but they're probably not rising fast enough to get high enough to make a difference, especially if Trump accelerates the coming of the next recession.
 
2018-03-06 08:26:50 AM  
The powers that be need this bubble to pop so they cash in and get back in at the bottom. Wash, rinse, repeat. Turns out to be a massive wealth transfer.
 
2018-03-06 08:33:33 AM  
No one caught the piece last night about how Trump and Carl Icahn talked.  Shortly after Icahn dumped $30M of stock which would plummet if tariffs were introduced. A handful of days later, tariffs are introduced.
 
2018-03-06 08:37:39 AM  

eyeq360: That's strange.
The United States used GATT and the WTO to successfully win cases against countries who put up restrictive tariffs on products like alcohol and against countries who dumped products into the market. So much for the WTO being against the US.
Didn't he read anything related to international trade law?

 
2018-03-06 08:42:38 AM  

itcamefromschenectady: A "trade war" is a guy beating his wife and kids, so his neighbor retaliates by beating his ownwife and kids.

Even the farkers who have suddenly discovered the virtues of free trade because Trump is against it frequently don't seem to get this. Retaliating is as stupid as starting it in the first place.


How dare other countries defend themselves when attacked!
 
2018-03-06 08:44:02 AM  

UNC_Samurai: eyeq360: That's strange.
The United States used GATT and the WTO to successfully win cases against countries who put up restrictive tariffs on products like alcohol and against countries who dumped products into the market. So much for the WTO being against the US.
Didn't he read anything related to international trade law?


I could put in verbs at random and it will lead to an answer that implies complete idiocy on the part of anyone in the Trump Administration.
 
2018-03-06 08:48:55 AM  

Weaver95: nobody wants this trade war.  nobody.  even economists who refuse to agree if water is indeed 'wet' are in agreement that this trade war idea is an incredibly horribly terrible idea to do, and its going to hurt the United States far more than it'll hurt anyone else.

so of course Trump is going to do it.  Because f*ck you, that's why.


That's what I don't understand, everyone seems to be against this, so why isn't Trump doing it?  Is this a legitimate attempt to appease middle America by trying to build up US Steel and Aluminium?
 
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