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(CBS New York)   Ready or not NYC, here comes your measles outbreak, compliments of an Aussie tourist   ( newyork.cbslocal.com) divider line
    More: Sick, New York, New York City, Manhattan, Hatfield Lane, Metropolitan Museum, La Quinta Inn, Metropolitan Museum of Art, Watchtower Educational Center  
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2820 clicks; posted to Main » on 24 Feb 2018 at 11:24 PM (21 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



31 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2018-02-24 08:26:47 PM  
Are JWs antivaxxers?
 
2018-02-24 08:45:43 PM  

swaniefrmreddeer: Are JWs antivaxxers?


No, biggest risk group in the area is probably going top be the sects of orthodox Jews, which are.
 
2018-02-24 10:37:09 PM  

2xhelix: swaniefrmreddeer: Are JWs antivaxxers?

No, biggest risk group in the area is probably going top be the sects of orthodox Jews, which are.


I figure the Australian tourist was.
Watchtower Educational Center, 100 Watchtower Drive, Patterson, NY, between 12:30 p.m. - 6:30 p.m. on February 19, 2018.
 
2018-02-24 11:08:38 PM  
That's not a measles outbreak.
Now THAT'S a measles outbreak

/crikey!
 
2018-02-24 11:27:53 PM  
I wonder if he was in contact with the guy who caused this outbreak.

/work in a hospital in the affected area
//no measles cases... yet
///VACCINATE YOUR farkING KIDS
 
2018-02-24 11:31:24 PM  
First chlamydia, now this!

img.fark.netView Full Size

STAY AWAY FROM THESE NASTY BEARS
 
2018-02-24 11:32:21 PM  
I was part of the NYS upstate outbreak of 1990, and I've had the MMR booster, so I should be fine.
 
2018-02-24 11:32:39 PM  
Was this idiot trying to spread it? Of course, it will spread because the anti vaxers think it's better to suffer with Measeles then get the shot.
I had the shot, but still I got them at 14. It was a really rough 2 weeks. It turns out that back when I was a baby, they were trying out the dead virus instead of the live one.
 
2018-02-24 11:33:27 PM  

2xhelix: swaniefrmreddeer: Are JWs antivaxxers?

No, biggest risk group in the area is probably going top be the sects of orthodox Jews, which are.


I remember seeing a neat step by step spread of one of the previous big measles outbreaks in NYC.  Something like a guy coughed in an elevator and a few hours later an orthodox Jew rode the elevator, and then infected everyone else.

/measles is serious business, it lingers in the air for a long time
 
2018-02-24 11:37:09 PM  
Friggin Austrians.  Unleashed Hitler on the world too.
 
2018-02-24 11:41:19 PM  
People are saying Australian Measles has a 95% fatality rate.
 
2018-02-24 11:46:05 PM  

RogermcAllen: 2xhelix: swaniefrmreddeer: Are JWs antivaxxers?

No, biggest risk group in the area is probably going top be the sects of orthodox Jews, which are.

I remember seeing a neat step by step spread of one of the previous big measles outbreaks in NYC.  Something like a guy coughed in an elevator and a few hours later an orthodox Jew rode the elevator, and then infected everyone else.

/measles is serious business, it lingers in the air for a long time


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2018-02-24 11:55:33 PM  
German measles, right?
 
2018-02-25 12:32:49 AM  

daffy: Was this idiot trying to spread it? Of course, it will spread because the anti vaxers think it's better to suffer with Measeles then get the shot.
I had the shot, but still I got them at 14. It was a really rough 2 weeks. It turns out that back when I was a baby, they were trying out the dead virus instead of the live one.


How long ago with 14 for you?
 
2018-02-25 12:41:12 AM  

farkyorefeelings: People are saying Australian Measles has a 95% fatality rate.


Everything in Australia has a 95% fatality rate.
 
2018-02-25 12:56:43 AM  
Crikey!
 
2018-02-25 01:12:25 AM  

Dr gLove: farkyorefeelings: People are saying Australian Measles has a 95% fatality rate.

Everything in Australia has a 95% fatality rate.


I could've sworn that the fatality rate from life itself was 100%.
 
2018-02-25 01:43:11 AM  
Fair Dinkum from a Jehovah's Nitwit
 
2018-02-25 02:06:05 AM  

daffy: Was this idiot trying to spread it? Of course, it will spread because the anti vaxers think it's better to suffer with Measeles then get the shot.
I had the shot, but still I got them at 14. It was a really rough 2 weeks. It turns out that back when I was a baby, they were trying out the dead virus instead of the live one.


No. The Measles vaccine is about 93% effective in one dose, 97% effective in 2 doses (source, CDC). The problem is that the measles is extremely virulent, and the average person infected will expose an additional 12-18 people.

Doing some simple math, 0.97^12 is about 70%, so 30% of the time, of those 12 people who get exposed, one of them will be susceptible to the measles. Even with the assumption that they have all had two doses.
 
2018-02-25 02:06:08 AM  
It's a good thing there aren't too many people in NYC, and that they don't ever mass together in crowded closed places.

/// Just had an eight-day (measle-less) vacation in NYC. We had a blast, although we agreed that our next visit will not be in February.
 
2018-02-25 02:20:11 AM  

Misch: daffy: Was this idiot trying to spread it? Of course, it will spread because the anti vaxers think it's better to suffer with Measeles then get the shot.
I had the shot, but still I got them at 14. It was a really rough 2 weeks. It turns out that back when I was a baby, they were trying out the dead virus instead of the live one.

No. The Measles vaccine is about 93% effective in one dose, 97% effective in 2 doses (source, CDC). The problem is that the measles is extremely virulent, and the average person infected will expose an additional 12-18 people.

Doing some simple math, 0.97^12 is about 70%, so 30% of the time, of those 12 people who get exposed, one of them will be susceptible to the measles. Even with the assumption that they have all had two doses.


At what age are they getting the the shots these days? I'm guessing the highest at-risk group might be infants too young to have been vaccinated.
 
2018-02-25 05:22:03 AM  

cyberspacedout: Misch: daffy: Was this idiot trying to spread it? Of course, it will spread because the anti vaxers think it's better to suffer with Measeles then get the shot.
I had the shot, but still I got them at 14. It was a really rough 2 weeks. It turns out that back when I was a baby, they were trying out the dead virus instead of the live one.

No. The Measles vaccine is about 93% effective in one dose, 97% effective in 2 doses (source, CDC). The problem is that the measles is extremely virulent, and the average person infected will expose an additional 12-18 people.

Doing some simple math, 0.97^12 is about 70%, so 30% of the time, of those 12 people who get exposed, one of them will be susceptible to the measles. Even with the assumption that they have all had two doses.

At what age are they getting the the shots these days? I'm guessing the highest at-risk group might be infants too young to have been vaccinated.


You also have anyone who's immunocompromised (e.g. cancer patients, anyone who's had an organ transplant, people who got the vaccine but it didn't "take") in that group. In Australia, kids get the first dose at 12 months and a second one at 18 months due to a single dose only being 95% effective.

I did have one patient who'd had to have their spleen taken out, and ended up needing all of their vaccines again.
 
2018-02-25 08:38:14 AM  
As a little kid I had the measles, the German measles, chicken pox, and the mumps.  I don't remember any as very eventful but the school days off. I ended up getting vaccinated for all but the chicken pox as well because mom and dad were pro-vaxxers and it was covered by their heath plan.

Now I've had shingles vaccine just in case, to take care of the chicken pox.
 
2018-02-25 09:05:25 AM  
At least they didn't bring a box of wildlife.  That would have been way more dangerous and frightening.
 
2018-02-25 09:57:01 AM  
If we'd, I dunno, KEEP CURRENT ON OUR DAMN VACCINATIONS AND MAKE SURE OUR CHILDREN WERE ALSO CURRENT then a sick international visitor wouldn't really be such a threat to public health. Just a thought.
 
2018-02-25 10:42:56 AM  

2xhelix: swaniefrmreddeer: Are JWs antivaxxers?

No, biggest risk group in the area is probably going top be the sects of orthodox Jews, which are.


Oooh, so, your particular version of God gets quite irate if you have a vaccination?  Gotta get YOUR brownie points for him - the hell that other suffer because of it.

Face it, your God is a dumbass.
 
2018-02-25 11:09:59 AM  

cyberspacedout: Misch: daffy: Was this idiot trying to spread it? Of course, it will spread because the anti vaxers think it's better to suffer with Measeles then get the shot.
I had the shot, but still I got them at 14. It was a really rough 2 weeks. It turns out that back when I was a baby, they were trying out the dead virus instead of the live one.

No. The Measles vaccine is about 93% effective in one dose, 97% effective in 2 doses (source, CDC). The problem is that the measles is extremely virulent, and the average person infected will expose an additional 12-18 people.

Doing some simple math, 0.97^12 is about 70%, so 30% of the time, of those 12 people who get exposed, one of them will be susceptible to the measles. Even with the assumption that they have all had two doses.

At what age are they getting the the shots these days? I'm guessing the highest at-risk group might be infants too young to have been vaccinated.


CDC says first dose at 12-15 months, second dose at 4-6 years. Source.
 
2018-02-25 12:12:36 PM  
Also from Australia:

img.fark.netView Full Size


I can honestly say I've never seen an author more deserving of a good KHITBASH.

img.fark.netView Full Size


I think some Amazon reviewers agree.

img.fark.netView Full Size

img.fark.netView Full Size

img.fark.netView Full Size

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-25 01:12:13 PM  
In Australian lingo, they're known as whatsthesespotsies.
 
2018-02-26 02:16:49 AM  

Misch: daffy: Was this idiot trying to spread it? Of course, it will spread because the anti vaxers think it's better to suffer with Measeles then get the shot.
I had the shot, but still I got them at 14. It was a really rough 2 weeks. It turns out that back when I was a baby, they were trying out the dead virus instead of the live one.

No. The Measles vaccine is about 93% effective in one dose, 97% effective in 2 doses (source, CDC). The problem is that the measles is extremely virulent, and the average person infected will expose an additional 12-18 people.

Doing some simple math, 0.97^12 is about 70%, so 30% of the time, of those 12 people who get exposed, one of them will be susceptible to the measles. Even with the assumption that they have all had two doses.


Erm, you don't raise it to the power, you multiply it. Coverage (95%) times effectiveness (97%) times R0 (12-18). So not so bad, usually. However R0 is dependent on contact rates... so a tourist in a densely populated city probably is transmitting more than a person sitting at home in a small city.
 
2018-02-26 06:43:40 AM  

lepidoptera: Misch: daffy: Was this idiot trying to spread it? Of course, it will spread because the anti vaxers think it's better to suffer with Measeles then get the shot.
I had the shot, but still I got them at 14. It was a really rough 2 weeks. It turns out that back when I was a baby, they were trying out the dead virus instead of the live one.

No. The Measles vaccine is about 93% effective in one dose, 97% effective in 2 doses (source, CDC). The problem is that the measles is extremely virulent, and the average person infected will expose an additional 12-18 people.

Doing some simple math, 0.97^12 is about 70%, so 30% of the time, of those 12 people who get exposed, one of them will be susceptible to the measles. Even with the assumption that they have all had two doses.

Erm, you don't raise it to the power, you multiply it. Coverage (95%) times effectiveness (97%) times R0 (12-18). So not so bad, usually. However R0 is dependent on contact rates... so a tourist in a densely populated city probably is transmitting more than a person sitting at home in a small city.


No, it's multiplucation. What I said wrong is that the 30% represents at least one person being exposed who is susceptible despite a double dose of the vaccine.

Think of flipping a coin and you need every coin to come up heads. For one coin flip it is a 50% chance. For two coin flips, it is 25% chance both come up heads (0.5 * 0.5). For three coin flips it is 12.5% (0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5), etc...

In this case the math is the same, but there is a 97 percent chance the coin comes up heads.

I agree with you that the exposure rate is impacted by people going to densely populated areas. That's why the exposure was cited as an average. Here's an article that discusses Basic reproduction number.

If you go with the high-end estimate of 18 people exposed, you're at roughly 42% chance of someone getting the measles. 23 people exposed gets you to the 50% marker.
 
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