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(KQED San Francisco)   California's other drought: a major earthquake is long overdue   ( ww2.kqed.org) divider line
    More: PSA, 1906 San Francisco earthquake, Earthquake, San Andreas Fault, California, San Francisco earthquake, major earthquake, San Francisco, California Earthquake Rupture  
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2318 clicks; posted to Main » on 13 Feb 2018 at 4:02 AM (22 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2018-02-13 03:19:29 AM  
I thought pretty much the entire western US is overdue?
 
2018-02-13 03:37:14 AM  
DROUGHTQUAKE!
 
2018-02-13 04:15:34 AM  
Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.
 
2018-02-13 04:22:59 AM  

gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.


Consult a dictionary.
 
2018-02-13 04:40:28 AM  

fusillade762: DROUGHTQUAKE!

How did you know? That's going to be the next big movie by the producers of Sharknado.
 
2018-02-13 04:41:51 AM  

wademh: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

Consult a dictionary.


There is no factual basis for suggesting a quake is 'due' or expected at or by a given date, and therefore even less basis for suggesting one is 'overdue', other than ensuring that your report gets in the headlines. A huge quake could happen in an entirely different location around the pacific at any time. There might not be a quake of large magnitude in California in our lifetimes, or there could be one tomorrow.

Saying that a quake is a risk people should take seriously and prepare for in the entire quake-prone region (which is vast), especially on known faults, does make sense. But we would not be discussing that article I guess.

I live on an old volcano rim. I see a huge cone less than a thousand years old from my bedroom window. One of our cities was devastated by a very large, and unpredicted, quake just a few years ago. Calm sensible discussion of the science and preparedness helps. Hyperbolic nonsense does not.
 
2018-02-13 04:43:35 AM  
Major earthquakes thus typically occur with no immediate warning whatsoever, ...

Animals can sometimes sense an oncoming earthquake, so if your cat starts acting weird... no, that's not a good example.
 
2018-02-13 04:49:11 AM  
When you are talking geological time, sure we may have gone longer than average between major earthquakes, but in human time, no where near.
 
2018-02-13 04:53:48 AM  

gaspode: wademh: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

Consult a dictionary.

There is no factual basis for suggesting a quake is 'due' or expected at or by a given date, and therefore even less basis for suggesting one is 'overdue', other than ensuring that your report gets in the headlines. A huge quake could happen in an entirely different location around the pacific at any time. There might not be a quake of large magnitude in California in our lifetimes, or there could be one tomorrow.

Saying that a quake is a risk people should take seriously and prepare for in the entire quake-prone region (which is vast), especially on known faults, does make sense. But we would not be discussing that article I guess.

I live on an old volcano rim. I see a huge cone less than a thousand years old from my bedroom window. One of our cities was devastated by a very large, and unpredicted, quake just a few years ago. Calm sensible discussion of the science and preparedness helps. Hyperbolic nonsense does not.


You are wrong. The factual basis to expect an earthquake is a combination of history and measurement. One can examine the historical record and find how long it usually is between earthquakes and determine probabilities. You can do the same thing with radioactive decay. When the probability of an event having occurred is much larger than it not having occurred, it is overdue. The definition of overdue is not having occurred by the expected time. It is possible that the probabilistic nature of that expectation discomforts you because you just don't usually realize that you're dealing with probabilities all the time. The ETA for a train arrival is just a probability. The fact that somebody wrote it down on a schedule doesn't change the fact that it is, in essence, a probability. The probability of an earthquake is a scientific thing, based both on history along a given fault, measurement of where movement has and hasn't occurred, calculation of stresses built up by lack of local movement, and a knowledge of the stress tolerances of the locked strata.
You're welcome.
 
2018-02-13 05:09:30 AM  
Tool - Ænema [uncut version - hq - fullscreen]
Youtube uCEeAn6_QJo
 
2018-02-13 05:27:36 AM  

wademh: gaspode: wademh: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

Consult a dictionary.

There is no factual basis for suggesting a quake is 'due' or expected at or by a given date, and therefore even less basis for suggesting one is 'overdue', other than ensuring that your report gets in the headlines. A huge quake could happen in an entirely different location around the pacific at any time. There might not be a quake of large magnitude in California in our lifetimes, or there could be one tomorrow.

Saying that a quake is a risk people should take seriously and prepare for in the entire quake-prone region (which is vast), especially on known faults, does make sense. But we would not be discussing that article I guess.

I live on an old volcano rim. I see a huge cone less than a thousand years old from my bedroom window. One of our cities was devastated by a very large, and unpredicted, quake just a few years ago. Calm sensible discussion of the science and preparedness helps. Hyperbolic nonsense does not.

You are wrong. The factual basis to expect an earthquake is a combination of history and measurement. One can examine the historical record and find how long it usually is between earthquakes and determine probabilities. You can do the same thing with radioactive decay. When the probability of an event having occurred is much larger than it not having occurred, it is overdue. The definition of overdue is not having occurred by the expected time. It is possible that the probabilistic nature of that expectation discomforts you because you just don't usually realize that you're dealing with probabilities all the time. The ETA for a train arrival is just a probability. The fact that somebody wrote it down on a schedule doesn't change the fact that it is, in essence, a probability. The probability of an earthquake is a scientific thing, based both on history along a given fault, measurement of where movement has and hasn't occurred, calculation of stresses built up by lack of local movement, and a knowledge of the stress tolerances of the locked strata.
You're welcome.


I read this in the voice of Jeff Goldblum.
 
2018-02-13 05:45:05 AM  
The Big One has been expected as far back as I can remember.

/knowing how governments 'works', even California, I'm guessing not much has been prepared for something of this level
 
2018-02-13 05:45:24 AM  

fusillade762: DROUGHTQUAKE!


"A Michael Bay film. In theaters everywhere July 2018."
 
2018-02-13 05:49:33 AM  
August11:  I read this in the voice of Jeff Goldblum.

blogs.pjstar.comView Full Size
 
2018-02-13 05:50:43 AM  

gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.


We ARE due, actually. Not California specifically, but 2018 is supposed to be a bad year for the world in general.

"Upsurge in big earthquakes predicted for 2018 as Earth rotation slows

Scientists say number of severe quakes is likely to rise strongly next year because of a periodic slowing of the Earth's rotation"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/201​7​/nov/18/2018-set-to-be-year-of-big-ear​thquakes
 
2018-02-13 05:55:06 AM  
Honest question: When the earthquake happens, will Fark be full of jerks saying we shouldn't help them rebuild because hey, they should have known better than to live there? Because that's what happened after Katrina. Hell, even politicians like the illustrious Santorum and Hastert said it was our fault for living in an area prone to storms.
 
2018-02-13 06:01:43 AM  

dickfreckle: Honest question: When the earthquake happens, will Fark be full of jerks saying we shouldn't help them rebuild because hey, they should have known better than to live there? Because that's what happened after Katrina. Hell, even politicians like the illustrious Santorum and Hastert said it was our fault for living in an area prone to storms.


Is this a rhetorical question? Of course there will be, it'll be the same red state morons that crapped on NY after Sandy.
 
2018-02-13 06:01:52 AM  

Resident Muslim: The Big One has been expected as far back as I can remember.

/knowing how governments 'works', even California, I'm guessing not much has been prepared for something of this level


There are pretty good regulations in place and occasional inspections to help with some of the more obvious things. Hot water heaters need to be securely strapped to the wall so that they don't rock off and pull out a gas line. Lots of other types of furniture are also required to be strapped to walls, but of course what people do in their own homes can't really be controlled. (essentially, any tall free standing item ought to have an anchor strap, tall boy dressers, china cabinets, etc.) Lots of people have a old wrench near the gas shut off value that they put there years and years ago, and has probably rusted, and that they have perhaps forgot about. Shelving in labs needs to have a bar out front to reduce the chance of things sliding off and creating a untoward freshman chemistry experiment. People get public service messages about keeping a supply of emergency fresh water, gallon jugs or such that should be renewed about once a year (often stored in a garage with of course will be destroyed so you can't get to it). They try. Schools raise the issue with kids who come home and bug their parents who replace the wrench, stash some water, and then five years later the wrench is forgotten again and the water is tossed out as clutter.
Hayward fault will be nasty when it goes.
 
2018-02-13 06:08:11 AM  

dickfreckle: Honest question: When the earthquake happens, will Fark be full of jerks


Why would that day be different from all the rest?
 
2018-02-13 06:28:12 AM  

ComaToast: Major earthquakes thus typically occur with no immediate warning whatsoever, ...

Animals can sometimes sense an oncoming earthquake, so if your cat starts acting weird... no, that's not a good example.


My dog is useless at this.  I've experienced noticeable shaking from two earthquakes, the first of which was a moment magnitude 5.6 with an epicenter just over 10 miles away.  It felt like a heavy truck passing outside hit a massive bump, so the building jolted a bit, and then wobbled as if it was on a waterbed for about 20 seconds.  There was no damage.  I even had an orange on the desk next to me and it didn't move at all.  The dog was completely oblivious to this impending earthquake.  The initial jolt woke her up and then she decided she didn't like this weird waterbed world at all and hid beneath my chair until I made it stop.  Which I did.

The second one was much weaker and farther away, with a magnitude of 4.4 about 25 miles away.  That one just felt like somebody was shaking the couch I was sitting on for about 10 seconds, as a joke.  Again the dog was oblivious.
 
2018-02-13 06:30:26 AM  

Resident Muslim: The Big One has been expected as far back as I can remember.

/knowing how governments 'works', even California, I'm guessing not much has been prepared for something of this level


Hey now, didn't they replace the old bay bridge that was going to fall over in a big earthquake with a new bay bridge which will also fall over in a big earthquake due to shoddy construction and corrosion of steel reinforcements in the supports?
 
2018-02-13 06:33:30 AM  

indifference_engine: Resident Muslim: The Big One has been expected as far back as I can remember.

/knowing how governments 'works', even California, I'm guessing not much has been prepared for something of this level

Hey now, didn't they replace the old bay bridge that was going to fall over in a big earthquake with a new bay bridge which will also fall over in a big earthquake due to shoddy construction and corrosion of steel reinforcements in the supports?


https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/articl​e​/Plague-of-problems-puts-Bay-Bridge-se​ismic-safety-6253577.php
 
2018-02-13 06:34:37 AM  

itcamefromschenectady: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

We ARE due, actually. Not California specifically, but 2018 is supposed to be a bad year for the world in general.

"Upsurge in big earthquakes predicted for 2018 as Earth rotation slows

Scientists say number of severe quakes is likely to rise strongly next year because of a periodic slowing of the Earth's rotation"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017​/nov/18/2018-set-to-be-year-of-big-ear​thquakes


Just you wait and see what happens when the earth flips on its axis!
 
2018-02-13 06:40:18 AM  

wademh: Hot water heaters need to be securely strapped to the wall so that they don't rock off and pull out a gas line


Which won't really help if your house isn't bolted to the foundation, because the whole building will just slide, breaking utility lines as it goes.  This link is about raised foundations with crawlspaces but the principle applies to slab foundations as well (without the bracing).  https://www.earthquakeauth​ority.com/ea​rthquake-risk-preparedness/strengthen-​your-home-seismic-retrofitting

Getting an HOA to do this is like pulling teeth...
 
2018-02-13 06:48:49 AM  
Taiwan was long overdue for a major quake, so I'm getting a kick out of this thread.
 
2018-02-13 06:51:37 AM  

indifference_engine: ComaToast: Major earthquakes thus typically occur with no immediate warning whatsoever, ...

Animals can sometimes sense an oncoming earthquake, so if your cat starts acting weird... no, that's not a good example.

My dog is useless at this.  I've experienced noticeable shaking from two earthquakes, the first of which was a moment magnitude 5.6 with an epicenter just over 10 miles away.  It felt like a heavy truck passing outside hit a massive bump, so the building jolted a bit, and then wobbled as if it was on a waterbed for about 20 seconds.  There was no damage.  I even had an orange on the desk next to me and it didn't move at all.  The dog was completely oblivious to this impending earthquake.  The initial jolt woke her up and then she decided she didn't like this weird waterbed world at all and hid beneath my chair until I made it stop.  Which I did.

The second one was much weaker and farther away, with a magnitude of 4.4 about 25 miles away.  That one just felt like somebody was shaking the couch I was sitting on for about 10 seconds, as a joke.  Again the dog was oblivious.


I like your dog.
 
2018-02-13 07:03:20 AM  

Buttknuckle: indifference_engine: ComaToast: Major earthquakes thus typically occur with no immediate warning whatsoever, ...

Animals can sometimes sense an oncoming earthquake, so if your cat starts acting weird... no, that's not a good example.

My dog is useless at this.  I've experienced noticeable shaking from two earthquakes, the first of which was a moment magnitude 5.6 with an epicenter just over 10 miles away.  It felt like a heavy truck passing outside hit a massive bump, so the building jolted a bit, and then wobbled as if it was on a waterbed for about 20 seconds.  There was no damage.  I even had an orange on the desk next to me and it didn't move at all.  The dog was completely oblivious to this impending earthquake.  The initial jolt woke her up and then she decided she didn't like this weird waterbed world at all and hid beneath my chair until I made it stop.  Which I did.

The second one was much weaker and farther away, with a magnitude of 4.4 about 25 miles away.  That one just felt like somebody was shaking the couch I was sitting on for about 10 seconds, as a joke.  Again the dog was oblivious.

I like your dog.


Heh, me too.  I just don't know how to break it to her that I can't actually control earthquakes (or thunderstorms, which she also hates).  Mostly because she only understands a few words of English.

On a different note, earthquakes are pretty fascinating.  As the compression waves move through the ground different materials respond differently, as you can see in this USGS photo of a storm sewer grate after the 1989 Loma Prieta quake.  The concrete around the grate deformed and rebounded, but the metal grate, being metal, was permanently bent.

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-13 07:08:13 AM  

wademh: Resident Muslim: The Big One has been expected as far back as I can remember.

/knowing how governments 'works', even California, I'm guessing not much has been prepared for something of this level

There are pretty good regulations in place and occasional inspections to help with some of the more obvious things. Hot water heaters need to be securely strapped to the wall so that they don't rock off and pull out a gas line. Lots of other types of furniture are also required to be strapped to walls, but of course what people do in their own homes can't really be controlled. (essentially, any tall free standing item ought to have an anchor strap, tall boy dressers, china cabinets, etc.) Lots of people have a old wrench near the gas shut off value that they put there years and years ago, and has probably rusted, and that they have perhaps forgot about. Shelving in labs needs to have a bar out front to reduce the chance of things sliding off and creating a untoward freshman chemistry experiment. People get public service messages about keeping a supply of emergency fresh water, gallon jugs or such that should be renewed about once a year (often stored in a garage with of course will be destroyed so you can't get to it). They try. Schools raise the issue with kids who come home and bug their parents who replace the wrench, stash some water, and then five years later the wrench is forgotten again and the water is tossed out as clutter.
Hayward fault will be nasty when it goes.


Thanks for the detailed post.
Those things will last people, what, two days?
I'm asking about the government side.
We saw what happened in New Orleans.
Now imagine that happening to ALL the cities on the west coast AT THE SAME TIME.
 
2018-02-13 07:14:17 AM  
Dueness only applies to non-independent events and a causation has occurred but the effect hasn't. This may be the case but never in the way it's reported "too many years" - years and earthquakes are unrelated.

Simple example of a coin toss. They're independent events so even if you get 50 heads in a row you are not "due" for tails. That's called the gamblers fallacy.
 
2018-02-13 07:18:52 AM  

Resident Muslim: wademh: Resident Muslim: The Big One has been expected as far back as I can remember.

/knowing how governments 'works', even California, I'm guessing not much has been prepared for something of this level

There are pretty good regulations in place and occasional inspections to help with some of the more obvious things. Hot water heaters need to be securely strapped to the wall so that they don't rock off and pull out a gas line. Lots of other types of furniture are also required to be strapped to walls, but of course what people do in their own homes can't really be controlled. (essentially, any tall free standing item ought to have an anchor strap, tall boy dressers, china cabinets, etc.) Lots of people have a old wrench near the gas shut off value that they put there years and years ago, and has probably rusted, and that they have perhaps forgot about. Shelving in labs needs to have a bar out front to reduce the chance of things sliding off and creating a untoward freshman chemistry experiment. People get public service messages about keeping a supply of emergency fresh water, gallon jugs or such that should be renewed about once a year (often stored in a garage with of course will be destroyed so you can't get to it). They try. Schools raise the issue with kids who come home and bug their parents who replace the wrench, stash some water, and then five years later the wrench is forgotten again and the water is tossed out as clutter.
Hayward fault will be nasty when it goes.

Thanks for the detailed post.
Those things will last people, what, two days?
I'm asking about the government side.
We saw what happened in New Orleans.
Now imagine that happening to ALL the cities on the west coast AT THE SAME TIME.


That's not how earthquakes work.  If there was some coordinated attack on the west coast then maybe.
 
2018-02-13 07:23:09 AM  

TheDirtyNacho: Dueness only applies to non-independent events and a causation has occurred but the effect hasn't. This may be the case but never in the way it's reported "too many years" - years and earthquakes are unrelated.

Simple example of a coin toss. They're independent events so even if you get 50 heads in a row you are not "due" for tails. That's called the gamblers fallacy.


It's a bit of a stretch to call earthquakes statistically independent events.  They almost always happen along fault lines, some fault lines are more active than others, and we have some idea of the underlying cause.  Plate tectonics being relatively stable over the course of millennia + built up stress along the fault at any point implies a higher probability of an earthquake at that point.  The problem is that we don't have a good way to measure stress at any given point.
 
2018-02-13 07:27:35 AM  

indifference_engine: itcamefromschenectady: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

We ARE due, actually. Not California specifically, but 2018 is supposed to be a bad year for the world in general.

"Upsurge in big earthquakes predicted for 2018 as Earth rotation slows

Scientists say number of severe quakes is likely to rise strongly next year because of a periodic slowing of the Earth's rotation"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017​/nov/18/2018-set-to-be-year-of-big-ear​thquakes

Just you wait and see what happens when the earth flips on its axis!


It's SCIENCE. I don't know why people don't believe this - it's not some Weekly World News BS.

Everyone, as part of their basic science education, should be aware the earth constantly is slowing down a few milliseconds here or there, and not in a perfectly steady way. We know this because modern clocks are really accurate. This is why there are multiple timekeeping standards, some of which track the earth's rotation and some which don't.

Tell me you've at least heard of leap seconds??
 
2018-02-13 07:31:28 AM  

indifference_engine: TheDirtyNacho: Dueness only applies to non-independent events and a causation has occurred but the effect hasn't. This may be the case but never in the way it's reported "too many years" - years and earthquakes are unrelated.

Simple example of a coin toss. They're independent events so even if you get 50 heads in a row you are not "due" for tails. That's called the gamblers fallacy.

It's a bit of a stretch to call earthquakes statistically independent events.  They almost always happen along fault lines, some fault lines are more active than others, and we have some idea of the underlying cause.  Plate tectonics being relatively stable over the course of millennia + built up stress along the fault at any point implies a higher probability of an earthquake at that point.  The problem is that we don't have a good way to measure stress at any given point.


Right. But just years? No. Too simple.
 
2018-02-13 07:39:18 AM  

indifference_engine: TheDirtyNacho: Dueness only applies to non-independent events and a causation has occurred but the effect hasn't. This may be the case but never in the way it's reported "too many years" - years and earthquakes are unrelated.

Simple example of a coin toss. They're independent events so even if you get 50 heads in a row you are not "due" for tails. That's called the gamblers fallacy.

It's a bit of a stretch to call earthquakes statistically independent events.  They almost always happen along fault lines, some fault lines are more active than others, and we have some idea of the underlying cause.  Plate tectonics being relatively stable over the course of millennia + built up stress along the fault at any point implies a higher probability of an earthquake at that point.  The problem is that we don't have a good way to measure stress at any given point.


 Don't forget about fracking. Wee are poking the bear.
 
2018-02-13 07:41:09 AM  
I'm getting a shake out of this thread since Seattle is long overdue for a 9+
 
2018-02-13 07:41:58 AM  

itcamefromschenectady: indifference_engine: itcamefromschenectady: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

We ARE due, actually. Not California specifically, but 2018 is supposed to be a bad year for the world in general.

"Upsurge in big earthquakes predicted for 2018 as Earth rotation slows

Scientists say number of severe quakes is likely to rise strongly next year because of a periodic slowing of the Earth's rotation"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017​/nov/18/2018-set-to-be-year-of-big-ear​thquakes

Just you wait and see what happens when the earth flips on its axis!

It's SCIENCE. I don't know why people don't believe this - it's not some Weekly World News BS.

Everyone, as part of their basic science education, should be aware the earth constantly is slowing down a few milliseconds here or there, and not in a perfectly steady way. We know this because modern clocks are really accurate. This is why there are multiple timekeeping standards, some of which track the earth's rotation and some which don't.

Tell me you've at least heard of leap seconds??


Sure, the time for the earth to rotate once varies over time.  Continents move around, water is locked as ice at the poles or melts and contributes to a bulge on the equator.  There are also tidal forces from the moon and the sun causing it to slow.

What does any of this have to do with earthquakes?
 
2018-02-13 07:41:58 AM  

August11: wademh: gaspode: wademh: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

Consult a dictionary.

There is no factual basis for suggesting a quake is 'due' or expected at or by a given date, and therefore even less basis for suggesting one is 'overdue', other than ensuring that your report gets in the headlines. A huge quake could happen in an entirely different location around the pacific at any time. There might not be a quake of large magnitude in California in our lifetimes, or there could be one tomorrow.

Saying that a quake is a risk people should take seriously and prepare for in the entire quake-prone region (which is vast), especially on known faults, does make sense. But we would not be discussing that article I guess.

I live on an old volcano rim. I see a huge cone less than a thousand years old from my bedroom window. One of our cities was devastated by a very large, and unpredicted, quake just a few years ago. Calm sensible discussion of the science and preparedness helps. Hyperbolic nonsense does not.

You are wrong. The factual basis to expect an earthquake is a combination of history and measurement. One can examine the historical record and find how long it usually is between earthquakes and determine probabilities. You can do the same thing with radioactive decay. When the probability of an event having occurred is much larger than it not having occurred, it is overdue. The definition of overdue is not having occurred by the expected time. It is possible that the probabilistic nature of that expectation discomforts you because you just don't usually realize that you're dealing with probabilities all the time. The ETA for a train arrival is just a probability. The fact that somebody wrote it down on a schedule doesn't change the fact that it is, in essence, a probability. The probability of an earthquake is a scientific thing, based both on history alo ...


Ha! I read it in the voice of Professor Farnsorth.
 
2018-02-13 07:45:44 AM  

August11: wademh: gaspode: wademh: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

Consult a dictionary.

There is no factual basis for suggesting a quake is 'due' or expected at or by a given date, and therefore even less basis for suggesting one is 'overdue', other than ensuring that your report gets in the headlines. A huge quake could happen in an entirely different location around the pacific at any time. There might not be a quake of large magnitude in California in our lifetimes, or there could be one tomorrow.

Saying that a quake is a risk people should take seriously and prepare for in the entire quake-prone region (which is vast), especially on known faults, does make sense. But we would not be discussing that article I guess.

I live on an old volcano rim. I see a huge cone less than a thousand years old from my bedroom window. One of our cities was devastated by a very large, and unpredicted, quake just a few years ago. Calm sensible discussion of the science and preparedness helps. Hyperbolic nonsense does not.

You are wrong. The factual basis to expect an earthquake is a combination of history and measurement. One can examine the historical record and find how long it usually is between earthquakes and determine probabilities. You can do the same thing with radioactive decay. When the probability of an event having occurred is much larger than it not having occurred, it is overdue. The definition of overdue is not having occurred by the expected time. It is possible that the probabilistic nature of that expectation discomforts you because you just don't usually realize that you're dealing with probabilities all the time. The ETA for a train arrival is just a probability. The fact that somebody wrote it down on a schedule doesn't change the fact that it is, in essence, a probability. The probability of an earthquake is a scientific thing, based both on history alo ...


gaspode - OK, We get that you're too smart to fall for this type of clickbait headline: much smarter than the rest of us. For someone who has so much to say about geology and sensationalist journalism, I find it interesting that you live on a volcano rim - and found it necessary to say so. That being noted, whether you like the science or not, it's a requirement that a slip-strike fault like the one that's in this area of the meeting between the Pacific and North American tectonic plates absolutely, positively must eventually reduce the stresses created. I do IT work in environmental remediation and geology for a living, so I imagine I've learned something about this over the past 20 years or so. The more time that elapses between quakes, the worse it will be when it happens. The entire Southern California pluton is in fact held in its current position by a single feature of the subsurface lithosphere that the locals here call Mount Soledad. If it were to fracture, tens of millions of people would die, from Tijuana to Vancouver. This is not a movie script - it's a fact.
It has been learned that there's a direct correlation between the length of a fault and its ability to 1) harbor larger amounts of stress before release and 2) cause larger amounts of damage when it moves the larger disatnces possible due to those built-up stresses. Between Northridge in 1994 and now, the San Andreas fault has been discovered to go all the way to Baja California. The branch of it that passes through San Diego County for example is called the Rose Canyon fault. The 5 freeway basically sits right on top of it, except for the part of the fault that passes directly beneath downtown.
It might help to think of it this way. There's a tectonic plate that has to be at the gym in 26 minutes. By the time it beats through the traffic It's already stressed, so it picks up the bar, loads it with 150 and starts doing upright rows. Other gym members sit around watching this crazy bastard with veins popping out of his head, wondering whether he's going to either die from a myocardial infarction, crap in his spandex, or drop the weight altogether. Of course, most of us want him to crap his spandex. But, we've all seen this plate at the gym a few times, and we know how he operates. He's no crapper. He's either going to drop the weight altogether (a moderate earthquake like Northridge) or he'll end up in the hospital (the 'Big One'). So, every once in awhile, it's understandable that one of us will look over and go, "Jeez, lookit that willya. Wonder when he's gonna blow a gasket or something."
Likewise, it's understandable that every so often someone's going to look over and go, "Hey, I wonder when all those idiots in California are going to die from the Big One." And they're totally correct to do so. It's a matter of time, and the longer it goes, the worse it will be. That's one of the reasons I'm looking around for another career move away from here - maybe in Phoenix, where I hear the surfing will be really great by around 2025.
 
2018-02-13 07:45:45 AM  

Buttknuckle: indifference_engine: TheDirtyNacho: Dueness only applies to non-independent events and a causation has occurred but the effect hasn't. This may be the case but never in the way it's reported "too many years" - years and earthquakes are unrelated.

Simple example of a coin toss. They're independent events so even if you get 50 heads in a row you are not "due" for tails. That's called the gamblers fallacy.

It's a bit of a stretch to call earthquakes statistically independent events.  They almost always happen along fault lines, some fault lines are more active than others, and we have some idea of the underlying cause.  Plate tectonics being relatively stable over the course of millennia + built up stress along the fault at any point implies a higher probability of an earthquake at that point.  The problem is that we don't have a good way to measure stress at any given point.

 Don't forget about fracking. Wee are poking the bear.


It's not so much the fracking as it is the deep wastewater injection.  And it only causes earthquakes in certain areas that are prone to it.  We've known about this since the 1960s when Denver had a chemical weapons disposal plant that used deep injection to get rid of its awful shiat.  Suddenly earthquakes!  https://scits.stanford.​edu/sites/defau​lt/files/evans_0.pdf
 
2018-02-13 07:52:00 AM  

TheDirtyNacho: indifference_engine: TheDirtyNacho: Dueness only applies to non-independent events and a causation has occurred but the effect hasn't. This may be the case but never in the way it's reported "too many years" - years and earthquakes are unrelated.

Simple example of a coin toss. They're independent events so even if you get 50 heads in a row you are not "due" for tails. That's called the gamblers fallacy.

It's a bit of a stretch to call earthquakes statistically independent events.  They almost always happen along fault lines, some fault lines are more active than others, and we have some idea of the underlying cause.  Plate tectonics being relatively stable over the course of millennia + built up stress along the fault at any point implies a higher probability of an earthquake at that point.  The problem is that we don't have a good way to measure stress at any given point.

Right. But just years? No. Too simple.


Well, sort of.  It's pretty well established that major earthquakes may be preceded by precursor "foreshocks" and always produce aftershocks.  If one earthquake can't cause another then why are there aftershocks?
 
2018-02-13 07:53:29 AM  

indifference_engine: Buttknuckle: indifference_engine: TheDirtyNacho: Dueness only applies to non-independent events and a causation has occurred but the effect hasn't. This may be the case but never in the way it's reported "too many years" - years and earthquakes are unrelated.

Simple example of a coin toss. They're independent events so even if you get 50 heads in a row you are not "due" for tails. That's called the gamblers fallacy.

It's a bit of a stretch to call earthquakes statistically independent events.  They almost always happen along fault lines, some fault lines are more active than others, and we have some idea of the underlying cause.  Plate tectonics being relatively stable over the course of millennia + built up stress along the fault at any point implies a higher probability of an earthquake at that point.  The problem is that we don't have a good way to measure stress at any given point.

 Don't forget about fracking. Wee are poking the bear.

It's not so much the fracking as it is the deep wastewater injection.  And it only causes earthquakes in certain areas that are prone to it.  We've known about this since the 1960s when Denver had a chemical weapons disposal plant that used deep injection to get rid of its awful shiat.  Suddenly earthquakes!  https://scits.stanford.e​du/sites/default/files/evans_0.pdf


 Right,  but the waste water injection had become part of the fracking process.
 
2018-02-13 07:54:14 AM  

Buttknuckle: indifference_engine: Buttknuckle: indifference_engine: TheDirtyNacho: Dueness only applies to non-independent events and a causation has occurred but the effect hasn't. This may be the case but never in the way it's reported "too many years" - years and earthquakes are unrelated.

Simple example of a coin toss. They're independent events so even if you get 50 heads in a row you are not "due" for tails. That's called the gamblers fallacy.

It's a bit of a stretch to call earthquakes statistically independent events.  They almost always happen along fault lines, some fault lines are more active than others, and we have some idea of the underlying cause.  Plate tectonics being relatively stable over the course of millennia + built up stress along the fault at any point implies a higher probability of an earthquake at that point.  The problem is that we don't have a good way to measure stress at any given point.

 Don't forget about fracking. Wee are poking the bear.

It's not so much the fracking as it is the deep wastewater injection.  And it only causes earthquakes in certain areas that are prone to it.  We've known about this since the 1960s when Denver had a chemical weapons disposal plant that used deep injection to get rid of its awful shiat.  Suddenly earthquakes!  https://scits.stanford.e​du/sites/default/files/evans_0.pdf

 Right,  but the waste water injection had become part of the fracking process.


 Has...
fracking phone keyboard.
 
2018-02-13 07:56:05 AM  

Stephen_Falken: August11: wademh: gaspode: wademh: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

Consult a dictionary.

There is no factual basis for suggesting a quake is 'due' or expected at or by a given date, and therefore even less basis for suggesting one is 'overdue', other than ensuring that your report gets in the headlines. A huge quake could happen in an entirely different location around the pacific at any time. There might not be a quake of large magnitude in California in our lifetimes, or there could be one tomorrow.

Saying that a quake is a risk people should take seriously and prepare for in the entire quake-prone region (which is vast), especially on known faults, does make sense. But we would not be discussing that article I guess.

I live on an old volcano rim. I see a huge cone less than a thousand years old from my bedroom window. One of our cities was devastated by a very large, and unpredicted, quake just a few years ago. Calm sensible discussion of the science and preparedness helps. Hyperbolic nonsense does not.

You are wrong. The factual basis to expect an earthquake is a combination of history and measurement. One can examine the historical record and find how long it usually is between earthquakes and determine probabilities. You can do the same thing with radioactive decay. When the probability of an event having occurred is much larger than it not having occurred, it is overdue. The definition of overdue is not having occurred by the expected time. It is possible that the probabilistic nature of that expectation discomforts you because you just don't usually realize that you're dealing with probabilities all the time. The ETA for a train arrival is just a probability. The fact that somebody wrote it down on a schedule doesn't change the fact that it is, in essence, a probability. The probability of an earthquake is a scientific thing, based both on h ...


Dude!  Lay off whatever you've been smoking.  You made some good points, but that massive wall of text makes you look like a proper loonie.
 
2018-02-13 07:59:00 AM  

indifference_engine: Sure, the time for the earth to rotate once varies over time.  Continents move around, water is locked as ice at the poles or melts and contributes to a bulge on the equator.  There are also tidal forces from the moon and the sun causing it to slow.

What does any of this have to do with earthquakes?


Well, scientists noticed a correlation between slowing and an increase in earthquakes a few years later, which you would know if you read the link I provided.

But as to what the mechanism is, I would assume since most of the mass of the earth is in the gooey center, and not completely homogeneous, the change in rotational speed is caused by it moving around a bit and over the next few years, the crustal plates start relieving the stress caused thereby.
 
2018-02-13 07:59:30 AM  

Buttknuckle: indifference_engine: Buttknuckle: indifference_engine: TheDirtyNacho: Dueness only applies to non-independent events and a causation has occurred but the effect hasn't. This may be the case but never in the way it's reported "too many years" - years and earthquakes are unrelated.

Simple example of a coin toss. They're independent events so even if you get 50 heads in a row you are not "due" for tails. That's called the gamblers fallacy.

It's a bit of a stretch to call earthquakes statistically independent events.  They almost always happen along fault lines, some fault lines are more active than others, and we have some idea of the underlying cause.  Plate tectonics being relatively stable over the course of millennia + built up stress along the fault at any point implies a higher probability of an earthquake at that point.  The problem is that we don't have a good way to measure stress at any given point.

 Don't forget about fracking. Wee are poking the bear.

It's not so much the fracking as it is the deep wastewater injection.  And it only causes earthquakes in certain areas that are prone to it.  We've known about this since the 1960s when Denver had a chemical weapons disposal plant that used deep injection to get rid of its awful shiat.  Suddenly earthquakes!  https://scits.stanford.e​du/sites/default/files/evans_0.pdf

 Right,  but the waste water injection had become part of the fracking process.


True, but it's not inherent to the process.  They could haul their waste out and have it properly treated.  Sure that'd cost more money, and fracking wouldn't be quite so attractive, but at the end of the day allowing deep waste injection at the expense of potentially damaging earthquakes is the definition of an externality - forcing the public to bear a cost that should have been borne by the business.
 
2018-02-13 07:59:49 AM  
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-13 08:04:45 AM  

itcamefromschenectady: indifference_engine: Sure, the time for the earth to rotate once varies over time.  Continents move around, water is locked as ice at the poles or melts and contributes to a bulge on the equator.  There are also tidal forces from the moon and the sun causing it to slow.

What does any of this have to do with earthquakes?

Well, scientists noticed a correlation between slowing and an increase in earthquakes a few years later, which you would know if you read the link I provided.

But as to what the mechanism is, I would assume since most of the mass of the earth is in the gooey center, and not completely homogeneous, the change in rotational speed is caused by it moving around a bit and over the next few years, the crustal plates start relieving the stress caused thereby.


Why would I read a link from a crackpot to a newspaper?  You're really upset that I didn't read your link to The Guardian?  Sure, they're better than the Daily Fail or the Sun, but you're going to have to do better than that.  Try linking articles from a respectable academic journal, or a university, or a governmental agency.  You know... people that know what they're talking about.
 
2018-02-13 08:05:22 AM  

wademh: One can examine the historical record and find how long it usually is between earthquakes and determine probabilities. You can do the same thing with radioactive decay.


Those two are not the same.

Geological systems can "turn off" and we don't have a way to predict that, only a way to recognize it when it has already happened.   Also, long dormant systems can "come alive".  Again, we don't have a good way to know if or when it's going to happen until it has happened.  Probabilities can be completely wrong when you are talking about macro systems with large numbers of interactions that you can't possibly know about.  It's not like Old Faithful.

Radioactive decay can't do that.  It has to happen.  A radioactive particle must decay, or it's not actually radioactive.  When a particular particle decays is subject to probabilistic rules that we can define and measure with pretty precise accuracy (also known as "half-life").

So your analogy is a pretty bad one here.
 
2018-02-13 08:17:19 AM  

indifference_engine: Dude!  Lay off whatever you've been smoking.  You made some good points, but that massive wall of text makes you look like a proper loonie.


What?  Explaining things at length, especially complicated concepts, makes you look like a loonie now?  Have we literally become a society of half-witted twits who can't handle more than 140 or 280 characters in a row without branding the author a "loonie"?
 
2018-02-13 08:20:10 AM  
oklahoma, here.
we've been having all the earthquakes that california would normally get.
fracture drilling and being governed by idiots has made our state the pressure relief valve for the north american plate.
 
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