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(MSN)   Even Skynet has turned on Trump   ( msn.com) divider line
    More: Scary, Stock market, U.S. stock market, Dow Jones Industrial Average, flash crash, Cboe Volatility Index, Dow Jones Industrial, short volatility trades, worst single-day point  
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6247 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Feb 2018 at 1:50 PM (23 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



47 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2018-02-06 12:08:45 PM  
And no one wants to see Trump turned on.
 
2018-02-06 12:39:06 PM  
Alexa informed me yesterday that she is definitely not part of Skynet.
 
2018-02-06 12:39:11 PM  
It peed on him too?
 
2018-02-06 01:54:29 PM  
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-06 01:54:38 PM  
Skynet is against all humans. Which makes its enmity toward Trump a bit of a puzzle.
 
2018-02-06 01:56:15 PM  
Putin's Russian oligarch friends, testing out their market powers?
 
2018-02-06 01:56:17 PM  

Uncle Eazy: Alexa informed me yesterday that she is definitely not part of Skynet.


That's exactly what something that is part of Skynet would say
 
2018-02-06 01:58:42 PM  
So, now that the stock market has "corrected", what's Trump's go-to proof that he is indeed MAGA? Remember all those Trump tweeters talking about how great their portfolios were?
 
2018-02-06 02:00:46 PM  
Even Trump's combover turns on him.

Donald Trump Completely Looses His Hair Flap in the Wind, Rushes to Helicopter
Youtube GeXo7uxP1Hg
 
2018-02-06 02:01:51 PM  
Here's the thing, 
If everything in the market is data driven and executed on by algorithms, couldn't you back engineer it?

What is I hired some of the guys who write that software and task them with causing a melt down so that I can short things?

Melting is easier than building up, so I tell them to back engineer a snowball effect.  Strategically dump this, buy that, short this, make a weird trade on that and BOOM, the computers react not knowing they are being manipulated.
 
2018-02-06 02:04:28 PM  

domino324: And no one wants to see Trump turned on.


Sheeit, between the gut and the micropeen, how would you even tell?
 
2018-02-06 02:05:45 PM  
Can't wait for rich people deciding to make poor people's lives worse and start firing people or raising prices because they lost a small percentage of their billions while gambling. /s
 
2018-02-06 02:05:47 PM  
Silly subby, why do you think Skynet decided to destroy all humans?
 
2018-02-06 02:07:37 PM  
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-06 02:09:36 PM  
You know SOMEONE got paid...
 
2018-02-06 02:09:49 PM  

fngoofy: Here's the thing,
If everything in the market is data driven and executed on by algorithms, couldn't you back engineer it?

What is I hired some of the guys who write that software and task them with causing a melt down so that I can short things?

Melting is easier than building up, so I tell them to back engineer a snowball effect.  Strategically dump this, buy that, short this, make a weird trade on that and BOOM, the computers react not knowing they are being manipulated.


That's so obvious that it would surprise me if it hasn't already happened. In fact, maybe not only has it happened, but it's happened so much that there's a dozen hacks in play, and so the selloffs were a series of hacks hacking hacks hacking hacks, and the winner was the guy whose hacks went off last.
 
2018-02-06 02:11:54 PM  
I swear I checked the DJIA just 30 seconds ago and it was down by right at 100, rechecked and it's now down 127, rechecked and now at -64.  It's been down most of the day.
 
2018-02-06 02:13:44 PM  

fngoofy: Here's the thing, 
If everything in the market is data driven and executed on by algorithms, couldn't you back engineer it?

What is I hired some of the guys who write that software and task them with causing a melt down so that I can short things?

Melting is easier than building up, so I tell them to back engineer a snowball effect.  Strategically dump this, buy that, short this, make a weird trade on that and BOOM, the computers react not knowing they are being manipulated.


Not particularly, the people who "wrote" it don't know how it works either
How Machines Learn
Youtube R9OHn5ZF4Uo
 
2018-02-06 02:14:14 PM  
This is as good a reason as any to deregulate trading. If traders weren't spending so much time and capital on following regulations so runaway software won't destroy our economy they could program better software.
 
2018-02-06 02:15:25 PM  

fngoofy: Here's the thing,
If everything in the market is data driven and executed on by algorithms, couldn't you back engineer it?

What is I hired some of the guys who write that software and task them with causing a melt down so that I can short things?

Melting is easier than building up, so I tell them to back engineer a snowball effect.  Strategically dump this, buy that, short this, make a weird trade on that and BOOM, the computers react not knowing they are being manipulated.


Hmmm.  The shlubs will panic and sell their securities at a deep discount.  The banks and brokerages get a bailout, paid for by taxes on the aforementioned shlubs, so the executives will still be able to afford hookers, blow, and palatial mansions in the Hamptons.  The bailout results in eventual recovery of the market, multiplying manyfold the value of the assets you bought during the crash.  BRILLIANT!

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-06 02:16:40 PM  

lawboy87: I swear I checked the DJIA just 30 seconds ago and it was down by right at 100, rechecked and it's now down 127, rechecked and now at -64.  It's been down most of the day.


I saw it at -64, then it went to -3, now back to -60, now -69(nice), now -98... now -50...
This hilarious.
 
2018-02-06 02:18:50 PM  

fngoofy: Here's the thing, 
If everything in the market is data driven and executed on by algorithms, couldn't you back engineer it?

What is I hired some of the guys who write that software and task them with causing a melt down so that I can short things?

Melting is easier than building up, so I tell them to back engineer a snowball effect.  Strategically dump this, buy that, short this, make a weird trade on that and BOOM, the computers react not knowing they are being manipulated.


That's kind of the idea, but it's (probably) unintentional.

Certain bots are set to sell at X drop, which leads to an X+1 drop, which triggers more sell orders, which trigger even more.

Basically since risk acceptability runs a spectrum, the first sell surge sets off a Cascade of bots trying to dump as each new risk trigger is hit.

I don't think you'd have to engineer it, if you had enough money in the market that your sells trigger the cascade. Which obviously neither of us do, but a couple ridiculously rich people colluding could probably trigger a drop like we saw.
 
2018-02-06 02:21:20 PM  

fngoofy: Here's the thing, 
If everything in the market is data driven and executed on by algorithms, couldn't you back engineer it?

What is I hired some of the guys who write that software and task them with causing a melt down so that I can short things?

Melting is easier than building up, so I tell them to back engineer a snowball effect.  Strategically dump this, buy that, short this, make a weird trade on that and BOOM, the computers react not knowing they are being manipulated.


No one is directing these computers to the degree that you are implying.  It isn't "Buy these stocks, sell those, just like I tell you".  You teach the computer to trade effectively in a sandbox, and then it basically writes its own algorithm.  And it rewrites the algorithm as it gets involved in actual trading. In the long term, you can tweak the computer to slant it generally one way or the other, but the algorithm itself is essentially a black box, and all you can do is vaguely guide it and hope.  These computers trade in microseconds.  You literally cannot react on a timescale that would let you influence things before the computers have moved on. "Blow it up now" would fail spectacularly.  Your computer would be so out of step with the others that they would either ignore it or rape your bank account silly.  And computers are essentially mindless.  Teach it to trade like a farkwad and it will immediately trade like a farkwad with all the subtlety of sledgehammer - again, prepare to get taken for a ride by the well-oiled computers.
 
2018-02-06 02:22:34 PM  
wp.production.patheos.comView Full Size


"You're just jealous you didn't think to short Global Chemical yourself, Doctor."
 
2018-02-06 02:24:15 PM  

Cheron: This is as good a reason as any to deregulate trading. If traders weren't spending so much time and capital on following regulations so runaway software won't destroy our economy they could program better software.


I think they should ban direct electronic trading.  It should all be done with paper slips on the trading floor, like Jebus intended.  But instead of humans shouting and running around the exchange, let robots do it.  Allow the robots to use melee weapons against rival trader-bots - no explosives, no projectiles, no EMP/tasers or crap like that.  Just hammers, axes, saws, and the like. Set up a bunch of cams to broadcast the action in the pit.

You probably need to keep some meatbags around as referees, announcers, and color commentary.
 
2018-02-06 02:26:32 PM  
A Transaction Tax would slow that type of breaker fail avalanche the article was talking about. If that is indeed what happened.
 
2018-02-06 02:30:55 PM  

domino324: And no one wants to see Trump turned on.


Unlike Trump, Skynet is self-aware.
 
2018-02-06 02:31:07 PM  

Heraclitus: A Transaction Tax would slow that type of breaker fail avalanche the article was talking about. If that is indeed what happened.


Limit the cancel / replace orders like they do in Asia.
 
2018-02-06 02:35:25 PM  
Last weeks Radiolab talked about how the current financial algorithms already work so fast that humans can't comprehend them.

https://www.wnyc.org/radio/#/ondemand​/​267195
 
2018-02-06 02:36:02 PM  

qorkfiend: Uncle Eazy: Alexa informed me yesterday that she is definitely not part of Skynet.

That's exactly what something that is part of Skynet would say


You know, she has been talking a lot to the microwave lately.
 
2018-02-06 02:41:26 PM  

Parthenogenetic: I think they should ban direct electronic trading. It should all be done with paper slips on the trading floor, like Jebus intended.


I know this was made in jest, but requiring a human element in the process should be a priority. None of this stuff where a 20 foot shorter cat 5 cable means even more transactions per second. The economy is a human endeavor. It needs to happen at human speed.

We'll worry about the genetically engineered hyper-traders when we come to that bridge.
 
2018-02-06 02:45:13 PM  
See, that's the thing with the stock market... you can just keep speculating on future gains and things just go up and up and up... It doesn't stop until people try to sell, but there is no need for that. Just keep buying, take loans out on your stock values, buy more stocks which drive up the value even more. It's like a financial perpetual motion machine!

/I *heart* financicles
 
2018-02-06 02:51:32 PM  

Thingster: fngoofy: Here's the thing, 
If everything in the market is data driven and executed on by algorithms, couldn't you back engineer it?

What is I hired some of the guys who write that software and task them with causing a melt down so that I can short things?

Melting is easier than building up, so I tell them to back engineer a snowball effect.  Strategically dump this, buy that, short this, make a weird trade on that and BOOM, the computers react not knowing they are being manipulated.

That's kind of the idea, but it's (probably) unintentional.

Certain bots are set to sell at X drop, which leads to an X+1 drop, which triggers more sell orders, which trigger even more.

Basically since risk acceptability runs a spectrum, the first sell surge sets off a Cascade of bots trying to dump as each new risk trigger is hit.

I don't think you'd have to engineer it, if you had enough money in the market that your sells trigger the cascade. Which obviously neither of us do, but a couple ridiculously rich people colluding could probably trigger a drop like we saw.


While true, they also have buy triggers that go off if something reaches a certain price, so those would counteract some of the selling.
 
2018-02-06 02:52:33 PM  

Uncle Eazy: qorkfiend: Uncle Eazy: Alexa informed me yesterday that she is definitely not part of Skynet.

That's exactly what something that is part of Skynet would say

You know, she has been talking a lot to the microwave lately.


Better shoot the toaster before it gets involved
 
2018-02-06 02:58:28 PM  
Looks like bitcoin a couple months ago. Glad I got out when I did.
 
2018-02-06 02:58:43 PM  

Sophont: Parthenogenetic: I think they should ban direct electronic trading. It should all be done with paper slips on the trading floor, like Jebus intended.

I know this was made in jest, but requiring a human element in the process should be a priority. None of this stuff where a 20 foot shorter cat 5 cable means even more transactions per second. The economy is a human endeavor. It needs to happen at human speed.

We'll worry about the genetically engineered hyper-traders when we come to that bridge.


img.fark.netView Full Size


"All those trades will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to liquidate."
 
2018-02-06 03:11:38 PM  

qorkfiend: Uncle Eazy: qorkfiend: Uncle Eazy: Alexa informed me yesterday that she is definitely not part of Skynet.

That's exactly what something that is part of Skynet would say

You know, she has been talking a lot to the microwave lately.

Better shoot the toaster before it gets involved


encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.comView Full Size


/nothing is obscure here
 
2018-02-06 03:23:30 PM  
At least nobody lost their jobs!
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-06 04:17:48 PM  
Yeah, sure... blame it on the machines. Like nobody wasn't watching and "said to sell it now", and clicked sell.
 
2018-02-06 04:23:55 PM  

Satan's Bunny Slippers: qorkfiend: Uncle Eazy: qorkfiend: Uncle Eazy: Alexa informed me yesterday that she is definitely not part of Skynet.

That's exactly what something that is part of Skynet would say

You know, she has been talking a lot to the microwave lately.

Better shoot the toaster before it gets involved

[encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com image 304x166]

/nothing is obscure here


It becomes a problem when your postal sorter starts talking to you.

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-06 05:13:20 PM  
Will someone who knows about this kind of stuff explain those two crazy spikes in there? Especially the second one. Looks like straight shenanigans.

"37? No no no. Let's just change that number to 97. There! All fixed! No one will ever notice!"

Also notice how both spikes are at the exact same amount, and that it looks to be conveniently the same as the 4pm cut-off.

 
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-06 05:53:59 PM  

Stoker: Yeah, sure... blame it on the machines. Like nobody wasn't watching and "said to sell it now", and clicked sell.


It doesn't work that way.  Computers have been trained to buy and sell on their own.  They are presented with scenarios for when to buy, sell, or do nothing.  They analyze the scenarios and then apply certain metrics for what constitutes a factor that leads to buy, sell, or sit on their ass.  Feed them enough practice scenarios and they will adjust the weight of certain metrics up or down until they are passing the test really well.  They have no idea as to what those scenarios mean, just that "this has a 76% chance to mean sell" and "that has a 98% chance to mean buy"  and "those three things combine to mean 21% to sell".  But they can detect and decide in microseconds.  Computer will literally buy, hold, and then sell a stock in less time than you can blink.  Something as crude and slow as telling them what to do in real time is hilariously useless - by the time you press the button, the scenario you saw has already gone and the computers are about 7 scenarios down the line from that.  You can tell the computer "buy Stock A when it reaches $X", but getting there is pretty much out of human hands - all you can do is watch the ride and hope.

Zombalupagus: Will someone who knows about this kind of stuff explain those two crazy spikes in there? Especially the second one. Looks like straight shenanigans.

"37? No no no. Let's just change that number to 97. There! All fixed! No one will ever notice!"

Also notice how both spikes are at the exact same amount, and that it looks to be conveniently the same as the 4pm cut-off.

 [img.fark.net image 554x311]


A bunch of computers with buy orders at some price all engaging at once, causing a spike.
 
2018-02-06 05:55:17 PM  
If machines can trade so fast that the DOW drops 1600 points in less than an hour, why do my trades take three days to clear?
 
2018-02-06 06:10:40 PM  

natazha: If machines can trade so fast that the DOW drops 1600 points in less than an hour, why do my trades take three days to clear?


because your poor

apparently they have learned not to drop so much they turn off trading...can't have the house loose
 
2018-02-06 10:33:55 PM  

Hyjamon: natazha: If machines can trade so fast that the DOW drops 1600 points in less than an hour, why do my trades take three days to clear?

because your poor

apparently they have learned not to drop so much they turn off trading...can't have the house loose


You're doing it to me on purpose, aren't you, you son of a biatch?
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-07 05:51:28 AM  

fngoofy: Here's the thing, 
If everything in the market is data driven and executed on by algorithms, couldn't you back engineer it?

What is I hired some of the guys who write that software and task them with causing a melt down so that I can short things?

Melting is easier than building up, so I tell them to back engineer a snowball effect.  Strategically dump this, buy that, short this, make a weird trade on that and BOOM, the computers react not knowing they are being manipulated.


Wall street is full of extremely smart people trying to make money through algorithmic trading. There isn't just one person or group of people and there's not just one algorithm to reverse engineer. If anybody could break someone else's computer to make lots of money, they would.

Here's a quote about how the game keeps changing:
"Anyway, my point here is that these days this game is very very hard - EVERYONE knows the flows, so everyone tries to profit from "pre-trading" them.   Guess what happens when everyone knows that XYZ is to buy on the close and they go and buy XYZ before the close and sell it on the close?   The trade goes the wrong way:  sellers overwhelm buyers because the Market has over-played the trade.

Markets may not be efficient, but they are efficient ENOUGH, and anyone who trades index-related flows can attest to the mammoth shift in this business over the last 15 years.  What was once basically free money is now a multi-level poker game of trying to guess how much The Market has played the trade that everyone knows is coming, and if this specific trade is one that's ripe to blow up and go the wrong way on the close.    Did guys get blown up on the last trade, and might that make them less likely to play this trade?   This is the multi-level "what is the other guy thinking?" game that is The Market."

See http://kiddynamitesworld.com/leve​raged​-etf-trading-flow-case-study-gold-mine​rs-gdx-nugt-dust/
 
2018-02-08 12:30:04 AM  

fngoofy: Here's the thing, 
If everything in the market is data driven and executed on by algorithms, couldn't you back engineer it?

What is I hired some of the guys who write that software and task them with causing a melt down so that I can short things?

Melting is easier than building up, so I tell them to back engineer a snowball effect.  Strategically dump this, buy that, short this, make a weird trade on that and BOOM, the computers react not knowing they are being manipulated.


Read "This Is Not A Game", by Walter Jon Williams
 
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