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(CNBC)   US stock indexes continue downward spiral for worst week in 2 years because of: A) Trump's first SOTU; B) Trump releasing partisan memo; or C) God answering our prayers   ( cnbc.com) divider line
    More: Obvious, Dow Jones Industrial Average, percent, average hourly earnings, Exxon Mobil, key corporate earnings, Reuters expected growth, U.S. stocks, Jones industrial average  
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1220 clicks; posted to Business » on 02 Feb 2018 at 1:50 PM (24 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2018-02-02 01:48:43 PM  
...does the phrase, "Sell, Mortimer, sell!", hold any meaning for you?

Shiat's about to go down, and the folks riding the high are cashing in their chips and making their way in an orderly manner for the exit. Give it a week, and let's revisit this, shall we?
 
2018-02-02 01:53:43 PM  
But that tax cut was going to give us all infinity money forever.
 
2018-02-02 01:54:36 PM  
Emplemons Downward Spiral For A Minute
Youtube FK1RSLOyCns
 
2018-02-02 02:05:21 PM  
Bond yields go up, stock prices go down.  You can't explain that.

Finance 101
 
2018-02-02 02:08:05 PM  

AngryDragon: Bond yields go up, stock prices go down.  You can't explain that.

Finance 101


I guess with a lower tax rate, investors don't mind getting dinged on sell stocks for short-term gain.
 
2018-02-02 02:10:33 PM  
Consequences, consequences.

You pass a monster tax cut that drains the revenue out of the federal government, what happens?

You quickly start to see the government plan for issuing a lot more T-bill, bonds, etc.

You quickly see the bond market adjust their expectations, crashing the value of bonds and driving up interest rates.

And suddenly equities look risky and folks want some cash to buy some of them higher-yielding bonds of myth and legend.

media.rs-online.comView Full Size
 
2018-02-02 02:15:06 PM  
At this pace, in a few minutes it will be down 500 points.
 
2018-02-02 02:16:06 PM  

wejash: Consequences, consequences.

You pass a monster tax cut that drains the revenue out of the federal government, what happens?

You quickly start to see the government plan for issuing a lot more T-bill, bonds, etc.

You quickly see the bond market adjust their expectations, crashing the value of bonds and driving up interest rates.

And suddenly equities look risky and folks want some cash to buy some of them higher-yielding bonds of myth and legend.

[media.rs-online.com image 239x155]


I guess that's correct. When the interest rates for the most secure bonds (T-bills and the like) go up, all other bonds' interest rate go up accordingly, since their interest rate = T-bill rate + adjustments due to (risk + time + inflation). So if a typical corporate 10-year bond is offering 6%/APR, it now goes up to 7.5%/APR people would move more of their money to that rather than keeping it in the secondary stock market. At the same time, companies that need capital may find the high interest rate to be unsavory and might choose to sell additional stocks into the open market. If so, that depresses the stock price some more.
 
2018-02-02 02:16:16 PM  
This is clearly all Obama's fault.  He gets no credit for the high stock prices, but deserves all the blame when they go down.  That's just how Trump's 'Murica works.
 
2018-02-02 02:18:34 PM  

FormlessOne: ...does the phrase, "Sell, Mortimer, sell!", hold any meaning for you?


Turn those machines back on!

Turn those machines back on!
 
2018-02-02 02:19:35 PM  
Indices.
 
2018-02-02 02:20:37 PM  
I've been told this is nothing, and that the US economy is doing better than ever...
 
2018-02-02 02:27:01 PM  
This morning around 8:15 am, Jennifer Westhoven on HLN, predicted that there would be a 250 point drop in the market-citing high employment levels, which then could raise interest rates. Meh-the market will certainly go lower-profit taking, especially after all the tax cuts.
 
2018-02-02 02:28:32 PM  

CygnusDarius: I've been told this is nothing, and that the US economy is doing better than ever...


The Thick of It - Time travel
Youtube sCN6K60F64M
 
2018-02-02 02:29:58 PM  
Bad news today was the rise in wages.  Companies are worried that they will have to pay employees more while at the same time they are running out of employees to layoff.
 
2018-02-02 02:36:26 PM  

CygnusDarius: I've been told this is nothing, and that the US economy is doing better than ever...


I wouldn't say better than ever, but it's doing alright (as it has been over the last 2-3 years).  But, what's good for equity prices isn't always what's best for the economy, and stock prices have (in my opinion) gotten WAY ahead of themselves in the last few months.  There's no way that a lot of these large cap companies should be worth 30% more than they were a year ago.  It's just silliness, and as the saying goes "anything that is unsustainable will eventually end.".

Let's just hope it doesn't drag the real economy down with it.
 
2018-02-02 02:48:25 PM  

FormlessOne: ...does the phrase, "Sell, Mortimer, sell!", hold any meaning for you?

Shiat's about to go down, and the folks riding the high are cashing in their chips and making their way in an orderly manner for the exit. Give it a week, and let's revisit this, shall we?


For real this time? People have been saying that since 2012.

/Don't try to market time
//You won't be able to do it consistantly
 
2018-02-02 02:52:57 PM  

Nightjars: Let's just hope it doesn't drag the real economy down with it.


Ha!

Of course it will drag down the "real" economy. The wealthy have learned that they can just keep generating bubbles, and when they burst, the government will cover their losses, and they'll remain rich while everyone else gets farked in the ass.

This is the new normal. It's also generally what happens right before a violent revolution. FDR managed to avoid another civil war with the New Deal, but I don't see that happening again.
 
2018-02-02 02:53:08 PM  

machoprogrammer: /Don't try to market time
//You won't be able to do it consistantly


You only have to do it once!
 
2018-02-02 02:55:26 PM  

machoprogrammer: FormlessOne: ...does the phrase, "Sell, Mortimer, sell!", hold any meaning for you?

Shiat's about to go down, and the folks riding the high are cashing in their chips and making their way in an orderly manner for the exit. Give it a week, and let's revisit this, shall we?

For real this time? People have been saying that since 2012.

/Don't try to market time
//You won't be able to do it consistantly


It never hurts to get out for a short while, if you're feeling jumpy. It's trying to time the re-entry that f**ks people up.
 
2018-02-02 02:55:56 PM  
Yeah that damn Obama recession keeps hitting.

THANKS OBAMA
 
2018-02-02 03:09:48 PM  

machoprogrammer: FormlessOne: ...does the phrase, "Sell, Mortimer, sell!", hold any meaning for you?

Shiat's about to go down, and the folks riding the high are cashing in their chips and making their way in an orderly manner for the exit. Give it a week, and let's revisit this, shall we?

For real this time? People have been saying that since 2012.

/Don't try to market time
//You won't be able to do it consistantly


I have to agree with you here based on recent personal experience.

I was getting jumpy in October and I really farked up by getting out for a few months during the fall and then getting back in recently, so I managed to miss some of the market gains in late 2017 and then get hit by the drop this week, so I doubly screwed myself with trying to time it.
 
2018-02-02 03:16:27 PM  
I saw this coming. Got out of stocks and into Bitcoin.
 
2018-02-02 03:23:24 PM  

jso2897: It never hurts to get out for a short while, if you're feeling jumpy. It's trying to time the re-entry that f**ks people up


My employer matches 2-for-1 the dollars I put into my 403(b), so the market essentially has to crater to make it worthwhile for me to stop putting money in.
 
2018-02-02 03:27:53 PM  

facepalm.jpg: jso2897: It never hurts to get out for a short while, if you're feeling jumpy. It's trying to time the re-entry that f**ks people up

My employer matches 2-for-1 the dollars I put into my 403(b), so the market essentially has to crater to make it worthwhile for me to stop putting money in.


I thought the idea was buy low, sell high.  Not keep investing while the market is high, stop when it crashes.
 
2018-02-02 03:32:24 PM  

Artist: This morning around 8:15 am, Jennifer Westhoven on HLN, predicted that there would be a 250 point drop in the market-citing high employment levels, which then could raise interest rates. Meh-the market will certainly go lower-profit taking, especially after all the tax cuts.


mmm, Jennifer Westhoven...

img.fark.netView Full Size


img.fark.netView Full Size

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-02 03:36:54 PM  
2% does not a correction make. I would not be surprised to see days ahead where the S&P 500 drops 5% or more. I also would not be surprised to see Trump pull one out of the Obama playbook and tell the Fed to strongly affirm there will be no rate hikes while this bubble shows signs of deflating.
 
2018-02-02 03:39:37 PM  

H31N0US: 2% does not a correction make. I would not be surprised to see days ahead where the S&P 500 drops 5% or more. I also would not be surprised to see Trump pull one out of the Obama playbook and tell the Fed to strongly affirm there will be no rate hikes while this bubble shows signs of deflating.


20% is a correction.
 
2018-02-02 03:45:49 PM  

mcreadyblue: H31N0US: 2% does not a correction make. I would not be surprised to see days ahead where the S&P 500 drops 5% or more. I also would not be surprised to see Trump pull one out of the Obama playbook and tell the Fed to strongly affirm there will be no rate hikes while this bubble shows signs of deflating.

20% is a correction.


So 1 down, 9 to go?
 
2018-02-02 03:48:30 PM  

mcreadyblue: H31N0US: 2% does not a correction make. I would not be surprised to see days ahead where the S&P 500 drops 5% or more. I also would not be surprised to see Trump pull one out of the Obama playbook and tell the Fed to strongly affirm there will be no rate hikes while this bubble shows signs of deflating.

20% is a correction.


Correction: 10% is a correction.
 
2018-02-02 03:49:31 PM  
Painful day.  Hope Monday doesn't follow suit.
 
2018-02-02 03:56:07 PM  

H31N0US: 2% does not a correction make. I would not be surprised to see days ahead where the S&P 500 drops 5% or more. I also would not be surprised to see Trump pull one out of the Obama playbook and tell the Fed to strongly affirm there will be no rate hikes while this bubble shows signs of deflating.


No, Trump will claim that LIBERALS and OBAMA'S SECRET DEEP STATE are destroying the economy and they should be arrested for it.

Paul Ryan will be seen muttering "you're not helping" AGAIN and do nothing.

Russian bots and useful fools will fill twitter, facebook and Fark with memes in support of Trump.
 
2018-02-02 03:57:03 PM  

Petit_Merdeux: FormlessOne: ...does the phrase, "Sell, Mortimer, sell!", hold any meaning for you?

Turn those machines back on!

Turn those machines back on!


img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-02 03:57:18 PM  

ChrisDe: At this pace, in a few minutes it will be down 500 points.


Dow is down 676 five minutes before the close.  That would put it at the 6th largest drop in history.
 
2018-02-02 03:59:12 PM  
at some point the people that had taken their money out a while back will pile back in, claiming this was the drop they were looking for, and keep it from going too far

meanwhile they would've made a bunch more if they just had stayed in, even after a drop
 
2018-02-02 04:00:21 PM  
Glad my bitcoins are worth 19K, feel bad for everyone trying to get out of stocks but there are only the 8K bitcoins for sale
 
2018-02-02 04:01:54 PM  

phoenix352: ChrisDe: At this pace, in a few minutes it will be down 500 points.

Dow is down 676 five minutes before the close.  That would put it at the 6th largest drop in history.


pared its loses to 675 at close
 
2018-02-02 04:06:39 PM  

phoenix352: ChrisDe: At this pace, in a few minutes it will be down 500 points.

Dow is down 676 five minutes before the close.  That would put it at the 6th largest drop in history.


Nominal values don't mean much.
 
2018-02-02 04:08:45 PM  
Down 665.75.

The rounding of the beast.
 
2018-02-02 04:09:40 PM  
pfffft you kids should of been there in '87. That was a correction! 22% in one day. They were repoing BMW's all over Boston after that one..
 
2018-02-02 04:19:26 PM  
US stock volatility spikes to highest since election day 2016.  Wonder what happened on election day 2016?  Waiting for Trump to pin the market dump on Obama.  Waiting for the fundies to worry about the drop in the DOW of 666, it's a FARKING SIGN!  Also, rattling sabers about potential "bloody nose" attacks on North Korea, or a cruise missile strike in Syria may provide some cover on RussiaGate but does fark-all for investor confidence.  All in all, I'd say Trump has landed us exactly where we'd predicted we'd be: farked on a number of sides awaiting the bottom drop-out.
 
2018-02-02 04:31:26 PM  

Nonrepeating Rotating Binary: facepalm.jpg: jso2897: It never hurts to get out for a short while, if you're feeling jumpy. It's trying to time the re-entry that f**ks people up

My employer matches 2-for-1 the dollars I put into my 403(b), so the market essentially has to crater to make it worthwhile for me to stop putting money in.

I thought the idea was buy low, sell high.  Not keep investing while the market is high, stop when it crashes.


If one is investing over decades they are ALWAYS buying low.

The problem is remembering to shift away from risk in the final years leading to retirement.
 
2018-02-02 04:32:46 PM  
img.fark.netView Full Size

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-02 04:34:45 PM  
Isn't the joke of the headlines that the answer is always C?

That means subby has been praying for the market to crash and people loose their nest-eggs just so they can relish in the fact that Trump may not have had the economy as under wraps as he has bragged.
 
2018-02-02 04:40:41 PM  

Red Shirt Blues: pfffft you kids should of been there in '87. That was a correction! 22% in one day. They were repoing BMW's all over Boston after that one..


Bah. Was there in '29. People were selling apples on every street corner. My dad's Hispano-Suiza got repoed and my mom had to sell her Charlie Patton 78s. Oh, how she cried.
 
2018-02-02 04:42:03 PM  

facepalm.jpg: jso2897: It never hurts to get out for a short while, if you're feeling jumpy. It's trying to time the re-entry that f**ks people up

My employer matches 2-for-1 the dollars I put into my 403(b), so the market essentially has to crater to make it worthwhile for me to stop putting money in.


Not contradictory.  You can put in and leave in whatever you want in the 403b.  Get the match. But almost every plan will have a money market (effectively cash) fund in the 403b options list if you want to stay on the sideline.
 
2018-02-02 04:48:22 PM  

Red Shirt Blues: pfffft you kids should of been there in '87. That was a correction! 22% in one day. They were repoing BMW's all over Boston after that one..


I remember my history teacher telling us to remember that day. His was the last class of the day, and by then the damage had been done in Asia, the UK and was wrapping up in NY.

But the prior week there had already been some heavy declines. Tremors, if you will. What we're seeing could be tremors. Climbing interest rates could be a catalyst, but I think the main cause of the coming correction will be the realization that "the cloud" is really just "someone else's datacenter", and there's a bunch of ad revenue driving growth rates. Ad revenue is very fickle when markets turn. So if we have a situation where lots of smaller ad funded websites go under, we'll then see cloud computing revenue declines. Amazon and Google won't look so appealing then.

It's not a question of if, it's a question of when, but only a fool would claim to be able to time it.
 
2018-02-02 04:55:10 PM  
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-02-02 04:57:08 PM  

H31N0US: Red Shirt Blues: pfffft you kids should of been there in '87. That was a correction! 22% in one day. They were repoing BMW's all over Boston after that one..

I remember my history teacher telling us to remember that day. His was the last class of the day, and by then the damage had been done in Asia, the UK and was wrapping up in NY.

But the prior week there had already been some heavy declines. Tremors, if you will. What we're seeing could be tremors. Climbing interest rates could be a catalyst, but I think the main cause of the coming correction will be the realization that "the cloud" is really just "someone else's datacenter", and there's a bunch of ad revenue driving growth rates. Ad revenue is very fickle when markets turn. So if we have a situation where lots of smaller ad funded websites go under, we'll then see cloud computing revenue declines. Amazon and Google won't look so appealing then.

It's not a question of if, it's a question of when, but only a fool would claim to be able to time it.


I was in college. The Friday before the market dropped 50 points which was significant back then. Then Monday....Wham.
 
2018-02-02 05:02:54 PM  

TheSubjunctive: facepalm.jpg: jso2897: It never hurts to get out for a short while, if you're feeling jumpy. It's trying to time the re-entry that f**ks people up

My employer matches 2-for-1 the dollars I put into my 403(b), so the market essentially has to crater to make it worthwhile for me to stop putting money in.

Not contradictory.  You can put in and leave in whatever you want in the 403b.  Get the match. But almost every plan will have a money market (effectively cash) fund in the 403b options list if you want to stay on the sideline.


Great point.
 
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