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(Bloomberg)   GM producing cars without functioning steering wheel or foot pedals, on purpose this time   ( bloomberg.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, steering wheel, Automobile, GM, San Francisco, GM President Dan, self-driving cars, GM shares, steering wheel-free cars  
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1191 clicks; posted to Geek » on 12 Jan 2018 at 10:35 PM (27 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2018-01-12 04:28:32 PM  
We're just about coming to the end of these stories being 'news'

What this says very clearly is that AVs have gone past category of startups and experiments. And it's not something that will happen "maybe in the next 5 years".

You now have a Big Three auto company saying it will mass produce fully autonomous vehicles (without steering wheels and pedals) in 2019.

That's a year ahead of what even optimists like me were thinking in 2015 when we first started talking about AVs on Fark.

Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.
 
2018-01-12 09:50:22 PM  
I've always wanted a car vulnerable to hacking which I cannot myself control. Hooray!
 
2018-01-12 10:46:30 PM  

mjjt: We're just about coming to the end of these stories being 'news'

What this says very clearly is that AVs have gone past category of startups and experiments. And it's not something that will happen "maybe in the next 5 years".

You now have a Big Three auto company saying it will mass produce fully autonomous vehicles (without steering wheels and pedals) in 2019.

That's a year ahead of what even optimists like me were thinking in 2015 when we first started talking about AVs on Fark.

Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.


As a cyclist I would enjoy this. However now a one or two hour commute wouldn't be so bad. I could easily spend the two hours in the car prepping for my day and the two hours getting back answering calls and finishing documentation.  The exburbs will definitely see a revival.
 
2018-01-12 10:53:41 PM  
Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

You think all the driver operated cars they're still selling will be off the road in 7 years?

Don't quit your day job.
 
2018-01-12 11:06:17 PM  

Nonrepeating Rotating Binary: Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

You think all the driver operated cars they're still selling will be off the road in 7 years?

Don't quit your day job.


You fail basic reading comprehension:

won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

Some roads at some times, and country roads until mapped, will still be available for human controlled cars.
 
2018-01-12 11:06:22 PM  
die-by-wire technology?
 
2018-01-12 11:17:43 PM  

mjjt: Nonrepeating Rotating Binary: Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

You think all the driver operated cars they're still selling will be off the road in 7 years?

Don't quit your day job.

You fail basic reading comprehension:

won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

Some roads at some times, and country roads until mapped, will still be available for human controlled cars.


I comprehended what you wrote the first time.  You're a moron who thinks all the cars and trucks still being sold today will be off the freeways and "most city streets" in seven years.
 
2018-01-12 11:29:02 PM  
img.fark.netView Full Size


/approves
 
2018-01-12 11:31:11 PM  
So why does it have rear view mirrors? Stupid GM.
 
2018-01-12 11:57:33 PM  
Forgetting that people like to drive...
 
2018-01-13 12:04:40 AM  

HotIgneous Intruder: Forgetting that people like to drive...


I don't.
 
2018-01-13 12:27:16 AM  

slackananda: I've always wanted a car vulnerable to hacking which I cannot myself control. Hooray!


this
Until the computer can adjust for 100% of the stuff a good human driver does, I'm not getting into a vehicle that a human rider can't take control of.

HotIgneous Intruder: Forgetting that people like to drive...


This
They are forgetting that if you have the skill, and a fun car to drive, driving can be quite fun. They also are forgetting that a good portion of the population have control issues.
 
2018-01-13 12:32:04 AM  

mjjt: Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.


The car i'm driving today was made in 2004.  Unless the govt is buying me a new self driving car i expect it will take a lot longer than that.

Remember re: insurance costs that after a certain point cars get relatively cheaper to insure (assuming they're not 'antique' or 'show') b/c they're worth basically nothing.  You're just insuring liability and if you total it it's just written off.  a new self-driver might be cheaper to insure than a new manual-driver but it won't be cheaper than a 10 y/o manual-drive.

Public opinion and regulation isn't going to go far for people that don't have the money to buy a shiny new car every 2-3 years.
 
2018-01-13 12:42:23 AM  

NotARocketScientist: They also are forgetting that a good portion of the population have control issues.


And those control issues lead to delusions of superiority. Which, in turn leads to asinine statements like

Until the computer can adjust for 100% of the stuff a good human driver does, I'm not getting into a vehicle that a human rider can't take control of.

b/c obviously no human driver accomplishes these tasks at anywhere near a 100% rate of success.  and we are already at a point where the software is accomplishing them at a higher safety margin than human drivers.

b/c we live in that mystical land where every driver is 'above average'.
just like every driver's kid is 'above average' in school too i bet.
 
2018-01-13 12:43:32 AM  
I KIND of have a self driving car... The e-brake doesn't work well and it likes to pop out of first.
 
kab
2018-01-13 01:10:44 AM  

Sim Tree: HotIgneous Intruder: Forgetting that people like to drive...

I don't.


You're everyone.  Isn't that cool?
 
kab
2018-01-13 01:11:44 AM  

Nonrepeating Rotating Binary: Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.


Yep, we'll have to bookmark this article to point and laugh at in a few years.
 
2018-01-13 01:23:02 AM  

oopsboom: mjjt: Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

The car i'm driving today was made in 2004.  Unless the govt is buying me a new self driving car i expect it will take a lot longer than that.

Remember re: insurance costs that after a certain point cars get relatively cheaper to insure (assuming they're not 'antique' or 'show') b/c they're worth basically nothing.  You're just insuring liability and if you total it it's just written off.  a new self-driver might be cheaper to insure than a new manual-driver but it won't be cheaper than a 10 y/o manual-drive.

Public opinion and regulation isn't going to go far for people that don't have the money to buy a shiny new car every 2-3 years.


People assume that past models of new tech replacing old will apply to AVs. It won't.

Nobody's going to confiscate your 2004 car. You will simply be discouraged from using it.

Insurance premiums are based on liability, which at the moment are fairly evenly distributed over all vehicles, bc insurance companies can't predict who will have accidents (obviously loadings on new drivers, people with driving offences etc). But with AVs, the stats will show that 99% of accidents come down to human error, so all human controlled cars will see premiums rise dramatically.bc that's where all the insurer's costs are.

Regulators will help the process along bc they can see huge savings if eliminate accidents. So you'll see freeway lane segregation, with AVs given the fast lanes and humans one single lane. So you'll be crawling along in your slow lane, watching the tightly packed convoys of AVs zipping past at speed. Won't take many days of that scenario to convert most commuters, at which stage all human controlled cars will be banned from freeway during rush hours.

Public opinion will come into play as soon as everyone realises it's human drivers causing the accidents or delays. They will simply refuse to share the roads with the dangerous vehicles, just as people today refuse to share rooms with smokers.

So you shd understand that you can keep your car as long as you like, but there will be a diminishing number of places and times you can use it.
 
2018-01-13 02:15:26 AM  
I already use a self driving train frequently and have for years, so a kick I am getting.

CMU went coast to coast with a self driving car  back in 1999?  There was a driver, but he only touched the wheel 4 times, none for accident prevention. Now it's about 19 years later.  OF COURSE this shiat works.

Soon we'll have real Johnny Cabs.

I look forward to the three breasted ladies and Multipass next.
 
2018-01-13 02:53:49 AM  

mjjt: Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.


You are delusional.  Still.
 
2018-01-13 03:10:41 AM  

mjjt: You now have a Big Three auto company saying it will mass produce fully autonomous vehicles (without steering wheels and pedals) in 2019.


According to the article, it's a test batch.  They aren't mass producting it.
 
2018-01-13 03:40:38 AM  

NotARocketScientist: slackananda: I've always wanted a car vulnerable to hacking which I cannot myself control. Hooray!

this
Until the computer can adjust for 100% of the stuff a good human driver does, I'm not getting into a vehicle that a human rider can't take control of.


Exactly what situation do you think a human driver really needs steering wheel and pedals for?

If it's not an emergency situtation, then the user can just use the car's new interface.  Do you think the designers of these cars are not factoring in that drivers will sometimes need to make small adjustments or course corrections?  Do you really think GM, Toyota, Google, Uber, and others are throwing millionso of dollars at a car that can't park on grass?  Maybe you'll be able to point to where you want to drive on the viewscreen or a map, or something.  Or if the car has voice command, the user can say, "Wrong parking space. Park in the space to the left."  You don't need a wheel and pedals for that level of control.

If it is an emergency situation, well, the computer has faster reaction times and will avoid collisions a lot better than a human will.  At worst, the human might have to hit a big red button if they notice the car doesn't seem to be reacting to an developing situation.  But they probably won't because they'll be reading their kindle and not paying attention, and probably will never need to.
 
2018-01-13 04:21:42 AM  
I truly hope this is the "thing" that finally kills GM....

If this goes through, I am starting "The Red Barchetta" Car Company... Car's you can actually Drive....
 
2018-01-13 06:03:53 AM  

mjjt: Nonrepeating Rotating Binary: Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

You think all the driver operated cars they're still selling will be off the road in 7 years?

Don't quit your day job.

You fail basic reading comprehension:

won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

Some roads at some times, and country roads until mapped, will still be available for human controlled cars.


So....someone is buying autonomous vehicles for people? 7 years from now....I would say the majority of cars I see driving every day are older than 7 years.

I don't doubt the technology will be ready by 2025, but you're crazy if you think the average person has the money or inclination to make a purchase like that on a whim. I can't imagine autonomous vehicles will be cheap for awhile.
 
2018-01-13 06:10:14 AM  
At some point, these various companies will need to sit down with one another, put aside all their proprietary software and copyright nonsense, and come up with a way to make sure all these cars will work with one another. That alone will take a decade or two.
 
2018-01-13 07:38:47 AM  
Call me a Luddite, but...

img.fark.netView Full Size


I look forward to the automation part, but I want to be able to take over if necessary.
 
2018-01-13 08:57:49 AM  

Tchernobog: mjjt: Nonrepeating Rotating Binary: Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

You think all the driver operated cars they're still selling will be off the road in 7 years?

Don't quit your day job.

You fail basic reading comprehension:

won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

Some roads at some times, and country roads until mapped, will still be available for human controlled cars.

So....someone is buying autonomous vehicles for people? 7 years from now....I would say the majority of cars I see driving every day are older than 7 years.

I don't doubt the technology will be ready by 2025, but you're crazy if you think the average person has the money or inclination to make a purchase like that on a whim. I can't imagine autonomous vehicles will be cheap for awhile.


The majority if not all of the first generations of AVs will be fleet only for a Taxi or subscription model system.
 
2018-01-13 09:20:26 AM  

mjjt: We're just about coming to the end of these stories being 'news'

What this says very clearly is that AVs have gone past category of startups and experiments. And it's not something that will happen "maybe in the next 5 years".

You now have a Big Three auto company saying it will mass produce fully autonomous vehicles (without steering wheels and pedals) in 2019.

That's a year ahead of what even optimists like me were thinking in 2015 when we first started talking about AVs on Fark.

Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.


There is "optimist" and then there is "full on full of fantasy thinking".  You're not the optimist, nor do you live in reality.
 
2018-01-13 09:22:06 AM  

Tchernobog: mjjt: Nonrepeating Rotating Binary: Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

You think all the driver operated cars they're still selling will be off the road in 7 years?

Don't quit your day job.

You fail basic reading comprehension:

won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

Some roads at some times, and country roads until mapped, will still be available for human controlled cars.


So....someone is buying autonomous vehicles for people? 7 years from now....I would say the majority of cars I see driving every day are older than 7 years.

I don't doubt the technology will be ready by 2025, but you're crazy if you think the average person has the money or inclination to make a purchase like that on a whim. I can't imagine autonomous vehicles will be cheap for awhile.


He's wrong, but so are you.  The situation is that self driving safety features are mandated the very moment they prove to be safer than manual modes.   The trend is that computers are better drivers than humans in a geometrically increasing number of tasks and situations. Inclination won't matter when improvements like auto merge and following distance enforce become legally required to sell a new car.  Feature by feature, human control will be replaced by computer control.  Manual modes will attrit out on the usual 20 year car life cycle.

The driver automation revolution started in 2006.  It has produced dramatic results in saving lives and limbs on US roads. You can book the rest of it as a done deal.
 
2018-01-13 09:24:49 AM  

kab: Nonrepeating Rotating Binary: Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

Yep, we'll have to bookmark this article to point and laugh at in a few years.


I'll take that bet and go on record.
While I think that time frame is way off base for complete conversion to AV ( I don't think they can even manufacture that many, that quick), I do think it will be well underway. The key to acceptance is going to be the Cost/Convenience Factor and how well they can sell the subscription model. I think a healthy percentage of families (maybe 50%) will have a      subscription to use one on call if they can get them cheap enough. If cheap enough, they will be ideal as  second/third cars for a bigger family, transportation to a bar or road trip for a twenty something, or just reliable transportation for people struggling to make car payments.
 
2018-01-13 09:26:35 AM  

thrasherrr: Tchernobog: mjjt: Nonrepeating Rotating Binary: Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

You think all the driver operated cars they're still selling will be off the road in 7 years?

Don't quit your day job.

You fail basic reading comprehension:

won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

Some roads at some times, and country roads until mapped, will still be available for human controlled cars.


So....someone is buying autonomous vehicles for people? 7 years from now....I would say the majority of cars I see driving every day are older than 7 years.

I don't doubt the technology will be ready by 2025, but you're crazy if you think the average person has the money or inclination to make a purchase like that on a whim. I can't imagine autonomous vehicles will be cheap for awhile.

He's wrong, but so are you.  The situation is that self driving safety features are mandated the very moment they prove to be safer than manual modes.   The trend is that computers are better drivers than humans in a geometrically increasing number of tasks and situations. Inclination won't matter when improvements like auto merge and following distance enforce become legally required to sell a new car.  Feature by feature, human control will be replaced by computer control.  Manual modes will attrit out on the usual 20 year car life cycle.

The driver automation revolution started in 2006.  It has produced dramatic results in saving lives and limbs on US roads. You can book the rest of it as a done deal.


And this
 
2018-01-13 09:35:48 AM  
GM really got upset about this film, huh?

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-01-13 09:40:24 AM  

ReapTheChaos: At some point, these various companies will need to sit down with one another, put aside all their proprietary software and copyright nonsense, and come up with a way to make sure all these cars will work with one another. That alone will take a decade or two.


If the same clique of people are already cross-pollinating the company tech departments of the entire industry, that may not be as difficult as it sounds. An AV version of HTML5?
 
2018-01-13 09:40:25 AM  

slackananda: I've always wanted a car vulnerable to hacking which I cannot myself control. Hooray!


Just wait until someone goes for a "high score". I'm wondering where the liability is after the first twenty car pileup that results in scores injured and/or dead including a short bus full of nuns and toddlers.
 
2018-01-13 09:58:48 AM  

misterdonkeywhole: slackananda: I've always wanted a car vulnerable to hacking which I cannot myself control. Hooray!

Just wait until someone goes for a "high score". I'm wondering where the liability is after the first twenty car pileup that results in scores injured and/or dead including a short bus full of nuns and toddlers.


The only reason the pedals and steering wheel work on many cars on the road today is because the onboard computer allows them to. Hack the computer in just the right way, and... yeah.
 
kab
2018-01-13 10:32:21 AM  

TurnerBrown: kab: Nonrepeating Rotating Binary: Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.

Yep, we'll have to bookmark this article to point and laugh at in a few years.

I'll take that bet and go on record.
While I think that time frame is way off base for complete conversion to AV ( I don't think they can even manufacture that many, that quick), I do think it will be well underway. The key to acceptance is going to be the Cost/Convenience Factor and how well they can sell the subscription model. I think a healthy percentage of families (maybe 50%) will have a      subscription to use one on call if they can get them cheap enough. If cheap enough, they will be ideal as  second/third cars for a bigger family, transportation to a bar or road trip for a twenty something, or just reliable transportation for people struggling to make car payments.


I don't think they'll be cheap.  They'll start out most effectively as taxi services that you call rather than actually having at your own home 24/7, especially in limited areas where they'd actually make a ton of sense (someplace like Martha's Vinyard, which already frowns upon you bringing your own vehicle, would be a perfect candidate for such a thing).

Auto manufacturers already have their 2019-2020 models underway in terms of tooling, .  The following 5 years aren't going to see either the production or demand for hundreds of millions of these things..

EV's have been around for how long now, and still constitute about 1% of all vehicle sales in the US.

Getting folks to move to all electric is far less of a demand than getting folks to give up their control.
 
2018-01-13 11:41:40 AM  
The_Homeless_Guy:

As a cyclist I would enjoy this. However now a one or two hour commute wouldn't be so bad. I could easily spend the two hours in the car prepping for my day and the two hours getting back answering calls and finishing documentation.  The exburbs will definitely see a revival.

I think I would like a driverless car. As others have said above, they will probably start off as something in a fleet form, where you request it to come and get you and take you to the bar/airport/etc. Currently (for the past 8 years), I bus/walk/bike to work, and my car sits in a parking lot doing nothing but collecting money for the insurance company. I drive it maybe twice a week to the store or some quick errands. If I could have a subscription to a service that is less than my insurance, it would be great. (And yeah, I could ditch my car and just use Uber/cabs, but I don't want to have to small talk.)

But your comment raised an idea - I wonder if in driverless cars, they will have all the seats facing the middle, like the back of a stretch limo. You could maybe rotate the front seats, but if you don't have to drive, there really isn't any reason to face forward. You could easily have small meetings in the car during commutes, and all the talking wouldn't have to have one person looking at the people in the backseat through the rearview mirror and yelling so they can hear.
 
2018-01-13 12:56:59 PM  

mjjt: We're just about coming to the end of these stories being 'news'

What this says very clearly is that AVs have gone past category of startups and experiments. And it's not something that will happen "maybe in the next 5 years".

You now have a Big Three auto company saying it will mass produce fully autonomous vehicles (without steering wheels and pedals) in 2019.

That's a year ahead of what even optimists like me were thinking in 2015 when we first started talking about AVs on Fark.

Which leads to another prediction - the transition will happen a lot faster than many expect. Through a combination of regulation, insurance costs, and public opinion, human controlled vehicles won't be running on freeways and most city streets after 2025.


Hah, like hell. Are YOU going to buy a used car to replace mine in 7 years?
 
2018-01-13 01:12:04 PM  

kab: I don't think they'll be cheap.  They'll start out most effectively as taxi services that you call rather than actually having at your own home 24/7


Exactly, an individual car will cost more than current cars but with the subscription model and self driving cars, one car can service 10? 20?, 30? users. The crunch time is rush hours, but with more acceptance, and economic and social influence to reduce wasted time and energy, I believe most businesses will flex their hours more. Or stagger times. Or just require everyone to work 10 hours.
 
2018-01-13 01:43:51 PM  
Nonrepeating Rotating Binary:
kab:
aerojockey:
Dedmon:


Yep I understand. When, in 2015 I started predicting here that AVs would be available for Joe Sixpack by 2020, I got exactly the same reaction - the abuse (delusional/crazy/insane) anger (they'll take my steering wheel when they pry it from my cold dead hands/we'll start a protest group to stop them, everyone will join) and denial (it's just not possible)

The critics were much the same 3 years ago - they'd just come to the issue and had spent little time thinking about it or the consequences, so all they had to offer was stuff easily refuted.

And here we are again
 
2018-01-13 02:30:36 PM  
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-01-13 02:38:33 PM  
Right now you have to post a $1 million cash bond with a state government to own a single AV and you are confined to driving in that one state.

Insurance companies can't offer policies until there is enough data to understand the long term liabilities that they have, and that will require enough court cases to see how juries view ownership. Is the car owner specifically liable for decisions made by the vehicle? Or will that be placed on the manufacturers as well?

Also will the regulators require centralized command and control, essentially making your AV a radio controlled car? The NHTSA's comments seem to indicate that is their thinking.

Ultimately this is going to require federal laws to regulate AVs, and good luck getting that through our government right now. And I expect they will require a completelt different system than those being developed today.

For the foreseeable future these are going to be test vehicles and some fleet sales. But with regulatory and liability uncertainty there's unlikely to be many buyers for a while.
 
2018-01-13 02:38:37 PM  

TurnerBrown: kab: I don't think they'll be cheap.  They'll start out most effectively as taxi services that you call rather than actually having at your own home 24/7

Exactly, an individual car will cost more than current cars but with the subscription model and self driving cars, one car can service 10? 20?, 30? users. The crunch time is rush hours, but with more acceptance, and economic and social influence to reduce wasted time and energy, I believe most businesses will flex their hours more. Or stagger times. Or just require everyone to work 10 hours.


That would work great in a totalitarian society with central control of the economy.
 
2018-01-13 02:41:43 PM  

BolloxReader: Right now you have to post a $1 million cash bond with a state government to own a single AV and you are confined to driving in that one state.

Insurance companies can't offer policies until there is enough data to understand the long term liabilities that they have, and that will require enough court cases to see how juries view ownership. Is the car owner specifically liable for decisions made by the vehicle? Or will that be placed on the manufacturers as well?

Also will the regulators require centralized command and control, essentially making your AV a radio controlled car? The NHTSA's comments seem to indicate that is their thinking.

Ultimately this is going to require federal laws to regulate AVs, and good luck getting that through our government right now. And I expect they will require a completelt different system than those being developed today.

For the foreseeable future these are going to be test vehicles and some fleet sales. But with regulatory and liability uncertainty there's unlikely to be many buyers for a while.


Much like with gun control, other nations will figure it out reasonably well, and we will be that one dumb place that still has high homicide rates from gun incidents and vehicle accidents.
 
2018-01-13 03:01:46 PM  

Raoul Eaton: TurnerBrown: kab: I don't think they'll be cheap.  They'll start out most effectively as taxi services that you call rather than actually having at your own home 24/7

Exactly, an individual car will cost more than current cars but with the subscription model and self driving cars, one car can service 10? 20?, 30? users. The crunch time is rush hours, but with more acceptance, and economic and social influence to reduce wasted time and energy, I believe most businesses will flex their hours more. Or stagger times. Or just require everyone to work 10 hours.

That would work great in a totalitarian society with central control of the economy.


Original in a society where there are several deep pocketed business entities that stand to make trillions of dollars and effectively control transportation by "convincing" politicians to put into place policies to "help the common man" be safer and save money.
 
2018-01-13 03:04:27 PM  
Or in, not original.
/computer error, or human?
 
2018-01-13 03:22:38 PM  

mjjt: Nonrepeating Rotating Binary:
kab:
aerojockey:
Dedmon:

Yep I understand. When, in 2015 I started predicting here that AVs would be available for Joe Sixpack by 2020, I got exactly the same reaction - the abuse (delusional/crazy/insane) anger (they'll take my steering wheel when they pry it from my cold dead hands/we'll start a protest group to stop them, everyone will join) and denial (it's just not possible)


Wow.  So you're usng your incorrect predicion about 2020 to justify your even more ridiculous prediciont about 2025?
 
2018-01-13 04:49:54 PM  
Nice headline, Subs
 
2018-01-13 05:34:20 PM  

aerojockey: Wow.  So you're usng your incorrect predicion about 2020 to justify your even more ridiculous prediciont about 2025?


img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-01-13 05:54:10 PM  

BolloxReader: Right now you have to post a $1 million cash bond with a state government to own a single AV and you are confined to driving in that one state.

Insurance companies can't offer policies until there is enough data to understand the long term liabilities that they have, and that will require enough court cases to see how juries view ownership. Is the car owner specifically liable for decisions made by the vehicle? Or will that be placed on the manufacturers as well?

Also will the regulators require centralized command and control, essentially making your AV a radio controlled car? The NHTSA's comments seem to indicate that is their thinking.

Ultimately this is going to require federal laws to regulate AVs, and good luck getting that through our government right now. And I expect they will require a completelt different system than those being developed today.

For the foreseeable future these are going to be test vehicles and some fleet sales. But with regulatory and liability uncertainty there's unlikely to be many buyers for a while.


That's the beauty of the situation--there doesn't have to be any buyers.  Just renters/subscribers.

An AV is nothing more than a taxicab whose flesh-and-blood driver has been replaced by one made of silicon and electrons.  Taxi fleets have been operating since the days of horse-drawn carriages; we've become very good at regulating them.  It will only require some tweaking of the laws currently governing "for hire" vehicles to adapt them to AVs.
 
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