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(Guardian)   2018: The year of the earthquake   ( theguardian.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, intense earthquakes, Earth, Earthquake, intense seismic activity, Earthquakes, Bilham, major earthquakes, rotation  
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1769 clicks; posted to Geek » on 20 Nov 2017 at 12:01 AM (34 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



27 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2017-11-19 07:22:41 PM  
Fortunately, we have excellent federal disaster response in place.

/ we're screwed
 
2017-11-19 09:16:33 PM  
The best disaster response. People tell me. They say it's wonderful. The best they've ever seen.
Unless you're surrounded by big water. Or land. Or air.

The best.
 
2017-11-19 10:42:51 PM  
At least the Earth is slowing  down so we can hop off.
 
2017-11-20 12:13:37 AM  
I guess I picked the wrong year to move back to Japan.

/used to be able to sleep through a 5.2
//used to be able to not shiat my pants during a 6.1 while on the 30th floor
///no promises this time around
 
2017-11-20 12:14:49 AM  
i.imgur.comView Full Size
 
2017-11-20 12:47:20 AM  
img.fark.netView Full Size


So you're saying I should invest in Liquid Karma?
 
2017-11-20 12:47:32 AM  

kyuzokai: I guess I picked the wrong year to move back to Japan.

/used to be able to sleep through a 5.2
//used to be able to not shiat my pants during a 6.1 while on the 30th floor
///no promises this time around


I wish is researched the Cascadia Subduction Zone before I moved to Seattle...
 
2017-11-20 12:54:34 AM  

DeadPuppySociety: kyuzokai: I guess I picked the wrong year to move back to Japan.

/used to be able to sleep through a 5.2
//used to be able to not shiat my pants during a 6.1 while on the 30th floor
///no promises this time around

I wish is researched the Cascadia Subduction Zone before I moved to Seattle...


Yeah, that one is going to be a shiatshow. I don't see how it's not going to be the biggest disaster in US history.
Waiting for a big one in SF. I think my house will be fine. I retrofitted with a new foundation, sheer walls and a big steel frame. My house will actually probably hold up the neighbor's houses.
 
2017-11-20 01:06:01 AM  

DeadPuppySociety: kyuzokai: I guess I picked the wrong year to move back to Japan.

/used to be able to sleep through a 5.2
//used to be able to not shiat my pants during a 6.1 while on the 30th floor
///no promises this time around

I wish is researched the Cascadia Subduction Zone before I moved to Seattle...


Odds are it won't occur in the next 100 years.
 
2017-11-20 01:17:25 AM  

DeadPuppySociety: kyuzokai: I guess I picked the wrong year to move back to Japan.

/used to be able to sleep through a 5.2
//used to be able to not shiat my pants during a 6.1 while on the 30th floor
///no promises this time around

I wish is researched the Cascadia Subduction Zone before I moved to Seattle...


Damn. That's pretty scary reading. I'm generally somewhat thankful of the many small quakes we get here, hoping they're relieving pressure and preventing "The Big One".

Here's a similar doomsday quake cheatsheet for Japan: TL;DR 70% chance of 8.0+ within 30 years. Thankfully, we're probably more prepared and quake proof than anyplace on the planet, but like Tyson said "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
Fark won't link it for some reason, but it's at: ig.ft.com/sites/japan-tsunami/

On a side note: side to side motion is unsettling, but up/down motion (somewhat rare)  is sphincter clenching. Not a fan. No sir. I don't like it.
 
2017-11-20 01:22:59 AM  
It sure has been awfully quiet seismically all the 19 years since I returned to San Francisco.........
 
2017-11-20 01:30:01 AM  
I submit this link for anyone interested in what is happening here, & don't feel like pounding their heads on a guardian website. (while shaking my fist at subby for linking to the guardian for a science article).
 
2017-11-20 02:10:22 AM  

Xzano: I submit this link for anyone interested in what is happening here, & don't feel like pounding their heads on a guardian website. (while shaking my fist at subby for linking to the guardian for a science article).


Why, did guardian misinterpreted this new theory?
 
2017-11-20 02:14:27 AM  
Is this one of those things where correlation is confused for causation?
 
2017-11-20 02:17:10 AM  
i.pinimg.comView Full Size


And soon a typhoon will follow.
 
2017-11-20 02:41:55 AM  
New Linux build?
 
2017-11-20 03:45:26 AM  

kyuzokai: I guess I picked the wrong year to move back to Japan.

/used to be able to sleep through a 5.2
//used to be able to not shiat my pants during a 6.1 while on the 30th floor
///no promises this time around


We SoCal residents are similar.  I've definitely slept through a few 5.x quakes.  Even my cat doesn't care: she was lying on top of me when a 5.3 hit and didn't even flinch.
 
2017-11-20 03:49:10 AM  

wax_on: DeadPuppySociety: kyuzokai: I guess I picked the wrong year to move back to Japan.

/used to be able to sleep through a 5.2
//used to be able to not shiat my pants during a 6.1 while on the 30th floor
///no promises this time around

I wish is researched the Cascadia Subduction Zone before I moved to Seattle...

Yeah, that one is going to be a shiatshow. I don't see how it's not going to be the biggest disaster in US history.
Waiting for a big one in SF. I think my house will be fine. I retrofitted with a new foundation, sheer walls and a big steel frame. My house will actually probably hold up the neighbor's houses.


Oh yeah, it'll be Mad Max, PNW edition. I've read they expect it will take a month just to get relief flights up and running. What'll be REALLY cool is if it sets off all the Cascade volcanoes. As has been stated, the likelihood of it occurring while I'm in the area, let alone my lifetime, is pretty small. Still, it's hard not to think about from time to time.
 
2017-11-20 05:39:16 AM  
This was run past the legendary TheEarthquakeGuy over on Reddit, and his response was "Yeah, hasn't been peer reviewed, so I'm not going to be too concerned yet."
 
2017-11-20 07:30:19 AM  
Damn you Moon!  This is all your fault...
/And has been for a loooooooong time.
 
2017-11-20 10:04:18 AM  
there sure was a lot of "could", "should", and "might" in that article
 
2017-11-20 10:40:32 AM  

DeadPuppySociety: kyuzokai: I guess I picked the wrong year to move back to Japan.

/used to be able to sleep through a 5.2
//used to be able to not shiat my pants during a 6.1 while on the 30th floor
///no promises this time around

I wish is researched the Cascadia Subduction Zone before I moved to Seattle...


Just be glad that you moved to Seattle and not Ocean Shores.
 
2017-11-20 10:42:36 AM  

Cpl.D: Is this one of those things where correlation is confused for causation?


Pretty much. But the theory has a logical basis. Large masses in the crust move up, earth slows down. Large masses move down, earth speeds up.

We can detect the speeding and slowing down, so something is moving somewhere. It's the timing and the causation of events they're trying to figure out.

Relatively speaking, continental crust is lighter than oceanic crust, so when oceanic crust gets subducted, earth speeds up. It pushes the mountains higher, slowing things down - so it should be a wash, right? Apparently not, which is why my spitballing on this fails.

I think it has to do with a time lag between events.

/haven't read the paper, don't have a clue how any of this works.jpg
 
2017-11-20 10:50:54 AM  

Cpl.D: Is this one of those things where correlation is confused for causation?


YUP
 
2017-11-20 10:51:50 AM  

Cpl.D: Is this one of those things where correlation is confused for causation?


If the conclusion was that there definitely would be more earthquakes this year, then ya...  But they've created a model to explain the correlation, and have stated that next year will be a test for their model.  So I wouldn't say they're confusing correlation for causation, but rather trying to explain the correlation through a disprovable causal model.
 
2017-11-20 01:40:56 PM  
Today's highlight an M7.0 near New Caledonia in the Pacific...
 
2017-11-20 05:30:00 PM  

SwiftFox: Today's highlight an M7.0 near New Caledonia in the Pacific...


#PrayForFedyz
 
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