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(Washington Post)   After Tuesday's results, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee now lists Rep. Lift Bro as a potential seat to flip   ( washingtonpost.com) divider line
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1665 clicks; posted to Politics » on 09 Nov 2017 at 2:51 PM (36 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2017-11-09 12:36:28 PM  
Not a big surprise. The scratch list I came up with yesterday includes about 240 flippable House seats.
 
2017-11-09 12:50:41 PM  
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA!!!!!!

This has been a good week, all things considered.
 
2017-11-09 12:55:59 PM  
He's just going to bear hug Trump through his entire election.
 
2017-11-09 01:02:55 PM  
Not before he is implicated in the Mueller investigation, please.
 
2017-11-09 01:12:18 PM  

Markoff_Cheney: Not before he is implicated in the Mueller investigation, please.


I can't wait to find out how he was recorded trying to hush up Kevin McCarthy.
 
2017-11-09 01:12:33 PM  
I'm sure Wisconsin is feeling some SERIOUS buyer's remorse right now about the whole Trump thing.  Not surprising they may want to take it out on Ryan.
 
2017-11-09 01:15:48 PM  
There was an article I read...last week?...whispering the idea that Ryan may retire, but I don't think he's done enough damage to the country yet to follow through.

I can't find the article now but I thought it was noteworthy that it didn't bring up IronStache once.  I hope he pummels Ryan.
 
2017-11-09 01:22:09 PM  

Ambivalence: I'm sure Wisconsin is feeling some SERIOUS buyer's remorse right now about the whole Trump thing.  Not surprising they may want to take it out on Ryan.

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2017-11-09 01:54:34 PM  
Doubt it but my pants are getting tight just thinking about it.

/must fap
 
2017-11-09 02:07:09 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Doubt it but my pants are getting tight just thinking about it.

/must fap


Ryan crushed his opponent by 35% in 2016, far outperforming Trump's own strong 11% win in the district.  In 2012, Ryan had an 11.5% victory.  So, it would indeed seem a bit of a longshot.  Unless something crazy in district polling happens next year, I'd think the DCCC would be better off spending elsewhere.
 
2017-11-09 02:54:55 PM  
You don't flip seats in the weight room, brah.
 
2017-11-09 02:55:18 PM  
Heck yeah.

Let's start thinking that ALL the seats are flippable and get to work.
 
2017-11-09 02:58:59 PM  
Seems more likely he would get beaten in a primary. That district is a pretty hard R
 
2017-11-09 03:00:32 PM  
I'm wondering if the Democrats will even get a chance.

Every conservative I know in real life hates that man's guts.  Wouldn't be surprised if he had a serious primary challenge.
 
2017-11-09 03:02:01 PM  

Soup4Bonnie: There was an article I read...last week?...whispering the idea that Ryan may retire, but I don't think he's done enough damage to the country yet to follow through.

I can't find the article now but I thought it was noteworthy that it didn't bring up IronStache once.  I hope he pummels Ryan.


If Ryan fails to get his tax cuts I could see that happening. He's only ever wanted one thing. If he can't get it as Speaker of the House with his party controlling both the legislature and the presidency then he's useless. Might as well retire and get that sweet lobbyist money.
 
2017-11-09 03:03:02 PM  
media.giphy.comView Full Size
 
2017-11-09 03:03:21 PM  
Paulie Brosevelt is in deep shiat. He's not going to get the tax reform passed, he's not going to repeal and replace. He's not pissed off the American electorate. He's pissed of the American elite.

Buh-bye, Brofessor Ryan.
 
2017-11-09 03:04:25 PM  
Trump's bodyguard just confirmed that Moscow sent Trump 5 hookers at the Ritz-Carlton, yet says Trump "refused" them... no word on whether the concept of denial of essence was used during his testimony.
 
2017-11-09 03:05:45 PM  
They should have been running "family man" adds this whole time.
 
2017-11-09 03:05:46 PM  

Ambivalence: I'm sure Wisconsin is feeling some SERIOUS buyer's remorse right now about the whole Trump thing.  Not surprising they may want to take it out on Ryan.


I used to live in his district. There is no chance of him losing his seat unless he leaves or dies. Then it will be filled by another republican.
 
2017-11-09 03:06:44 PM  
"Don't care. Became President."
 
2017-11-09 03:07:12 PM  
Don't be silly, Subby...no farking way that could happen.

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2017-11-09 03:07:43 PM  

Peter von Nostrand: [media.giphy.com image 480x360]


i.imgur.comView Full Size
 
2017-11-09 03:08:16 PM  
Perhaps the Ds could try to put this much effort and excitement into things as a rule maybe?
 
2017-11-09 03:12:23 PM  

BeesNuts: Heck yeah.

Let's start thinking that ALL the seats are flippable and get to work.


this this this this this this this this this this  this this this this this this this this this this this this this this this this

this is what we did in va. 100 seats open, we ran 90 candidates and we flipped 15 (with 4 more pending recount).
 
2017-11-09 03:14:01 PM  
Gerry Mander has his seat on lockdown. Plus there are always extra votes that can be found around Waukesha when needed.
 
2017-11-09 03:17:20 PM  

Diogenes: Ambivalence: I'm sure Wisconsin is feeling some SERIOUS buyer's remorse right now about the whole Trump thing.  Not surprising they may want to take it out on Ryan.
[img.fark.net image 480x444]


Pretty sure if Randy marsh was a real person that's what he would look like.
 
2017-11-09 03:18:00 PM  
Grew up near his district. He ain't going nowhere.
 
2017-11-09 03:22:41 PM  
Liberals to the GOP House Members in 2018:

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2017-11-09 03:22:44 PM  
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2017-11-09 03:23:40 PM  
Liftbro's comment: "We're with Trump" to be the biggest gift ever*
 
2017-11-09 03:25:10 PM  

Soup4Bonnie: There was an article I read...last week?...whispering the idea that Ryan may retire, but I don't think he's done enough damage to the country yet to follow through.

I can't find the article now but I thought it was noteworthy that it didn't bring up IronStache once.  I hope he pummels Ryan.


There was once a time I thought he was a shoo-in for the presidency, maybe right after Clinton. The press simply adores the guy. But now I think that's all over. Trump has plopped down and changed the trajectory of the country and Ryan has lost his place more than any high-stature Republican.
 
2017-11-09 03:26:19 PM  

Ambivalence: I'm sure Wisconsin is feeling some SERIOUS buyer's remorse right now about the whole Trump thing.  Not surprising they may want to take it out on Ryan.


Don't care. Those cheese farkers need to suffer. And if you think those morons will vote for a non treasonous bastard (aka Republican) I have a bridge to sell you.
 
2017-11-09 03:28:08 PM  

Satanic_Hamster: I'm wondering if the Democrats will even get a chance.

Every conservative I know in real life hates that man's guts.  Wouldn't be surprised if he had a serious primary challenge.


They'll primary the asshole and then vote in an admitted fascist. Doesn't matter. All we can do is wait for the farkers to start shooting. That's when the change will occur.
 
2017-11-09 03:31:41 PM  

The5thElement: Ambivalence: I'm sure Wisconsin is feeling some SERIOUS buyer's remorse right now about the whole Trump thing.  Not surprising they may want to take it out on Ryan.

I used to live in his district. There is no chance of him losing his seat unless he leaves or dies. Then it will be filled by another republican.


There was no chance of Trump being elected president either. Yet, here we are.
 
2017-11-09 03:35:41 PM  

ToastmasterGeneral: WalkingCarpet: Doubt it but my pants are getting tight just thinking about it.

/must fap

Ryan crushed his opponent by 35% in 2016, far outperforming Trump's own strong 11% win in the district.  In 2012, Ryan had an 11.5% victory.  So, it would indeed seem a bit of a longshot.  Unless something crazy in district polling happens next year, I'd think the DCCC would be better off spending elsewhere.


He's despised by Trumpers, now more than ever, and blamed for the Obamacare repeal failure as well as felony aggravated failing to Make America great Again, so expect them to massively under turn out.  You still have an uphill climb but not so far as you might imagine
 
2017-11-09 03:39:53 PM  

I'm an Egyptian!: Ambivalence: I'm sure Wisconsin is feeling some SERIOUS buyer's remorse right now about the whole Trump thing.  Not surprising they may want to take it out on Ryan.

Don't care. Those cheese farkers need to suffer. And if you think those morons will vote for a non treasonous bastard (aka Republican) I have a bridge to sell you.


I grew up in District 1 (which is considered a swing district), and Randy Bryce has more than a chance against Ryan. The people there are not unreachable, a fair many are broke blue-collar workers from just outside Milwaukee who hate Poncy McWhiteboy Ryan, who hasn't done a hard day's labor in his life. The area has been gerrymandered to include a lot of rich, white suburbs, but those flipped in VA.

It's possible, and I think better to try to swing it back than write it off.
 
2017-11-09 03:41:05 PM  
Trump gets elected and suddenly the Green Bay Packers are slumping and unlikely to be in contention for the post season for the first time in ages. What exactly do you have to say for yourself, LiftBro?

*sound of crickets*
 
2017-11-09 03:43:38 PM  

Ashraiel: I'm an Egyptian!: Ambivalence: I'm sure Wisconsin is feeling some SERIOUS buyer's remorse right now about the whole Trump thing.  Not surprising they may want to take it out on Ryan.

Don't care. Those cheese farkers need to suffer. And if you think those morons will vote for a non treasonous bastard (aka Republican) I have a bridge to sell you.

I grew up in District 1 (which is considered a swing district), and Randy Bryce has more than a chance against Ryan. The people there are not unreachable, a fair many are broke blue-collar workers from just outside Milwaukee who hate Poncy McWhiteboy Ryan, who hasn't done a hard day's labor in his life. The area has been gerrymandered to include a lot of rich, white suburbs, but those flipped in VA.

It's possible, and I think better to try to swing it back than write it off.


I hope you're righr. Under normal, fair circumstances,  I could see your point. But we are talking about conservatives. They have no values save victory. They were surprised on Tuesday, but will not be so again. They will rig the election however they need to.
 
2017-11-09 03:46:26 PM  

Ambivalence: The5thElement: Ambivalence: I'm sure Wisconsin is feeling some SERIOUS buyer's remorse right now about the whole Trump thing.  Not surprising they may want to take it out on Ryan.

I used to live in his district. There is no chance of him losing his seat unless he leaves or dies. Then it will be filled by another republican.

There was no chance of Trump being elected president either. Yet, here we are.


Very true. Trump also has a betrer chance of receiving the stigmata, monkeys flying out of his arse and me winning the powerball jackpot than Paul Ryan has of losing his seat.
 
2017-11-09 03:51:25 PM  

Ashraiel: I'm an Egyptian!: Ambivalence: I'm sure Wisconsin is feeling some SERIOUS buyer's remorse right now about the whole Trump thing.  Not surprising they may want to take it out on Ryan.

Don't care. Those cheese farkers need to suffer. And if you think those morons will vote for a non treasonous bastard (aka Republican) I have a bridge to sell you.

I grew up in District 1 (which is considered a swing district), and Randy Bryce has more than a chance against Ryan. The people there are not unreachable, a fair many are broke blue-collar workers from just outside Milwaukee who hate Poncy McWhiteboy Ryan, who hasn't done a hard day's labor in his life. The area has been gerrymandered to include a lot of rich, white suburbs, but those flipped in VA.

It's possible, and I think better to try to swing it back than write it off.


This is the right answer. I still live in Ryan's district. This is not a district full of Trumpers. It has them, of course; every place does. But this is not eastern Ohio. It's wealthier suburbs and exurbs. People here voted for Trump because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Hillary. It may have been a mistake for Ryan to tie himself to Trump, because now, a good message from a good (D) candidate for this district just might flip enough people and/or turn out enough voters to win. It's an uphill battle, to be sure, but any more news of Republican failures - especially if the tax reform doesn't go through and/or screws the voters here - just might just do it. The Democrats are backing Bryce with actual money, so we'll see how it goes.

Ryan isn't going to be primaried by a Trumpster. The last guy who tried it got his ass handed to him.
 
2017-11-09 03:52:22 PM  

The5thElement: Ambivalence: The5thElement: Ambivalence: I'm sure Wisconsin is feeling some SERIOUS buyer's remorse right now about the whole Trump thing.  Not surprising they may want to take it out on Ryan.

I used to live in his district. There is no chance of him losing his seat unless he leaves or dies. Then it will be filled by another republican.

There was no chance of Trump being elected president either. Yet, here we are.

Very true. Trump also has a betrer chance of receiving the stigmata, monkeys flying out of his arse and me winning the powerball jackpot than Paul Ryan has of losing his seat.


Also, Foxconn is going to be in his district. If that place gets built, it's a huge feather in his cap.

Not trying to praise him by any means, but the guy is almost unbeatable.
 
2017-11-09 03:55:02 PM  

The5thElement: Also, Foxconn is going to be in his district. If that place gets built, it's a huge feather in his cap.


That Foxconn deal isn't going to amount to much long-term, but if he can time the announcements just right...
 
2017-11-09 04:03:19 PM  

Dan the Schman: BeesNuts: Heck yeah.

Let's start thinking that ALL the seats are flippable and get to work.

this this this this this this this this this this  this this this this this this this this this this this this this this this this

this is what we did in va. 100 seats open, we ran 90 candidates and we flipped 15 (with 4 more pending recount).


This this this this a thousand times more then exponentiated!

YOU LOSE EVERY SINGLE RACE YOU DON'T SHOW UP FOR ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED!!

Let's review, shall we?
2006, Dean, 50 state strategy - historic Dem wins
2008, Obama, contest every race - historic Dem wins
2010, DWS, national apology tour -horrible Dem losses
2012, Obama - retake Senate
2014, DWS - devastating losses
2016 - Fark 2016
2017 - double digit shifts toward Dems, clean sweep of special elections, ...

Do y'all wanna know one of the secrets of why those rural rubes vote (r) so much? Because the DLC let the rural Democratic party wither up and blow away. Because there is literally no organized voice in their community to say otherwise.
 
2017-11-09 04:06:55 PM  

Magorn: ToastmasterGeneral: WalkingCarpet: Doubt it but my pants are getting tight just thinking about it.

/must fap

Ryan crushed his opponent by 35% in 2016, far outperforming Trump's own strong 11% win in the district.  In 2012, Ryan had an 11.5% victory.  So, it would indeed seem a bit of a longshot.  Unless something crazy in district polling happens next year, I'd think the DCCC would be better off spending elsewhere.

He's despised by Trumpers, now more than ever, and blamed for the Obamacare repeal failure as well as felony aggravated failing to Make America great Again, so expect them to massively under turn out.  You still have an uphill climb but not so far as you might imagine


I'm just speculating, of course.  And I absolutely see a likely enthusiasm / turnout gap for Ryan in 2018.  It's just with that district, I'm not sure it's going to flip at all, but certainly not without significant money.  But if it does flip, it's definitely a wave that has likely already gotten the Democrats the majority, so I still say, spend the funds in more likely districts.
 
2017-11-09 04:17:56 PM  
blogography.comView Full Size
 
2017-11-09 04:25:49 PM  

erik-k: Dan the Schman: BeesNuts: Heck yeah.

Let's start thinking that ALL the seats are flippable and get to work.

this this this this this this this this this this  this this this this this this this this this this this this this this this this

this is what we did in va. 100 seats open, we ran 90 candidates and we flipped 15 (with 4 more pending recount).

This this this this a thousand times more then exponentiated!

YOU LOSE EVERY SINGLE RACE YOU DON'T SHOW UP FOR ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED!!

Let's review, shall we?
2006, Dean, 50 state strategy - historic Dem wins
2008, Obama, contest every race - historic Dem wins
2010, DWS, national apology tour -horrible Dem losses
2012, Obama - retake Senate
2014, DWS - devastating losses
2016 - Fark 2016
2017 - double digit shifts toward Dems, clean sweep of special elections, ...

Do y'all wanna know one of the secrets of why those rural rubes vote (r) so much? Because the DLC let the rural Democratic party wither up and blow away. Because there is literally no organized voice in their community to say otherwise.


DW farking S.  Can't wait to see where she fails upward to next.
 
2017-11-09 04:53:06 PM  

erik-k: Dan the Schman: BeesNuts: Heck yeah.

Let's start thinking that ALL the seats are flippable and get to work.

this this this this this this this this this this  this this this this this this this this this this this this this this this this

this is what we did in va. 100 seats open, we ran 90 candidates and we flipped 15 (with 4 more pending recount).

This this this this a thousand times more then exponentiated!

YOU LOSE EVERY SINGLE RACE YOU DON'T SHOW UP FOR ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED!!

Let's review, shall we?
2006, Dean, 50 state strategy - historic Dem wins
2008, Obama, contest every race - historic Dem wins
2010, DWS, national apology tour -horrible Dem losses
2012, Obama - retake Senate
2014, DWS - devastating losses
2016 - Fark 2016
2017 - double digit shifts toward Dems, clean sweep of special elections, ...

Do y'all wanna know one of the secrets of why those rural rubes vote (r) so much? Because the DLC let the rural Democratic party wither up and blow away. Because there is literally no organized voice in their community to say otherwise.


Wasn't 2010 Tim Kaine?
 
2017-11-09 05:08:03 PM  

raerae1980: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA!!!!!!

This has been a good week, all things considered.


img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2017-11-09 05:35:27 PM  
I did some poking around in the actual DCCC memo. Some of the more interesting facts (pulling the WI data from their charts):

Dem lead for generic House Vote: -4
Trump Job Approval Rating: 42% approve, 6% not sure, 52% disapprove
Speaker Ryan Job Approval: 47% Favourable, 7% not sure, 46% Unfavourable

That seems in the realm of "at least try to flip it" to me.
 
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