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(270 To Win)   Fark Electoral College Contest: post your best guesstimate of how the final electoral college map will look after Tuesday's election. Up for grabs: bragging rights for the next four years in the Politics tab   ( 270towin.com) divider line
    More: Spiffy, political sciences, u.s president  
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1479 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 1:39 PM (5 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»

Voting Results (Smartest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

2012-11-05 12:01:42 PM  
5 votes:
Whatever Nate Silver is saying.
2012-11-06 12:21:43 PM  
1 vote:
Link to Google Docs spreadsheet with all the predictions: Link
2012-11-05 05:55:04 PM  
1 vote:

Corvus: DamnYankees: Corvus: I believe 330 is.

I don't see how 330 is possible. Do you mean 332?

AM I looking at this wrong?

[i.imgur.com image 373x251]

It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

It looks like 330 but it is 332. 303+29 for Florida. Note the parallel 333 for the Omaha probability.
2012-11-05 03:03:05 PM  
1 vote:
farm9.staticflickr.comView Full Size
2012-11-05 02:24:23 PM  
1 vote:
Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.
2012-11-05 01:58:28 PM  
1 vote:
My prediction...

cubicdissection.comView Full Size
2012-11-05 01:47:19 PM  
1 vote:

DamnYankees: badhatharry: Romney: 341
Obama: 197

That doesn't add up to 538.

2012-11-05 01:43:52 PM  
1 vote:
Romney: 336
Obama: 197
2012-11-05 01:41:32 PM  
1 vote:

bartink: DamnYankees: DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9

I see you've talked yourself off the edge that you seemed ready to jump off of post-Denver. Good to see.

Don't confuse my intellectual confidence of the probably of an Obama win with the emotional terror that comes from thinking he might lose. I have both in ample amounts.
2012-11-05 12:24:48 PM  
1 vote:
Obama: 1
Romney: 1

Why yes. I am that annoying dick on The Price is Right who says everything is a buck.
2012-11-05 12:12:05 PM  
1 vote:
i.imgur.comView Full Size
2012-11-05 12:03:04 PM  
1 vote:

gilgigamesh: Well, yes as far as I am concerned, because this is the first time I've seen it. Although I guess they could just reup the previous thread.

They made the other thread red. I'm just saying they should have greened that one rather than greening one with 0 comments.

gilgigamesh: Anyway I agree with you. Obama 303, Romney 235.

Popular vote prediction for tie-breaking?
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