WombatControl: 1. Bimodal distributions in polling, when the results should be normally distributed.
WombatControl: 2. Early voting not showing the big D turnout the polls are indicating.
WombatControl: 3. Discrepancies in the state polls versus the national polls - which despite Silver's argument still exist.
WombatControl: All the polls assume a 2008-level turnout for Obama or bigger. But we can test that hypothesis against actual numbers now. And the actual numbers don't support that.
WombatControl: DamnYankees: WombatControl: That scenario is much more likely than Silver thinks.
WombatControl: BlueJay206: So CNN shows a tied race, while sampling D+11this is obviously bad news...for ObamaExactly.So Silver takes a set of polls he admits have generally leaned towards Obama, looks only at the toplines, and concludes Obama is a favorite to win.He's right about the correlation between the national popular vote and the Electoral College (something I note that many Fark Liberals™ didn't exist) - but that correlation says that if Romney can win by 1% or more in the popular vote, he's favored to win 270+ EVs and the Presidency.That scenario is much more likely than Silver thinks.(And as an aside, there was an article really hitting Silver hard based on his baseball prediction software - but I cannot for the life of me find it again. It gives a whole new perspective on how Silver operates...)
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