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(National Journal)   It's Tuesday: Time for the Democrats to start pretending the youth vote will save everyone   (nationaljournal.com) divider line
    More: Unlikely, President Obama, youth vote, Democrats, pollsters, demographics  
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714 clicks; posted to Politics » on 04 Sep 2012 at 3:52 PM (8 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2012-09-04 3:41:57 PM  
Be nice if youth would vote, yes.
 
2012-09-04 3:45:02 PM  
Strange, it feels like a Monday.
 
2012-09-04 3:47:06 PM  
You are right, submitter. The youth will not save him. I guess he'll just have to count on reality.

oi45.tinypic.comView Full Size
 
2012-09-04 3:48:53 PM  
Of course that was updated yesterday, and as submitter has pointed out it is now Tuesday. So anything could have happened, right?
 
2012-09-04 3:49:46 PM  

vartian: You are right, submitter. The youth will not save him. I guess he'll just have to count on reality.

[oi45.tinypic.com image 377x943]


shhhh, we need to make this appear to be a close race so people will tune in for the next few months. uneducated white women are the key to everything!
 
2012-09-04 3:55:41 PM  
Liberals: Voter ID laws disenfranchise the poor, the elderly and the students. Let's at least allow students to use state-issued student IDs.
Conservatives: No, then you're disenfranchising GOP candidates!
 
2012-09-04 3:55:51 PM  
It won't save RON PAUL

/got nothin'
 
2012-09-04 3:58:29 PM  

vartian: Of course that was updated yesterday, and as submitter has pointed out it is now Tuesday. So anything could have happened, right?


Everything was fine til Tuesday, but unfortunately for this mann American's voices carry.
 
2012-09-04 3:59:02 PM  
Better than relying on "elderly vote".
 
2012-09-04 4:01:28 PM  

Rapmaster2000: vartian: Of course that was updated yesterday, and as submitter has pointed out it is now Tuesday. So anything could have happened, right?

Everything was fine til Tuesday, but unfortunately for this mann American's voices carry.


saw what you did there.
 
2012-09-04 4:03:04 PM  
as a furriner, I have no dog in this hunt. But three years of someone in the White House who is evidently sane, intelligent and thoughtfully disinclined to destroy the planet in any of the many and varied ways that the US can, has been nice. More of that please, Americans. Fewer rapture-frenzied lunatic chicken hawks in future would also be a bonus.
 
2012-09-04 4:03:12 PM  
Rapmaster2000:

Everything was fine til Tuesday, but unfortunately for this mann American's voices carry.

Ugh. That's terrible. Also, why do the kids laugh at my yelling, but they're perfectly content to let me and others in my demographic pick their futures?
 
2012-09-04 4:03:55 PM  

Cosmic_Music: as a furriner, I have no dog in this hunt. But three years of someone in the White House who is evidently sane, intelligent and thoughtfully disinclined to destroy the planet in any of the many and varied ways that the US can, has been nice. More of that please, Americans. Fewer rapture-frenzied lunatic chicken hawks in future would also be a bonus.


you will be a slave to our whims and like it!
 
2012-09-04 4:04:19 PM  

Glicky: Better than relying on "elderly vote".


Guess what son....  In mid f*ck America , that's what's matters

/enjoy
 
2012-09-04 4:04:28 PM  
...and the black vote.
...and the Hispanic vote
...and the Jews, the Muslims, the...hell, let's just say ALL the non-Christians
....and the gay vote
....can't forget women. Women currently favor Obama over Mitt by a double-digit margin
...and senior citizens who don't appreciate Ryan's plan to gut medicare for their children

Did I miss anyone? Is "angry middle aged white guys" a big enough demographic to win an election? The GOP better farkin' hope so.
 
2012-09-04 4:05:50 PM  
Well, the democrats do know where to find all these youth voters

4.bp.blogspot.comView Full Size
 
2012-09-04 4:06:20 PM  

Brick-House: Well, the democrats do know where to find all these youth voters

[4.bp.blogspot.com image 240x240]


in the subway?
 
2012-09-04 4:06:37 PM  
That's OK, Romney just lost Virginia and probably the election. Virgil Goode made the ballot there.
 
2012-09-04 4:06:52 PM  

thomps: vartian: You are right, submitter. The youth will not save him. I guess he'll just have to count on reality.

[oi45.tinypic.com image 377x943]

shhhh, we need to make this appear to be a close race so people will tune in for the next few months. uneducated white women are the key to everything!


As much as I trust Nate Silver, you're being complacent.
 
2012-09-04 4:07:23 PM  

doremifaq: Rapmaster2000:

Everything was fine til Tuesday, but unfortunately for this mann American's voices carry.

Ugh. That's terrible. Also, why do the kids laugh at my yelling, but they're perfectly content to let me and others in my demographic pick their futures?


Perhaps they also hate clouds.
 
2012-09-04 4:08:06 PM  

The All-Powerful Atheismo: thomps: vartian: You are right, submitter. The youth will not save him. I guess he'll just have to count on reality.

[oi45.tinypic.com image 377x943]

shhhh, we need to make this appear to be a close race so people will tune in for the next few months. uneducated white women are the key to everything!

As much as I trust Nate Silver, you're being complacent.


Pointing out that it's not a close race is "being complacent"?

I call that "being reality-based"
 
2012-09-04 4:08:27 PM  
I think what the GOP fails to realize is the DNC is also playing the long game. The GOP is fighting tooth and nail for this one election with no thoughts to the future. Bonus: they're still losing.

The Medicare voucher for only the people younger than 55 is a perfect example. In 4 years, a whole bunch or of old folks will die (sadly that's the way it is) and you are going to have a whole bunch of people ages 55 to 59 how you were willing to sell them down the river.

The GOP have pushed away Latinos, blacks, gays, union and women even further. There are only so many old angry white people you can count on to vote for you in the future. What happens when the DNC runs a Southern white guy in 2016 (hypothetically), they are completely screwed.
 
2012-09-04 4:08:36 PM  
I never understood "enthusiasm" being such a factor in polling. Obviously showing up is huge, but once you're at the polling place your vote won't count extra if you pull down on that lever/punch that card/flush that toilet a little harder.

Obama just has to get the kids through the door. The usual Get Out The Vote stuff will do that. Exploit your celebrity connection, encourage peer pressure and the like. Or don't. Anyone who absolutely positively relies on the youth vote shouldn't be running for office anyway.
 
2012-09-04 4:09:01 PM  
Obama Weaknesses:

Rich White Racist Males from the South
Poor White Racist Males from the South
Evangelical Tinfoil Hatters from the South
Tea Party Tinfoil Hatters from the South

/guess what.....these folks will never vote for a black man.
 
2012-09-04 4:09:32 PM  
Interesting. Uneducated white women are one of my weaknesses as well.
 
2012-09-04 4:09:35 PM  
It's a day ending in "Y" time for Republicans to make a strawmans out of the actual positions of Democrats.
 
2012-09-04 4:09:45 PM  

GAT_00: That's OK, Romney just lost Virginia and probably the election. Virgil Goode made the ballot there.


It's not over, but it leaves Romney with a very, very small window. He has to take Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Wisconsin. I'm surprised the Republicans couldn't pull enough strings to keep him out
 
2012-09-04 4:09:57 PM  
oh shocked look.
the national journal with an article that paints obama's chances as dwindling.
my oh my and gosh-golly-gosh.
i had better start drinking from my romney coffee cup right now so i am in the groove with mitt

http://tinyurl.com/bqwhdac (google)
 
2012-09-04 4:10:15 PM  

The All-Powerful Atheismo: thomps: vartian: You are right, submitter. The youth will not save him. I guess he'll just have to count on reality.

[oi45.tinypic.com image 377x943]

shhhh, we need to make this appear to be a close race so people will tune in for the next few months. uneducated white women are the key to everything!

As much as I trust Nate Silver, you're being complacent.


it's not going to stop me from pointing out the many many reasons to vote for obama over romney, but let's be honest with each-other about reason articles like this are being written.
 
2012-09-04 4:10:50 PM  

hollyvvood: Interesting. Uneducated white women are one of my weaknesses as well.


welfare mothers make better lovers
 
2012-09-04 4:12:29 PM  

Bill_Wick's_Friend: ...and the black vote.
...and the Hispanic vote
...and the Jews, the Muslims, the...hell, let's just say ALL the non-Christians
....and the gay vote
....can't forget women. Women currently favor Obama over Mitt by a double-digit margin
...and senior citizens who don't appreciate Ryan's plan to gut medicare for their children

Did I miss anyone? Is "angry middle aged white guys" a big enough demographic to win an election? The GOP better farkin' hope so.


anyone on welfare, union, teachers, automotive workers, renewable energy workers, people under 55 who want Medicare at some point
 
2012-09-04 4:13:14 PM  

Lost Thought 00: GAT_00: That's OK, Romney just lost Virginia and probably the election. Virgil Goode made the ballot there.

It's not over, but it leaves Romney with a very, very small window. He has to take Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Wisconsin. I'm surprised the Republicans couldn't pull enough strings to keep him out


And both Colorado and Wisconsin are very unlikely to flip GOP. Yeah, it isn't over, but it just got a whole hell of a lot harder.

For those who don't know, Goode pulls around 5% of the vote in polls including him, but only in Virginia. He isn't known elsewhere. That 5% is almost all from Romney voters.
 
2012-09-04 4:13:25 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: The All-Powerful Atheismo: thomps: vartian: You are right, submitter. The youth will not save him. I guess he'll just have to count on reality.

[oi45.tinypic.com image 377x943]

shhhh, we need to make this appear to be a close race so people will tune in for the next few months. uneducated white women are the key to everything!

As much as I trust Nate Silver, you're being complacent.

Pointing out that it's not a close race is "being complacent"?

I call that "being reality-based"


Believing, suggesting, or even hinting that it's a foregone conclusion is "being complacent".
 
2012-09-04 4:13:58 PM  

Cosmic_Music: as a furriner, I have no dog in this hunt. But three years of someone in the White House who is evidently sane, intelligent and thoughtfully disinclined to destroy the planet in any of the many and varied ways that the US can, has been nice. More of that please, Americans. Fewer rapture-frenzied lunatic chicken hawks in future would also be a bonus.


You're a blacksmith?
 
2012-09-04 4:14:02 PM  

Lost Thought 00: GAT_00: That's OK, Romney just lost Virginia and probably the election. Virgil Goode made the ballot there.

It's not over, but it leaves Romney with a very, very small window. He has to take Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Wisconsin. I'm surprised the Republicans couldn't pull enough strings to keep him out


No way he gets Ohio.
 
2012-09-04 4:14:22 PM  

Glicky: Better than relying on "elderly vote".


I am sure some elderly could be swayed by reminding them of Ryan's "Ryancare" plan to ration healthcare with vouchers.
 
2012-09-04 4:14:48 PM  

The All-Powerful Atheismo: Believing, suggesting, or even hinting that it's a foregone conclusion is "being complacent".


I'd consider a 70% chance pre-convention that Obama wins the election pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point.
 
2012-09-04 4:16:13 PM  

mrshowrules: Lost Thought 00: GAT_00: That's OK, Romney just lost Virginia and probably the election. Virgil Goode made the ballot there.

It's not over, but it leaves Romney with a very, very small window. He has to take Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Wisconsin. I'm surprised the Republicans couldn't pull enough strings to keep him out

No way he gets Ohio.


It's likely he won't win any of those states, but if he loses just one Romney is toast
 
2012-09-04 4:17:26 PM  

thomps: As much as I trust Nate Silver, you're being complacent.

it's not going to stop me from pointing out the many many reasons to vote for obama over romney, but let's be honest with each-other about reason articles like this are being written.


No he is saying DON'T be complacent. Don't just ACCEPT that Obama is going to win. You have to continue campaigning and make sure you and everyone vote. Obama can still lose this if we get lazy and just assume he will win.
 
2012-09-04 4:17:59 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: The All-Powerful Atheismo: Believing, suggesting, or even hinting that it's a foregone conclusion is "being complacent".

I'd consider a 70% chance pre-convention that Obama wins the election pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point.


And you're being complacent by thinking so. Remember, Nate Silver's models and the 70% figure you cite are based on polls and how people feel NOW. A couple of percentage points of change in just a few places is not that hard to imagine, and that could swing the election.
 
2012-09-04 4:18:35 PM  

MindStalker: thomps: As much as I trust Nate Silver, you're being complacent.

it's not going to stop me from pointing out the many many reasons to vote for obama over romney, but let's be honest with each-other about reason articles like this are being written.

No he is saying DON'T be complacent. Don't just ACCEPT that Obama is going to win. You have to continue campaigning and make sure you and everyone vote. Obama can still lose this if we get lazy and just assume he will win.


This this and this.
 
2012-09-04 4:18:43 PM  

The All-Powerful Atheismo: And you're being complacent by thinking so. Remember, Nate Silver's models and the 70% figure you cite are based on polls and how people feel NOW. A couple of percentage points of change in just a few places is not that hard to imagine, and that could swing the election.


No it isn't.
 
2012-09-04 4:19:39 PM  

mrshowrules: Lost Thought 00: GAT_00: That's OK, Romney just lost Virginia and probably the election. Virgil Goode made the ballot there.

It's not over, but it leaves Romney with a very, very small window. He has to take Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Wisconsin. I'm surprised the Republicans couldn't pull enough strings to keep him out

No way he gets Ohio.


Colorado and Wisconsin are less likely than Ohio to go GOP.
 
2012-09-04 4:19:43 PM  
It's Tuesday: Time for Subby to inadvertently admit we all need to be saved from the Republicans.
 
2012-09-04 4:19:56 PM  

vartian: You are right, submitter. The youth will not save him. I guess he'll just have to count on reality.


Silvers Electoral Vote move by 9 points over the course of the week.
Does anyone know which state flipped?
 
2012-09-04 4:20:46 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: The All-Powerful Atheismo: And you're being complacent by thinking so. Remember, Nate Silver's models and the 70% figure you cite are based on polls and how people feel NOW. A couple of percentage points of change in just a few places is not that hard to imagine, and that could swing the election.

No it isn't.


Look, I came here for a good argument! An argument isn't just contradiction.
 
2012-09-04 4:21:19 PM  

Muta: Glicky: Better than relying on "elderly vote".

I am sure some elderly could be swayed by reminding them of Ryan's "Ryancare" plan to ration healthcare with vouchers.


The elderly (many of whom were around before Medicare) know what Medicare is, and they know what Medicare would be if Romney/Ryan get their hands on it. When you tell them that their goodies are locked in, then ask how they feel about altering the deal for younger folks, they still don't like it. By about a 3:2 margin.
 
2012-09-04 4:21:41 PM  

The All-Powerful Atheismo: cameroncrazy1984: The All-Powerful Atheismo: And you're being complacent by thinking so. Remember, Nate Silver's models and the 70% figure you cite are based on polls and how people feel NOW. A couple of percentage points of change in just a few places is not that hard to imagine, and that could swing the election.

No it isn't.

Look, I came here for a good argument! An argument isn't just contradiction.


yes it is.
 
2012-09-04 4:22:06 PM  

hollyvvood: Interesting. Uneducated white women are one of my weaknesses as well.


Not me. Stupid is a BIG turn-off.
 
2012-09-04 4:22:29 PM  

The All-Powerful Atheismo: cameroncrazy1984: The All-Powerful Atheismo: And you're being complacent by thinking so. Remember, Nate Silver's models and the 70% figure you cite are based on polls and how people feel NOW. A couple of percentage points of change in just a few places is not that hard to imagine, and that could swing the election.

No it isn't.

Look, I came here for a good argument! An argument isn't just contradiction.


The "Now-cast" is based on polls and how people feel NOW. The Nov-6 forecast is based on a lot of other things, including economic data. Additionally, the model weights polls based on averages and previous election accuracy.
 
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