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(YardBarker)   "The Packers play the Bears 4 times in two seasons. The Packers, being a much better team have an 80% chance of winning each game. What is the probability that the Bears win all four games?"   ( network.yardbarker.com) divider line
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2512 clicks; posted to Sports » on 16 Jun 2012 at 7:24 PM (5 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



75 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


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BrotherJew [recently expired TotalFark]
2012-06-16 02:04:10 PM  
Peanut can't do math.
 
Captain Steroid [TotalFark]
2012-06-16 02:48:37 PM  
Oh, that's an easy one!

ZERO. >:-)
 
RobertBruce
2012-06-16 03:10:27 PM  
Ha. Now that's some real life trolling I can support.
 
Relatively Obscure [TotalFark]
2012-06-16 03:15:28 PM  
Yep. That was one wildly successful troll.
 
basemetal [TotalFark]
2012-06-16 04:34:32 PM  
Meh, as a Raiders fan, I only ponder the chances of them winning more than six games a season.......

/it's hard to be a Raiders fan
 
Jamdug!
2012-06-16 04:37:17 PM  
Packers and Bears sounds like a gay bar.
 
teto85 [TotalFark]
2012-06-16 06:24:27 PM  
Chance of winning the first game times chance of winning the second times chance of winning the third times chance of winning the fourth game.

Chance of Bears winning any game = 20% or .2

Chance of Bears winning all four = .2 x .2 x .2 x .2 = .0016 or .16% of winning all four

Chance of Packers winning all four = .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 = .4096 or 40.96% of wining all four.
 
expobill
2012-06-16 07:27:52 PM  
with emo boy as their QB?
 
TheManofPA [TotalFark]
2012-06-16 07:44:04 PM  
That depends: Is Ditka solving the math problem?
 
Elephantman
2012-06-16 07:44:57 PM  
ts3.mm.bing.netView Full Size
 
The Smails Kid
2012-06-16 07:49:32 PM  
About equally as likely as subby using commas correctly.
 
Krustofsky
2012-06-16 08:05:29 PM  

TheManofPA: That depends: Is Ditka solving the math problem?


What if Mini Ditka was solving the math problem?
 
The Smails Kid
2012-06-16 08:12:08 PM  

Krustofsky: TheManofPA: That depends: Is Ditka solving the math problem?

What if Mini Ditka was solving the math problem?


One giant Ditka solving the math problem or twelve Mini Ditkas?
 
TheManofPA [TotalFark]
2012-06-16 08:14:20 PM  

The Smails Kid: Krustofsky: TheManofPA: That depends: Is Ditka solving the math problem?

What if Mini Ditka was solving the math problem?

One giant Ditka solving the math problem or twelve Mini Ditkas?


What if it is a regular sized Ditka, but while he's solving it, he has to drive the Bears bus?
 
Why Would I Read the Article
2012-06-16 08:14:36 PM  
The good old binomial formula from any statistics textbook oughta help us with this one.

P(k out of N) = ( N! / k!(N-k)!) * (pk)(qN-k)

where N and K are 4, P is .2 and Q is .8, says that the probability of the Bears winning all four games when they have a 20% chance of winning any single game is only .0016%

The Bears aren't bad, but I'd say that's about right.
 
Why Would I Read the Article
2012-06-16 08:19:45 PM  
Oh, and the 2nd part of the question (what is probability Bears win at least one game), is their odds of winning exactly all four + the odds of winning exactly three + odds of exactly two + odds of exactly one.

So .0016+ .0256+ .1536 + .4096 = .5904

So 59% of winning at least one.
 
Why Would I Read the Article
2012-06-16 08:20:32 PM  

Why Would I Read the Article: here N and K are 4, P is .2 and Q is .8, says that the probability of the Bears winning all four games when they have a 20% chance of winning any single game is only .0016%


I'm an idiot. It's .16%, not .0016%. Math is hard.
 
assjuice
2012-06-16 08:25:29 PM  

Why Would I Read the Article: Why Would I Read the Article: here N and K are 4, P is .2 and Q is .8, says that the probability of the Bears winning all four games when they have a 20% chance of winning any single game is only .0016%

I'm an idiot. It's .16%, not .0016%. Math is hard.


Yes you are. And your notation stinks too. You are missing some exponents and your variables change from upper to lower case for no reason.
 
kevinatilusa
2012-06-16 08:27:04 PM  
The problem's unsolvable as written. You can only multiply the probabilities if the results of the individual games are independent of each other, and I see no reason why that assumption is anywhere close to reasonable.
 
Mini Ditka
2012-06-16 08:33:13 PM  

Krustofsky: TheManofPA: That depends: Is Ditka solving the math problem?

What if Mini Ditka was solving the math problem?



i.imgur.comView Full Size
 
steveGswine
2012-06-16 08:36:06 PM  

kevinatilusa: The problem's unsolvable as written. You can only multiply the probabilities if the results of the individual games are independent of each other, and I see no reason why that assumption is anywhere close to reasonable.


It seems less reasonable than assuming (taking the classic example) that coin flips are independent. Coins don't get concussions.

However, the problem states clearly that the Packers have an 80% chance each time, and hey, you can only solve the problem you're given.
 
jaytkay
2012-06-16 08:36:51 PM  
Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?

I've always thought of it as a favorite enemy thing, not hatred.

/ At least we all hate Dallas
 
Lando Lincoln [TotalFark] [BareFark]
2012-06-16 08:48:10 PM  

jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?

I've always thought of it as a favorite enemy thing, not hatred.

/ At least we all hate Dallas


No. But the Packers fans are pretty goddamn smug for being a bunch of perpetual alcoholics.
 
Mini Ditka
2012-06-16 08:58:43 PM  

jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?



I for one respect the hell of out the Packers. That doesn't mean I want them to do well, but the history between Halas and Lambeau defines the sport. They hated each other, but like brothers.

And what a great all time W/L record between them: 184 games, and Chicago finally snapped the Favre streak to lead the record to 92-86-6. It was lobsided for a while there. Respect!!


/I do hate the Vikings though.......
 
rcf1105 [TotalFark] [BareFark]
2012-06-16 09:01:12 PM  

Why Would I Read the Article: Oh, and the 2nd part of the question (what is probability Bears win at least one game), is their odds of winning exactly all four + the odds of winning exactly three + odds of exactly two + odds of exactly one.

So .0016+ .0256+ .1536 + .4096 = .5904



The other way to think about this problem is that "The bears winning at least one" is the complement of "The bears losing all four." So you can calculate the easier probability that the bears lose all four and subtract from one:

1 - 0.8^4 = 1 - 0.4096 = 0.5904
 
The Smails Kid
2012-06-16 09:01:55 PM  

Lando Lincoln: But the Packers fans are pretty goddamn smug for being a bunch of perpetual alcoholics.


I...I...don't understand how these two should be mutually exclusive.
 
Boudica's War Tampon
2012-06-16 09:15:02 PM  
I thought the Bears lost all their games.

Every time I ask people "How about those Bears?" they always answer "They're losers."
 
LarryDan43 [TotalFark]
2012-06-16 09:18:47 PM  
Charles Tillman is a good guy. That's all.
 
Neeek
2012-06-16 09:20:52 PM  

Boudica's War Tampon: I thought the Bears lost all their games.

Every time I ask people "How about those Bears?" they always answer "They're losers."


Huh. I keeping hearing they are godless killing machines.
 
GrySovCob
2012-06-16 09:25:14 PM  
Only one guy in the thread has gotten it right. The rest of you...god help you. Don't do your own taxes.
 
Captain Steroid [TotalFark]
2012-06-16 09:29:50 PM  

GrySovCob: Only one guy in the thread has gotten it right. The rest of you...god help you. Don't do your own taxes.


Why, thank you. It's nice to be appreciated. ^_^
 
usernameguy
2012-06-16 09:47:11 PM  
No one got it right. The problem is unanswerable as written because ties are allowed in regular season games.
 
Hock
2012-06-16 09:52:00 PM  
Normally if you go one-on-one with another team you have a fifty-fifty chance of winning. But the Packers are genetic freaks, and they're not normal. You've got a 20%, at best, of beating them. And then you add in referees to the mix, your chances of winning drastically go down. See, the division games, at Lambeau, you have a 33 and 1/3 chance of winning, but I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, cause the Bears know they can't beat them, and they're not even gonna try. So Bears fans, you take your 33 and 1/3 chance, minus the Packers' 20% chance, and you've got an 8 and 1/3 chance of winning at Lambeau. But then you take the Packers' 75% chance of winning, if they were to go one-on-one, and then add 66 and 2/3 percent, the Packers have 141 and 2/3 percent chance of winning at Lambeau. You see Bears, the numbers don't lie.

i.imgur.comView Full Size
 
The Smails Kid
2012-06-16 09:55:00 PM  

usernameguy: No one got it right. The problem is unanswerable as written because ties are allowed in regular season games.


We've eliminated one Fark handle as Donovan McNabb's.
 
rcf1105 [TotalFark] [BareFark]
2012-06-16 10:01:29 PM  

Hock: You see Bears, the numbers don't lie.


You remember the Hiro Jima? Remember when the Pearl Harbor bombed the Germans? It's D-Day all over again, baby.
 
proteus_b
2012-06-16 10:03:50 PM  
1/625

probability is more useful to your common joe, as well as easier to learn, than algebra or trigonometry and yet our schools insist on teaching the latter in neglect of the former.
 
ozarkmatt
2012-06-16 10:07:06 PM  

kevinatilusa: The problem's unsolvable as written.


Yes, what if they have a playoff game sometime in the next two seasons? Then there will be more than four games.
 
MAYORBOB
2012-06-16 10:20:44 PM  
"It's a bullshiat question, it's impossible to answer."

Obscure?
 
robsul82 [TotalFark]
2012-06-16 10:21:54 PM  

MAYORBOB: "It's a bullshiat question, it's impossible to answer."

Obscure?


No, My Cousin Vinny is not obscure.
 
mltain
2012-06-16 10:24:16 PM  
But in the real world they will split the four game series. Talent and skill fall by the wayside in a rivalry game.
 
DrBear
2012-06-16 10:27:24 PM  
Players can't afford to hate anyone any more, because with free agency mucking up the teams each year, they may be your team next year.

Great Packers-Bears story. sorta - when George Allen broke his contract as George Halas's defensive coach to become head coach with the Rams, Halas was royally honked off and vented at a league meeting: "Nobody should hire George Allen! Allen is a cheat! Allen is a charlatan! He cannot be trusted!"

At which point Vince Lombardi leaned over to Rams owner Dan Reeves and said "Dan, sounds like you got a helluva coach."
 
alltim
2012-06-16 10:27:54 PM  
1.bp.blogspot.comView Full Size
 
ozarkmatt
2012-06-16 10:30:07 PM  

MAYORBOB: "It's a bullshiat question, it's impossible to answer."


That is the only line in that movie that was nonsense. There is no way a judge that has spent the entire movie preaching rules and decorum would allow that kind of language in his courtroom. Plus, Pecsi's character did such a good job in befriending the jury (such as calling the elderly black lady "dear") that such language would have alienated such a genteel jury.

/This has bothered me for years.
//Yes. I have no life.
 
ozarkmatt
2012-06-16 10:31:01 PM  
Oh, I guess my threadjack tags were removed. I didn't think of that.

Sorry for the threadjack.
 
Neeek
2012-06-16 10:50:39 PM  

robsul82: MAYORBOB: "It's a bullshiat question, it's impossible to answer."

Obscure?

No, My Cousin Vinny is not obscure.


No? How about "never tell me the odds!"?
 
demonfaerie
2012-06-16 11:07:26 PM  

Lando Lincoln: jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?

I've always thought of it as a favorite enemy thing, not hatred.

/ At least we all hate Dallas

No. But the Packers fans are pretty goddamn smug for being a bunch of perpetual alcoholics.


We are not smug, just alcoholics. I am not a huge sports fan, but I can say out of the Vikings, Packers, and Bears fans, the Vikings fans are worse. They are really big assholes, and honestly wish players to get hurt. Packers and Bear fans can go either way, they are either really considerate and just love the game of football, and respect other fans or they are just asses.
 
machoprogrammer
2012-06-16 11:39:28 PM  
I like how Tillman reacts like the problem was making fun of kids with cancer or something. It is just a freakin' football team.
 
captmingus
2012-06-16 11:48:54 PM  
Bears Fans...Packers Fans...they all die of heart attacks...they spent the last 50 years beating each other up so back neither of them could get out of the first round of the playoffs...Truth hurts

...some pretty good fights in the stands though


///packers fan
 
SubBass49
2012-06-17 12:20:32 AM  
"Order up! One order of butt-hurt with a side of self-righteous indignation and a Waaaahh-nilla shake! Mr. Tillman...your order is up!"
 
DicksWii
2012-06-17 12:50:30 AM  
Who's the bookie offering that bet? I wouldn't mind turning a dollar into 500.
 
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