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(USA Today)   Apocalyptic religious beliefs in my global warming science? It's more likely than you think   (blogs.usatoday.com) divider line
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1813 clicks; posted to Fandom » on 16 Dec 2008 at 5:47 AM (14 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2008-12-16 2:47:42 AM  
Don't waste your time on the long, rambling TFA, here's a synopsis.

* Evangelicals believe in apocalyptic rapture, which will save some people but doom most of humanity to a horrible death, but they think it's a cool idea, so they ignore environmental threats.

* Some uber-green-doomsayers have their own version of environmental collapse and are declaring environmental doomsday.

*It's unproductive in both cases to believe in doom-saying extremes, so let's work on moderate, positive directions to effect change.

The end.
 
2008-12-16 5:09:51 AM  
farking stupid farking nonsense...don't waste your time reading it....
 
2008-12-16 6:10:33 AM  
I'm not a doom-sayer, but when it's over 50, this close to Christmas, in CONNECTICUT, I tend to worry a little bit. In New England (the accent is not from 'round heah, fuhthah nohth)our seasons have been "summah", "fall", "wintah" and "mud".

Now we're skipping "wintah" and going straight to "mud" what's up with that?
 
2008-12-16 6:10:50 AM  
Climate change != apocalypse.

The earth is more than capable of supporting high(er) levels of CO2 and wildlife will adapt to it, as it has done in the past.

All it means is slightly higher sealevels (and the floods that result), more dessert encroachment in some places (others will see increased rainfall due to the formation of a tropical envoironment) and as a slight benefit some climates to cold and harsh to live in now will be habitable
 
2008-12-16 6:12:35 AM  

Lionel Mandrake: don't waste your time reading it...


Oooh nooooes! It is contrary to the established paradigm and must be CRUSHED.

"Some environmentalists have their own fixation with the apocalypse - just not the biblical one. This involves the wrath of nature and the ecological end times. But fear is an ineffective tool for any cause."

Okay, that's as far as I got. Fear IS an effective tool in manipulating politicians, who thrive on the stuff. It isn't an effective tool on the proles when they say 'meh' and go to fuel up the SUV.
 
2008-12-16 6:15:11 AM  
 
2008-12-16 6:18:44 AM  
Oh yeah, sorry people. Try zooming out.
 
2008-12-16 6:22:47 AM  
Someone was paid to write that? I can barely discern a single point from that rambling mess...

It's something about environmentalists having a vague similarity to religious extremists because they both believe that the future might contain Bad Stuff of a varying nature.

Why he needed multiple pages to get that out, I've no idea. Do newspapers still pay by the word?
 
2008-12-16 6:27:28 AM  

opiumpoopy: Lionel Mandrake: don't waste your time reading it...

Oooh nooooes! It is contrary to the established paradigm and must be CRUSHED.

"Some environmentalists have their own fixation with the apocalypse - just not the biblical one. This involves the wrath of nature and the ecological end times. But fear is an ineffective tool for any cause."

Okay, that's as far as I got


Yeah, apparently you only got as far as the first sentence of the person you quoted, too. Might want to try some Ritalin or something. I can't prove that it would make you look like less of a knee-jerk moron, but like climate change the facts seem pretty conclusive within the data available.
 
2008-12-16 6:33:17 AM  
Ahh, the apocalypse. Is there any better way to absolve yourself of a future? (short of suicide?) That's why apocalyptic cults are always a big hit, epoch after epoch, even though the big jizzum never hits.

2012, mannnnn.
 
2008-12-16 6:46:21 AM  

Fortune Happy Money Bag: Ahh, the apocalypse. Is there any better way to absolve yourself of a future? (short of suicide?) That's why apocalyptic cults are always a big hit, epoch after epoch, even though the big jizzum never hits.

2012, mannnnn.


I keep thinking a lot about revelations. Apparently, one third of the population will get carried away, buy only 144.000 Jews will be allowed into heaven. (According to the holy, ineffable and unedited Bible, that is. Unless this is one of those passages not to be read literally, but open to interpretation in accordance to these rules which came from someone, uhmmmm... just doublethink, it helps!)

Anyways. At the moment, I would gladly see the third of the global population who is "believers" of the Dubyah/Palin kind, raptured away from earth, so the remaining two thirds of us can party on and got on with the sciencing and the sexing and all those other fun things the Bible and the Fanclub of God is firmly opposed to.
 
2008-12-16 8:30:20 AM  
Cornwell: "so the remaining two thirds of us can party on and got on with the sciencing"

See, but they envy the weight and legitimacy of science. Hence they wrap their religion in the slick veneer of science by plagiarizing from what it tells us about our universe and integrating it into their theology as though it were part of it all along.

But if you accuse them of being anti-science they'll balk, and say "But I can't be anti-science, I accept evolution and therefore mine is a religious view fully compatible with science!" as if they want a medal for joining the 19th century 200 years late. Not that I don't appreciate the concession, but there's more to science than evolution, and when you bring up things like abiogenesis, cognitive neurobiology and its implications for the 'soul' (i.e. there isn't one) and what particle physics has told us about big bang cosmology (it requires no creator), they begin to waver. Suddenly they're not so accepting of science. It's as if conceding evolution was as far as they were comfortable with going, and they feel as if that should be enough to consider themselves men of both science and God.

But then how is the charge that they are anti-science ill founded? They are doing exactly what we've accused them of, selectively accepting those parts of science which they don't feel conflict with their beliefs, and rejecting those which do. They're no different in this regard from the creationists, they've just conceded evolution and are now obstinately holding their ground on the issue of the big bang and the source of human consciousness.

As Carl Sagan pointed out in my profile quote, science is kind of a package deal.
 
2008-12-16 8:50:02 AM  
I don't care about ether side.
 
2008-12-16 9:00:48 AM  
Didn't really see much about science in that article...congratulations to subby for "sneaking" yet another non sequitur headline and empty article blog through.
 
2008-12-16 9:29:38 AM  

abigsmurf: Climate change != apocalypse.

The earth is more than capable of supporting high(er) levels of CO2 and wildlife will adapt to it, as it has done in the past.

All it means is slightly higher sealevels (and the floods that result), more dessert encroachment in some places (others will see increased rainfall due to the formation of a tropical envoironment) and as a slight benefit some climates to cold and harsh to live in now will be habitable


Canada isn't a frozen wasteland, it's an investment!

/Off to buy some Nunavut
 
2008-12-16 9:52:07 AM  
FTA: They call for an end to the old disaster-is-coming talk in favor of a positive, solutions-oriented approach to the climate challenge.

Working Group III, stabilization wedges . . . your approach is nothing new nor is anyone except the fringe treating climate change (or 2012, or the Obama presidency, etc.) like the apocalypse, get over yourselves.
 
2008-12-16 10:10:17 AM  
Religions use fear and random apocalypse warnings to wield control over people.

Science uses fear and potential apocalypse warnings to get us to be more careful about what we do to our planet.

Article can kiss my ass.
 
2008-12-16 10:35:14 AM  
Science uses fear and potential apocalypse warnings to get us to be more careful about what we do to our planet.

...and then goes on to push the point a LOT farther, claiming that Bad Things Will Happen well above and beyond anything that could reasonably be expected from their own computer models, and using that as an excuse for massive social engineering that harks back to the less-successful socialist movements of the last hundred years.

Read some of James Hansen's (of NASA) comments. He's pretty much the point man for the movement, and says things like:

"Make no doubt, however, if tipping points are passed, if we, in effect, destroy Creation, passing on to our children, grandchildren, and the unborn a situation out of their control, the contrarians who work to deny and confuse will not be the principal culprits."

Destroying Creation? Gee, that's not Apocalyptic or anything, is it?
 
2008-12-16 10:54:03 AM  
cirby: "...and then goes on to push the point a LOT farther, claiming that Bad Things Will Happen well above and beyond anything that could reasonably be expected from their own computer models, and using that as an excuse for massive social engineering that harks back to the less-successful socialist movements of the last hundred years."

But it doesn't, this is disturbingly common Freeper paranoia. The reasoning is that if some new scientific finding has implications that would support a school of thought that they hate, then it's a plot by that group to push forward their agenda. An appeal to consequences in other words, "Global warming can't be true because the commies and hippies would love that, it would fit in with their views and they could use it to advance their goals." Try to spot what's wrong with that reasoning.

The changes proposed so far don't actually reduce our quality of life, they drastically enhance it. Newer transportation tech using lithium batteries, ultracapacitors and one day hydrogen fuel cells will be superior in many ways to existing internal combustion engines, no to mention the promise of projects like Ultra PRT and BetterPlace. Large scale investment in renewable energy means domestic electricity production with no overhead costs past the initial one and subsequent maintinence, which will mean an initial rise in taxes that everyone and their grandmother will cry bloody murder about but an eventual financial boon for the United States as it will greatly reduce the amount we must spend on imported fuels.

This movement to curb global warming has the potential to offer cheaper electricity, a healthier economy, a reduced national debt, independence from foreign oil, rapid progress in battery/fuel cell technology and a number of other ancilliary benefits. Yes the Starbucks Socialists will clap their dainty hands with glee, fully expecting the worldwide Communist revolution to occur. The anarcho-primitivist dropouts will thrill to the notion that we'll all return to living in mud huts and eating grubs. The Whole Foods hippies will flail their stickbug bodies in delight, expecting centers of industry to be abandoned and overgrown with forests of hemp. But guess what? None of that is gonna happen, any more than the world is going to come to an end because of an artificially exacerbated natural warming trend. Everyone's taking shiat to extremes along their own ideological lines. The bottom line is that an environmental imperative that catalyzes rapid technological development is a fantastic thing for everyone, and neither the McCarthy era neocon dinosaur nor the barefoot bearded bolshevik are going to have their way when all is said and done, because there's proportionally equal resistance to either agenda and the science itself is, believe it or not, neutral in the matter.

/My $3.50
 
2008-12-16 11:28:38 AM  

LowbrowDeluxe: Might want to try some Ritalin or something. I can't prove that it would make you look like less of a knee-jerk moron, but like climate change the facts seem pretty conclusive.


You seem like a nice person. Will you be my friend?

BatardAmericain: My Neighboorhood. I'm worried.


World average sea level's been going up a bit less than an inch per decade since they started measurements a couple of hundred years ago. Some places more, some places less. If you live less than a couple of inches above sea level, it might be time to move. Watch out for those high tides, too.
 
2008-12-16 12:00:43 PM  
Zamboro:
But it doesn't, this is disturbingly common Freeper paranoia.

The following was in my post.

"Make no doubt, however, if tipping points are passed, if we, in effect, destroy Creation, passing on to our children, grandchildren, and the unborn a situation out of their control, the contrarians who work to deny and confuse will not be the principal culprits."

You can pretend it's all "science," but a few minutes of talking to anyone who seriously believes in global warming brings out the True Religion, and you get preaching instead of honest science.

"Destroy Creation?" He's saying we could DESTROY THE WORLD. In a Biblical sense.

...and no, that's not in the computer models. You have to go to the non-credible extreme side of the worst-run simulations to even get effects that are truly bad. With the more-probable warming and effects, you have to go out nearly a hundred years to get results that most people would even be able to detect. Under current predictions, sea level rise at the beach will be almost enough to make it to your kneecaps in 90 years or so - if they're right. They haven't been right so far. Angels dancing on the head of a pin...

Hansen isn't some nobody, either. He's the point man for the sciency side of Global Warming. If Gore is the High Priest of the religion, Hansen is at least an archbishop.

On the other hand, some of the folks who question Anthropogenic Global Warming (no, it's not "Climate Change," it's global warming, since that's what it actually predicts) have some good, provable alternate theories. Like "the Sun got hotter, now it's getting cooler, we predicted it, now it's actually happening." The CO2-based global warming predictions tanked (we're about a half degree cooler right now than the predictions claimed we would be - no, you don't get to use the current post-dictions, look up the unedited ones from the 1990s, and don't forget the Hockey Stick), but the guys who pointed out that the Sun is a variable star and made actual testable predictions were, well, right.

NOTHING in actual AGW theory accounts for almost a decade of steady-to-cooling global temps. Sure, you can expect local cooling or heating, and you should expect one or two years of global variation, but once you pass four or five years of not-warming, the AGW numbers stop working. Seven to ten years? Your model isn't just incorrect, it's broken.
 
2008-12-16 12:15:55 PM  
cirby: "You can pretend it's all "science," but a few minutes of talking to anyone who seriously believes in global warming brings out the True Religion, and you get preaching instead of honest science."

Likewise, a few minutes of talking to anyone who seriously denies global warming brings out the conspiracy theorist.

cirby: "Destroy Creation?" He's saying we could DESTROY THE WORLD. In a Biblical sense."

Yes, that's correct. However it has no bearing on the truth value of the theory itself.

cirby: "...and no, that's not in the computer models. You have to go to the non-credible extreme side of the worst-run simulations to even get effects that are truly bad. With the more-probable warming and effects, you have to go out nearly a hundred years to get results that most people would even be able to detect. Under current predictions, sea level rise at the beach will be almost enough to make it to your kneecaps in 90 years or so - if they're right. They haven't been right so far. Angels dancing on the head of a pin..."

In what sense haven't they been correct? Because last thursday it was really cold where you live? Nobody credible ever said that The Day After Tomorrow was a farkng documentary, I don't even know where you got the "up to our kneecaps in 90 years" business, but based on the most conservative interpretation of the data it's still something worth worrying about. We definitely won't suffer measurably for it within our lifetimes but if you don't give a shiat about what happens to the species after you're gone, then the rest of the species should disown you.

cirby: "Hansen isn't some nobody, either. He's the point man for the sciency side of Global Warming. If Gore is the High Priest of the religion, Hansen is at least an archbishop."

So next are you gonna tell me that the government was behind 9/11 and staged the moon landings under orders from the secret jewish new world order, before linking me to your "Ron Paul in 2012" blog?

cirby: "On the other hand, some of the folks who question Anthropogenic Global Warming (no, it's not "Climate Change," it's global warming, since that's what it actually predicts)"

Climate change isn't a term meant to obfuscate or misdirect. It's an attempt to clarify for idiots who think that record snowfall in their bumpkin town means that the entire theory is a crock. Irregular weather all over the globe is part and parcel of what the theory predicts.

cirby: "have some good, provable alternate theories. Like "the Sun got hotter, now it's getting cooler, we predicted it, now it's actually happening." The CO2-based global warming predictions tanked (we're about a half degree cooler right now than the predictions claimed we would be - no, you don't get to use the current post-dictions, look up the unedited ones from the 1990s, and don't forget the Hockey Stick), but the guys who pointed out that the Sun is a variable star and made actual testable predictions were, well, right."

Let me guess, next you're going to drudge up the 1970s articles about "Global Cooling". You've been getting your information from partisan sources with an ideological agenda, sources which misrepresent the data to support an erroneous conclusion. This is a good place to start setting yourself straight.

cirby: "NOTHING in actual AGW theory accounts for almost a decade of steady-to-cooling global temps. Sure, you can expect local cooling or heating, and you should expect one or two years of global variation, but once you pass four or five years of not-warming, the AGW numbers stop working. Seven to ten years? Your model isn't just incorrect, it's broken."

Once again, I'm inclined to take the word of climate scientists over that of a random guy on the internet who thinks AGW is a communist plot.
 
2008-12-16 12:21:01 PM  
This is absolutely true, this summer I witnessed some extended family discuss the virtues of 'going green' and decided they didn't need to worry about it because "Jesus was coming soon."

Needless to say, I got all 'factual' and 'literate' and ruined the campfire mood.
 
2008-12-16 12:25:02 PM  

cirby: t a few minutes of talking to anyone who seriously believes in global warming brings out the True Religion, and you get preaching instead of honest science.

"Destroy Creation?" He's saying we could DESTROY THE WORLD. In a Biblical sense.


Global Warming:Religion::Tacos:Keys
 
2008-12-16 12:25:19 PM  
If Global Warming/Climate Change is, in fact, human caused, then once there is enough data to prove it(beyond reasonable doubt) change will occur.

Worse catastrophes have occurred to the planet than the past hundred years of cars, and worse still will occur.

Humans are pretty smart, when properly motivated. Once we know, the technology for cleanup will follow (as it will finally be profitable).
 
2008-12-16 12:33:40 PM  
JollyMagistrate: "If Global Warming/Climate Change is, in fact, human caused, then once there is enough data to prove it(beyond reasonable doubt) change will occur. "

I just don't understand the mindset of people who deny it outright. They always concede that we're in a natural warming trend, and they must agree that human pollution contributes to warming to some extent. Provided these two concessions, it's no longer an argument over whether or not humans contribute to global warming, it's just a question of how much they contribute.
 
2008-12-16 12:35:30 PM  
JollyMagistrate

It's been proven to over 95% assurance per the IPCC report. Even if you don't trust the data there, how about the simple fact that greenhouse gas concentrations (particularly methane and carbon dioxide) have increased beyond what can be found at any other time going back 800k years?

The greenhouse effect is what keeps the Earth warm enough for liquid water, and increasing the concentration causes the Earth to trap more energy. More energy means, simplistically, more warming.
 
2008-12-16 12:35:58 PM  
Guess I have to also stop accepting evolution is since there are bloggers who claim that fossils prove Noah's flood.
 
2008-12-16 12:43:36 PM  

Zamboro: Climate change isn't a term meant to obfuscate or misdirect. It's an attempt to clarify for idiots who think that record snowfall in their bumpkin town means that the entire theory is a crock. Irregular weather all over the globe is part and parcel of what the theory predicts.


No. Irregular climate all over the globe is what it predicts. Weather is by its nature irregular. Anyone who points to record snowfall as evidence for or against climate change is an idiot.
 
2008-12-16 12:44:52 PM  
LouDobbs: "No. Irregular climate all over the globe is what it predicts. Weather is by its nature irregular. Anyone who points to record snowfall as evidence for or against climate change is an idiot."

That's what I meant to convey although you're totally correct that I could've done a better job. Thanks.
 
2008-12-16 12:57:22 PM  
I keep thinking about the hereafter. I walk into a room and ask, "What did I come in here after?"

Seriously, though, I was rather disappointed by Zamboro's attempt at responding to cirby's points. It seemed to me that cirby wasn't here to do a Rush Limbaugh blovation spiel, but just to raise some few points, which are opposite to conventional AGW, and which seem worth asking. But rather than address them, the best Zamboro can do is speak dismissively of cirby as layman. Not exactly the best way to represent yourself to people who are trying to learn about these issues.

The article really needed tightening and focus. But the author's main point (that there is a non-zero component of fear-mongering in much of the expositions about global warming being presented to laymen) has some merit, I think. It is possible to accept a worldview which sees global warming as a reality AND also sees a small number of insecure scientists enjoying the thrill of demagoguery.

Although it's only an anecdotal data point, I have flown with research flights over Greenland and have personally seen the dramatic retreat of many glaciers -- I need no convincing. But I have little patience for ideologues on either side of this inquiry.
 
2008-12-16 1:05:14 PM  
KerwoodDerby: "Seriously, though, I was rather disappointed by Zamboro's attempt at responding to cirby's points. It seemed to me that cirby wasn't here to do a Rush Limbaugh blovation spiel, but just to raise some few points, which are opposite to conventional AGW, and which seem worth asking."

You're free to be as disappointed in me as you like, but realize that his "points" are raised in every AGW thread.

KerwoodDerby: "But rather than address them, the best Zamboro can do is speak dismissively of cirby as layman. Not exactly the best way to represent yourself to people who are trying to learn about these issues."

There's not much else I can do. What he's telling me flatly contradicts what I've heard from legitimate climate scientists. I'd do up a nice six page wall of text megapost but it'd just be copy and paste from climate science sites, besides which Jon Snow is the resident AGW expert so we generally leave that to him.
 
2008-12-16 1:06:06 PM  
KerwoodDerby

Dude, cirby could have posted that shpeel over in freeperville and not had much objection. It's complete garbage.
 
2008-12-16 1:14:20 PM  

cirby: On the other hand, some of the folks who question Anthropogenic Global Warming (no, it's not "Climate Change," it's global warming, since that's what it actually predicts) have some good, provable alternate theories. Like "the Sun got hotter, now it's getting cooler, we predicted it, now it's actually happening." The CO2-based global warming predictions tanked (we're about a half degree cooler right now than the predictions claimed we would be - no, you don't get to use the current post-dictions, look up the unedited ones from the 1990s, and don't forget the Hockey Stick), but the guys who pointed out that the Sun is a variable star and made actual testable predictions were, well, right.


Or, you could look at actual data. Lockwood and Frohlich's 2006 paper in Proceedings of the Royal Society A (PDF) is a good start that is freely available.

From the abstract: "Here we show that over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth's climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.

Figure 1 shows you, quantitatively, how the recent irradiance trend is overwhelmed by the steady increase in greenhouse forcing.
 
2008-12-16 1:18:26 PM  

KerwoodDerby: It seemed to me that cirby wasn't here to do a Rush Limbaugh blovation spiel, but just to raise some few points, which are opposite to conventional AGW, and which seem worth asking.


I recognize your concern, but when you start with the whole, tired "Climate Change is a religion because, uh, scientists believe the evidence, and ... uh..." crap, you're an idiot and deserve to be treated like one. The language is lifted directly from Limbaugh.
 
2008-12-16 1:22:13 PM  
cirby

The CO2-based global warming predictions tanked (we're about a half degree cooler right now than the predictions claimed we would be - no, you don't get to use the current post-dictions, look up the unedited ones from the 1990s, and don't forget the Hockey Stick

Son of a... I missed this bit of stupid in his speel. The 1988 prediction from Hansen et al:

realclimate.orgView Full Size
 
2008-12-16 2:45:05 PM  

Zamboro: random guy on the internet who thinks AGW is a communist plot


I never said any such thing!
 
2008-12-16 3:01:14 PM  
chimp_ninja:
From the paper you cite:
"We have no direct measure of TSI variations on century time scales"

This sentence alone pretty much blows the whole "insolation has nothing to do with it" argument out of the water. All of their assumptions of insolation changes are based on oversimplified formulas of actual sunspot and other cycles, not the ones the astronomers have been telling everyone about for about thirty years. We DO have direct insolation observations for a few decades - and they match global temperature measurements pretty well.

They also use a broken assumption in one stat - delta T, or the amount of temperature change. The graph they use shows a strong increase from 2000 to 2005 (about a quarter of a degree C - see the bottom chart in their Figure 1). This is wrong in a spectacular fashion.

The only thing this paper accomplishes is to show that the minor theory of "cosmic rays influence global temperatures to a large degree" isn't that strong.

Zafler:
Son of a... I missed this bit of stupid in his speel. The 1988 prediction from Hansen et al

Notice that from 2000 to 2005, the graph insists that there's been a quarter of a degree of observed warming (right now, the mainstream warmers are claiming that the temps are flat at best, or that the observed cooling over the last decade is a temporary effect). Using the actual observed global temps (by everyone except the Hansen-run NASA), they're off by a LOT. It's a lot easier to make predictions fit results when you can change the results after the predictions are shown to be wrong.

Meanwhile, over 30,000 actual scientists (not sociologists, not UN administrators) have signed a petition saying that they think AGW has NOT been proven, and a large percentage of the authors of the IPCC report have come forward and said that their reservations and counter-arguments were edited out or ignored in the actual IPCC reports. So much for "consensus."
 
2008-12-16 3:11:26 PM  
cirby

Damn, do you go out of your way to fail that hard? The Oregon Petition? Seriously? (new window)

The 1/4 degree you're griping about is only in comparison to the Land-Sea averag, and not the land numbers which are the red data points. The blue scenario (B) was the projected stay the course outcome. So stuff it, you're wrong, and your declarations of such fly in the face of actual scientific data.

cirby: Using the actual observed global temps (by everyone except the Hansen-run NASA), they're off by a LOT.


Oh, and do you have a cite for this false as hell statement? Because the numbers from NASA match up damn well with both HADCRUT and NOAA numbers.
 
2008-12-16 3:19:27 PM  
Oh, and since you're using the "it's the sun" argument:

[image from upload.wikimedia.org too old to be available]

Wikia, but data source links here:
Link (new window)

So, no, Sun activity not to blame for increase in temperature.
 
2008-12-16 3:49:23 PM  

cirby: We DO have direct insolation observations for a few decades - and they match global temperature measurements pretty well.


No, they don't. You're just making things up.

ngdc.noaa.govView Full Size


Source: NOAA Direct satellite measurements of solar output. Very slight decline superimposed on 11-year oscillation.

nasa.govView Full Size


Source: NASA. Over the same interval, steady temperature increase.
 
2008-12-16 3:53:02 PM  
cirby: Keep in mind that only about 1/6 of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere is actually absorbed, either in the atmosphere or at the surface. A 3 W m-2 change in irradiance is only about a 0.5 W m-2 direct (minus feedbacks) forcing. A doubling of CO2 is a direct forcing of about 4 W m-2[1][2].

I know folks like to get fussy about correlation vs. causation when it comes to the paleoclimate record and the correlation between CO2 and temperature, and they should be fussy about it because the correlation doesn't explain the physical mechanism. But if you're going to get fussy about that, you better get fussy over simple sun and temperature correlations, too, unless again the physical mechanisms are thoroughly explained... like how do you get the warming we've seen from a 0.5 W m-2 increase over the last 400 years, but not warming from increasing CO2, which roughly is at a direct forcing of 1.5 W m-2 at the moment (40% of the way to doubling).
 
2008-12-16 3:58:48 PM  
Also a good article on this subject:

The Origins of Peak Oil Doomerism
 
2008-12-16 3:59:57 PM  

cirby: They also use a broken assumption in one stat - delta T, or the amount of temperature change. The graph they use shows a strong increase from 2000 to 2005 (about a quarter of a degree C - see the bottom chart in their Figure 1). This is wrong in a spectacular fashion.


This isn't hard. I've already cited the NOAA and NASA temperature records above, showing agreement with the Lockwood/Frohlich data. Don't trust American sources and want CRU as a third source? Sure.

cru.uea.ac.ukView Full Size


Hrm. Strong upwards trend over the same interval the satellites show no increase in irradiance. Hey, maybe all three of them are wrong. Let's see what RSS has recorded since 1978.

farm4.static.flickr.comView Full Size


Why do you insist on lying to a group of people who can just look up the truth? Temperature measurements aren't exactly obscure data.
 
2008-12-16 4:00:07 PM  

BatardAmericain: I'm not a doom-sayer, but when it's over 50, this close to Christmas, in CONNECTICUT, I tend to worry a little bit. In New England (the accent is not from 'round heah, fuhthah nohth)our seasons have been "summah", "fall", "wintah" and "mud".

Now we're skipping "wintah" and going straight to "mud" what's up with that?



It's funny that you say that...

Also, I live much farther south than you on the East coast and I think you must have the memory span of a goldfish. With the exception of this week it's been cold as hell so far since about October - and a hell of a lot colder than it's been the past few winters. And have you not heard about all the ice storms up in New England this last week?
 
2008-12-16 4:03:19 PM  

cirby: Using the actual observed global temps (by everyone except the Hansen-run NASA), they're off by a LOT.


So, since all the data above is from about four or five sources, could you point out where the sharp deviations in temperature trends are over the last few decades? Or is it an international temperature conspiracy?
 
2008-12-16 4:12:04 PM  
chimp_ninja

I need to get better at navigating the NOAA website.
 
2008-12-16 5:52:05 PM  
To jump back in here:

We have data, and it seems to reflect that Global Climate Change is occurring. I can understand that. I'm not all that well read on the subject, but I've seen enough to entertain the possibility (or probability) that we are causing a minute amount of change to the environment each year that will steadily build upon itself.

What I was mentioning in my previous post, Zamboro and Ziffler, is that you won't see any driving change until you cannot, beyond any doubt, prove it and make it profitable.

I'm not going to stop driving my car to work, but if I am given an alternative that is equivalent in price and functionality, I will switch. The same is true of almost everyone. When my current lease is up, I'm going to invest in a hybrid car, not because of the environment, but because it will be more profitable in the long run.

You can post graphs and argue all you want, you won't convert folks that way. Throw them ways to make their lives easier and more profitable, and you'll get the change you want.

That's the only way you'll see change.
 
2008-12-16 7:28:54 PM  
JollyMagistrate

I refuse to believe that people won't attempt to mitigate things themselves once they understand what is going on. I know of several people that have taken up recycling and switching to more efficient meants of heating and cooling even though it requires a larget up front cost. Once people have the broad knowledge of the subject, the impetus for becoming more green as a species will increase.

Of course, I could be wrong.
 
2008-12-16 7:43:31 PM  

JollyMagistrate: To jump back in here:

We have data, and it seems to reflect that Global Climate Change is occurring. I can understand that. I'm not all that well read on the subject, but I've seen enough to entertain the possibility (or probability) that we are causing a minute amount of change to the environment each year that will steadily build upon itself.

What I was mentioning in my previous post, Zamboro and Ziffler, is that you won't see any driving change until you cannot, beyond any doubt, prove it and make it profitable.

I'm not going to stop driving my car to work, but if I am given an alternative that is equivalent in price and functionality, I will switch. The same is true of almost everyone. When my current lease is up, I'm going to invest in a hybrid car, not because of the environment, but because it will be more profitable in the long run.

You can post graphs and argue all you want, you won't convert folks that way. Throw them ways to make their lives easier and more profitable, and you'll get the change you want.

That's the only way you'll see change.



I think much of the problem stems from differing definitions of the above. Is proof "beyond any doubt" even possible? Is that a reasonable standard before action is mandated? Does "profitable" mean immediately, 5 years from now, 20, 100? Is regulation or taxation a part of that, etc.

I would argue that much of what you're talking about has already taken place. It's just that it is somewhat difficult to perceive. We already have enough proof to mandate immediate action. It already is profitable if we take a long view. The real difficulty is in getting people to realize it and do something about it.
 
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