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(Huffington Post)   And now for one of America's most hallowed political traditions: Time to dust off the fear-mongering "some unlikely aberration in the Electoral College could make your favorite candidate lose" story   (huffingtonpost.com) divider line
    More: Stupid  
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1435 clicks; posted to Politics » on 29 Oct 2008 at 6:11 PM (14 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



132 Comments     (+0 »)


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2008-10-29 2:53:27 PM  
The only electoral college "horror story" in recent memory was in 2000. If for whatever reason the will of the people wasn't served in this election, I'd be pissed about it then too, even if it did serve the person I happened to vote for.
 
2008-10-29 3:31:39 PM  
That 22% scenario is pretty obviously a pure hypothetical. You're not going to have a scenario with DC, Alabama, Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming on one side and California, Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, South Carolina and Utah on the other.

Although the no-votes-in-every-state-you-lost thing is actually not unprecedented. That's how Lincoln got in. Southern states didn't even put him on the ballot.
 
2008-10-29 3:46:22 PM  
Eliminate the electoral college. There are no good arguments for it.
 
2008-10-29 3:48:13 PM  
I get his point, but its just a silly math experiment.

Realistically, looking at the polls, I think McCain has to turn 10/10 specific states now leaning Obama. 10/10. Not 9/10, 8/10. All of them.

Politics, policy, history aside... the pure probability of this happening is crazy. Even if there were a huge October surprise, you have to believe Obama wouldn't instantly lose 10/10 states. Even if Obama *quit* the race, I bet the Dems would still take 1 or 2 out of 10.
 
2008-10-29 3:50:38 PM  

DamnYankees: Eliminate the electoral college. There are no good arguments for it.


Recounts. What if the vote is a handful of thousand apart. Do you recount the whole nation?
 
2008-10-29 3:51:18 PM  

downstairs: I get his point, but its just a silly math experiment.

Realistically, looking at the polls, I think McCain has to turn 10/10 specific states now leaning Obama. 10/10. Not 9/10, 8/10. All of them.

Politics, policy, history aside... the pure probability of this happening is crazy. Even if there were a huge October surprise, you have to believe Obama wouldn't instantly lose 10/10 states. Even if Obama *quit* the race, I bet the Dems would still take 1 or 2 out of 10.


Also, the imbalance in the electoral college helps Obama this year. 538 does a great job on this. Basically, Obama is outperforming the national polls in enough states to get him 270 EV. That means if all the polls came down evenly to a dead tie in the national numbers, Obama would still have a lead in enough states to win 270.
 
2008-10-29 3:51:57 PM  

Atillathepun: DamnYankees: Eliminate the electoral college. There are no good arguments for it.

Recounts. What if the vote is a handful of thousand apart. Do you recount the whole nation?


Not sure - how do other countries do it? Interesting point, though.
 
2008-10-29 3:53:06 PM  

Atillathepun: DamnYankees: Eliminate the electoral college. There are no good arguments for it.

Recounts. What if the vote is a handful of thousand apart. Do you recount the whole nation?


Although, now that I think about it...we manage to count the initial ballots in just a few hours, basically. Why would it be so hard to recount them all?
 
2008-10-29 3:53:17 PM  

DamnYankees: There are no good arguments for it.


First of all, its tracked the popular vote, what 90% or more of the time? And when it doesn't, the popular vote is so close that a coin-flip really would be just as "fair".

But most importantly it allows for a more diverse representation of the people. People in highly populated areas tend to think the same (and vice versa). It keeps that in check.

If you think of it as defined cultural blocks each getting a more equal voice, it makes sense. It helps to remove mob rules, which is what a lot of the purpose for the Constitution.
 
2008-10-29 3:56:23 PM  

downstairs: First of all, its tracked the popular vote, what 90% or more of the time? And when it doesn't, the popular vote is so close that a coin-flip really would be just as "fair".


Ok. That's not really an argument for it, but ok.

downstairs: But most importantly it allows for a more diverse representation of the people. People in highly populated areas tend to think the same (and vice versa). It keeps that in check.


There's no evidence of this. And, this is an argument? People in big cities think alike, so their votes should count less? Really?
 
2008-10-29 3:56:50 PM  

DamnYankees: Although, now that I think about it...we manage to count the initial ballots in just a few hours, basically. Why would it be so hard to recount them all?


I believe the first, quick count is highly inaccurate. If a Reagan blows out a Mondale by millions, it doesn't matter. But if it comes down to 1,000 votes.... chances are its *actually* wildly up or down from that.

Then you'd be talking a massive, audited, perfect counting of the votes.

Can you believe the shenanigans in the backwoods counties? Every precient in the country would need a GOP and dem representitive, lawyers, cops. Every one.

Because if just 2-3 of them are not under perfect security... there goes the election again.
 
2008-10-29 3:59:15 PM  

downstairs: I believe the first, quick count is highly inaccurate. If a Reagan blows out a Mondale by millions, it doesn't matter. But if it comes down to 1,000 votes.... chances are its *actually* wildly up or down from that.

Then you'd be talking a massive, audited, perfect counting of the votes.


Ok. So lets take a few days or a week and recount them if necessary. I don't like the idea of being fat and happy with a currently lazy counting system.

downstairs: Can you believe the shenanigans in the backwoods counties? Every precient in the country would need a GOP and dem representitive, lawyers, cops. Every one.

Because if just 2-3 of them are not under perfect security... there goes the election again.


Yeah, ok - so we'll have a rep from each party. Lets scrounge em up.

If this is really that important, as I think it is, we should do it right.
 
2008-10-29 3:59:36 PM  

DamnYankees: There's no evidence of this. And, this is an argument? People in big cities think alike, so their votes should count less? Really?


Essentially, yes.
 
2008-10-29 4:02:49 PM  

downstairs: DamnYankees: There's no evidence of this. And, this is an argument? People in big cities think alike, so their votes should count less? Really?

Essentially, yes.


Show evidence.
 
2008-10-29 4:08:26 PM  

DamnYankees: downstairs: DamnYankees: There's no evidence of this. And, this is an argument? People in big cities think alike, so their votes should count less? Really?

Essentially, yes.

Show evidence.


Its an opinion. My evidence is the lengthier version of the opion a couple of posts up.

I don't see anything wrong with a two-tiered system. You have an equal vote in your state. You're not voting for the president. You're voting for who your state votes for, for president.

We're the United States.

The powers of the states have eroded in recent years, hence people are looking at the electorial college as silly. But many years ago, people had an understanding that they were essentially citizens of their state first, and their state was part of the union.

It provides a bunch of checks-and-balances.
 
2008-10-29 4:13:10 PM  
Felleman has used current polling numbers with three plausible variables:

1) 30% of undecided voters vote McCain.
2) 3% of voters stating allegiance to Obama actually choose McCain in the voting booth.
3) McCain manages to outperform polls by 1% to 5% in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Nevada.


Yeah, good luck with that.

1) Ain't gonna happen. Most undecideds/independents are turned off by Palin*
2) Somehow I don't think there's gonna be a Bradley Effect this election. Maybe a Reverse Bradley Effect in parts of the Bible Belt, but not a regular Bradley Effect.
3) McCain would need to win ALL of those states, and he STILL might lose. If Montana, North Dakota and Indiana go to Obama under this scenario, Obama wins 273-265. If, in addition to that, New Hampshire goes to McCain, It'd be a 269-269 tie
 
2008-10-29 4:21:01 PM  

downstairs: Its an opinion. My evidence is the lengthier version of the opion a couple of posts up.

(Snip)


So you don't care about fairness in voting or the "one man one vote" idea.

Your call.
 
2008-10-29 4:24:41 PM  

DamnYankees: So you don't care about fairness in voting or the "one man one vote" idea.

Your call.


Its more complicated than that. Why don't we just vote in all laws by national referendum? Same idea.

You have a simplistic definition of "fair", and thus your reasoning that your version of "fair" is something individuals have a right to.

What is your rationale for one-person, one-vote? And its gotta be better than "just because."
 
2008-10-29 4:28:25 PM  

downstairs: Its more complicated than that. Why don't we just vote in all laws by national referendum? Same idea.


Because its really impracticle and we delegate to representatives who can learn more and make informed decisions.

There's no comparison to the electoral college.

downstairs: What is your rationale for one-person, one-vote? And its gotta be better than "just because."


Every person is fundamentally equal in their democratic voice, and no one deserves any stronger than another. To do otherwise is a caste system.
 
2008-10-29 4:29:21 PM  
The electoral college would be better if the size of congress were not limited to 435 members. Ultimately, the larger states will end up will all congressmen and the rest of the states will end up with one representative each. At that moment in time, the earth will collapse on itself and life will cease to exist.
 
2008-10-29 4:37:30 PM  
I used to despise the idea of the electoral college. Then I thought: "Do I really want the typical American to actually have a say in choosing the President? The same people who watch American Idol every week, eat garbage like McDonalds on a regular basis, and have made professional Wrestling and Nascar multi-million dollar industries?"

My answer was no. So I am ok with it now.
 
2008-10-29 5:07:44 PM  

DamnYankees: Every person is fundamentally equal in their democratic voice, and no one deserves any stronger than another. To do otherwise is a caste system.


What democratic voice? The one that comes from being in a democracy? We're not.

The whole point of the electoral college was for the presidency to be decided by a mixture of state-based and popular-based systems. A compromise- like many others- between the heavy "states power" guys and the heavy "federal power" guys.
 
2008-10-29 5:13:20 PM  

downstairs: The one that comes from being in a democracy? We're not.


Oy, you're one of those. Nevermind.

downstairs: The whole point of the electoral college was for the presidency to be decided by a mixture of state-based and popular-based systems


Yeah, that's why its retarded. We stopped giving rights to "land" a long time ago in most other areas of life.
 
2008-10-29 5:29:18 PM  
DamnYankees

Oy, you're one of those.

What, people who are correct? Because he is.

The United States is a Federal Constitutional Republic. Commonly called a Democratic REPUBLIC. We have representatives who vote for us. We vote for them. That is a republic, not a democracy.
 
2008-10-29 5:30:52 PM  

FarkinHostile: DamnYankees

Oy, you're one of those.

What, people who are correct? Because he is.

The United States is a Federal Constitutional Republic. Commonly called a Democratic REPUBLIC. We have representatives who vote for us. We vote for them. That is a republic, not a democracy.


Democracy
Republic
Constitution

None of them are mutually exclusive, and we are all three.
 
2008-10-29 5:42:19 PM  
DamnYankees

Democracy
Republic
Constitution

None of them are mutually exclusive, and we are all three.



I'm sorry, but we are classified as a Republic. Hence, Congressmen, Senators and the electoral college. We elect representatives who vote on issues for us. We are not a democracy, or Al Gore would have won the 2000 election.
 
2008-10-29 5:43:54 PM  

FarkinHostile: I'm sorry, but we are classified as a Republic. Hence, Congressmen, Senators and the electoral college. We elect representatives who vote on issues for us. We are not a democracy, or Al Gore would have won the 2000 election.


We are a Republic. We're also a democracy. We are also constitutionally bound.

Again, not mutually exclusive, and you've said nothing to prove otherwise.
 
2008-10-29 5:48:50 PM  
DamnYankees

Again, not mutually exclusive, and you've said nothing to prove otherwise.

Actually, I did. As I pointed out, we are classified as a Federal Constitutional Republic, Not a Federal Constitutional Democracy. The last word being the important one, the rest are pretty much adjectives describing the kind of REPUBLIC we are.

So refute me. You were the one saying we are a democracy. Prove it. It will take you about 5 seconds to find what our classification is.
 
2008-10-29 5:57:44 PM  

FarkinHostile: So refute me. You were the one saying we are a democracy. Prove it. It will take you about 5 seconds to find what our classification is.


First of all, is there an official classification book I'm not aware of? You are using the words from Wikipedia - if there is some UN or CIA classification system, point me to it.

Secondly, the form of our government is republican. IOW, we are a Republic. I never said we weren't. We have to draw a distinction between the structure of government, the method of populating government, and the channels to exercise government power.

The structure of our government is republican. People populate government who make decisions on behalf of the rest of us and do so in a collective manner. There is monarch.

The method of populating government is a democracy. We choose our leaders. There are other ways of doing this in a republic (think of Ancient Rome), and there are also democracies which aren't structured like a Republic (Athens or the UK).

The foundation of our legal system and the boundaries of government power emanates from Constitution. Other countries do it differently.

I think these are the ways to think of these instutitions, and I see them in no ways as mutually exclusive. Now tell me where I'm wrong.
 
2008-10-29 6:07:01 PM  
DamnYankees

Secondly, the form of our government is republican. IOW, we are a Republic.


This is where I stopped reading.

So you agree with me. Good. Our classification as a republic, not a democracy is the only thing I commented on.

Therefore, downstairs is correct.

"One of those", like he was some kind of an idiot, rubbed me wrong, especially since his point was right.
 
2008-10-29 6:07:14 PM  
Merriam-Webster has this to say:

Democracy: a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections

Republic: a government in which supreme power resides in a body of citizens entitled to vote and is exercised by elected officers and representatives responsible to them and governing according to law

Continue discussion.
 
2008-10-29 6:08:57 PM  

FarkinHostile: So you agree with me. Good. Our classification as a republic, not a democracy is the only thing I commented on.


What is this "classification" you are talking about? You speak as though this is a Platonic form or something.
 
2008-10-29 6:11:33 PM  
downstairs: But most importantly it allows for a more diverse representation of the people. People in highly populated areas tend to think the same (and vice versa). It keeps that in check.

So you want all those "real Americans" to control who gets elected and the hell with the majority. Gotcha
 
2008-10-29 6:14:16 PM  
DamnYankees

What is this "classification" you are talking about? You speak as though this is a Platonic form or something.

What would you call it? Our system nominclature? A rose by any other name....


Now, repeat after me:

"I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands: one Nation under God, indivisible, With Liberty and Justice for all."
 
2008-10-29 6:16:30 PM  

FarkinHostile: What would you call it? Our system nominclature? A rose by any other name....


I call it a description. We are a republic. We are a democracy. Just like I'm both a male and an American. You can be classified in different ways.

FarkinHostile: "I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands: one Nation under God, indivisible, With Liberty and Justice for all."


Yes. So? I already agreed we're a republic.
 
2008-10-29 6:16:41 PM  

DamnYankees: Eliminate the electoral college. There are no good arguments for it.


Good luck getting two thirds of the states to ratify that one.
 
2008-10-29 6:17:13 PM  
In all fairness, All Hallow's Eve is Friday...
 
2008-10-29 6:17:48 PM  

DamnYankees: FarkinHostile: What would you call it? Our system nominclature? A rose by any other name....

I call it a description. We are a republic. We are a democracy. Just like I'm both a male and an American. You can be classified in different ways.

FarkinHostile: "I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands: one Nation under God, indivisible, With Liberty and Justice for all."

Yes. So? I already agreed we're a republic.


Since you obviously missed it.


Democracy: a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections
 
2008-10-29 6:18:05 PM  
I was told there would be no charts
 
2008-10-29 6:18:16 PM  

I_Approve_Of_This_Message: DamnYankees: Eliminate the electoral college. There are no good arguments for it.

Good luck getting two thirds of the states to ratify that one.


Don't need it. Just need enough states to pass a National Popular Vote Act.
 
2008-10-29 6:18:29 PM  

FarkinHostile: DamnYankees

What is this "classification" you are talking about? You speak as though this is a Platonic form or something.

What would you call it? Our system nominclature? A rose by any other name....


Now, repeat after me:

"I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands: one Nation under God, indivisible, With Liberty and Justice for all."


...better

Also, "democracy" and "republic" are not mutually exclusive.
 
2008-10-29 6:18:44 PM  
How about a constitutional amendment that makes all votes have equal value. Redraw the lines. Get rid of this 'win the state, win all the electoral votes' and have each county or electoral district award their electoral college vote independent of the majority of the state.

Or, presidential candidates have to wrestle a bear. Either works.
 
2008-10-29 6:19:04 PM  

adamgreeney: Democracy: a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections


Yeah. That describes America.
 
2008-10-29 6:19:21 PM  

DamnYankees: Eliminate the electoral college. There are no good arguments for it.


Well, there is that darn Constitution paperwork to deal with...
 
2008-10-29 6:20:25 PM  
Look, just because some moistened bint lobs a scimitar at you...
 
2008-10-29 6:20:33 PM  

DamnYankees: Atillathepun: DamnYankees: Eliminate the electoral college. There are no good arguments for it.

Recounts. What if the vote is a handful of thousand apart. Do you recount the whole nation?

Although, now that I think about it...we manage to count the initial ballots in just a few hours, basically. Why would it be so hard to recount them all?


If they're all voting electronically... you would probably get a different count each time... Diebold programmed them to flip the votes, they probably didn't build the programming in to handle the recounts.

//No I am not serious...besides my black helicopter is about to take off.
 
2008-10-29 6:20:39 PM  

DamnYankees: Not sure - how do other countries do it?


They wait a week. Whichever candidate has fewer supporters killed in the ensuing chaos wins.
 
2008-10-29 6:21:09 PM  
It's October 29th. The surprise must be in November.

Aha!
 
2008-10-29 6:21:23 PM  

oregoncat: DamnYankees: Eliminate the electoral college. There are no good arguments for it.

Well, there is that darn Constitution paperwork to deal with...


That's not an argument.
 
2008-10-29 6:21:34 PM  

whereisian: Or, presidential candidates have to wrestle a bear. Either works.


I personally like Lewis Black's idea about the monkey
 
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