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(Chicago Sun-Times)   Hey Football Fanatics. Here is the preview for the upcoming N.F.L. season   ( divider line
    More: Spiffy  
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4094 clicks; posted to Main » on 07 Sep 2002 at 11:18 AM (15 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»

114 Comments     (+0 »)

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2002-09-07 09:39:39 AM  
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2002-09-07 10:23:26 AM  
Hee hee....

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2002-09-07 11:02:19 AM  
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nuff said
2002-09-07 11:12:54 AM  
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2002-09-07 11:24:50 AM  
Do you think the Chi SunTimes could be more aggressive with their pop-ups for a subscription?

Besides, the Vikings are going to dominate the North Central this year!!!
2002-09-07 11:29:02 AM  
My gut tells me the Rams, picked to win the Super Bowl, will lose nastily to Denver. You can throw a few critical injuries in there as well
2002-09-07 11:33:29 AM  
SkidNuts: I'm with you. I'm from St.Louis (Rams!!) and my wife is from Denver. We both want a Rams/Bronco SuperBowl amd this year, it just might happen.
2002-09-07 11:34:26 AM  
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2002-09-07 11:34:45 AM  
Steelers play the Patriots on Monday...GO STEELERS!
2002-09-07 11:35:15 AM  
I Think "THINK" kurt warner may get injured this year (i hope not)

remember this post
2002-09-07 11:40:32 AM  
Vikings! Vikings! Vikings are coming there is nowhere you can hide!
2002-09-07 11:40:33 AM  

"Fourth-and-4 at his own 40 with a 10-7 lead in the second quarter, and what's a coach to do? Again, a no-brainer-- punt, pin the other team back and let the defense go to work.

Listening to an Oakland Raiders' game, University of California economics professor David Romer began wondering if there was a statistical basis for all of these supposedly easy-to-make coaching decisions.

Why, he asked, don't more coaches go for a potentially game-altering touchdown on fourth-and-short, rather than playing it safe with the field goal? And why don't they gamble on fourth down by trying to make a play, thus retaining possession of the ball and keeping the defense on the field, rather than always punting?

So, putting his mind to debunking the NFL's traditional no-brainer thinking, Romer and five research assistants examined 20,000 first-quarter plays in 732 regular season games from 1998, 1999 and 2000, then analyzed them with proven methods-- as an economist would, rather than a football coach.

The result was a studious, highly detailed 33-page working paper titled "It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say? A Dynamic Programming Analysis of Football Strategy." It was submitted this summer to the National Bureau of Economic Strategy.

"My fellow economists are thrilled with this," the 44-year-old Romer said. "I've been getting e-mails from people who said that paper was great and they're completely convinced."

Despite its weighty title and intimidating volume of data, Romer's conclusions are fairly simple: Coaches should gamble more on fourth down, not just in scoring territory but from nearly every spot on the field, even in situations such as fourth-and-3 from their own 10.

Of the 1,100 fourth downs where Romer thought it was best to go for it, though, teams kicked 992 times.

"In life, you face a lot of situations where, if you make the wrong decision, the consequences are terrible. But in football, what you often see the offense do is exactly what the defense wants it to do: kick the field goal or punt the ball," Romer said. "Yet there's a high payoff (for going for it on fourth down) ... it's an attractive gamble."

Me again: Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher sent a stafer to get the paper, and read it, then said he wouldn't change anything. The Redskins coach, however, is on the record as liking the idea, and went for 7 points on 4th down & short (from the 31 yard line, where a field goal seemed a sure thing) in a preseason game already this season.

Just a post on an interesting science-change going on behind the scenes this season, for the armchair-coaches out there. Personally, I think such a gamble may be statistically worth it, but I'd have to be past the 50 yard line to try it out. And past the 30 yard line, I'll take the field goal. Maybe that's why I still can't beat the damn game. Dennis Green once said that football is just a math game. I thought he was nuts. Then he took the Vikings to a 15-1 season, and I gotta admit that he might have been on to something.
2002-09-07 11:41:20 AM  
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Even Chicago admits that the Pack will win the NFC North.

2002-09-07 11:43:33 AM  
why do i have a feeling this thread may get ugly soon

2002-09-07 11:44:01 AM  
Whoever wrote this can't find his ass with both hands.
2002-09-07 11:46:07 AM  
Da Vikes!
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2002-09-07 11:47:01 AM  
Upcoming?I thought the 2002 season started last Thurs. night.
2002-09-07 11:47:56 AM  
It'll be a fight between the Packers and the Vikes for the top. At least they got Tampa Bay out of the division.
2002-09-07 11:48:01 AM  
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Steelers > you
2002-09-07 11:48:50 AM  
....for me to poop on!
2002-09-07 11:52:14 AM  
Ayn Rand:

This reminds me of that one article here on Fark where that scientist guy thought it would be better to change the pitcher spot in the batting order to 7th instead of 9th. Did anything ever come of that idea?
2002-09-07 11:53:00 AM  
....for me to poop on!

Steelers > you and your poop
2002-09-07 11:57:32 AM  
Raiders will be #1..assuming there isn't another terrorist attack - in which case, defying all odds, it will be the Patriots
2002-09-07 11:58:21 AM  
If there was a team called "Terrorist Ass-kickers" they would have won last year.
2002-09-07 11:59:51 AM  


Seriously, folks, is your life so pathetic that the only thing that entertains you is other guys doing what you wish you could? Hey, here's a wacky thought: maybe if you got off your fat, drunken asses, you could actually do what they are doing? I could sit on my ass all day, eating corndogs and drinking beer, watching a bunch of dudes working out, I suppose, but I get so much more out of actually going to the gym and lifting weights myself.

How sad your lives consist of nothing more than than "Yeah, well, the Chiefs are gunna kick the Steelers asses, man!!!"

Go kill yourselves.
2002-09-07 12:02:13 PM  
troutstomper something does smell fishy. also, we better watch out for those black helicopters.

2002-09-07 12:04:09 PM  
Hahahaha, that's funny...
2002-09-07 12:05:38 PM  
09-07-02 11:59:51 AM BoCoMoFo
...but I get so much more out of actually going to the gym and lifting weights myself.

We know you do it for the hot sweaty men in muscle shirts. It's ok.
2002-09-07 12:10:37 PM  

Uh... you're a geek?
2002-09-07 12:11:46 PM  

Who shiat in your cereal?

Lay off the roids for a while.
2002-09-07 12:15:34 PM  
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2002-09-07 12:20:17 PM  
You forgot to don your flame-retardant suit. In short...wrong answer
2002-09-07 12:22:33 PM  
Silver and black fan here. To be realistic I think the Raiders will win 13 games this season. After that who knows.

The first game on Thursday was a winner. For the 49ers that is. Love those last minute wins.

All in all I am looking forward to a top notch year of NFL football. Who will go all the way? I don't have a clue. Will the Pats repeat, I doubt it. It's just too tough.

Will fark have the best NFL board, yes.

MNF Chat at
2002-09-07 12:22:34 PM  
I was at the Pirates game last night (where we won 11-0 against the Marlins, in a game that even our Triple AAA call-ups got hits and scored in) and saw this guy outside peddling Steeler's T-Shirts. The best seller was "One Bad Ma'afala"

Hee hee!
2002-09-07 12:26:42 PM  
Randy Moss gets his ring this year. Cris Carter doesn't.
2002-09-07 12:28:26 PM  
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2002-09-07 12:28:33 PM  
TroutStomper: Funniest reple I've read in months. Hilarious!
2002-09-07 12:30:29 PM  
I G G L E S, baby
2002-09-07 12:32:49 PM  
speaking of raiderettes, my roommates mom was a raiderette for a few seasons - got to school and I had a raiderettes calender and his mom was featured on one of the months, a little awkward. This is her....

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2002-09-07 12:33:43 PM  
More of the conspiracy from the infamous Raiders/Patriots game..

From the start, both teams acted as if every inch gained would be vital. The Raiders used up one of their instant-replay reviews less than 2 minutes into the game, hoping that a pass to Tim Brown would be deemed good for a few extra inches and a first down. The officials ruled against the Raiders and, following replay regulations, took away one of their timeouts.

The officials did decide, though, that they had spotted the ball improperly the first time and moved it a hair. The maneuver only highlighted the weirdness of playing a game of inches on a monochromatic surface.
2002-09-07 12:34:37 PM  
preach brother troutstomper
2002-09-07 12:35:19 PM  
Lions Win The Superbowl!!!

Oh well, at least we have the Wings.
2002-09-07 12:37:22 PM  
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I'm not a big fan but these guys are going to win the Superbowl.
2002-09-07 12:39:17 PM  
Wow! Look what I just got in the mail. Go figure.

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BeGoggle: They may not win the Super Bowl, but I think the Redskins are a team to watch this year. Young, strong and full of 'what-do-we-have-to-lose' attitude. Watch'em.
2002-09-07 12:41:52 PM  
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Now you did it. You pissed off Virginia McCaskey.

Actually The Chicago SunTimes lifted that story from AP I think.

Yeah, Moss will buy a few rings this year with $$$ from that big contract he signed. But he sure isn't going to get a Super Bowl ring from playing on the Vikes.

You must be a terrorist. That kind of talk is Un-American.
2002-09-07 12:44:57 PM  
Redskins are more likely to have the "what-do-we-do-now?" attitude
2002-09-07 12:46:32 PM  
BoFoMoCo If sports really suck so bad and are only for retards, what led you to read this article? Pinhead!

What a life you live, Seems your biggest thrills come from working out at the gym. No other life to mention? I would suggest you kill your self. But please do it in a natural way because wasting bullets, rope, or poison on your sorry ass would be a shame... Try leaping from a tall building or bridge.
2002-09-07 12:47:15 PM  
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2002-09-07 12:47:36 PM  
To all you NFL Football fanatics,
Next year you people have to come to Dr. Detroit's site and his football pool.

I got Bug and Bigpeeler to join. Too bad more FARK members didn't.
2002-09-07 12:48:47 PM  
This says it all--from Chick-aw-go, yet:

"WEST: The NFL's two best teams, in the same division."

GO Niners! (Sorry BP, this is the year).
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