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(Yahoo)   Polls: Trump is WAY ahead of his nearest rivals in 2024 presidential primary polls. Also Polls: Trump is WAY behind of his nearest rivals in 2024 presidential primary polls   (news.yahoo.com) divider line
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    More: Strange, Reason, New Hampshire, The New York Times, Gold standard, Statistics, Knowledge, Size, Emerson College poll  
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1381 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Feb 2023 at 6:35 PM (7 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



69 Comments     (+0 »)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


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Hubris Boy [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-02-03 2:24:52 PM  
People lie to pollsters. Apparently pollsters haven't figured this out yet.
 
Benevolent Misanthrope [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-02-03 2:32:25 PM  
Never underestimate that f*cker.  And never underestimate the hold he has over the GOP.  If he runs, they'll back him.  If they back him, he'll get the nomination.  If he gets the nomination, they've spent every minute since 2016 making sure the state houses, courts and electoral districts are prepped to make sure a Democrat can't win without a huge landslide.

FFS, why can't the Democrats play this damn game?
 
Benevolent Misanthrope [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-02-03 2:33:17 PM  
And yes, I know he's running.  I mean if he SERIOUSLY runs.  Like, makes an effort bigger than the half-assed stuff he's doing now.
 
Mangoose [TotalFark]
2023-02-03 2:34:29 PM  
Oooo boy. Here we go on this roller coaster again!!!!! Come take America's Wild Speculation Ride for the next bazillion election cycles.
 
MrBallou [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-02-03 3:02:25 PM  
We had a thread recently about how Trump's campaign was running through money at a ridiculous rate, including "nearly $2.5 million on texting, $1.7 million on online advertising and $950,000 on list rentals".

That $2.5M for texting made me suspicious at the time, but it makes sense if that's hiding money spent on manipulating (or buying) the polls. That would explain why some polls are wildly in his favor while others aren't.

It's not beneath Trump and sounds like the kind of little trick he could have learned from Vlad.
 
Kumana Wanalaia
2023-02-03 6:37:12 PM  

MrBallou: We had a thread recently about how Trump's campaign was running through money at a ridiculous rate, including "nearly $2.5 million on texting, $1.7 million on online advertising and $950,000 on list rentals".

That $2.5M for texting made me suspicious at the time, but it makes sense if that's hiding money spent on manipulating (or buying) the polls. That would explain why some polls are wildly in his favor while others aren't.

It's not beneath Trump and sounds like the kind of little trick he could have learned from Vlad.


1 Weird trick to put dictator back in power! Democracy doesn't want U to no!
 
MillionDollarMo
2023-02-03 6:38:47 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
foo monkey
2023-02-03 6:39:33 PM  

Hubris Boy: People lie to pollsters. Apparently pollsters haven't figured this out yet.


I wish they would.  I'd like to know early on if I have to vote or not.
 
Aussie_As
2023-02-03 6:41:22 PM  
MAGAts don't have consistent political views and jump on whichever bandwagon sucked up to them today. News at 11.
 
iheartscotch
2023-02-03 6:41:50 PM  
1. It's 2 years out

2. The last couple of polls closer to an election have been incredibly incorrect
 
C18H27NO3
2023-02-03 6:43:36 PM  
Trump** is done winning any presidency at this point so he can just waste his money for all I care.
 
MattytheMouse
2023-02-03 6:45:07 PM  
I'm polling way ahead of all these fools. Matty the Mouse 2024.
 
I hereby demand that I be given a Fark account [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-02-03 6:45:12 PM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: And never underestimate the hold he has over the GOP.  If he runs, they'll back him.


Someone will make a stand.

Trump will they get his followers to destroy them.

They'll come crawling back to him, begging for forgiveness.

The rest will then fall in line.

We've already seen this happen.
 
Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo
2023-02-03 6:47:10 PM  
The fact that this country is letting him run again after his supporters murdered US Capitol cops is absolutely disgusting.
 
LurkerSupreme [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-02-03 6:47:38 PM  

MattytheMouse: I'm polling way ahead of all these fools. Matty the Mouse 2024.


Well I imagine you're got the furry vote all locked up, and as everyone knows they're the true source of political power in this country.
 
Aussie_As
2023-02-03 6:50:32 PM  

MrBallou: That $2.5M for texting made me suspicious at the time, but it makes sense if that's hiding money spent on manipulating (or buying) the polls. That would explain why some polls are wildly in his favor while others aren't.


The millions spent texting was definitely suspicious but I'd be equally suspicious it was spent on manipulating polls. I would accept readily any explanation that meant the money found it's way into a Trump business or TFG's pockets, anything else I'd find suspicious. He's a one-trick pony and his one trick is stealing.
 
MattytheMouse
2023-02-03 6:50:48 PM  

LurkerSupreme: MattytheMouse: I'm polling way ahead of all these fools. Matty the Mouse 2024.

Well I imagine you're got the furry vote all locked up, and as everyone knows they're the true source of political power in this country.


I've got broad bi-partisan appeal! Democrats like me because I'm forward thinking, and republicans like me because I'm sworn enemies with Micky Mouse and will abuse the power of my office to take him on.
 
mistahtom
2023-02-03 6:51:53 PM  
Democratic Congressional control is way more important that focusing on who the GOP nominee is.
 
Karma Chameleon
2023-02-03 6:53:10 PM  
I'm not going to lie, part of me misses the adrenaline rush of seeing he's posted a new tweet and wondering if this is one that gets us all killed
 
Mugato [TotalFark]
2023-02-03 6:54:22 PM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: Never underestimate that f*cker.


That's not possible to underestimate him. He's never won the popular vote. He cocked up the mid-terms. What's improved with him since his last failure? He hasn't been prosecuted for anything, I'll give him that.
 
Geotpf
2023-02-03 6:54:28 PM  
I believe the general election polls more than these.  For one, they are more consistent.  They all show:

Biden > Trump
Biden < DeSantis

So, one of our goals, icky as it sounds, is to make sure Trump is the Republican nominee.

/yes, I know Hillary tried this as well but it backfired
 
LordOfThePings [OhFark]
2023-02-03 6:56:00 PM  
At the onset of the Republican campaign, the polls are exceptionally divided on Trump's support among Republican primary voters.

external-content.duckduckgo.comView Full Size
 
Bith Set Me Up
2023-02-03 6:57:11 PM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: Never underestimate that f*cker.  And never underestimate the hold he has over the GOP.  If he runs, they'll back him.  If they back him, he'll get the nomination.  If he gets the nomination, they've spent every minute since 2016 making sure the state houses, courts and electoral districts are prepped to make sure a Democrat can't win without a huge landslide.

FFS, why can't the Democrats play this damn game?


Republicans play to win, Democrats play to not-lose. Because the moderates think merely "getting along" matters more than anything else.

https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2013/01/04/intellectual-hipsters-centrists/
 
LurkerSupreme [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-02-03 6:59:55 PM  

MattytheMouse: LurkerSupreme: MattytheMouse: I'm polling way ahead of all these fools. Matty the Mouse 2024.

Well I imagine you're got the furry vote all locked up, and as everyone knows they're the true source of political power in this country.

I've got broad bi-partisan appeal! Democrats like me because I'm forward thinking, and republicans like me because I'm sworn enemies with Micky Mouse and will abuse the power of my office to take him on.


Well, you've got my vote. I may be a Democrat, but I've been meaning to stick it to that cocky, Disney-shilling bastard for many years now.
 
whidbey
2023-02-03 7:00:41 PM  
No1curr
 
fruit flies like a banana [recently expired TotalFark]
2023-02-03 7:09:03 PM  

Geotpf: I believe the general election polls more than these.  For one, they are more consistent.  They all show:

Biden > Trump
Biden < DeSantis

So, one of our goals, icky as it sounds, is to make sure Trump is the Republican nominee.

/yes, I know Hillary tried this as well but it backfired


I agree. I'm worried about Biden beating anyone but TFG. (Although I'm skeptical that DeSantis would do well outside of the south.)

I still think it was a sound strategy in 2016, just poorly executed. It backfired for reasons that are not likely to be repeated. She ran a bad overconfident campaign. Everyone (including his own campaign) underestimated him. There was interference from the FBI and Russia.

TFG already lost once against Biden, and with the advantage of incumbency. And that was before 1/6 and the overturning of Roe. And this time Biden will be the incumbent.
 
Beerguy [TotalFark]
2023-02-03 7:09:09 PM  
Remember, none of us thought he could win the first time either.

/Buckle up
 
Dr Dreidel
2023-02-03 7:10:23 PM  

Aussie_As: MAGAts don't have consistent political views and jump on whichever bandwagon sucked up to them today. News at 11.


I forget where I was hearing it (maybe that Politico article on Whatshername The Election Denier from AZ earlier today?) , but Trump turned out new (largely rural) voters in a way no one had for many years - voters who, it turns out, want to vote for TRUMP and not for other Republicans. Which is why 2018 and 2022 were such disasters for Republicans: because Trump himself wasn't on the ballot (even though his handpicked candidates often were).

Anyway, it could be that likely voter models - which would filter out those Trump diehards - show Trump with low support. Which...yeah, that's the same thing that happened in 2016 to catch pollsters off guard. If they haven't updated their modeling to account for that, their numbers will similarly be weapons-grade bolognium.

// I also wouldn't discount what the document saga did to his numbers starting last August-October and lasting basically until the Biden shiat came out last month
// giving Republicans the bullshiat leeway needed to bofsidez it out of relevance
 
Weatherkiss [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-02-03 7:11:14 PM  

Beerguy: Remember, none of us thought he could win the first time either.

/Buckle up


Lightning never strikes twice! Pied Piper strategy let's gooooooo!
 
fruit flies like a banana [recently expired TotalFark]
2023-02-03 7:15:22 PM  

mistahtom: Democratic Congressional control is way more important that focusing on who the GOP nominee is.


You got any ideas on how to keep the Senate in 2024? Because looking at the map, I'm thinking the only hope is very bad Senate candidates, weighted down by a very unpopular candidate at the top of the ticket.
 
Bith Set Me Up
2023-02-03 7:17:50 PM  

Beerguy: Remember, none of us thought he could win the first time either.

/Buckle up


The people who were absolutely sure Trump wouldn't win in 2016 didn't think he'd be nominated in the first place.

Keith on ABC's "This Week" - 7/26/15
Youtube FHkPadFK34o


Weatherkiss: Beerguy: Remember, none of us thought he could win the first time either.

/Buckle up

Lightning never strikes twice! Pied Piper strategy let's gooooooo!


Democrats still think their lesson from 2004 is "Dubya's presidency wasn't shiatty enough".
 
GregInIndy
2023-02-03 7:22:00 PM  

Beerguy: Remember, none of us thought he could win the first time either.

/Buckle up


The contingent of people on the left so scarred by Trump's 2016 win that they ascribe him some sort of mysterious political superpowers is weird. The man is weak, has been beaten soundly & repeatedly before, and remains eminently beatable. There's no reason to be in fearful awe of that dipshiat.
 
Three Crooked Squirrels [TotalFark]
2023-02-03 7:24:38 PM  

MattytheMouse: LurkerSupreme: MattytheMouse: I'm polling way ahead of all these fools. Matty the Mouse 2024.

Well I imagine you're got the furry vote all locked up, and as everyone knows they're the true source of political power in this country.

I've got broad bi-partisan appeal! Democrats like me because I'm forward thinking, and republicans like me because I'm sworn enemies with Micky Mouse and will abuse the power of my office to take him on.


I like you, Matty.  Stay golden, mouse-boy!
 
whidbey
2023-02-03 7:24:59 PM  

fruit flies like a banana: mistahtom: Democratic Congressional control is way more important that focusing on who the GOP nominee is.

You got any ideas on how to keep the Senate in 2024? Because looking at the map, I'm thinking the only hope is very bad Senate candidates, weighted down by a very unpopular candidate at the top of the ticket.


Holy f*ck, why is it OUR side always has the bad news and the uphill climb?
 
mikalmd
2023-02-03 7:27:53 PM  
The only reason he's running is to keep from being indicted for his many obvious crimes and so far it seems to be working ..
 
DarnoKonrad
2023-02-03 7:30:37 PM  
I believe it.
 
fruit flies like a banana [recently expired TotalFark]
2023-02-03 7:33:32 PM  

whidbey: fruit flies like a banana: mistahtom: Democratic Congressional control is way more important that focusing on who the GOP nominee is.

You got any ideas on how to keep the Senate in 2024? Because looking at the map, I'm thinking the only hope is very bad Senate candidates, weighted down by a very unpopular candidate at the top of the ticket.

Holy f*ck, why is it OUR side always has the bad news and the uphill climb?


All a matter of perspective I guess. I think Republicans have the uphill climb for the presidency and the House, and I don't think things look great for them long-term for anything. (And they don't seem to be learning anything, like at all, from their mistakes.)
 
casey17 [TotalFark]
2023-02-03 7:33:42 PM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: Never underestimate that f*cker.  And never underestimate the hold he has over the GOP.  If he runs, they'll back him.  If they back him, he'll get the nomination.  If he gets the nomination, they've spent every minute since 2016 making sure the state houses, courts and electoral districts are prepped to make sure a Democrat can't win without a huge landslide.

FFS, why can't the Democrats play this damn game?


You ever hear of "Good Cop / Bad Cop" when LEO's want to get info out of a person?

It's like that. Except info = money.
 
erik-k [OhFark]
2023-02-03 7:35:50 PM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: And yes, I know he's running.  I mean if he SERIOUSLY runs.  Like, makes an effort bigger than the half-assed stuff he's doing now.


On the ground facts: Dump was bragging about filling a high school gym "to capacity."

If you're the former POTUS and you can't draw enough of a crowd to fill a venue that seats more than 250, you MAY not be very popular.

Dump's cultists are like the teabaggers: an INCREDIBLY loud and obnoxious minority who the reich wing media actively amplifies to give the appearance of being more than they are.
 
lilbjorn
2023-02-03 7:38:53 PM  
Hoping the first poll is for the 3rd party he intends to run as.
 
Night Train to Wakanda
2023-02-03 7:40:24 PM  

MattytheMouse: I'm polling way ahead of all these fools. Matty the Mouse 2024.


*This poll conducted by Mouses in White Houses PAC
 
TheMysteriousStranger
2023-02-03 7:43:27 PM  
So TFG is like that cat named after a famous pedophile quantum physicist.
 
buravirgil
2023-02-03 7:48:35 PM  

iheartscotch: 1. It's 2 years out

2. The last couple of polls closer to an election have been incredibly incorrect


incredibly incorrect v. credibly correct
The semantic shift of incredible from not to be believed to surprisingly true to "What in my opinion is very, very something," is lamentable.
 
Alaskan Yoda [recently expired TotalFark]
2023-02-03 7:58:31 PM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: Never underestimate that f*cker.  And never underestimate the hold he has over the GOP.  If he runs, they'll back him.  If they back him, he'll get the nomination.  If he gets the nomination, they've spent every minute since 2016 making sure the state houses, courts and electoral districts are prepped to make sure a Democrat can't win without a huge landslide.

FFS, why can't the Democrats play this damn game?


I e been thinking about this a lot lately.
it's because with a two party system, we've ended up with Nazis in one party and everyone else in the other. Huge spectrum of beliefs, faiths, cultures, creeds, gender and sex spectrums. It is hard to make a cord instead effort especially against s cult where they speak amd act with one mind.
 
The Irresponsible Captain [TotalFark]
2023-02-03 8:11:02 PM  

MattytheMouse: I'm polling way ahead of all these fools. Matty the Mouse 2024.


I took a pole for your campaign. 100% of the people in the tent were upset.
 
I hereby demand that I be given a Fark account [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-02-03 8:19:20 PM  

fruit flies like a banana: Geotpf: I believe the general election polls more than these.  For one, they are more consistent.  They all show:

Biden > Trump
Biden < DeSantis

So, one of our goals, icky as it sounds, is to make sure Trump is the Republican nominee.

/yes, I know Hillary tried this as well but it backfired

I agree. I'm worried about Biden beating anyone but TFG. (Although I'm skeptical that DeSantis would do well outside of the south.)

I still think it was a sound strategy in 2016, just poorly executed. It backfired for reasons that are not likely to be repeated. She ran a bad overconfident campaign. Everyone (including his own campaign) underestimated him. There was interference from the FBI and Russia.

TFG already lost once against Biden, and with the advantage of incumbency. And that was before 1/6 and the overturning of Roe. And this time Biden will be the incumbent.


Biden will lose.

Period.

I was hope he'd resign after he farked up with secure documents, but no. So we're stuck with him.

And he's going to get his clock cleaned.
 
I hereby demand that I be given a Fark account [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-02-03 8:21:11 PM  

GregInIndy: Beerguy: Remember, none of us thought he could win the first time either.

/Buckle up

The contingent of people on the left so scarred by Trump's 2016 win that they ascribe him some sort of mysterious political superpowers is weird. The man is weak, has been beaten soundly & repeatedly before, and remains eminently beatable. There's no reason to be in fearful awe of that dipshiat.


Beaten soundly?

How long did we wait until we found out Biden had won Arizona?

Reagan beat Mondale soundly. Obama beat Romney soundly.

Biden barely beat Trump.
 
Beerguy [TotalFark]
2023-02-03 8:22:18 PM  

GregInIndy: Beerguy: Remember, none of us thought he could win the first time either.

/Buckle up


The contingent of people on the left so scarred by Trump's 2016 win that they ascribe him some sort of mysterious political superpowers is weird. The man is weak, has been beaten soundly & repeatedly before, and remains eminently beatable. There's no reason to be in fearful awe of that dipshiat.

If Trump had been indicted FOR ANYTHING, I would agree 100% with you. Him literally getting away with everything has actually energized his base even more than in 2016. He should have already been disqualified from holding ANY public office in the future.
 
jake3988 [OhFark]
2023-02-03 8:22:39 PM  

Hubris Boy: People lie to pollsters. Apparently pollsters haven't figured this out yet.


No, it just depends on the question.  The question and how it's phrased is extremely important.  Apparently Farkers haven't figured that out yet.

For example, one of the big polls ran included JUST Trump and DeSantis.  Another included Trump, DeSantis, and a bunch of other republicans.  In the one between Trump and DeSantis, Trump got walloped.  But between everyone, Trump came out ahead, significantly.  Presumably the never-trumpers and move-on-from-trumpers votes are diluted between everyone and as a result, Trump comes out ahead.  But when it's just the two of them , they all converge on the only other person.

So just from those two big polls, it should be pretty obvious what is happening.  It says republicans want to move on (duh), it says Trump still have a decent but non-majority amount of people who still worship the ground he stands on (duh), and it says that it (probably) doesn't matter who is running against him, they just want to move on.

So it seems like they're contradictory, but they really aren't.
 
Mugato [TotalFark]
2023-02-03 8:23:59 PM  

I hereby demand that I be given a Fark account: I was hope he'd resign after he farked up with secure documents, but no. So we're stuck with him.


How did he fark up with secure documents?
 
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