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(AP News)   If you happen to live in a state where sports gambling is legal, and are wondering how to wager your hard-earned money on today's NFL games, Vegas oddsmakers are there for you with a collective ¯\_(ツ)_/¯   (apnews.com) divider line
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    More: Obvious, Super Bowl, Cincinnati Bengals, Playoffs, Philadelphia Eagles, Tight end, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, CBS  
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466 clicks; posted to Sports » on 29 Jan 2023 at 10:48 AM (8 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



33 Comments     (+0 »)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
i_dig_chicks
2023-01-29 10:55:42 AM  
Take the under 45.5 in NFC game both teams have great defenses.  Take the Over 48.5 in the AFC.  Going to be a balmy 17F at kickoff in KC.  Both teams will come out firing.
 
madgonad [OhFark]
2023-01-29 11:17:38 AM  
Somebody needs to explain how the odds on the NFC game were calculated.

The Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite and have homefield advantage. The Eagles destroyed the Giants last week and the Niners squeaked past the Cowboys. While I acknowledge that the Niners defense will do better than the Giants the matchups are all in the Eagles favor.
 
Clash City Farker
2023-01-29 11:29:16 AM  
I had already bet on the Bills last week because all the football experts on TV were picking them.
 
mistahtom
2023-01-29 11:30:26 AM  

madgonad: Somebody needs to explain how the odds on the NFC game were calculated.

The Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite and have homefield advantage. The Eagles destroyed the Giants last week and the Niners squeaked past the Cowboys. While I acknowledge that the Niners defense will do better than the Giants the matchups are all in the Eagles favor.


Difficulty: Giants beat a historically choking division winner.

Also difficulty: cowboys beat a 8-9 division winner with a 45 year old QB.
 
Wadded Beef [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-01-29 11:36:09 AM  
I'm pulling for the Bengals and Niners, but I'll happily take two games that are in doubt well into the fourth quarter.
 
Olympic Trolling Judge
2023-01-29 11:42:47 AM  
The Bengals are underdogs again, which paradoxically makes me slightly more confident in their chances.  That line's been bouncing around like a cryptocurrency or meme stock.
 
Calehedron
2023-01-29 11:45:42 AM  

madgonad: Somebody needs to explain how the odds on the NFC game were calculated.

The Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite and have homefield advantage.


Homefield is part of the spread calculation. It also moves based on how heavily the betting is on one side or the other and maybe SF was getting lots of action at a larger spread. If you feel that it is too low, put your money on the Eagles.

I am staying away from betting on this one for "emotional conflict of interest". I am a lifelong Cowboys fan, my oldest son played Pop Warner on the Eagles and it is his favorite team. When he played in the STYFL, one of the boys he played against every year on the Special Forces was Brock Purdy. We are originally from Alabama, die hard Crimson Tide fans, and cheer on the guys that made into the NFL.
 
snowshovel
2023-01-29 11:48:42 AM  

madgonad: Somebody needs to explain how the odds on the NFC game were calculated.

The Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite and have homefield advantage. The Eagles destroyed the Giants last week and the Niners squeaked past the Cowboys. While I acknowledge that the Niners defense will do better than the Giants the matchups are all in the Eagles favor.


Is really aren't based on who the better team is directly, the odds are based on, well, bets.  And bets aren't always based on our mathematical calculus of the better team, but based on the number local fan boys.

It's a lot easier for SF fans to drive to Nevada and place a bet on their team than it is for someone in Philadelphia. If you are using Las Vegas odds as a barometer, popular California teams are a bit overweighted because of this.  Also, any team that has a very large country-wide fan base are most likely overbetted to some degree (say, the Cubs or Cowboys).

The bookies are just setting the odds to equalize the action evenly, they aren't really saying "who is the better team by this margin".
 
madgonad [OhFark]
2023-01-29 11:52:41 AM  

Calehedron: madgonad: Somebody needs to explain how the odds on the NFC game were calculated.

The Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite and have homefield advantage.

Homefield is part of the spread calculation. It also moves based on how heavily the betting is on one side or the other and maybe SF was getting lots of action at a larger spread. If you feel that it is too low, put your money on the Eagles.

I am staying away from betting on this one for "emotional conflict of interest". I am a lifelong Cowboys fan, my oldest son played Pop Warner on the Eagles and it is his favorite team. When he played in the STYFL, one of the boys he played against every year on the Special Forces was Brock Purdy. We are originally from Alabama, die hard Crimson Tide fans, and cheer on the guys that made into the NFL.


I don't live in a state where it is legal...yet.

The Eagles brought their 'A' game against the Giants and just murdered them. The Eagles also don't have any weaknesses. They also won't be stupid when they get way ahead and go all Prevent and low-risk on offense. That's why I was surprised the line wasn't closer to 7 or 8. I still wouldn't be the over. A 31-3 score is not an unlikely ending.
 
madgonad [OhFark]
2023-01-29 11:54:45 AM  

snowshovel: madgonad: Somebody needs to explain how the odds on the NFC game were calculated.

The Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite and have homefield advantage. The Eagles destroyed the Giants last week and the Niners squeaked past the Cowboys. While I acknowledge that the Niners defense will do better than the Giants the matchups are all in the Eagles favor.

Is really aren't based on who the better team is directly, the odds are based on, well, bets.  And bets aren't always based on our mathematical calculus of the better team, but based on the number local fan boys.

It's a lot easier for SF fans to drive to Nevada and place a bet on their team than it is for someone in Philadelphia. If you are using Las Vegas odds as a barometer, popular California teams are a bit overweighted because of this.  Also, any team that has a very large country-wide fan base are most likely overbetted to some degree (say, the Cubs or Cowboys).

The bookies are just setting the odds to equalize the action evenly, they aren't really saying "who is the better team by this margin".


I thought about that too, but Jersey isn't too far from Philly. When I saw the opening line I assumed an avalanche of Eagles bets would roll in, but obviously that didn't happen.
 
Kyle Butler
2023-01-29 12:12:02 PM  

madgonad: Somebody needs to explain how the odds on the NFC game were calculated.

The Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite and have homefield advantage. The Eagles destroyed the Giants last week and the Niners squeaked past the Cowboys. While I acknowledge that the Niners defense will do better than the Giants the matchups are all in the Eagles favor.


Well now, thanks for that. I do live a a state that has BetMGM and I am going to bet 10G on the on the Iggles giving the 2 1/2.
 
Your_Huckleberry
2023-01-29 12:15:03 PM  

madgonad: Calehedron: madgonad: Somebody needs to explain how the odds on the NFC game were calculated.

The Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite and have homefield advantage.

Homefield is part of the spread calculation. It also moves based on how heavily the betting is on one side or the other and maybe SF was getting lots of action at a larger spread. If you feel that it is too low, put your money on the Eagles.

I am staying away from betting on this one for "emotional conflict of interest". I am a lifelong Cowboys fan, my oldest son played Pop Warner on the Eagles and it is his favorite team. When he played in the STYFL, one of the boys he played against every year on the Special Forces was Brock Purdy. We are originally from Alabama, die hard Crimson Tide fans, and cheer on the guys that made into the NFL.

I don't live in a state where it is legal...yet.

The Eagles brought their 'A' game against the Giants and just murdered them. The Eagles also don't have any weaknesses. They also won't be stupid when they get way ahead and go all Prevent and low-risk on offense. That's why I was surprised the line wasn't closer to 7 or 8. I still wouldn't be the over. A 31-3 score is not an unlikely ending.


I'm not a Niner fan and I think the Eagles are gonna win, but I'd be really, really surprised if this was a blowout. Shanahan doesn't get blown out very often.
History shows that San Francisco will get off to a lead that they eventually blow. That's usually how Shanahan loses in the playoffs.
 
phimuskapsi [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-01-29 12:19:16 PM  

madgonad: The Eagles also don't have any weaknesses.


Neither do the Niners. I honestly think the 49'er defense is going to surprise a lot of people.
---------------------

I play parlays, it's pretty much all I do, it keeps my costs down low and my wins have high returns. This is my least scary parlay of the weekend, and think it has a decent chance to hit.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
madgonad [OhFark]
2023-01-29 12:37:07 PM  

phimuskapsi: Neither do the Niners. I honestly think the 49'er defense is going to surprise a lot of people.


Yeah they do. McCaffrey is excellent, but their passing game is nothing special. They have been riding their running game since they added him against the Chiefs. We have seen a decent secondary hold Purdy under 200 yards. The Eagles are bringing a top run and pass defense. Certainly better than Dallas that held them to 19 (and only one TD)
 
Calehedron
2023-01-29 12:44:25 PM  

phimuskapsi: madgonad: The Eagles also don't have any weaknesses.

Neither do the Niners. I honestly think the 49'er defense is going to surprise a lot of people.
---------------------

I play parlays, it's pretty much all I do, it keeps my costs down low and my wins have high returns. This is my least scary parlay of the weekend, and think it has a decent chance to hit.

[Fark user image 378x575]


Those look pretty good to me also.

Like you, I do mid shot parlays for $5-10 for the excitement of it. I am going to miss it when I move next weekend to where it isn't allowed online.

/Why, Oregon, WHY?!
 
eyeq360 [TotalFark]
2023-01-29 12:52:42 PM  

Olympic Trolling Judge: The Bengals are underdogs again, which paradoxically makes me slightly more confident in their chances.  That line's been bouncing around like a cryptocurrency or meme stock.


The spread is pretty thin with the Chiefs vs Bengals at 1.5 points. That's pretty much Vegas saying it's a toss-up without saying it is a toss-up.
 
phimuskapsi [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-01-29 12:55:59 PM  

Calehedron: Like you, I do mid shot parlays for $5-10 for the excitement of it. I am going to miss it when I move next weekend to where it isn't allowed online.

/Why, Oregon, WHY?!


Oh that sucks!

It does add a lot more fun to other games that I watch other than my team's. I find myself getting into more games because of it and knowing more players. I rarely exceed $5-10 a bet, and usually hang around in the $2-3 range, with a max of $25 a week during the football season, and baseball season, outside that I don't know enough to gamble intelligently. 

Every week I always do a $1-2 flier for some stupid odds, once I figured out you can stack SGP's in DK to get absolutely obscene odds, I find it fun to try and manipulate it. Last week I had one that was +32 million, this week one that is +5 million.

Fun Fact:
During the WC I setup 4 SGP's with 5 picks each for the max of 20 picks DK allows in a slip. The overall odds? +2 billion. The system would only let me bet $0.05 on it, and the minimum is $0.10. Then the app crashed.
 
orangehat
2023-01-29 12:59:48 PM  

snowshovel: madgonad: Somebody needs to explain how the odds on the NFC game were calculated.

The Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite and have homefield advantage. The Eagles destroyed the Giants last week and the Niners squeaked past the Cowboys. While I acknowledge that the Niners defense will do better than the Giants the matchups are all in the Eagles favor.

Is really aren't based on who the better team is directly, the odds are based on, well, bets.  And bets aren't always based on our mathematical calculus of the better team, but based on the number local fan boys.

It's a lot easier for SF fans to drive to Nevada and place a bet on their team than it is for someone in Philadelphia. If you are using Las Vegas odds as a barometer, popular California teams are a bit overweighted because of this.  Also, any team that has a very large country-wide fan base are most likely overbetted to some degree (say, the Cubs or Cowboys).

The bookies are just setting the odds to equalize the action evenly, they aren't really saying "who is the better team by this margin".


Eagles fans could easily drive to New Jersey since it literally borders Philadelphia and it's the state that took their case to the Supreme Court making all of this nationwide sports betting legal.
 
phimuskapsi [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-01-29 1:06:03 PM  

orangehat: Eagles fans could easily drive to New Jersey since it literally borders Philadelphia and it's the state that took their case to the Supreme Court making all of this nationwide sports betting legal.


There is literally a train that runs from Philly to Atlantic City, I've ridden it.
 
eyeq360 [TotalFark]
2023-01-29 1:12:06 PM  
If the Chiefs can get a run game going with Pacheco and McKinnon, it should open up the passing game and get Kelce and the WRs open. And it should take some heat off Mahomes and his ankle sprain. If they decide to go pass-happy, I think the Cleveland defense goes feasting.

Chiefs defense needs to cover Chase and limit the damage done in the middle. They've been bad at stopping power runs and passes down the middle. They let Chase run free or they can't stop the run down the middle and Cincy's offense is going to score plenty of points.
 
germ78
2023-01-29 1:14:34 PM  

i_dig_chicks: Take the under 45.5 in NFC game both teams have great defenses.  Take the Over 48.5 in the AFC.  Going to be a balmy 17F at kickoff in KC.  Both teams will come out firing.


The degenerate gambling report on the local sports talker had mentioned around last Wednesday that the line in the AFC game was at like 40.5 when there was still a lot of uncertainty with Mahomes' injury status and that it would be a good time to take the over.

/probably shoulda put a $20 on the over back then
 
meanmutton
2023-01-29 1:15:25 PM  

madgonad: Somebody needs to explain how the odds on the NFC game were calculated.

The Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite and have homefield advantage. The Eagles destroyed the Giants last week and the Niners squeaked past the Cowboys. While I acknowledge that the Niners defense will do better than the Giants the matchups are all in the Eagles favor.


Odds are places such that the bookies get equal action on both sides of a bet. They don't care if a team wins or loses or by how much; they just want equal money on both sides of every wager.
 
king of vegas
2023-01-29 1:15:35 PM  

phimuskapsi: orangehat: Eagles fans could easily drive to New Jersey since it literally borders Philadelphia and it's the state that took their case to the Supreme Court making all of this nationwide sports betting legal.

There is literally a train that runs from Philly to Atlantic City, I've ridden it.


New Jersey is also the state which made it illegal in the first place.
 
meanmutton
2023-01-29 1:20:49 PM  

orangehat: snowshovel: madgonad: Somebody needs to explain how the odds on the NFC game were calculated.

The Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite and have homefield advantage. The Eagles destroyed the Giants last week and the Niners squeaked past the Cowboys. While I acknowledge that the Niners defense will do better than the Giants the matchups are all in the Eagles favor.

Is really aren't based on who the better team is directly, the odds are based on, well, bets.  And bets aren't always based on our mathematical calculus of the better team, but based on the number local fan boys.

It's a lot easier for SF fans to drive to Nevada and place a bet on their team than it is for someone in Philadelphia. If you are using Las Vegas odds as a barometer, popular California teams are a bit overweighted because of this.  Also, any team that has a very large country-wide fan base are most likely overbetted to some degree (say, the Cubs or Cowboys).

The bookies are just setting the odds to equalize the action evenly, they aren't really saying "who is the better team by this margin".

Eagles fans could easily drive to New Jersey since it literally borders Philadelphia and it's the state that took their case to the Supreme Court making all of this nationwide sports betting legal.


Pennsylvania has legal sports betting. They don't have to drive anywhere.
 
Hey Nurse! [OhFark]
2023-01-29 1:24:25 PM  

Olympic Trolling Judge: The Bengals are underdogs again, which paradoxically makes me slightly more confident in their chances.  That line's been bouncing around like a cryptocurrency or meme stock.


High ankle sprain - they'll lose. But he's better - they'll win. But he might be lying that he's better- they'll lose. I saw him practice, he's fine -they'll win.  I am a Chiefs fan. I sincerely hope they win. But if they do lose, it would not surprise me. I would like to see a Chiefs Eagles game.
 
Calehedron
2023-01-29 1:25:07 PM  

phimuskapsi: Calehedron: Like you, I do mid shot parlays for $5-10 for the excitement of it. I am going to miss it when I move next weekend to where it isn't allowed online.

/Why, Oregon, WHY?!

Oh that sucks!

It does add a lot more fun to other games that I watch other than my team's. I find myself getting into more games because of it and knowing more players. I rarely exceed $5-10 a bet, and usually hang around in the $2-3 range, with a max of $25 a week during the football season, and baseball season, outside that I don't know enough to gamble intelligently. 

Every week I always do a $1-2 flier for some stupid odds, once I figured out you can stack SGP's in DK to get absolutely obscene odds, I find it fun to try and manipulate it. Last week I had one that was +32 million, this week one that is +5 million.

Fun Fact:
During the WC I setup 4 SGP's with 5 picks each for the max of 20 picks DK allows in a slip. The overall odds? +2 billion. The system would only let me bet $0.05 on it, and the minimum is $0.10. Then the app crashed.


We are kindred gambling spirits! Definitely ups my attention to everything going on. I do stack shorter SGPs and my other favorite in basketball is to make a long shot based on each player's O/U for points, rebounds, and assists until the app won't take another bet then throw $1-2 at it. Sorta like PowerBall at that point.
 
phimuskapsi [TotalFark] [OhFark]
2023-01-29 2:57:17 PM  

Calehedron: Sorta like PowerBall at that point.


Exactly how I see it, except I control the odds I get (mostly).
 
MarylandGirl
2023-01-29 3:29:23 PM  
My parlay on this game involves some sort of bet guarantee from BetMGM, where I'll get my money back (a whole $20) in bets if I lose.
Hurts 1+ passing TD
Hurts 199+ passing yards
TD by McCaffrey any time
Eagles -2.5

Apparently I should have bet on a Purdy fumble!
 
snowshovel
2023-01-29 6:25:44 PM  

meanmutton: orangehat: snowshovel: madgonad: Somebody needs to explain how the odds on the NFC game were calculated.

The Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite and have homefield advantage. The Eagles destroyed the Giants last week and the Niners squeaked past the Cowboys. While I acknowledge that the Niners defense will do better than the Giants the matchups are all in the Eagles favor.

Is really aren't based on who the better team is directly, the odds are based on, well, bets.  And bets aren't always based on our mathematical calculus of the better team, but based on the number local fan boys.

It's a lot easier for SF fans to drive to Nevada and place a bet on their team than it is for someone in Philadelphia. If you are using Las Vegas odds as a barometer, popular California teams are a bit overweighted because of this.  Also, any team that has a very large country-wide fan base are most likely overbetted to some degree (say, the Cubs or Cowboys).

The bookies are just setting the odds to equalize the action evenly, they aren't really saying "who is the better team by this margin".

Eagles fans could easily drive to New Jersey since it literally borders Philadelphia and it's the state that took their case to the Supreme Court making all of this nationwide sports betting legal.

Pennsylvania has legal sports betting. They don't have to drive anywhere.


The article is about Vegas bookies. Not Amish bookies.
 
relaxitsjustme [TotalFark]
2023-01-29 8:01:59 PM  

meanmutton: Odds are places such that the bookies get equal action on both sides of a bet. They don't care if a team wins or loses or by how much; they just want equal money on both sides of every wager.


I see this repeated over and over but it is incorrect.  Bookmakers have power ranking systems and set the line according to where their system tells them it should be.  They may adjust the line or the vig as money comes in on one side or the other but it takes a lot of money or some sharp action to move the line.  It is not just trying to balance out the cash on both sides.
 
RminusQ
2023-01-29 8:52:27 PM  

madgonad: The Eagles brought their 'A' game against the Giants and just murdered them. The Eagles also don't have any weaknesses. They also won't be stupid when they get way ahead and go all Prevent and low-risk on offense. That's why I was surprised the line wasn't closer to 7 or 8. I still wouldn't be the over. A 31-3 score is not an unlikely ending.


Not quite wizard, but deserves some credit anyway.
 
Kyle Butler
2023-01-30 8:27:48 AM  
That guy on the far right is the face you  see a second before you die.


indiewire.comView Full Size
 
madgonad [OhFark]
2023-01-30 3:10:28 PM  

RminusQ: madgonad: The Eagles brought their 'A' game against the Giants and just murdered them. The Eagles also don't have any weaknesses. They also won't be stupid when they get way ahead and go all Prevent and low-risk on offense. That's why I was surprised the line wasn't closer to 7 or 8. I still wouldn't be the over. A 31-3 score is not an unlikely ending.

Not quite wizard, but deserves some credit anyway.


Thanks. I really thought that everyone would expect a pounding, but a lot of people and Vegas thought otherwise.

I do wonder if a healthy QB and fewer penalties would matter, but we also waged an injured Mahomes and about five other injuries across the starters not prevent a win. Always remember that the next man up might surprise you.
 
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