Skip to content
Do you have adblock enabled?
 
If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(Marketwatch)   Economists blame drop in labor force participation on "long social distancing" instead of companies refusing to pay their workers a living wage   (marketwatch.com) divider line
    More: Unlikely, Telecommuting, Labor force, Economics, Unemployment, Labor, Workforce, U.S. workers, Discouraged worker  
•       •       •

360 clicks; posted to Business » on 07 Dec 2022 at 9:33 AM (8 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



52 Comments     (+0 »)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


Oldest | « | 1 | 2 | » | Newest | Show all

 
2022-12-07 7:37:52 AM  
"Economists" also blame global inflation on Federal reserve policy, which is a neat trick.
 
2022-12-07 7:56:02 AM  
stop impersonating science and show your work, economists.
 
2022-12-07 8:00:26 AM  
It's simple really... Baby boomers leaving the workforce and lack of immigrants. There, you don't really need a PhD in Economics for that.

We're in a labor hole that was talked about for a few decades and everyone seems to forgot about it.
 
2022-12-07 8:22:38 AM  
You mean some people realized they can live with the exact same housing and food insecurity without going to a demeaning dead-end job everyday where you're treated like crap? Let me find my shocked face

It's like people realizing they've been paying for effectively worthless health insurance that leaves them just as destitute after a major medical issue as if they had no insurance at all. They would still be bankrupt but they'd have bought new tires and gone to the dentist rather than paying for the insurance execs third home. The juice is often no longer worth the squeeze

/maybe 50 years for demanding quarterly profit increases wasn't the best way to sustain an economy?
 
2022-12-07 8:46:47 AM  
Are you kidding me?  After I got that $1200 check I retired and have been living off the interest it generates
 
2022-12-07 9:42:46 AM  

NewportBarGuy: It's simple really... Baby boomers leaving the workforce and lack of immigrants. There, you don't really need a PhD in Economics for that.

We're in a labor hole that was talked about for a few decades and everyone seems to forgot about it.


That and a few million dead or now disabled workers.
 
2022-12-07 9:47:41 AM  

Tr0mBoNe: stop impersonating science and show your work, economists.


Then you would SEE that they are only shilling for Wall Street.
When I hear a rich capitalist start talking about "the economy", I interpret it on that basis.
This is just "Stop doing what Wall Street doesn't like!"
When they say "THE economy", they mean THEIR economy.
 
2022-12-07 9:47:46 AM  

NewportBarGuy: It's simple really... Baby boomers leaving the workforce and lack of immigrants. There, you don't really need a PhD in Economics for that.

We're in a labor hole that was talked about for a few decades and everyone seems to forgot about it.


Yeah, I'm wondering why this is a thing that need to be contemplated.  These are known knowns.

1.  Migrant inflows cratered starting in 2017 and haven't recovered.  Much of our service economy, specifically the tourist economy of hotels and restaurants, relied on cheap labor.  If you've stayed in a hotel in the last decade, you've probably noticed that your servers were Eastern European and your maids were Mexican or Central American.  Even the national parks and adjoining tourist towns are staffed by migrants on work visas.  College kids don't take those jobs any more.

2.  Massive numbers of Boomers are retiring.  Florida land prices are booming because of it.  The Villages is America's fastest growing city.
 
2022-12-07 9:59:23 AM  
The comments are refreshingly of a "lmao get bent farkward" caliber.  Only 1 or 2 that are blaming everything on lazy parasitic youths.
 
2022-12-07 10:07:34 AM  

NewportBarGuy: It's simple really... Baby boomers leaving the workforce and lack of immigrants. There, you don't really need a PhD in Economics for that.

We're in a labor hole that was talked about for a few decades and everyone seems to forgot about it.


The labor force participation rate among prime-age workers has dropped.  That's the major problem.  People have gotten squeezed too hard and saying fark it, going ride out on the night train, or live on the outskirts of society (instead we blame deaths of despair and homelessness on a myriad of other problems).  Immigration is down because the reality is that they can't even afford to live here on the wages they get and have enough to send money back home and save as they have in the past unless they have a good hook up with a fixer who works for an upstanding contractor, and contractors are getting squeezed as they don't want to give up their standard of living (pretty well versed here as I worked often in these type of jobs in my youth alongside these guys doing demo, construction, and pool management).   Can't do much about the boomers retiring and since everyone is so squeezed birth rates just haven't kept up (which is getting exponentially worse, we are only seeing the beginning of the problems here).

This is the end game of wealth inequality and making sure the largest age cohort was able to keep their standard of living increasing (even well into retirement for many that have large nest eggs) with imaginary fiscal policies that benefited them.  The economics people, both on the private and government side, both understand this, but most only mention it in passing like it's a problem for another day, and that's mostly because they are disconnected from what the youth are feeling and experiencing, but these people see it in their own children, and when it's hiatting the children of privileged people, you have a major problem on your hands.  Theres a reason genZ is so obsessed with investment, they understand thats really the only ticket out of this nonsense (especially how things have been engineered since the GFC).
 
2022-12-07 10:15:49 AM  
I think it's because OB/GYN malpractice insurance is so costly, and what with the plethora of complications that can lead to birth defects and..., oh wait, I guess we're talking about a more general form of Labor Force Participation.
 
2022-12-07 10:23:50 AM  

Tr0mBoNe: stop impersonating science and show your work, economists.


https://www.nber.org/papers/w30568

Here you go. Linked in the article.

It really says that long social distancing is estimated to be 2.5% of the workforce reduction. A small amount. I also imagine it would be this number regardless of wages and other economic conditions.

Please keep in mind that collectively we have been studying this for 300 years, we really do know more than you do.
 
2022-12-07 10:25:21 AM  

NewportBarGuy: It's simple really... Baby boomers leaving the workforce and lack of immigrants. There, you don't really need a PhD in Economics for that.

We're in a labor hole that was talked about for a few decades and everyone seems to forgot about it.


Yeah, but economists are the ones tracking this stuff so...
 
2022-12-07 10:26:46 AM  
"More than two years after the coronavirus pandemic began, a desire for social distancing is still keeping some people from going back to work"

Wrong. It's stopping people from going to work in places where they have to come into contact with the diseased hordes. People like the jellohead and their publication that wrote this are just pissed that the poor schmucks who bore the brunt of the COVID shatstorm while waiting on them hand and foot have decided to opt out and work elsewhere when they could.

Make your own goddamn latte.
 
2022-12-07 10:30:12 AM  

Communist Middleschool Student: Tr0mBoNe: stop impersonating science and show your work, economists.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30568

Here you go. Linked in the article.

It really says that long social distancing is estimated to be 2.5% of the workforce reduction. A small amount. I also imagine it would be this number regardless of wages and other economic conditions.

Please keep in mind that collectively we have been studying this for 300 years, we really do know more than you do.


Sorry I was wrong about the 2.5% being fixed, as it says below, mo' money means mo' participation.
The impact on the earnings-weighted participation rate is smaller at about 1.4 percentage points.
 
2022-12-07 10:31:03 AM  

rewind2846: "More than two years after the coronavirus pandemic began, a desire for social distancing is still keeping some people from going back to work"

Wrong. It's stopping people from going to work in places where they have to come into contact with the diseased hordes. People like the jellohead and their publication that wrote this are just pissed that the poor schmucks who bore the brunt of the COVID shatstorm while waiting on them hand and foot have decided to opt out and work elsewhere when they could.

Make your own goddamn latte.


Yes, that's what the article says.
 
2022-12-07 10:32:32 AM  
The economists also have no clue of how many people work for cash. The off-the-books employment either legit or illicit is at least twice the size of estimates. Wheeling and dealing is so much easier now than 20 years ago and there are a lot of avenues. To refurb or sell furniture, years ago you had to develop skills, do the work, schlep your stuff to flea markets or use classified ads. Now people can learn to do everything in videos and post an ad locally or on etsy.

The money doenst have to be great, but if it's enough for one spouse to stay home and pay some bills, it's probably better than minimum wage since people are home with the kids and not paying for child care.

For someone like me, I have no problem asking contractors for a discount for cash, and with aggressive negociation, I can get the costs down 15-20 percent. It's not my ass if they don't pay taxes and I always have them write a receipt and snap a photo with their phone to send to me.

There was a great article on the cash economy a year or so ago on fark from either the NYT or WP but I can't find it anymore. It was insightful.
 
2022-12-07 10:32:35 AM  

Tr0mBoNe: stop impersonating science and show your work, economists.


economics and math are only loosely acquainted.
 
2022-12-07 10:37:58 AM  

Communist Middleschool Student: Tr0mBoNe: stop impersonating science and show your work, economists.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30568

Here you go. Linked in the article.

It really says that long social distancing is estimated to be 2.5% of the workforce reduction. A small amount. I also imagine it would be this number regardless of wages and other economic conditions.

Please keep in mind that collectively we have been studying this for 300 years, we really do know more than you do.


True, but 2.5% of the reduction is inconsequential.
 
2022-12-07 10:50:52 AM  

BeesNuts: The comments are refreshingly of a "lmao get bent farkward" caliber.  Only 1 or 2 that are blaming everything on lazy parasitic youths.


That's one of my pet peeves, "The kids these days are lazy" and "he's only here for a paycheck"... I'm only at work for a paycheck, if I didn't need the money I'd be on a house Zeppelin crewed by strippers, fully stocked with cocaine and good booze.

As for the "Kids don't want to work these days"... who the fark does?  That's why it's work, you're getting paid to do things you don't really want to do and I've been hearing about how the kids these days are lazy since they were talking about me.

The people that say those sorts of things are usually the shiattiest workers themselves in my experience.

As for the drop in labor force... no shiat, baby boomers are retiring/dying en masse.  We've realized this was coming for decades and we decided to go all anti-immigration at the same time.
 
2022-12-07 10:52:59 AM  
TFA:2.5% of the workforce still isn't returning to work at all because of covid, which makes a bigger impact than you might think.

Fark: *Generic opinions about the Great Resignation.*
 
2022-12-07 10:53:50 AM  

Tr0mBoNe: stop impersonating science and show your work, economists.


Fark user imageView Full Size

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-12-07 10:54:49 AM  
With the increasing use of automation and robotics, we desperately need a drop in labor force participation. This so-called labor shortage will flip. We should prepare now.

1. Implement universal trade school, vocational school, technical school, and undergrad. This helps delay entry of younger people into the labor market. When they do enter the market, they are more skilled and educated and, thus more productive.

2. Lower the minimum retirement age to 55. For individuals born after 1980, reverse the penalties so that an individual gets the maximum Social Security retirement benefit when retiring at age 55. At age 60, reduce that benefit by 5%. At age 65, reduce the benefit by 10% below the maximum. This will encourage people to exit the labor market making way for younger workers to enter and move up.

3. Remove the FICA cap and bump up Social Security retirement checks for the lowest earners so a laborer can actually afford to retire at 55 without undue threat to his health or safety.

4. Implement and fund M4A so that individuals, who might otherwise retire, don't have to maintain a job just to have health insurance. This would also create jobs because the individual with a small business idea could implement it without fear of losing his health insurance or fear of being unable to afford health insurance for the three employees he would need. (A business that small may not be required to provide health insurance, but, without M4A, who could afford to work for him?)

If we do all of that before the next wave of automation and robotics, we may be able to avert the next employment crises.
 
2022-12-07 11:02:58 AM  

badplaid: The economists also have no clue of how many people work for cash. The off-the-books employment either legit or illicit is at least twice the size of estimates. Wheeling and dealing is so much easier now than 20 years ago and there are a lot of avenues. To refurb or sell furniture, years ago you had to develop skills, do the work, schlep your stuff to flea markets or use classified ads. Now people can learn to do everything in videos and post an ad locally or on etsy.

The money doenst have to be great, but if it's enough for one spouse to stay home and pay some bills, it's probably better than minimum wage since people are home with the kids and not paying for child care.

For someone like me, I have no problem asking contractors for a discount for cash, and with aggressive negociation, I can get the costs down 15-20 percent. It's not my ass if they don't pay taxes and I always have them write a receipt and snap a photo with their phone to send to me.

There was a great article on the cash economy a year or so ago on fark from either the NYT or WP but I can't find it anymore. It was insightful.


If anything goes wrong in your home afterwards.  If there's a house fire, and they're not licensed and bonded guess who's ass is on the line.  You just voided your home insurance and documented it on Fark.

Keep your mouth shut if you suspect you're getting illegal work done on your house.

/Source, construction experience.
 
2022-12-07 11:03:32 AM  
Instead of paying a living wage, corporations demand that more low wage immigrants be imported for exploitation.
They claim that this will allow them to lower prices. https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/11/economy/chamber-of-commerce-inflation/index.html

And the CEO's agree, of course, that the cure for labor shortages is not to raise wages, but to import more low wage workers. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/15/dominos-ceo-us-needs-more-immigration-to-address-worker-shortages.html

Strangely, many of America's poorest and exploited workers agree with the CEO's and corporations. They actually believe that more low wage workers will solve poverty and inequality.

Maybe misery really does love company.
 
2022-12-07 11:04:36 AM  

DaMannimal: since everyone is so squeezed birth rates just haven't kept up (which is getting exponentially worse, we are only seeing the beginning of the problems here).



Yes, what the Earth needs is another billion people. Is this what passes as thinking and long-term planning among economists?

I'm not targeting you personally as you are certainly not the only person to espouse the low-birth rates is bad for the economy theory. I suspect it is pushed by the same nihilists that promote the myth that war is good for the economy.
 
2022-12-07 11:04:43 AM  

badplaid: The economists also have no clue of how many people work for cash. The off-the-books employment either legit or illicit is at least twice the size of estimates. Wheeling and dealing is so much easier now than 20 years ago and there are a lot of avenues. To refurb or sell furniture, years ago you had to develop skills, do the work, schlep your stuff to flea markets or use classified ads. Now people can learn to do everything in videos and post an ad locally or on etsy.

The money doenst have to be great, but if it's enough for one spouse to stay home and pay some bills, it's probably better than minimum wage since people are home with the kids and not paying for child care.

For someone like me, I have no problem asking contractors for a discount for cash, and with aggressive negociation, I can get the costs down 15-20 percent. It's not my ass if they don't pay taxes and I always have them write a receipt and snap a photo with their phone to send to me.

There was a great article on the cash economy a year or so ago on fark from either the NYT or WP but I can't find it anymore. It was insightful.


Actually though, there are economists who study off the books economy, or at least try to.  Sudhir Venkatesh being one of them.
 
2022-12-07 11:18:24 AM  

CCNP: Instead of paying a living wage, corporations demand that more low wage immigrants be imported for exploitation.
They claim that this will allow them to lower prices. https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/11/economy/chamber-of-commerce-inflation/index.html

And the CEO's agree, of course, that the cure for labor shortages is not to raise wages, but to import more low wage workers. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/15/dominos-ceo-us-needs-more-immigration-to-address-worker-shortages.html

Strangely, many of America's poorest and exploited workers agree with the CEO's and corporations. They actually believe that more low wage workers will solve poverty and inequality.

Maybe misery really does love company.


We could have both higher wages and carefully negotiated semi-open or open borders. It would require enforcing the minimum wage as to everyone, even undocumented immigrants. It would require creating a legal and social environment wherein employers would fear underpaying anyone, including immigrants, due to the consequences.

Mind you, it wouldn't be easy. There would be thousands of details to hammer out: Is there a common currency? A common passport? An Amero-union? How do you protect human health, the worker's access to a living wage, endangered animals, the environment and so on? And we could count on the worst, most abusive corporations and other actors attempting to subvert the negotiations at every step.

My grandparents had two dichotomous proverbs that they frequently repeated. The road to hell is paved with good intentions. Can't never could - a statement made when they felt a person or group was not really trying and was too quick to give up. When it comes to having more open borders, WITHOUT screwing over the average person in any of the participating nations, I'm a Can't Never Could person, but I can see a genuine risk of it turning into a The Road to Hell is Paved with Good Intentions situation.
 
2022-12-07 11:19:01 AM  

Communist Middleschool Student: Tr0mBoNe: stop impersonating science and show your work, economists.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30568

Here you go. Linked in the article.

It really says that long social distancing is estimated to be 2.5% of the workforce reduction. A small amount. I also imagine it would be this number regardless of wages and other economic conditions.

Please keep in mind that collectively we have been studying this for 300 years, we really do know more than you do.


Economics explains everything and predicts nothing.

Economists don't know more, but they are very practiced in claiming they know more.
 
2022-12-07 11:21:16 AM  

Communist Middleschool Student: NewportBarGuy: It's simple really... Baby boomers leaving the workforce and lack of immigrants. There, you don't really need a PhD in Economics for that.

We're in a labor hole that was talked about for a few decades and everyone seems to forgot about it.

Yeah, but economists are the ones tracking this stuff so...


Economists use government data sources for this.

They read animal entrails to predict the future.

Economists don't add value other than "proving" whatever point the person paying them wants proven.
 
2022-12-07 11:24:10 AM  
look if i'm a wind up in the same basic life style situation, regardless of if i bust arse r not, then yeah, rationally i'm take that without all the pointless effort of stuffing more value in your pocket.
 
2022-12-07 11:25:33 AM  

Fireproof: TFA:2.5% of the workforce still isn't returning to work at all because of covid, which makes a bigger impact than you might think.

Fark: *Generic opinions about the Great Resignation.*


I interpreted it as "of the workforce not returning, 2.5% can be attributed to views on covid".

But you are saying 2.5% of the workforce hasn't returned and it is specifically due to views on distancing related to covid?
 
2022-12-07 11:26:08 AM  

electricjebus: badplaid: The economists also have no clue of how many people work for cash. The off-the-books employment either legit or illicit is at least twice the size of estimates. Wheeling and dealing is so much easier now than 20 years ago and there are a lot of avenues. To refurb or sell furniture, years ago you had to develop skills, do the work, schlep your stuff to flea markets or use classified ads. Now people can learn to do everything in videos and post an ad locally or on etsy.

The money doenst have to be great, but if it's enough for one spouse to stay home and pay some bills, it's probably better than minimum wage since people are home with the kids and not paying for child care.

For someone like me, I have no problem asking contractors for a discount for cash, and with aggressive negociation, I can get the costs down 15-20 percent. It's not my ass if they don't pay taxes and I always have them write a receipt and snap a photo with their phone to send to me.

There was a great article on the cash economy a year or so ago on fark from either the NYT or WP but I can't find it anymore. It was insightful.

If anything goes wrong in your home afterwards.  If there's a house fire, and they're not licensed and bonded guess who's ass is on the line.  You just voided your home insurance and documented it on Fark.

Keep your mouth shut if you suspect you're getting illegal work done on your house.

/Source, construction experience.


I use licensed and bonded guys. I just ask them to take cash and they always do at a discount.  My electrician is the best in the area. Loves the cash. The transaction is what the transaction is. If he just makes it disappear for his books, I am fine with that. I have a receipt.

And I am not worried about how a mason can mess up decorative stairs to cause a fire or a tree guy who did his job safely removed 6 tree limbs or how a guy installed gutter guards and put up 10 new shingles.

Your warning is dumb and not real life.

Also in that market, 70 percent of licensed and bonded guys are deplorables so they will disappear or be dicks when the rubber meets the road anyway. Dissolve the company and reincorporate under their wife's name.

I wish the government would go after collusion in those markets tho. They all talk to each other and price fix in the local areas. It's dispicable.
 
2022-12-07 11:27:29 AM  

Bruscar: DaMannimal: since everyone is so squeezed birth rates just haven't kept up (which is getting exponentially worse, we are only seeing the beginning of the problems here).


Yes, what the Earth needs is another billion people. Is this what passes as thinking and long-term planning among economists?

I'm not targeting you personally as you are certainly not the only person to espouse the low-birth rates is bad for the economy theory. I suspect it is pushed by the same nihilists that promote the myth that war is good for the economy.


It is bad for the economy based on the system we have.  My personal beliefs have nothing to do with it, but unless we have literal wholesale changes to the system, it is what it is.  If you think the elites (or even the top 20% of income earners) are going to give up the system, that's fool hardy.  Or even the middle class, it would take a massive understanding that people would need to downgrade their standards of living, in a system where people vote that's not happening.  Unless everyone else starts protesting by violent means, nothing will change.  In our system money is more powerful than votes because it buys votes and influence.  So the only way you get systemic change is through violent revolt or hyperinflation/starvation that leads to violent revolt.  History is pretty clear on this.
 
2022-12-07 11:27:51 AM  
You people don't know what you are talking about... the drop in labor force participation has nothing to do with a large portion of the population retiring.  There are millions of 20 somethings all becoming tik-tok influencers.

/I'm thinking about quitting my job and filming myself chopping wood to make a living
 
2022-12-07 11:33:44 AM  

Bruscar: CCNP: Instead of paying a living wage, corporations demand that more low wage immigrants be imported for exploitation.
They claim that this will allow them to lower prices. https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/11/economy/chamber-of-commerce-inflation/index.html

And the CEO's agree, of course, that the cure for labor shortages is not to raise wages, but to import more low wage workers. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/15/dominos-ceo-us-needs-more-immigration-to-address-worker-shortages.html

Strangely, many of America's poorest and exploited workers agree with the CEO's and corporations. They actually believe that more low wage workers will solve poverty and inequality.

Maybe misery really does love company.

We could have both higher wages and carefully negotiated semi-open or open borders. It would require enforcing the minimum wage as to everyone, even undocumented immigrants. It would require creating a legal and social environment wherein employers would fear underpaying anyone, including immigrants, due to the consequences.

Mind you, it wouldn't be easy. There would be thousands of details to hammer out: Is there a common currency? A common passport? An Amero-union? How do you protect human health, the worker's access to a living wage, endangered animals, the environment and so on? And we could count on the worst, most abusive corporations and other actors attempting to subvert the negotiations at every step.

My grandparents had two dichotomous proverbs that they frequently repeated. The road to hell is paved with good intentions. Can't never could - a statement made when they felt a person or group was not really trying and was too quick to give up. When it comes to having more open borders, WITHOUT screwing over the average person in any of the participating nations, I'm a Can't Never Could person, but I can see a genuine risk of it turning into a The Road to Hell is Paved with Good Intentions situation.


Yea, it's gotten so bad that almost 1% of American workers now make minimum wage.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2021/home.htm
 
2022-12-07 11:41:06 AM  

Bruscar: DaMannimal: since everyone is so squeezed birth rates just haven't kept up (which is getting exponentially worse, we are only seeing the beginning of the problems here).


Yes, what the Earth needs is another billion people. Is this what passes as thinking and long-term planning among economists?

I'm not targeting you personally as you are certainly not the only person to espouse the low-birth rates is bad for the economy theory. I suspect it is pushed by the same nihilists that promote the myth that war is good for the economy.


It's not nihlists. Humans have never ever not once lived in any other system where the top charasmatic people were 1% and hoarded wealth, then there is a middle to keep happy with manipulation either forced or through mental games and propoganda and using human nature's stranger bias, and a slave class.

Never since the first tribal leader killed the biggest beast to feed the village while being handsome enough to take the hottest wife in the tribe. Most people just want to eat. If that guy keeps brinhing in the meat and all you need to do to also eat is help him dress the carcass or give him tips on being a better hunter or help his wife groom or clean up his stuff, this will go on. It's even better when he creates rules to tie you down like telling people to marry and have kids. Makes it harder for him to be usurped. When another version of him comes along from another place, he will band his horde and tell his people that if they want to eat, that they should help eliminate him.  But more often than not, the 1% charasmatic people will just all band together since they have the same problems and can use that to control their own individual populations even easier.

Describe to me another way humans have lived.
 
2022-12-07 11:50:05 AM  

badplaid: Bruscar: DaMannimal: since everyone is so squeezed birth rates just haven't kept up (which is getting exponentially worse, we are only seeing the beginning of the problems here).


Yes, what the Earth needs is another billion people. Is this what passes as thinking and long-term planning among economists?

I'm not targeting you personally as you are certainly not the only person to espouse the low-birth rates is bad for the economy theory. I suspect it is pushed by the same nihilists that promote the myth that war is good for the economy.

It's not nihlists. Humans have never ever not once lived in any other system where the top charasmatic people were 1% and hoarded wealth, then there is a middle to keep happy with manipulation either forced or through mental games and propoganda and using human nature's stranger bias, and a slave class.

Never since the first tribal leader killed the biggest beast to feed the village while being handsome enough to take the hottest wife in the tribe. Most people just want to eat. If that guy keeps brinhing in the meat and all you need to do to also eat is help him dress the carcass or give him tips on being a better hunter or help his wife groom or clean up his stuff, this will go on. It's even better when he creates rules to tie you down like telling people to marry and have kids. Makes it harder for him to be usurped. When another version of him comes along from another place, he will band his horde and tell his people that if they want to eat, that they should help eliminate him.  But more often than not, the 1% charasmatic people will just all band together since they have the same problems and can use that to control their own individual populations even easier.

Describe to me another way humans have lived.


Read Debt: The First 5000 years and wash this weird ahistory off of your brain meat.
 
2022-12-07 12:09:31 PM  

Bruscar: With the increasing use of automation and robotics, we desperately need a drop in labor force participation. This so-called labor shortage will flip. We should prepare now.

1. Implement universal trade school, vocational school, technical school, and undergrad. This helps delay entry of younger people into the labor market. When they do enter the market, they are more skilled and educated and, thus more productive.

2. Lower the minimum retirement age to 55. For individuals born after 1980, reverse the penalties so that an individual gets the maximum Social Security retirement benefit when retiring at age 55. At age 60, reduce that benefit by 5%. At age 65, reduce the benefit by 10% below the maximum. This will encourage people to exit the labor market making way for younger workers to enter and move up.

3. Remove the FICA cap and bump up Social Security retirement checks for the lowest earners so a laborer can actually afford to retire at 55 without undue threat to his health or safety.

4. Implement and fund M4A so that individuals, who might otherwise retire, don't have to maintain a job just to have health insurance. This would also create jobs because the individual with a small business idea could implement it without fear of losing his health insurance or fear of being unable to afford health insurance for the three employees he would need. (A business that small may not be required to provide health insurance, but, without M4A, who could afford to work for him?)

If we do all of that before the next wave of automation and robotics, we may be able to avert the next employment crises.


1. Governments have been doing this since day one using drafts for wars and developing a soldier class. It's easier for them to do this than to find and pay trained people to teach in every small locale. Also, many of those young people get eliminated so it's a win win for governments to reset that demographic. It won't ever happen today. There aren't enough jobs for tradesmen. If you made teaching and uber drivers and delivery people middle class trade-like jobs like they used to be again, maybe, but cars repair won't even be much of a thing soon, new houses don't have as many plumbing or hvac or shoddy building materials issues. Most tradework now is plug and play with an emphasis on ccomplex code comprehension. What trades do you think will grow? Even robot building and robot repair will be done by robots. The AI is already there.

2. Good idea, but old people are miserable and alone now. They also don't want to learn new things typically. Dropping that down 10 years and taking what is often the only source of happiness for that demographic (their jobs), away will just make everyone's life worse.

3. Why do old low skill laborers get this break disproportionately? Companies should do this with pensions like we used to have. Work a steel mill and bust your ass for 25 years to where your value to the company declines, free Healthcare and some fraction of pay until you die. Why shift that to the government? Mandate companies to do that. Oh wait, both sides now hate unions.

4. I agree with this with some caveats. Any unhealthy living based on the AI risk metrics of your personal makeup or your demographic throws you off the dole just like if you do dumb stuff in your car or with your homeowners insurance. If the government is keeping you alive, then you must do your part. Accidents and heredity can be isolated (unless your accident is like base jumping or from anonymous truckstop sex or something), but you need to maintain a healthy weight, have moderation in bad habits and get routine check ups. They won't cost anying. If you don't like it and don't like that government control fine. Opt out. But you still need to pay in if society decides that's the way to go to make things better for the majority.
 
2022-12-07 12:20:59 PM  

NewportBarGuy: It's simple really... Baby boomers leaving the workforce and lack of immigrants. There, you don't really need a PhD in Economics for that.

We're in a labor hole that was talked about for a few decades and everyone seems to forgot about it.


Also, a shirtload of people who normally check out the Help Wanted signs died.
 
2022-12-07 12:25:47 PM  

electricjebus: who the fark does?


My wife for one. She audits tax returns for the State. Says it's amazing how many people have a half million dollars flowing through their accounts, but on paper they manage to qualify for welfare.

PSA: If you make less than a half million (or your life style looks like you make that) you have zero concerns about audits. Just not worth the time.
 
2022-12-07 12:32:01 PM  

BeesNuts: badplaid: Bruscar: DaMannimal: since everyone is so squeezed birth rates just haven't kept up (which is getting exponentially worse, we are only seeing the beginning of the problems here).


Yes, what the Earth needs is another billion people. Is this what passes as thinking and long-term planning among economists?

I'm not targeting you personally as you are certainly not the only person to espouse the low-birth rates is bad for the economy theory. I suspect it is pushed by the same nihilists that promote the myth that war is good for the economy.

It's not nihlists. Humans have never ever not once lived in any other system where the top charasmatic people were 1% and hoarded wealth, then there is a middle to keep happy with manipulation either forced or through mental games and propoganda and using human nature's stranger bias, and a slave class.

Never since the first tribal leader killed the biggest beast to feed the village while being handsome enough to take the hottest wife in the tribe. Most people just want to eat. If that guy keeps brinhing in the meat and all you need to do to also eat is help him dress the carcass or give him tips on being a better hunter or help his wife groom or clean up his stuff, this will go on. It's even better when he creates rules to tie you down like telling people to marry and have kids. Makes it harder for him to be usurped. When another version of him comes along from another place, he will band his horde and tell his people that if they want to eat, that they should help eliminate him.  But more often than not, the 1% charasmatic people will just all band together since they have the same problems and can use that to control their own individual populations even easier.

Describe to me another way humans have lived.

Read Debt: The First 5000 years and wash this weird ahistory off of your brain meat.


I will check out the book. But you can look back a million years and it will have no relevance. The industrial, the information and now the social media revolutions along with now almost 80 years of global peace have changed everything. We still all mainly use government systems from before these occurred. The charasmatic 1% won't allow for any change there. So even if some anthropologist economist turns my theory upside down and adds complexities to my theory, there is no way to use that info today to make informed decisions. The rules are different. We all have information. We all communicate in real time globally. The gatekeepers have not figured out how to control that yet. The only way they know how to do that is to roll back the rules or invent a global crisis. That's not working.
 
2022-12-07 12:42:17 PM  

severedtoe: Tr0mBoNe: stop impersonating science and show your work, economists.

economics and math are only loosely acquainted.


I would contend that Math is being used as Economists' personal sex slave.

There are few relationships as abusive as that one.
 
2022-12-07 12:43:38 PM  

badplaid: BeesNuts: badplaid: Bruscar: DaMannimal: since everyone is so squeezed birth rates just haven't kept up (which is getting exponentially worse, we are only seeing the beginning of the problems here).


Yes, what the Earth needs is another billion people. Is this what passes as thinking and long-term planning among economists?

I'm not targeting you personally as you are certainly not the only person to espouse the low-birth rates is bad for the economy theory. I suspect it is pushed by the same nihilists that promote the myth that war is good for the economy.

It's not nihlists. Humans have never ever not once lived in any other system where the top charasmatic people were 1% and hoarded wealth, then there is a middle to keep happy with manipulation either forced or through mental games and propoganda and using human nature's stranger bias, and a slave class.

Never since the first tribal leader killed the biggest beast to feed the village while being handsome enough to take the hottest wife in the tribe. Most people just want to eat. If that guy keeps brinhing in the meat and all you need to do to also eat is help him dress the carcass or give him tips on being a better hunter or help his wife groom or clean up his stuff, this will go on. It's even better when he creates rules to tie you down like telling people to marry and have kids. Makes it harder for him to be usurped. When another version of him comes along from another place, he will band his horde and tell his people that if they want to eat, that they should help eliminate him.  But more often than not, the 1% charasmatic people will just all band together since they have the same problems and can use that to control their own individual populations even easier.

Describe to me another way humans have lived.

Read Debt: The First 5000 years and wash this weird ahistory off of your brain meat.

I will check out the book. But you can look back a million years and it will have no relevance. The industrial, the information and now the social media revolutions along with now almost 80 years of global peace have changed everything. We still all mainly use government systems from before these occurred. The charasmatic 1% won't allow for any change there. So even if some anthropologist economist turns my theory upside down and adds complexities to my theory, there is no way to use that info today to make informed decisions. The rules are different. We all have information. We all communicate in real time globally. The gatekeepers have not figured out how to control that yet. The only way they know how to do that is to roll back the rules or invent a global crisis. That's not working.


https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/arts/english/currentstudents/undergraduate/modules/fulllist/special/statesofdamage/syllabus201516/graeber-debt_the_first_5000_years.pdf
 
2022-12-07 12:53:50 PM  

D135: You people don't know what you are talking about... the drop in labor force participation has nothing to do with a large portion of the population retiring.  There are millions of 20 somethings all becoming tik-tok influencers.

/I'm thinking about quitting my job and filming myself chopping wood to make a living


Too late.

Milling, Cutting, and Delivering Lumber For Targets!!
Youtube vokW47PohOk
 
2022-12-07 12:58:14 PM  

badplaid: BeesNuts: badplaid: Bruscar: DaMannimal: since everyone is so squeezed birth rates just haven't kept up (which is getting exponentially worse, we are only seeing the beginning of the problems here).


Yes, what the Earth needs is another billion people. Is this what passes as thinking and long-term planning among economists?

I'm not targeting you personally as you are certainly not the only person to espouse the low-birth rates is bad for the economy theory. I suspect it is pushed by the same nihilists that promote the myth that war is good for the economy.

It's not nihlists. Humans have never ever not once lived in any other system where the top charasmatic people were 1% and hoarded wealth, then there is a middle to keep happy with manipulation either forced or through mental games and propoganda and using human nature's stranger bias, and a slave class.

Never since the first tribal leader killed the biggest beast to feed the village while being handsome enough to take the hottest wife in the tribe. Most people just want to eat. If that guy keeps brinhing in the meat and all you need to do to also eat is help him dress the carcass or give him tips on being a better hunter or help his wife groom or clean up his stuff, this will go on. It's even better when he creates rules to tie you down like telling people to marry and have kids. Makes it harder for him to be usurped. When another version of him comes along from another place, he will band his horde and tell his people that if they want to eat, that they should help eliminate him.  But more often than not, the 1% charasmatic people will just all band together since they have the same problems and can use that to control their own individual populations even easier.

Describe to me another way humans have lived.

Read Debt: The First 5000 years and wash this weird ahistory off of your brain meat.

I will check out the book. But you can look back a million years and it will have no relevance. The industrial, the ...


Cool.  When you're finished with that, you can follow up with Capitalist Realism to disabuse you of the notion that nothing can change simply because it feels like the end of history.
 
2022-12-07 1:09:56 PM  
Isn't this more Covid resulting in less work force, instead of putting the burden on the work force to die for a little economic growth?

I mean it's not like making more money for billionaires will actually help those folk in any way either.
 
2022-12-07 1:11:32 PM  

BeesNuts: badplaid: BeesNuts The industrial, the ...

Cool.  When you're finished with that, you can follow up with Capitalist Realism to disabuse you of the notion that nothing can change simply because it feels like the end of history.


I'm not saying nothing will change. I am saying everything will change. It will be a few years so I don't care. I didn't have kids so my concerns are minimal.

The governments dont know what to do now. We are only 9 years past the infection point of 2013. AI should be in a viable state around 2035 and food security initiatives won't be ready for prime time until 2050 or so. I am happy to benefit from the industrial revolution and thrilled to be living through the information, and social media revolutions. I will be in my twilight for the AI and food security revolutions but I hope on my deathbed I can touch a button and get an Al's Beef 1993 recipe version as my last meal.

I definitely don't want to be around when governments have to figure out how to control people after that. They will be almost out if levers, especially if >51 percent of the population is mixed race and religious affiliations further diminish. The skin color and religious levers will be gone too. Add in an increased amount of gender and sexual fluidity and even gender manipulation levers will be gone. It's gonna be wild. Just not for me.
 
2022-12-07 1:32:42 PM  
Both my parents (Boomers) left the workforce during Covid, not really by choice, they figured out how to make it work (they are divorced and live separately).   Neighbor had a kid, she quit her job to be a stay at home mom.  With the cost of everything going up and wages not keeping pace, it was a better for her family to take the pay cut and stay home.   My brother left the work force, he was a theater tech/ roddie.  All that shut down, and is just now starting to open back up.  His body is a wreck (he is 55), so he is 'gettin by'.   That doesnt cover to the lack of immigration, so about 1/2 the fast food places are only drive thru now, at least during the week.   Throw in population decline and its all just coming to a head.
 
2022-12-07 5:30:44 PM  

FleshMonkey: Communist Middleschool Student: Tr0mBoNe: stop impersonating science and show your work, economists.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30568

Here you go. Linked in the article.

It really says that long social distancing is estimated to be 2.5% of the workforce reduction. A small amount. I also imagine it would be this number regardless of wages and other economic conditions.

Please keep in mind that collectively we have been studying this for 300 years, we really do know more than you do.

Economics explains everything and predicts nothing.

Economists don't know more, but they are very practiced in claiming they know more.


I guess if you say so.

But I know that's factually incorrect.
 
Displayed 50 of 52 comments


Oldest | « | 1 | 2 | » | Newest | Show all


View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

This thread is closed to new comments.

Continue Farking




On Twitter


  1. Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.

  2. When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.

  3. Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.

  4. Click here to submit a link.