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(Some Royal Patronage)   Deep dive into the Ukraine war. And it's not everything you're expecting. The battle for Kyiv might have been different if the Russians had showed up with loaded weapons   (rusi.org) divider line
    More: Awkward  
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2475 clicks; posted to Politics » on 01 Dec 2022 at 12:20 PM (9 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-12-01 9:27:00 AM  
Treat every weapon as if it were loaded.
Right?
 
2022-12-01 10:40:35 AM  
What you expect them to think of everything?

Well I guess subby never forgot to pack something for a trip they were taking!
Throwing stones at glass houses it seems!
 
2022-12-01 12:20:59 PM  
The Russians sort of forgot that they HAD to win in Kiev, and take out the government in one fell swoop. They had no plan B. They had parade uniforms packed, and not a whole lot of food, or even warm clothing. They thought they were just going to nip over, and then send in a caretaking mob to keep the yobbos in line, and then split the country up between the oligarchs and it would be just a matter of rigging an election to get the band back together again. They drew up their plans assuming that they'd win at every single turn, and that resistance wasn't going to happen.

Which, maybe should tell folks how the Russians figure an invasion against them might turn out.
 
2022-12-01 12:26:17 PM  

hubiestubert: The Russians sort of forgot that they HAD to win in Kiev, and take out the government in one fell swoop. They had no plan B. They had parade uniforms packed, and not a whole lot of food, or even warm clothing. They thought they were just going to nip over, and then send in a caretaking mob to keep the yobbos in line, and then split the country up between the oligarchs and it would be just a matter of rigging an election to get the band back together again. They drew up their plans assuming that they'd win at every single turn, and that resistance wasn't going to happen.

Which, maybe should tell folks how the Russians figure an invasion against them might turn out.


It all depended on the decapitation strike. They needed to take the airport. This would allow their elite troops to seize the government facilities and capture their leadership. Shooting down those giant transports filled with Spetznatz (or whatever their elite troops are called now) allowed UKR to quickly retake the airport and prevent a foothold that RUS could pump troops. That was Putin's plan. The rest of the troops moving in were there to occupy with minimal fighting. I can only assume the leadership responsible for that failure have received their polonium/lead injection or suffered from window/elevator shaft cancer.
 
2022-12-01 12:27:27 PM  
The Russians marched on Kyiv expecting to negotiate terms of Ukrainian surrender, not to fight a hot war.
 
2022-12-01 12:29:24 PM  

hubiestubert: The Russians sort of forgot that they HAD to win in Kiev, and take out the government in one fell swoop. They had no plan B. They had parade uniforms packed, and not a whole lot of food, or even warm clothing. They thought they were just going to nip over, and then send in a caretaking mob to keep the yobbos in line, and then split the country up between the oligarchs and it would be just a matter of rigging an election to get the band back together again. They drew up their plans assuming that they'd win at every single turn, and that resistance wasn't going to happen.

Which, maybe should tell folks how the Russians figure an invasion against them might turn out.


You'd think they would have figured out how to invade a country after World War Two. They invaded Finland and f*cked up and Germany did the same things when they invaded the former Soviet Union. Someone forgot to read the military history books. Or failed to do a Google search.
 
2022-12-01 12:32:04 PM  
Meh. It's like subduing a dragon in AD&D. You hit them with the flat of your blades. If you show that you couldhave defeated them, they're smart enough to submit to your will.
 
2022-12-01 12:37:56 PM  

madgonad: hubiestubert: The Russians sort of forgot that they HAD to win in Kiev, and take out the government in one fell swoop. They had no plan B. They had parade uniforms packed, and not a whole lot of food, or even warm clothing. They thought they were just going to nip over, and then send in a caretaking mob to keep the yobbos in line, and then split the country up between the oligarchs and it would be just a matter of rigging an election to get the band back together again. They drew up their plans assuming that they'd win at every single turn, and that resistance wasn't going to happen.

Which, maybe should tell folks how the Russians figure an invasion against them might turn out.

It all depended on the decapitation strike. They needed to take the airport. This would allow their elite troops to seize the government facilities and capture their leadership. Shooting down those giant transports filled with Spetznatz (or whatever their elite troops are called now) allowed UKR to quickly retake the airport and prevent a foothold that RUS could pump troops. That was Putin's plan. The rest of the troops moving in were there to occupy with minimal fighting. I can only assume the leadership responsible for that failure have received their polonium/lead injection or suffered from window/elevator shaft cancer.


Crazy how a couple of SAM teams effectively crippled the Russian invasion just hours after it started.
 
2022-12-01 12:37:59 PM  
The battle for Kiev might have been different if Americans hadn't shown up with weapons for the Ukrainians.

I don't think anyone doubts the effectiveness of the Stinger anti-tank missiles against the Russian Army. This war is basically a commercial for Raytheon.

*checks their stock*

Their stock went up in April.  What a coincidence.
 
2022-12-01 12:41:09 PM  
Ultimately it failed because Russia assumed Ukrainians were in fact Russian, and would act as Russians would act (e.g. submit to authority and accept servitude).  I turns out Ukrainians have decided to be Ukrainian instead.  I think in some ways this surprised even the Ukrainians a bit.
 
2022-12-01 12:41:14 PM  
Jesus people, don't do deep dives on this
We don't want to give Russia any advice here, do we?
 
2022-12-01 12:41:49 PM  

Wine Sipping Elitist: The battle for Kiev might have been different if Americans hadn't shown up with weapons for the Ukrainians.

I don't think anyone doubts the effectiveness of the Stinger anti-tank missiles against the Russian Army. This war is basically a commercial for Raytheon.

*checks their stock*

Their stock went up in April.  What a coincidence.


The article interestingly says that the role of precision munitions has been over represented in the public news sphere, and that Kyiv was saved by conventional artillery.
 
2022-12-01 12:43:23 PM  

Mikey1969: Jesus people, don't do deep dives on this
We don't want to give Russia any advice here, do we?


Russia is still using tactics(and weapons) from WW2.  They never learn.
 
2022-12-01 12:43:34 PM  

Mikey1969: We don't want to give Russia any advice here, do we?


Sure we do:

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-12-01 12:44:20 PM  
Yeah, the battle for Kyiv might have been different if the Russians had shown up expecting to fight a war instead of expecting to be greeted as liberators.
 
2022-12-01 12:45:21 PM  

madgonad: It all depended on the decapitation strike. They needed to take the airport. This would allow their elite troops to seize the government facilities and capture their leadership. Shooting down those giant transports filled with Spetznatz (or whatever their elite troops are called now) allowed UKR to quickly retake the airport and prevent a foothold that RUS could pump troops. That was Putin's plan. The rest of the troops moving in were there to occupy with minimal fighting. I can only assume the leadership responsible for that failure have received their polonium/lead injection or suffered from window/elevator shaft cancer.


they sent spetsnaz and vdv (airborne/assault).

And dropped a lot of vdv in the drink without support.

Russia doesn't have special forces like we consider them. Spersnaz are units trained for a special task.

And you don't want special operators trying to take and hold major objectives. It's a waste.
 
2022-12-01 12:45:28 PM  

hubiestubert: The Russians sort of forgot that they HAD to win in Kiev, and take out the government in one fell swoop. They had no plan B. They had parade uniforms packed, and not a whole lot of food, or even warm clothing. They thought they were just going to nip over, and then send in a caretaking mob to keep the yobbos in line, and then split the country up between the oligarchs and it would be just a matter of rigging an election to get the band back together again. They drew up their plans assuming that they'd win at every single turn, and that resistance wasn't going to happen.

Which, maybe should tell folks how the Russians figure an invasion against them might turn out.


This was literally the plan. They really didn't expect any resistance except at the Kiev airport. Which was supposed to be scattered and light.

They literally thought they would be welcomed as liberators.
 
2022-12-01 12:45:32 PM  

Wine Sipping Elitist: The battle for Kiev might have been different if Americans hadn't shown up with weapons for the Ukrainians.

I don't think anyone doubts the effectiveness of the Stinger anti-tank missiles against the Russian Army. This war is basically a commercial for Raytheon.

*checks their stock*

Their stock went up in April.  What a coincidence.


Yes, it's not like the Ukrainians have been fighting their own war, tankie. You go right ahead and think this is just a proxy war between America and Russia. [pat pat pat]
 
2022-12-01 12:47:35 PM  

Mikey1969: Jesus people, don't do deep dives on this
We don't want to give Russia any advice here, do we?


What are they going to do with this advice? Invade again? With what? 12 year olds and slingshots?
 
2022-12-01 12:50:04 PM  
Ouch. Ftfa:

The AFRF are culturally vulnerable to deception because they lack the ability to rapidly fuse information, are culturally averse to providing those who are executing orders with the context to exercise judgement, and incentivise a dishonest reporting culture.
 
2022-12-01 12:50:25 PM  

Communist Middleschool Student: Mikey1969: Jesus people, don't do deep dives on this
We don't want to give Russia any advice here, do we?

What are they going to do with this advice? Invade again? With what? 12 year olds and slingshots?


Not that they'd listen anyway.  Putin is calling the shots, and he's as ignorant as that Hitler fellow in 1944, bossing around the generals and coming up with useless ideas because he doesn't know the first thing about military strategy and logistics.  The first step for a potential Russian victory in Ukraine is overthrowing Putin.
 
2022-12-01 12:51:59 PM  

thehobbes: madgonad: It all depended on the decapitation strike. They needed to take the airport. This would allow their elite troops to seize the government facilities and capture their leadership. Shooting down those giant transports filled with Spetznatz (or whatever their elite troops are called now) allowed UKR to quickly retake the airport and prevent a foothold that RUS could pump troops. That was Putin's plan. The rest of the troops moving in were there to occupy with minimal fighting. I can only assume the leadership responsible for that failure have received their polonium/lead injection or suffered from window/elevator shaft cancer.

they sent spetsnaz and vdv (airborne/assault).

And dropped a lot of vdv in the drink without support.

Russia doesn't have special forces like we consider them. Spersnaz are units trained for a special task.

And you don't want special operators trying to take and hold major objectives. It's a waste.


They were there to take and hold the airport for the first couple days and conduct the special operations to find and neutralize the panicked UKR leadership. Plenty more transports would bring in permanent occupiers. RUS thought the UKR would be a pushover like Georgia, South Ossetia, and Crimea. Anybody that suggested that UKR might be a bit tougher on their home turf didn't live long enough to pass that on to Putin.
 
2022-12-01 12:55:20 PM  

Mikey1969: Jesus people, don't do deep dives on this
We don't want to give Russia any advice here, do we?


How about a nice game of chess?
 
2022-12-01 12:56:31 PM  

Gyrfalcon: Yeah, the battle for Kyiv might have been different if the Russians had shown up expecting to fight a war instead of expecting to be greeted as liberators.


I'm not a general and nor do I play one on TV.

But dammit, I'd be ready to fight even if I expected to be greeted as a liberator.
 
2022-12-01 12:56:39 PM  

Mikey1969: Jesus people, don't do deep dives on this
We don't want to give Russia any advice here, do we?


In fairness, TFA seems to be basically saying that we can't depend on Russia screwing themselves over forever, and here's how to make sure we're better prepared should they ever manage to figure it out.

Basically it's pointing out that Russia would have won if they hadn't shot their balls off, and that there are things that need to be done so that we don't have to depend on Russia shooting their balls off next time.
 
2022-12-01 12:57:28 PM  

Gyrfalcon: Yeah, the battle for Kyiv might have been different if the Russians had shown up expecting to fight a war instead of expecting to be greeted as liberators.


Similar to the 1/6 insurrectionists. Turns out assholes often think they're the hero.
 
2022-12-01 12:57:44 PM  
TL;DR

Artillery is still the queen of battle and the god of war.

Precision>Volume, but really hard to achieve.

If you can be seen you can be killed, it's increasingly hard hard to avoid being seen, and you need to move all the time even far behind the front lines. Anything that sits in one place dies.

Concentration of forces is critical for offensive success, dispersion essential for survival against artillery and heavy weapons. Balancing the two at appropriate times determines operational success.

Drones are critical but should be treated as consumables like ammunition or food. EW is real and drones like quadcopters don't fly much more than a couple times.

Nobody has enough ammunition stockpiled for a real shooting war.

Russian units and hardware *can* work well, but Russian institutions and leadership are garbage.

Russia's plan was bad, and Russia should feel bad.
 
2022-12-01 12:58:32 PM  

pehvbot: Ultimately it failed because Russia assumed Ukrainians were in fact Russian, and would act as Russians would act (e.g. submit to authority and accept servitude).  I turns out Ukrainians have decided to be Ukrainian instead.  I think in some ways this surprised even the Ukrainians a bit.


There are reasons Nazis really really hate Zelensky. And it's not just that he is Jewish.
 
2022-12-01 12:59:38 PM  

pehvbot: Ultimately it failed because Russia assumed Ukrainians were in fact Russian, and would act as Russians would act (e.g. submit to authority and accept servitude).  I turns out Ukrainians have decided to be Ukrainian instead.  I think in some ways this surprised even the Ukrainians a bit.


Or maybe because the Russians forgot the Russian military is made of Russians, with a big ol' history of corruption, theft, malfeasance, dereliction, lying, and papering it over to make everything seem okay. From the articles we've been getting, everyone's under-equipped, unless you can get people back home to send you money to purchase a spare uniform out of the back of a truck, and it fits suspiciously well and coincidentally has your name embroidered on the badge.

Evil High Priest: Ouch. Ftfa:

The AFRF are culturally vulnerable to deception because they lack the ability to rapidly fuse information, are culturally averse to providing those who are executing orders with the context to exercise judgement, and incentivise a dishonest reporting culture.


Yeah, pretty much this. I'm surprised by how bad it is, given they must have known it was coming, but I wouldn't say I'm shocked.
 
2022-12-01 1:03:54 PM  

Flappyhead: Mikey1969: Jesus people, don't do deep dives on this
We don't want to give Russia any advice here, do we?

Russia is still using tactics(and weapons) from WW2.  They never learn.


Same thing happened in the Civil War with the invention of the miniball.  At that point, the role of the bayonet charge was over, but even by the end of a war a LOT of commanders still hadn't figured that out. And the US military was still using horses at the beginning of WWII.  We tend to fight the current war with the tactics developed during the last one, and don't change them until we start losing.
 
2022-12-01 1:08:02 PM  
Imagine being abducted off the street, given little training, shipped out with old gear, given no food or ammunition, and ordered upon threat of death to engage the enemy.

Don't get me wrong. I am super-glad Russia is soooo incompetent. But this is beyond an epic fail.
 
2022-12-01 1:10:11 PM  
The Chickens of Kiev
 
2022-12-01 1:14:18 PM  

wxboy: we don't have to depend on Russia shooting their balls off next time.


Maybe there shouldn't be a next time
 
2022-12-01 1:16:26 PM  

BlastYoBoots: Wine Sipping Elitist: The battle for Kiev might have been different if Americans hadn't shown up with weapons for the Ukrainians.

I don't think anyone doubts the effectiveness of the Stinger anti-tank missiles against the Russian Army. This war is basically a commercial for Raytheon.

*checks their stock*

Their stock went up in April.  What a coincidence.

The article interestingly says that the role of precision munitions has been over represented in the public news sphere, and that Kyiv was saved by conventional artillery.


Great point. Seriously, the many mentions of Stingers in news reports and YouTube videos made me feel like I was watching an advertisement. Maybe they were being overrepresented on purpose.

War is a racket. Excuse my cynicism.
 
2022-12-01 1:22:19 PM  

zbtop: Nobody other than the (gun-crazy) US has enough ammunition stockpiled for a real shooting war


FTFY.

zbtop: Russian units and hardware *can* work well


I'm not seeing that supported by anything in TFA.
 
2022-12-01 1:22:41 PM  
Mikey1969: We don't want to give Russia any advice here, do we?

Mebbe. Putin might get the message.

lh3.googleusercontent.comView Full Size
 
2022-12-01 1:24:36 PM  

Gyrfalcon: Wine Sipping Elitist: The battle for Kiev might have been different if Americans hadn't shown up with weapons for the Ukrainians.

I don't think anyone doubts the effectiveness of the Stinger anti-tank missiles against the Russian Army. This war is basically a commercial for Raytheon.

*checks their stock*

Their stock went up in April.  What a coincidence.

Yes, it's not like the Ukrainians have been fighting their own war, tankie. You go right ahead and think this is just a proxy war between America and Russia. [pat pat pat]


I don't think it's that simple.

I know ... well, honestly, I assume the ousting of the pro Russia Ukrainian President had CIA fingerprints on it. Remember they wanted to join the EU, and this NATO? He was ousted because at the last minute He vetoed the move at Russian insistence. It was social media that organized the protests to get him out. The CIA loves using social media to organize protests in other countries. Their new President is a comedian, a political novice.

This is pure, pure speculation on my part. It might even sound conspiratorial, but in my view this debacle is standard us foreign policy, but nothing as simple as a proxy war. Russia has major sanctions placed against it, is cut off from major financial markets, is mired in war and internal power struggles, spending money like crazy, fomenting dissatisfaction among their people and their military weaknesses are exposed. This is not as simple as a proxy war. How is this NOT a net positive for US foreign policy?
 
2022-12-01 1:28:06 PM  
Not securing the airport and having two transports full of paratroopers get destroyed did it
 
2022-12-01 1:30:17 PM  

Evil High Priest: Ouch. Ftfa:

The AFRF are culturally vulnerable to deception because they lack the ability to rapidly fuse information, are culturally averse to providing those who are executing orders with the context to exercise judgement, and incentivise a dishonest reporting culture.


Came here to say this.  That's not an easy problem to solve.  Cultural problems were what caused this plane crash:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Cargo_Flight_8509

When I first started working as a young engineer, I determined a configuration problem that was causing a problem with a server in (I think) Dubai.  I told them what to do to fix it and they just replied that I needed to fix it.  "Fix what," I thought because the problem was all on their end and it was a 20 minute change and reboot.  After many back and forths, I realized that the people I was speaking to were unable to make any changes.  They were not culturally empowered to do so, and they couldn't tell their managers that anything was wrong.  It was crazy.  Eventually, they just stopped asking me to fix it.  I think they probably went looking for someone else to "fix" it.
 
2022-12-01 1:30:35 PM  

Mikey1969: Jesus people, don't do deep dives on this
We don't want to give Russia any advice here, do we?


Its the same criticisms that people have had of the Imperial/Soviet/Russian military for almost 120 years: their logistics is ass and their command structure is shiat.

They need conex boxes to roll on a rail gage that isn't dogshiat, so more than three of the trucks in their T3R can carry Jerrycans to their foward areas. Then once those farking 70's surplus shiatboxes get moving on the farking thunder run, the 27 year old alcoholic whose been divorced three times commanding the 17 and 18 year old idiots who need to be reminded that they need to change their foot wraps every day, need the command flexibility to operate without having to get orders from a dipshiat general with more badges than a god damn girl scout.
 
2022-12-01 1:35:54 PM  
It's spelled Kyiv ya moron!
 
2022-12-01 1:38:52 PM  

Wine Sipping Elitist: Gyrfalcon: Wine Sipping Elitist: The battle for Kiev might have been different if Americans hadn't shown up with weapons for the Ukrainians.

I don't think anyone doubts the effectiveness of the Stinger anti-tank missiles against the Russian Army. This war is basically a commercial for Raytheon.

*checks their stock*

Their stock went up in April.  What a coincidence.

Yes, it's not like the Ukrainians have been fighting their own war, tankie. You go right ahead and think this is just a proxy war between America and Russia. [pat pat pat]

I don't think it's that simple.

I know ... well, honestly, I assume the ousting of the pro Russia Ukrainian President had CIA fingerprints on it. Remember they wanted to join the EU, and this NATO? He was ousted because at the last minute He vetoed the move at Russian insistence. It was social media that organized the protests to get him out. The CIA loves using social media to organize protests in other countries. Their new President is a comedian, a political novice.

This is pure, pure speculation on my part. It might even sound conspiratorial, but in my view this debacle is standard us foreign policy, but nothing as simple as a proxy war. Russia has major sanctions placed against it, is cut off from major financial markets, is mired in war and internal power struggles, spending money like crazy, fomenting dissatisfaction among their people and their military weaknesses are exposed. This is not as simple as a proxy war. How is this NOT a net positive for US foreign policy?


Or maybe it was the Ukrainians saying GTFO and who loved Zelensky not just from tv but because obviously he was just that guy who got it.  (As the rest of the world is seeing now.)

I had Ukrainian friends in NYC and they remember the Russian horrors that happened more than once.  When they were given the choice of freedom from Russia they took it and again, as we now see, they do not want to go back.

Don't disvalue Ukraine, they are a people born out of a lot of conflict that want an egalitarian democracy not a fascist authoritarian sock puppet and they knew who had been installed and why.
 
2022-12-01 1:41:47 PM  

abb3w: zbtop: Nobody other than the (gun-crazy) US has enough ammunition stockpiled for a real shooting war



Even the US is seeing its stockpiles depleted heavily. We don't havent made a new Stinger in 20 years, and Ukraine shoots off more 155 ammo in a month than the US procures in a year currently. Current US stockpiles of artillery shells (at least from publicly available data) might keep Ukraine supplied for 18 months, maybe a couple years at the outside, before depletion, assuming Ukraine's ability/need to consume ammo doesn't increase (which it probably will as it acquires more NATO type guns and systems, and ditches or runs out of older Soviet weapons and stockpiles), but if the US needs that ammo itself, that stockpile is going to get depleted real fast.

I'm not seeing that supported by anything in TFA.

FTA:

Nevertheless, Russian weapons systems proved largely effective, and those units with a higher level of experience demonstrated that the AFRF have considerable military potential, even if deficiencies in training and the context of how they were employed meant that the Russian military failed to meet that potential.
 
2022-12-01 1:42:56 PM  

Mikey1969: Jesus people, don't do deep dives on this
We don't want to give Russia any advice here, do we?


I'm not sure that "don't suck" is the war-winning advice you think it is.
 
2022-12-01 1:47:24 PM  

Wine Sipping Elitist: Gyrfalcon: Wine Sipping Elitist: The battle for Kiev might have been different if Americans hadn't shown up with weapons for the Ukrainians.

I don't think anyone doubts the effectiveness of the Stinger anti-tank missiles against the Russian Army. This war is basically a commercial for Raytheon.

*checks their stock*

Their stock went up in April.  What a coincidence.

Yes, it's not like the Ukrainians have been fighting their own war, tankie. You go right ahead and think this is just a proxy war between America and Russia. [pat pat pat]

I don't think it's that simple.

I know ... well, honestly, I assume the ousting of the pro Russia Ukrainian President had CIA fingerprints on it. Remember they wanted to join the EU, and this NATO? He was ousted because at the last minute He vetoed the move at Russian insistence. It was social media that organized the protests to get him out. The CIA loves using social media to organize protests in other countries. Their new President is a comedian, a political novice.

This is pure, pure speculation on my part. It might even sound conspiratorial, but in my view this debacle is standard us foreign policy, but nothing as simple as a proxy war. Russia has major sanctions placed against it, is cut off from major financial markets, is mired in war and internal power struggles, spending money like crazy, fomenting dissatisfaction among their people and their military weaknesses are exposed. This is not as simple as a proxy war. How is this NOT a net positive for US foreign policy?


A fly landed on shiat in East Farkoffistan. It must be an American operation!
 
2022-12-01 1:52:48 PM  

Wine Sipping Elitist: Gyrfalcon: Wine Sipping Elitist: The battle for Kiev might have been different if Americans hadn't shown up with weapons for the Ukrainians.

I don't think anyone doubts the effectiveness of the Stinger anti-tank missiles against the Russian Army. This war is basically a commercial for Raytheon.

*checks their stock*

Their stock went up in April.  What a coincidence.

Yes, it's not like the Ukrainians have been fighting their own war, tankie. You go right ahead and think this is just a proxy war between America and Russia. [pat pat pat]

I don't think it's that simple.

I know ... well, honestly, I assume the ousting of the pro Russia Ukrainian President had CIA fingerprints on it. Remember they wanted to join the EU, and this NATO? He was ousted because at the last minute He vetoed the move at Russian insistence. It was social media that organized the protests to get him out. The CIA loves using social media to organize protests in other countries. Their new President is a comedian, a political novice.

This is pure, pure speculation on my part. It might even sound conspiratorial, but in my view this debacle is standard us foreign policy, but nothing as simple as a proxy war. Russia has major sanctions placed against it, is cut off from major financial markets, is mired in war and internal power struggles, spending money like crazy, fomenting dissatisfaction among their people and their military weaknesses are exposed. This is not as simple as a proxy war. How is this NOT a net positive for US foreign policy?


"Now I might just be making shiat up here, but..."
 
2022-12-01 1:55:22 PM  

vudukungfu: Treat every weapon as if it were loaded.
Right?


Unless maybe they're attacking and instead of firing, they're just yelling Bang! Bang!
 
2022-12-01 2:05:27 PM  

hubiestubert: The Russians sort of forgot that they HAD to win in Kiev, and take out the government in one fell swoop. They had no plan B. They had parade uniforms packed, and not a whole lot of food, or even warm clothing. They thought they were just going to nip over, and then send in a caretaking mob to keep the yobbos in line, and then split the country up between the oligarchs and it would be just a matter of rigging an election to get the band back together again. They drew up their plans assuming that they'd win at every single turn, and that resistance wasn't going to happen.

Which, maybe should tell folks how the Russians figure an invasion against them might turn out.


I think the US term for this is "success-based planning".  Yes, the US military-industrial complex uses it often enough that they have a term for it and openly admits to using it.  Hopefully it is only used to allow a contractor to delay the fark out of a project and rake in that sweet T&M while still submitting schedules that fit the legal requirement and not actual military strikes, but they use it.  Pretty sure that some of Boeing's rockets have claimed to use it.

For military use, I'd expect that it comes with authoritarian "leaders" who won't accept the possibility of failure, or even setbacks.  And disaster follows.
 
2022-12-01 2:28:50 PM  

gameshowhost: The Chickens of Kiev


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-12-01 2:39:29 PM  

StatelyGreekAutomaton: Mikey1969: Jesus people, don't do deep dives on this
We don't want to give Russia any advice here, do we?

I'm not sure that "don't suck" is the war-winning advice you think it is.


Tell that to Sun Tzu and Miyamoto Musashi.
 
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