Skip to content
Do you have adblock enabled?
 
If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(BBC-US)   How a magician-mathematician revealed a casino loophole with this one easy trick   (bbc.com) divider line
    More: Cool, Playing card, Shuffling, precision card-shuffling machines, Persi Diaconis, perfect shuffle, workings of the card shuffler, Markov chain, faro shuffle  
•       •       •

1919 clicks; posted to STEM » on 20 Oct 2022 at 11:55 PM (15 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



12 Comments     (+0 »)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2022-10-21 12:13:06 AM  
If only they could predict winning lottery numbers.
 
2022-10-21 12:55:25 AM  
A mathemagician?
 
2022-10-21 1:01:23 AM  

AirForceVet: If only they could predict winning lottery numbers.


Probably could if you studied the motion gravity pick and air mix machines they use to pick the numbers long enough.  Everything's got patterns going, just most things have so much chaos involved it's bloody difficult to see them.  Some day someone probably will run super slow mo studies of those with the ball starting positions all known and tracked as they get mixed up to see where they are.  Doubt you'd ever get to "I can tell you exactly what the numbers will be" no.  But getting to, "These numbers are 30% more likely to show up than others, and the order is much more likely to be x z y q b m than other possibilities" given the mixing time and time between picks?  Very likely could if you were willing to put the time and tech in - but it'd be a LOT of time and tech.  Measured in many years.  Barring computers taking an exponential jump in capability again or something - which is always possible.  Eventually they're going to have to come up with a non-observable method to do the picking to deter that though - at least imo.  How long till then?  That's the seriously variable part - no idea.  But if people can see it or otherwise know what's going on during the process, they can start tracking it and plotting patterns with the aid of computers - no avoiding that
 
2022-10-21 1:01:39 AM  
Card counting.

Save you time everyone, it's card counting. They dressed up 1 other story, but it's just using probability and your memory, so card counting.
 
2022-10-21 1:03:58 AM  
After reading that I am borderline having PTSD flashbacks of a college "professor" from when I did my undergrad studies who, no matter whether he was teaching some programming language, database analysis or even object-oriented design, the final exam was always the same: write-up pseudocode for a program to play the game of bridge. Knowing this in advance should make it simple, but the trick of it was to write that up correctly while at least half of the class rage quit loudly as it had absolutely nothing to do with the course material. Yes, that's right. Part of a well rounded education, at that shiat school anyway, was how to deal with nincompoops in positions of authority.
 
2022-10-21 1:07:46 AM  

batlock666: A mathemagician?


I_Understood_That_Reference.jpg

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-10-21 3:17:47 AM  
Diaconis met Alex Elmsley, a soft-spoken Scottish computer scientist and magician who had mastered the "perfect shuffle".

What a perfect shuffle might look like.

Birth of a Disco Dancer
Youtube 5-7TtbO2fio
 
2022-10-21 4:23:29 AM  
...and then casino "security" stunned him with a cattle prod and broke his hand and fingers with a hammer...
 
2022-10-21 5:40:33 AM  

Some Junkie Cosmonaut: AirForceVet: If only they could predict winning lottery numbers.

Probably could if you studied the motion gravity pick and air mix machines they use to pick the numbers long enough.  Everything's got patterns going, just most things have so much chaos involved it's bloody difficult to see them.  Some day someone probably will run super slow mo studies of those with the ball starting positions all known and tracked as they get mixed up to see where they are.  Doubt you'd ever get to "I can tell you exactly what the numbers will be" no.  But getting to, "These numbers are 30% more likely to show up than others, and the order is much more likely to be x z y q b m than other possibilities" given the mixing time and time between picks?  Very likely could if you were willing to put the time and tech in - but it'd be a LOT of time and tech.  Measured in many years.  Barring computers taking an exponential jump in capability again or something - which is always possible.  Eventually they're going to have to come up with a non-observable method to do the picking to deter that though - at least imo.  How long till then?  That's the seriously variable part - no idea.  But if people can see it or otherwise know what's going on during the process, they can start tracking it and plotting patterns with the aid of computers - no avoiding that


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Pennsylvania_Lottery_scandal
 
2022-10-21 7:33:04 AM  

Some Junkie Cosmonaut: AirForceVet: If only they could predict winning lottery numbers.

Probably could if you studied the motion gravity pick and air mix machines they use to pick the numbers long enough....


More lotteries are switching to computer draws only, though. In Canada the regional lotteries were computerized many years ago, and the national lotteries were computerized 2-3 years ago. They claim there is no discernable difference in randomness of results vs. a physical draw.  That may be, but the computerized systems are black boxes that the public doesn't get to see. They say the software is audited, but how thoroughly, who knows.

Also, at least in Canada, the cut off for buying lottery tickets is an hour before the actual draw, so, even if you could decipher the probable next numbers somehow, you couldn't buy tickets to exploit that knowledge.
 
2022-10-21 8:54:38 AM  
John Scarne?... nope.
/a name worth knowing if you like to gamble
 
2022-10-21 3:39:05 PM  

Mabman: Some Junkie Cosmonaut: AirForceVet: If only they could predict winning lottery numbers.

Probably could if you studied the motion gravity pick and air mix machines they use to pick the numbers long enough....

More lotteries are switching to computer draws only, though. In Canada the regional lotteries were computerized many years ago, and the national lotteries were computerized 2-3 years ago. They claim there is no discernable difference in randomness of results vs. a physical draw.  That may be, but the computerized systems are black boxes that the public doesn't get to see. They say the software is audited, but how thoroughly, who knows.

Also, at least in Canada, the cut off for buying lottery tickets is an hour before the actual draw, so, even if you could decipher the probable next numbers somehow, you couldn't buy tickets to exploit that knowledge.


Yeah, it's 15 minutes in California instead, but it pretty much accomplishes the same thing.  I was more talking finding the same kind of machine they used, putting the same kind of stuff in them, and running it - for ages.  And studying the hell out of the patterns that develop and relating those to results as they come in over time.  Eventually yeah you would mostly likely be able to derive an advantage out of that.  A worthwhile one?  Ehh that's where it gets ??  Along with oy would that take a long time and a lot of crunching to achieve an end result that may not be enough of an advantage to be worth bothering with

Nod on the computer thing, it's a bit hard to just trust that the system is randomizing properly - us hairless monkeys don't like what we can't see.  But that's because sometimes what you can't see is indeed malfunctioning or has been farked around with, so it's not entirely nuts.  Two conflicting priorities here - really not sure how to resolve that one.  If the past is any indication, eventually we'll just have to shut up and deal with it with system randomized stuff - as much as it makes people twitchy it's also way harder to defraud without pretty significant resources or access

/unless they're damn fool enough to network it
 
Displayed 12 of 12 comments

View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

This thread is closed to new comments.

Continue Farking




On Twitter


  1. Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.

  2. When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.

  3. Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.

  4. Click here to submit a link.