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(Guardian)   Blinken says the quiet part out loud. Hold on to your butts   (theguardian.com) divider line
    More: Obvious, Fujian, Republic of China, Communist Party of China, People's Liberation Army, Taiwan, China's government, US secretary of state, Xi Jinping  
•       •       •

5043 clicks; posted to Politics » on 18 Oct 2022 at 8:59 AM (15 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



72 Comments     (+0 »)
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2022-10-18 8:30:33 AM  
Did you just say "Abe Lincoln"?
 
2022-10-18 8:32:49 AM  
Taiwan has M60 tanks? Jesus Christ. My FATHER drove them in the 60's.
 
2022-10-18 8:42:47 AM  

NewportBarGuy: Taiwan has M60 tanks? Jesus Christ. My FATHER drove them in the 60's.


your dad was JC?  luuuuuuucky.
 
2022-10-18 8:44:35 AM  

elvisaintdead: NewportBarGuy: Taiwan has M60 tanks? Jesus Christ. My FATHER drove them in the 60's.

your dad was JC?  luuuuuuucky.


i.ytimg.comView Full Size


"HIS FATHER IS THE DISTRICT ATTORNEY!!!"
 
2022-10-18 8:48:59 AM  
Yes, that's what Secretary Blinken said.
 
2022-10-18 8:51:25 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-10-18 9:08:40 AM  
That's not exactly a secret now, is it? It's just stating the obvious. China will eventually take over Taiwan. That's what they do, and they're better equipped than Russia and smart enough to take notes on what goes wrong.

They'll keep the military approach in their pocket, maybe for quite a while. Why? Not because they can't do it, but because it's really, really expensive. Taiwan has the ability to drag it out for a prolonged period as long as they're on their own turf (much like Ukraine is proving to be able to do), but Taiwan does not have the supply routes that Ukraine does.

You can see Xi is attempting to take the Hong Kong approach - promise them they'll be semi-independent, just united under the same banner. If Taiwan allows this to start, it will end the same way - slow administrative takeover, then a hard stop if anyone goes against Beijing, in a brutal and decisive manner.
 
2022-10-18 9:08:50 AM  
Cargo cult headline writing.
 
2022-10-18 9:08:54 AM  
Looks like we truly may be in for a world war 3.
 
2022-10-18 9:11:33 AM  
Um, that's not the quiet part, that's the part that China is explicitly saying. Authoritarians are doing their best to take control of the world right now, Trump and Brexit out front should have told you.
 
2022-10-18 9:11:34 AM  

elvisaintdead: NewportBarGuy: Taiwan has M60 tanks? Jesus Christ. My FATHER drove them in the 60's.

your dad was JC?  luuuuuuucky.


Must be niiiiice
 
2022-10-18 9:12:58 AM  

NoahFenze: Looks like we truly may be in for a world war 3.


Well, we had a good run.  Bring it on!
 
2022-10-18 9:13:46 AM  

log_jammin: Cargo cult headline writing.


Um, do you know what a cargo cult is?
 
2022-10-18 9:14:28 AM  

NoahFenze: Looks like we truly may be in for a world war 3.


We talk a good talk, but we're not going to really do anything when China does take Taiwan.

That would just be the actual end to the Chinese Civil War from.. what 70 years ago?

It's going to be theirs, in time. Just like Hong Kong.

I'm sure we'll have sanctions and talk up a storm and sail our Navy by, but we're not going to get into a fight over it.
 
2022-10-18 9:15:13 AM  

eKonk: That's not exactly a secret now, is it? It's just stating the obvious.


yes

China will eventually take over Taiwan.

Eh...maybe. Maybe not. Eventually as in within how many years?

That's what they do, and they're better equipped than Russia and smart enough to take notes on what goes wrong.

Yes, they take notes. And then make their own mistakes.

They'll keep the military approach in their pocket, maybe for quite a while. Why? Not because they can't do it, but because it's really, really expensive. Taiwan has the ability to drag it out for a prolonged period as long as they're on their own turf (much like Ukraine is proving to be able to do), but Taiwan does not have the supply routes that Ukraine does.

You can see Xi is attempting to take the Hong Kong approach - promise them they'll be semi-independent, just united under the same banner. If Taiwan allows this to start, it will end the same way - slow administrative takeover, then a hard stop if anyone goes against Beijing, in a brutal and decisive manner.


Which is why Taiwan will not agree to the HK approach.
 
2022-10-18 9:15:26 AM  

SpectroBoy: elvisaintdead: NewportBarGuy: Taiwan has M60 tanks? Jesus Christ. My FATHER drove them in the 60's.

your dad was JC?  luuuuuuucky.

Must be niiiiice


You might think so, but just think of the rehashing of that story every Easter...

"And then they staked me to a pole, but jokes on them (takes another big slug of whisky) I rose from the grave 3 days later!"
 
2022-10-18 9:16:22 AM  
It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine.
 
2022-10-18 9:16:44 AM  
"You've read four articles in the past year."

No, I can assure you as a point of pride that I have not, Sir.
 
2022-10-18 9:17:27 AM  

Sorelian's Ghost: SpectroBoy: elvisaintdead: NewportBarGuy: Taiwan has M60 tanks? Jesus Christ. My FATHER drove them in the 60's.

your dad was JC?  luuuuuuucky.

Must be niiiiice

You might think so, but just think of the rehashing of that story every Easter...

"And then they staked me to a pole, but jokes on them (takes another big slug of whisky) I rose from the grave 3 days later!"


You doubt me??? Feel 'ese holes!
 
2022-10-18 9:18:19 AM  
Xi could be moving up the timeline and at the same time nothing can happen for the next 20 years.
 
2022-10-18 9:18:30 AM  
Absolutely buried in the article:

China expert, Bill Bishop, noted there was nothing in public documents or Xi's speech to indicate an accelerated timeline on the part of Beijing.

And anything with Condolezza Rice, probable war criminal, involved should be taken with a grain of salt.

eKonk has the correct take in his comment above. Nothing new here, but the US propoganda machine is pushing for conflict.
 
2022-10-18 9:20:16 AM  

Rapmaster2000: Xi could be moving up the timeline and at the same time nothing can happen for the next 20 years.


Exactly... the Chinese bide their time. If they see an opening, they'll take it. Or they'll wait decades.

Trying to call that one is a fool's errand.
 
2022-10-18 9:21:51 AM  

Tyrone Slothrop: log_jammin: Cargo cult headline writing.

Um, do you know what a cargo cult is?


um, yes.
 
2022-10-18 9:23:26 AM  

log_jammin: Tyrone Slothrop: log_jammin: Cargo cult headline writing.

Um, do you know what a cargo cult is?

um, yes.


It's a cult with extra pockets.
 
2022-10-18 9:23:54 AM  
Once upon a time we did little or no business with China. They all rode bicycles and the air was clean.

Let's go back to that.
 
2022-10-18 9:24:24 AM  
I also don't think this is a foregone conclusion. Yes, China is taking notes from what's happening in Ukraine. But so is Taiwan. And so is the US.
 
2022-10-18 9:24:38 AM  

DoctorCal: It's a cult with extra pockets.


KangaROOS!
 
2022-10-18 9:25:21 AM  
I belong to a tacticult.
 
2022-10-18 9:25:44 AM  

feltrider: Nothing new here, but the US propoganda machine is pushing for conflict.


Alas for the poor Communist Party of China. How can it compete with the imperialist running-dog lies?
 
2022-10-18 9:27:16 AM  

feltrider: Absolutely buried in the article:

China expert, Bill Bishop, noted there was nothing in public documents or Xi's speech to indicate an accelerated timeline on the part of Beijing.

And anything with Condolezza Rice, probable war criminal, involved should be taken with a grain of salt.

eKonk has the correct take in his comment above. Nothing new here, but the US propoganda machine is pushing for conflict.


China: We are going to take Taiwan, by force if necessary, before 2049

America:  hey, Taiwan is in danger.

You: amerikka war monger propaganda

Shut up tankie.
 
2022-10-18 9:29:18 AM  

log_jammin: DoctorCal: It's a cult with extra pockets.

KangaROOS!


KangaROOS were sweet.  They perfectly held a condom.
 
2022-10-18 9:32:03 AM  

NewportBarGuy: Rapmaster2000: Xi could be moving up the timeline and at the same time nothing can happen for the next 20 years.

Exactly... the Chinese bide their time. If they see an opening, they'll take it. Or they'll wait decades.

Trying to call that one is a fool's errand.


Winnie the Pooh has been eating his own propaganda, he'll do something stupid like most strongmen full of their own shiat does.
 
2022-10-18 9:33:56 AM  
I hope Taiwan has something better than old 60 class tanks...
 
2022-10-18 9:34:03 AM  

Tyrone Slothrop: log_jammin: Cargo cult headline writing.

Um, do you know what a cargo cult is?


He's pointing out subby is mimicking the form of headlines that mean something bad about the subject, but does not understand its meaning, context, or proper use. Very common practice among Fark independents.
 
2022-10-18 9:37:11 AM  

thatboyoverthere: NewportBarGuy: Rapmaster2000: Xi could be moving up the timeline and at the same time nothing can happen for the next 20 years.

Exactly... the Chinese bide their time. If they see an opening, they'll take it. Or they'll wait decades.

Trying to call that one is a fool's errand.

Winnie the Pooh has been eating his own propaganda, he'll do something stupid like most strongmen full of their own shiat does.


Well, he is increasing the armed forces substantially and the Generals wield a lot of power. It's probably more up to them.
 
2022-10-18 9:38:27 AM  

Jensaarai: Tyrone Slothrop: log_jammin: Cargo cult headline writing.

Um, do you know what a cargo cult is?

He's pointing out subby is mimicking the form of headlines that mean something bad about the subject, but does not understand its meaning, context, or proper use. Very common practice among Fark independents.


THANK YOU!
 
2022-10-18 9:48:27 AM  

NewportBarGuy: Rapmaster2000: Xi could be moving up the timeline and at the same time nothing can happen for the next 20 years.

Exactly... the Chinese bide their time. If they see an opening, they'll take it. Or they'll wait decades.

Trying to call that one is a fool's errand.


They're also pretty happy to sit and learn everything they can about Russian and NATO capabilities while they deplete their stockpiles
 
2022-10-18 9:51:06 AM  

NewportBarGuy: Rapmaster2000: Xi could be moving up the timeline and at the same time nothing can happen for the next 20 years.

Exactly... the Chinese bide their time. If they see an opening, they'll take it. Or they'll wait decades.

Trying to call that one is a fool's errand.


I think the reason Xi has a bug up his ass is China's economy is tanking and people are protesting. War is a distraction and gives him an excuse for military lockdowns and stifling dissent, securing his position.
 
2022-10-18 9:51:39 AM  

eKonk: That's not exactly a secret now, is it? It's just stating the obvious. China will eventually take over Taiwan. That's what they do, and they're better equipped than Russia and smart enough to take notes on what goes wrong.

They'll keep the military approach in their pocket, maybe for quite a while. Why? Not because they can't do it, but because it's really, really expensive. Taiwan has the ability to drag it out for a prolonged period as long as they're on their own turf (much like Ukraine is proving to be able to do), but Taiwan does not have the supply routes that Ukraine does.

You can see Xi is attempting to take the Hong Kong approach - promise them they'll be semi-independent, just united under the same banner. If Taiwan allows this to start, it will end the same way - slow administrative takeover, then a hard stop if anyone goes against Beijing, in a brutal and decisive manner.

I don't know the details of how China got Hong Kong. But I do know they were negotiating with the U.K., a tired and dying empire, not Hong Kong as a people.

I predict Xi will try at least until 2030 to use soft power and try to corrupt the Taiwanese political and business elite before going for invasion, modeled like their highly successful Belt and Road program. Beyond being a symbol of power by finally resolving the Chinese civil war, the value of Taiwan to China is it's highly educated people and industries. An invasion would destroy much of that and would be a last resort.

China will throw money at the problem for years. Maybe the next leader after Xi will invade.
Or some major change like the US having serious domestic or other problems could accelerate the invasion plans.
 
2022-10-18 9:54:42 AM  

Phaedrus the Vague: eKonk: That's not exactly a secret now, is it? It's just stating the obvious. China will eventually take over Taiwan. That's what they do, and they're better equipped than Russia and smart enough to take notes on what goes wrong.

They'll keep the military approach in their pocket, maybe for quite a while. Why? Not because they can't do it, but because it's really, really expensive. Taiwan has the ability to drag it out for a prolonged period as long as they're on their own turf (much like Ukraine is proving to be able to do), but Taiwan does not have the supply routes that Ukraine does.

You can see Xi is attempting to take the Hong Kong approach - promise them they'll be semi-independent, just united under the same banner. If Taiwan allows this to start, it will end the same way - slow administrative takeover, then a hard stop if anyone goes against Beijing, in a brutal and decisive manner.
I don't know the details of how China got Hong Kong. But I do know they were negotiating with the U.K., a tired and dying empire, not Hong Kong as a people.

I predict Xi will try at least until 2030 to use soft power and try to corrupt the Taiwanese political and business elite before going for invasion, modeled like their highly successful Belt and Road program. Beyond being a symbol of power by finally resolving the Chinese civil war, the value of Taiwan to China is it's highly educated people and industries. An invasion would destroy much of that and would be a last resort.

China will throw money at the problem for years. Maybe the next leader after Xi will invade.
Or some major change like the US having serious domestic or other problems could accelerate the invasion plans.


Your have the entire internet at your fingertips. I feel confident you can find the details.
 
2022-10-18 9:56:50 AM  

feltrider: Absolutely buried in the article:

China expert, Bill Bishop, noted there was nothing in public documents or Xi's speech to indicate an accelerated timeline on the part of Beijing.

And anything with Condolezza Rice, probable war criminal, involved should be taken with a grain of salt.

eKonk has the correct take in his comment above. Nothing new here, but the US propoganda machine is pushing for conflict.


I dont think that they are pushing for an actual conflict. I think they want to pull a larger share of the semiconductor industry on shore and they don't know how to justify the investment without hyperbole. There are a lot of national security and economic reasons to start clawing back manufacturing, not just chips, to the US. Problem is you have to justify it since it will negatively impact profits (the stock market) and cost (inflation). Politicians shy away from hard truths because it tends to lose them elections.
 
2022-10-18 10:01:20 AM  
 U.S. President Joe Biden said U.S forces would definitely defend Telefon in the event of a Cheese invasion.

Definitely!
 
2022-10-18 10:05:26 AM  

Phaedrus the Vague: eKonk: That's not exactly a secret now, is it? It's just stating the obvious. China will eventually take over Taiwan. That's what they do, and they're better equipped than Russia and smart enough to take notes on what goes wrong.

They'll keep the military approach in their pocket, maybe for quite a while. Why? Not because they can't do it, but because it's really, really expensive. Taiwan has the ability to drag it out for a prolonged period as long as they're on their own turf (much like Ukraine is proving to be able to do), but Taiwan does not have the supply routes that Ukraine does.

You can see Xi is attempting to take the Hong Kong approach - promise them they'll be semi-independent, just united under the same banner. If Taiwan allows this to start, it will end the same way - slow administrative takeover, then a hard stop if anyone goes against Beijing, in a brutal and decisive manner.
I don't know the details of how China got Hong Kong. But I do know they were negotiating with the U.K., a tired and dying empire, not Hong Kong as a people.

I predict Xi will try at least until 2030 to use soft power and try to corrupt the Taiwanese political and business elite before going for invasion, modeled like their highly successful Belt and Road program. Beyond being a symbol of power by finally resolving the Chinese civil war, the value of Taiwan to China is it's highly educated people and industries. An invasion would destroy much of that and would be a last resort.

China will throw money at the problem for years. Maybe the next leader after Xi will invade.
Or some major change like the US having serious domestic or other problems could accelerate the invasion plans.


It was a Lease. The lease expired and it went back up China. Simple as that.
 
2022-10-18 10:06:06 AM  
Any China/Taiwan war will be very different than Ukraine.  It would be an amphibious/air/naval war, not an army war.  Because of that, it will be much, much harder to accomplish.
 
2022-10-18 10:11:51 AM  

LL316: I also don't think this is a foregone conclusion. Yes, China is taking notes from what's happening in Ukraine. But so is Taiwan. And so is the US.


Even with Russia's ineptitude, the international response to Russia's invasion is giving China pause.

Nothing will happen unless we have a complicit president and congress.
 
2022-10-18 10:20:34 AM  
Hang onto your butts?  Sure, I've put on a few pounds since college but really? Butts?
 
2022-10-18 10:21:15 AM  
Call him 'Snake'.
 
2022-10-18 10:21:47 AM  

BitwiseShift: Hang onto your butts?  Sure, I've put on a few pounds since college but really? Butts?


The whole butt or the butt hole.
 
2022-10-18 10:29:20 AM  

OrionXVI: Any China/Taiwan war will be very different than Ukraine.  It would be an amphibious/air/naval war, not an army war.  Because of that, it will be much, much harder to accomplish.


Also it's a lot further away from Europe and very very close to China.

The part where most of the countries in NATO officially recognize Taiwan as part of China will further complicate matters.
 
2022-10-18 10:29:58 AM  
There are several converging reasons why I think a Taiwan conflict will be sooner rather than later.

- The last couple decades of Chinese governance being run primarily by capable technocrats is increasingly being replaced by functionaries whose primary qualification is their personal loyalty to Xi Jinping.   The Chinese government of today is not the Chinese government of the 90s.  And when a leader surrounds himself with yes-men, there aren't a lot of ways to derail his bad ideas (as we are seeing with Russia's invasion of Ukraine).  And there is a lot of evidence to suggest that Xi wants re-integrating Taiwan to be part of his legacy, which means probably a maximum 20 year window, but sooner if possible.

- China's deal with its people since the CCP took over has been the one authoritarian regimes usually promise their people "surrender your freedoms, and in exchange you will get stability and increased standards of living".  And due to China's economic growth rates, that deal has largely held up.  However, it is increasingly starting to stagnate, helped along the way by the previously mentioned less competent governance's insistence on blindly following Xi's lead, regardless of how harmful the policies are (See:  the economic harm imposed by his "Zero Covid" policies as an example).  When the economic growth stalls or reverses (worth mentioning that China just decided to stop publishing GDP figure, rarely the sign of a healthy economy), authoritarians other solution is to replace the economic argument with nationalistic saber rattling aimed at territorial expansion.

- China's heavy handed approach to Hong Kong has more or less guaranteed that a peaceful economic integration of Taiwan under a "one country, two systems" model is not happening anytime in the foreseeable future.

- Finally, if China sees its economic position relative to the US as likely to decline in the future (for example, due to a major demographic crisis that is going to hit them hard in a few decades when the current working age population retires, and there are significantly fewer people to replace them), and a soft power integration of Taiwan is impossible, then it has a strong incentive to push for a resolution at its period of greatest relative strength.
 
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