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(Yahoo)   "If the Russian Federation conducts high-quality mobilisation and provides its forces with technical means and advanced weapons, then the fighting will enter a key phase." So head KGB guy in Belarus says Russia will continue to lose   (yahoo.com) divider line
    More: Unlikely, Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Russian language, Chairman of the State Security Committee of Belarus, Ministry of Defence of Belarus, Ukrainians, Mark Hamill  
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1024 clicks; posted to Politics » on 12 Oct 2022 at 3:10 AM (16 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-10-11 10:54:29 PM  
Damn it, where's the link to the article about the guy in the wheel chair being conscripted when I need it?
 
2022-10-11 10:55:51 PM  
And if my aunt had wheels, she'd both be a wagon and a superior logistics system to whatever Russia's going to try.
 
2022-10-11 10:59:10 PM  
Are the Russians using horses now?
 
2022-10-11 11:02:48 PM  

eurotrader: Are the Russians using horses now?


I better get out of Russia.
 
2022-10-11 11:22:37 PM  

aleister_greynight: Damn it, where's the link to the article about the guy in the wheel chair being conscripted when I need it?


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-10-12 3:11:46 AM  

eurotrader: Are the Russians using horses now?


As transport or food?

/Yes
 
2022-10-12 3:12:46 AM  
Obligatory:
Gino D'Acampo "If my Grandmother had wheels she would have been a bike" -18th May 2010
Youtube A-RfHC91Ewc
 
2022-10-12 3:13:30 AM  
Remember putin: Ukrainians don't have a pre set kill limit.

Slava Ukraine! 🇺🇦
 
2022-10-12 3:14:23 AM  
"High quality" my ass! Everything Russian is crap.
 
2022-10-12 3:15:09 AM  
The bullets the Russian conscripts have been issued can kill a Russian commanding officer more easily than they can kill a Ukrainian soldier. These conscripts should look into that.
 
2022-10-12 3:18:37 AM  
Instead Russia decided to randomly round up anyone with a pulse and a penis and issue them Soviet era gear.
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1580077484321955841
 
2022-10-12 3:25:20 AM  
"If the Russian Federation conducts high-quality mobilisation and provides its forces with technical means and advanced weapons, then the fighting will enter a key phase."

If the Russian Federation could conduct high-quality mobilisation and provide its forces with technical means and advanced weapons, why didn't they do that in the first place?
 
2022-10-12 3:27:20 AM  
He is skating dangerously close to somebody in Moskva taking his statement as mocking rus army, commanders and ultimately their incompetent-in-chief putin... guy should watch out for sudden appearance of 6th storey windows, elevator shafts or polonium tipped bullets, those things are highly unpredictable and you never know when one might materialize in your vicinity


/eddies
//in the spacetime continuum
/// and his sofa
 
2022-10-12 3:30:03 AM  
If Russia keeps shooting missiles mostly randomly at civilian areas, then I recon we ... ok first we provide anti-icbm missiles, but I am so tempted to think we should offer 300 km missiles rather than 70 km.  I doubt it is something we will do, but damn the temptation is high.
 
2022-10-12 3:33:31 AM  
* oops I meant a lower level anti-missile missile than an anti-icbm, just cannot remember the name of the medium missiles.
 
2022-10-12 3:36:27 AM  
Hmm, this is a good point.

If Russia had capable military commanders, drafted a million fit and motivated recruits, had the training facilities and staff to turn those recruits into soldiers, had modern gear to equip them with, had modern vehicles to mechanize them, had the logistics to supply them, and had an effective air force to provide cover for them, then Ukraine would be in real trouble.

Anyway, back to the real world.
 
2022-10-12 3:41:50 AM  
Would it be a good idea for NATO to blitz attack Belarus?
 
2022-10-12 3:47:31 AM  

aleister_greynight: Damn it, where's the link to the article about the guy in the wheel chair being conscripted when I need it?


The guy can still serve motherland, comrade. Those mine fields are not going to detect themselves.
 
2022-10-12 4:02:52 AM  
going to be a tad difficult whilst Russia is busy de-industrialising (what remains of its industry from the previous bout in the 90s) and its armed forces are literally going backwards with regards to technology and doctrine application.
 
2022-10-12 4:02:53 AM  
Do these vatnik chuckledicks still believe Mother Russia has a secret stockpile of cutting edge, high quality military hardware just waiting for the real soldiers?
 
2022-10-12 4:08:15 AM  
And if Russia had control of Mecha Godzilla, then they could have successfully fended off any kaiju in Ukraine!
 
2022-10-12 4:10:59 AM  
That "if" is doing some mighty heavy lifting there.
 
2022-10-12 4:13:37 AM  

mistahtom: Would it be a good idea for NATO to blitz attack Belarus?


No, because:

1) Belarus isn't going to do anything... Lukashenko needs to keep his military close in order to keep control, and there is a lot of pro-Ukraine sympathy among the military and populace

2) NATO only has ~ 25k troops under NATO command in Eastern Europe (US has 100k in Europe, Poland has 122k in Poland, but those aren't available for NATO to command)

3) NATO is a defensive alliance, suddenly attacking Belarus would play into Russia's false narrative that we were planning using Ukraine as a platform to attack Russia

4) There isn't enough popular support among Western countries to send troops into Ukraine, so their definitely isn't enough support to suddenly attack Belarus unprovoked

At the end of the day, keep in mind that it is Russia and Belarus, not the West, that fears escalation the most.  Russia is losing against Ukraine, adding a quarter million US and Polish troops on top of that is their nightmare scenario.  And yes Russia has nukes, but we've got far more & far better ones.

Basically any escalation move that Russia can play, Ukraine & its backers can play 10x over.  So Russia has to somehow figure out how to stop losing, without escalating.  I doubt they can.
 
2022-10-12 4:16:23 AM  

hardinparamedic: Do these vatnik chuckledicks still believe Mother Russia has a secret stockpile of cutting edge, high quality military hardware just waiting for the real soldiers?


Right now they are using all their nice stuff on hitting places out of spite.  They are not going to be getting anything new any time soon.  China was more than willing just to buy access to most of the East, but right now I bet they are thinking that they can just take that shiat.
 
2022-10-12 4:18:08 AM  
"If?" If, if, if! If I was yellow, had wheels, and ran on diesel, I'd be farking school bus, komrade.
 
2022-10-12 4:35:53 AM  
(On that note: if you have not then look into how China can hit Russia, it turns out much harder than you think, because there are a heap of mountains in between.  There is a path through in the far west, that would be very very hard, but there are a lot more open options in the east.  Personally I always though China would either buy or take most of eastern Russia before they adventured into SE Asia.)
 
2022-10-12 4:51:20 AM  
Hasn't that basically been the case the entire war? And because Russia has terrible logistics and equipment the number one reason they withdrew from Kyiv after they ran out of fuel and bunched up together for easy bayraktar strafing runs?
 
2022-10-12 5:00:07 AM  

hardinparamedic: Do these vatnik chuckledicks still believe Mother Russia has a secret stockpile of cutting edge, high quality military hardware just waiting for the real soldiers?


Ah the classic Wunderwaffe. Amazing how history repeats itself.
 
2022-10-12 5:01:12 AM  

TappingTheVein: hardinparamedic: Do these vatnik chuckledicks still believe Mother Russia has a secret stockpile of cutting edge, high quality military hardware just waiting for the real soldiers?

Ah the classic Wunderwaffe. Amazing how history repeats itself.


maybe they played too much Wolfenstein?
 
2022-10-12 5:04:25 AM  
Empty suit propagandist spews propaganda, more at 11.

If Russia were competent, they would have won/would be winning this war, but they aren't. Two decades of treating his country like a mafia have come back to bite Putin in the ballsack. They're too corrupt and too brutal to have an effective military. They can't recruit, they have to conscript, and perhaps more importantly so much of their military spending has filtered away to commanders and suppliers along the way that what actually reaches the front line is garbage.

Friedrich Paulus said in 1953, and he would know, "even the best army is doomed to fail when it is required to perform impossible tasks, that is, when it is ordered to campaign against the national existence of other peoples." For this reason many people said before the invasion that Russia couldn't win. But I imagined a prolonged resistance, a Ukrainian people who might be temporarily conquered but not crushed. I didn't imagine that Russia was so totally inept that they couldn't even get to the prolonged insurgency phase of their losing.

Now, though, it's pretty clear that Russia cannot win. Even with nukes they can't win, they can only flip the board and ensure that at the very least, there is no Russia left in the world.
 
2022-10-12 5:05:07 AM  

Jiggatron69: TappingTheVein: hardinparamedic: Do these vatnik chuckledicks still believe Mother Russia has a secret stockpile of cutting edge, high quality military hardware just waiting for the real soldiers?

Ah the classic Wunderwaffe. Amazing how history repeats itself.

maybe they played too much Wolfenstein?


Well, they can keep walking into all the walls, until one of them moves.
 
2022-10-12 5:11:02 AM  

Langdon_777: (On that note: if you have not then look into how China can hit Russia, it turns out much harder than you think, because there are a heap of mountains in between.  There is a path through in the far west, that would be very very hard, but there are a lot more open options in the east.  Personally I always though China would either buy or take most of eastern Russia before they adventured into SE Asia.)


China would really like the Russian Far East back, but they're very, very bad at Sinicizing places lately, and Vladivostok and Khabarovsk would be virtually impossible for them to manage. They would have to give up all of their ambitions elsewhere to focus on them, and it could bring down their regime. Xi Jinping has been more brash than previous rulers, but the Chinese have historically not been that stupid and reckless with their foreign policy. Taoist traditions tend to make them quite patient.
 
2022-10-12 7:13:29 AM  
"If the Russian Federation conducts high-quality mobilisation and provides its forces with technical means and advanced weapons, then the fighting will enter a key phase."
~ Ivan Tertel

"If."
~ Unknown Spartan Ephors, 346 B.C.
 
2022-10-12 7:14:36 AM  
As the Spartans said: "If."
 
2022-10-12 7:23:34 AM  

Langdon_777: * oops I meant a lower level anti-missile missile than an anti-icbm, just cannot remember the name of the medium missiles.


Grandé ?
 
2022-10-12 7:41:33 AM  
As the Spartans said: "If".
 
2022-10-12 7:44:57 AM  
Of they haven't done it by now, it's because they don't have it to do it.
 
2022-10-12 7:47:04 AM  
Legend has the Spartans had a word for these situations, though I can't remember exactly what it is off the top of my head.
 
2022-10-12 7:47:08 AM  
My favorite observation about this;
Adding Russians to the Belarus army is like adding Old Spice to chocolate chip cookies to make them smell better.
 
2022-10-12 7:48:07 AM  
This being a modern war, I expect operational tempos will be higher in the winter than in previous European wars. I also expect precision weapons will make logistics (food and fuel) a nightmare for static emplaced troops.

I'll bet the Russians are thinking winter is time to consolidate while the Ukrainians will be actively shelling depots and logistics centers in an attempt to freeze out the Russians.
 
2022-10-12 7:48:25 AM  

Laobaojun: My favorite observation about this;
Adding Russians to the Belarus army is like adding Old Spice to chocolate chip cookies to make them smell better.


Disagree. Chocolate chip cookies are useful and delicious.
 
2022-10-12 7:49:08 AM  
They'll be lucky if they get a potato and some cloth wrappings when they get deployed.
 
2022-10-12 7:51:52 AM  
I love how Russia keeps talking about "Winter is coming!" as if Ukraine has no experience with winter in Ukraine.
 
2022-10-12 7:54:14 AM  

qorkfiend: Laobaojun: My favorite observation about this;
Adding Russians to the Belarus army is like adding Old Spice to chocolate chip cookies to make them smell better.

Disagree. Chocolate chip cookies are useful and delicious.


Belarus aren't Toll House, they're Chips Ahoy well past their sell by date.
 
2022-10-12 8:06:09 AM  
High quality? So like, they fire harden the tips of their pikes then?
 
2022-10-12 8:17:56 AM  

Paddy: "High quality" my ass! Everything Russian is crap.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-10-12 8:22:50 AM  

SomeAmerican: So Russia has to somehow figure out how to stop losing, without escalating.  I doubt they can.


Russia just has to figure out how to kill Putin.
 
2022-10-12 8:44:49 AM  
"If the Russian Federation conducts high-quality mobilisation and provides its forces with technical means and advanced weapons, then the fighting will enter a key phase. According to our estimates, there will be a turning point between November of this year and February of next year."

dontgetserious.comView Full Size
 
2022-10-12 8:46:03 AM  
Russia thought this would be over in three days. A simple smash and grab, and then instal a puppet government, and let the cash flow like honeydew vine water.

A smart person knows when to walk away. Be that at the card table, a sh*tty dinner, a date with a truly vile human, a job that is just not worth their time. Russia is caught in a sunk-cost loop, and can't really see any way out, other than throwing MOAR troops at the problem. And they didn't even mobilize all that well when they had the advantage of surprise and scale. Now that there's trouble at home thanks to their bungling, folks think that they're going to suddenly get a little smarter?

Then again, it's easier to stay out than get out, and the Russians failed to note that from the get go. And they just blew their own best bridge to get their boys home.
 
2022-10-12 8:49:32 AM  

Halfabee64: "If the Russian Federation conducts high-quality mobilisation and provides its forces with technical means and advanced weapons, then the fighting will enter a key phase. According to our estimates, there will be a turning point between November of this year and February of next year."

[dontgetserious.com image 204x153]


Yup. It will be turning point, as the Russians slog through winter in a country that is actively hostile, and supplies run low. Their logistical nightmare fuel is already looming. How many of these troops even have cold weather gear? How many of their vehicles are ready for the cold? Do they have fuel for the season?

Of all the people in the world, you'd think the Russians would be careful about a winter invasion, but they seem bound and determined to get a bunch of boys killed in the stupidest ways possible.
 
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