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(The New Yorker)   Essay on how the Ukraine war may end is the reading equivalent of taking a cold shower, outside, in Vermont, in January, while bears wait to eat you. OK, possibly submitter is not that good at metaphors but you surely get the idea   (newyorker.com) divider line
    More: Scary, World War II, Russia, war-termination, Soviet Union, т€œWar, Hein Goemans, United States, wars end  
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3770 clicks; posted to Politics » and Main » on 04 Oct 2022 at 3:50 PM (8 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-10-04 2:31:00 PM  
This essay makes a really compelling case for taking out Putin directly, without ever even suggesting it as an option.
 
2022-10-04 2:58:57 PM  
Well, that was a sobering read.
 
2022-10-04 3:23:39 PM  
Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.
 
2022-10-04 3:52:56 PM  

Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.


The scary thing is... What if you just get one of his body doubles?

/But I agree.
 
2022-10-04 3:53:58 PM  
"In recent years, a small group of scholars has focussed on war-termination theory.", yet none considered the fact that Russia didn't have nearly the stockpile of munitions and weaponry or an infantry to actually wage an effective war.

And that's where I stopped reading. All of their calculations are off, being that the common denominator was dynamic and built on false pretenses.
 
2022-10-04 3:55:24 PM  
I wonder if any of those smart people ever actually been anywhere near a combat zone...?
 
2022-10-04 4:00:08 PM  

Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.


Are we sure his nukes work? They have a relatively short shelf life. That's why PANTEX exists here in the us.
 
2022-10-04 4:00:37 PM  
I recommend a book I just finished reading again on this the topic of how wars end: Every War Must End
 
2022-10-04 4:01:42 PM  

ProbablyDrunk: "In recent years, a small group of scholars has focussed on war-termination theory.", yet none considered the fact that Russia didn't have nearly the stockpile of munitions and weaponry or an infantry to actually wage an effective war.

And that's where I stopped reading. All of their calculations are off, being that the common denominator was dynamic and built on false pretenses.


So you subscribe to chaos theory.  As long as an irrational crazy person is the aggressor and has the upper hand, it's impossibly to guess the outcome.
 
2022-10-04 4:01:49 PM  
With great victory?
 
2022-10-04 4:04:47 PM  

Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-10-04 4:05:36 PM  

Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.


I think there's a non-zero chance of Ukraine taking out the Kerch Strait bridge and trying to take back Crimean. I think that's when the big booms happen.
 
2022-10-04 4:07:29 PM  
The mistake is assuming that Putin is any more of a deluded nationalist than any of the people in a position to potentially replace him.  God help us all if say, Dugin winds up at the top of the heap, or they pull an Orthodox version of the Iranian revolution and make Patriarch Kirill Supreme Leader.
 
2022-10-04 4:13:28 PM  
Did any of these "scholars" predict that a bunch of mud farmers would turn the second most powerful military(?) in the world into the second most powerful military in Ukraine? Because if not I don't really care what they think if we're being honest.
 
2022-10-04 4:13:31 PM  

Metastatic Capricorn: Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.

I think there's a non-zero chance of Ukraine taking out the Kerch Strait bridge and trying to take back Crimean. I think that's when the big booms happen.


I think that if the GOP doesn't retake control of Congress, Putin will end the war and recall all his troops.
 
2022-10-04 4:13:32 PM  

Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.


As someone else noted, all of the people most likely to take over are also super-nationalist who wholeheartedly believe in this war. In fact, part of the reason for the recent escalation is mollify internal criticism that they're losing the war. There's no robust, opposition party that could take power if Putin were to disappear for some reason.
 
2022-10-04 4:15:12 PM  

thornhill: Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.

As someone else noted, all of the people most likely to take over are also super-nationalist who wholeheartedly believe in this war. In fact, part of the reason for the recent escalation is mollify internal criticism that they're losing the war. There's no robust, opposition party that could take power if Putin were to disappear for some reason.


I think Putin is the only thing holding the Russian government together.
Once he's gone, a lot of the old guard will either flee the country or get killed in what comes next.
 
2022-10-04 4:17:50 PM  

Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.


I've been assured Russian nukes are nothing to worry about. Most of them won't explode, and the ones that do will be easy to get over.
 
2022-10-04 4:19:50 PM  

Rucker10: Did any of these "scholars" predict that a bunch of mud farmers would turn the second most powerful military(?) in the world into the second most powerful military in Ukraine? Because if not I don't really care what they think if we're being honest.


I'm sure Ukrainians love being called "mud farmers" and by scholars I assume you mean the Joint Chiefs of Staff?
 
2022-10-04 4:21:04 PM  

Tyrone Slothrop: Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.

I've been assured Russian nukes are nothing to worry about. Most of them won't explode, and the ones that do will be easy to get over.


Nuke weapons will provoke a NATO response. Blowing up nuclear power plants is more likely
 
2022-10-04 4:22:42 PM  
Could Putin be convinced to accept asylum somewhere? It seems like one of the very few ways this war could end without a catastrophic increase in death and destruction.

The scary thing in this is it sounds like Putin isn't the most insane person with political power in Moscow, that Putin isn't the biggest war-hawk.
 
2022-10-04 4:23:20 PM  
So, Russian lines keep collapsing, Putin sets off a mini-nuke, the US Navy sinks the Russian Black Sea fleet....then what? The real fighting starts?

Damn.
 
2022-10-04 4:25:22 PM  

RasIanI: So, Russian lines keep collapsing, Putin sets off a mini-nuke, the US Navy sinks the Russian Black Sea fleet....then what? The real fighting starts?

Damn.


Putin isn't going to nuke anything or anyone. He's gonna just keep sending cannon fodder into the war zone and hope the Ukrainians hiat their kill bot limit and shut down.
 
2022-10-04 4:26:20 PM  

Weaver95: RasIanI: So, Russian lines keep collapsing, Putin sets off a mini-nuke, the US Navy sinks the Russian Black Sea fleet....then what? The real fighting starts?

Damn.

Putin isn't going to nuke anything or anyone. He's gonna just keep sending cannon fodder into the war zone and hope the Ukrainians hiat their kill bot limit and shut down.


I legit hope you're right.
 
2022-10-04 4:26:36 PM  

Weaver95: Metastatic Capricorn: Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.

I think there's a non-zero chance of Ukraine taking out the Kerch Strait bridge and trying to take back Crimean. I think that's when the big booms happen.

I think that if the GOP doesn't retake control of Congress, Putin will end the war and recall all his troops.


That doesn't mean Ukraine wouldn't attempt to grab back Crimea, with Putin responding by turning the Perekop Wall into the Perekop radiation barrier.
 
2022-10-04 4:27:30 PM  
UCIA - Unexpected Canadians In Article.
 
2022-10-04 4:28:00 PM  

whither_apophis: Tyrone Slothrop: Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.

I've been assured Russian nukes are nothing to worry about. Most of them won't explode, and the ones that do will be easy to get over.

Nuke weapons will provoke a NATO response. Blowing up nuclear power plants is more likely


Sounds like that would create a need for NATO to set a team to dig the hundreds of square miles of land, load it up, and dump it in Siberia.
 
2022-10-04 4:28:49 PM  

Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.


No.  Russia will NOT use nukes if they are pushed out of Ukraine UNLESS NATO troops are rolled up to the Russian borders proper, or the Russian state is on verge of collapse.   In either case they have nothing to lose.  The Wolfwitz Doctrine which guides US foreign policy demands the dismemberment of Russia.   The question is:  Will the US carry through?

As for Putin, he can order a nuke strike in Ukraine, but his generals will not follow orders unless there are serious threats to Russia itself (see above).   If Putin orders a nuke strike to save his bungled Ukraine operation, he'll only be ordering his own removal.
 
2022-10-04 4:29:54 PM  
Try as they might, people will find a way to masturbate about anything.

Assumptions about war have always been wrong. (see US invasions of Vietnam, Iraq)

I've seen other analysis that posits Putin's only way out, a way to save face for losing this war is to draw the US in (by using a nuke) and then retreating with the claim that he's not retreating from Ukraine, but the West ("the aggressor")

Let's get to that point soon.
It won't be WWIII
If it does, big deal, we're a farking failed species anyway.
 
2022-10-04 4:31:24 PM  

Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.


"Russia had already been forced to reduce the original solid-fuel ICBMs/SLBMs production plans to less than one half of the intended capacity for ICBMs and by one third for SLBMs, regardless of the fact that the plans complied with SORT ceilings.  Such a decision was inevitable: there are fifty critically important materials required for the Russian solid-fuel rockets production technology which are currently absent in the country. Hence, the Russian leadership is already beset by problems in finding ways to increase strategic forces levels - both in terms of delivery means and the deployed state-of-the-art warheads - and the prospect of not being able to deploy the necessary force level remains quite serious."

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/why-did-russia-opt-liquid-fuel-its-next-generation-icbms
 
2022-10-04 4:32:51 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size

That's a stupid question.
 
2022-10-04 4:34:06 PM  
Oh good. Something entirely outside of my control that I get to be anxious about.
 
2022-10-04 4:34:12 PM  

ProbablyDrunk: All of their calculations are off, being that the common denominator was dynamic and built on false pretenses.


Premises. False premises.
 
2022-10-04 4:35:06 PM  

JessieL: This essay makes a really compelling case for taking out Putin directly, without ever even suggesting it as an option.


I recently read an article about Putin and his inner circle / how he keeps control. Basically, if that article was to be believed, he maintained his power by making sure their wasn't really a solid #2 below him. Basically the idea being that nobody would oppose/attempt to overthrow him because there were 2-3 others at the same level ready to oppose such a move, not out of loyalty to Putin necessarily but out of their own interests in gaining power. When Putin does have to tap someone for ceremony reasons he taps the least liked among the group. Basically he keeps all the rabble under him at each other's throats so he can surf above it all as they scramble to buy his favor in an attempt to move up or undermine their rivals.

The same article was speculating that should he pass due to his known health issues, that the Russian state would quickly devolve into a giant power struggle with huge unknowns about who various factions within the government or military would ultimately support and was generally expected that it would not consolidate very quickly and potentially result in a military coup given the known levels of corruption.

Of course this was about a year or so ago, well before the Ukraine war was started. Frankly I have no idea if Putin disappearing would ultimately be a good or bad thing at this point. He's clearly not stable but I also don't trust his successor to be any more stable. At best you'd see Russian forces pull back as they deal with internal conflicts. At worse they start firing nukes quickly and rapidly in an attempt to solidify their power and build their image as a tough man.

Ether way, expect a shiat show and to be worrying about who the fark has control over Russian nukes for a long time.
 
2022-10-04 4:35:36 PM  

Metastatic Capricorn: Weaver95: Metastatic Capricorn: Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.

I think there's a non-zero chance of Ukraine taking out the Kerch Strait bridge and trying to take back Crimean. I think that's when the big booms happen.

I think that if the GOP doesn't retake control of Congress, Putin will end the war and recall all his troops.

That doesn't mean Ukraine wouldn't attempt to grab back Crimea, with Putin responding by turning the Perekop Wall into the Perekop radiation barrier.


If the Russians keep retreating like this, Putin could lose his entire invasion by Nov 1st.
He's really not doing well. Russian forces aren't even close to ready for a winter war.
 
2022-10-04 4:35:58 PM  
I think those were very good metaphors Sub.
 
2022-10-04 4:37:24 PM  

Metastatic Capricorn: Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.

I think there's a non-zero chance of Ukraine taking out the Kerch Strait bridge and trying to take back Crimean. I think that's when the big booms happen.


The average Russians are very pissed at Putin and Co.   The Russian population were assured this 'Special Operation' would be a cakewalk.  If the Ukrainians attack into Russia, or territory the Russian population perceives as being historically Russian, like the Crimea, the mood in Russia may change drastically.  It's the main reason why the Ukrainian command has been very careful not to cross the border into Russia itself.  They know that popular opinion in Russia is against Putin.....so far.
 
2022-10-04 4:41:34 PM  

houginator: The mistake is assuming that Putin is any more of a deluded nationalist than any of the people in a position to potentially replace him.  God help us all if say, Dugin winds up at the top of the heap, or they pull an Orthodox version of the Iranian revolution and make Patriarch Kirill Supreme Leader.


In the short term, someone other than Putin can back down from Ukraine and blame it on Putin in order to focus on consolidating power internally.

In the long term, I agree with you. The new boss would probably be the same as the old. The odds of getting a Juan Carlos I equivalent (someone who lied their ass off about supporting fascism to become heir and immediately implemented democracy after taking power) is pretty damned slim.
 
2022-10-04 4:43:27 PM  

FlashHarry: Well, that was a

sobering read.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-10-04 4:43:38 PM  
Tyrone Slothrop:

Only takes one
 
2022-10-04 4:44:27 PM  

houginator: The mistake is assuming that Putin is any more of a deluded nationalist than any of the people in a position to potentially replace him.  God help us all if say, Dugin winds up at the top of the heap, or they pull an Orthodox version of the Iranian revolution and make Patriarch Kirill Supreme Leader.


This point can't be stressed enough. The next Russian leader is going to be pretty close to past Russian leaders.  There isn't some kindly Bernie Sanders type just waiting to lead the nation to a peaceful and prosperous future.
 
2022-10-04 4:44:49 PM  
Wow, I hope Bush and Obama "feel seen" as hte kids say these days:

FTA:The trouble, Goemans found, lay with the leaders who were neither democrats nor dictators: because they were repressive, they often met with bad ends, but because they were not repressive enough, they had to think about public opinion and whether it was turning on them. These leaders, Goemans found, would be tempted to "gamble for resurrection," to continue prosecuting the war,

The lack of democracy in the USA, as evidenced by exactly this problem, is a hot topic for researchers like Judith Buter in her very-readable, short scholarly books, Precarious Life(2006), Frames of War: When Is Life Grievable? (2016),The Force of Non-Violence(2021 - n.b. the force of non-violence in the USA is that it is the framework for democracy, whereas continuing the War on Terror was definitely not democracy). Obviously that crusty toad Chomsky is all over this idea in interviews like the collected ones on the book Power Systems (2013) proving even crusty toads can be wise sometimes. I think there are some passages in Hannah Arendt's Between Past and Future that help explain what ordinary people do in Western democracies, that TFA kind of elides. But Ukraine is a Western democracy, at least insofar as Zelensky's Servant of the People is a political philosophy manuscript, so we should think about what could go wrong if he was followed by an oligarch family like the Bushes.
 
2022-10-04 4:47:18 PM  

keldaria: I recently read an article about Putin and his inner circle / how he keeps control. Basically, if that article was to be believed, he maintained his power by making sure their wasn't really a solid #2 below him. Basically the idea being that nobody would oppose/attempt to overthrow him


Ah, the good-old Nancy Pelosi gambit!

[runs away]
 
2022-10-04 4:52:13 PM  
Russia wins this war by mobilizing 1.2 million unhealthy, untrained men. The Ukrainians will be overwhelmed by POWs  and forced to surrender.
 
2022-10-04 4:53:49 PM  

houginator: The mistake is assuming that Putin is any more of a deluded nationalist than any of the people in a position to potentially replace him.  God help us all if say, Dugin winds up at the top of the heap, or they pull an Orthodox version of the Iranian revolution and make Patriarch Kirill Supreme Leader.


That's the scary part.  It's entirely possible, if not likely, that among the power players in the Russian government, Putin isn't even a top five monster
 
2022-10-04 5:02:46 PM  

funmonger: Why do smart people think Russians are suicidal?

Oh right. Clicks.


Events spiraling out of control is a real thing, and has happened many times in the past. Just not yet with nuclear weapons. Yet.
 
2022-10-04 5:06:42 PM  
tl;dr: Partially-autocratic assholes who don't have complete power to suppress dissent are likely to continue to prosecute a war long after anyone else would have walked away because they know if they are seen to fail, they are likely to be removed from power and terminated.

Because Russian Hitler falls under this class, I believe that TFA is correct that we (all of us) are in increasing danger as time goes by because Russia's military collapse is not going to be reversed or even staunched by any actions that Russia could plausibly take. And as things continue to go from bad to worse, the risk that Russian Hitler will use a nuclear weapon grows.

And if he does, that's where it gets scary, because then either the whole world tells him to get his farking shine box while every Russian nuclear asset is sunk or blown up, or we submit to an insane nuclear-armed terrorist's blackmail which is (as many have discussed at length) "just surrendering with more steps."

It would be far worse militarily for Russia than the west, but because the west isn't ruled by a gangster syndicate, we have so, SO much more to lose on the civil front.
 
2022-10-04 5:10:32 PM  
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2022-10-04 5:16:11 PM  
Oh, sure, submitter...you and your Canadian girlfriend will get to enjoy a rustic Vermont holiday. The rest of us will be fighting pizza rat for crusts!
 
2022-10-04 5:16:52 PM  

thornhill: Jake Havechek: Take out Putin or prepare yourself for mushroom clouds.

As someone else noted, all of the people most likely to take over are also super-nationalist who wholeheartedly believe in this war. In fact, part of the reason for the recent escalation is mollify internal criticism that they're losing the war. There's no robust, opposition party that could take power if Putin were to disappear for some reason.


Nobody else knows how to run the government. Even when Medvedev was President it was all a sham. Hell Putin might DIE with the launch codes, he's that paranoid.
 
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