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(YouTube)   Up close look at HIMARS in action in Ukraine. "The HIMARS are hitting everything at this point"   (youtube.com) divider line
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4372 clicks; posted to Main » on 03 Oct 2022 at 3:30 AM (7 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-10-03 2:54:31 AM  
Just watched a Twiteo posted of a russian news commentator complaining about how the US and European countries SAY they're sending materiel to Ukraine, but for some reason the Ukrainians already seem to have it.
...
Rule number one in wartime: Never let your enemy know your true strength.

There are far more than sixteen HIMARS in Ukraine. And that makes me hopeful.
 
2022-10-03 3:39:32 AM  
Oh hi, Mars!
 
2022-10-03 3:48:58 AM  
Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?
 
2022-10-03 3:50:22 AM  

C18H27NO3: Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?


I was told there would be no math.
 
2022-10-03 3:52:23 AM  

C18H27NO3: Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?


30 seconds for ATACMS
 
2022-10-03 3:55:24 AM  
I didn't turn the sound up, but I feel like I just watched a commercial for a HIMARs.  I want one now anyway.
 
2022-10-03 3:56:55 AM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: C18H27NO3: Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?

30 seconds for ATACMS


*sigh* Sorry, more like 90 seconds, plus some to account for not going max velocity the whole way. So, a couple minutes?

/see, this is why I shouldn't math
 
2022-10-03 3:57:53 AM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: C18H27NO3: Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?

30 seconds for ATACMS


Uh, they're fast, but they're not 1.6 miles/second fast. Ballpark, that's about Mach 9.

A quick googling says they do about 1 kps, or Mach 3, or 90ish seconds to 50 miles.
 
2022-10-03 4:08:19 AM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: C18H27NO3: Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?

30 seconds for ATACMS


From what I can see, the missiles travel at around 3,000 km/h.  50mi is around 80km.  80km/3000km/h = 0.02666 hours * 60 minutes per hour = 1.6 minutes, so somewhere roundabout 1 minute 36 seconds to go 50 miles.
 
2022-10-03 4:09:52 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-10-03 4:12:51 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size


This may go down as the funniest war in history.
 
2022-10-03 4:14:44 AM  
I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.
 
2022-10-03 4:16:03 AM  

C18H27NO3: Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?


The rest of your life.
 
2022-10-03 4:20:22 AM  

Redh8t: Just watched a Twiteo posted of a russian news commentator complaining about how the US and European countries SAY they're sending materiel to Ukraine, but for some reason the Ukrainians already seem to have it.
...
Rule number one in wartime: Never let your enemy know your true strength.

There are far more than sixteen HIMARS in Ukraine. And that makes me hopeful.


I mean, it seems like basic OPSEC to me: don't report that you're giving UA X number of Y weapon until they're delivered and out in the field.  Otherwise you expose them to risk while they're waiting at some logistical node or another, like a depot or a railhead or whatever.
 
2022-10-03 4:20:22 AM  

studebaker hoch: I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.


It does when it is the target.  Every time.
 
2022-10-03 4:23:01 AM  

studebaker hoch: I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.


As Ukraine's use of former Soviet equipment demonstrates:

It might well be able to, if the operators were sober and trained or if the missiles had been calibrated at any point in the last 20 years.

A lot of Soviet designs were quite good (within the envelope of what their technology could accomplish), but nothing more sophisticated than a rock is going to work right when it's built and run by a military that's been corrupted by Putinism for 20 years.
 
2022-10-03 4:29:20 AM  

erik-k: studebaker hoch: I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.

As Ukraine's use of former Soviet equipment demonstrates:

It might well be able to, if the operators were sober and trained or if the missiles had been calibrated at any point in the last 20 years.

A lot of Soviet designs were quite good (within the envelope of what their technology could accomplish), but nothing more sophisticated than a rock is going to work right when it's built and run by a military that's been corrupted by Putinism for 20 years.


But it'll run great!
 
2022-10-03 4:30:21 AM  

Some Junkie Cosmonaut: erik-k: studebaker hoch: I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.

As Ukraine's use of former Soviet equipment demonstrates:

It might well be able to, if the operators were sober and trained or if the missiles had been calibrated at any point in the last 20 years.

A lot of Soviet designs were quite good (within the envelope of what their technology could accomplish), but nothing more sophisticated than a rock is going to work right when it's built and run by a military that's been corrupted by Putinism for 20 years.

But it'll run great!


Put it in H!
 
2022-10-03 4:41:31 AM  
I CAN GIVE YOU HIMARS super hit by NAFO
Youtube h5YieXnFLhA
 
2022-10-03 4:47:29 AM  

studebaker hoch: [Fark user image 652x459]

This may go down as the funniest war in history.


Nah, people died. So the Three Hundred and Thirty Five Years War between the Netherlands and Scilly would still have to be funniest.
 
2022-10-03 4:53:22 AM  

NobleHam: studebaker hoch: [Fark user image 652x459]

This may go down as the funniest war in history.

Nah, people died. So the Three Hundred and Thirty Five Years War between the Netherlands and Scilly would still have to be funniest.


Most "I'll-advised war" since at least 2003.

I mean people were practically screaming.., "you're going to regret this!"

I guess Vlad never played Sim City as a kid.
 
2022-10-03 5:10:40 AM  

Redh8t: Just watched a Twiteo posted of a russian news commentator complaining about how the US and European countries SAY they're sending materiel to Ukraine, but for some reason the Ukrainians already seem to have it.
...
Rule number one in wartime: Never let your enemy know your true strength.

There are far more than sixteen HIMARS in Ukraine. And that makes me hopeful.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-10-03 5:13:58 AM  

studebaker hoch: Redh8t: Just watched a Twiteo posted of a russian news commentator complaining about how the US and European countries SAY they're sending materiel to Ukraine, but for some reason the Ukrainians already seem to have it.
...
Rule number one in wartime: Never let your enemy know your true strength.

There are far more than sixteen HIMARS in Ukraine. And that makes me hopeful.
[Fark user image 733x675]


I'm pretty sure they've drawn that conclusion already
 
2022-10-03 5:18:35 AM  

studebaker hoch: I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.


Look at Israel's rocket interceptions for some background on the issue. Israel has some excellent anti-rocket interception capability with Iron Dome but even then, they choose not to intercept every rocket. Why? Because it's freaking expensive, and lighting up a radar paints a giant target on your anti-air system.

Each Iron Dome intercept was estimated to cost $100,000-150,000. They were intercepting $800 rockets. If Russia only had to deal with HIMARS rockets then they might choose to engage more with their S-300 or S-400 systems, but they have much bigger problems. Ukraine is still able to mobilize air assets, and Ukraine also has anti-radiation missiles. If Russia uses their anti-air systems too much then Ukraine could bait them with a HIMARS launch followed by an anti-radiation missile. This would be disastrous for Russia, as a S-400 system costs in the range of $300-500 million. Russia also has limited numbers of interceptor missiles, and using them against every HIMARS launch would deplete their reserves for use against aircraft.

The Russians have plenty of men, but they don't have the equipment to go against the combined arms of the West being fed into Ukraine. The US has spent over $62 billion on Ukraine this year alone, which is almost the entire annual military budget of Russia ($65 billion in 2021). This doesn't count the use of shared assets, like spy satellites or SIGINT aircraft. Those intelligence assets are one of the unsung heroes of this conflict, because real-time intel gives those HIMARS systems the priority targets that they need to inflict maximum damage behind Russian lines.

Despite all of Russia's strategic blunders, they are still a potent force. There's a lot of optimism about Ukraine, but the end result of this conflict is going to be hundreds of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians dead, including civilians. The only way for Ukraine to come out of this ahead is for NATO to admit Ukraine and for a massive rebuilding plan for the country. The reason why we didn't have WWIII right after WWII was because the people in charge realized that civil infrastructure and education were far better than military reparations. Gaining Germany and Japan as allies was far better in the long run. We need to do the same with Ukraine. Ukraine WILL win, but we need to be prepared to make long-term investments in our future ally.
 
2022-10-03 5:29:02 AM  

untoldforce: Look at Israel's rocket interceptions for some background on the issue. Israel has some excellent anti-rocket interception capability with Iron Dome but even then, they choose not to intercept every rocket. Why? Because it's freaking expensive, and lighting up a radar paints a giant target on your anti-air system.


Iron Dome plots the trajectories of incoming rounds and doesn't engage them if they aren't going to hit anything important.  Which is most of the time.

I agree with the rest of your post.

/ Active radar may as well be a giant FREE TACO sign.
 
2022-10-03 5:34:13 AM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: C18H27NO3: Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?

30 seconds for ATACMS


You mean gmlrs I think. For atacms I would guess about 3 minutes at max range.
 
2022-10-03 5:36:17 AM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: C18H27NO3: Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?

30 seconds for ATACMS

*sigh* Sorry, more like 90 seconds, plus some to account for not going max velocity the whole way. So, a couple minutes?

/see, this is why I shouldn't math


Yeah, it's a parabolic path which is more important. You can probably neglect acceleration to obtain a good approximation.
 
2022-10-03 5:38:48 AM  

LrdPhoenix: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: C18H27NO3: Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?

30 seconds for ATACMS

From what I can see, the missiles travel at around 3,000 km/h.  50mi is around 80km.  80km/3000km/h = 0.02666 hours * 60 minutes per hour = 1.6 minutes, so somewhere roundabout 1 minute 36 seconds to go 50 miles.


According to the Google's, it is roughly 2.5 minutes to max range.
 
2022-10-03 6:05:56 AM  

Some Junkie Cosmonaut: erik-k: studebaker hoch: I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.

As Ukraine's use of former Soviet equipment demonstrates:

It might well be able to, if the operators were sober and trained or if the missiles had been calibrated at any point in the last 20 years.

A lot of Soviet designs were quite good (within the envelope of what their technology could accomplish), but nothing more sophisticated than a rock is going to work right when it's built and run by a military that's been corrupted by Putinism for 20 years.

But it'll run great!


Even assuming the SAM operators were both diligent and well-trained, GLMRs would be hard to intercept. They had a fairly small radar return, travel very damned fast, and generally stay closer to the ground than other SSMs. All of this makes the GLMR hard to detect, and it is likely to be too late to respond by the time the missiles presents enough of a radar return to activate the SAM systems.

There are ways around this, but those require competence, diligence, and (usually) airborne radar relatively close to the SAM site. You could substitute setting up multiple radars around the defended area, which would increase the chances of getting a return in time to do some good, but Ukraine has HARMs now. Any active emitters near a target are likely to be destroyed in short order, leaving the SAM basically blind to GLMRs again.

Well-trained operators with properly-maintained equipment would have a better chance to intercept GLMRs, but russia doesn't seem to have any of those. The lack of trained manpower is likely to get worse as any trained crew-orcs are getting sunflowered by AGM-88 strikes.
 
2022-10-03 6:33:28 AM  

Wenchmaster: Some Junkie Cosmonaut: erik-k: studebaker hoch: I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.

As Ukraine's use of former Soviet equipment demonstrates:

It might well be able to, if the operators were sober and trained or if the missiles had been calibrated at any point in the last 20 years.

A lot of Soviet designs were quite good (within the envelope of what their technology could accomplish), but nothing more sophisticated than a rock is going to work right when it's built and run by a military that's been corrupted by Putinism for 20 years.

But it'll run great!

Even assuming the SAM operators were both diligent and well-trained, GLMRs would be hard to intercept. They had a fairly small radar return, travel very damned fast, and generally stay closer to the ground than other SSMs. All of this makes the GLMR hard to detect, and it is likely to be too late to respond by the time the missiles presents enough of a radar return to activate the SAM systems.

There are ways around this, but those require competence, diligence, and (usually) airborne radar relatively close to the SAM site. You could substitute setting up multiple radars around the defended area, which would increase the chances of getting a return in time to do some good, but Ukraine has HARMs now. Any active emitters near a target are likely to be destroyed in short order, leaving the SAM basically blind to GLMRs again.

Well-trained operators with properly-maintained equipment would have a better chance to intercept GLMRs, but russia doesn't seem to have any of those. The lack of trained manpower is likely to get worse as any trained crew-orcs are getting sunflowered by AGM-88 strikes.


Well yes, but I was just calling them out on running you see ;p
 
2022-10-03 6:34:08 AM  

NewportBarGuy: I guess Vlad never played Sim City as a kid.


If he did, he typed in 'porntipsguzzardo'  multiple times and didn't understand why people thought it was challenging
 
2022-10-03 6:47:17 AM  

NobleHam: studebaker hoch: [Fark user image 652x459]

This may go down as the funniest war in history.

Nah, people died. So the Three Hundred and Thirty Five Years War between the Netherlands and Scilly would still have to be funniest.


Surely the "Japanese Fart War" is a contender?

www.mic.com/articles/145679/he-gassen-japanese-fart-battle-meaning-origin-artist/amp
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-10-03 6:52:35 AM  
If the Republicans win Congress, it will be the Russians using HIMARS.
 
2022-10-03 6:58:58 AM  

Wenchmaster: Some Junkie Cosmonaut: erik-k: studebaker hoch: I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.

As Ukraine's use of former Soviet equipment demonstrates:

It might well be able to, if the operators were sober and trained or if the missiles had been calibrated at any point in the last 20 years.

A lot of Soviet designs were quite good (within the envelope of what their technology could accomplish), but nothing more sophisticated than a rock is going to work right when it's built and run by a military that's been corrupted by Putinism for 20 years.

But it'll run great!

Even assuming the SAM operators were both diligent and well-trained, GLMRs would be hard to intercept. They had a fairly small radar return, travel very damned fast, and generally stay closer to the ground than other SSMs. All of this makes the GLMR hard to detect, and it is likely to be too late to respond by the time the missiles presents enough of a radar return to activate the SAM systems.

There are ways around this, but those require competence, diligence, and (usually) airborne radar relatively close to the SAM site. You could substitute setting up multiple radars around the defended area, which would increase the chances of getting a return in time to do some good, but Ukraine has HARMs now. Any active emitters near a target are likely to be destroyed in short order, leaving the SAM basically blind to GLMRs again.

Well-trained operators with properly-maintained equipment would have a better chance to intercept GLMRs, but russia doesn't seem to have any of those. The lack of trained manpower is likely to get worse as any trained crew-orcs are getting sunflowered by AGM-88 strikes.


They e also converted a lot of their AA to ground attack mode. 🤦‍♂
 
2022-10-03 7:02:39 AM  

C18H27NO3: Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?


If you are firing it, it takes a few minutes.  If you are the target, it takes the rest of your life.
 
2022-10-03 7:57:29 AM  

untoldforce: studebaker hoch: I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.

The reason why we didn't have WWIII right after WWII was because the people in charge realized that civil infrastructure and education were far better than military reparations. Gaining Germany and Japan as allies was far better in the long run. We need to do the same with Ukraine. Ukraine WILL win, but we need to be prepared to make long-term investments in our future ally.


But but but... Fark tells me we are already in WWIII. ;-)
 
2022-10-03 7:59:46 AM  

Redh8t: Just watched a Twiteo posted of a russian news commentator complaining about how the US and European countries SAY they're sending materiel to Ukraine, but for some reason the Ukrainians already seem to have it.


ROFL. It's been like that since day 1.

Biden: "We're sending Ukraine weapon XYZ"

A few days later Twitter has footage of Ukraine using weapon XYZ 2 weeks prior.
 
2022-10-03 8:09:37 AM  

hotmoonsauce: untoldforce: studebaker hoch: I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.

The reason why we didn't have WWIII right after WWII was because the people in charge realized that civil infrastructure and education were far better than military reparations. Gaining Germany and Japan as allies was far better in the long run. We need to do the same with Ukraine. Ukraine WILL win, but we need to be prepared to make long-term investments in our future ally.

But but but... Fark tells me we are already in WWIII. ;-)


It's tongue in cheek.
 
2022-10-03 8:14:59 AM  

C18H27NO3: Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?


However long it is, one should probably skedaddle from counter-fire before then. Modern counter-artillery systems can calculate source from the trajectory of incoming fire. So "shoot-and-scoot" is the order of the day.

When "shoot-and-scoot" becomes the norm, look for the following development: AI systems that can (from multiple inputs such as road and terrain maps, weather data, and drone and satellite video) predict where the "scooting" will take place to.
 
2022-10-03 8:17:58 AM  

studebaker hoch: I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.


The S-300/400 systems were designed to intercept fighter jets and cruise missiles. HIMARS rockets travel at fighter jet speeds but have the trajectory and flight times of artillery rounds. From a targeting perspective this makes them very different from the things the S-300/400 were designed to intercept. As a result the S-300/400 are pretty shiat at shooting down HIMARS rockets.

This is something that could be fixed given some software updates and training. But that sort of thing takes a while and when the rockets (HIMARS and HARM) are already landing on your S-300/400 radar antennas in the middle of a war its a bit late for firmware updates and training sessions.
 
2022-10-03 8:42:52 AM  

erik-k: studebaker hoch: I'm surprised the S-300/400 can't intercept HIMARS rounds.

As Ukraine's use of former Soviet equipment demonstrates:

It might well be able to, if the operators were sober and trained or if the missiles had been calibrated at any point in the last 20 years.

A lot of Soviet designs were quite good (within the envelope of what their technology could accomplish), but nothing more sophisticated than a rock is going to work right when it's built and run by a military that's been corrupted by Putinism for 20 years.


Would you really want to shoot an s400 missile at a HIMAR missile?  So far as modern missiles and military equipment go... HIMARS are surprisingly cheap to build and operate.  Each s400 system costs about 400 million.  Way cheaper than much of the stuff the HIMAR is blowing up.

Russia does not have nearly as deep of pockets as the US does and you know they have a limited supply of s400's.  What happens if they run out and we start giving Ukraine some of the F-15/16's we're currently mothballing?  One of the main reasons we haven't done that in the past is that they're more familiar with Russian tech, but they've shown that they're adept at learning to use Western military tech and we keep ramping up the complexity of the systems we're giving them.
 
2022-10-03 8:44:34 AM  

antillie: The S-300/400 systems were designed to intercept fighter jets and cruise missiles.


There was a good video about talking about how interception works.  It started out that the missile doesn't know where it is, it only knows where it was and it doesn't know where the target is either but only where it was.  The processing is based on old info where the computer is far behind what the sensor just told the computer since things are moving at mach speeds. Throw in old slow computers and it is a wonder the systems ever hit a target.
 
2022-10-03 8:57:56 AM  
i.kym-cdn.comView Full Size
 
2022-10-03 9:05:06 AM  

DON.MAC: antillie: The S-300/400 systems were designed to intercept fighter jets and cruise missiles.

There was a good video about talking about how interception works.  It started out that the missile doesn't know where it is, it only knows where it was and it doesn't know where the target is either but only where it was.  The processing is based on old info where the computer is far behind what the sensor just told the computer since things are moving at mach speeds. Throw in old slow computers and it is a wonder the systems ever hit a target.


Also, they're sanctioned by basically every country that makes good modern microprocessors, and Russia is not known for that.  So even if they wanted to upgrade their current equipment it's going to be with modern Chinese microprocessors at best... and there you have the issue of how much you trust them to not just be spying on you.
 
2022-10-03 9:05:35 AM  

electricjebus: So far as modern missiles and military equipment go... HIMARS are surprisingly cheap to build and operate.


Each one, including its rockets, costs about $6.5 million, which is insanely cheap. We should be flooding the country with them.
 
2022-10-03 9:08:35 AM  
This whole war has been a godsend to the US military. For 70 years, they've had to run simulations or wargames in an effort to guesstimate how well western forces would do against the russian bear. Now they can test their weapon systems against the real thing, get realtime feedback, and modify the systems as needed. With the bonus feature of bleeding the russian army white.
 
2022-10-03 9:16:48 AM  

Dinki: This whole war has been a godsend to the US military. For 70 years, they've had to run simulations or wargames in an effort to guesstimate how well western forces would do against the russian bear. Now they can test their weapon systems against the real thing, get realtime feedback, and modify the systems as needed. With the bonus feature of bleeding the russian army white.


Not to mention that pretty much every manufacturer who gets their stuff into Ukrainian hands is enjoying marketing on this level:
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-10-03 9:25:55 AM  

Dinki: This whole war has been a godsend to the US military. For 70 years, they've had to run simulations or wargames in an effort to guesstimate how well western forces would do against the russian bear. Now they can test their weapon systems against the real thing, get realtime feedback, and modify the systems as needed. With the bonus feature of bleeding the russian army white.


My thoughts exactly. And you know at Paris and Farnborough, they'll be touting the "real-world effectiveness" of these systems as they sell them to their various clients around the globe.
 
2022-10-03 9:31:48 AM  
I'm torn. On the one hand I wish our over-inflated massive military budget went to things like education and healthcare instead. On the other hand that same massive military budget is what's allowing us to send tons of arms to Ukraine and help them defend themselves.

Sigh. Fark the world for being so stupid and complicated. Jackasses like Putin are why we can't have nice things.
 
2022-10-03 9:37:37 AM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: C18H27NO3: Does anyone happen to know how long it takes from the moment you fire until it gets to its target if it were 50 miles away?

30 seconds for ATACMS


Biden should have said if you annex Ukraine we seend ATACMS, because at that point any Ukrainian target is in Russia according to your dumb ass.
 
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