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(The Drive)   You can probably stop panicking about global nuclear war   (thedrive.com) divider line
    More: News, Nuclear warfare, Nuclear weapon, World War II, Nuclear weapons, specter of nuclear war, Russia, Russia's recent announcement, direct nuclear threats  
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7424 clicks; posted to Main » and Politics » on 30 Sep 2022 at 3:02 PM (10 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-09-30 2:29:34 PM  
Pretty sure this is one of those "if he was gonna do it, he'd have done it already" situations

Putin's not in his right mind and all of this is most likely the result of the debilitating effects of a terminal disease, it's treatments, having nothing but a bunch of sycophantic yes-men to talk to, and an overblown sense of confidence due to getting away with so much heinous shiat for so long

Best thing would be for Putin to be taken out behind his Dacha and shot. It would be the most merciful thing for Ukraine, the Russians and Putin himself, finally freed from his misery
 
2022-09-30 2:42:46 PM  
These projections are based on rational thinking, which Putin is no longer capable of.
 
2022-09-30 2:43:29 PM  
Oh thank god. The academics are here to reassure me. I feel so much better.

Everything fine! Go about your business!
 
Juc [TotalFark]
2022-09-30 2:57:00 PM  

Jake Havechek: These projections are based on rational thinking, which Putin is no longer capable of.


the nuclear button isn't a literal button, the command to launch has to go through a number of people all of whom need to be completely irrational for them to launch something globally.
they might blow up some forest near lyman or something though, but they'd suffer a great deal from whatever the retaliation is to do that.

the ROI isn't there, ukraine doesn't even have a fleet where they could send a few ship killing nukes at.
 
2022-09-30 3:03:49 PM  
Maybe instead of global thermonuclear war, we could play a nice game of Chess?
 
2022-09-30 3:04:31 PM  
I suspect he already pushed the big red button & the shiat didnt work because it hasnt seen any maintenance since 1992.
 
2022-09-30 3:04:32 PM  
It probably won't happen - unless there's money to be made.  The problem is that it could get out of hand and inconvenience the wealthy.
 
2022-09-30 3:04:42 PM  
Any chance is too much of a chance.
 
2022-09-30 3:05:26 PM  

NewportBarGuy: Oh thank god. The academics are here to reassure me. I feel so much better.

Everything fine! Go about your business!


There's not much point worrying about it. There's exactly nothing you can do to change the possibility of a nuclear war, and there's next to nothing you can do to prepare for one.
 
2022-09-30 3:07:02 PM  
Listen here, subby:

1. You don't know my level of anxiety.
2. I don't trust anyone named "Tyler". Just another privileged asshole name given to privileged assholes.
3. Yelling people to calm down in any manner is the quickest was to enrage them and escalate the situation.
 
2022-09-30 3:07:15 PM  
Grew up in the '60s.

Been there, done that Subby.
 
2022-09-30 3:07:15 PM  
While I certainly hope they are right, a lot of these folks were the same people saying Putin would never invade Ukraine in the first place, because it would such a stupid thing to do.
 
2022-09-30 3:07:15 PM  
Someone needs to put a bullet in Putin's head. It will take some brave Russian who is going to give up his life for his country to murder Putin.
 
2022-09-30 3:07:31 PM  
The fear is what happens to the remaining weapons and fissile material when russia finally implodes. Kind of like that last time.
 
2022-09-30 3:07:50 PM  
If his grip on power is slipping, I could see him using nukes. With what kind of strange justifications he comes up with, it wouldn't shock me.

Juc: the command to launch has to go through a number of people all of whom need to be completely irrational for them to launch something globally.


I was actually thinking about the Bastille during the French revolution.

The commander had orders to blow it up if it was under threat. So he decided to do that. There is a famous scene from the film La Révolution française which show his own troops refusing to let the commander enter in the powder room to set it ablaze. The troops under his command knew that blowing it up would have led to mass-casualties of not just the rebels attacking the Bastille, but also those who lived around it.
 
2022-09-30 3:08:20 PM  

Juc: Jake Havechek: These projections are based on rational thinking, which Putin is no longer capable of.

the nuclear button isn't a literal button, the command to launch has to go through a number of people all of whom need to be completely irrational for them to launch something globally.
they might blow up some forest near lyman or something though, but they'd suffer a great deal from whatever the retaliation is to do that.

the ROI isn't there, ukraine doesn't even have a fleet where they could send a few ship killing nukes at.


This.

Also, if they couldn't find a reason to use nukes during the entirety of the cold war, they certainly won't find a reason now. It's not like they are worried about Ukraine invading them.

The most likely candidates to use nukes are either NK, Pakistan and India (on each other if anything), or Israel (if the entire middle east decides to team up on them). Just my 2 cents.
 
2022-09-30 3:08:43 PM  

RedfordRenegade: Maybe instead of global thermonuclear war, we could play a nice game of Chess?


....which reminds me, I need to go to Costco to pick up a pallet of AA batteries and 2 drums of water-based lubricant.
 
2022-09-30 3:11:01 PM  
We have all kinds of retaliatory shiat aimed at Russia.

If Vlad wanted to suicide, that would be the most epically unforgettable suicide in the past and future history of the planet.
 
2022-09-30 3:11:42 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-09-30 3:12:14 PM  
I never was panicking, but lordly, Yellow 3 got one hell of a workout this week.
 
2022-09-30 3:12:52 PM  

chewd: I suspect he already pushed the big red button & the shiat didnt work because it hasnt seen any maintenance since 1992.


this is the most likely scenario for a number of things in the former Soviet Union dating back to the 1970's.
 
2022-09-30 3:13:01 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-09-30 3:13:30 PM  
So, Professor, would you say it's time for everyone to panic?

Yes I would, Kent.
 
2022-09-30 3:13:32 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-09-30 3:13:47 PM  

The Exit Stencilist: Pretty sure this is one of those "if he was gonna do it, he'd have done it already" situations



I'm thinking more along the lines of "if he was able to do it..."
 
2022-09-30 3:13:55 PM  
I guarantee you that they are going through their nuclear arsenal and looking for the one nuke that isn't stuffed full of cardboard.

I think he'll do it.
 
2022-09-30 3:14:24 PM  
Anyone happy a car website did the research?  No investigative reporters needed here.
 
2022-09-30 3:14:34 PM  
Nuclear war happens I won't have to worry about...

* For profit healthcare.
* For profit education.
* Housing used as investment vehicles.
* Donald Trump getting off for his crimes.
* Global warming (at a slower pace but faster then normal, yeah we get incinerated right away but hey nuclear winter is a nice chill period!)
* Pollution... cause... radiation all over the place.
* No more school shootings.
* No more religious loony birds.
* No more telemarketers calling.

I mean.... damn... almost wish iat would happen.
 
2022-09-30 3:14:44 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size

10 to 20 million, tops!
 
2022-09-30 3:15:24 PM  

Nimbull: wish iat


Filter is crazy these days
 
2022-09-30 3:16:25 PM  

Thoreny: Nimbull: wish iat

Filter is crazy these days


No type-o cause I got excited at the thought of never getting a call from telemarketers ever again.
 
2022-09-30 3:17:03 PM  
I'm a Gen X kid. I've been expecting to die in a nuclear blast for the majority of my life. I'm actually feeling a fair bit of nostalgia over the threat of nuclear destruction.

WOLVERINES!!!!
 
2022-09-30 3:18:17 PM  
The fear that Putin was going to destroy the world with nuclear hellfire was always unsubstantiated, and unjustified, bullshiat.  The only people who hid behind it were cowards and people who were looking for any excuse they could grasp to justify their want to refuse aid to Ukraine.
 
2022-09-30 3:19:18 PM  
Putin, personally, I don't trust. I'd put some pretty good odds of everyone sane within five miles of him having a hidden knife on them at all times for him to fall on if he did give the order. People don't want to die.

One hopes for a revolution before it gets to the point he orders an nuke.
 
2022-09-30 3:19:55 PM  
Herman Kahn would've loved this.
 
2022-09-30 3:20:54 PM  

Nimbull: Nuclear war happens I won't have to worry about...

* For profit healthcare.
* For profit education.
* Housing used as investment vehicles.
* Donald Trump getting off for his crimes.
* Global warming (at a slower pace but faster then normal, yeah we get incinerated right away but hey nuclear winter is a nice chill period!)
* Pollution... cause... radiation all over the place.
* No more school shootings.
* No more religious loony birds.
* No more telemarketers calling.

I mean.... damn... almost wish iat would happen.


And you get mutant superpowers, and you get mutant superpowers, everyone gets mutant superpowers!
 
2022-09-30 3:21:31 PM  
From the experts in the article:I don't know and it depends. Demonstrative employment can yield different scenarios.

Well Hell, I could have told them that.
 
2022-09-30 3:22:57 PM  

Nimbull: Nuclear war happens I won't have to worry about...

* For profit healthcare.
* For profit education.
* Housing used as investment vehicles.
* Donald Trump getting off for his crimes.
* Global warming (at a slower pace but faster then normal, yeah we get incinerated right away but hey nuclear winter is a nice chill period!)
* Pollution... cause... radiation all over the place.
* No more school shootings.
* No more religious loony birds.
* No more telemarketers calling.

I mean.... damn... almost wish iat would happen.


The only downsides will either be being dead, or living in a world akin to The Walking Dead.

Either is a hard pass for me.

BTW, if we escape this, we will learn nothing from it.
 
2022-09-30 3:24:37 PM  
"You can probably stop panicking about global nuclear war"

ah, the plaintive sound of the "self-declared nuclear weapons expert" mating call, lo see how they flock
 
2022-09-30 3:25:02 PM  

AntonChigger: Juc: Jake Havechek: These projections are based on rational thinking, which Putin is no longer capable of.

the nuclear button isn't a literal button, the command to launch has to go through a number of people all of whom need to be completely irrational for them to launch something globally.
they might blow up some forest near lyman or something though, but they'd suffer a great deal from whatever the retaliation is to do that.

the ROI isn't there, ukraine doesn't even have a fleet where they could send a few ship killing nukes at.

This.

Also, if they couldn't find a reason to use nukes during the entirety of the cold war, they certainly won't find a reason now. It's not like they are worried about Ukraine invading them.

The most likely candidates to use nukes are either NK, Pakistan and India (on each other if anything), or Israel (if the entire middle east decides to team up on them). Just my 2 cents.


They kidnapped a couple million Ukrainians. Do you honestly think that the Ukrainians are going to stop at Russia's border when they haven't gotten those people back?
 
2022-09-30 3:27:32 PM  
There's just TONS of Eeyores round here who are POSITIVE the nukes will be launched. Any. Day. Now. I need to start marking them so I can gloat after Putin gets overthrown and dies.
 
2022-09-30 3:29:44 PM  
"Global nuclear war" is not the probable outcome here nor what is being worried about. There is no ambiguity what would happen if Russia wanted to play that game.

The issue is Russia considering using small "tactical" nuclear weapons, ie roughly Hiroshima sized, to wipe out Ukrainian  military, or cities and non-military citizens, maybe one city at a time to force capitulation. What does NATO/the West/everyone who isn't Russia do in this situation? Do we sit idly as hundreds of thousands are slaughtered because Ukraine didn't sign on a piece of parchment decades ago? Do we start conventionally attacking Russian forces everywhere outside Russia with the promise that any nuclear reprisal will be met by annihilation? This is brinksmanship at its "finest".

And comparisons with what the US did in WWII are ridiculous, of course. We know who attacked who ie started both conflicts.
 
2022-09-30 3:29:52 PM  

Glitchwerks: I guarantee you that they are going through their nuclear arsenal and looking for the one nuke that isn't stuffed full of cardboard.

I think he'll do it.


Unfortunately for the Russians, that one nuke has been stuffed full of used pinball machine parts instead of cardboard.
 
2022-09-30 3:30:37 PM  

The Exit Stencilist: Nimbull: Nuclear war happens I won't have to worry about...

* For profit healthcare.
* For profit education.
* Housing used as investment vehicles.
* Donald Trump getting off for his crimes.
* Global warming (at a slower pace but faster then normal, yeah we get incinerated right away but hey nuclear winter is a nice chill period!)
* Pollution... cause... radiation all over the place.
* No more school shootings.
* No more religious loony birds.
* No more telemarketers calling.

I mean.... damn... almost wish iat would happen.

And you get mutant superpowers, and you get mutant superpowers, everyone gets mutant superpowers!


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-09-30 3:31:49 PM  
Great_Milenko:
BTW, if we escape this, we will learn nothing from it.

What is anyone supposed to learn?  Don't allow dictatorships to form in nuclear armed countries? Do we immediately dog-pile North Korea?  Invade any country that becomes a dictatorship?  Let dictators do whatever they want to avoid a nuclear showdown?

Effective diplomacy requires both sides to be rational actors.  When one side is hell-bent to flip the table, there's nothing anyone can do about it short of war.
 
2022-09-30 3:31:57 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size


also

Watchmen 2009 Dr Manhattan screams "Leave Me Alone!" (Dr Manhattan TV Interview Scene)
Youtube HZl4kG3IAJo
 
2022-09-30 3:32:49 PM  
I wasn't panicking. I seriously doubt russia has many, if any, working warheads or means of delivering such warheads that won't be spotted and instantly intercepted before they actually fire off. If you seriously believe the endemic corruption that's crippled the armed forces they have did not extend to their very-expensive-to-upkeep nuclear arsenal then i have a bridge to sell to you.
 
2022-09-30 3:33:40 PM  

Thoreny: If his grip on power is slipping, I could see him using nukes. With what kind of strange justifications he comes up with, it wouldn't shock me.

Juc: the command to launch has to go through a number of people all of whom need to be completely irrational for them to launch something globally.

I was actually thinking about the Bastille during the French revolution.

The commander had orders to blow it up if it was under threat. So he decided to do that. There is a famous scene from the film La Révolution française which show his own troops refusing to let the commander enter in the powder room to set it ablaze. The troops under his command knew that blowing it up would have led to mass-casualties of not just the rebels attacking the Bastille, but also those who lived around it.


The same thing happened during WW II... A German commander was ordered to rig explosives
to blow up chunks of Paris... They even picked a man that had no real ties to France or anything..
And that man couldn't do it..Even as allied forces closed, and the order was given to blow up
Paris..."Is Paris Burning?" was a real thing...
 
2022-09-30 3:34:48 PM  

Jake Havechek: These projections are based on rational thinking, which Putin is no longer capable of.


Came here to say this.

Timothy Snyder is someone who has a good historical perspective on Russia, and he mentions this from time-to-time.
 
2022-09-30 3:35:49 PM  

chewd: I suspect he already pushed the big red button & the shiat didnt work because it hasnt seen any maintenance since 1992.


I suspect there are a few other people in that button pushing chain that would refuse to complete the circuit.

Putin may be suicidal, but his cronies probably want to live a while longer.
 
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