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(CNN)   DeathSentence: This is a 500 year rainfall that we could not possibly have anticipated. CNN: No, it's a 1000 YEAR RAINFALL. Scientists: have you listened to a damn thing we've been saying for the past 20 years?   (cnn.com) divider line
    More: Stupid, Tropical cyclone, Hurricane Ian, record-breaking storm surge, Wind, Florida, hurricane territory, Storm, rapid intensification  
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917 clicks; posted to STEM » and Main » on 29 Sep 2022 at 5:07 PM (8 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2022-09-29 4:39:29 PM  
Suddenly Peter F. Hamilton's Armada Storms are looking a li'l less like science fiction. Which was kind of the point of trying to point out that we're on a path that even Sterling's Heavy Weather may have undersold.
 
2022-09-29 4:47:46 PM  
If you couldn't anticipate it then you're inept and shouldn't be in office.
 
2022-09-29 5:09:34 PM  
...You know if we're getting Thousand year floods every other year, that means there's gonna be a lot more hundred thousand year floods too.
 
2022-09-29 5:12:11 PM  
Even worse, all the rescue equipment was sent to Martha's Vineyard.
 
2022-09-29 5:14:34 PM  
I look forward to all the oncoming "But I had no insurance and I lost everything, the commie government should bail me out" stories.

It's been increasingly difficult to find an idiot who will write a policy in the affected areas. There are going to be billions in uninsured losses.
 
2022-09-29 5:19:54 PM  
Sigh.

if there are 1,000 counties in the US the odds are very good that there will be one or more that experience a one in a thousand year rainfall every damn year. Morons think that a 1:1000 year event means once in the whole country every thousand years. It isn't that big of a deal. When a dozen counties experience that type of event almost every year - that is evidence of climate change. The subtle difference between weather (this storm) and change in climate (aggregate weather over time).
 
2022-09-29 5:28:10 PM  

madgonad: Sigh.

if there are 1,000 counties in the US the odds are very good that there will be one or more that experience a one in a thousand year rainfall every damn year. Morons think that a 1:1000 year event means once in the whole country every thousand years. It isn't that big of a deal. When a dozen counties experience that type of event almost every year - that is evidence of climate change. The subtle difference between weather (this storm) and change in climate (aggregate weather over time).


You make a good point and I think it's got some truth to it, but there's something a little off with your reasoning -- there's tens of thousands of voting wards, to name another line drawn on a map. Hundreds of thousands of 36 sq. mi. sections. And considering one of those arbitrary divisions doesn't increase any likelihoods. I'm not sure how to fix it... maybe something to do with statistical distributions of sizes of typical areas seen by a storm...?

My brain tells me it's too late in the afternoon to do math
 
2022-09-29 5:29:02 PM  

Nintenfreak: ...You know if we're getting Thousand year floods every other year, that means there's gonna be a lot more hundred thousand year floods too.


But starting next year we'll just be getting the same floods as this year so we won't have any more thousand year floods. Problem solved?
 
2022-09-29 5:38:56 PM  

phaseolus: madgonad: Sigh.

if there are 1,000 counties in the US the odds are very good that there will be one or more that experience a one in a thousand year rainfall every damn year. Morons think that a 1:1000 year event means once in the whole country every thousand years. It isn't that big of a deal. When a dozen counties experience that type of event almost every year - that is evidence of climate change. The subtle difference between weather (this storm) and change in climate (aggregate weather over time).

You make a good point and I think it's got some truth to it, but there's something a little off with your reasoning -- there's tens of thousands of voting wards, to name another line drawn on a map. Hundreds of thousands of 36 sq. mi. sections. And considering one of those arbitrary divisions doesn't increase any likelihoods. I'm not sure how to fix it... maybe something to do with statistical distributions of sizes of typical areas seen by a storm...?

My brain tells me it's too late in the afternoon to do math


They typically assess these events on a county by county basis because county boundaries don't change (but voting wards sure do!). They did this for the big rainfall in St Louis/St Charles about a month or two ago. Data gets shaky if you get too granular. They use the same models for flooding and you need more area when assessing combined local rainfall and runoff from everywhere upstream. They don't even go by the 'record books'. They just build a model for rain events and plot the distribution. Every county has its own formula. Death Valley's looks a lot different from Key West's. That gives them the probability for different scale events. An event like this is probably a 4.5-sigma rainfall (4.5 standard deviations from the mean).
 
2022-09-29 5:42:30 PM  
For R Desantis??
/way too hard.
//after all, he is a white boy and therefore smarter than everyone else in the room.
///thrice so for uppity women and POCs
 
2022-09-29 5:45:18 PM  

madgonad: phaseolus: madgonad: Sigh.

if there are 1,000 counties in the US the odds are very good that there will be one or more that experience a one in a thousand year rainfall every damn year. Morons think that a 1:1000 year event means once in the whole country every thousand years. It isn't that big of a deal. When a dozen counties experience that type of event almost every year - that is evidence of climate change. The subtle difference between weather (this storm) and change in climate (aggregate weather over time).

You make a good point and I think it's got some truth to it, but there's something a little off with your reasoning -- there's tens of thousands of voting wards, to name another line drawn on a map. Hundreds of thousands of 36 sq. mi. sections. And considering one of those arbitrary divisions doesn't increase any likelihoods. I'm not sure how to fix it... maybe something to do with statistical distributions of sizes of typical areas seen by a storm...?

My brain tells me it's too late in the afternoon to do math

They typically assess these events on a county by county basis because county boundaries don't change (but voting wards sure do!). They did this for the big rainfall in St Louis/St Charles about a month or two ago. Data gets shaky if you get too granular. They use the same models for flooding and you need more area when assessing combined local rainfall and runoff from everywhere upstream. They don't even go by the 'record books'. They just build a model for rain events and plot the distribution. Every county has its own formula. Death Valley's looks a lot different from Key West's. That gives them the probability for different scale events. An event like this is probably a 4.5-sigma rainfall (4.5 standard deviations from the mean).


Also, some counties may never see a 1000 year flood, while others may see it more frequently. This is because of the law of averages. They don't prolly localize the odds... if CNN explained it all accurately.

A hurricane in a hurricane zone could get easily beat rain and windfall averages....

Seeing a hurricane force rainfall in say Colorado would be notably more concerning.
 
2022-09-29 5:47:37 PM  

Rage Against the Thorazine: Nintenfreak: ...You know if we're getting Thousand year floods every other year, that means there's gonna be a lot more hundred thousand year floods too.

But starting next year we'll just be getting the same floods as this year so we won't have any more thousand year floods. Problem solved?


It's like the Homer Simpson meme, worst flood of your life so far. Although I prefer the more optimistic best flood of your life
 
2022-09-29 5:50:41 PM  

Mr. Eugenides: I look forward to all the oncoming "But I had no insurance and I lost everything, the commie government should bail me out" stories.

It's been increasingly difficult to find an idiot who will write a policy in the affected areas. There are going to be billions in uninsured losses.


Fark 'em. They would cheer if food stamps and Section 8 housing were eliminated.

Air-drop a shiatload of bootstraps on Florida and tell them to get busy.

Maybe, just maybe, pass a 5% income tax that goes into an fund that no one can touch until the President declares a Federal emergency.
 
2022-09-29 5:55:15 PM  

madgonad: phaseolus: madgonad: Sigh.

if there are 1,000 counties in the US the odds are very good that there will be one or more that experience a one in a thousand year rainfall every damn year. Morons think that a 1:1000 year event means once in the whole country every thousand years. It isn't that big of a deal. When a dozen counties experience that type of event almost every year - that is evidence of climate change. The subtle difference between weather (this storm) and change in climate (aggregate weather over time).

You make a good point and I think it's got some truth to it, but there's something a little off with your reasoning -- there's tens of thousands of voting wards, to name another line drawn on a map. Hundreds of thousands of 36 sq. mi. sections. And considering one of those arbitrary divisions doesn't increase any likelihoods. I'm not sure how to fix it... maybe something to do with statistical distributions of sizes of typical areas seen by a storm...?

My brain tells me it's too late in the afternoon to do math

They typically assess these events on a county by county basis because county boundaries don't change (but voting wards sure do!). They did this for the big rainfall in St Louis/St Charles about a month or two ago. Data gets shaky if you get too granular. They use the same models for flooding and you need more area when assessing combined local rainfall and runoff from everywhere upstream. They don't even go by the 'record books'. They just build a model for rain events and plot the distribution. Every county has its own formula. Death Valley's looks a lot different from Key West's. That gives them the probability for different scale events. An event like this is probably a 4.5-sigma rainfall (4.5 standard deviations from the mean).


A 4.5 sigma for a hurricane in Florida? 2, maybe 3, tops.

Pretty much all of Tornado Alley is expected to get hit every 500 years. The scary thing with climate change is that the alley is shifting eastward into more populated areas.
 
2022-09-29 5:55:45 PM  

Quantumbunny: Seeing a hurricane force rainfall in say Colorado would be notably more concerning.


That's why I said a thousand year rainfall event would be different depending on the location. A thousand year rainfall event appears to be 12-18" across Florida. Death Valley might get 6" in a thousand year rainfall event.
 
2022-09-29 5:58:42 PM  

indy_kid: Pretty much all of Tornado Alley is expected to get hit every 500 years. The scary thing with climate change is that the alley is shifting eastward into more populated areas.


Yep. I've seen that data. I've also seen three tornadoes in person in my life (I've always lived somewhere in Tornado Alley). My county probably averages a few every year. The odds of my house getting hit are much much more distant - probably something like 1:400,000.
 
2022-09-29 6:33:41 PM  
can we just nuke FLA already
 
2022-09-29 6:34:49 PM  
The moron told people to flee to Miami. Then that message was erased.
 
2022-09-29 6:58:49 PM  

E_Henry_Thripshaws_Disease: can we just nuke FLA already


This site's hatred of FL borders on psychosis.
 
2022-09-29 7:04:10 PM  

E_Henry_Thripshaws_Disease: can we just nuke FLA already


You want mutant Florida-Man, because that's how you get mutant Florida-Man.
 
2022-09-29 7:17:09 PM  

2wolves: E_Henry_Thripshaws_Disease: can we just nuke FLA already

You want mutant Florida-Man, because that's how you get mutant Florida-Man.


There's a difference?
 
2022-09-29 7:19:01 PM  

madgonad: That gives them the probability for different scale events. An event like this is probably a 4.5-sigma rainfall (4.5 standard deviations from the mean).


From the mean of recorded data or from the model?  If model, does the model actually have good predictive power for strong and/or uncommon events or does it break down far from its median?
 
2022-09-29 7:24:11 PM  
If I lived in Florida I would anticipate hurricanes. If I lived on the coast I would anticipate hurricane flooding. Shouldn't those who live on the Florida coast always be prepared for the eventuality of getting hit? Kind of like how Californians know the next earthquake could happen any day.
 
2022-09-29 7:25:47 PM  
Also curious if anyone knows how the "1 in x years" statements are calculated.  There are clearly not enough records to fully map the the strength and frequency distributions on that time scale.  Is it assumed that the distributions we do have hold for longer time scales?  Might their shape change (longer tail?) if data was collected for longer?
 
2022-09-29 7:57:03 PM  
Have you noticed Republican stupidity usually hurts the Republican voters the most?

Global warming? Southern and mid-western states, flooded or drought-stricken, farmland useless.

Tax cuts for the rich and corporate welfare? Working man gets the shaft.

Ban abortion? More dependents on welfare.

Fight immigration?  No labor for construction or food harvesting.

Voter suppression? Turn away Republican voters, too.

Covid response? A million dead americans, mostly those who refuse vaccine.

They must hate themselves.
 
2022-09-29 8:48:15 PM  
Wait until they find out that a one in 10,000 year flood needs an ark.
 
2022-09-29 10:08:02 PM  

Tom Marvolo Bombadil: Also curious if anyone knows how the "1 in x years" statements are calculated.  There are clearly not enough records to fully map the the strength and frequency distributions on that time scale.  Is it assumed that the distributions we do have hold for longer time scales?  Might their shape change (longer tail?) if data was collected for longer?


Assuming it's similar to using hydrographs to calculate the estimated return frequency of different flooding intervals for rivers, I seem to remember it's a log-normal plot, extrapolated out to the areas beyond your data. (Yes, Fark pedants, I know that "beyond your data" is redundant to the very definition of "extrapolation". Go off and argue how "gif" is pronounced; we're having an adult conversation here.)

A Google later, my undergrad hydrology memories are still good, apparently:
https://serc.carleton.edu/hydromodules/steps/168500.html

Assuming the climatologists do storms in similar fashion, it does mean that there's ever-increasing uncertainty when predicting ever rarer events.
 
2022-09-29 10:11:47 PM  
This is how I feel about it now.  "Oh my god, things are dying like crazy!  We've never seen anything like this!"

i.kym-cdn.comView Full Size
 
2022-09-29 10:13:25 PM  
Or, and stay with me here, IT'S FREAKING FLORIDA.  GETTING HIT BY A FREAKING HURRICANE.

You know, something that happens way more frequently than every 500 years.  On average, it happens like once a year or so.

The catastrophic flooding in New Mexico, Yellowstone (I think it was yellowstone?), Las Vegas, Death Valley, Illinois, Kentucky... all those places getting 1000 year floods?  That's concerning.

Florida getting hit by a hurricane is not a freaking 1000 year flood.  That's like a 2 year flood.
 
2022-09-29 10:16:59 PM  

DON.MAC: Wait until they find out that a one in 10,000 year flood needs an ark.


The Ark would have capsized the moment it hit the water.
 
2022-09-29 10:29:31 PM  
Wait so now Fark listens to CNN?  You guys have been saying for months they don't know what they are talking about.  Why is that?
 
2022-09-29 10:50:43 PM  

Quantumbunny: ... if CNN explained it all accurately.


Accurate?  Perhaps.  Precise?  Not really.

So basically, if you collect the rainfall maximums year after year, then sort it by amount and graph it on a log scale, it's typically a straight line.   So you should be able to extrapolate, but you don't know if you're in the middle of a dry period or wet period.

So you need decades of data, and even thats's going to be wrong if there's a trend across the whole thing (such as you'd get with global climate change), because how it's calculated doesn't actually look at that sort of skewing

/took some hydrology classes ~25 years ago
//has never used it professionally
 
2022-09-30 5:38:24 AM  

fluffy_pope: Even worse, all the rescue equipment was sent to Martha's Vineyard.


Ironically, the aid to FL from MA is coming from JBCC, which is housing the asylum seekers DeSantis had trafficked to Martha's Vineyard.
 
2022-09-30 10:04:23 AM  

Tom Marvolo Bombadil: From the mean of recorded data or from the model?  If model, does the model actually have good predictive power for strong and/or uncommon events or does it break down far from its median?


That actually is part of the point. The models that have been developed using a ton of new and old data are less effective. You can only accept a drastic increase in low probability events for so long until you have to acknowledge that the climate is changing and the model needs to be updated to reflect the new weather patterns.
 
2022-09-30 3:58:55 PM  

ClintonTyree: Tom Marvolo Bombadil: Also curious if anyone knows how the "1 in x years" statements are calculated.  There are clearly not enough records to fully map the the strength and frequency distributions on that time scale.  Is it assumed that the distributions we do have hold for longer time scales?  Might their shape change (longer tail?) if data was collected for longer?

Assuming it's similar to using hydrographs to calculate the estimated return frequency of different flooding intervals for rivers, I seem to remember it's a log-normal plot, extrapolated out to the areas beyond your data. (Yes, Fark pedants, I know that "beyond your data" is redundant to the very definition of "extrapolation". Go off and argue how "gif" is pronounced; we're having an adult conversation here.)

A Google later, my undergrad hydrology memories are still good, apparently:
https://serc.carleton.edu/hydromodules/steps/168500.html

Assuming the climatologists do storms in similar fashion, it does mean that there's ever-increasing uncertainty when predicting ever rarer events.


That's what I figured, also.  Note, however, that when you're looking at such tails even a tiny shift in the mid point can have dramatic effects in the frequency of very rare events.  (Note how NBA players are very disproportionately black--while there are economic factors at work a large part of this is because blacks are on average **slightly** taller than whites.  When you're looking at a group of people the difference is far too small to notice, but when you're looking at frequencies way out in the tail it matters.)  Make the air slightly warmer and you see a big effect on the frequency of 1 in 1000 rainfall events.
 
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