Skip to content
Do you have adblock enabled?
 
If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(Marketwatch)   GDP numbers confirm the US economy shrank in the first half of 2022. One could say it even ...recessed   (marketwatch.com) divider line
    More: News, Unemployment, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Monetary policy, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Economy of the United States, Great Depression, high inflation  
•       •       •

452 clicks; posted to Business » on 29 Sep 2022 at 4:35 PM (10 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



29 Comments     (+0 »)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2022-09-29 3:36:04 PM  
This is bad news.....for Obama.
 
2022-09-29 4:37:34 PM  

Walker: This is bad news.....for Obama.


The finger pointing begins!
 
2022-09-29 4:40:50 PM  
They wanted to curb inflation. Well they succeeded!

I don't think I've ever been in a manufactured recession before. From what I'm seeing though, it seems like demand is still high but there have been chronic supply issues.
 
2022-09-29 4:40:57 PM  
i.pinimg.comView Full Size
 
2022-09-29 4:41:47 PM  
So what if it did?
 
2022-09-29 4:48:42 PM  

Gaddiel: They wanted to curb inflation. Well they succeeded!

I don't think I've ever been in a manufactured recession before. From what I'm seeing though, it seems like demand is still high but there have been chronic supply issues.


It's a necessary result of a decade of very poor fiscal management by the Fed, really going back to 2008.  The money spigots got turned on hard and all sorts of speculative investments like bitcoin flourished.  Then Covid hit and the Fed had to dump another huge pile of money into the system.  We had never been at such low rates as a country, and we kept rates super low for way too long.  You do that long enough and inflation is inevitable.  We haven't had a good Fed chairman since Volker, they've all been beholden to Wall Street rather than Main Street.
 
2022-09-29 5:02:22 PM  
So far it seems to be only a recession for the very wealthy who normally have their snouts first in the trough for when the Fed is doling out cheap money.
 
2022-09-29 5:21:22 PM  
Reading the article is cringeworthy.

It reveals that the economic indicators they use to declare a "recession" are sort of meaningless.
 
2022-09-29 5:27:46 PM  
There is no recession. C'mon man!
 
2022-09-29 5:35:56 PM  
Time to bail out the elites.

THE ENGINE MUST TURN!  Grind the plebes into grease and fuel for the engine if needed.  And it is needed, so the elites can be comfortable.
 
2022-09-29 5:43:51 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size


This is unsustainable.
 
2022-09-29 5:48:46 PM  

Gaddiel: They wanted to curb inflation. Well they succeeded!

I don't think I've ever been in a manufactured recession before. From what I'm seeing though, it seems like demand is still high but there have been chronic supply issues.


Demand is very high for a lot of things, that's why prices are high!  Why does NO ONE understand supply and demand?

When demand suddenly spikes it takes a long time to get everything increased so the supply is high enough to match.  Covid did that.  People changed their ways on a LOT of things super quick.  Unfortunately for a lot of things, they changed their ways to match supply but because that takes a while, demand tanks and now there's all this extra crap no one wants and that increases prices further with all this wasted inventory and money spent.

Add in catastrophic droughts (and a war) causing food prices to skyrocket and you have super high prices for things.

/If you want a very crystal clear example... people's appetite for chicken wings spiked wildly during the lockdown.  Demand was WAYYYYYY up.  As a result, prices skyrocketed too.  But then everyone saw how expensive they were and cut way back and/or switched to boneless wings.  As a result, demand tanked for wings, and now they're basically back to the same price they were before covid.  Everyone blamed 'supply'... I mean, yeah, technically they couldn't meet the sudden increase but the problem lies in demand.  Course no one wants to hear that.
//Same with air travel.  People were locked down for 2 years and now they want to vacation all over the place.  As a result, demand for air travel is even higher than it was before covid.  Adding pilots, which require literally thousands of hours of training, is not a quick thing.  It's not really a 'labor' or 'supply' issue here, it's a sudden massive increase in demand that's the problem.
 
2022-09-29 5:50:29 PM  

jake3988: Gaddiel: They wanted to curb inflation. Well they succeeded!

I don't think I've ever been in a manufactured recession before. From what I'm seeing though, it seems like demand is still high but there have been chronic supply issues.

Demand is very high for a lot of things, that's why prices are high!  Why does NO ONE understand supply and demand?

When demand suddenly spikes it takes a long time to get everything increased so the supply is high enough to match.  Covid did that.  People changed their ways on a LOT of things super quick.  Unfortunately for a lot of things, they changed their ways to match supply but because that takes a while, demand tanks and now there's all this extra crap no one wants and that increases prices further with all this wasted inventory and money spent.

Add in catastrophic droughts (and a war) causing food prices to skyrocket and you have super high prices for things.

/If you want a very crystal clear example... people's appetite for chicken wings spiked wildly during the lockdown.  Demand was WAYYYYYY up.  As a result, prices skyrocketed too.  But then everyone saw how expensive they were and cut way back and/or switched to boneless wings.  As a result, demand tanked for wings, and now they're basically back to the same price they were before covid.  Everyone blamed 'supply'... I mean, yeah, technically they couldn't meet the sudden increase but the problem lies in demand.  Course no one wants to hear that.
//Same with air travel.  People were locked down for 2 years and now they want to vacation all over the place.  As a result, demand for air travel is even higher than it was before covid.  Adding pilots, which require literally thousands of hours of training, is not a quick thing.  It's not really a 'labor' or 'supply' issue here, it's a sudden massive increase in demand that's the problem.


This is why I love the business tab, so many people explaining the most basic economic ideas as if they are geniuses and no one else knows them
 
2022-09-29 6:21:46 PM  

Gaddiel: They wanted to curb inflation. Well they succeeded!

I don't think I've ever been in a manufactured recession before. From what I'm seeing though, it seems like demand is still high but there have been chronic supply issues.


These figures refer to January through June of 2022. The first big rate hike wasn't until May, which is late enough that it's not going to have any effect on GDP through June.

Economic growth is measured in real GDP, which means you have to calculate both nominal GDP and inflation over a period. Nominal GDP obviously grew incredibly fast: Nominal GDP grew by 9.6% in Q2 2022 ($25.248T) compared to Q2 2021 (23.047T)

The question was whether it grew faster than inflation - and the figures confirm that it did not.

That means these figures strengthen the justification for rate hikes as the correct action to take, because it's high inflation causing real GDP to drop, not a drop in nominal GDP. If anything, this data says these rate increases should have come sooner.
 
2022-09-29 6:40:44 PM  
A recession with no job losses is the damnedest thing I've ever seen.
 
2022-09-29 7:14:05 PM  

Troy McClure: A recession with no job losses is the damnedest thing I've ever seen.


It's early yet.
 
2022-09-29 7:20:46 PM  

Gaddiel: I don't think I've ever been in a manufactured recession before


Certainly not the first though.  Volcker Shock '81 wasn't really the first either, but the one a few voters will remember (a lot lived through it, few remember, fewer understand).  Sucked for a lot of people, but basically every econ book since says it was effective and necessary.
 
2022-09-29 7:33:43 PM  

Red Shirt Blues: Troy McClure: A recession with no job losses is the damnedest thing I've ever seen.

It's early yet.


Average recession is 11 months.
 
2022-09-29 7:46:49 PM  

Gaddiel: They wanted to curb inflation. Well they succeeded!

I don't think I've ever been in a manufactured recession before. From what I'm seeing though, it seems like demand is still high but there have been chronic supply issues.


First term of Reagan. Volker's Fed did the same thing that is happening now. Inflation was sky high. They raised rates even higher than today. Had back to back fecessions, but they stopped inflation.
 
2022-09-29 7:50:09 PM  

Red Shirt Blues: Troy McClure: A recession with no job losses is the damnedest thing I've ever seen.

It's early yet.


It's six months in, if you insist on pretending that two quarters of contraction automatically means recession. In 2008, within the first two quarters unemployment jumped by a point and a half.
 
2022-09-29 8:13:29 PM  
This will be a weird one.

Recessions used to happen every 3-5 years, but the monetary policy has been tweaked a ton over the last 15 years specifically to prevent one.  Coming out of a pandemic is new too.

Unemployment is still very low and that may have a lot to do with demographics, a large amount of boomers retiring.   Inflation is fairly high (but not historically so).  Interest rates are mostly back to normal, we just got used to nearly free money since 2008.

if issues like the Ukraine, China monetary issues don't persist much longer, and inflation goes down, the recession should be fairly short and painless.
 
2022-09-29 8:24:29 PM  

dsmith42: Had back to back fecessions


Way worse than a normal recession.
 
2022-09-29 9:11:55 PM  

Red Shirt Blues: dsmith42: Had back to back fecessions
Way worse than a normal recession.


They tax you for being broke, then they tax you again for being even broker.
 
2022-09-29 9:31:30 PM  

Lord Bear: This will be a weird one.

Recessions used to happen every 3-5 years, but the monetary policy has been tweaked a ton over the last 15 years specifically to prevent one.  Coming out of a pandemic is new too.

Unemployment is still very low and that may have a lot to do with demographics, a large amount of boomers retiring.   Inflation is fairly high (but not historically so).  Interest rates are mostly back to normal, we just got used to nearly free money since 2008.

if issues like the Ukraine, China monetary issues don't persist much longer, and inflation goes down, the recession should be fairly short and painless.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-09-29 9:44:21 PM  
Stonk market out front, taking the gaspipe, shoulda told ya.
 
2022-09-29 9:49:45 PM  
but of course if the reality is, the values and prices were all bs over inflated, then it's not a recession, but a correction.
 
2022-09-29 9:55:53 PM  
But it was going swimmingly...
 
2022-09-30 1:29:07 AM  

jake3988: Everyone blamed 'supply'... I mean, yeah, technically they couldn't meet the sudden increase but the problem lies in demand.  Course no one wants to hear that.


Hmm...there can be both demand shocks and supply shocks to the economy. I mean since supply and demand are usually discussed in relation to eachother you could claim that it's always a problem with demand. But it doesn't hold up well when you're talking about economic forces caused by, say, hundreds of thousands of workers suddenly unavailable, or 109 container ships waiting offshore at Los Angeles. Which happened. And was clearly a supply shock. There are still non-trivial supply-chain problems (look up the recent STB hearings with the Class I railroads & their service levels) which contribute to inflation. Yeah, bringing demand down via interest rates will move the economy towards equilibrium and "cool it down", but supply is definitely still part of the problems we have.

None of this is related to "supply-side economics" of course, which is stupid and should be taken as seriously as flat-Earth or stolen election theories.
 
2022-09-30 8:26:34 AM  
An expanding economy but in recession. All those Economics classes years ago have not trained me to understand these new alternative truths.
 
Displayed 29 of 29 comments

View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

This thread is closed to new comments.

Continue Farking




On Twitter


  1. Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.

  2. When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.

  3. Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.

  4. Click here to submit a link.