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(NOAA)   Hurricane Ian to become Florida Man on Wednesday. This is your official Ian discussion thread. Anyone evacuates as far north as Kentucky let Drew know so he can buy you a beer   (noaa.gov) divider line
    More: Live, accurate information, National Weather Service, NOAA's National Weather Service, most current forecasted weather conditions, Meteorology, compilation of information, available resources, Wind  
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1052 clicks; posted to Main » and Discussion » on 27 Sep 2022 at 9:31 AM (8 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-09-27 9:32:59 AM  
Stay safe farkers!
 
2022-09-27 9:33:33 AM  
Ian's a stupid name. There. I said it.
 
2022-09-27 9:34:29 AM  
Can't they just ask TFG to Sharpie Ian a path to Alabama and save Florida?
 
2022-09-27 9:35:43 AM  
I'm no expert, but from what I've read, this looks like it's going to be bad on all fronts: storm surges, tornadoes, flooding, wind. If you can still leave, consider it. If not, take every imaginable precaution, and check in with loved ones when you can.

If you are staying, go ahead and take a video of all your possessions and condition of your house. Insurance is going to be a long battle. Back that up on a cloud, on your phone, on your computer, everywhere. Leave no stone unturned.
 
2022-09-27 9:36:29 AM  
I could never live in an area where your entire existence is in peril every year.  Easy for me to say as i'm safe up here in Ohio.


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2022-09-27 9:36:30 AM  
It's a hurric-Ian.
 
2022-09-27 9:36:34 AM  
pbs.twimg.comView Full Size
 
2022-09-27 9:37:40 AM  

sxacho: Ian's a stupid name. There. I said it.


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2022-09-27 9:38:25 AM  
I'm hoping that this storm is just being hyped and nobody gets hurt.
Fingers crossed that none of the bad stuff happens.
 
2022-09-27 9:39:03 AM  
I texted my mom this morning, but haven't heard back yet. She lives in Sarasota with my dad. I hope they are able to get a little further inland, I'm more worried about the aftermath than the storm TBH, last major storm that nicked Sarasota they were out of power for almost a week IIRC.
 
2022-09-27 9:40:16 AM  

AnotherBluesStringer: I'm no expert, but from what I've read, this looks like it's going to be bad on all fronts: storm surges, tornadoes, flooding, wind. If you can still leave, consider it. If not, take every imaginable precaution, and check in with loved ones when you can.

If you are staying, go ahead and take a video of all your possessions and condition of your house. Insurance is going to be a long battle. Back that up on a cloud, on your phone, on your computer, everywhere. Leave no stone unturned.


I would say backup everything and take pictures if your leaving also.  Don't forget to get some pictures of the nice things your neighbors have as well.  Well that is unless your expecting thoughts and prayers to work, in that case you can sit outside and enjoy the show.
 
2022-09-27 9:41:42 AM  

Weaver95: I'm hoping that this storm is just being hyped and nobody gets hurt.
Fingers crossed that none of the bad stuff happens.


Cat 3 at landfall. Take a look at what that does.

How strong are Category 4 hurricane winds? This video shows damage by storm category
Youtube lVTeNLku590
 
2022-09-27 9:42:28 AM  
I sold my house down there 4 months ago and moved back to Massachusetts...

Just got an emergency call from Florida that I need to evacuate
 
2022-09-27 9:42:28 AM  
What are the over/under odds of just how quickly DeathSentence goes running to Brandon for FEMA money?
 
2022-09-27 9:42:30 AM  
Crap. It's gonna hit Davenport again.  Bro's got a rental unit there. Took forever the repair stuff after Irma in 2017.
 
2022-09-27 9:43:17 AM  
Latest track.

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Evac zones:
pbs.twimg.comView Full Size


Rain will be intense.
pbs.twimg.comView Full Size
 
2022-09-27 9:44:43 AM  
I literally just moved back to the central Florida area not one week ago...and then this happens. I was gonna job hunt today but I think that is gonna be put on hold. I'm just helping the fam prepare ie charging power banks, bringing stuff inside etc.
 
2022-09-27 9:45:57 AM  
Stay safe.

Another "I" name storm? If it ends up being bad enough as they say it is and Ian gets retired, we would have run out of I names to use.
 
2022-09-27 9:46:01 AM  
TFette friend in the Tampa area got an evacuation notice yesterday and hit the road to SC this morning.  She's zipping up I-95 as we speak.  Good move, things are only going to deteriorate going forward so people trying to get out tonight or later are in for a rough time.
 
2022-09-27 9:46:48 AM  

bighairyguy: TFette friend in the Tampa area got an evacuation notice yesterday and hit the road to SC this morning.  She's zipping up I-95 as we speak.  Good move, things are only going to deteriorate going forward so people trying to get out tonight or later are in for a rough time.


Even last night it was a nightmare of traffic based on reports I saw. Glad she is out!
 
2022-09-27 9:47:13 AM  

Mukster: Can't they just ask TFG to Sharpie Ian a path to Alabama and save Florida?


Forget the Spaghetti models, use the more accurate Severe Hurricane Advisory Range/Path Inference Engine
 
2022-09-27 9:47:38 AM  

Weaver95: I'm hoping that this storm is just being hyped and nobody gets hurt.
Fingers crossed that none of the bad stuff happens.


Just read the NHC information.  It's informative and hype free.  For example, here's a concerning note from the Discussion page:
5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South Florida Tuesday, spreading into central to northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday, and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding is expected across Central Florida into southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged river flooding expected across central to northern Florida.

And from the Public Advisory this is concerning:
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Anclote River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River... 5-8 ft * Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL... 4-7 ft * Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including St. Johns River...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay...2-4 ft * Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft * Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft * Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Keep in mind, this includes the barrier islands off of Sarasota.  These islands have an elevation of around 3 feet and a lot of homes on ground level.  On the current track, they will be entirely flooded.  Those islands under mandatory evacuation, the water is being turned off, and no one will be allowed to enter them at sundown tonight.  https://www.wfla.com/news/local-news/manatee-county/anna-maria-island-shutting-down-at-sundown-tuesday-county-administrator-says/
 
2022-09-27 9:48:26 AM  

Weaver95: I'm hoping that this storm is just being hyped and nobody gets hurt.
Fingers crossed that none of the bad stuff happens.


No hype; this is a major storm bringing major damage. Of course, on the Wx Channel there will still be kids frolicking in the surf behind the weather dude or dudette. It's always "Wheee!" before the WHOMP.
 
2022-09-27 9:48:27 AM  
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2022-09-27 9:49:49 AM  

SoupJohnB: Weaver95: I'm hoping that this storm is just being hyped and nobody gets hurt.
Fingers crossed that none of the bad stuff happens.

No hype; this is a major storm bringing major damage. Of course, on the Wx Channel there will still be kids frolicking in the surf behind the weather dude or dudette. It's always "Wheee!" before the WHOMP.


Yeah big problem is that we are likely to see a "full stall" where the storm doesn't move for over twenty four hours. That area of the coast is a place I would not want to be. Storm surge of 5-10' and 2' of rain is catastrophic flooding territory
 
2022-09-27 9:50:23 AM  
Heineken is poser beer.
 
2022-09-27 9:50:41 AM  

ltdanman44: I could never live in an area where your entire existence is in peril every year.  Easy for me to say as i'm safe up here in Ohio.


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I'm in PA. I'm on constant guard in case Ohio tries anything.
 
2022-09-27 9:51:28 AM  

kdawg7736: Stay safe.

Another "I" name storm? If it ends up being bad enough as they say it is and Ian gets retired, we would have run out of I names to use.


The name pool is not just English.  They use names from any of the language groups present in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins.
 
2022-09-27 9:56:49 AM  
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2022-09-27 9:57:21 AM  
 
2022-09-27 9:58:43 AM  

sxacho: Ian's a stupid name. There. I said it.


:(
 
2022-09-27 9:59:39 AM  
You never can tell with hurricanes. But I think we'll just get typical showers and slight wind here in BHM.
Occasionally these fall storms do the 'headed straight for us' thing and we have to be extra prepared.
But we've been through those so many times in tornado and 'ice storm' season we have a fairly good collection of stuff in the big Tupperware bugout/camp box....but that's mostly winter storm stuff. We do have a way to swap out charged deepcycle 'marine class' batteries charged in the car and bring inside with an inverter to use for powering little TV's, charging pads/phones etc. The only worries would be the fish tank....but it's warm enough now they won't care. Still need a new roof tho.
 
2022-09-27 9:59:47 AM  

NuclearPenguins: sxacho: Ian's a stupid name. There. I said it.

:(


There there. I have a dumb name too.
 
2022-09-27 10:00:52 AM  
Has Trump claimed credit yet for using his "mind" to deflect the hurricane around Mar-A-Lago?
 
2022-09-27 10:00:58 AM  

Weaver95: I'm hoping that this storm is just being hyped and nobody gets hurt.
Fingers crossed that none of the bad stuff happens.


That ship has sailed I think. The gulf coast between Tampa and Ft. Myers is completely urbanized so someone is going to get hit hard and it's probably not going to be pretty.

The one positive is if it does make landfall south of the mouth of Tampa Bay, it cuts down on the storm surge (although still pretty bad).

All the Tampa and Ft. Myers stations I've been watching online seemed resigned to the fact this storm is heading their way.
 
2022-09-27 10:01:08 AM  
I moved away from Tampa this past summer. We evacuated for Charley and Irma. It's miserable to evacuate, but potentially more miserable to stay. Our old house is looking like it could get some surge. I hope not. Stay safe, y'all!
 
2022-09-27 10:03:07 AM  
 
2022-09-27 10:04:41 AM  
Just in case any of you old punks haven't seen this yet - gave me a right proper chuckle.

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2022-09-27 10:04:41 AM  
Can anyone talk about the destructive effects of a 10ft. storm surge?

I remember the tsunami was what caused so much destruction in Japan after Fukushima.
 
2022-09-27 10:04:48 AM  
Well, crap. That's supposed to be the traffic cameras at I-4 and I-75.
 
2022-09-27 10:07:02 AM  

educated: Just in case any of you old punks haven't seen this yet - gave me a right proper chuckle.

[Fark user image 425x421]


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2022-09-27 10:07:11 AM  

kdawg7736: Stay safe.

Another "I" name storm? If it ends up being bad enough as they say it is and Ian gets retired, we would have run out of I names to use.


Male "I" names retired so far are: Ivan, Ike, and Igor (also Inigo in the western Pacific and Ian(!) and Isaac in the south Pacific, although clearly retiring a name in one basin doesn't preclude using it somewhere else) The other currently used I names are Isaac and Isaias in the Atlantic, and Irwin, Ivo, and Ignacio in the eastern Pacific.

Available replacements could include Ichabod, Inigo, Ishmael (avoid that one for the obvious Moby Dick jokes), just to name a few.
 
2022-09-27 10:07:11 AM  

djfitz: Can anyone talk about the destructive effects of a 10ft. storm surge?

I remember the tsunami was what caused so much destruction in Japan after Fukushima.


See it as a temporary sea level rise. Basically it means that you'll have flooding, and gives the rain falling no place to go either.

Tampa is an interesting case too because the water off the coast is very shallow. Good for deintensification but bad for flooding.
 
2022-09-27 10:08:36 AM  

djfitz: Can anyone talk about the destructive effects of a 10ft. storm surge?

I remember the tsunami was what caused so much destruction in Japan after Fukushima.


WaPo story, didn't hit a paywall, YMMV
 
2022-09-27 10:10:19 AM  

bighairyguy: educated: Just in case any of you old punks haven't seen this yet - gave me a right proper chuckle.

[Fark user image 425x421]

[Fark user image image 593x590]


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2022-09-27 10:10:27 AM  

djfitz: Can anyone talk about the destructive effects of a 10ft. storm surge?

I remember the tsunami was what caused so much destruction in Japan after Fukushima.


It's not quite as immediately catastrophic as a tsunami, since it's a rise that happens on the scale of hours rather than minutes; it's more like a river flood, except that the river is the ocean.
 
2022-09-27 10:10:44 AM  

djfitz: Can anyone talk about the destructive effects of a 10ft. storm surge?

I remember the tsunami was what caused so much destruction in Japan after Fukushima.


Imagine 10ft of water and debris washing over this.

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It isn't as quick as a tsunami however, it can be longer-lasting, and there is also continue wave action and wind as well.
 
2022-09-27 10:12:22 AM  

djfitz: Can anyone talk about the destructive effects of a 10ft. storm surge?

I remember the tsunami was what caused so much destruction in Japan after Fukushima.


Here are some historical examples:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

But here's a sobering fact:
72% of ports, 27% of major roads, and 9% of rail lines within the Gulf Coast region are at or below 4 ft elevation (CCSP, SAP 4-7)

That's a lot of vulnerable infrastructure.  You might recall Laura hit 17ft a few years ago and destroyed Cameron, LA and the surrounding area, but that's really rural.  Southwestern LA is empty.

Katrina was 25 to 28 ft and scraped much of coastal Mississippi clean, but that was a monster.  We won't see that.
 
2022-09-27 10:12:48 AM  

wxboy: kdawg7736: Stay safe.

Another "I" name storm? If it ends up being bad enough as they say it is and Ian gets retired, we would have run out of I names to use.

Male "I" names retired so far are: Ivan, Ike, and Igor (also Inigo in the western Pacific and Ian(!) and Isaac in the south Pacific, although clearly retiring a name in one basin doesn't preclude using it somewhere else) The other currently used I names are Isaac and Isaias in the Atlantic, and Irwin, Ivo, and Ignacio in the eastern Pacific.

Available replacements could include Ichabod, Inigo, Ishmael (avoid that one for the obvious Moby Dick jokes), just to name a few.


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2022-09-27 10:14:46 AM  
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Reverse storm surge at Marco Island, storm is sucking in water essentially, that's why so much of the beach is exposed.
 
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