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(The Conversation)   The Drake equation for alien intelligence is more important than ever, as opposed to the Kanye equation for alien illiteracy   (theconversation.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, Planet, Extraterrestrial life, US astrophysicist Frank Drake, extraterrestrial life, Drake equation, Mercury Surface, Open University, Life  
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548 clicks; posted to STEM » on 27 Sep 2022 at 5:00 AM (9 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



31 Comments     (+0 »)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2022-09-27 5:10:49 AM  
encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.comView Full Size


Terror+Flaps+Night+Bubblegum+Shoe+Crime= %chance of AliensDarkwing Ducks
 
2022-09-27 5:43:21 AM  
The drake equation is dumb as fark. Its the mathematical version of a football field sized dartboard for the chances of alien life with the equations being based on farkall

A child has the same chance of telling you the answer as the equation does
 
2022-09-27 6:17:02 AM  

Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.


And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.
 
2022-09-27 6:25:34 AM  

Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.


Asimov's Laws are revered, and the three laws of robotics are often talked about by people trying to make AI, too.

Despite the fact that HIS OWN WRITING explores why those three laws actually don't farking work.
 
2022-09-27 6:30:10 AM  

Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.


He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.
 
2022-09-27 6:45:30 AM  

leeksfromchichis: Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.

He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.


True but the factors his equation considers seem on point.  What do you think should be added?
 
2022-09-27 7:00:28 AM  

Muta: leeksfromchichis: Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.

He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.

True but the factors his equation considers seem on point.  What do you think should be added?


An actual number would be nice.
 
2022-09-27 7:04:13 AM  
imgs.xkcd.comView Full Size
 
2022-09-27 7:04:43 AM  
imgs.xkcd.comView Full Size
 
2022-09-27 7:24:43 AM  

Muta: leeksfromchichis: Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.

He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.

True but the factors his equation considers seem on point.  What do you think should be added?


Real science.

Mathsturbation isn't necessarily wrong if you accept the premises, but like chess problems that are impossible situations by the rules of the game, they mean nothing.

If your variables can never be tabulated, the equation can be flushed down the toilet in practical terms.

 It's like saying "If we knew everything about dark matter and dark energy already, and the ways particle accelerators could unlock it, and the complete brain structures of every scientist crunching the numbers, we could calculate CERN's chances of discovering anything about dark matter."   Yes, but that and a dollar can get you a coffee.
 
2022-09-27 7:25:54 AM  

Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.


So is Trump. And Miss Cleo. Popularity is a particularly stupid proxy for quality. Especially in science.
 
2022-09-27 7:26:41 AM  

ArcadianRefugee: Muta: leeksfromchichis: Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.

He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.

True but the factors his equation considers seem on point.  What do you think should be added?

An actual number would be nice.


Is this a BS equation because there aren't enough numbers?


Fark user image
 
2022-09-27 7:36:48 AM  

Muta: ArcadianRefugee: Muta: leeksfromchichis: Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.

He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.

True but the factors his equation considers seem on point.  What do you think should be added?

An actual number would be nice.

Is this a BS equation because there aren't enough numbers?


[Fark user image image 402x76]


Damnit! I was assured that there would be no math. This is Fark! It is for farking, not maths.
/Jeez
//At least you kept it out of the politics tab.
 
2022-09-27 7:37:55 AM  

Muta: ArcadianRefugee: Muta: leeksfromchichis: Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.

He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.

True but the factors his equation considers seem on point.  What do you think should be added?

An actual number would be nice.

Is this a BS equation because there aren't enough numbers?


[Fark user image image 402x76]


The equation is meaningless because the numbers require knowledge far in excess of anything possible before enough data has been collected that the equation's answer becomes meaningless before it's remotely possible to test it for accuracy.
 
2022-09-27 7:40:55 AM  
Drake equation isn't totally dumb, but it misses way too many variables to be useful on its own.

Keeping in mind that an intelligent space faring civilisation we can't communicate with effectively doesn't exist for any useful purposes.  94% of the entire universe is already out of reach even if we invent light speed travel tomorrow.

TRUE Limits Of Humanity - The Final Border We Will Never Cross
Youtube uzkD5SeuwzM


Now in fairness the Drake equation only talks about the Milky Way.  But the Fermi Paradox pretty much stomps it into the ground.  If you consider all the variables for intelligent interstellar communicating life to exist then even if you generously assume each variable is a generous 50/50 chance of happening.  Then the chances of life like us is 1 in a quadrillion.

Which is a bit of a problem because there are only 400 billion stars in the Milky Way, so on average it is one humanlike civilisation per 2,500 Milky Ways.
 
2022-09-27 7:56:17 AM  

Muta: ArcadianRefugee: Muta: leeksfromchichis: Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.

He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.

True but the factors his equation considers seem on point.  What do you think should be added?

An actual number would be nice.

Is this a BS equation because there aren't enough numbers?


[Fark user image image 402x76]


a^2 + b^2 = c^2 didn't have any numbers, but numbers can easily be assigned as we know (can easily measure) things like "a" and "b".

Drake's equation can easily be written as this

N = ? · ? · ? · ? · ? · ? · ?

and be just as useful. It's little more than a thought experiment.
 
2022-09-27 8:17:58 AM  

leeksfromchichis: Muta: leeksfromchichis: Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.

He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.

True but the factors his equation considers seem on point.  What do you think should be added?

Real science.

Mathsturbation isn't necessarily wrong if you accept the premises, but like chess problems that are impossible situations by the rules of the game, they mean nothing.

If your variables can never be tabulated, the equation can be flushed down the toilet in practical terms.

It's like saying "If we knew everything about dark matter and dark energy already, and the ways particle accelerators could unlock it, and the complete brain structures of every scientist crunching the numbers, we could calculate CERN's chances of discovering anything about dark matter."   Yes, but that and a dollar can get you a coffee.


Where are you getting coffee for a dollar?
 
2022-09-27 8:28:57 AM  
HotWingConspiracy:

Bucks

The star costs extra
 
2022-09-27 9:07:23 AM  

Ambitwistor: [imgs.xkcd.com image 437x391]


Well that ends the thread
 
2022-09-27 9:30:58 AM  

ArcadianRefugee: Muta: ArcadianRefugee: Muta: leeksfromchichis: Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.

He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.

True but the factors his equation considers seem on point.  What do you think should be added?

An actual number would be nice.

Is this a BS equation because there aren't enough numbers?


[Fark user image image 402x76]

a^2 + b^2 = c^2 didn't have any numbers, but numbers can easily be assigned as we know (can easily measure) things like "a" and "b".


*cough* 2 *cough*
 
2022-09-27 9:36:03 AM  

ArcadianRefugee: Muta: ArcadianRefugee: Muta: leeksfromchichis: Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.

He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.

True but the factors his equation considers seem on point.  What do you think should be added?

An actual number would be nice.

Is this a BS equation because there aren't enough numbers?


[Fark user image image 402x76]

a^2 + b^2 = c^2 didn't have any numbers, but numbers can easily be assigned as we know (can easily measure) things like "a" and "b".

Drake's equation can easily be written as this

N = ? · ? · ? · ? · ? · ? · ?

and be just as useful. It's little more than a thought experiment.


The drake equation is simply an expansion of "how likely is it that a given particle collides with another particle?", identifying the terms you need to establish in order to make that probability calculation. It is useful for picking apart unsupported claims re: probability of contact by identifying the assumptions made and forcing you to contend with whatever part turns out to be ridiculous. It's not useful for making an independent prediction, as we do not and pretty much cannot have all the requisite data or even reasonably reliable estimates for much of it.
 
2022-09-27 9:48:16 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-09-27 9:55:41 AM  

CastIronStove: ArcadianRefugee: Muta: ArcadianRefugee: Muta: leeksfromchichis: Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.

He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.

True but the factors his equation considers seem on point.  What do you think should be added?

An actual number would be nice.

Is this a BS equation because there aren't enough numbers?


[Fark user image image 402x76]

a^2 + b^2 = c^2 didn't have any numbers, but numbers can easily be assigned as we know (can easily measure) things like "a" and "b".

*cough* 2 *cough*


You know what I meant.  :-P
 
2022-09-27 10:01:30 AM  

leeksfromchichis: HotWingConspiracy:

Bucks

The star costs extra


You really landed the plane here, nice work.
 
2022-09-27 10:43:50 AM  

HotWingConspiracy: leeksfromchichis: HotWingConspiracy:

Bucks

The star costs extra

You really landed the plane here, nice work.


Call me Leekspad McQuack
 
2022-09-27 12:02:11 PM  
They've been here lotsa times and know all about us.
They gotta be in stealth-mode since they're bending the rules.
Their books say we're still quarantined, as warlike and un-evolved.

i.imgur.comView Full Size
 
2022-09-27 1:51:48 PM  
It's not so much what does 'N' equal with those variables, it's the seeming improbability that N = 1.
 
2022-09-27 11:08:49 PM  

Greymalkin: Keeping in mind that an intelligent space faring civilisation we can't communicate with effectively doesn't exist for any useful purposes.


The same could be applied to any number of things (Gods, ghosts, etc.) but people believe in them anyway.
 
2022-09-28 1:35:02 AM  

trialpha: Greymalkin: Keeping in mind that an intelligent space faring civilisation we can't communicate with effectively doesn't exist for any useful purposes.

The same could be applied to any number of things (Gods, ghosts, etc.) but people believe in them anyway.


Thomas Aquinas questioned how many angels can fit on the head of a pin.

Much Science. Very Maths.
 
2022-09-28 3:21:16 AM  

mononymous: trialpha: Greymalkin: Keeping in mind that an intelligent space faring civilisation we can't communicate with effectively doesn't exist for any useful purposes.

The same could be applied to any number of things (Gods, ghosts, etc.) but people believe in them anyway.

Thomas Aquinas questioned how many angels can fit on the head of a pin.

Much Science. Very Maths.


If its an inverted pyramid with a single foot on the head of a pin, i would say infinite angels can fit on the head of a pin
 
2022-09-28 4:41:42 AM  

Muta: ArcadianRefugee: Muta: leeksfromchichis: Colonel_Angus: Concrete Donkey: The drake equation is dumb as fark.

And yet Frank Drake is revered, and you're just some dipsh*t posting on Fark.

He did other shiat.  The "equation" was just some bullshiat over lunch and most of the variables are logically impossible to even begin to tare in.

True but the factors his equation considers seem on point.  What do you think should be added?

An actual number would be nice.

Is this a BS equation because there aren't enough numbers?


[Fark user image 402x76]


Well, if you don't define any of the variables and can never assign any values to them?

Yes. That's just a string of mathematical operations and undefined variables.

After digging (because it felt vaguely familiar) I now realize that it's the way people commonly write the Navier-Stokes equation, but you haven't stated that's what you're using it as--nor have you defined the variables. So it could be something completely different!

(See: How there are at least 3 different notations/symbols used in undergrad textbooks for Impulse, depending on which publisher you use. I vaguely recall different textbooks used different symbols for potential energy, as well.)
 
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