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(Twitter)   Pop quiz, hotshot. You get one choice. Choose wisely   (twitter.com) divider line
    More: Stupid, shot  
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584 clicks; posted to Discussion » and Main » on 17 Aug 2022 at 12:35 PM (7 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



74 Comments     (+0 »)
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2022-08-17 8:48:47 AM  
Original Tweet:

 
2022-08-17 8:53:19 AM  
Always go with a sure thing. A million would suit me nicely.
 
2022-08-17 8:54:26 AM  
I'd be perfectly happy with $1 million.  Red button for me, thanks!
 
2022-08-17 8:56:35 AM  
A million bucks would be life altering and I have never been fond of gambling.
 
2022-08-17 8:56:58 AM  
GREEN - this is why I'm poor.
 
2022-08-17 9:01:31 AM  
The red button for me.....
 
2022-08-17 9:02:52 AM  
Hm.... the rules don't say you can only push the button once.

( hammers the red button 49 more times )
 
2022-08-17 9:04:56 AM  

bloobeary: Hm.... the rules don't say you can only push the button once.

( hammers the red button 49 more times )


"You only have one button press"

People.  I swear.
 
2022-08-17 9:08:33 AM  

WickerNipple: bloobeary: Hm.... the rules don't say you can only push the button once.

( hammers the red button 49 more times )

"You only have one button press"

People.  I swear.


I'm a Sovereign Citizen so I get one press and my legal person gets a press.

/Don't taze me....
 
2022-08-17 9:10:13 AM  

WickerNipple: "You only have one button press"

People.  I swear.


I'm only pressing one button. Still technically within the rules.
 
2022-08-17 9:10:37 AM  

bloobeary: Always go with a sure thing. A million would suit me nicely.


I'd think the opposite. One million wouldn't make a big difference to my life, so I might as well risk it for a decent chance to get fifty.
 
2022-08-17 9:41:09 AM  
This is skewed by the fact that even the lower choice is a huge amount of money so people settling for that choice still "win".

Do the same scenario with $100 vs $5000 and see how people feel.

It's a 50 to 1 payout with 2 to 1 odds.  The poker player in me is taking that bet every single time.
 
2022-08-17 9:48:30 AM  
50%. IF I lose I'll just pretend it never happened. Still need to work with only $1 million. No so with $50 million.
 
2022-08-17 9:58:52 AM  
I would think the answer to this would depend a great deal on how financially secure you already are.  I'd take the sure thing in a heartbeat because I'm very financially insecure.  But if I already had a few mil in the bank and wasn't worried about bills and rent and stuff, I'd be more inclined to chance it with the green button.
 
2022-08-17 10:06:30 AM  

WickerNipple: bloobeary: Hm.... the rules don't say you can only push the button once.

( hammers the red button 49 more times )

"You only have one button press"

People.  I swear.


That explains why he's poor.
 
2022-08-17 10:31:43 AM  
The years I spent living paycheck to paycheck: red button every time.
Now that I finally have a bit of financial security: green button all the way. Those are some damn fine odds/payout.

Though I'd want clarification about the green button's lack of the description "instant" that the red one has. With my luck I'd win, and the money would only be awarded upon my eventual death or something.
 
2022-08-17 10:36:32 AM  
How much do I get if I shoot the hostage?
 
2022-08-17 10:46:22 AM  
100% chance at $1M = Net present value of $1M

50% chance at $50M is a NPV of $25M
 
2022-08-17 10:54:06 AM  
Yeah, I'mma just aim for the large group of people tied to the tracks.  F it.
 
2022-08-17 10:55:12 AM  
Also:  red button.

I can wisely invest $1M.  Can't do jack shiat with $0 if I lose the coin toss.
 
2022-08-17 11:03:43 AM  
horrible example of "mathematics"

same math problem with $1 and $50 and everyone picks the 50/50 option

you're really just asking, Are you comfortable with losing X at a 50% chance of X*50
 
2022-08-17 11:05:51 AM  

Tr0mBoNe: How much do I get if I shoot the hostage?


You get a lousy gold watch.
 
2022-08-17 11:08:23 AM  
Red button for a mil, not nearly as much as it used to be, but house paid off, new cars, and a retirement fund would be a godsend

Also money for a 10 year delayed honeymoon
 
2022-08-17 11:19:31 AM  
Do you know who else liked Red Buttons?

media-amazon.comView Full Size


Yup you guessed it, history's biggest monster...PETE'S DRAGON.
 
2022-08-17 11:27:40 AM  

bloobeary: Always go with a sure thing. A million would suit me nicely.


Exactly. $1 million (assuming no taxes) into a Vanguard fund could easily provide $50k a year in additional income or just leave it and its probably enough to retire on in 10-20 years on its own, unless your dream is a life of private jet level wealth.
 
2022-08-17 11:59:03 AM  
$1 million. You are guaranteed to have it.
 
2022-08-17 12:39:30 PM  
Get a couple friends and everyone swears to split winnings. Push the 50% each
 
2022-08-17 12:41:01 PM  
The $1 million wouldn't even buy a house in Vancouver.
 
HFK
2022-08-17 12:43:07 PM  

baka-san: Red button for a mil, not nearly as much as it used to be, but house paid off, new cars, and a retirement fund would be a godsend

Also money for a 10 year delayed honeymoon


I thought I was the only one. Been married 10 years this past May and still haven't had a honeymoon.

Red all the way in this scenario for me. Hell, 1/10 of that would set me up very nicely.
 
2022-08-17 12:43:52 PM  
The obvious answer is neither. Who is giving out this kind of money and why? What are they getting for it? Best case is this is some sort of Faustian bargain. Worst case you end up in one of Trump's files forced to do his bidding
 
2022-08-17 12:47:20 PM  
Funny, I was just looking at this version, via a BoingBoing link...

https://twitter.com/pickover/status/1559924948361166850?s=20&t=F9wVNKSSvoYiTYEoIJ_wZg



Mathematics.

You are only allowed to press TWO times - to receive a potentially nice monetary award. Which buttons do you press, and in what order? pic.twitter.com/6DqU2OrZ4y
- Cliff Pickover (@pickover) August 17, 2022
 
2022-08-17 12:48:19 PM  
I don't understand the point of this. The buttons represent two different things.
 
2022-08-17 12:48:49 PM  

Megathuma: The years I spent living paycheck to paycheck: red button every time.
Now that I finally have a bit of financial security: green button all the way. Those are some damn fine odds/payout.

Though I'd want clarification about the green button's lack of the description "instant" that the red one has. With my luck I'd win, and the money would only be awarded upon my eventual death or something.


I'm now imagining the green button just hooked up to a withered monkey's paw.
 
2022-08-17 12:52:32 PM  
This isn't a math question, they aren't asking which one has the higher expected value. It's a question of risk tolerance.
 
2022-08-17 12:53:27 PM  
Red for sure


I'd kill myself if I got 50million.

I'd take up some stupid dangerous hobby like running with the bulls if I had too much money.
 
2022-08-17 12:55:27 PM  
Easy.  $1M won't change my life much, but it's enough that my ex might try to drag me into court and claim a share.  Not worth the headache.    $50M?  Yeah, I can pay somebody else to worry about that, or just settle quickly, and still have plenty left.

Also, I'm not actually losing anything in either scenario.  If I hit the green button and lose, I'm exactly as well off as I am today.  It would be a lot more interesting if it were a choice between a guaranteed +$1M, and a 50-50 chance of either winning $50M or going $1M into debt.
 
2022-08-17 12:55:36 PM  
Well, Neo?
 
2022-08-17 12:55:49 PM  
I'd take the $1 million. It would be enough for me to yeet myself out of my job and retire.
 
2022-08-17 1:02:53 PM  

Gramma: I'd take the $1 million. It would be enough for me to yeet myself out of my job and retire.


And visit Farkers?
 
2022-08-17 1:07:53 PM  
If that green button random number generator is tied to a video game style random number generator, a la XCom, then it really isn't 50%. More like 22%, or something.
 
2022-08-17 1:10:53 PM  

vudukungfu: Gramma: I'd take the $1 million. It would be enough for me to yeet myself out of my job and retire.

And visit Farkers?


I would love to do that!  Maybe travel around to Fark parties!  Just bought a tiny RV so that I can camp without going through the agony that is setting up and taking down a tent.
 
2022-08-17 1:13:22 PM  
What if I read the rules very obtusely.  A "button press" is the action of pressing a button, so I get one button pressing action?  Ok:
Fark user imageView Full Size


/guaranteed $1 million for sure
 
2022-08-17 1:15:06 PM  
Amateurs.  I auction off a chance at the green button with a starting bid of 1 million.  It will probably get up to at least 10. And if you get a couple egotists like Bezos and Musk competing and determined not to let the other one win it could wind up at 100 million.
 
2022-08-17 1:15:25 PM  
Unlimited bacon and no games? (Original)
Youtube SV6NJ6PcGBs
 
2022-08-17 1:23:06 PM  
Guaranteed million, easy.
 
2022-08-17 1:35:51 PM  

ralanprod: This is skewed by the fact that even the lower choice is a huge amount of money so people settling for that choice still "win".

Do the same scenario with $100 vs $5000 and see how people feel.

It's a 50 to 1 payout with 2 to 1 odds.  The poker player in me is taking that bet every single time.


That's the point of a non-linear utility function.  Even if $1M might not be "fark you money", it is sufficiently life changing that plenty of people will mash that button.

The fundamental question is:

How much will $1M change your life?
How much will $50M change you life?

Is the second improvement more that twice the improvement than the first?

/it is painfully expensive to be poor in the USA
//the $1M generally immediately puts you out of the "expensive to be poor" class
///the $50M is more in the "how in the world do I spend all this money" class
/[lottery evidence shows that often neither change much, and the money gets blown either way.  Gamblers might be smart to enjoy blowing the $50M just as fast, because you know they are going to do it.]
 
2022-08-17 1:40:05 PM  

Munden: horrible example of "mathematics"

same math problem with $1 and $50 and everyone picks the 50/50 option

you're really just asking, Are you comfortable with losing X at a 50% chance of X*50


You're also asking "What do you value?"  If you value money for its own sake, you'll go for the 50.  If you value the things money can DO for you, you'll go for the surefire million, pay off all of your debt and set aside a decent chuck for investments while you continue to work while never worrying about what happens if you get laid off.
 
2022-08-17 1:51:55 PM  

bloobeary: Always go with a sure thing. A million would suit me nicely.


At my age the red button will work just fine
 
2022-08-17 1:54:10 PM  

WickerNipple: bloobeary: Hm.... the rules don't say you can only push the button once.

( hammers the red button 49 more times )

"You only have one button press"

People.  I swear.


Hey, it's a math question, not a reading question.
 
2022-08-17 2:00:06 PM  

yet_another_wumpus: Is the second improvement more that twice the improvement than the first?


A $50 million investment could easily turn into a $1 million annual return with little effort. You can make a $1 million difference in your life the first year, then make a $1 million difference in someone else's life the next year, and then again the year after that. Set up a trust and it'll keep going well after you're dead.
 
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