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(CNN)   What if the economic numbers threw a Recession party and everyone was too busy working to show up?   (cnn.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, Inflation, Monetary policy, real risk, gasoline prices, Late-2000s recession, next year, yield curve, Mark Zandi  
•       •       •

2593 clicks; posted to Business » and Politics » on 15 Aug 2022 at 7:46 PM (7 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-08-15 5:42:52 PM  
The point of the feds actions is to cause a recession not prevent one. Remember rising labor costs is something this country has gone to war with itself over in the past.
 
2022-08-15 7:34:24 PM  
Keep on wishing Republilcons.
 
2022-08-15 7:49:33 PM  
Dark Brandon is the storm.
Prepare to have your guns taken, your Bibles taken, and your children forced to learn the ghey.
 
2022-08-15 7:50:06 PM  

edmo: Keep on wishing Republilcons.


I'm sure Fox News is doing their best to get the "economy is in shambles" message out there. Thankfully the only people at sitting at home all day watching it are either old dumbasses who no longer work or dumbasses to dumb get a job in period of record low unemployment.  Those are the people that swing elections.
 
2022-08-15 7:50:17 PM  
What if the oligarch-owned media desperately tried to sell us a recession to put the GOP back in power, and nobody bought it?
 
2022-08-15 7:50:40 PM  
Recession my ass.

I literally have too much work forecasted for my firm to handle - so I am cashing in and shutting the doors end of this year.
 
2022-08-15 7:54:43 PM  
Recession are 95% caused by everyone panicking simultaneously.

/ It's all made up anyway
 
2022-08-15 7:55:17 PM  
Yeah, count me as one of the people who didn't predict this.

As an example, I'm having a hard time reconciling numbers for the last two periods. Nobody is worried since they're up on top of up, but my best guess is that the vacation season ended and the hard pause on inflation threw everything back into the same normal level as the last two years.

What a pain in the ass to have to adjust and explain this in reports.
 
2022-08-15 7:55:23 PM  

Northern: Dark Brandon is the storm.
Prepare to have your guns taken, your Bibles taken, and your children forced to learn the ghey.


Yes, Christians are very upset not to have a Christian like Donald Trump in office because he is a devout follower of Jesus' teachings.
 
2022-08-15 7:58:22 PM  

king of vegas: Northern: Dark Brandon is the storm.
Prepare to have your guns taken, your Bibles taken, and your children forced to learn the ghey.

Yes, Christians are very upset not to have a Christian like Donald Trump in office because he is a devout follower of Jesus' teachings.


They just want to have the evangelical end of the world. They already put the mark of the beast on their foreheads in the form of Red Hats.
 
2022-08-15 8:01:39 PM  

one of Ripley's Bad Guys: Recession my ass.

I literally have too much work forecasted for my firm to handle - so I am cashing in and shutting the doors end of this year.


What?
 
2022-08-15 8:03:18 PM  
Meh, the Inflation Reduction Act basically turned the money printers back on. (As if they ever turned off .. as if there was an actual hand cranked money printer )

Gotta keep the economy going! If you're not spending money, the government will spend it for you!

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-08-15 8:03:21 PM  
I think COVID threw a curveball in what is a traditional "recession". You don't hear much about reduced demand and job cuts like we did back in 2020 when COVID farked everything up.
 
2022-08-15 8:04:05 PM  

king of vegas: Northern: Dark Brandon is the storm.
Prepare to have your guns taken, your Bibles taken, and your children forced to learn the ghey.

Yes, Christians are very upset not to have a Christian like Donald Trump in office because he is a devout follower of Jesus' teachings.


He does do an excellent job of illustrating the teachings of Jesus, in his own special way.

images.squarespace-cdn.comView Full Size
 
2022-08-15 8:04:56 PM  
The economy experienced long-covid symptoms --- mostly supply chain issues impacting an economy that had pushed too far into "optimizations" around JustInTime Delivery schemes. That's a scheme that is very sensitive to even minor interruptions in supply chains.

It takes time for the economy to adjust. Two years ago, we injected multiple trillions of dollars (as did other countries) to head off a predicted recession and it at least delayed it. Then, that spigot was turned off by "economists" who have a one-track mind about debt and money supply. Still, world economies are adjusting as they can in a predictably chaotic manner characteristic of mostly free-range capitalism.

There will be math, not just slogans.
 
2022-08-15 8:05:17 PM  
You're doomed!   DOOOOOOOOOMED!
 
2022-08-15 8:05:20 PM  
Right wingers so desperately wanted a recession that they tried to will one into being with tots and pears.
 
2022-08-15 8:07:18 PM  

Rapmaster2000: You're doomed!   DOOOOOOOOOMED!


Feast On The Goo
Youtube RzybAS7zltE
 
2022-08-15 8:09:43 PM  

hugadarn: The point of the feds actions is to cause a recession not prevent one. Remember rising labor costs is something this country has gone to war with itself over in the past.


Corporate profits are far out pacing the pittance of any rise in labor costs. It's a sick money grab to keep the workers in check.
 
2022-08-15 8:10:26 PM  
It's a recession in absolute terms, especially looking at the numbers overall. What's been really interesting is how the losses have been distributed. The fact that we're seeing real inertial wage inflation for the first time in decades is very telling.

It's sort of like how we previously spent 20 years with record economic growth and constantly expanding profits while everyone else was falling deeper and deeper into a downward spiral of debt, insecurity and downward mobility. We had a boom period on paper, but MOST people didn't benefit from it. Now we have a recession -- literally, a period of economic contraction -- and most people aren't harmed by it, or even benefitting.

One man's disaster is another man's dessert.
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-08-15 8:11:10 PM  

one of Ripley's Bad Guys: Recession my ass.

I literally have too much work forecasted for my firm to handle - so I am cashing in and shutting the doors end of this year.


I honestly wonder if we've even bothered trying to keep some of our clients from pre-Covid days. I mean, it *could* be that we're passing them off to other districts and not noticing because we're so flat-out busy all the time but I can't see that from where I am. Not that I even know how we could keep some of them, as we're down at least 50% in terms of staffing in our region right now....
 
2022-08-15 8:11:46 PM  
i.etsystatic.comView Full Size
 
2022-08-15 8:13:21 PM  

Wine Sipping Elitist: Meh, the Inflation Reduction Act basically turned the money printers back on. (As if they ever turned off .. as if there was an actual hand cranked money printer )

Gotta keep the economy going! If you're not spending money, the government will spend it for you!

[Fark user image 425x238] [View Full Size image _x_]


They absolutely turned off the money printer in 2021 after huge unfunded spending in 2020. And the inflation reduction act isn't turning on the money printer. It was required to be revenue neutral to qualify under reconciliation.
 
2022-08-15 8:13:35 PM  
Should the GOP gain majority control over a chamber in Congress, they will shut the government down and cripple the US economy.

If you don't believe that, then explain why they're defending TFG's nuclear secret espionage behavior.
 
2022-08-15 8:15:19 PM  
FTA: Inflation cooled off

From 11% to 9.8%.

The relatively speaking is doing an army's worth of work.

Meanwhile, I noticed that food prices at my grocery store are still skyrocketing.
 
2022-08-15 8:15:29 PM  
The recession reduction act has worked faster than anyone could imagine!
 
2022-08-15 8:17:27 PM  
Recession/inflation; it was/is corporate greed all along.
Always was, always will be.
 
2022-08-15 8:18:16 PM  

Wine Sipping Elitist: Meh, the Inflation Reduction Act basically turned the money printers back on. (As if they ever turned off .. as if there was an actual hand cranked money printer )

Gotta keep the economy going! If you're not spending money, the government will spend it for you!

[Fark user image image 425x238]


The fed isn't the only institution that creates money. Banks create an enormous amount of money.
 
2022-08-15 8:18:22 PM  

wademh: Wine Sipping Elitist: Meh, the Inflation Reduction Act basically turned the money printers back on. (As if they ever turned off .. as if there was an actual hand cranked money printer )

Gotta keep the economy going! If you're not spending money, the government will spend it for you!

[Fark user image 425x238] [View Full Size image _x_]

They absolutely turned off the money printer in 2021 after huge unfunded spending in 2020. And the inflation reduction act isn't turning on the money printer. It was required to be revenue neutral to qualify under reconciliation.


Shhh, he has a narrative to push, you're stifling his propaganda with facts, he has NO use for that...
 
2022-08-15 8:20:58 PM  
I love these threads. All the Fark economists get to really strut their stuff about money printing and fiat and all the other things they don't understand. DMT JOE ROGAN ELON MUSK TO THE MOOOOOOOON
 
2022-08-15 8:20:59 PM  

misanthropicsob: FTA: Inflation cooled off

From 11% to 9.8%.

The relatively speaking is doing an army's worth of work.

Meanwhile, I noticed that food prices at my grocery store are still skyrocketing.


You have a child's understanding of everything.

*pats on the head* run along now child
 
2022-08-15 8:21:40 PM  
Gee I wonder if Dems should do something about corporate greed and stagnant wages, before the election.
 
2022-08-15 8:22:01 PM  

misanthropicsob: FTA: Inflation cooled off

From 11% to 9.8%.

The relatively speaking is doing an army's worth of work.

Meanwhile, I noticed that food prices at my grocery store are still skyrocketing.


Doubling!
 
2022-08-15 8:22:15 PM  

zeroman987: misanthropicsob: FTA: Inflation cooled off

From 11% to 9.8%.

The relatively speaking is doing an army's worth of work.

Meanwhile, I noticed that food prices at my grocery store are still skyrocketing.

You have a child's understanding of everything.

*pats on the head* run along now child


Really does. Sad.
 
2022-08-15 8:24:10 PM  

misanthropicsob: FTA: Inflation cooled off

From 11% to 9.8%.

The relatively speaking is doing an army's worth of work.

Meanwhile, I noticed that food prices at my grocery store are still skyrocketing.


Here's a CNN article about why food prices are still rising and it claims the feds can do nothing about it.

Part of that is due to the Conservation Reserve Project, which pays farmers not to grow crops. Joe Biden just increased the annual money for CRP in December 2021. In times of high inflation, we should be incentivizing farmers to grow more crops and bring down prices (especially if the fed is refusing to increase wages).
 
2022-08-15 8:24:30 PM  

misanthropicsob: misanthropicsob: FTA: Inflation cooled off

From 11% to 9.8%.

The relatively speaking is doing an army's worth of work.

Meanwhile, I noticed that food prices at my grocery store are still skyrocketing.

Here's a CNN article about why food prices are still rising and it claims the feds can do nothing about it.

Part of that is due to the Conservation Reserve Project, which pays farmers not to grow crops. Joe Biden just increased the annual money for CRP in December 2021. In times of high inflation, we should be incentivizing farmers to grow more crops and bring down prices (especially if the fed is refusing to increase wages).


Sorry, I forgot the link: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/08/10/business/grocery-prices/index.html
 
2022-08-15 8:25:12 PM  
If it happens and we level off inflation without a recession? Or even just a mild 2-quarters & done recession? It'll be an incredible coup.

The Fed, SecTreasury Yellen, and the administration will completely deserve piles of credit that they'll never actually get for it. It's far harder to implement a soft landing than it is to stop inflation early.
 
2022-08-15 8:27:39 PM  

misanthropicsob: misanthropicsob: misanthropicsob: FTA: Inflation cooled off

From 11% to 9.8%.

The relatively speaking is doing an army's worth of work.

Meanwhile, I noticed that food prices at my grocery store are still skyrocketing.

Here's a CNN article about why food prices are still rising and it claims the feds can do nothing about it.

Part of that is due to the Conservation Reserve Project, which pays farmers not to grow crops. Joe Biden just increased the annual money for CRP in December 2021. In times of high inflation, we should be incentivizing farmers to grow more crops and bring down prices (especially if the fed is refusing to increase wages).

Sorry, I forgot the link: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/08/10/business/grocery-prices/index.html


Everyone approves of welfare to farmers because they are white.
 
2022-08-15 8:29:23 PM  

akallen404: Now we have a recession -- literally, a period of economic contraction -- and most people aren't harmed by it, or even benefitting.


Are you farking serious?

/talk about being completely removed from reality of at least 1/3 of the freaking population
//you're clearly not a renter and you're clearly doing far better than most, income-wise
///to say nothing about the retired and disabled communities that are getting pummelled by both rents and food costs
 
2022-08-15 8:31:16 PM  
Thousands of people were laid off today at Peloton. Thousands more will be laid off this week and next and the one after that at all number of companies. The headline numbers still look quite good but man oh man...you can only lay off so many knowledge workers before it starts to impact hiring and wages in that sector. Feels a bit like the 2000 recession all over again...mild but lingering.
 
2022-08-15 8:31:28 PM  

Wine Sipping Elitist: Meh, the Inflation Reduction Act basically turned the money printers back on. (As if they ever turned off .. as if there was an actual hand cranked money printer )

Gotta keep the economy going! If you're not spending money, the government will spend it for you!

[Fark user image 425x238] [View Full Size image _x_]


How would "printing more money" reduce inflation? If you want to reduce inflation, you need to take money out of circulation.
 
2022-08-15 8:31:40 PM  

gameshowhost: Gee I wonder if Dems should do something about corporate greed and stagnant wages, before the election.


Well, there is now a minimum income tax on corporations - FINALLY - and they are taxing stock buybacks.

And if wages suck where you live your state could always just raise its minimum wage but that would take some effort on the part of local voters to push for it.

biatching online about the only party to get anything done that doesn't directly benefit the folks at the top is just so much easier, isn't it?
 
2022-08-15 8:33:17 PM  

akallen404: It's a recession in absolute terms, especially looking at the numbers overall. What's been really interesting is how the losses have been distributed. The fact that we're seeing real inertial wage inflation for the first time in decades is very telling.

It's sort of like how we previously spent 20 years with record economic growth and constantly expanding profits while everyone else was falling deeper and deeper into a downward spiral of debt, insecurity and downward mobility. We had a boom period on paper, but MOST people didn't benefit from it. Now we have a recession -- literally, a period of economic contraction -- and most people aren't harmed by it, or even benefitting.

One man's disaster is another man's dessert.
[Fark user image image 425x239]


I mean sure. Ignoring the cost of food and housing. And labor.

I know lots of people who still have the same careers (even if they changed jobs) and live in the same place, but can't afford the lifestyle they used to.
 
2022-08-15 8:34:21 PM  

Gin Buddy: gameshowhost: Gee I wonder if Dems should do something about corporate greed and stagnant wages, before the election.

Well, there is now a minimum income tax on corporations - FINALLY - and they are taxing stock buybacks.

And if wages suck where you live your state could always just raise its minimum wage but that would take some effort on the part of local voters to push for it.

biatching online about the only party to get anything done that doesn't directly benefit the folks at the top is just so much easier, isn't it?


jesus farking christ are people like you absolutely out of the reality loop
 
2022-08-15 8:36:39 PM  

misanthropicsob: misanthropicsob: FTA: Inflation cooled off

From 11% to 9.8%.

The relatively speaking is doing an army's worth of work.

Meanwhile, I noticed that food prices at my grocery store are still skyrocketing.

Here's a CNN article about why food prices are still rising and it claims the feds can do nothing about it.

Part of that is due to the Conservation Reserve Project, which pays farmers not to grow crops. Joe Biden just increased the annual money for CRP in December 2021. In times of high inflation, we should be incentivizing farmers to grow more crops and bring down prices (especially if the fed is refusing to increase wages).


Food prices are not "still rising". It has plateaued and has been stable (or occasionally dropped, depending on when you go by, which items are reaching perishable state, etc.). Since the start of the pandemic, prices for some items have gone up, but those price points have reached a stasis since at least March of this year. Some items have gone down in price since hitting a plateau in June, but that can be more due to seasonal availability versus a general trend of price dropping. Today I bought a pack of six teeny-tiny avocados for $3.99. 3 weeks ago, it was priced around $5.50.
 
2022-08-15 8:38:45 PM  

hugadarn: The point of the feds actions is to cause a recession not prevent one. Remember rising labor costs is something this country has gone to war with itself over in the past.


Yes, my understanding was that it was to curb inflation not prevent recession.


Mrtraveler01: I think COVID threw a curveball in what is a traditional "recession". You don't hear much about reduced demand and job cuts like we did back in 2020 when COVID farked everything up.


Another that is making this difficult to map may be that 2022 marks the year that 50% of baby boomers retire, which helps explain why we don't hear about job cuts etc. But the only person I hear talking about this is Peter Zeihan.
 
2022-08-15 8:40:08 PM  
Hard to lay off people when you are chronically understaffed.
 
2022-08-15 8:45:04 PM  

dericwater: misanthropicsob: misanthropicsob: FTA: Inflation cooled off

From 11% to 9.8%.

The relatively speaking is doing an army's worth of work.

Meanwhile, I noticed that food prices at my grocery store are still skyrocketing.

Here's a CNN article about why food prices are still rising and it claims the feds can do nothing about it.

Part of that is due to the Conservation Reserve Project, which pays farmers not to grow crops. Joe Biden just increased the annual money for CRP in December 2021. In times of high inflation, we should be incentivizing farmers to grow more crops and bring down prices (especially if the fed is refusing to increase wages).

Food prices are not "still rising". It has plateaued and has been stable (or occasionally dropped, depending on when you go by, which items are reaching perishable state, etc.). Since the start of the pandemic, prices for some items have gone up, but those price points have reached a stasis since at least March of this year. Some items have gone down in price since hitting a plateau in June, but that can be more due to seasonal availability versus a general trend of price dropping. Today I bought a pack of six teeny-tiny avocados for $3.99. 3 weeks ago, it was priced around $5.50.


Umm... Maybe? Here is the price of beef, according to BLS
Fark user imageView Full Size

https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/averageretailfoodandenergyprices_usandmidwest_table.htm

There is always some noise but looking at the month over month numbers, the general trend sure seems to be going up still.
 
2022-08-15 8:46:08 PM  
Doesn't this always happen when the Ds are at bat? They try to get the budget under control, the 1% get called to task for a while, and then everyone looks for new loopholes and the Rs get enough power to enact them

/rinse, repeat
 
2022-08-15 8:50:53 PM  

Shakin_Haitian: Wine Sipping Elitist: Meh, the Inflation Reduction Act basically turned the money printers back on. (As if they ever turned off .. as if there was an actual hand cranked money printer )

Gotta keep the economy going! If you're not spending money, the government will spend it for you!

[Fark user image image 425x238]

The fed isn't the only institution that creates money. Banks create an enormous amount of money.


Banks create most of the money.
 
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