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(Slate)   Federal regulators want to kill Predictit, the website that lets you bet on political outcomes. Which seems harsh, considering they let other scams like crypto, National Collector's Mint coins, and Tesla keep operating   (slate.com) divider line
    More: Sad, Futures contract, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, own market, Economics, PredictIt's first year, CFTC's purview, political events, federal regulators  
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775 clicks; posted to Politics » and Main » on 15 Aug 2022 at 11:35 AM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



52 Comments     (+0 »)
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2022-08-15 9:49:17 AM  
PredictIt is fun (though I haven't used it in a long while) and has very interesting applications, but this person's suggestions are powerful dumb.

"First, PredictIt should update its fee structure. Currently, the company charges a 10 percent fee on the net profits of any given trade. This means that a user that wins one bet at 50 cents but loses another at the same price will wind up losing money, since they will pay a fee in the market they won. This should be changed to instead be a dynamic fee on 10 percent of a user's overall net winnings across all markets at any given time."

Easy to say, much harder to implement. When is the fee assessed? It can't be an ever-floating number, because it needs to actually come out of your account at some point. So if over a year you have a net profit that's charged, but the next day you lose a boatload on a bat bet, you have the same problem as the surcharge on winning bets. Plus, if there is a known time of assessment, people can use that knowledge to shift their earnings and losses as kinds of write-offs. You have a longshot that you are pretty sure is going to lose coming due, you can shift your bets so that if it does it negates the profits on other bets. If it hits you're happy, and if it loses you offset the fees on other investments you've made.

"Second, PredictIt should be allowed to increase the current $850 limit that a user can wager in a given market... If an accredited investor can invest $100,000 in a risky startup, they should be able to use that money on PredictIt too. This will allow the "superforecasters" who add the most knowledge to have a greater impact on markets."

And will in no way be used to skew the market, manipulate it, or change the makeup of the predictive forces to instead reflect more complicated speculation like pump-and-dump schemes on a particular questions.

"Third, PredictIt should have a mechanism to automatically ban any user who loses more than a certain amount of money, perhaps $10,000. Such a limit would not impact casual users, but would provide protection for those who develop gambling addictions (which is indeed a major problem on sports betting sites like DraftKings and FanDuel)."

This is literally the opposite of point 2. If a "superuser" put $100k on multiple markets, one will surely fail, just because nobody is ever always right. That automatically bans all large-scale betting in short order. You can't have both.

"Finally, PredictIt should be allowed to offer corporations participation in its markets, for the purpose of hedging political risk. An oil company may want to bet in favor of the election victory of a candidate who has pledged to tighten environmental protections."

No. Just... no.
 
2022-08-15 10:26:13 AM  
First, PredictIt should update its fee structure. Currently, the company charges a 10 percent fee on the net profits of any given trade. This means that a user that wins one bet at 50 cents but loses another at the same price will wind up losing money, since they will pay a fee in the market they won. This should be changed to instead be a dynamic fee on 10 percent of a user's overall net winnings across all markets at any given time.

So you want gambling without the vig.  Ok, then.
 
2022-08-15 11:10:21 AM  
Predictits shouldn't even be on the list, man!
 
2022-08-15 11:37:42 AM  
predicated on tit, mmm
 
2022-08-15 11:39:03 AM  
Now we know why Manchin and Sinema keep tanking legislation in turns.
 
2022-08-15 11:40:48 AM  
Unlicensed* gambling! The horror. And unlike the stock market or crypto, the bets are strictly limited. That's so unfair.

*Uncle isn't getting its cut.
 
2022-08-15 11:41:23 AM  
Author sounds like he thinks "predictit" is an investment vehicle.

I wonder what they had to say about Wall Street Bets.  Or the causes of the Great Recession.
 
2022-08-15 11:43:19 AM  
Dork I say predicate or predicked-tit?
 
2022-08-15 11:44:02 AM  
Predict tit is what every adolescent boy tries to do when he simultaneously discovers boobies and his inablity to summon up x-ray vision around the ladies.
 
2022-08-15 11:45:09 AM  
If I can't buy puts on a politican's favoriability derivative am I really investing?
 
2022-08-15 11:45:25 AM  

BeesNuts: Author sounds like he thinks "predictit" is an investment vehicle.

I wonder what they had to say about Wall Street Bets.  Or the causes of the Great Recession.


Aaaaaand, apparently nothing.  This is the only article by this author I can find *on the internet*.
 
2022-08-15 11:47:38 AM  
I've not dabbled? Is it different than poolitics "the parimutuel political blog" back in the day, besides scale?
 
2022-08-15 11:47:56 AM  
Some folks have way too much money.
 
2022-08-15 11:48:57 AM  
Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.
 
2022-08-15 11:49:18 AM  
They should get rid of all the election polls. That would help more.
 
2022-08-15 11:50:29 AM  
Is it because politicians and their staff can't bet on themselves?
 
2022-08-15 11:52:39 AM  

BeesNuts: BeesNuts: Author sounds like he thinks "predictit" is an investment vehicle.

I wonder what they had to say about Wall Street Bets.  Or the causes of the Great Recession.

Aaaaaand, apparently nothing.  This is the only article by this author I can find *on the internet*.


I think this is the same guy
http://www.thetower.org/author/bernard-stanford/
 
2022-08-15 11:52:47 AM  
Can we just bring back online poker?  I want to play tournaments with 5000 people in them for 5 dollars again.

This nanny state shiat is bs.
 
2022-08-15 11:52:52 AM  

Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.


Welcome to fark. It's just a dig at the fan club. But the stock price was a scam. They were like a grand a share even though they weren't making any money.
 
2022-08-15 11:54:23 AM  
I mean I get that Elon is a f'n douche and I hope he goes broke and is penniless but I'm pretty sure tesla isn't a scam. Otherwise I've been driving that scam for the last year and a half. And like him or not, tesla has helped usher in EV and I get that they would have with our without Elon.
 
2022-08-15 11:57:34 AM  

Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.


Tesla is indeed a scam.  Just look up "debunking Elon Musk" on YouTube.
 
2022-08-15 11:59:49 AM  

BeesNuts: Author sounds like he thinks "predictit" is an investment vehicle.

I wonder what they had to say about Wall Street Bets.  Or the causes of the Great Recession.


The thing that makes it a bit different from the vast majority of gambling and a little more like an investment is you can sell and buy shares any time you want all the way until election day.  You're not locked into your initial bet.
 
2022-08-15 11:59:55 AM  

Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.


And then it explodes and locks you inside.
 
2022-08-15 12:00:08 PM  
Get a bookie out of London or Singapore. The British and Asians will take bets on the most random shiat.
 
2022-08-15 12:01:36 PM  
It's "for research" the way Japanese whaling is "for research".
 
2022-08-15 12:02:18 PM  

MrSplifferton: Can we just bring back online poker?  I want to play tournaments with 5000 people in them for 5 dollars again.

This nanny state shiat is bs.


I mean I could just send you five bucks and it would be the same as me playing poker and it wouldn't waste any of my time
 
2022-08-15 12:02:38 PM  

Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.


Ravian is going to crush Tesla.
 
2022-08-15 12:02:38 PM  

Glitchwerks: Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.

Tesla is indeed a scam.  Just look up "debunking Elon Musk" on YouTube.


It's a good video, but what they don't tell you is that Elon Musk's real end game is, by being a Thomas Edison-like inventor-and I absolutely mean that as a slur-and misappropriating Tesla's name, Tesla is now spinning in his grave, which has been hooked up to several turnings, this turning it into a means of cheap reliable power. A f that's the REAL power of Tesla, for you.
 
2022-08-15 12:03:11 PM  
Not to mention the biggest scam of all: the dollar
 
2022-08-15 12:05:04 PM  

Moroning: Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.

Ravian is going to crush Tesla.


Who funnied this?

HAVE YOU SEE THEIR CUTE LITTLE TRUCK!?!
 
2022-08-15 12:05:10 PM  
I got Ted Cruz's gimp mask from a lootbox.
 
2022-08-15 12:07:56 PM  

Moroning: Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.

Ravian is going to crush Tesla.


Rivian?  I like them but I kind of doubt it.  I expect they'll get bought up by one of the big three.

Either way, almost every automaker is releasing EVs now so Tesla's days do look numbered.

If they had someone else in charge besides Musk, they might have been a better company.
 
2022-08-15 12:09:52 PM  

Peter von Nostrand: I mean I get that Elon is a f'n douche and I hope he goes broke and is penniless but I'm pretty sure tesla isn't a scam. Otherwise I've been driving that scam for the last year and a half. And like him or not, tesla has helped usher in EV and I get that they would have with our without Elon.


Yeah I am not a Musk fanboi, but being an engineer I cannot help but be fascinated by Tesla and SpacEx. Although I did find something about Tesla that makes me wary of them. They seem to be the car version of iTunes/Apple Music. It's almost as if like with Apple where you are not buying the music, you are buying the rights to listen to the music, which they can change/modify/remove at any time. Are you buying the car or just the rights to drive it with Tesla?
 
2022-08-15 12:10:09 PM  

Moroning: Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.

Ravian is going to crush Tesla.


Chevy is on the brink of putting a big dent in Tesla's earnings. Equinox EV is going to make the Model 3 into a not-an-option for all the buyers out there who aren't soaking Elon's dirty cork.
 
2022-08-15 12:10:09 PM  

Glitchwerks: Moroning: Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.

Ravian is going to crush Tesla.

Rivian?  I like them but I kind of doubt it.  I expect they'll get bought up by one of the big three.

Either way, almost every automaker is releasing EVs now so Tesla's days do look numbered.

If they had someone else in charge besides Musk, they might have been a better company.


I suspect that is Elons end game. Sell out to a Russian company just for the lulz (which probably isn't legal, at least until the next republican takes the oval office again).
 
2022-08-15 12:11:45 PM  

heavymetal: Peter von Nostrand: I mean I get that Elon is a f'n douche and I hope he goes broke and is penniless but I'm pretty sure tesla isn't a scam. Otherwise I've been driving that scam for the last year and a half. And like him or not, tesla has helped usher in EV and I get that they would have with our without Elon.

Yeah I am not a Musk fanboi, but being an engineer I cannot help but be fascinated by Tesla and SpacEx. Although I did find something about Tesla that makes me wary of them. They seem to be the car version of iTunes/Apple Music. It's almost as if like with Apple where you are not buying the music, you are buying the rights to listen to the music, which they can change/modify/remove at any time. Are you buying the car or just the rights to drive it with Tesla?


Yeah, I saw that, too. I had a shiat experience with them on a factory defect to the point that I've ordered an ID.4. Just waiting to take delivery on it.
 
2022-08-15 12:11:53 PM  
I belonged to a startup in 1999 called PredictIt! that was a wall street and sport semi-betting .com that collapsed hard in 2000. I wonder if there's any relationship.
 
2022-08-15 12:12:29 PM  

MattytheMouse: Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.

And then it explodes and locks you inside.


Fark user imageView Full Size


i promised myself that i wouldn't forget why i farkied you, and ... i've forgotten
 
2022-08-15 12:17:20 PM  

gameshowhost: MattytheMouse: Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.

And then it explodes and locks you inside.

[Fark user image image 415x212]

i promised myself that i wouldn't forget why i farkied you, and ... i've forgotten


I know exactly why lol

By amazing coincidence, we were talking about the Boring Company's hyper loop, and I tried to call it "the shiatty exploding car tunnel," but the fact that I'm just a mouse on a keyboard errored it to "exploding cat tunnel."
 
2022-08-15 12:20:10 PM  
What? Are you kidding me?? Every PAC in America is a casino bet.
 
2022-08-15 12:20:26 PM  
I mean, in theory... couldn't you make 10,000 or so crypto coin for each candidate. Sell them them all for $1 to whoever wants one and make a commitment to buy back only the coins of the winning candidate or side at a value of not less than the total sales minus your 10-20% cut (or whatever) divided by the total coins in circulation for that candidate for up to one year after the win. Then allow the coins to be traded and also "earn" commission on each trade after the initial sale.

Gambling but its just cryptocurrency... you can't help that some coins go to 0 and you are only buying back the "valuable" coins
 
2022-08-15 12:22:56 PM  
I have no idea what a Predictit is, and at this point I'm too afraid to ask.  But if it helps sane people separate MAGAts from their money, I'm all for it!
 
2022-08-15 12:26:23 PM  

Moroning: Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.

GM Ravian is going to crush Tesla.


FIFY
 
2022-08-15 12:29:01 PM  
But voting doesn't matter, right?
 
2022-08-15 12:31:16 PM  

Glitchwerks: Moroning: Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.

Ravian is going to crush Tesla.

Rivian?  I like them but I kind of doubt it.  I expect they'll get bought up by one of the big three.

Either way, almost every automaker is releasing EVs now so Tesla's days do look numbered.

If they had someone else in charge besides Musk, they might have been a better company.


I saw my first Rivian on a semi truck in April and now I see one every day, and I barely drive.  I think the pickup truck was the killer EV app and I have no clue what is taking Tesla so long.
 
2022-08-15 12:34:49 PM  

Rapmaster2000: Glitchwerks: Moroning: Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.

Ravian is going to crush Tesla.

Rivian?  I like them but I kind of doubt it.  I expect they'll get bought up by one of the big three.

Either way, almost every automaker is releasing EVs now so Tesla's days do look numbered.

If they had someone else in charge besides Musk, they might have been a better company.

I saw my first Rivian on a semi truck in April and now I see one every day, and I barely drive.  I think the pickup truck was the killer EV app and I have no clue what is taking Tesla so long.


I do Doordash.  Yesterday I saw a Dozen of them on the road in my 8 hours driving.  In that same time frame I saw one new Tesla.
 
2022-08-15 12:37:50 PM  

BitwiseShift: Predict tit is what every adolescent boy tries to do when he simultaneously discovers boobies and his inablity to summon up x-ray vision around the ladies.


I feel like it's a skill or ability one gets in a rather warped RPG universe
 
2022-08-15 1:01:22 PM  

MattytheMouse: gameshowhost: MattytheMouse: Screaming Candle: Tesla?

That other stuff is nonsense, but I can drive a car.

And then it explodes and locks you inside.

[Fark user image image 415x212]

i promised myself that i wouldn't forget why i farkied you, and ... i've forgotten

I know exactly why lol

By amazing coincidence, we were talking about the Boring Company's hyper loop, and I tried to call it "the shiatty exploding car tunnel," but the fact that I'm just a mouse on a keyboard errored it to "exploding cat tunnel."


ah! ty. lol.
 
2022-08-15 1:06:37 PM  

gameshowhost: i promised myself that i wouldn't forget why i farkied you, and ... i've forgotten


When farkying someone, many users seeming find it helpful to include the thread number (and sometimes comment number) along with the label, to help remind (and possibly allow re-evaluating later in light of other remarks) what inspired the note; for example:

gameshowhost 12512726/154474898 will not try having sex with llamas

 
2022-08-15 1:14:03 PM  

abb3w: gameshowhost: i promised myself that i wouldn't forget why i farkied you, and ... i've forgotten

When farkying someone, many users seeming find it helpful to include the thread number (and sometimes comment number) along with the label, to help remind (and possibly allow re-evaluating later in light of other remarks) what inspired the note; for example:

gameshowhost 12512726/154474898 will not try having sex with llamas


oh dear. in any case, i'm still trying not to.

/past performance is not an indicator of future returns
 
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