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(Guardian)   Headline: "Record Death Valley flooding a once-in-1,000-year event". Climate change: "Hold my beer"   (theguardian.com) divider line
    More: Followup, National Park Service, Precipitation, Weather, Death Valley National Park, Meteorology, Death Valley, Rain, amount of water  
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3887 clicks; posted to Main » on 11 Aug 2022 at 5:30 AM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



33 Comments     (+0 »)
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2022-08-11 5:46:04 AM  
The storm poured an amount of water equal to roughly 75% of the average annual total in just three hours,

Yikes. Impressive.
 
2022-08-11 5:47:18 AM  
Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion last seen running from the scene.
 
2022-08-11 5:55:25 AM  
No pleasing some people.
 
2022-08-11 5:55:27 AM  
Not to be that guy, but if this didn't exceed a daily record, how is it a once in 1000 years event? I recognize these types of events will increase frequency. Presumably, the previous record wasn't set during this past couple of decades, where we've started seeing climate change in real time.
 
2022-08-11 5:55:45 AM  

Gordon Bennett: Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion last seen running from the scene.


I was going to say maybe a certain Farkette from the politics tab....
 
2022-08-11 5:55:50 AM  
I've said it before, and I'll say it again.

It's high time we started with the ritual human sacrifices of climate denialists.

Best Case Scenario: The gods look with favor upon our bloody sacrifices, take pity on us and cool the planet down somehow.

Worst Case Scenario: Fewer climate change denialists walking around spewing CO2 into the atmosphere.
 
2022-08-11 6:17:50 AM  
thumbs.gfycat.comView Full Size
 
2022-08-11 6:19:03 AM  
Weird how many of these once-in-1000-years weather events keep cropping up nowadays.
 
2022-08-11 6:19:22 AM  
This is what happens when you don't rake your dry river and creek beds.
Same with gullies.

Rake your cloudbanks also.
 
433 [TotalFark]
2022-08-11 6:42:12 AM  
After all of that, some thousand year flowers would be nice
 
2022-08-11 6:44:32 AM  

youngandstupid: Not to be that guy, but if this didn't exceed a daily record, how is it a once in 1000 years event? I recognize these types of events will increase frequency. Presumably, the previous record wasn't set during this past couple of decades, where we've started seeing climate change in real time.


That refers to the probability of it happening, not the frequency.
 
2022-08-11 6:54:10 AM  

Smoking GNU: Weird how many of these once-in-1000-years weather events keep cropping up nowadays.


You don't really get how statistics work on a geological scale, do you.
 
2022-08-11 6:54:58 AM  

zeroman987: youngandstupid: Not to be that guy, but if this didn't exceed a daily record, how is it a once in 1000 years event? I recognize these types of events will increase frequency. Presumably, the previous record wasn't set during this past couple of decades, where we've started seeing climate change in real time.

That refers to the probability of it happening, not the frequency.


Understood, but if it's happened twice in the past 100-200 years, wouldn't that indicate the probability estimate was incorrect? I guess that's kind of the point, and difficult to impossible to untangle given the change in climate affecting the change in probability.
 
2022-08-11 6:59:42 AM  

youngandstupid: Not to be that guy, but if this didn't exceed a daily record, how is it a once in 1000 years event? I recognize these types of events will increase frequency. Presumably, the previous record wasn't set during this past couple of decades, where we've started seeing climate change in real time.


we've lived in SC USA for 8 months and there has been 2 "once in 1,000 yr" rain events and we were told of another that happened 2 years ago. smells like BS to me. as long as people keep changing the face of the land by putting streets, buildings and housing complexes wherever they please the chance of intense flooding will increase.
 
2022-08-11 7:09:42 AM  
"While the storm did not break Death Valley's all-time record for daily rainfall, it did break records for this time of year"
 
2022-08-11 7:40:04 AM  
And this is why I am looking into tropical beachfront properties.
In Nova Scotia.
 
2022-08-11 7:43:21 AM  

youngandstupid: zeroman987: youngandstupid: Not to be that guy, but if this didn't exceed a daily record, how is it a once in 1000 years event? I recognize these types of events will increase frequency. Presumably, the previous record wasn't set during this past couple of decades, where we've started seeing climate change in real time.

That refers to the probability of it happening, not the frequency.

Understood, but if it's happened twice in the past 100-200 years, wouldn't that indicate the probability estimate was incorrect? I guess that's kind of the point, and difficult to impossible to untangle given the change in climate affecting the change in probability.


Bayesian statistics, your time has come!

(Odds change, but people loath change, so won't adjust odds to reflect emerging conditions unless you hit them with a stick.  The stick is called "Bayesian inference".)
 
2022-08-11 7:51:56 AM  

youngandstupid: Not to be that guy, but if this didn't exceed a daily record, how is it a once in 1000 years event? I recognize these types of events will increase frequency. Presumably, the previous record wasn't set during this past couple of decades, where we've started seeing climate change in real time.


Most of us came in to be "that guy", it's Fark, I expect nothing less.

/how many Rhode Island's is that?
 
2022-08-11 8:01:42 AM  

youngandstupid: zeroman987: youngandstupid: Not to be that guy, but if this didn't exceed a daily record, how is it a once in 1000 years event? I recognize these types of events will increase frequency. Presumably, the previous record wasn't set during this past couple of decades, where we've started seeing climate change in real time.

That refers to the probability of it happening, not the frequency.

Understood, but if it's happened twice in the past 100-200 years, wouldn't that indicate the probability estimate was incorrect?


Odds of rolling a 6 on a (balanced) d6 are 1 in 6.

If I roll a d6 six times and get a 6 three times, that doesn't mean the probability estimate is wrong.
 
2022-08-11 8:40:37 AM  

youngandstupid: Not to be that guy, but if this didn't exceed a daily record, how is it a once in 1000 years event? I recognize these types of events will increase frequency. Presumably, the previous record wasn't set during this past couple of decades, where we've started seeing climate change in real time.


It's not always about daily totals.  We had 2.4 inches fall in 20 minutes, which is 5% of annual rainfall for CT.  It was devastating.  Roof drains and scuppers on million square foot warehouses couldn't empty fast enough and water poured into buildings.  Manhole covers turned into geysers and catch basins turned into whirlpools.  Car interiors were flooded.  That's 125,000 gallons of water on that roof alone and twice as much on the surrounding pavement with nowhere to go.

Conversely, some 500-year storms are multi-day events.  The historic New England 55 Flood was due to back to back hurricanes Connie and Diana, which dumped up to 26 inches of rain.  Diane hit a week after Connie and there was nowhere for the water to go with saturated ground and full ponds.
 
2022-08-11 8:43:02 AM  
Make ya wonder how all them there gullies got there, hur.
 
2022-08-11 9:01:42 AM  

youngandstupid: Not to be that guy, but if this didn't exceed a daily record, how is it a once in 1000 years event? I recognize these types of events will increase frequency. Presumably, the previous record wasn't set during this past couple of decades, where we've started seeing climate change in real time.


My guess would be the flooding was a "once in a thousand year" event.  If they got 1.5 inches of rain in 3 hours this time, it's going to cause more flooding than if they got 2 inches spread throughout the day.
 
2022-08-11 9:06:48 AM  

Halfabee64: youngandstupid: Not to be that guy, but if this didn't exceed a daily record, how is it a once in 1000 years event? I recognize these types of events will increase frequency. Presumably, the previous record wasn't set during this past couple of decades, where we've started seeing climate change in real time.

It's not always about daily totals.  We had 2.4 inches fall in 20 minutes, which is 5% of annual rainfall for CT.  It was devastating.  Roof drains and scuppers on million square foot warehouses couldn't empty fast enough and water poured into buildings.  Manhole covers turned into geysers and catch basins turned into whirlpools.  Car interiors were flooded.  That's 125,000 gallons of water on that roof alone and twice as much on the surrounding pavement with nowhere to go.

Conversely, some 500-year storms are multi-day events.  The historic New England 55 Flood was due to back to back hurricanes Connie and Diana, which dumped up to 26 inches of rain.  Diane hit a week after Connie and there was nowhere for the water to go with saturated ground and full ponds.


In deserts you've also got to remember that they weren't necessarily always deserts.  So you've god roads and structures built in relatively flat areas that are actually long dead lakebeds with long dead rivers feeding into them.  You dump a bunch of water in a short period of time into the place and guess where it's going to go.
 
2022-08-11 9:54:32 AM  

Smoking GNU: Weird how many of these once-in-1000-years weather events keep cropping up nowadays.


weird how you don't know what a once in 1000 year event means.  don;t you have the internet?

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-1000-year-flood
 
2022-08-11 10:33:29 AM  
Meh, probability just rolled double-six.

Here in the UK, we know to take an umbrella with us, even if the sky is blue and the weatherman predicted sun all day.

Especially if the weatherman predicted sun all day...
 
2022-08-11 10:56:27 AM  
I do love how things are named out there though. Furnace creek. Death valley. Funeral mountains.
 
2022-08-11 11:02:57 AM  

Laobaojun: youngandstupid: zeroman987: youngandstupid: Not to be that guy, but if this didn't exceed a daily record, how is it a once in 1000 years event? I recognize these types of events will increase frequency. Presumably, the previous record wasn't set during this past couple of decades, where we've started seeing climate change in real time.

That refers to the probability of it happening, not the frequency.

Understood, but if it's happened twice in the past 100-200 years, wouldn't that indicate the probability estimate was incorrect? I guess that's kind of the point, and difficult to impossible to untangle given the change in climate affecting the change in probability.

Bayesian statistics, your time has come!

(Odds change, but people loath change, so won't adjust odds to reflect emerging conditions unless you hit them with a stick.  The stick is called "Bayesian inference".)


It was misunderstanding Bayesian statistics that led to the Hurricane Katrina debacle, in part. The head of the Army Corps of Engineers understood that Hurricane Camille (1969) had been a "500-year" hurricane, so they decided there was plenty of time to reinforce the levees around New Orleans. In fact, there was one chance in 6 that a "500-year hurricane" like Camille would hit New Orleans in any given year.
 
2022-08-11 11:35:33 AM  

dready zim: Meh, probability just rolled double-six.

Here in the UK, we know to take an umbrella with us, even if the sky is blue and the weatherman predicted sun all day.

Especially if the weatherman predicted sun all day...


I just looked up a couple points of data from Wikipedia in order to give you Brits a sense of perspective.

Imagine an area of land bigger than the county of Lincolnshire that normally only gets 2.2 inches of rain annually getting 75% of that rain in one day.

While you are at it, imagine what would happen to the inhabitants of Lincolnshire if the temperature was over 100F(38C for you Brits) for 154 consecutive days, the way Death Valley was in 2001.

"The highest surface temperature ever recorded in Death Valley was 201.0 °F (93.9 °C), on July 15, 1972, at Furnace Creek, which is the highest ground surface temperature ever recorded on earth, as well as the only recorded surface temperature of above 200 °F (93.3 °C).[26]
The greatest number of consecutive days with a maximum temperature of at least 100 °F (38 °C) was 154, in the summer of 2001. The summer of 1996 had 40 days over 120 °F (49 °C), and 105 days over 110 °F (43 °C). The summer of 1917 had 52 days when the temperature reached 120 °F (49 °C) or above, 43 of them consecutive."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_Valley
 
2022-08-11 1:51:56 PM  

Psychopompous: dready zim: Meh, probability just rolled double-six.

Here in the UK, we know to take an umbrella with us, even if the sky is blue and the weatherman predicted sun all day.

Especially if the weatherman predicted sun all day...

I just looked up a couple points of data from Wikipedia in order to give you Brits a sense of perspective.

Imagine an area of land bigger than the county of Lincolnshire that normally only gets 2.2 inches of rain annually getting 75% of that rain in one day.

While you are at it, imagine what would happen to the inhabitants of Lincolnshire if the temperature was over 100F(38C for you Brits) for 154 consecutive days, the way Death Valley was in 2001.

"The highest surface temperature ever recorded in Death Valley was 201.0 °F (93.9 °C), on July 15, 1972, at Furnace Creek, which is the highest ground surface temperature ever recorded on earth, as well as the only recorded surface temperature of above 200 °F (93.3 °C).[26]
The greatest number of consecutive days with a maximum temperature of at least 100 °F (38 °C) was 154, in the summer of 2001. The summer of 1996 had 40 days over 120 °F (49 °C), and 105 days over 110 °F (43 °C). The summer of 1917 had 52 days when the temperature reached 120 °F (49 °C) or above, 43 of them consecutive."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_Valley


o_0
 
2022-08-11 2:08:12 PM  

Psychopompous: to give you Brits a sense of perspective.


Well, that's your mistake right there. If the English ever had a sense of perspective, we wouldn't have managed half the things we achieved. Anyway, a sense of perspective can be a dangerous thing.

Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy Total Perspective Vortex
Youtube wUJuv6qL_HA
 
2022-08-11 5:23:39 PM  

Smoking GNU: Weird how many of these once-in-1000-years weather events keep cropping up nowadays.


Kentucky.  Las Vegas.  Illinois.  Death Valley.  I believe Yellowstone got one last year.

Almost as if the climate is changing...
 
2022-08-11 6:51:25 PM  
Death Valley Germans, my ass. Its probably Milhouse!
 
2022-08-11 9:37:45 PM  
Or maybe we didn't have billions of cameras a 1000 years ago
 
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