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(CNBC)   The yield curve between 2- and 10-year Treasuries has inverted, a phenomenon that has predicted 12 of the last 10 recessions since 1955. EVERYBODY PANIC   (cnbc.com) divider line
    More: Scary, Monetary policy, Central bank, Treasury yield curve, Federal Reserve System, 10-year note, longer duration Treasury yields, bond market, Yield curve  
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573 clicks; posted to Business » and Main » on 05 Jul 2022 at 2:27 PM (12 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



Voting Results (Funniest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

 
2022-07-05 2:37:23 PM  
10 votes:
Predicted 120% of recessions?  That's amazing.
 
2022-07-05 2:40:02 PM  
9 votes:
the old indicators are almost useless.  this economy is not what it used to be.  the animal spirits that consume the asset class cannot be an accurate predictor of where the new corporate feudal state is moving.
 
2022-07-05 2:34:03 PM  
7 votes:
It inverted in 2019 and there wasn't a recession.
 
2022-07-05 3:14:58 PM  
7 votes:
12 of the last 10 recessions

media0.giphy.comView Full Size
 
2022-07-05 2:52:17 PM  
5 votes:

overzelus: Rapmaster2000: It inverted in 2019 and there wasn't a recession.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_recession#United_States


Yes, I'm aware that the US endured an extremely short recession nearly a year after the inversion due to everything being closed.

Clearly, there will be a pandemic in 2023.
 
2022-07-05 2:41:14 PM  
4 votes:

overzelus: Rapmaster2000: It inverted in 2019 and there wasn't a recession.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_recession#United_States


I mean, yes, technically there was a recession but not due to anything that could have been predicted by economic indicators in 2019.
 
2022-07-05 5:49:26 PM  
4 votes:

theriotact28: Basically, I wouldn't take investment advice based on this one metric.


Well yeah, only a fool would trade stocks based on bullshiat they read from internet randos. That's only useful for NFTs and crypto.
 
2022-07-05 4:13:05 PM  
3 votes:

GardenWeasel: 12 of the last 10 recessions

[media0.giphy.com image 480x270] [View Full Size image _x_]


Fark user imageView Full Size


11 (2 vs 10) yield curve inversions since 1955, plus the one in April 2022 not on the chart = 12

10 recessions
 
2022-07-05 3:04:07 PM  
2 votes:
Only like 2 out of 5 dentists are on board with these recession predictions.
 
2022-07-05 3:31:26 PM  
2 votes:

cretinbob: Rapmaster2000: It inverted in 2019 and there wasn't a recession.

Jesus, not only did you skip the article, you didn't even read the headline completely.


No, I understood the headline.

But I totally didn't read the article.
 
2022-07-05 3:44:20 PM  
2 votes:
I submitted this headline back in April.
 
2022-07-05 2:38:54 PM  
1 vote:

Rapmaster2000: It inverted in 2019 and there wasn't a recession.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_recession#United_States
 
2022-07-05 3:05:00 PM  
1 vote:

Fonaibung: shroom: overzelus: Rapmaster2000: It inverted in 2019 and there wasn't a recession.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_recession#United_States

I mean, yes, technically there was a recession but not due to anything that could have been predicted by economic indicators in 2019.

The recession started in Feb 2020. I don't think COVID was officially a factor until March. Ironically, our COVID response (trickle-up stimulus) likely shortened the recession.


Because Asia was already farked in January.  that spilled over.

Our China office closed at the end of Chinese New Year.  They simply never went back to the office.  We had a guy get quarantined just because he changed trains in Wuhan.  He wasn't able to work for a month.
 
2022-07-05 3:14:05 PM  
1 vote:
Sounds like a great time to buy. Bring on recessions as they are the best time to make money!
 
2022-07-05 3:14:30 PM  
1 vote:

shroom: Predicted 120% of recessions?  That's amazing.


Invert that: 83% of the time inversion preceded a recession.
 
2022-07-05 3:15:39 PM  
1 vote:

GardenWeasel: 12 of the last 10 recessions

[media0.giphy.com image 480x270] [View Full Size image _x_]


Zero Hedge predicted 125 of 0 stock market crashes because of Obummer.
 
2022-07-05 3:19:47 PM  
1 vote:

natazha: shroom: Predicted 120% of recessions?  That's amazing.

Invert that: 83% of the time inversion preceded a recession.


I understand the math.  I just wish the modmins understood the math.
 
2022-07-05 3:22:21 PM  
1 vote:

Rapmaster2000: GardenWeasel: 12 of the last 10 recessions

[media0.giphy.com image 480x270] [View Full Size image _x_]

Zero Hedge predicted 125 of 0 stock market crashes because of Obummer.


One of these days they'll accidentally be right once. That's when we'll know we should have taken them seriously all along.
 
2022-07-05 3:30:20 PM  
1 vote:

Rapmaster2000: It inverted in 2019 and there wasn't a recession.


Jesus, not only did you skip the article, you didn't even read the headline completely.
 
2022-07-05 4:14:49 PM  
1 vote:

mcreadyblue: severedtoe: the old indicators are almost useless.  this economy is not what it used to be.  the animal spirits that consume the asset class cannot be an accurate predictor of where the new corporate feudal state is moving.

This may be the first recession with no layoffs and a very low unemployment rate.

[rdceconomics.wpengine.com image 850x478]


I am kind of getting that feeling too - there might be a technical recession because inflation is higher than nominal GDP growth but since most people and businesses operate in the nominal economy and have debts denominated in nominal dollars with fixed interest rates, it could all feel very normal.
 
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