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(CNN)   Day 132 of WW3: Zelensky tells Ukraine reconstruction conference that UKR infrastructure losses are $100+ billion. Putin congratulates troops on Luhansk "victory." It's your Tuesday Ukraine war discussion   (cnn.com) divider line
    More: News, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian language, WNBA starBrittney Griner, Ukrainians, Russian language, Russians  
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685 clicks; posted to Main » and Politics » on 05 Jul 2022 at 8:00 AM (5 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-07-05 6:14:24 AM  
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2022-07-05 6:56:32 AM  
Ukraine is doing surprisingly well, considering they are being attacked by a former superpower.
 
2022-07-05 7:13:31 AM  

sithon: Ukraine is doing surprisingly well, considering they are being attacked by a former superpower.


The operative word there being "former."
 
2022-07-05 8:02:44 AM  
So the insurgency has started.  https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-kherson-official-killed-car-bomb/31913329.html

It's going to be car bombs for about a decade.  Congrats, Russia.  You've won an insurgency on your border.
 
2022-07-05 8:02:54 AM  
They need to break the blockade.
 
2022-07-05 8:09:07 AM  

Rapmaster2000: So the insurgency has started.  https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-kherson-official-killed-car-bomb/31913329.html

It's going to be car bombs for about a decade.  Congrats, Russia.  You've won an insurgency on your border.


Oh yeah... there was never a doubt they could take and hold the Eastern Provinces they wanted... but it's like every other occupying force. Enjoy the slow bleed forever end ever.
 
2022-07-05 8:12:27 AM  
ZELENSKYY IS STILL ALIVE!!!

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TWX
2022-07-05 8:13:08 AM  

ace in your face: They need to break the blockade.


Yes, but that becomes incredibly difficult when Turkey has banned warships that didn't originate from the Black Sea from transiting the strait back into the Black Sea.

During one of the world wars, one of major belligerent nations actually disassembled ships, carted them overland to a port they had gained control of, and reassembled them to put them into service in the Black Sea rather than try to get them through the Bosphorus.Germany maybe?  Either way, it was apparently a massive operation that required having a toehold in order to do it, along with ships that could be transported and a safe enough place launch them from.  With the advent of modern reconnaissance aircraft and satellites for observing, and cruise missiles and long range artillery, I don't see any nation being able to do this easily without those ships being destroyed before they can be used effectively.  Too easy to hit them when they're being unloaded from ground transport or during reassembly.
 
2022-07-05 8:13:39 AM  
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2022-07-05 8:16:46 AM  
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2022-07-05 8:19:41 AM  

TWX: ace in your face: They need to break the blockade.

Yes, but that becomes incredibly difficult when Turkey has banned warships that didn't originate from the Black Sea from transiting the strait back into the Black Sea.

During one of the world wars, one of major belligerent nations actually disassembled ships, carted them overland to a port they had gained control of, and reassembled them to put them into service in the Black Sea rather than try to get them through the Bosphorus.Germany maybe?  Either way, it was apparently a massive operation that required having a toehold in order to do it, along with ships that could be transported and a safe enough place launch them from.  With the advent of modern reconnaissance aircraft and satellites for observing, and cruise missiles and long range artillery, I don't see any nation being able to do this easily without those ships being destroyed before they can be used effectively.  Too easy to hit them when they're being unloaded from ground transport or during reassembly.


I think Germany did this with Uboats.
 
2022-07-05 8:20:22 AM  

2fardownthread: TWX: ace in your face: They need to break the blockade.

Yes, but that becomes incredibly difficult when Turkey has banned warships that didn't originate from the Black Sea from transiting the strait back into the Black Sea.

During one of the world wars, one of major belligerent nations actually disassembled ships, carted them overland to a port they had gained control of, and reassembled them to put them into service in the Black Sea rather than try to get them through the Bosphorus.Germany maybe?  Either way, it was apparently a massive operation that required having a toehold in order to do it, along with ships that could be transported and a safe enough place launch them from.  With the advent of modern reconnaissance aircraft and satellites for observing, and cruise missiles and long range artillery, I don't see any nation being able to do this easily without those ships being destroyed before they can be used effectively.  Too easy to hit them when they're being unloaded from ground transport or during reassembly.

I think Germany did this with Uboats.


Correcto
 
2022-07-05 8:22:13 AM  
If Russia were forced to pay 100 Billion to rebuild Ukraine, would that bankrupt the country?  Of course, I know better.  Just wondering.

Post war:
World Court:  Russia, pay Ukraine 100 Billion
Russia:  Hahahahahaha
WC:   Crippling economic sanctions
R:  Those only hurt the little Russians.  The ones you always say you care about.  Diversified portfolio over here, fools.
 
2022-07-05 8:22:49 AM  

NewportBarGuy: Rapmaster2000: So the insurgency has started.  https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-kherson-official-killed-car-bomb/31913329.html

It's going to be car bombs for about a decade.  Congrats, Russia.  You've won an insurgency on your border.

Oh yeah... there was never a doubt they could take and hold the Eastern Provinces they wanted... but it's like every other occupying force. Enjoy the slow bleed forever end ever.


Take, maybe. They won't be able to hold it. They don't have the manpower or equipment.
 
2022-07-05 8:29:35 AM  
100 billion in infrastructure that Russia will have to pay for eventually.

So now Russia is in a pickle. They have to keep fighting because they have no choice. But they already declared victory, so any more losses are that much harder to justify. If they move forward, they have that much more territory to defend, with supply lines that are that much longer. And any territory they try to acquire is going to be just about worthless because they will have to destroy it to take it.

If they pull back troops, they are vulnerable to a counteroffensive. If they leave them where they are and static, they are vulnerable to artillery, bombing etc. If they fight, they might die. If they don't fight, they are a waste of resources. If they do terror attacks, they harden opposition. If they do nothing, they appear weak.

It is still Russia's move. And the clock is ticking. They don't have a good move to make.
 
2022-07-05 8:38:29 AM  

Rapmaster2000: So the insurgency has started.  https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-kherson-official-killed-car-bomb/31913329.html

It's going to be car bombs for about a decade.  Congrats, Russia.  You've won an insurgency on your border.


Oh snap. It was HIS car with the bomb planted. That's a few big steps up from a random carin terms of skill and surveillance. I hope that sends fear into every russian puppet politician in occupied Ukraine.
 
2022-07-05 8:38:46 AM  
Apologies to doctorguilty


Hello, everyone, and welcome to

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Will Natasha's topless pictures raise enough money to bribe the commandant who has conscripted Boris?

Will Boris live long enough to find out? The answer in today's thrilling episode:

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2022-07-05 8:39:12 AM  

2fardownthread: 100 billion in infrastructure that Russia will have to pay for eventually.


One would assume that Russia would rebuild the areas of the Donbas that they annex after the "independence votes" this year, but that is perhaps giving them too much credit. Having seen the way Eastern Europe looked after 40 years of Soviet occupation, you can't assume they'll do much of anything other than treat their new lands as an extended "no-mans-land" between themselves and the enemy.
 
2022-07-05 8:39:22 AM  

2fardownthread: 100 billion in infrastructure that Russia will have to pay for eventually.

So now Russia is in a pickle. They have to keep fighting because they have no choice. But they already declared victory, so any more losses are that much harder to justify. If they move forward, they have that much more territory to defend, with supply lines that are that much longer. And any territory they try to acquire is going to be just about worthless because they will have to destroy it to take it.

If they pull back troops, they are vulnerable to a counteroffensive. If they leave them where they are and static, they are vulnerable to artillery, bombing etc. If they fight, they might die. If they don't fight, they are a waste of resources. If they do terror attacks, they harden opposition. If they do nothing, they appear weak.

It is still Russia's move. And the clock is ticking. They don't have a good move to make.


Difficulty: Ukraine isn't going to accept any of that and just stop.
 
2022-07-05 8:41:11 AM  

2fardownthread: TWX: ace in your face: They need to break the blockade.

Yes, but that becomes incredibly difficult when Turkey has banned warships that didn't originate from the Black Sea from transiting the strait back into the Black Sea.

During one of the world wars, one of major belligerent nations actually disassembled ships, carted them overland to a port they had gained control of, and reassembled them to put them into service in the Black Sea rather than try to get them through the Bosphorus.Germany maybe?  Either way, it was apparently a massive operation that required having a toehold in order to do it, along with ships that could be transported and a safe enough place launch them from.  With the advent of modern reconnaissance aircraft and satellites for observing, and cruise missiles and long range artillery, I don't see any nation being able to do this easily without those ships being destroyed before they can be used effectively.  Too easy to hit them when they're being unloaded from ground transport or during reassembly.

I think Germany did this with Uboats.


It was the Alorns, and the captains remarked that is was very unnatural.
 
2022-07-05 8:43:29 AM  
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Good thread by Mick Ryan.
 
2022-07-05 8:44:00 AM  
By the way, I have not seen it mentioned much in the news, but Russia's Gazprom has taken control of all of Sakhalin 2, which was a gas joint venture among Gazprom, Shell, and Mitsui and Mitsubishi, I think. It accounts for 4% of world production of natural gas.

That is theft, of course. Probably, production will continue, with sales to China because Korea and Japan are forbidden by sanctions.

Japan has lost, over the last 20 years or so, huge assets it had in Iraq, Iran, and Russia and other countries because it has followed sanctions protocols carefully. It hurts because Japan has no friendly countries nearby to share a grid or natural resources. It has no NATO. And it is always encouraged to make risky investments in such areas to support agreements that the West makes...it makes the carrots offered to Russia after the USSR fell, after Saddam fell, and during Iran's moderate period. Japan gets continually screwed over when someone in Washington decides to use sticks instead of carrots.

And of course it is happening again. In all of those cases, by the way, China has been happy to step right in and take Japan's place and reap the benefits from Japan's long development work.

So Ukraine lost 100 billion in infrastructure? Well, ok. Japan is losing billions in infrastructure too.

Japan is on the front lines, although it might not seem like it.
 
2022-07-05 8:46:40 AM  

2fardownthread: By the way, I have not seen it mentioned much in the news, but Russia's Gazprom has taken control of all of Sakhalin 2, which was a gas joint venture among Gazprom, Shell, and Mitsui and Mitsubishi, I think. It accounts for 4% of world production of natural gas.

That is theft, of course. Probably, production will continue, with sales to China because Korea and Japan are forbidden by sanctions.

Japan has lost, over the last 20 years or so, huge assets it had in Iraq, Iran, and Russia and other countries because it has followed sanctions protocols carefully. It hurts because Japan has no friendly countries nearby to share a grid or natural resources. It has no NATO. And it is always encouraged to make risky investments in such areas to support agreements that the West makes...it makes the carrots offered to Russia after the USSR fell, after Saddam fell, and during Iran's moderate period. Japan gets continually screwed over when someone in Washington decides to use sticks instead of carrots.

And of course it is happening again. In all of those cases, by the way, China has been happy to step right in and take Japan's place and reap the benefits from Japan's long development work.

So Ukraine lost 100 billion in infrastructure? Well, ok. Japan is losing billions in infrastructure too.

Japan is on the front lines, although it might not seem like it.


Russia has done this multiple times.  They did it twice to BP.  If you make a petrochemical investment in Russia, they might nationalize it.  That's just the cost of doing business in Russia.  The Japanese investors knew this was a risk when they invested.
 
2022-07-05 8:47:32 AM  

TWX: ace in your face: They need to break the blockade.

Yes, but that becomes incredibly difficult when Turkey has banned warships that didn't originate from the Black Sea from transiting the strait back into the Black Sea.

During one of the world wars, one of major belligerent nations actually disassembled ships, carted them overland to a port they had gained control of, and reassembled them to put them into service in the Black Sea rather than try to get them through the Bosphorus.Germany maybe?  Either way, it was apparently a massive operation that required having a toehold in order to do it, along with ships that could be transported and a safe enough place launch them from.  With the advent of modern reconnaissance aircraft and satellites for observing, and cruise missiles and long range artillery, I don't see any nation being able to do this easily without those ships being destroyed before they can be used effectively.  Too easy to hit them when they're being unloaded from ground transport or during reassembly.


Turkey has a navy in the Black Sea. They could escort the ships.
 
2022-07-05 8:47:34 AM  

cameroncrazy1984: NewportBarGuy: Rapmaster2000: So the insurgency has started.  https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-kherson-official-killed-car-bomb/31913329.html

It's going to be car bombs for about a decade.  Congrats, Russia.  You've won an insurgency on your border.

Oh yeah... there was never a doubt they could take and hold the Eastern Provinces they wanted... but it's like every other occupying force. Enjoy the slow bleed forever end ever.

Take, maybe. They won't be able to hold it. They don't have the manpower or equipment.


They absolutely do. They can hold it for as long as there is political will. There is literally nothing the Ukrainians can do to forcibly remove that kind of Russian position which is now dug in.

Out in the open, on offensive maneuvers with long supply lines? Totally.

The way they are set up now? No. They can hit depots, attack patrols, they will harass and cause havoc to them, but there is no way they can push them out.

It all comes down to the will of Russia and what happens in leadership.
 
2022-07-05 8:47:53 AM  

KarmicDisaster: 2fardownthread: 100 billion in infrastructure that Russia will have to pay for eventually.

So now Russia is in a pickle. They have to keep fighting because they have no choice. But they already declared victory, so any more losses are that much harder to justify. If they move forward, they have that much more territory to defend, with supply lines that are that much longer. And any territory they try to acquire is going to be just about worthless because they will have to destroy it to take it.

If they pull back troops, they are vulnerable to a counteroffensive. If they leave them where they are and static, they are vulnerable to artillery, bombing etc. If they fight, they might die. If they don't fight, they are a waste of resources. If they do terror attacks, they harden opposition. If they do nothing, they appear weak.

It is still Russia's move. And the clock is ticking. They don't have a good move to make.

Difficulty: Ukraine isn't going to accept any of that and just stop.


I don't understand your comment.

That is not a point of difficulty That is in fact, the point.

Russia is in a difficult position now just as it always has been since this started. Putin declaring victory is simply trumpeting that they can't do any better than they are right now. Putin wants a deal, but he won't get one. And he can't go forward and can't go back.
 
2022-07-05 8:51:08 AM  
Where's VHTS been lately? Hopefully Ok.
 
2022-07-05 8:51:13 AM  
Ukraine War: 'This is the hell that's Lysychansk'
Youtube qfQAbxMTPF4
 
2022-07-05 8:54:12 AM  

knbwhite: Where's VHTS been lately? Hopefully Ok.


Said he was taking a break for a while.
 
2022-07-05 8:55:34 AM  

Irisclara: Apologies to doctorguilty


Hello, everyone, and welcome to
Putin's Folly! (A Jay Ward Production)
Will Natasha's topless pictures raise enough money to bribe the commandant who has conscripted Boris?
Will Boris live long enough to find out? The answer in today's thrilling episode:
Rule 34 or The Beautiful Ural Mountains!
[Fark user image 346x229]

[Fark user image 347x230]


60 plus years old and that's the first time I've seen Natasha LaFemme thus posed.   I'll be in my bunker.  Better than Erin eSurance fan porn.
 
Juc
2022-07-05 8:55:36 AM  
I have no idea why Oryx started following the Dutch farming protests but it's been a bit funny


#DutchFarmersProtest Can't park there mate 👨🏻‍🌾 pic.twitter.com/ACr4xk0A2F
- Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) July 5, 2022
 
2022-07-05 8:55:42 AM  

Rapmaster2000: 2fardownthread: By the way, I have not seen it mentioned much in the news, but Russia's Gazprom has taken control of all of Sakhalin 2, which was a gas joint venture among Gazprom, Shell, and Mitsui and Mitsubishi, I think. It accounts for 4% of world production of natural gas.

That is theft, of course. Probably, production will continue, with sales to China because Korea and Japan are forbidden by sanctions.

Japan has lost, over the last 20 years or so, huge assets it had in Iraq, Iran, and Russia and other countries because it has followed sanctions protocols carefully. It hurts because Japan has no friendly countries nearby to share a grid or natural resources. It has no NATO. And it is always encouraged to make risky investments in such areas to support agreements that the West makes...it makes the carrots offered to Russia after the USSR fell, after Saddam fell, and during Iran's moderate period. Japan gets continually screwed over when someone in Washington decides to use sticks instead of carrots.

And of course it is happening again. In all of those cases, by the way, China has been happy to step right in and take Japan's place and reap the benefits from Japan's long development work.

So Ukraine lost 100 billion in infrastructure? Well, ok. Japan is losing billions in infrastructure too.

Japan is on the front lines, although it might not seem like it.

Russia has done this multiple times.  They did it twice to BP.  If you make a petrochemical investment in Russia, they might nationalize it.  That's just the cost of doing business in Russia.  The Japanese investors knew this was a risk when they invested.


Right. I get that you want to see capitalists get burned, but theft is theft. Japan is often "asked" to make things happen diplomatically by sweetening deals with investments and technology transfers, etc.

I guess my point is that Japan hangs its ass out for the US over and over and it has gotten kicked on a regular basis for that.

Another bit of it is that, I think, but I am not sure, that the platforms are in international waters. I might be wrong about that. Rest assured that the world will not come sailing to Japan's rescue in this case.
 
2022-07-05 8:57:17 AM  

2fardownthread: Rapmaster2000: 2fardownthread: By the way, I have not seen it mentioned much in the news, but Russia's Gazprom has taken control of all of Sakhalin 2, which was a gas joint venture among Gazprom, Shell, and Mitsui and Mitsubishi, I think. It accounts for 4% of world production of natural gas.

That is theft, of course. Probably, production will continue, with sales to China because Korea and Japan are forbidden by sanctions.

Japan has lost, over the last 20 years or so, huge assets it had in Iraq, Iran, and Russia and other countries because it has followed sanctions protocols carefully. It hurts because Japan has no friendly countries nearby to share a grid or natural resources. It has no NATO. And it is always encouraged to make risky investments in such areas to support agreements that the West makes...it makes the carrots offered to Russia after the USSR fell, after Saddam fell, and during Iran's moderate period. Japan gets continually screwed over when someone in Washington decides to use sticks instead of carrots.

And of course it is happening again. In all of those cases, by the way, China has been happy to step right in and take Japan's place and reap the benefits from Japan's long development work.

So Ukraine lost 100 billion in infrastructure? Well, ok. Japan is losing billions in infrastructure too.

Japan is on the front lines, although it might not seem like it.

Russia has done this multiple times.  They did it twice to BP.  If you make a petrochemical investment in Russia, they might nationalize it.  That's just the cost of doing business in Russia.  The Japanese investors knew this was a risk when they invested.

Right. I get that you want to see capitalists get burned, but theft is theft. Japan is often "asked" to make things happen diplomatically by sweetening deals with investments and technology transfers, etc.

I guess my point is that Japan hangs its ass out for the US over and over and it has gotten kicked on a regular basis for that.

Another bit of it is that, I think, but I am not sure, that the platforms are in international waters. I might be wrong about that. Rest assured that the world will not come sailing to Japan's rescue in this case.


You think Japan gets nothing out of these deals?
 
Juc
2022-07-05 8:57:48 AM  
Don't miss the conclusion of @IrregWarfare's two-part series on irregular warfare in Ukraine: "Political Warfare and the Road to Invasion: Irregular Warfare in Ukraine since 2014" https://t.co/x4rm2rjZwv
- Modern War Institute (@WarInstitute) July 1, 2022
 
Juc
2022-07-05 8:59:17 AM  
Numbers seem a bit high but I think that airport is cursed as far as russians go at least


APU attacked the airfield in Melitopol, 200 russians were killed, 300 more were injured, - Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov. pic.twitter.com/Xa0M8DIpdk
- ТРУХА⚡English (@TpyxaNews) July 5, 2022
 
2022-07-05 9:00:00 AM  

2fardownthread: Another bit of it is that, I think, but I am not sure, that the platforms are in international waters. I might be wrong about that. Rest assured that the world will not come sailing to Japan's rescue in this case.


No. It's Russian island.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-07-05 9:00:04 AM  

2fardownthread: KarmicDisaster: 2fardownthread: 100 billion in infrastructure that Russia will have to pay for eventually.

So now Russia is in a pickle. They have to keep fighting because they have no choice. But they already declared victory, so any more losses are that much harder to justify. If they move forward, they have that much more territory to defend, with supply lines that are that much longer. And any territory they try to acquire is going to be just about worthless because they will have to destroy it to take it.

If they pull back troops, they are vulnerable to a counteroffensive. If they leave them where they are and static, they are vulnerable to artillery, bombing etc. If they fight, they might die. If they don't fight, they are a waste of resources. If they do terror attacks, they harden opposition. If they do nothing, they appear weak.

It is still Russia's move. And the clock is ticking. They don't have a good move to make.

Difficulty: Ukraine isn't going to accept any of that and just stop.

I don't understand your comment.

That is not a point of difficulty That is in fact, the point.

Russia is in a difficult position now just as it always has been since this started. Putin declaring victory is simply trumpeting that they can't do any better than they are right now. Putin wants a deal, but he won't get one. And he can't go forward and can't go back.


Sorry, just a weird way of agreeing with you an trying to emphasize the point I guess.
 
2022-07-05 9:01:33 AM  

TWX: ace in your face: They need to break the blockade.

Yes, but that becomes incredibly difficult when Turkey has banned warships that didn't originate from the Black Sea from transiting the strait back into the Black Sea.

During one of the world wars, one of major belligerent nations actually disassembled ships, carted them overland to a port they had gained control of, and reassembled them to put them into service in the Black Sea rather than try to get them through the Bosphorus.Germany maybe?  Either way, it was apparently a massive operation that required having a toehold in order to do it, along with ships that could be transported and a safe enough place launch them from.  With the advent of modern reconnaissance aircraft and satellites for observing, and cruise missiles and long range artillery, I don't see any nation being able to do this easily without those ships being destroyed before they can be used effectively.  Too easy to hit them when they're being unloaded from ground transport or during reassembly.


U-Boats in the Black Sea in WW2 - Submarines on land and sea (ft. Military History Visualized)
Youtube bFCtIgUQl1w
 
2022-07-05 9:02:29 AM  

2fardownthread: I guess my point is that Japan hangs its ass out for the US over and over and it has gotten kicked on a regular basis for that.


Firms in Japan make deals for themselves.  Whether that's good for Japan itself is secondary.  Whether that's good for the US is not at all a consideration.
 
Juc
2022-07-05 9:02:32 AM  
Strange



⚡ General Staff: Conscripts, reservists cannot leave city of residence without permission from military enlistment office.

The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said on July 5 that all people subject to military service would have to obtain permission to leave their city.
- The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 5, 2022
 
2022-07-05 9:04:24 AM  

NewportBarGuy: cameroncrazy1984: NewportBarGuy: Rapmaster2000: So the insurgency has started.  https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-kherson-official-killed-car-bomb/31913329.html

It's going to be car bombs for about a decade.  Congrats, Russia.  You've won an insurgency on your border.

Oh yeah... there was never a doubt they could take and hold the Eastern Provinces they wanted... but it's like every other occupying force. Enjoy the slow bleed forever end ever.

Take, maybe. They won't be able to hold it. They don't have the manpower or equipment.

They absolutely do. They can hold it for as long as there is political will. There is literally nothing the Ukrainians can do to forcibly remove that kind of Russian position which is now dug in.

Out in the open, on offensive maneuvers with long supply lines? Totally.

The way they are set up now? No. They can hit depots, attack patrols, they will harass and cause havoc to them, but there is no way they can push them out.

It all comes down to the will of Russia and what happens in leadership.


Well, you are kind of right. But you know, the Germans retreated from Stalingrad. "Push them out" is the phrase that needs to be defined. If you are saying that Ukraine does not have the resources to find and kill every Russian soldier camped out in the rubble, that is almost certainly true.

But could Ukraine forces make the positions untenable? Sure. Make it so expensive that retreat is preferable? Sure. Starve out Russian soldiers? Sure.

And you know, Ukraine, for all practical purposes is NATO and most of the world, so Ukraine has the economic, diplomatic, and logistical resources to continue forever. It will, as you say, depend on "the will of Russia" as to whether they choose to retreat or not. That is not to say that Ukraine has no influence on that will.
 
Juc
2022-07-05 9:06:51 AM  
Now it needs ratification I believe


BREAKING: Finland and Sweden sign a historic NATO accession protocol
- Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) July 5, 2022
 
Juc
2022-07-05 9:10:24 AM  
I don't got much else, I'm short on time today
 
2022-07-05 9:15:19 AM  

Juc: I have no idea why Oryx started following the Dutch farming protests but it's been a bit funny

#DutchFarmersProtest Can't park there mate 👨🏻‍🌾 pic.twitter.com/ACr4xk0A2F
- Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) July 5, 2022


The authors of Oryx appear to be Dutch.
 
2022-07-05 9:15:49 AM  

Rapmaster2000: ms in Japan make deals for themselves.  Whether that's good for Japan itself is secondary.  Whether that's good for the US is not at all a consideration.


Wow. That is wrong. And in fact I can think of almost no case where that has been true. If you don't know about Japan just say you don't know about Japan.

GardenWeasel: No. It's Russian island.


Project is not on the island.

qorkfiend: You think Japan gets nothing out of these deals?


For long term capital projects, a lot of capital expenditure, sometimes decades, have to go in before any return comes out. So when you say "Japan gets nothing" well, it can be much worse than NOTHING, can't it? When all the pipelines and all the derricks and all the  mid-ocean facilities have been built because everyone wants to encourage Russian economic development, which was an international initiative in the 1990s, you eventually come to the phase where you start selling the natural gas and you get revenues, which were supposed to be shared.

If those get cut short, you LOSE money, simply because you went out to aid a young struggling democracy that was a political hot potato for Washington. Then world opinion changes and you get cut off and all of your equipment gets taken over by the Russian and Chinese petro giants.

Saying it happens. Over and over. You can say it doesn't matter to you because of course it doesn't. I am telling you it is happening. And it is happening because of this war.
 
2022-07-05 9:21:24 AM  
Orc tank (not sure what variety of T-series) pops its top in a wheat field.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1544253911238070273
 
2022-07-05 9:23:36 AM  

Harry Freakstorm: Irisclara: Apologies to doctorguilty


Hello, everyone, and welcome to
Putin's Folly! (A Jay Ward Production)
Will Natasha's topless pictures raise enough money to bribe the commandant who has conscripted Boris?
Will Boris live long enough to find out? The answer in today's thrilling episode:
Rule 34 or The Beautiful Ural Mountains!
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60 plus years old and that's the first time I've seen Natasha LaFemme thus posed.   I'll be in my bunker.  Better than Erin eSurance fan porn.


Natasha Fatale

/ one
// two
/// three syllables in Fatale
 
2022-07-05 9:25:05 AM  

Rapmaster2000: 2fardownthread: By the way, I have not seen it mentioned much in the news, but Russia's Gazprom has taken control of all of Sakhalin 2, which was a gas joint venture among Gazprom, Shell, and Mitsui and Mitsubishi, I think. It accounts for 4% of world production of natural gas.

That is theft, of course. Probably, production will continue, with sales to China because Korea and Japan are forbidden by sanctions.

Japan has lost, over the last 20 years or so, huge assets it had in Iraq, Iran, and Russia and other countries because it has followed sanctions protocols carefully. It hurts because Japan has no friendly countries nearby to share a grid or natural resources. It has no NATO. And it is always encouraged to make risky investments in such areas to support agreements that the West makes...it makes the carrots offered to Russia after the USSR fell, after Saddam fell, and during Iran's moderate period. Japan gets continually screwed over when someone in Washington decides to use sticks instead of carrots.

And of course it is happening again. In all of those cases, by the way, China has been happy to step right in and take Japan's place and reap the benefits from Japan's long development work.

So Ukraine lost 100 billion in infrastructure? Well, ok. Japan is losing billions in infrastructure too.

Japan is on the front lines, although it might not seem like it.

Russia has done this multiple times.  They did it twice to BP.  If you make a petrochemical investment in Russia, they might nationalize it.  That's just the cost of doing business in Russia.  The Japanese investors knew this was a risk when they invested.


The Russians did it to Exxon over and over too. One of the reasons I thought Tillerson would be a good Secl of State is that he knew how crappy the Russians are. He is also nowhere near the idealogue that Trump is.

I think that it was Exxon that was screwed over on Sakhalin 1 ownership, with Gazprom getting Exxon's stake.

One of the points of reparations after this war is going to have to include restoration of foreign ownership of enterprises etc. because Russia is going to have to EARN the funds to pay back what it owes. It will be a big mess and you can be sure that the US and Japan will be ponying up big bucks to "support Russia's fledgling democracy" all over again.

It will involve a lot of technology transfer etc. I guess would rather that the US and Japan just move in and develop Siberia and use the proceeds to pay back Ukraine directly, but that would be very imperialist of me. Leaving Russia in control of things just means someone will get ripped off again.
 
2022-07-05 9:26:35 AM  

NewportBarGuy: It all comes down to the will of Russia and what happens in leadership.


It ends when that Putin guy goes into the forever box.
 
2022-07-05 9:27:54 AM  

2fardownthread: NewportBarGuy: cameroncrazy1984: NewportBarGuy: Rapmaster2000: So the insurgency has started.  https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-kherson-official-killed-car-bomb/31913329.html

It's going to be car bombs for about a decade.  Congrats, Russia.  You've won an insurgency on your border.

Oh yeah... there was never a doubt they could take and hold the Eastern Provinces they wanted... but it's like every other occupying force. Enjoy the slow bleed forever end ever.

Take, maybe. They won't be able to hold it. They don't have the manpower or equipment.

They absolutely do. They can hold it for as long as there is political will. There is literally nothing the Ukrainians can do to forcibly remove that kind of Russian position which is now dug in.

Out in the open, on offensive maneuvers with long supply lines? Totally.

The way they are set up now? No. They can hit depots, attack patrols, they will harass and cause havoc to them, but there is no way they can push them out.

It all comes down to the will of Russia and what happens in leadership.

Well, you are kind of right. But you know, the Germans retreated from Stalingrad. "Push them out" is the phrase that needs to be defined. If you are saying that Ukraine does not have the resources to find and kill every Russian soldier camped out in the rubble, that is almost certainly true.

But could Ukraine forces make the positions untenable? Sure. Make it so expensive that retreat is preferable? Sure. Starve out Russian soldiers? Sure.

And you know, Ukraine, for all practical purposes is NATO and most of the world, so Ukraine has the economic, diplomatic, and logistical resources to continue forever. It will, as you say, depend on "the will of Russia" as to whether they choose to retreat or not. That is not to say that Ukraine has no influence on that will.


The problem is the costs in Ukrainian manpower and materiel associated with doing so. The Soviets pushed the Germans out of Stalingrad, sure. They also took over a million casualties doing it.

Ukraine does not have endless manpower.
 
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