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(Twitter)   Nate Silver: If it wasn't for all the problems with our political system, it would be fine   (twitter.com) divider line
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3134 clicks; posted to Politics » on 02 Jul 2022 at 9:05 PM (5 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-07-02 5:30:31 PM  
Original Tweet:

 
2022-07-02 5:35:44 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-07-02 5:37:25 PM  
Minority rule by extremist religious nutjobs is never mostly fine.
 
2022-07-02 5:41:03 PM  
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2022-07-02 6:05:07 PM  
I've read that several times and I'm still trying to parse it. Things would be mostly fine if not for the major things that define the system? Is he being serious or is this a joke? Or is he just saying if we resolved those major issues then most other issues would be resolved by that? I don't think the idea of "if you fix big problems, a lot of the small problems will go away too" is that unpopular of an opinion. I truly don't understand what he's trying to convey.
 
2022-07-02 6:06:16 PM  
Less gerrymandering?
 
2022-07-02 6:12:33 PM  

Earguy: Less gerrymandering?


It's like bug parts in food. You can't realistically remove it completely, so you pick a PPM limit and call anything below that good.
 
2022-07-02 6:24:47 PM  
And if my grandma had wheels, she'd be a bike.
 
2022-07-02 6:33:42 PM  

aleister_greynight: [Fark user image 598x180]


Zeynep Tufecki is my favorite academic.
 
2022-07-02 6:39:26 PM  
Other than that, how was the show Mrs Lincoln?
 
2022-07-02 6:41:11 PM  

TheOmni: I've read that several times and I'm still trying to parse it. Things would be mostly fine if not for the major things that define the system? Is he being serious or is this a joke? Or is he just saying if we resolved those major issues then most other issues would be resolved by that? I don't think the idea of "if you fix big problems, a lot of the small problems will go away too" is that unpopular of an opinion. I truly don't understand what he's trying to convey.


I assumed it was a NYT pitchbot satire tweet until I double checked.  Jesus what a dumbass.
 
2022-07-02 7:07:18 PM  
Everything would be great if things didn't suck so much.
 
2022-07-02 7:28:14 PM  
What useful skill does Nate Silver provide that he should continue to be housed and fed when we skip over the coming recession and dive head first into the next economic depression?
 
2022-07-02 7:40:38 PM  
Nate is right. When things are working well then both the Klan and BLM have equal say and sway in American politics and that's good and correct

/s obviously
 
2022-07-02 8:03:59 PM  

TheOmni: Earguy: Less gerrymandering?

It's like bug parts in food. You can't realistically remove it completely, so you pick a PPM limit and call anything below that good.


Like my C.O. used to tell me "you don't pick the fly shiat out of the pepper".
 
2022-07-02 8:25:54 PM  
I'm ashamed that I used to think Nate Silver was pretty smart.

I mean, he was when he was in his lane. Now he's just another moronic pundit.
 
2022-07-02 9:07:33 PM  
Wow!  If only we'd thought of that.
 
2022-07-02 9:07:45 PM  
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln...
 
2022-07-02 9:09:57 PM  
It would be a worthy cause for 538 to define exactly what the US Government representatives for each state should look like as well as exactly what polling is on issues by district / region and exactly how representatives are betraying the will of the people.  I think we all already know but I think I'd be horrified to find out the level of detail

/But I think they'd still just rather tell us how unwrong they were in 2016.
 
2022-07-02 9:10:40 PM  
What the fark are you talking about, Jesse?
 
2022-07-02 9:11:00 PM  
Our problems would be fine if we had different problems?

That's some crack analysis there. I mean, literally on crack.
 
2022-07-02 9:11:16 PM  

Earguy: Less gerrymandering?


fewer
 
2022-07-02 9:11:52 PM  
Yeah, the problem is our political system does not reflect the will of the people, you dumb twit. Thanks for finally catching up.
 
2022-07-02 9:12:00 PM  

Ambivalence: And if my grandma had wheels, she'd be a bike.


Even without wheels, the town rides her often.

/just like your mother, Trebek!
 
2022-07-02 9:12:39 PM  
If only my hand looked like Mila Kunis.
 
2022-07-02 9:13:01 PM  
Shut.
The.
fark.
Up.
Nate.
 
2022-07-02 9:13:14 PM  

Earguy: Less gerrymandering?


Fewer
 
2022-07-02 9:13:39 PM  

TheOmni: Earguy: Less gerrymandering?

It's like bug parts in food. You can't realistically remove it completely, so you pick a PPM limit and call anything below that good.


Don't give our current SCOTUS more ideas.
 
2022-07-02 9:14:11 PM  

TomDooley: Earguy: Less gerrymandering?

Fewer


Don't call him that yet!
 
2022-07-02 9:14:55 PM  
If this zeppelin weren't on fire, we wouldn't be crashing.
-Captain of the Hindenburg, possibly
 
2022-07-02 9:17:12 PM  
Quants: Cluelessly counting people and offering no practical solutions, since Pascal figured out probability for dice.
 
2022-07-02 9:17:46 PM  
E C should be put to a national vote of staying or get rid of it .. Probably have more people voting if they felt their vote meant something ..
 
2022-07-02 9:18:02 PM  

Ambivalence: And if my grandma had wheels, she'd be a bike.


Or in a wheelchair.
 
2022-07-02 9:19:20 PM  
Nate Silver is basically everything Cathy O'Neil warns us about. It's not like we haven't been forewarned. It's not like we haven't been offered useful alternatives...

images-na.ssl-images-amazon.comView Full Size
 
2022-07-02 9:20:29 PM  

mikalmd: E C should be put to a national vote of staying or get rid of it .. Probably have more people voting if they felt their vote meant something ..


But do you want that? Remember what happened when women got the franchise? That's right - the white ones in Florida put Donald Trump in the White House.

Think about it.
 
2022-07-02 9:20:35 PM  
Yes, our representative government would work better if it were designed to actually be representative and not be a minority rule system.

Kinda Captain Obvious territory, but at the same time it's at the root of our national dysfunction - and why a lot of people have, are, and will needlessly die.
 
2022-07-02 9:22:39 PM  
It is amazing how dumb Nate Silver has become.
 
2022-07-02 9:23:39 PM  

Gubbo: I'm ashamed that I used to think Nate Silver was pretty smart.

I mean, he was when he was in his lane. Now he's just another moronic pundit.


He's still smart. It's just become popular to hate on him because we've had some unexpectedly bad electoral outcomes (that were still within the margin of error.)

It's easy to look at recent outcomes and come to the conclusion that democracy just can't work with so many dumb people. But that's wrong. Dumb people are an immutable fact. All he is saying is that recent events aren't due to a failure of democracy, but due to the fact that our system isn't democratic (enough).

And really it's just the filibuster. Yes the Senate, the gerrymandered House and the EC are all antidemocratic, but without the filibuster we would be moving forward right now. And we could perhaps fix the other problems.
 
TWX
2022-07-02 9:23:59 PM  

TheOmni: I've read that several times and I'm still trying to parse it. Things would be mostly fine if not for the major things that define the system? Is he being serious or is this a joke? Or is he just saying if we resolved those major issues then most other issues would be resolved by that? I don't think the idea of "if you fix big problems, a lot of the small problems will go away too" is that unpopular of an opinion. I truly don't understand what he's trying to convey.


The whole 538 thing is based on a law that capped the number of reps in the House of Representatives at 435 because the hall they meet in isn't exactly large.  This means that low-population states have outsized representation in both the House and in the Electoral College, made worse by a winner-take-all approach to awarding Electoral Votes. The winner-take-all approach used in nearly all states incentivizes state legislatures and elections officials to try to manipulate voter eligibility.

Fix that 435 problem and the rural states would lose a lot of their power.  But they'd need a bigger place to meet or some other rules to allow a full session without all being in the same room.
 
2022-07-02 9:35:25 PM  
The power of Christ compels you...
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-07-02 9:36:16 PM  
How can money hold any value when Nate Silver is given so much for insight like this?
 
2022-07-02 9:36:24 PM  
The core of what he's saying is that if the Republican party hadn't completely broken our system of government, we'd be fine.  They've made the House completely unrepresentative of America as a whole. They've made the judicial branch FAR more powerful than the other two, simply by making it another arm of the Republican party through decades of work with the heritage foundation, to place Conservative judges in lifetime appointments.  They've gamed the electoral college twice now to get Presidents elected who should never have been allowed to see the Oval Office with a tour group.  Republicans figured out a long time ago how to break the government to allow them and their dying party to hold onto power...and their next step is probably violence.
 
2022-07-02 9:36:49 PM  

TWX: TheOmni: I've read that several times and I'm still trying to parse it. Things would be mostly fine if not for the major things that define the system? Is he being serious or is this a joke? Or is he just saying if we resolved those major issues then most other issues would be resolved by that? I don't think the idea of "if you fix big problems, a lot of the small problems will go away too" is that unpopular of an opinion. I truly don't understand what he's trying to convey.

The whole 538 thing is based on a law that capped the number of reps in the House of Representatives at 435 because the hall they meet in isn't exactly large.  This means that low-population states have outsized representation in both the House and in the Electoral College, made worse by a winner-take-all approach to awarding Electoral Votes. The winner-take-all approach used in nearly all states incentivizes state legislatures and elections officials to try to manipulate voter eligibility.

Fix that 435 problem and the rural states would lose a lot of their power.  But they'd need a bigger place to meet or some other rules to allow a full session without all being in the same room.


The Senate is much more of a problem than the House or the EC. It's not even close.
 
2022-07-02 9:37:33 PM  
"See, actually, in a way, Jeb Bush did win the nomination in 2016..."
 
2022-07-02 9:38:07 PM  
*country has stupid constitution*

'if we only didn't have this stupid constitution, we could fix things.'

*stupid constitution still reigns*

'i'm sure if we just fiddle around the edges...'

*everything that makes stupid constitution stupid still in place'
 
2022-07-02 9:40:08 PM  

rzrwiresunrise: It is amazing how dumb Nate Silver has become.


Stats require inspiration as much as any other art. They're inductive reasoning, not deductive reasoning, so all they really tell us us how we should be sceptical about a relationship between x number of  things.

Once a quant runs out of inspiration they burn out, and just spin the same narratives using the same formulae. If they don't research more social theories and participate in more activism (outside of direct politics - I mean like volunteer or work for causes instead of partisans), then they stagnate as badly as partian wonks.

Nate Silver has all the resources to crank out all kinds of analysis. He's totally uninspired. He's bored. He's phoning it in every day. His breakfat is probably one buttermilk Eggo waffle, plain, and a black coffee. His 538 online girlfriends are probably tired of how all he does is watch Walking Dead with them on Zoom and he doesn't even move his eyeballs or eat his popcorn while he does. You can just tell from his hard sell writing style. Nate Silver needs to buy a cowboy hat, a bathrobe, and move to a trailer on the beach.
 
2022-07-02 9:42:33 PM  
It's such an internet thing to preface a shiatty take with "uNpOLUR oPInION" and then pretend that people are shooting it down because they're all salty little biatches.
 
2022-07-02 9:42:59 PM  
Tarl3k:

The core of what he's saying is that if the Republican party hadn't completely broken our system of government, we'd be fine.

That would depend on how you define "fine".
 
2022-07-02 9:43:59 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: rzrwiresunrise: It is amazing how dumb Nate Silver has become.

Stats require inspiration as much as any other art. They're inductive reasoning, not deductive reasoning, so all they really tell us us how we should be sceptical about a relationship between x number of  things.

Once a quant runs out of inspiration they burn out, and just spin the same narratives using the same formulae. If they don't research more social theories and participate in more activism (outside of direct politics - I mean like volunteer or work for causes instead of partisans), then they stagnate as badly as partian wonks.

Nate Silver has all the resources to crank out all kinds of analysis. He's totally uninspired. He's bored. He's phoning it in every day. His breakfat is probably one buttermilk Eggo waffle, plain, and a black coffee. His 538 online girlfriends are probably tired of how all he does is watch Walking Dead with them on Zoom and he doesn't even move his eyeballs or eat his popcorn while he does. You can just tell from his hard sell writing style. Nate Silver needs to buy a cowboy hat, a bathrobe, and move to a trailer on the beach.


Your posts are like poetry to me. I can enjoy them even if I'm never quite sure what they mean.
 
TWX
2022-07-02 9:44:36 PM  

fruit flies like a banana: TWX: TheOmni: I've read that several times and I'm still trying to parse it. Things would be mostly fine if not for the major things that define the system? Is he being serious or is this a joke? Or is he just saying if we resolved those major issues then most other issues would be resolved by that? I don't think the idea of "if you fix big problems, a lot of the small problems will go away too" is that unpopular of an opinion. I truly don't understand what he's trying to convey.

The whole 538 thing is based on a law that capped the number of reps in the House of Representatives at 435 because the hall they meet in isn't exactly large.  This means that low-population states have outsized representation in both the House and in the Electoral College, made worse by a winner-take-all approach to awarding Electoral Votes. The winner-take-all approach used in nearly all states incentivizes state legislatures and elections officials to try to manipulate voter eligibility.

Fix that 435 problem and the rural states would lose a lot of their power.  But they'd need a bigger place to meet or some other rules to allow a full session without all being in the same room.

The Senate is much more of a problem than the House or the EC. It's not even close.


Believe it or not I am aware of that.  The number of Representatives could be changed with a simple law.  Changing the number of Senators would require an amendment to the Constitution.
 
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