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(G Elliott Morris)   That story about 1 million voters switching their party registration to Republican? Turns out it was just a misunderstanding of how data works   (gelliottmorris.substack.com) divider line
    More: Followup, Elections, Voter turnout, Election, voter registration data, Voting, Voter registration, Associated Press, list of people  
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2753 clicks; posted to Politics » on 30 Jun 2022 at 9:31 PM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-06-30 6:15:05 PM  
I switched from independent to Republican but will continue to vote mostly Democrat. But for their gerrymandering porpoises, I sure like a Red voter in New York State.

Plus they'll come to my house and call me now. That's gonna be fun for me
 
2022-06-30 6:16:40 PM  
Well...damage done.  Folks already believe the story.
 
2022-06-30 6:40:59 PM  
Just more background "justification" for their outrage when they lose and claim the election was stolen. There were some of these kinds of stories before the 2020 election as well.
 
2022-06-30 8:30:25 PM  
It's shiat like this that decreases folks trust in the media.
 
2022-06-30 8:42:06 PM  
Sure it was a mistake and not intended?
 
2022-06-30 9:04:16 PM  

spongeboob: Sure it was a mistake and not intended?


They knew exactly what they were doing.
 
2022-06-30 9:10:46 PM  
I also doubt there are nearly as many "independents" as people who register as such.  Most people I have run into anyway, (I canvassed one year) registered independent because they didn't want the parties sending them crap.
 
2022-06-30 9:33:38 PM  
Lol. Mix up.
 
2022-06-30 9:37:37 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-06-30 9:42:40 PM  
Why in the name of Jesus would I do that?
 
2022-06-30 9:43:01 PM  
Republicans misunderstanding/misrepresenting data??

fark me this has gotta be a first.
 
2022-06-30 9:43:05 PM  
That's not how Data works!

img.wattpad.comView Full Size
 
2022-06-30 9:43:41 PM  
Shhhh. Let them have their baseless confidence.
 
2022-06-30 9:43:55 PM  

Flyinglemur: I switched from independent to Republican but will continue to vote mostly Democrat. But for their gerrymandering porpoises, I sure like a Red voter in New York State.

Plus they'll come to my house and call me now. That's gonna be fun for me


farking hyperpolitical dolphins.  You give them some fish and next thing you know your vote doesn't count and they are like EEEEE-EEEEE-EEEE.
 
2022-06-30 9:46:37 PM  

aleister_greynight: I also doubt there are nearly as many "independents" as people who register as such.  Most people I have run into anyway, (I canvassed one year) registered independent because they didn't want the parties sending them crap.


Yeah, I'm registered as an Independent; but I change it to Democrat, so I can vote in the Primaries. Then change it back. In Deep Blue (western) Oregon, that's the only way to actually have some say in who gets elected.
 
2022-06-30 9:49:21 PM  

Telephone Sanitizer Second Class: That's not how Data works!

[img.wattpad.com image 336x254]


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-06-30 9:50:39 PM  
FAKE NEWS!
 
2022-06-30 9:52:32 PM  
I still get a lot of Republican fundraising mail because I voted Republican in the 2016 Washington state primaries. The Democrats did a caucus so the actual primary vote was pointless, while with the Republcan primary I voted against Trump, who I didn't want anywhere near the White House.
 
2022-06-30 9:53:16 PM  
Who exactly the point of "party registration"? Most democracies don't do this, and all it does is offer opportunities for corruption.
 
2022-06-30 9:53:47 PM  

natazha: aleister_greynight: I also doubt there are nearly as many "independents" as people who register as such.  Most people I have run into anyway, (I canvassed one year) registered independent because they didn't want the parties sending them crap.

Yeah, I'm registered as an Independent; but I change it to Democrat, so I can vote in the Primaries. Then change it back. In Deep Blue (western) Oregon, that's the only way to actually have some say in who gets elected.


That's why I switched to Democratic, closed primaries.
 
2022-06-30 9:54:28 PM  
Whew! False alarm. Guess I can sit this one out.
 
2022-06-30 9:56:11 PM  

aleister_greynight: natazha: aleister_greynight: I also doubt there are nearly as many "independents" as people who register as such.  Most people I have run into anyway, (I canvassed one year) registered independent because they didn't want the parties sending them crap.

Yeah, I'm registered as an Independent; but I change it to Democrat, so I can vote in the Primaries. Then change it back. In Deep Blue (western) Oregon, that's the only way to actually have some say in who gets elected.

That's why I switched to Democratic, closed primaries.


In the states which comprise the Ninth Circuit, closed primaries are prohibited.
 
2022-06-30 9:57:03 PM  

Flyinglemur: I switched from independent to Republican but will continue to vote mostly Democrat. But for their gerrymandering porpoises, I sure like a Red voter in New York State.

Plus they'll come to my house and call me now. That's gonna be fun for me


I did the same thing. The heritage foundation mailers are the best. They have a postage paid envelope to send your donation back in. I donate fish tank gravel.
 
2022-06-30 9:59:03 PM  

whither_apophis: [Fark user image image 425x566]


Tweets like this make me angry. I know I should feel sad for her but all I feel is helpless. Where did she look online? Whixh state is she in? Where can other people who might be impacted check their registration or contact their representatives to complain?

If you're in NY State, you can check your registration here.
 
2022-06-30 10:02:35 PM  

Petey4335: Telephone Sanitizer Second Class: That's not how Data works!

[img.wattpad.com image 336x254]

[Fark user image image 400x300]


Oh, is that the new Android phone? I hear you can get it with unlimited Data.
 
2022-06-30 10:04:16 PM  

GardenWeasel: spongeboob: Sure it was a mistake and not intended?

They knew exactly what they were doing.


The AP generally doesn't run in that direction (unlike, admittedly, an awful lot of other news orgs). But one of the downsides of having a huge amount of data on every damned thing in the world at our fingertips is that anyone with a background in evaluating data from one field suddenly believes that they can interpret data from every field. Journalists believe that they're election minutiae experts. Election minutiae experts develop suddenly-onset, late-stage Boomer brain and believe that they're epidemiologists. And so on and so forth. Just because you can make an Excel table or fit a curve doesn't mean you understand the vagaries of the numbers you're working with.

Sometimes, before publishing a thing, it's worth asking an actual expert whether this is how the thing works, because the correction is never getting a fraction of the attention of the original panic.
 
2022-06-30 10:06:54 PM  
Misinterpreted data is often the result of a search for something to promote outrage
 
2022-06-30 10:11:35 PM  
They're just priming the vote stealing accusation pump for the primaries.
 
2022-06-30 10:27:25 PM  
 I realized fairly early on that if I ever did anything interesting or important, it might be written off because I was a "card-carrying Democrat " since ____ year.  Switched to Independent

/This was before social media meant you got tracked down for even minor things.
//came very close to being accidentally registered with the American Independent party in CA.
///I never did anything interesting or important. So, I win?
 
2022-06-30 10:30:31 PM  

aleister_greynight: I also doubt there are nearly as many "independents" as people who register as such.  Most people I have run into anyway, (I canvassed one year) registered independent because they didn't want the parties sending them crap.


That, and I don't like the idea of being on a list that could come back and bite me in an increasingly uncertain future.
For the time being it's likely just paranoia.
I hope it stays that way.
 
2022-06-30 10:32:28 PM  

raerae1980: Well...damage done.  Folks already believe the story.


Fark their feelings?

If they're gonna play fast and loose, well, turnabout is fair play...
 
2022-06-30 10:33:37 PM  
thanks, predictive models spouted as fact!
 
2022-06-30 10:36:09 PM  

ifky: did the same thing. The heritage foundation mailers are the best. They have a postage paid envelope to send your donation back in. I donate fish tank gravel.


I usually fill it with dog poop.
 
2022-06-30 10:36:19 PM  
Fun fact: registering as an independent in Arizona means you get all the mailings from both parties. A handful of Dem flyers and a ton of batshiat crazy Republican mailers.
 
2022-06-30 10:37:40 PM  
AndTheyAllLived:///I never did anything interesting or important. So, I win?

The real heroes are the people who remember to go all the way to third slashie.
 
2022-06-30 10:38:20 PM  

Decorus: ifky: did the same thing. The heritage foundation mailers are the best. They have a postage paid envelope to send your donation back in. I donate fish tank gravel.

I usually fill it with dog poop.


I keep trying, but I'm not a dog, so I only get halfway there.
 
2022-06-30 10:40:30 PM  
1 million Republicans endorsed Covid-19, downloaded the update and quit voting, forever

/huzzah
 
2022-06-30 10:55:52 PM  

2farknfunny: Misinterpreted data is often the result of a search for something to promote outrage


Sometimes, but not always. 85% of misinterpreted data (according to a meta-analysis of 75 studies that I just made up) came about because some economist got bored of their bullshiat field and decided to take all of their expertise in regression analysis over to some discipline they didn't understand in the slightest, at which point they farked that discipline's shiat up for a decade or more before the study was finally debunked and cast aside.

To receive an economics degree, one should need to sign a legally-binding document swearing to never so much as glance at a research paper in another discipline, with the death penalty applicable if you try to do actual field studies.
 
2022-06-30 10:55:57 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: Decorus: ifky: did the same thing. The heritage foundation mailers are the best. They have a postage paid envelope to send your donation back in. I donate fish tank gravel.

I usually fill it with dog poop.

I keep trying, but I'm not a dog, so I only get halfway there.

Make out a check in the amount of zero dollars and zero cents (0.00).
 
2022-06-30 10:57:06 PM  

spongeboob: Sure it was a mistake and not intended?


I'm as suspicious of the 'liberal' media as the next hollow eyed 21st citizen, but I've seen dumb data-related mistakes over and over from ppl and organisations who should know better.
 
2022-06-30 11:05:22 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-06-30 11:06:51 PM  
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2022-06-30 11:08:26 PM  
All Republicans lie. Now, and forever.
 
2022-06-30 11:10:04 PM  
It's definitely going to be a red wave.

Sure COVID has disproportionately ravaged conservative strongholds, the majority of the country doesn't want Taliban laws against women, practically every GQP party member is on record praising Putin immediately before his terrorist state caused gas to go to $5, and there is continuing evidence of TFG's direct involvement in attempting to murder his political opponents, but don't worry, it's going to be a lousy election for Democrats.
 
2022-06-30 11:20:32 PM  

andrewagill: whither_apophis: [Fark user image image 425x566]

Tweets like this make me angry. I know I should feel sad for her but all I feel is helpless. Where did she look online? Whixh state is she in? Where can other people who might be impacted check their registration or contact their representatives to complain?

If you're in NY State, you can check your registration here.


As we enter election season, I do love that a lot of sub Reddits have the election info bot that posts a link to help you find information for your state.

I also appreciate that my county supervisor of elections office sends out mailers letting you know your status. But Orange County FL is one of the last bastions of Democracy left in Florida.
 
2022-06-30 11:50:34 PM  

ifky: Flyinglemur: I switched from independent to Republican but will continue to vote mostly Democrat. But for their gerrymandering porpoises, I sure like a Red voter in New York State.

Plus they'll come to my house and call me now. That's gonna be fun for me

I did the same thing. The heritage foundation mailers are the best. They have a postage paid envelope to send your donation back in. I donate fish tank gravel.


Where do I sign up? My cat's litter box wants to support the cause.
 
2022-07-01 12:02:59 AM  

DesertCoyote: Fun fact: registering as an independent in Arizona means you get all the mailings from both parties. A handful of Dem flyers and a ton of batshiat crazy Republican mailers.


In college I randomly decided to just put down "other" under race.  The next thing I knew I was getting constant emails from the Black Student Union.
 
2022-07-01 12:46:46 AM  
And trying to collate the different electronic voter registration databases into one usable database is a Sisyphean task.

I'd be surprised if each state had a standard format vs each county.

Classic GIGO...
 
2022-07-01 1:10:20 AM  

Bungles: Who exactly the point of "party registration"? Most democracies don't do this, and all it does is offer opportunities for corruption.


I believe you've answered your own question.
 
2022-07-01 2:33:24 AM  

Zul the Magnificent: Bungles: Who exactly the point of "party registration"? Most democracies don't do this, and all it does is offer opportunities for corruption.

I believe you've answered your own question.



I was apparently also drunk when writing it.
 
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