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(Guardian)   Seattle and Vancouver may become affordable   (theguardian.com) divider line
    More: Scary, Earthquake, Plate tectonics, new study, garbage bag of subduction zones, severity of a tsunami, author of the study, outer wedge, Pulitzer prize  
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6462 clicks; posted to Main » on 07 Jun 2022 at 6:35 PM (25 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-06-07 5:49:02 PM  
Seattle is pretty safe from a tsunami as it essentially lies in a mountain valley between Olympic and Cascade ranges.  A tsunami would have to make a right turn in Puget Sound and travel really long ways afterwards. It's not going to occur. Other costal towns are of course more problematic. The Cascadia fault runs from deep in the ocean to under the Cascadia range. Unlike the vertical San Andreas fault, the Cascadia fault line runs diagonally across much of  the PNW.
kids-fun-science.comView Full Size
Also, Tacoma Washington used to be part of Puget Sound itself until the formally 16,000 ft high Mt Rainier filled in Tacoma during the Osceola Mudflow eruption (sorry Enunclaw).
historylink.orgView Full Size
 
2022-06-07 6:04:04 PM  
Tsunami in Seattle? No, but a damaging tidal surge could be bad news for waterfront areas and would probably cause some loss of life for those in the wrong place at the wrong time. That's why it pays to know the tide tables for your location and GTF away from the shore if you see water receding from the shore unexpectedly.
 
2022-06-07 6:41:24 PM  
Better get in on that real estate now

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-06-07 6:42:13 PM  
Scientists predict that if the Chicxulub meteor falls again, Austin TX could have affordable housing.
 
2022-06-07 6:42:53 PM  
"current estimates point to about a 15% chance of a 9.0-magnitude earthquake in the next 50 years."

I'll get right on that worrying.
 
2022-06-07 6:46:03 PM  
Seattle is 100 miles inland, subs.   A tsunami isn't going to damage it much.  Coastal areas are going to all be under water for a bit, and the lahars from the volcanoes going off, on the other hand, are going to lay waste to anyone living in the river valleys.

Which ain't me.
 
2022-06-07 6:51:35 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-06-07 6:53:41 PM  
People who know more about this than I do, what could be the impact in the form of an earthquake on Seattle if the Cascadia fault line erupts? Maybe they don't get the tidal wave but I'm assuming the earthquake would be insane.
 
2022-06-07 7:00:05 PM  
Coastal towns in Oregon and Washington are going to be wiped off the map. The science has been done. A Fukishima strength tsunami is going to happen. It's just a matter of time. It might be 300 years from now. It might be tomorrow. But not long, in geologic time.

It's crazy to drive through a city like Aberdeen and know that all the low ground will be hit. Or Ocean Shores, on a long low peninsula with only one way out. I know they're starting to build some tsunami evacuation structures but WA should really get serious about protecting its coast from the inevitable. So far, all they've done is put up signs to tell you which way to go to evacuate. So you have 20 minutes after the big 9.0 to clear the entire population from the low areas on roads that are probably damaged from the quake, while probably dealing with more aftershocks. Nightmare fuel. Not too worried about tsunami here but the quake could damage the Tacoma Narrows bridge, which would be a problem.
 
2022-06-07 7:00:20 PM  
I had a similar thought yesterday.  We're a wee bit nervous about going to a mall because of all the farking mass shootings happening, and we thought, well, if one happens, we'll go the next day, because no one will be there!

Yes, we're horrible people.
 
2022-06-07 7:04:03 PM  
Well, that's nice. Someone ought to tell them where all the stuff from a Rainier eruption is gonna go...
 
2022-06-07 7:08:08 PM  
I live about a mile from Puget Sound, but I'm like 400 feet up so I'm not too worried, the quake would suck though.
 
2022-06-07 7:09:11 PM  
Learn to swim.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-06-07 7:10:10 PM  

fsbilly: Well, that's nice. Someone ought to tell them where all the stuff from a Rainier eruption is gonna go...


Tacoma and Olympia on the west side.  That's where the Puyallup and Nisqually rivers enter the sound.

The ash is going east, just like it did when St. Hellens erupted.
 
2022-06-07 7:10:25 PM  

4seasons85!: People who know more about this than I do, what could be the impact in the form of an earthquake on Seattle if the Cascadia fault line erupts? Maybe they don't get the tidal wave but I'm assuming the earthquake would be insane.


I plug this guy often enough that people might suspect he's my uncle or something but he's just a good explainer. Will everything west of I-90 really be toast? They can extrapolate numbers really well by using data from the Fukushima quake. Japan had seismometers and GPS receivers that measure ground deformation all over the place. As I recall, Seattle is far enough away that it shouldn't get too much damage but it's been a while since I watched the video. There is some crazy stuff about how much Ocean Shores will drop. I should rewatch.
 
2022-06-07 7:12:27 PM  

Rent Party: Seattle is 100 miles inland, subs.   A tsunami isn't going to damage it much.  Coastal areas are going to all be under water for a bit, and the lahars from the volcanoes going off, on the other hand, are going to lay waste to anyone living in the river valleys.

Which ain't me.


There's also the slight problem that any tsunami waters have to go around the peninsula and through the Puget Sound islands in order to hit Seattle. I'm not saying it's impossible, just by that point most of the damaging waters would be fairly heavily slowed down.
 
2022-06-07 7:13:34 PM  
No, real estate would just become harder to come by and prices would go up.

/ Disaster Capitalism
 
2022-06-07 7:13:35 PM  

CordycepsInYourBrain: Coastal towns in Oregon and Washington are going to be wiped off the map. The science has been done. A Fukishima strength tsunami is going to happen. It's just a matter of time. It might be 300 years from now. It might be tomorrow. But not long, in geologic time.

It's crazy to drive through a city like Aberdeen and know that all the low ground will be hit. Or Ocean Shores, on a long low peninsula with only one way out. I know they're starting to build some tsunami evacuation structures but WA should really get serious about protecting its coast from the inevitable. So far, all they've done is put up signs to tell you which way to go to evacuate. So you have 20 minutes after the big 9.0 to clear the entire population from the low areas on roads that are probably damaged from the quake, while probably dealing with more aftershocks. Nightmare fuel. Not too worried about tsunami here but the quake could damage the Tacoma Narrows bridge, which would be a problem.



"The fact of the matter is that if a tsunami occurs tomorrow, we are going to lose all of our children"
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/us/tsunami-northwest-evacuation-towers.html

/btw the New Yorker article linked in TFA is very good
//I read it a couple of years ago
 
2022-06-07 7:15:54 PM  
"...and current estimates point to about a 15% chance of a 9.0-magnitude earthquake in the next 50 years."

Definitely time to start topless Tuesdays in the north west.
 
2022-06-07 7:22:54 PM  
Man, the media really likes fear mongering.
 
2022-06-07 7:25:53 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size


I must have misunderstood.
 
2022-06-07 7:26:52 PM  
I'm not getting my hopes again after Giant Meteor let us down.
 
2022-06-07 7:27:37 PM  

CordycepsInYourBrain: 4seasons85!: People who know more about this than I do, what could be the impact in the form of an earthquake on Seattle if the Cascadia fault line erupts? Maybe they don't get the tidal wave but I'm assuming the earthquake would be insane.

I plug this guy often enough that people might suspect he's my uncle or something but he's just a good explainer. Will everything west of I-90 really be toast? They can extrapolate numbers really well by using data from the Fukushima quake. Japan had seismometers and GPS receivers that measure ground deformation all over the place. As I recall, Seattle is far enough away that it shouldn't get too much damage but it's been a while since I watched the video. There is some crazy stuff about how much Ocean Shores will drop. I should rewatch.


Thanks for this, I'll watch it in a little bit. I live in the middle of grays harbor, 10 minutes away from Aberdeen, so I'm guessing I'm screwed.
 
2022-06-07 7:27:55 PM  

CordycepsInYourBrain: Coastal towns in Oregon and Washington are going to be wiped off the map. The science has been done. A Fukishima strength tsunami is going to happen. It's just a matter of time. It might be 300 years from now. It might be tomorrow. But not long, in geologic time.

It's crazy to drive through a city like Aberdeen and know that all the low ground will be hit. Or Ocean Shores, on a long low peninsula with only one way out. I know they're starting to build some tsunami evacuation structures but WA should really get serious about protecting its coast from the inevitable. So far, all they've done is put up signs to tell you which way to go to evacuate. So you have 20 minutes after the big 9.0 to clear the entire population from the low areas on roads that are probably damaged from the quake, while probably dealing with more aftershocks. Nightmare fuel. Not too worried about tsunami here but the quake could damage the Tacoma Narrows bridge, which would be a problem.


Luckily nothing bad has ever happened to the Tacoma Narrows bridge.
 
2022-06-07 7:30:39 PM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: CordycepsInYourBrain: Coastal towns in Oregon and Washington are going to be wiped off the map. The science has been done. A Fukishima strength tsunami is going to happen. It's just a matter of time. It might be 300 years from now. It might be tomorrow. But not long, in geologic time.

It's crazy to drive through a city like Aberdeen and know that all the low ground will be hit. Or Ocean Shores, on a long low peninsula with only one way out. I know they're starting to build some tsunami evacuation structures but WA should really get serious about protecting its coast from the inevitable. So far, all they've done is put up signs to tell you which way to go to evacuate. So you have 20 minutes after the big 9.0 to clear the entire population from the low areas on roads that are probably damaged from the quake, while probably dealing with more aftershocks. Nightmare fuel. Not too worried about tsunami here but the quake could damage the Tacoma Narrows bridge, which would be a problem.


"The fact of the matter is that if a tsunami occurs tomorrow, we are going to lose all of our children"
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/us/tsunami-northwest-evacuation-towers.html

/btw the New Yorker article linked in TFA is very good
//I read it a couple of years ago


Thanks, this is an excellent article. The author really does a wonderful job in explaining this clearly, especially the hand analogy for the tectonic plates.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one
 
2022-06-07 7:34:24 PM  

CordycepsInYourBrain: 4seasons85!: People who know more about this than I do, what could be the impact in the form of an earthquake on Seattle if the Cascadia fault line erupts? Maybe they don't get the tidal wave but I'm assuming the earthquake would be insane.

I plug this guy often enough that people might suspect he's my uncle or something but he's just a good explainer. Will everything west of I-90 really be toast? They can extrapolate numbers really well by using data from the Fukushima quake. Japan had seismometers and GPS receivers that measure ground deformation all over the place. As I recall, Seattle is far enough away that it shouldn't get too much damage but it's been a while since I watched the video. There is some crazy stuff about how much Ocean Shores will drop. I should rewatch.


Love watching Nick ramble on. He's definitely an interesting presenter.
 
2022-06-07 7:34:27 PM  

Pinnacle Point: Seattle is pretty safe from a tsunami as it essentially lies in a mountain valley between Olympic and Cascade ranges.  A tsunami would have to make a right turn in Puget Sound and travel really long ways afterwards. It's not going to occur. Other costal towns are of course more problematic. The Cascadia fault runs from deep in the ocean to under the Cascadia range. Unlike the vertical San Andreas fault, the Cascadia fault line runs diagonally across much of  the PNW.
[kids-fun-science.com image 550x246]Also, Tacoma Washington used to be part of Puget Sound itself until the formally 16,000 ft high Mt Rainier filled in Tacoma during the Osceola Mudflow eruption (sorry Enunclaw).
. [historylink.org image 260x299]


Seattle lies in a valley formed by retreating glaciers and is built on till. A 8.0+ will cause massive ground liquefaction in non-bedrock soil aka till. Also Puget Sound is a bathtub so the new word of the day is seiche.  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seiche
To say nothing of a Cascadia earthquake triggering all the shallower faults underlying the whole PNW

/tl;dr we're still boned
 
2022-06-07 7:36:56 PM  
They told me I could work from home. So now I live in Detroit.
 
2022-06-07 7:39:34 PM  
The earth has been around about 4B years. We've been around, arguably, around 300,000 to 6,000 years. Natural disasters occur all the time. Planetary extinction events have happened hundreds of times that we know of. Like it or not, human beings are not the end-all be-all of everything ever evolved. One way or another we're going to be wiped out and replaced. At this point we have the resources and technology to ensure our survival, but we are just too stupid to care. Sure, we're out of water, but that almond milk espresso is just too damn tasty to give up. We could pool our resources and conserve but your god is a doody head, so we won't share with you heathens. The end is coming, sure, but isn't it nice to know we added value to the shareholders on the way out?
 
2022-06-07 7:54:03 PM  
Seattle and Vancouver may become affordable

But all the mortgages will be under water.
 
Azz
2022-06-07 7:55:50 PM  

Billy Liar: No, real estate would just become harder to come by and prices would go up.

/ Disaster Capitalism


Found Naomi Klein's handle
 
2022-06-07 7:56:41 PM  

SurelyShirley: Learn to swim.

[Fark user image image 276x182]


This is now a TOOL thread?

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-06-07 8:00:05 PM  

Super Chronic: Better get in on that real estate now

[Fark user image image 350x219]


Otisburg?!?
 
2022-06-07 8:03:18 PM  
Great.  First a tsunami then the riffraff will start moving in.
 
2022-06-07 8:04:32 PM  

Rent Party: fsbilly: Well, that's nice. Someone ought to tell them where all the stuff from a Rainier eruption is gonna go...

Tacoma and Olympia on the west side.  That's where the Puyallup and Nisqually rivers enter the sound.

The ash is going east, just like it did when St. Hellens erupted.


We got some last time (about 1/8 inch or so). Damned freaky watching that cloud roll over us (Lewiston, ID), thinking it was a huge thunderstorm coming in. Spent about a week going around the neighborhood afterward, gathering up as much "volcano dirt" as we could, to take to our relatives in Indiana that summer.
 
2022-06-07 8:06:14 PM  

Priapetic: Otisburg?!?


c.tenor.comView Full Size
 
2022-06-07 8:13:31 PM  

Rent Party: fsbilly: Well, that's nice. Someone ought to tell them where all the stuff from a Rainier eruption is gonna go...

Tacoma and Olympia on the west side.  That's where the Puyallup and Nisqually rivers enter the sound.

The ash is going east, just like it did when St. Hellens erupted.


It went North too. I remember we had a good inch of ash on our cars south of Vancouver, BC

I was a disappointed kid when St Helen's erupted and there was no lava. Then we got to read all about Vesuvius at school and learned all about how scary ash can be on a large scale.
 
2022-06-07 8:30:31 PM  
I think a lot of folks don't realize what the Puget sound and surrounding landscape is like.  I live on the ocean on the west side of Vancouver Island.  Where the mountains meet the sea.  That means even though I am on the ocean I am some 60'+ above sea level.  Not that it matters much, Vancouver Island is it's own tectonic plate.  When the big one goes we are literally going to blast off.  More likely to die from lack of oxygen than a big wave.
 
2022-06-07 8:31:35 PM  

gameshowhost: [Fark user image 474x327]


Right?  They got some major ass denial issues about bigotry and corporatism that drastically impact the quality of life and prevent them from dealing with the problems.
 
2022-06-07 8:34:31 PM  
c.tenor.comView Full Size
 
2022-06-07 8:41:15 PM  

CordycepsInYourBrain: Coastal towns in Oregon and Washington are going to be wiped off the map. The science has been done. A Fukishima strength tsunami is going to happen. It's just a matter of time. It might be 300 years from now. It might be tomorrow. But not long, in geologic time.

It's crazy to drive through a city like Aberdeen and know that all the low ground will be hit. Or Ocean Shores, on a long low peninsula with only one way out. I know they're starting to build some tsunami evacuation structures but WA should really get serious about protecting its coast from the inevitable. So far, all they've done is put up signs to tell you which way to go to evacuate. So you have 20 minutes after the big 9.0 to clear the entire population from the low areas on roads that are probably damaged from the quake, while probably dealing with more aftershocks. Nightmare fuel. Not too worried about tsunami here but the quake could damage the Tacoma Narrows bridge, which would be a problem.


My sister lives in Rockaway Beach.  They do evacuation drills in that town periodically.  In case of tsunami, you cannot evacuate by car.  It's not possible.  You have to go up this trail to the top of the mountain in the Miami Forest.  It's no more than a 3 mile walk from anywhere in town but it does have a 1,000 foot elevation gain.  If an evacuation happened in winter, I imagine everyone would be told to keep walking until you're in the snow.
 
2022-06-07 9:03:29 PM  

Pinnacle Point: Seattle is pretty safe from a tsunami as it essentially lies in a mountain valley between Olympic and Cascade ranges.  A tsunami would have to make a right turn in Puget Sound and travel really long ways afterwards. It's not going to occur. Other costal towns are of course more problematic. The Cascadia fault runs from deep in the ocean to under the Cascadia range. Unlike the vertical San Andreas fault, the Cascadia fault line runs diagonally across much of  the PNW.
[kids-fun-science.com image 550x246]Also, Tacoma Washington used to be part of Puget Sound itself until the formally 16,000 ft high Mt Rainier filled in Tacoma during the Osceola Mudflow eruption (sorry Enunclaw).
. [historylink.org image 260x299]


Fark user imageView Full Size


Ya, but if the tsunami's big enough, it'll drive Vancouver Island right through and into Mount St. Helens.  And that doesn't sound good...
 
2022-06-07 9:11:43 PM  
Think of all the cool shoes with feet in them that will be available.
 
2022-06-07 9:19:44 PM  
The New Yorker article, linked here by others really should have had this as its sub-hed:

Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA's Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, "Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast."

The tsunami won't hit Seattle directly but the 7-9 minute earthquake will put all of the glass from Seattle skyscrapers onto the streets.

The last major earthquake exercise showed that local authorities hadn't even prioritized WHICH ROADS TO CLEAR FIRST.

In addition, homes will have furniture, water heaters, and gas lines disrupted or down.

There is some good news here: FEMA and the Army Corps of Engineers have done a ton of disaster planning and they'll be able to do two things quickly:
1.  identify (via satellite) the infrastructure damage
2.  re-establish cell communications among key officials.  There's a Wireless Priority Service that determines who has priority in emergencies where the cells are overloaded.
 
2022-06-07 9:19:51 PM  
Never liked the Mariners anyway.
 
2022-06-07 9:42:13 PM  
On one end of the Fark spectrum we have the folks denying impact, and on the other, we have the folks declaring everyone and everything is already dead, we just don't know it yet, and we should all visit the area with somber eyes and long sighs because death surrounds us all...
 
2022-06-07 10:04:44 PM  
Up here in Bellingham we got a nice Bay-of-Fundy-like topography, shallow bay and only one real "bend" from the Strait of Juan de Fuca, so an easy shot for waves and a big pile up at the end.
You might say that downtown is "Strait of Juan de Fuc*ed" in the event of the big one.
Also we get a lahar from Mt Baker if/when it blows. So that's nice.

https://www.king5.com/video/news/local/disaster/video-tsunami-wave-simulation-for-bellingham-washington/281-694b0a3a-9439-4a02-a4b9-b6b8abbfe927

/City of Subdued Excitement
 
2022-06-07 10:11:39 PM  
This development was of interest to me.  At the bottom end of Cascadia, my office is in the inundation zone but my home is outside it by a half mile, if the surge is greater, it means my house is gone and likely myself it occurs at night.  If the earthquake causes a collapse of my home or office, I am probably dead as they say there is only 15 minutes to get to higher ground.  If the revised surge is higher, I don't know if the evacuation zone near the office is still safe and if it isn't, I don't know if the closest high ground is realistically accessable in the aftermath of the large quake and potential injuries.

I always wondered if the inundation maps after the 2011 tsunami were accurate given how large a surge happened. I guess my suspicions were correct, although it is just one study.  Hopefully they will revise thing to tell me how screwed my area is.
 
2022-06-07 10:17:27 PM  
Yes!  I will have a waterfront condo in Lynnwood.

/Not serious.
//Would rather have that not take place.
 
2022-06-07 10:20:41 PM  

nyan9mm: CordycepsInYourBrain: 4seasons85!: People who know more about this than I do, what could be the impact in the form of an earthquake on Seattle if the Cascadia fault line erupts? Maybe they don't get the tidal wave but I'm assuming the earthquake would be insane.

I plug this guy often enough that people might suspect he's my uncle or something but he's just a good explainer. Will everything west of I-90 really be toast? They can extrapolate numbers really well by using data from the Fukushima quake. Japan had seismometers and GPS receivers that measure ground deformation all over the place. As I recall, Seattle is far enough away that it shouldn't get too much damage but it's been a while since I watched the video. There is some crazy stuff about how much Ocean Shores will drop. I should rewatch.

Thanks for this, I'll watch it in a little bit. I live in the middle of grays harbor, 10 minutes away from Aberdeen, so I'm guessing I'm screwed.


Oh crap, I posted a link to the wrong video. This one is much better.
 
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