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(Some Guy)   The housing market looks over at all that pristine bubble wrap and starts to twitch   (nar.realtor) divider line
    More: Obvious, Real estate, home sales, Single-family detached home, House types, Real estate pricing, Median, Semi-detached, single-family homes  
•       •       •

1005 clicks; posted to Business » on 20 May 2022 at 5:53 AM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



41 Comments     (+0 »)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2022-05-20 3:34:03 AM  
It's as if finance payments remain constant as interest rates increase, forcing prices down.
 
2022-05-20 6:07:26 AM  
My single income as a nurse, I'll never be able to afford a home.

I can only hope some dumb asshole with a house will want to marry me so that can happen.
 
2022-05-20 6:20:11 AM  
Everyone says we aren't on a bubble like in 2008 because that was caused by subprime mortgages and this market is primarily caused by lack of inventory.  I don't know what is true other than the housing market generally just goes up, and that is concerning

fred.stlouisfed.orgView Full Size


So save for some massive dip, like in 2009, we can only hope for prices to level out a bit, but wages will not increase to a level where home ownership is a reality for most young people. Everything is bleak at this point.
 
2022-05-20 6:46:25 AM  

cheap_thoughts: My single income as a nurse, I'll never be able to afford a home.

I can only hope some dumb asshole with a house will want to marry me so that can happen.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-05-20 6:50:04 AM  

cheap_thoughts: My single income as a nurse, I'll never be able to afford a home.

I can only hope some dumb asshole with a house will want to marry me so that can happen.


Ten years from now it will be easy, the baby boomers will mostly have shuffled off to retirement homes or just shuffled off.  We have many more homes than we're going to need once we get over the hump.
 
2022-05-20 6:52:19 AM  

cheap_thoughts: My single income as a nurse, I'll never be able to afford a home.

I can only hope some dumb asshole with a house will want to marry me so that can happen.


You're in luck. The supply of houses may be limited, but some dumb assholes are in a nearly unlimited supply.
 
2022-05-20 7:04:26 AM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: cheap_thoughts: My single income as a nurse, I'll never be able to afford a home.

I can only hope some dumb asshole with a house will want to marry me so that can happen.

Ten years from now it will be easy, the baby boomers will mostly have shuffled off to retirement homes or just shuffled off.  We have many more homes than we're going to need once we get over the hump.


Those houses will be snatched up by a company which will then rent it out for more than you'll pay in a mortgage.

That's part of what is driving up prices now. They're buying houses at already inflated prices because they can squeeze rent out of people.
 
2022-05-20 7:19:07 AM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: cheap_thoughts: My single income as a nurse, I'll never be able to afford a home.

I can only hope some dumb asshole with a house will want to marry me so that can happen.

Ten years from now it will be easy, the baby boomers will mostly have shuffled off to retirement homes or just shuffled off.  We have many more homes than we're going to need once we get over the hump.


There are more millennials than baby boomers.

Demand outstripping supply will be an issue until the end of the century. Our great-grandchildren though, they're gonna have it good.
 
2022-05-20 7:21:13 AM  
I think there's about to be a shiat ton of houses on the market as mortgages and rent (that pays the land lords mortgages) Come due and they can't be paid.
 
2022-05-20 7:26:11 AM  

dark brew: Everyone says we aren't on a bubble like in 2008 because that was caused by subprime mortgages and this market is primarily caused by lack of inventory.  I don't know what is true other than the housing market generally just goes up, and that is concerning

[fred.stlouisfed.org image 850x444]

So save for some massive dip, like in 2009, we can only hope for prices to level out a bit, but wages will not increase to a level where home ownership is a reality for most young people. Everything is bleak at this point.


Home ownership hasn't changed much since at least 1960.  It's around 65%.  There is no trend, it's steady state.
People in their 20s generally have not been able to buy their own home since the 1960s without help from their parents. Millenials have been buying new and boomer family homes, plus trading homes as their careers grow for years now.  It's predictable and expected.  As with other generations, the bottom 35% won't ever own a home.
I am curious why so many here on Fark think home ownership is some sort of cash machine?  It's not, and most people I know are too lazy or unskilled to maintain the home themselves and take out loan after loan to hire contractors.  When they finally sell they might get $50,000 tops after sinking more than $1 million into the property since they never owned the home outright and have multiple liens on the property.
Want to own a home?  Under 30?  Find a financial advisor or someone you trust to put you on that path.  It starts by becoming a highly skilled, in-demand worker in your 20s or relocation to a lower cost area where you could buy with your current skill set or some small improvement in skills.  If you are over 40 then it's probably not worth it to buy as your ability to earn good money pretty much ends at age 55-65, and you lost the benefit of inflation and wage growth in your 30s and 40s to reduce the principal enough for the late stage career change.
I think a shift to condos and co-ops in dense housing near mass transit, employment, and shopping/entertainment would be a great thing.  We as a country do not want.
Skills skills skills people.
 
2022-05-20 7:33:08 AM  

wildcardjack: It's as if finance payments remain constant as interest rates increase, forcing prices down.


From where did this part come?  Certainly not the article or reality.

The number of sales of existing homes are down, not the prices on them.

Price increases are slowing, but that also is not the same thing.  Prices continue to rise.

Among other factors, buyer activity has decreased due to higher prices and higher mortgage rates.

(Also, with mortgage rates increasing, folks that currently own homes are less likely to sell their house with a low interest rate and move to another house with a new mortgage and a higher interest rate.)

There is still an overall lack of inventory

/I wish prices would go down, at least in certain areas
 
2022-05-20 7:39:00 AM  
10+% unemployment will most likely address housing concerns. Can't pay your sweet 2% mortgage if you have no job.

The layoffs are beginning. They will only increase.
 
2022-05-20 7:50:11 AM  
Yeah, well, my Zestimatetm is up up up!
 
2022-05-20 7:59:09 AM  

Northern: dark brew: Everyone says we aren't on a bubble like in 2008 because that was caused by subprime mortgages and this market is primarily caused by lack of inventory.  I don't know what is true other than the housing market generally just goes up, and that is concerning

[fred.stlouisfed.org image 850x444]

So save for some massive dip, like in 2009, we can only hope for prices to level out a bit, but wages will not increase to a level where home ownership is a reality for most young people. Everything is bleak at this point.

Home ownership hasn't changed much since at least 1960.  It's around 65%.  There is no trend, it's steady state.
People in their 20s generally have not been able to buy their own home since the 1960s without help from their parents. Millenials have been buying new and boomer family homes, plus trading homes as their careers grow for years now.  It's predictable and expected.  As with other generations, the bottom 35% won't ever own a home.
I am curious why so many here on Fark think home ownership is some sort of cash machine?  It's not, and most people I know are too lazy or unskilled to maintain the home themselves and take out loan after loan to hire contractors.  When they finally sell they might get $50,000 tops after sinking more than $1 million into the property since they never owned the home outright and have multiple liens on the property.
Want to own a home?  Under 30?  Find a financial advisor or someone you trust to put you on that path.  It starts by becoming a highly skilled, in-demand worker in your 20s or relocation to a lower cost area where you could buy with your current skill set or some small improvement in skills.  If you are over 40 then it's probably not worth it to buy as your ability to earn good money pretty much ends at age 55-65, and you lost the benefit of inflation and wage growth in your 30s and 40s to reduce the principal enough for the late stage career change.
I think a shift to condos and co-ops in dense housing near mass transit, employment, and shopping/entertainment would be a great thing.  We as a country do not want.
Skills skills skills people.


What would you like me to do?  Replace my own roof?  Fix my own electrical and plumbing?  Replace my own septic tank?  Add a second floor to my home? Yeah sure, I can wire in a new light switch, replace sensors on my garage door, and unplug a drain.  But a burst pipe or a major electrical/plumbing/structural problem needs to be handled by professionals or your house will be completely worthless.  There's a reason professionals exist.  They know what they're doing.
 
2022-05-20 8:04:30 AM  

Northern: dark brew: Everyone says we aren't on a bubble like in 2008 because that was caused by subprime mortgages and this market is primarily caused by lack of inventory.  I don't know what is true other than the housing market generally just goes up, and that is concerning

[fred.stlouisfed.org image 850x444]

So save for some massive dip, like in 2009, we can only hope for prices to level out a bit, but wages will not increase to a level where home ownership is a reality for most young people. Everything is bleak at this point.

Home ownership hasn't changed much since at least 1960.  It's around 65%.  There is no trend, it's steady state.
People in their 20s generally have not been able to buy their own home since the 1960s without help from their parents. Millenials have been buying new and boomer family homes, plus trading homes as their careers grow for years now.  It's predictable and expected.  As with other generations, the bottom 35% won't ever own a home.
I am curious why so many here on Fark think home ownership is some sort of cash machine?  It's not, and most people I know are too lazy or unskilled to maintain the home themselves and take out loan after loan to hire contractors.  When they finally sell they might get $50,000 tops after sinking more than $1 million into the property since they never owned the home outright and have multiple liens on the property.
Want to own a home?  Under 30?  Find a financial advisor or someone you trust to put you on that path.  It starts by becoming a highly skilled, in-demand worker in your 20s or relocation to a lower cost area where you could buy with your current skill set or some small improvement in skills.  If you are over 40 then it's probably not worth it to buy as your ability to earn good money pretty much ends at age 55-65, and you lost the benefit of inflation and wage growth in your 30s and 40s to reduce the principal enough for the late stage career change.
I think a shift to condos and co-ops in dense housing near mass transit, employment, and shopping/entertainment would be a great thing.  We as a country do not want.
Skills skills skills people.


I'm a mechanical engineer. I just paid off my college loans because I was in "the zone" where PSLF had a 99.5% rejection rate.

Now there's talk of forgiving the loans I just paid off, housing prices are at an all-time median high, starter homes are being hoarded, and interest rates are about to clear 6%.

The hell am I supposed to do!? Because skillz to pay da' billz ain't cutting it anymore.
 
2022-05-20 8:08:14 AM  

cheap_thoughts: My single income as a nurse, I'll never be able to afford a home.

I can only hope some dumb asshole with a house will want to marry me so that can happen.


I'm a dumb asshole that owns my own house. But sex isn't worth having to live with another person, so you're out of luck.
 
2022-05-20 8:13:18 AM  

Northern: dark brew: Everyone says we aren't on a bubble like in 2008 because that was caused by subprime mortgages and this market is primarily caused by lack of inventory.  I don't know what is true other than the housing market generally just goes up, and that is concerning

[fred.stlouisfed.org image 850x444]

So save for some massive dip, like in 2009, we can only hope for prices to level out a bit, but wages will not increase to a level where home ownership is a reality for most young people. Everything is bleak at this point.

Home ownership hasn't changed much since at least 1960.  It's around 65%.  There is no trend, it's steady state.
People in their 20s generally have not been able to buy their own home since the 1960s without help from their parents. Millenials have been buying new and boomer family homes, plus trading homes as their careers grow for years now.  It's predictable and expected.  As with other generations, the bottom 35% won't ever own a home.
I am curious why so many here on Fark think home ownership is some sort of cash machine?  It's not, and most people I know are too lazy or unskilled to maintain the home themselves and take out loan after loan to hire contractors.  When they finally sell they might get $50,000 tops after sinking more than $1 million into the property since they never owned the home outright and have multiple liens on the property.
Want to own a home?  Under 30?  Find a financial advisor or someone you trust to put you on that path.  It starts by becoming a highly skilled, in-demand worker in your 20s or relocation to a lower cost area where you could buy with your current skill set or some small improvement in skills.  If you are over 40 then it's probably not worth it to buy as your ability to earn good money pretty much ends at age 55-65, and you lost the benefit of inflation and wage growth in your 30s and 40s to reduce the principal enough for the late stage career change.
I think a shift to condos and co-ops in dense housing near mass transit, employment, and shopping/entertainment would be a great thing.  We as a country do not want.
Skills skills skills people.


You're a looney. I bought my home for 160k, it's now appraised at 250k, and I could probably sell it for twice that in this market. I've barely put in any expense for maintenance, mainly repairs to the AC occasionally.
 
2022-05-20 8:16:45 AM  

Northern: I am curious why so many here on Fark think home ownership is some sort of cash machine?  It's not, and most people I know are too lazy or unskilled to maintain the home themselves and take out loan after loan to hire contractors.  When they finally sell they might get $50,000 tops after sinking more than $1 million into the property since they never owned the home outright and have multiple liens on the property.


Sorry to pile on, but you have just written that "most people you know take out multiple loans to hire contractors in amounts that exceed one million dollars."

No offense, but that is so unlikely that it defies possibility.  Why on earth would anyone state this as a fact?

(To answer your question in the first sentence, it is because it is true that the number one way to build wealth in America is through home ownership.  Even if your statement were somehow true, how is a renter getting "that meager" $50,000 that "most people you know" end up with?  I'm sure lots of folks on Fark would love to get dropped fifty grand.)

Every other paragraph of your post is great, by the way.  But the claim that most folks spend seven figures on home improvement and repairs via loans which they repay monthly in addition to their mortgage is just silly.

NewportBarGuy: Can't pay your sweet 2% mortgage if you have no job.


Well, if you can't afford a 2% mortgage, it's highly likely you also can't afford rent.  At least if you are not underwater on your house, at least you get something out of the sale, which might keep you from being homeless.  If you are a renter that can't afford that monthly amount, you're screwed.
 
2022-05-20 8:19:42 AM  

dark brew: Everyone says we aren't on a bubble like in 2008 because that was caused by subprime mortgages and this market is primarily caused by lack of inventory.  I don't know what is true other than the housing market generally just goes up, and that is concerning

[fred.stlouisfed.org image 850x444]

So save for some massive dip, like in 2009, we can only hope for prices to level out a bit, but wages will not increase to a level where home ownership is a reality for most young people. Everything is bleak at this point.


That spike at the end doesn't look so bubbly with a log chart that shows proportional/percentage change in home price.   It could just as easily go sideways or continue up.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-05-20 8:27:16 AM  

NewportBarGuy: 10+% unemployment will most likely address housing concerns. Can't pay your sweet 2% mortgage if you have no job.

The layoffs are beginning. They will only increase.


I haven't seen anything that would indicate mass layoffs. Can you show me where you saw that?
 
2022-05-20 8:30:14 AM  

Bovine Diarrhea Virus: What would you like me to do?  Replace my own roof?  Fix my own electrical and plumbing?  Replace my own septic tank?  Add a second floor to my home? Yeah sure, I can wire in a new light switch, replace sensors on my garage door, and unplug a drain.  But a burst pipe or a major electrical/plumbing/structural problem needs to be handled by professionals or your house will be completely worthless.  There's a reason professionals exist.  They know what they're doing.


I've found most "professionals" don't know what they're doing or cut corners to make more money on a job. I'm replacing my own roof (all the way down to the rafters and reframing part of it) and I'll I'm finding is the "professionals" who had done it in the past just winged it and caused leaks everywhere (and I see the same problems on almost every house on the block). We had Roto-Rooter come out to snake our sewer line - they couldn't get it unclogged and blamed the city. I went and bought a drain snake and did it myself - totally cleaned out in 30 minutes. Fixed my own AC unit for $100 when we were quoted $1000. Fixed the furnace at the same price point. Our buddy's house was wired by a professional - burnt down due to it (wrong fuse sizes). Our in-laws sewer line would constantly back up because the "professionals" didn't attach it to the city sewer line properly. Early on I called "professionals" out but I stopped after I spoke to a few of them and the cool ones said "this is so easy to do and the company I work for is ripping you off" and showed me how to do it myself. The only jobs I won't do now are honestly the ones I just don't want to do but I watch whoever we hire like a hawk to make sure they do it right.
 
2022-05-20 8:43:38 AM  

ajgeek: Northern: dark brew: Everyone says we aren't on a bubble like in 2008 because that was caused by subprime mortgages and this market is primarily caused by lack of inventory.  I don't know what is true other than the housing market generally just goes up, and that is concerning

[fred.stlouisfed.org image 850x444]

So save for some massive dip, like in 2009, we can only hope for prices to level out a bit, but wages will not increase to a level where home ownership is a reality for most young people. Everything is bleak at this point.

Home ownership hasn't changed much since at least 1960.  It's around 65%.  There is no trend, it's steady state.
People in their 20s generally have not been able to buy their own home since the 1960s without help from their parents. Millenials have been buying new and boomer family homes, plus trading homes as their careers grow for years now.  It's predictable and expected.  As with other generations, the bottom 35% won't ever own a home.
I am curious why so many here on Fark think home ownership is some sort of cash machine?  It's not, and most people I know are too lazy or unskilled to maintain the home themselves and take out loan after loan to hire contractors.  When they finally sell they might get $50,000 tops after sinking more than $1 million into the property since they never owned the home outright and have multiple liens on the property.
Want to own a home?  Under 30?  Find a financial advisor or someone you trust to put you on that path.  It starts by becoming a highly skilled, in-demand worker in your 20s or relocation to a lower cost area where you could buy with your current skill set or some small improvement in skills.  If you are over 40 then it's probably not worth it to buy as your ability to earn good money pretty much ends at age 55-65, and you lost the benefit of inflation and wage growth in your 30s and 40s to reduce the principal enough for the late stage career change.
I think a shift to condos and co-ops in dense housing near mass transit, employment, and shopping/entertainment would be a great thing.  We as a country do not want.
Skills skills skills people.

I'm a mechanical engineer. I just paid off my college loans because I was in "the zone" where PSLF had a 99.5% rejection rate.

Now there's talk of forgiving the loans I just paid off, housing prices are at an all-time median high, starter homes are being hoarded, and interest rates are about to clear 6%.

The hell am I supposed to do!? Because skillz to pay da' billz ain't cutting it anymore.


Im lookin' for a sugar daddy, myself.....
 
2022-05-20 8:53:28 AM  

Mr. Tweedy: We had Roto-Rooter come out to snake our sewer line - they couldn't get it unclogged and blamed the city. I went and bought a drain snake and did it myself - totally cleaned out in 30 minutes.


Roto-Rooter is f*cking worthless.
 
2022-05-20 9:00:00 AM  

Dr.Fey: Every other paragraph of your post is great, by the way. But the claim that most folks spend seven figures on home improvement and repairs via loans which they repay monthly in addition to their mortgage is just silly.


The most I've ever put into a house is around $85,000 and that was an extreme fixer. The tarps over the holes in the roof had holes in them, only one of the four bedrooms didn't have ceiling leaks and one entire wall downstairs had to be replaced.  Took a decade, but we cleared over $200k on the sale. We had not intended to move, but my wife got a new job in another city and the three hours on the road every day was too much.

I also know people who dumped $70k into an "upgraded" kitchen which added zero to the value of the house.
 
2022-05-20 9:06:46 AM  
raerae1980:

Im lookin' for a sugar daddy, myself.....


I think that Elon is hiring.
 
2022-05-20 9:08:16 AM  

KarmicDisaster: raerae1980:

Im lookin' for a sugar daddy, myself.....


I think that Elon is hiring.


I said a sugar-daddy, not an evil asshole.
 
2022-05-20 9:58:45 AM  

Likwit: NewportBarGuy: 10+% unemployment will most likely address housing concerns. Can't pay your sweet 2% mortgage if you have no job.

The layoffs are beginning. They will only increase.

I haven't seen anything that would indicate mass layoffs. Can you show me where you saw that?


Just type "layoffs" in the google news tab... It's just getting started as the free money machine dries up.

It will accelerate and continue IF interest rates and inflation keep marching higher. That much is inevitable. The only way to stop inflation is to kill the economy and killing the economy means killing jobs.

It's what will ensure a Republican President in 2024, most likely Mitten Romney who will say that only he, a brave businessman who stood up to Trump, can rescue us from 20% interest rates and an economy in tatters.

That's all an if. IF things keep going on the current path.

I'm hopeful something other outcome happens. But... it does not look good.
 
2022-05-20 10:14:17 AM  

Dr.Fey: wildcardjack: It's as if finance payments remain constant as interest rates increase, forcing prices down.

From where did this part come?  Certainly not the article or reality.


It's the fundamental basis of the theory that Federal Reserve interest rates can control inflation. It is realistic. As used car interest rates went up, available payment remaind level and prices dropped. Tuition has never been subject to fair market interest rates, so it keeps going up. Hedge funds borrowing to invest on margins had the overnight rate shift, stocks plunge as the borrowers had to sell because they couldn't hold at the inflated prices.
 
2022-05-20 10:16:06 AM  

NewportBarGuy: Likwit: NewportBarGuy: 10+% unemployment will most likely address housing concerns. Can't pay your sweet 2% mortgage if you have no job.

The layoffs are beginning. They will only increase.

I haven't seen anything that would indicate mass layoffs. Can you show me where you saw that?

Just type "layoffs" in the google news tab... It's just getting started as the free money machine dries up.

It will accelerate and continue IF interest rates and inflation keep marching higher. That much is inevitable. The only way to stop inflation is to kill the economy and killing the economy means killing jobs.

It's what will ensure a Republican President in 2024, most likely Mitten Romney who will say that only he, a brave businessman who stood up to Trump, can rescue us from 20% interest rates and an economy in tatters.

That's all an if. IF things keep going on the current path.

I'm hopeful something other outcome happens. But... it does not look good.


So your source is "trust me, bro"

Cool
 
2022-05-20 10:56:16 AM  

Likwit: NewportBarGuy: Likwit: NewportBarGuy: 10+% unemployment will most likely address housing concerns. Can't pay your sweet 2% mortgage if you have no job.

The layoffs are beginning. They will only increase.

I haven't seen anything that would indicate mass layoffs. Can you show me where you saw that?

Just type "layoffs" in the google news tab... It's just getting started as the free money machine dries up.

It will accelerate and continue IF interest rates and inflation keep marching higher. That much is inevitable. The only way to stop inflation is to kill the economy and killing the economy means killing jobs.

It's what will ensure a Republican President in 2024, most likely Mitten Romney who will say that only he, a brave businessman who stood up to Trump, can rescue us from 20% interest rates and an economy in tatters.

That's all an if. IF things keep going on the current path.

I'm hopeful something other outcome happens. But... it does not look good.

So your source is "trust me, bro"

Cool


Fwiw, I also heard layoff are starting.
 
2022-05-20 11:09:31 AM  

dark brew: Everyone says we aren't on a bubble like in 2008 because that was caused by subprime mortgages and this market is primarily caused by lack of inventory.  I don't know what is true other than the housing market generally just goes up, and that is concerning

[fred.stlouisfed.org image 850x444]

So save for some massive dip, like in 2009, we can only hope for prices to level out a bit, but wages will not increase to a level where home ownership is a reality for most young people. Everything is bleak at this point.


Home ownership (the way we think of it) has never been a reality for most young people. I know we've built up this mythology that in the olden boomer days, everyone was going out and buying a home the minute they turned 18 with money they saved from their paper route, but that's all nostalgia-tinted bullshiat. The reality is that home ownership rates haven't moved meaningfully since basically the great depression. Even asking the under-35 crowd, home ownership rates peaked at about 42% in the 70s and are only down to... about 35% at their lowest and are at just under 40% today. And the biggest cause of the dip isn't even prices -- it's the fact that some young people needed to delay home ownership a little because of student loans that then allow them to buy a nicer home later, skipping the "starter home" entirely.

So young people can afford homes, and they can afford them at just about the same rate as they could during the mythical period when homes were free. Overall, roughly 65% of people own homes. It's only bleak if you refuse to look at the numbers and just dive unthinkingly into the doomscrolling. And if you buy into boomer propaganda that the 60s/70s/80s were a perfect time when everything was perfect and every job paid a living wage and everything was basically free and every boomer got a house with their highschool diploma.
 
2022-05-20 12:00:48 PM  

cheap_thoughts: My single income as a nurse, I'll never be able to afford a home.

I can only hope some dumb asshole with a house will want to marry me so that can happen.


i.pinimg.comView Full Size
 
2022-05-20 12:04:33 PM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: We have many more homes than we're going to need once we get over the hump.


Just make sure you save the 1-3% deductible for the hurricane insurance every summer in Florida if you buy one.
 
2022-05-20 12:12:11 PM  

NewportBarGuy: 10+% unemployment will most likely address housing concerns. Can't pay your sweet 2% mortgage if you have no job.

The layoffs are beginning. They will only increase.


If they have 2% to 2.75% mortgage rate there is a good chance their house will not be going under water. It's the poor people paying over 3% that just might be farked because that's about when prices went to the moon.
 
2022-05-20 12:52:14 PM  

Intrepid00: NewportBarGuy: 10+% unemployment will most likely address housing concerns. Can't pay your sweet 2% mortgage if you have no job.

The layoffs are beginning. They will only increase.

If they have 2% to 2.75% mortgage rate there is a good chance their house will not be going under water. It's the poor people paying over 3% that just might be farked because that's about when prices went to the moon.


Rents have been going up so it's not like they would save any money there.
 
2022-05-20 1:42:48 PM  
Smart people are born into wealthy families.  Being born into anything less just shows you don't deserve anything
 
2022-05-20 1:46:17 PM  

Likwit: NewportBarGuy: Likwit: NewportBarGuy: 10+% unemployment will most likely address housing concerns. Can't pay your sweet 2% mortgage if you have no job.

The layoffs are beginning. They will only increase.

I haven't seen anything that would indicate mass layoffs. Can you show me where you saw that?

Just type "layoffs" in the google news tab... It's just getting started as the free money machine dries up.

It will accelerate and continue IF interest rates and inflation keep marching higher. That much is inevitable. The only way to stop inflation is to kill the economy and killing the economy means killing jobs.

It's what will ensure a Republican President in 2024, most likely Mitten Romney who will say that only he, a brave businessman who stood up to Trump, can rescue us from 20% interest rates and an economy in tatters.

That's all an if. IF things keep going on the current path.

I'm hopeful something other outcome happens. But... it does not look good.

So your source is "trust me, bro"

Cool


Hey man... Believe whatever you want.

Have a good one.
 
2022-05-20 2:00:12 PM  

Lusiphur: dark brew: Everyone says we aren't on a bubble like in 2008 because that was caused by subprime mortgages and this market is primarily caused by lack of inventory.  I don't know what is true other than the housing market generally just goes up, and that is concerning

[fred.stlouisfed.org image 850x444]

So save for some massive dip, like in 2009, we can only hope for prices to level out a bit, but wages will not increase to a level where home ownership is a reality for most young people. Everything is bleak at this point.

Home ownership (the way we think of it) has never been a reality for most young people. I know we've built up this mythology that in the olden boomer days, everyone was going out and buying a home the minute they turned 18 with money they saved from their paper route, but that's all nostalgia-tinted bullshiat. The reality is that home ownership rates haven't moved meaningfully since basically the great depression. Even asking the under-35 crowd, home ownership rates peaked at about 42% in the 70s and are only down to... about 35% at their lowest and are at just under 40% today. And the biggest cause of the dip isn't even prices -- it's the fact that some young people needed to delay home ownership a little because of student loans that then allow them to buy a nicer home later, skipping the "starter home" entirely.

So young people can afford homes, and they can afford them at just about the same rate as they could during the mythical period when homes were free. Overall, roughly 65% of people own homes. It's only bleak if you refuse to look at the numbers and just dive unthinkingly into the doomscrolling. And if you buy into boomer propaganda that the 60s/70s/80s were a perfect time when everything was perfect and every job paid a living wage and everything was basically free and every boomer got a house with their highschool diploma.


People bought houses in their 20s because:
A) Everyone got married basically as soon as they hit their 20s.  Nowadays people tend to wait until they're 30 to do that (Everyone I personally know that got married in their 20s have all since divorced.  Anyone who does it, it doesn't seem to last anyway).  So therefore, two incomes.
B) Everyone just decided going into massive debt was a perfectly fine.  Nowadays people DON'T think going into immediate debt before you get your career going is a good idea.

It's just different mindsets.

/Or If you look at the 70s, well, there was sky-high interest rates where you could grow your money in a savings account or COD.  Now to get anywhere close to that you have to invest in the stock market which is inherently risky.  Hard to grow your money nowadays unless you get paid well.  Or inherit it.
 
2022-05-20 6:07:42 PM  

Bovine Diarrhea Virus: Northern: dark brew: Everyone says we aren't on a bubble like in 2008 because that was caused by subprime mortgages and this market is primarily caused by lack of inventory.  I don't know what is true other than the housing market generally just goes up, and that is concerning

[fred.stlouisfed.org image 850x444]

So save for some massive dip, like in 2009, we can only hope for prices to level out a bit, but wages will not increase to a level where home ownership is a reality for most young people. Everything is bleak at this point.

Home ownership hasn't changed much since at least 1960.  It's around 65%.  There is no trend, it's steady state.
People in their 20s generally have not been able to buy their own home since the 1960s without help from their parents. Millenials have been buying new and boomer family homes, plus trading homes as their careers grow for years now.  It's predictable and expected.  As with other generations, the bottom 35% won't ever own a home.
I am curious why so many here on Fark think home ownership is some sort of cash machine?  It's not, and most people I know are too lazy or unskilled to maintain the home themselves and take out loan after loan to hire contractors.  When they finally sell they might get $50,000 tops after sinking more than $1 million into the property since they never owned the home outright and have multiple liens on the property.
Want to own a home?  Under 30?  Find a financial advisor or someone you trust to put you on that path.  It starts by becoming a highly skilled, in-demand worker in your 20s or relocation to a lower cost area where you could buy with your current skill set or some small improvement in skills.  If you are over 40 then it's probably not worth it to buy as your ability to earn good money pretty much ends at age 55-65, and you lost the benefit of inflation and wage growth in your 30s and 40s to reduce the principal enough for the late stage career change.
I think a shift to condos and co-ops in d ...


You can do a lot of that stuff yourself, roofing and plumbing are not rocket science.  The issue with roofing is that 70% of the cost is materials, so its a marginal benefit.  Plumbing?  Its 90% labor costs, and its not difficult to do.
 
2022-05-20 8:26:27 PM  
I bought in spring 18 and redfin tells me it's worth 20% more now, something is hinky.
 
2022-05-20 11:25:02 PM  

morg: I bought in spring 18 and redfin tells me it's worth 20% more now, something is hink


Well, if this table is accurate:
Fark user imageView Full Size


that's not so hink.

It appears that there are (I'm just eyeballing) many period in which a 20% increase in four years is not unusual.  Looks often to be doubling in 10-15 years.

I also note that every time there has been a crash, it has eventually exceeded that prior peak in 6-7 at most, so it's not a concern unless you are planning on selling soon.

Of course, one must note that this is this is nationwide.  If you bought a home in the place where the mill or plant closed, your results will vary greatly.  If you bought in a market that is or became extremely hot, your results can be much more positive.  Manhattan or San Francisco is different than Eastern Pennsylvania or Midtown Detroit.
 
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