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(Some Guy)   We're gonna have a housing party like it's 2008   (citylimits.org) divider line
    More: Interesting, New York City, Mortgage, Foreclosure, New York households, Subprime mortgage crisis, New York homeowners, property taxes, United States housing bubble  
•       •       •

1446 clicks; posted to Business » on 26 Jan 2022 at 7:55 AM (16 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



33 Comments     (+0 »)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2022-01-26 8:01:46 AM  
I wonder what the total owed is.
 
2022-01-26 8:17:34 AM  
Change the address number out front, that will buy you some time.
 
2022-01-26 8:19:48 AM  
For that to happen those houses would have to be bundled into junk bonds that are rated AAA.
 
2022-01-26 8:23:35 AM  
citylimits.org

CityLimits.Org:  starring Rae Dawn Chong, Kim Cattrall, James Earl Jones, and featuring Robbie Benson.
 
2022-01-26 8:42:40 AM  
I feel like the banks can just eat these mortgages.
 
2022-01-26 8:59:01 AM  

Incog_Neeto: I feel like the banks can just eat these mortgages.


Right now the homes are likely worth more than the lien on the property, and there are many billions of dollars chasing US real estate.  So it won't be like 2008 at all.
The big risk right now is a global conflict.  If Russia takes Ukraine, China may invade Taiwan and India the Kashmir.  This greatly increases the probability of a nuclear exchange.
There is also a remote chance Best Korea will fark around as well, especially if Kim's sister wants to prove her leadership by shelling a SK town or sink one of their navy ships, or a Japanese ship.
Iran may also use this to launch a new attack against Saudi oil fields.
A weak USA means dictators across the globe get a free pass at starting conflict.
 
2022-01-26 9:32:34 AM  
You lost.
Get over it.
The country is about 1000% stronger than it was with tangerine boy in the WH, so shut your fat, weak ass, cuck.
 
2022-01-26 9:34:20 AM  

Northern: Incog_Neeto: I feel like the banks can just eat these mortgages.

Right now the homes are likely worth more than the lien on the property, and there are many billions of dollars chasing US real estate.  So it won't be like 2008 at all.
The big risk right now is a global conflict.  If Russia takes Ukraine, China may invade Taiwan and India the Kashmir.  This greatly increases the probability of a nuclear exchange.
There is also a remote chance Best Korea will fark around as well, especially if Kim's sister wants to prove her leadership by shelling a SK town or sink one of their navy ships, or a Japanese ship.
Iran may also use this to launch a new attack against Saudi oil fields.
A weak USA means dictators across the globe get a free pass at starting conflict.


And since they've had the 4 previous years to build up momentum, sometimes actively assisted by said weak USA, you might be right.
 
2022-01-26 9:46:31 AM  
So they're expecting tens of thousands of foreclosure listings in the coming months... that sounds about normal for nearly 2 years worth of foreclosures in a state the size of New York.  It actually sounds pretty low unless it's upper tens of thousands.

Lenders are probably eager to foreclose right now for two reasons.  There's a housing shortage that's been driving up prices for a few years now so they'll get their money, and the Fed is going to have to raise interest rates in the near future, which will cause mortgage interest rates to go up too... making them want to get out of their insanely low interest loans.

OTOH, I don't get why anybody would be getting foreclosed on right now.  Home values have increased so much over the last few years that even if you bought it in 2019, if you go to sell it now it'll probably not only cover the loan and transaction expenses, but also leave you with a nice nest egg.  If it goes through foreclosure, the bank only cares about getting their money back and it'll probably be listed for exactly that amount.
 
2022-01-26 9:46:35 AM  

Northern: Incog_Neeto: I feel like the banks can just eat these mortgages.

Right now the homes are likely worth more than the lien on the property, and there are many billions of dollars chasing US real estate.  So it won't be like 2008 at all.


Isn't that exactly like 2008? Well, right up until the market crashed...
 
2022-01-26 9:49:52 AM  

Target Builder: Northern: Incog_Neeto: I feel like the banks can just eat these mortgages.

Right now the homes are likely worth more than the lien on the property, and there are many billions of dollars chasing US real estate.  So it won't be like 2008 at all.

Isn't that exactly like 2008? Well, right up until the market crashed...


No, you don't  have short sales and the bank can profit from foreclosure if the home value is more than what the mortgage holder owes.
 
2022-01-26 9:59:13 AM  

Northern: Incog_Neeto: I feel like the banks can just eat these mortgages.

Right now the homes are likely worth more than the lien on the property, and there are many billions of dollars chasing US real estate.  So it won't be like 2008 at all.
The big risk right now is a global conflict.  If Russia takes Ukraine, China may invade Taiwan and India the Kashmir.  This greatly increases the probability of a nuclear exchange.
There is also a remote chance Best Korea will fark around as well, especially if Kim's sister wants to prove her leadership by shelling a SK town or sink one of their navy ships, or a Japanese ship.
Iran may also use this to launch a new attack against Saudi oil fields.
A weak USA means dictators across the globe get a free pass at starting conflict.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-26 10:12:44 AM  
In my region a company called Chronos Solutions was in charge of selling foreclosed FHA/USDA/Native/HUD loan homes for the past 3-4 years. They select local realtors who do the actual selling and a list of approved appraisers who do the appraising.

A new company has been selected recently which is typical for new HUD secretaries. It's called Raine Company.

I was getting maybe 1-2 appraisal requests a month the past couple of years and maybe 5-9 a month the couple years before that. In the past month I've had 5 orders. We even got a raise. The price of these appraisals has been $350 for about 15 years and $300 before that. Now we get $400 and it takes somewhere between 45-90 days to be paid after the date you turn in the report, which is typical.

It sucks that people will be getting kicked out of their houses. I typically see homes that mentally unstable people lived in, either thru drug use or years of white knuckling it and finally breaking down. You can tell the difference between down on their luck people who lost a job or some other terrible way of losing your home. Which in the USA could mean medical bills. But most have had their carpet ripped out because of all the urine and dog poop. Holes punched in the drywall and interior doors. Writing on the walls and other obvious mental health red flags.

Sometimes, it's just a nice home and the people had bad luck, but usually I'm thankful for my N95 mask.
 
2022-01-26 10:26:44 AM  
LOL no. Demand is far too high and investment companies like Blackrock are taking advantage of Kafkaesque building requirements to snatch up housing. They will also use their outsized wealth to ensure those requirements stay Kafkaesque.

There will never be another 2008, housing will not be affordable in our lifetimes.

/We can fix this with land value taxes.
 
2022-01-26 10:30:25 AM  

Communist Middleschool Student: LOL no. Demand is far too high and investment companies like Blackrock are taking advantage of Kafkaesque building requirements to snatch up housing. They will also use their outsized wealth to ensure those requirements stay Kafkaesque.

There will never be another 2008, housing will not be affordable in our lifetimes.

/We can fix this with land value taxes.


Last night I had to kill a cockroach in the bathroom.  Very Kafkaesque.
 
2022-01-26 11:43:14 AM  

Rapmaster2000: Communist Middleschool Student: LOL no. Demand is far too high and investment companies like Blackrock are taking advantage of Kafkaesque building requirements to snatch up housing. They will also use their outsized wealth to ensure those requirements stay Kafkaesque.

There will never be another 2008, housing will not be affordable in our lifetimes.

/We can fix this with land value taxes.

Last night I had to kill a cockroach in the bathroom.  Very Kafkaesque.


That was your brother.
 
2022-01-26 12:23:14 PM  
Low of 7F in Rochester tonight.  They couldn't have planned it for the summer months?

/looking to buy a first house
//2 years of foreclosures should do wonders for undoing last year's housing bubble
///wonder when they hit the market
 
2022-01-26 1:02:33 PM  

yet_another_wumpus: Low of 7F in Rochester tonight.  They couldn't have planned it for the summer months?

/looking to buy a first house
//2 years of foreclosures should do wonders for undoing last year's housing bubble
///wonder when they hit the market


The banks are not going to short sale the foreclosures, unfortunately. That only happens if prices are dropping and the lienholder wants out as quickly as possible. What you'll see is more houses listed at market price. This may indeed put some slight downward pressure on prices, but it will still be a seller's market.

My advice is buy something below what you can afford to live comfortably. Aspirational housebuying as a new entrant is a fool's errand. In 5-10 years you'll have so much equity that you can buy the house of your dream.
 
2022-01-26 1:19:50 PM  

Shaggy_C: In 5-10 years you'll have so much equity that you can buy the house of your dream.


Um, the price of your dream house will go up in tandem with the price of your pile of crap house.

The only solution for the increase in prices is increasing supply.

Now, they ain't creating more land.  So single family home prices in prime areas will always be extremely high and will continue to go up.

However, as long as the NIMBYs aren't in charge, you can always build up.  So there is a chance you can afford a nice condo or apartment near your work.

Difficulty: The NIMBYs are in charge in most areas.  If they are and are successfully blocking at least some construction, then prices will continue to increase.

How do you know when an area has enough construction?  When prices stabilize or go down.  If that doesn't happen, not enough is being built.
 
2022-01-26 1:37:06 PM  

Geotpf: Um, the price of your dream house will go up in tandem with the price of your pile of crap house.


Let's do the math here, assuming a 20% increase in home prices and that your dream house is double the price of your starter home.

The house you buy today is 100k. You put your 20% down and then pay the mortgage for 5 years. Your remaining loan balance is around $72k. In the meantime the house grows in value by 20%. If you sell, you get the $20k for increase in value + $20k from your first down payment + $8k in mortgage principle. Your down payment available for a new house is now $48k

Your dream house is 200k. You couldn't afford the down payment originally, because it was 40k. That house increased in price by 20% over the five years just like yours and is and is now worth $240k. Guess what, the 20% down on that is $48k, which is exactly what you have in hand from your starter house. You can now afford the down payment your dream house.

Of course your monthly payment will be higher, but based on the conversation above we assume in the scenario that your are living below your means in the first house versus stretching yourself for the second.
 
2022-01-26 1:45:32 PM  

Shaggy_C: Geotpf: Um, the price of your dream house will go up in tandem with the price of your pile of crap house.

Let's do the math here, assuming a 20% increase in home prices and that your dream house is double the price of your starter home.

The house you buy today is 100k. You put your 20% down and then pay the mortgage for 5 years. Your remaining loan balance is around $72k. In the meantime the house grows in value by 20%. If you sell, you get the $20k for increase in value + $20k from your first down payment + $8k in mortgage principle. Your down payment available for a new house is now $48k

Your dream house is 200k. You couldn't afford the down payment originally, because it was 40k. That house increased in price by 20% over the five years just like yours and is and is now worth $240k. Guess what, the 20% down on that is $48k, which is exactly what you have in hand from your starter house. You can now afford the down payment your dream house.

Of course your monthly payment will be higher, but based on the conversation above we assume in the scenario that your are living below your means in the first house versus stretching yourself for the second.


Yeah, that works.  Of course, this assumes house prices are going up by "only" 20% over a period of five years.

The house I bought in 2009 (in Riverside, California) is now worth more than three times (more than a 200% increase) what I paid, less than 13 years later.
 
2022-01-26 1:55:06 PM  

Geotpf: Shaggy_C: Geotpf: Um, the price of your dream house will go up in tandem with the price of your pile of crap house.

Let's do the math here, assuming a 20% increase in home prices and that your dream house is double the price of your starter home.

The house you buy today is 100k. You put your 20% down and then pay the mortgage for 5 years. Your remaining loan balance is around $72k. In the meantime the house grows in value by 20%. If you sell, you get the $20k for increase in value + $20k from your first down payment + $8k in mortgage principle. Your down payment available for a new house is now $48k

Your dream house is 200k. You couldn't afford the down payment originally, because it was 40k. That house increased in price by 20% over the five years just like yours and is and is now worth $240k. Guess what, the 20% down on that is $48k, which is exactly what you have in hand from your starter house. You can now afford the down payment your dream house.

Of course your monthly payment will be higher, but based on the conversation above we assume in the scenario that your are living below your means in the first house versus stretching yourself for the second.

Yeah, that works.  Of course, this assumes house prices are going up by "only" 20% over a period of five years.

The house I bought in 2009 (in Riverside, California) is now worth more than three times (more than a 200% increase) what I paid, less than 13 years later.


But isn't that even better (assuming both houses triple)? The new house costs 600k, but the old one sells for 300k. You had 20k down and 8k of principal paid on a 100k loan, so you have 228k after the sale (using the same math from above that ignores money put into the house, closing costs, etc.). This means you could pay almost 35% down if you really wanted.
 
2022-01-26 2:08:32 PM  

Rapmaster2000: Communist Middleschool Student: LOL no. Demand is far too high and investment companies like Blackrock are taking advantage of Kafkaesque building requirements to snatch up housing. They will also use their outsized wealth to ensure those requirements stay Kafkaesque.

There will never be another 2008, housing will not be affordable in our lifetimes.

/We can fix this with land value taxes.

Last night I had to kill a cockroach in the bathroom.  Very Kafkaesque.


would you prefer Byzantine?
 
2022-01-26 3:41:45 PM  

Geotpf: Shaggy_C: In 5-10 years you'll have so much equity that you can buy the house of your dream.

Um, the price of your dream house will go up in tandem with the price of your pile of crap house.

The only solution for the increase in prices is increasing supply.

Now, they ain't creating more land.  So single family home prices in prime areas will always be extremely high and will continue to go up.

However, as long as the NIMBYs aren't in charge, you can always build up.  So there is a chance you can afford a nice condo or apartment near your work.

Difficulty: The NIMBYs are in charge in most areas.  If they are and are successfully blocking at least some construction, then prices will continue to increase.

How do you know when an area has enough construction?  When prices stabilize or go down.  If that doesn't happen, not enough is being built.


More Difficulty:

Many people that move into these NIMBY areas see the potential fiscal upside of the area becoming high density when they are forced to sell.

It might make very good sense to live somewhere else, but the upside here is just to good to ignore.

You could make the argument that we have a lack of "living space with enormous fiscal upside" available.
 
2022-01-26 4:02:52 PM  

hoodiowithtudio: I wonder what the total owed is.



i'm sure the press will give out all the details.     NOT
 
2022-01-26 4:03:26 PM  

Incog_Neeto: I feel like the banks can just eat these mortgages.



they will as long as the government reimburses them.
 
2022-01-26 4:04:20 PM  

Geotpf: Shaggy_C: Geotpf: Um, the price of your dream house will go up in tandem with the price of your pile of crap house.

Let's do the math here, assuming a 20% increase in home prices and that your dream house is double the price of your starter home.

The house you buy today is 100k. You put your 20% down and then pay the mortgage for 5 years. Your remaining loan balance is around $72k. In the meantime the house grows in value by 20%. If you sell, you get the $20k for increase in value + $20k from your first down payment + $8k in mortgage principle. Your down payment available for a new house is now $48k

Your dream house is 200k. You couldn't afford the down payment originally, because it was 40k. That house increased in price by 20% over the five years just like yours and is and is now worth $240k. Guess what, the 20% down on that is $48k, which is exactly what you have in hand from your starter house. You can now afford the down payment your dream house.

Of course your monthly payment will be higher, but based on the conversation above we assume in the scenario that your are living below your means in the first house versus stretching yourself for the second.

Yeah, that works.  Of course, this assumes house prices are going up by "only" 20% over a period of five years.

The house I bought in 2009 (in Riverside, California) is now worth more than three times (more than a 200% increase) what I paid, less than 13 years later.


don't sell if you can avoid it.
 
2022-01-26 4:04:42 PM  

groppet: Change the address number out front, that will buy you some time.



companies do it all the time.
 
2022-01-26 4:07:28 PM  

Linux_Yes: Geotpf: Shaggy_C: Geotpf: Um, the price of your dream house will go up in tandem with the price of your pile of crap house.

Let's do the math here, assuming a 20% increase in home prices and that your dream house is double the price of your starter home.

The house you buy today is 100k. You put your 20% down and then pay the mortgage for 5 years. Your remaining loan balance is around $72k. In the meantime the house grows in value by 20%. If you sell, you get the $20k for increase in value + $20k from your first down payment + $8k in mortgage principle. Your down payment available for a new house is now $48k

Your dream house is 200k. You couldn't afford the down payment originally, because it was 40k. That house increased in price by 20% over the five years just like yours and is and is now worth $240k. Guess what, the 20% down on that is $48k, which is exactly what you have in hand from your starter house. You can now afford the down payment your dream house.

Of course your monthly payment will be higher, but based on the conversation above we assume in the scenario that your are living below your means in the first house versus stretching yourself for the second.

Yeah, that works.  Of course, this assumes house prices are going up by "only" 20% over a period of five years.

The house I bought in 2009 (in Riverside, California) is now worth more than three times (more than a 200% increase) what I paid, less than 13 years later.

don't sell if you can avoid it.


I need a place to live, so I ain't selling any time soon.
 
2022-01-26 4:08:16 PM  

jso2897: You lost.
Get over it.
The country is about 1000% stronger than it was with tangerine boy in the WH, so shut your fat, weak ass, cuck.



bad news for ya', homes.

this country has been fading since the 80's.  Trumper had nothing to do with it.  he was a symptom, not a cause.

that's what happens when run amuck capitalism is allowed to run amock.
 
2022-01-26 4:09:04 PM  

Geotpf: Linux_Yes: Geotpf: Shaggy_C: Geotpf: Um, the price of your dream house will go up in tandem with the price of your pile of crap house.

Let's do the math here, assuming a 20% increase in home prices and that your dream house is double the price of your starter home.

The house you buy today is 100k. You put your 20% down and then pay the mortgage for 5 years. Your remaining loan balance is around $72k. In the meantime the house grows in value by 20%. If you sell, you get the $20k for increase in value + $20k from your first down payment + $8k in mortgage principle. Your down payment available for a new house is now $48k

Your dream house is 200k. You couldn't afford the down payment originally, because it was 40k. That house increased in price by 20% over the five years just like yours and is and is now worth $240k. Guess what, the 20% down on that is $48k, which is exactly what you have in hand from your starter house. You can now afford the down payment your dream house.

Of course your monthly payment will be higher, but based on the conversation above we assume in the scenario that your are living below your means in the first house versus stretching yourself for the second.

Yeah, that works.  Of course, this assumes house prices are going up by "only" 20% over a period of five years.

The house I bought in 2009 (in Riverside, California) is now worth more than three times (more than a 200% increase) what I paid, less than 13 years later.

don't sell if you can avoid it.

I need a place to live, so I ain't selling any time soon.



it will only increase in value, odds are.  in cali and riverside.  unless it becomes too expensive to maintain, then sell.
 
2022-01-26 4:10:36 PM  

Linux_Yes: jso2897: You lost.
Get over it.
The country is about 1000% stronger than it was with tangerine boy in the WH, so shut your fat, weak ass, cuck.


bad news for ya', homes.

this country has been fading since the 80's.  Trumper had nothing to do with it.  he was a symptom, not a cause.

that's what happens when run amuck capitalism is allowed to run amock.


I'd point more to the end of the cold war, but I'd guess that's more of a western world thing too
 
2022-01-26 9:12:35 PM  

jack_o_the_hills: Northern: Incog_Neeto: I feel like the banks can just eat these mortgages.

Right now the homes are likely worth more than the lien on the property, and there are many billions of dollars chasing US real estate.  So it won't be like 2008 at all.
The big risk right now is a global conflict.  If Russia takes Ukraine, China may invade Taiwan and India the Kashmir.  This greatly increases the probability of a nuclear exchange.
There is also a remote chance Best Korea will fark around as well, especially if Kim's sister wants to prove her leadership by shelling a SK town or sink one of their navy ships, or a Japanese ship.
Iran may also use this to launch a new attack against Saudi oil fields.
A weak USA means dictators across the globe get a free pass at starting conflict.

And since they've had the 4 previous years to build up momentum, sometimes actively assisted by said weak USA, you might be right.


There was a good article on this a few weeks back in The Economist.  It goes deeper than a few missing ambassadors, our state department in DC was also gutted.
 
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