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(The Drive)   Moscow's Ukrainian "Countdown" can now be measured, either in knots or in tons of smoke belched   (thedrive.com) divider line
    More: Followup, Atlantic Ocean, Russia, Baltic Sea, North Sea, group of Russian amphibious warfare vessels, Russian Navy, Royal Netherlands Navy, Amphibious assault ship  
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2244 clicks; posted to Politics » on 20 Jan 2022 at 12:17 AM (17 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-01-19 7:37:14 PM  
I guess there is no one to blame
We're leaving ground
Will things ever be the same again?
 
2022-01-19 7:42:25 PM  
Ok, my optimism might be misplaced. This is pretty f*cking bad.
 
2022-01-19 7:46:55 PM  
i.pinimg.comView Full Size
 
2022-01-19 7:51:01 PM  
How long does it take for a ship to get from the English Channel, across the Med, and through the Bosphorus?  Because this war is going to start in that number of days +12 to 36 hours.
 
2022-01-19 8:40:08 PM  

Warthog: How long does it take for a ship to get from the English Channel, across the Med, and through the Bosphorus?  Because this war is going to start in that number of days +12 to 36 hours.


It could be the slow and obvious movement of these "amphibious warfare vessels" is a trick, like a magician getting you to focus on one hand while his other hand is pulling out a knife.  If Putin is going to invade Ukraine, it will happen before these ships reach the Bosporus.
 
2022-01-19 8:42:54 PM  

Warthog: How long does it take for a ship to get from the English Channel, across the Med, and through the Bosphorus?


Depends on if they chose to go through Istanbul or Constantinople.
 
2022-01-19 8:45:19 PM  

Mantour: Warthog: How long does it take for a ship to get from the English Channel, across the Med, and through the Bosphorus?

Depends on if they chose to go through Istanbul or Constantinople.


That's no one's business but the Turks!
 
2022-01-19 8:52:31 PM  

Sgygus: Warthog: How long does it take for a ship to get from the English Channel, across the Med, and through the Bosphorus?  Because this war is going to start in that number of days +12 to 36 hours.

It could be the slow and obvious movement of these "amphibious warfare vessels" is a trick, like a magician getting you to focus on one hand while his other hand is pulling out a knife.  If Putin is going to invade Ukraine, it will happen before these ships reach the Bosporus.


I had that thought too, although back of napkin math suggests these guys should be in position around the same time as the Siberian units heading to Belarus for their "exercise."  If I were a betting man, I'd bet this thing kicks off sometime in the 1st week of February.
 
2022-01-19 9:00:21 PM  
So they are sending 6 LST's (which stands for Large Slow Targets) for a trip across the Med (a NATO lake) and then what, a forced passage through the Bosporus?  Maybe Erdogan has his back on this?
At the very most, these ships are a Russian game of "I'm not touching you!" to tease NATO with.  Russia has no intention of any action that could lead to a hot war with NATO if they are routing these this way. Unless Vlad has filled them up and crewed them with people who have pissed him off.  Looks like they don't even have proper farking escorts.
Besides, they already have 4 Ropuchas and 3 Alligators based in the Black Sea.  It's not like a beach assault is their only (or best) option for getting troops into Ukraine.  Well, more of Ukraine.

This is just attention whoring.
 
2022-01-19 9:05:51 PM  

TommyDeuce: So they are sending 6 LST's (which stands for Large Slow Targets) for a trip across the Med (a NATO lake) and then what, a forced passage through the Bosporus?  Maybe Erdogan has his back on this?
At the very most, these ships are a Russian game of "I'm not touching you!" to tease NATO with.  Russia has no intention of any action that could lead to a hot war with NATO if they are routing these this way. Unless Vlad has filled them up and crewed them with people who have pissed him off.  Looks like they don't even have proper farking escorts.
Besides, they already have 4 Ropuchas and 3 Alligators based in the Black Sea.  It's not like a beach assault is their only (or best) option for getting troops into Ukraine.  Well, more of Ukraine.

This is just attention whoring.


NATO can't touch them until he starts shooting. If NATO tries something, it's the pretext he needs to start a war.  If NATO doesn't try something, they give him the numbers he needs for a credible 4th front on Ukraine. It's a win win for him.
 
2022-01-19 9:16:20 PM  

Warthog: TommyDeuce: So they are sending 6 LST's (which stands for Large Slow Targets) for a trip across the Med (a NATO lake) and then what, a forced passage through the Bosporus?  Maybe Erdogan has his back on this?
At the very most, these ships are a Russian game of "I'm not touching you!" to tease NATO with.  Russia has no intention of any action that could lead to a hot war with NATO if they are routing these this way. Unless Vlad has filled them up and crewed them with people who have pissed him off.  Looks like they don't even have proper farking escorts.
Besides, they already have 4 Ropuchas and 3 Alligators based in the Black Sea.  It's not like a beach assault is their only (or best) option for getting troops into Ukraine.  Well, more of Ukraine.

This is just attention whoring.

NATO can't touch them until he starts shooting. If NATO tries something, it's the pretext he needs to start a war.  If NATO doesn't try something, they give him the numbers he needs for a credible 4th front on Ukraine. It's a win win for him.


But the Russian's are also strutting about "cutting us off form SWIFT is an act of war, and we will respond!"  Responding with an act of further war is dooming 6 crews to a very quick watery grave.

Besides NATO does not need to touch them to keep them out of the Black Sea.  We just need the Turks to say "I'm sorry, what paperwork?  You'll need to anchor on the Med side until we get this all sorted out.
 
2022-01-19 9:38:27 PM  

Sgygus: Warthog: How long does it take for a ship to get from the English Channel, across the Med, and through the Bosphorus?  Because this war is going to start in that number of days +12 to 36 hours.

It could be the slow and obvious movement of these "amphibious warfare vessels" is a trick, like a magician getting you to focus on one hand while his other hand is pulling out a knife.  If Putin is going to invade Ukraine, it will happen before these ships reach the Bosporus.


Pretty sure we did the same thing during the Gulf War with the Iowa Class Battleships, making the Iraqis think we were going to do an amphibious landing near Basra.
 
2022-01-20 12:16:50 AM  
fark Russia.

/In the butt.
//With no lube.
///Bite the pillow.
///I'm going in dry.
 
2022-01-20 12:21:49 AM  

TommyDeuce: Warthog: TommyDeuce: So they are sending 6 LST's (which stands for Large Slow Targets) for a trip across the Med (a NATO lake) and then what, a forced passage through the Bosporus?  Maybe Erdogan has his back on this?
At the very most, these ships are a Russian game of "I'm not touching you!" to tease NATO with.  Russia has no intention of any action that could lead to a hot war with NATO if they are routing these this way. Unless Vlad has filled them up and crewed them with people who have pissed him off.  Looks like they don't even have proper farking escorts.
Besides, they already have 4 Ropuchas and 3 Alligators based in the Black Sea.  It's not like a beach assault is their only (or best) option for getting troops into Ukraine.  Well, more of Ukraine.

This is just attention whoring.

NATO can't touch them until he starts shooting. If NATO tries something, it's the pretext he needs to start a war.  If NATO doesn't try something, they give him the numbers he needs for a credible 4th front on Ukraine. It's a win win for him.

But the Russian's are also strutting about "cutting us off form SWIFT is an act of war, and we will respond!"  Responding with an act of further war is dooming 6 crews to a very quick watery grave.

Besides NATO does not need to touch them to keep them out of the Black Sea.  We just need the Turks to say "I'm sorry, what paperwork?  You'll need to anchor on the Med side until we get this all sorted out.


I may be misremembering, but I think there's some kind of agreement between Russia and Turkey that allows Russia to enter the Black Sea without requiring Turkish permission beforehand.
 
2022-01-20 12:29:22 AM  

TommyDeuce: Besides NATO does not need to touch them to keep them out of the Black Sea.  We just need the Turks to say "I'm sorry, what paperwork?  You'll need to anchor on the Med side until we get this all sorted out.


Russia has a treaty which allows them passage.  Also, Turkey is part of NATO.

Also, also, Russia doesn't need these ships, though they would certainly help.
 
2022-01-20 12:35:20 AM  
Too bad Sweden, Finland, and Ukraine can't join NATO tomorrow. Not sure if they'd all want to but it would sure be fun to piss Putin off. Hell, maybe add Kazakhstan too? Why not?

I don't have any idea what the hell I'm talking about anyway.
 
2022-01-20 12:35:58 AM  
You could even say it's a final countdown.
worst cover ever! *the final count down*
Youtube FjeMDvCdrtc
 
2022-01-20 12:37:38 AM  

TommyDeuce: So they are sending 6 LST's (which stands for Large Slow Targets) for a trip across the Med (a NATO lake) and then what, a forced passage through the Bosporus?  Maybe Erdogan has his back on this?
At the very most, these ships are a Russian game of "I'm not touching you!" to tease NATO with.  Russia has no intention of any action that could lead to a hot war with NATO if they are routing these this way. Unless Vlad has filled them up and crewed them with people who have pissed him off.  Looks like they don't even have proper farking escorts.
Besides, they already have 4 Ropuchas and 3 Alligators based in the Black Sea.  It's not like a beach assault is their only (or best) option for getting troops into Ukraine.  Well, more of Ukraine.

This is just attention whoring.


As a Black Sea state Russia is permitted by international convention to transit warships through the Turkish Straits
 
2022-01-20 12:41:33 AM  
Just let Russia buy the Crimean.
 
2022-01-20 12:43:58 AM  

qorkfiend: TommyDeuce: So they are sending 6 LST's (which stands for Large Slow Targets) for a trip across the Med (a NATO lake) and then what, a forced passage through the Bosporus?  Maybe Erdogan has his back on this?
At the very most, these ships are a Russian game of "I'm not touching you!" to tease NATO with.  Russia has no intention of any action that could lead to a hot war with NATO if they are routing these this way. Unless Vlad has filled them up and crewed them with people who have pissed him off.  Looks like they don't even have proper farking escorts.
Besides, they already have 4 Ropuchas and 3 Alligators based in the Black Sea.  It's not like a beach assault is their only (or best) option for getting troops into Ukraine.  Well, more of Ukraine.

This is just attention whoring.

As a Black Sea state Russia is permitted by international convention to transit warships through the Turkish Straits


Not if the Turkish Gays have anything to say about it!

/got nuthin'
 
2022-01-20 12:47:58 AM  
We can send a steady stream of C17's into Kyiv, unload under screens into hangars and depart.

Rinse and repeat.

Saw the same thing at Boeing Field just before Desert Storm, but in reverse with C141's.
 
2022-01-20 12:51:12 AM  
Please tell me why this is important to me.  I've forgotten.
 
2022-01-20 12:58:59 AM  
I don't see NATO doing anything even if thing get hot in the region. There will be plenty of sternly-worded letters, but I would be very surprised if there's a military response. Not over the Ukraine.
 
2022-01-20 1:14:56 AM  
Considering how good the US Navy has gotten at accidentally crashing into random shiat over the last few years there is a pretty good chance the Russians might have to stop for a fender-bender along the way.
 
2022-01-20 1:16:10 AM  
Countdown.  That's what happens when you mess with:

64.media.tumblr.comView Full Size
 
2022-01-20 1:18:34 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-20 1:19:45 AM  
A strange game.

The only winning move is not to play.

How about a nice game of chess?

/Hope the Russians love their children too.
 
2022-01-20 1:25:59 AM  
This is like China-USA. They're too economically entertwined for war. Russia needs the rest of Europe as much as Europe needs them.
 
2022-01-20 1:28:46 AM  
I can't believe nobody has the balls to call Pootie out on this. The whole farking world hates Russia.  It's an easy win for Biden to whip it out and slap Pootie across the face, making him beg for more.
 
2022-01-20 1:29:10 AM  

yagottabefarkinkiddinme: A strange game.

The only winning move is not to play.

How about a nice game of chess?

/Hope the Russians love their children too.


They don't.
 
2022-01-20 1:36:42 AM  

Corn_Fed: yagottabefarkinkiddinme: A strange game.

The only winning move is not to play.

How about a nice game of chess?

/Hope the Russians love their children too.

They don't.


Can confirm. Am Russian. Haven't spoken to pops in over a year.
 
2022-01-20 1:43:30 AM  

foo monkey: Please tell me why this is important to me.  I've forgotten.


Not going to bother since you'll just forget again.
 
2022-01-20 1:47:43 AM  
Sounds like it's time for some more impotent threats and tsk tsking. We might even have to deploy a harrumph.
 
2022-01-20 1:57:25 AM  

jjorsett: Sounds like it's time for some more impotent threats and tsk tsking. We might even have to deploy a harrumph.


encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.comView Full Size
 
2022-01-20 2:02:46 AM  

CrazyUncle: I can't believe nobody has the balls to call Pootie out on this. The whole farking world hates Russia.  It's an easy win for Biden to whip it out and slap Pootie across the face, making him beg for more.


How many times have we seen people get killed in road rage incidents? Why does that happen? It happens because under certain circumstances some people will not back off and instead escalate things to the point that death results from it. This can happen on the international level. If a strongman leader thinks he'd be killed by his own people for backing down, then he won't back down because he has nothing to lose.

A complicating factor is that Biden can't allow himself to appear to back down at all. Politically here in the US that would be completely unacceptable for not just him but the Democratic party as a whole. This looks like a situation where neither side wants problems but neither side is in a position to give in to the other side. If that's the case then Putin might calculate that his best move is to grab what he wants from Ukraine and dare the West to do anything about it.

If the West does nothing in response, Putin wins. If the West does some limp response, Putin wins. If the West tries a strong response but logistics makes it untenable, Putin wins. If the US wants to do something but Europeans, realizing they'd get the worst of a largescale war, step in to negotiate a settlement, Putin wins. He only really loses IF the West steps in and kicks his ass. He might like those odds.
 
2022-01-20 2:05:20 AM  

TommyDeuce: Warthog: TommyDeuce: So they are sending 6 LST's (which stands for Large Slow Targets) for a trip across the Med (a NATO lake) and then what, a forced passage through the Bosporus?  Maybe Erdogan has his back on this?
At the very most, these ships are a Russian game of "I'm not touching you!" to tease NATO with.  Russia has no intention of any action that could lead to a hot war with NATO if they are routing these this way. Unless Vlad has filled them up and crewed them with people who have pissed him off.  Looks like they don't even have proper farking escorts.
Besides, they already have 4 Ropuchas and 3 Alligators based in the Black Sea.  It's not like a beach assault is their only (or best) option for getting troops into Ukraine.  Well, more of Ukraine.

This is just attention whoring.

NATO can't touch them until he starts shooting. If NATO tries something, it's the pretext he needs to start a war.  If NATO doesn't try something, they give him the numbers he needs for a credible 4th front on Ukraine. It's a win win for him.

But the Russian's are also strutting about "cutting us off form SWIFT is an act of war, and we will respond!"  Responding with an act of further war is dooming 6 crews to a very quick watery grave.

Besides NATO does not need to touch them to keep them out of the Black Sea.  We just need the Turks to say "I'm sorry, what paperwork?  You'll need to anchor on the Med side until we get this all sorted out.


Due to treaty obligations of the Montreux Convention, the Turks cannot bar passage to Russian (or other black sea countries) military ships unless they are a direct threat to Turkey or are aircraft carriers.

Also barring Russia from SWIFT is now off the table due to European NATO members objections.
 
2022-01-20 2:09:39 AM  

jjorsett: foo monkey: Please tell me why this is important to me.  I've forgotten.

Not going to bother since you'll just forget again.


I swear, this time I'll remember.  My short-term memory is awesome right now.
 
2022-01-20 2:31:18 AM  
This is mostly a sign that Putin believes that come any conflict, these vessels would be targeted in the first rounds and would never get a chance to do anything useful. The only way for them to not be scrap on the bottom in the first hour is to be far from the scene. Moving them out of the area can be played many ways for domestic and international consumption.
 
2022-01-20 2:55:19 AM  

Warthog: Sgygus: Warthog: How long does it take for a ship to get from the English Channel, across the Med, and through the Bosphorus?  Because this war is going to start in that number of days +12 to 36 hours.

It could be the slow and obvious movement of these "amphibious warfare vessels" is a trick, like a magician getting you to focus on one hand while his other hand is pulling out a knife.  If Putin is going to invade Ukraine, it will happen before these ships reach the Bosporus.

I had that thought too, although back of napkin math suggests these guys should be in position around the same time as the Siberian units heading to Belarus for their "exercise."  If I were a betting man, I'd bet this thing kicks off sometime in the 1st week of February.


But he can't move his Siberian forces with the Japanese in Manchuria! Stalin knows better!

/ I play way too many strategic games.
 
2022-01-20 3:07:51 AM  
Cant we just switch out their diesel fuel with regular unleaded and let the problem sort itself out?
 
2022-01-20 3:16:41 AM  
Does the US have a carrier group in the general area?
 
2022-01-20 3:34:19 AM  
Biden just had a press conference where he said that if Putin only grabs a small piece of Ukraine, we won't care too much. Shades of 1938.

Nom nom.

You get what you vote for, and Ukraine gets it good and hard.
We're headed for a global conflict again, little by farking little.
 
2022-01-20 3:48:09 AM  

Abe Vigoda's Ghost: Does the US have a carrier group in the general area?


Yes, in mid December the USS Truman was ordered to stay in the Mediterranean instead of crossing the Suez Canal to travel to the Persian gulf as originally planned. Americans wanted to send a symbol of assurance to Europe during the original buildup of Russian troops on Ukraine's border. It's still there as of Jan 18th.
If Russia invades, the carrier group will end up symbolizing how powerless the US is to stop the Russian military.
 
2022-01-20 4:22:53 AM  
Well, now that Russia has Sevastopol warm water seaport, they're happy to move some of their boats from the colder climate of St. Petersburg. Vacationing and all.
 
2022-01-20 4:28:53 AM  
You'd think if he was going to invade, he wouldn't play this incredibly slow game of putting individual pieces in place over a 3 month period.
Pretty sure there's a few anti-ship missile systems on their way to Ukraine as I type.

It's getting dumb, not frightening.
 
2022-01-20 5:48:59 AM  

fastfxr: You'd think if he was going to invade, he wouldn't play this incredibly slow game of putting individual pieces in place over a 3 month period.
Pretty sure there's a few anti-ship missile systems on their way to Ukraine as I type.

It's getting dumb, not frightening.


What is being sent over are short range weapons, like NLAWs/Javelins that take an afternoon to learn the basics of operating and that is why they are being sent over. For reference, Javelins have a max range of about 4 km. Ukrainians are supposed to defeat a full Russian military invasion with these things? The Russian equivalent, the Kornet, has a range of around 8-10 km. Russian Tornado G (upgraded Grad) rocket artillery has a range of 30-40 km. Russian Iskander intermediate missiles, which have recently been spotted being transported to the Ukrainian border, have a range of 500 km. Russian missiles like the Kalibr have a range of 2500 km. The weapons being sent to Ukraine will making it slightly more costly to win for the Russians, but will not change anything.

Nothing of significance that could alter the outcome of a war between Russia and Ukraine is on its way. There is no point in sending them because they take too much time to teach soldiers how to operate them. For example long and medium range anti-air systems able to deny Russian fighters and bombers access take about a year to train soldiers to use properly. More importantly handing them over would mean the sensors and command modules would give Russians, and the Chinese by proxy, insight into modern western weapon systems once they are captured. Ukrainians might get shipments of short range Stingers and old stock Soviet era Igla's. But they again have a range of about 4-5 km. Modern Aircraft attack and fly safely above that.
 
2022-01-20 6:04:27 AM  

TommyDeuce: Warthog: TommyDeuce: So they are sending 6 LST's (which stands for Large Slow Targets) for a trip across the Med (a NATO lake) and then what, a forced passage through the Bosporus?  Maybe Erdogan has his back on this?
At the very most, these ships are a Russian game of "I'm not touching you!" to tease NATO with.  Russia has no intention of any action that could lead to a hot war with NATO if they are routing these this way. Unless Vlad has filled them up and crewed them with people who have pissed him off.  Looks like they don't even have proper farking escorts.
Besides, they already have 4 Ropuchas and 3 Alligators based in the Black Sea.  It's not like a beach assault is their only (or best) option for getting troops into Ukraine.  Well, more of Ukraine.

This is just attention whoring.

NATO can't touch them until he starts shooting. If NATO tries something, it's the pretext he needs to start a war.  If NATO doesn't try something, they give him the numbers he needs for a credible 4th front on Ukraine. It's a win win for him.

But the Russian's are also strutting about "cutting us off form SWIFT is an act of war, and we will respond!"  Responding with an act of further war is dooming 6 crews to a very quick watery grave.

Besides NATO does not need to touch them to keep them out of the Black Sea.  We just need the Turks to say "I'm sorry, what paperwork?  You'll need to anchor on the Med side until we get this all sorted out.


Russia was given Constantinople as the result of WW1, you think Turkey is going to do anything.
 
2022-01-20 6:06:05 AM  

Weatherkiss: TommyDeuce: Warthog: TommyDeuce: So they are sending 6 LST's (which stands for Large Slow Targets) for a trip across the Med (a NATO lake) and then what, a forced passage through the Bosporus?  Maybe Erdogan has his back on this?
At the very most, these ships are a Russian game of "I'm not touching you!" to tease NATO with.  Russia has no intention of any action that could lead to a hot war with NATO if they are routing these this way. Unless Vlad has filled them up and crewed them with people who have pissed him off.  Looks like they don't even have proper farking escorts.
Besides, they already have 4 Ropuchas and 3 Alligators based in the Black Sea.  It's not like a beach assault is their only (or best) option for getting troops into Ukraine.  Well, more of Ukraine.

This is just attention whoring.

NATO can't touch them until he starts shooting. If NATO tries something, it's the pretext he needs to start a war.  If NATO doesn't try something, they give him the numbers he needs for a credible 4th front on Ukraine. It's a win win for him.

But the Russian's are also strutting about "cutting us off form SWIFT is an act of war, and we will respond!"  Responding with an act of further war is dooming 6 crews to a very quick watery grave.

Besides NATO does not need to touch them to keep them out of the Black Sea.  We just need the Turks to say "I'm sorry, what paperwork?  You'll need to anchor on the Med side until we get this all sorted out.

I may be misremembering, but I think there's some kind of agreement between Russia and Turkey that allows Russia to enter the Black Sea without requiring Turkish permission beforehand.


WW1 gave Constantinople to Russia, so yeah.
 
2022-01-20 6:18:38 AM  

ExYank: This is mostly a sign that Putin believes that come any conflict, these vessels would be targeted in the first rounds and would never get a chance to do anything useful. The only way for them to not be scrap on the bottom in the first hour is to be far from the scene. Moving them out of the area can be played many ways for domestic and international consumption.


Do you even geography, bro?  These ships are coming from the far north and from the Baltic and are being moved towards the Black Sea.  They are not currently in harms way, but are seemingly being moved there.
 
2022-01-20 6:24:08 AM  

Ketchuponsteak: Weatherkiss: TommyDeuce: Warthog: TommyDeuce: So they are sending 6 LST's (which stands for Large Slow Targets) for a trip across the Med (a NATO lake) and then what, a forced passage through the Bosporus?  Maybe Erdogan has his back on this?
At the very most, these ships are a Russian game of "I'm not touching you!" to tease NATO with.  Russia has no intention of any action that could lead to a hot war with NATO if they are routing these this way. Unless Vlad has filled them up and crewed them with people who have pissed him off.  Looks like they don't even have proper farking escorts.
Besides, they already have 4 Ropuchas and 3 Alligators based in the Black Sea.  It's not like a beach assault is their only (or best) option for getting troops into Ukraine.  Well, more of Ukraine.

This is just attention whoring.

NATO can't touch them until he starts shooting. If NATO tries something, it's the pretext he needs to start a war.  If NATO doesn't try something, they give him the numbers he needs for a credible 4th front on Ukraine. It's a win win for him.

But the Russian's are also strutting about "cutting us off form SWIFT is an act of war, and we will respond!"  Responding with an act of further war is dooming 6 crews to a very quick watery grave.

Besides NATO does not need to touch them to keep them out of the Black Sea.  We just need the Turks to say "I'm sorry, what paperwork?  You'll need to anchor on the Med side until we get this all sorted out.

I may be misremembering, but I think there's some kind of agreement between Russia and Turkey that allows Russia to enter the Black Sea without requiring Turkish permission beforehand.

WW1 gave Constantinople to Russia, so yeah.


Uh, what? Russian (and other) access to the Turkish Straits is governed by the 1936 Montreux Convention.
 
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