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(Project-Syndicate)   And now, a list of all the experts who predicted 2021's inflation:   (project-syndicate.org) divider line
    More: Fail, Economics, Personal consumption expenditures price index, Crisis, Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom, Inflation, Monetary policy, Financial crisis, global financial crisis  
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1239 clicks; posted to Business » and Main » on 19 Jan 2022 at 6:05 PM (16 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-01-19 6:20:21 PM  
What a shiatty paywall/ad.
 
2022-01-19 6:27:02 PM  
Just as a counterpoint, think of all the money soaked up into crypto, various astronomically valued stocks, speculative takeovers and ventures, money plowed into new factories or corporate infrastructure, NFTs, and cash stashed away in illicit accounts overseas, and in real estate bubbles in just about every major city in the US. Got it? I am sure I am missing something, but you get the idea.

Now imagine all of that money chasing oatmeal or light bulbs or bananas or orange juice or whatever the inflation bean counters think people spend money on. That would be a hell of a lot of inflation.

Point being that all of those things I named above do not "do" anything for the economy and, in the main, can't be borrowed against. If they represent collateral, then it is shaky collateral probably supporting more speculation. Loan quality overall is dropping, but interest rates have not risen to reflect that. It is all funny money.

So I want to suggest that if there was not a black hole sucking all of that money out of the system, all that money would be in the system driving up prices more than they have been driven up. Eventually, all that funny money will disappear as a crash, OR it will all come rushing back into the system, leading to the inflation that everyone assumes will never happen.

Or, you know, we are in a new reality where you could sell Vancouver and buy Beijing, Moscow and Paris, and a picture of a monkey can be traded for an office building in LA. Sony and Apple believe that the best way they can invest their profits is to build electric cars. Walmart accepts tokens along with actual cash. Insert madness here.
 
2022-01-19 6:53:13 PM  
I would guess it's a matter of forecasters being too optimistic or too pessimistic. The optimists probably thought the various supply chain disruptions are going to clear up quickly, while the pessimists probably thought that the recovery would be so slow that nobody would be able to afford anything. Plus there's just the fact that, most of the time, the easiest way to get a prediction right is to just predict that present trends will continue, or that outliers will revert to the mean.

What I'm really curious about is, years later, if economists are going to figure out how big of a role the whole Ever Given disaster played in the supply chain hijinks.
 
hej
2022-01-19 6:59:18 PM  
The inflation denial and deflection wasn't a surprise here, but acting like nobody here saw it coming out could have predicted it is laughable.
 
2022-01-19 7:09:32 PM  
What?

Everybody has been screaming inflation for at least a year.

Inflation has been the most constant thing everybody has been saying about the economy.

Home prices jumped by 50% in a few months.

The only counter was that maybe inflation could be damped by rich people vacuuming all of the money and investing in stonks. Basically, have low velocity of money.
 
2022-01-19 7:15:28 PM  

mr0x: What?

Everybody has been screaming inflation for at least a year.

Inflation has been the most constant thing everybody has been saying about the economy.

Home prices jumped by 50% in a few months.

The only counter was that maybe inflation could be damped by rich people vacuuming all of the money and investing in stonks. Basically, have low velocity of money.


I was told over and over here on the Business tab that rents and home prices didn't matter, and baically to STFU about my whining about cost of living, and the obvious people who were causing it. So...No, I think you're wrong, you and the rest of this tab didn't see it coming at all.
 
2022-01-19 7:36:47 PM  
I've been predicting runaway inflation every year since Obama was elected.   Told ya so.
 
2022-01-19 7:37:27 PM  

2fardownthread: astronomically valued stocks ... can't be borrowed against.


They can be borrowed against in multiple ways (margin investing or lines of credit, notably).

/nitpicking
 
2022-01-19 7:51:58 PM  

mr0x: What?

Everybody has been screaming inflation for at least a year.

Inflation has been the most constant thing everybody has been saying about the economy.

Home prices jumped by 50% in a few months.

The only counter was that maybe inflation could be damped by rich people vacuuming all of the money and investing in stonks. Basically, have low velocity of money.


Prices were going up for a FEW years. It's only a "surprise" to fit the narrative that it's all Biden's fault. The pandemic didn't help, either... but I saw prices inching up and quite frankly, something had to give anyway. In the 80s, I paid $2/lb for hamburger. In 2016, I paid $2/lb for hamburger. I swear some food items were even cheaper in the past decade then they were in the 80s and 90s.

This would be the "bread" part of "bread and circuses" the Roman leadership used to make sure was available aplenty to the masses. At some point, you simply run out of ways to keep the food prices low. Most of it has been on the backs of Americans being underpaid for decades, some of it on increased efficiency and corporations consolidating production to larger facilities (and selling under multiple brands/labels).
 
2022-01-19 8:24:33 PM  
Nobody saw it coming? Really? Does no one buy groceries? Houses? Cars?

We had people sticking their heads in the sand, sure, but a lot of us were either saying "well duh" for quite a while, or trying to pin it on Biden now that the guy clamoring for negative interest rates isn't there anymore. I'm not saying the people plugging their ears about it are dumber than the latter group, but in some moments there's some stiff competition.
 
2022-01-19 8:26:33 PM  
The price of money -- the cost to borrow -- is the measure of inflation. If you want to borrow money for 30 years, your loan has risen about 1%. That article is cant and propaganda.
 
2022-01-19 8:41:01 PM  

2fardownthread: I am sure I am missing something, but you get the idea.


Missing in this article was the fact that the cost of goods rose a lot because people curtailed travel, going out to eat, going to events, movies, and other more service-oriented parts of the economy. There were a few months between the vaccine rollout and Delta, but it never really got back up to normal, and the money shifted to different parts of the economy.
 
2022-01-19 9:03:50 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: mr0x: What?

Everybody has been screaming inflation for at least a year.

Inflation has been the most constant thing everybody has been saying about the economy.

Home prices jumped by 50% in a few months.

The only counter was that maybe inflation could be damped by rich people vacuuming all of the money and investing in stonks. Basically, have low velocity of money.

I was told over and over here on the Business tab that rents and home prices didn't matter, and baically to STFU about my whining about cost of living, and the obvious people who were causing it. So...No, I think you're wrong, you and the rest of this tab didn't see it coming at all.


Not only did I see it coming, I adjusted some of my 40-stonks for it and pulled retirement a little closer (or so I think).
 
2022-01-19 9:06:26 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size

What Conservatives actually believe.

 
2022-01-19 9:07:09 PM  

LesserEvil: mr0x: What?

Everybody has been screaming inflation for at least a year.

Inflation has been the most constant thing everybody has been saying about the economy.

Home prices jumped by 50% in a few months.

The only counter was that maybe inflation could be damped by rich people vacuuming all of the money and investing in stonks. Basically, have low velocity of money.

Prices were going up for a FEW years. It's only a "surprise" to fit the narrative that it's all Biden's fault. The pandemic didn't help, either... but I saw prices inching up and quite frankly, something had to give anyway. In the 80s, I paid $2/lb for hamburger. In 2016, I paid $2/lb for hamburger. I swear some food items were even cheaper in the past decade then they were in the 80s and 90s.

This would be the "bread" part of "bread and circuses" the Roman leadership used to make sure was available aplenty to the masses. At some point, you simply run out of ways to keep the food prices low. Most of it has been on the backs of Americans being underpaid for decades, some of it on increased efficiency and corporations consolidating production to larger facilities (and selling under multiple brands/labels).


The 80s hamburger and today's hamburgers are not the same.

Today's hamburgers are a chemical concoction that resembles a hamburger.
 
2022-01-19 9:14:31 PM  

mr0x: Today's hamburgers are a chemical concoction that resembles a hamburger.


Shamburger!
 
2022-01-19 9:14:32 PM  

2fardownthread: money soaked up into crypto, various astronomically valued stocks, speculative takeovers and ventures, money plowed into new factories or corporate infrastructure, NFTs


That's not how money works.

Do you think that if someone buys a stock that money sits in the shares like an account or something?

I'll break it down for the slow kids in the back. The value of an imaginary beanie baby, Blowie the Whale, is $10,000. It is the agreed upon price because the last one sold for that figure at auction. If 100 examples exist in the world, the 'market cap' is $1M, but is $1M really tied up in it? No. Not even $10,000 is tied up in it if the original seller uses said money.
 
2022-01-19 9:18:33 PM  
When is it inflation? As far as I can tell, rents have consistently risen for most of my life even under "no inflation" or "very low inflation" conditions. Wages have diverged, it seems white collar jobs particularly in tech make more than ever and have consistently beat these rising prices while blue collar jobs have not done as well and retail/service jobs had dead stagnant wages until literally just recently.

As has been noted elsewhere, it seems like "inflation" only becomes an issue when workers get paid more.
 
2022-01-19 9:34:47 PM  

adamatari: When is it inflation? As far as I can tell, rents have consistently risen for most of my life even under "no inflation" or "very low inflation" conditions. Wages have diverged, it seems white collar jobs particularly in tech make more than ever and have consistently beat these rising prices while blue collar jobs have not done as well and retail/service jobs had dead stagnant wages until literally just recently.

As has been noted elsewhere, it seems like "inflation" only becomes an issue when workers get paid more.


That too. If the inflation is spurred by rising wages in the lower-paying sectors, then it should probably just be looked at as healthy. Those are the people who are most sensitive to inflation, after all.
 
2022-01-19 9:45:07 PM  

adamatari: When is it inflation? As far as I can tell, rents have consistently risen for most of my life even under "no inflation" or "very low inflation" conditions. Wages have diverged, it seems white collar jobs particularly in tech make more than ever and have consistently beat these rising prices while blue collar jobs have not done as well and retail/service jobs had dead stagnant wages until literally just recently.

As has been noted elsewhere, it seems like "inflation" only becomes an issue when workers get paid more.


In an economy like that of the US, there's pretty much always going to be inflation. It's how steep that inflation is. This time around the average Joe is feeling it more than usual.
 
2022-01-19 9:46:29 PM  
Four Farkers I know of, including myself, predicted this and were laughed at. Three are in this thread. I hate to say "I told you so."

Actually, I love it. I love saying "I told you so."
 
2022-01-19 9:50:11 PM  

Likwit: Four Farkers I know of, including myself, predicted this and were laughed at. Three are in this thread. I hate to say "I told you so."

Actually, I love it. I love saying "I told you so."


Yeah, this was in no way unexpected.

You can't nearly double the amount of dollars in circulation and expect nothing to happen.
 
2022-01-19 9:53:00 PM  

Nullav: Nobody saw it coming? Really? Does no one buy groceries? Houses? Cars?


In any given year, very few people will buy houses or cars.

Groceries haven't really gotten more expensive for me, although there was a stretch of a few weeks last summer when I couldn't find 2-liter bottles of Coke in the store. I guess I got lucky?
 
2022-01-19 10:06:31 PM  

Nullav: adamatari: When is it inflation? As far as I can tell, rents have consistently risen for most of my life even under "no inflation" or "very low inflation" conditions. Wages have diverged, it seems white collar jobs particularly in tech make more than ever and have consistently beat these rising prices while blue collar jobs have not done as well and retail/service jobs had dead stagnant wages until literally just recently.

As has been noted elsewhere, it seems like "inflation" only becomes an issue when workers get paid more.

That too. If the inflation is spurred by rising wages in the lower-paying sectors, then it should probably just be looked at as healthy. Those are the people who are most sensitive to inflation, after all.


Inflation is a trickier concept than many people realize.  If you ever want to stir the pot with economists or their associated nerd analysts, casually define inflation and/ or escalation near them, and then walk away.
 
2022-01-19 10:10:45 PM  

mr0x: LesserEvil: mr0x: What?

Everybody has been screaming inflation for at least a year.

Inflation has been the most constant thing everybody has been saying about the economy.

Home prices jumped by 50% in a few months.

The only counter was that maybe inflation could be damped by rich people vacuuming all of the money and investing in stonks. Basically, have low velocity of money.

Prices were going up for a FEW years. It's only a "surprise" to fit the narrative that it's all Biden's fault. The pandemic didn't help, either... but I saw prices inching up and quite frankly, something had to give anyway. In the 80s, I paid $2/lb for hamburger. In 2016, I paid $2/lb for hamburger. I swear some food items were even cheaper in the past decade then they were in the 80s and 90s.

This would be the "bread" part of "bread and circuses" the Roman leadership used to make sure was available aplenty to the masses. At some point, you simply run out of ways to keep the food prices low. Most of it has been on the backs of Americans being underpaid for decades, some of it on increased efficiency and corporations consolidating production to larger facilities (and selling under multiple brands/labels).

The 80s hamburger and today's hamburgers are not the same.

Today's hamburgers are a chemical concoction that resembles a hamburger.


You did catch the part where I said prices have been held artificially low because of an increase in efficiency and consolidated production, right? Beef in the 80s likely came from family farms, today's beef comes from Cattle Production Facility #34-K, Section 22, Level 8.

Chickens have somehow been bread to provide more meat in their breasts than most Americans have muscle in their chests (Do not challenge those evolved dinosaurs).

Manufacturing has been moved to China, then to India, and soon to Africa, as corporations seek out the cheapest labor pools to exploit and environments to poison.

Prices have been kept low to keep American consumers lulled into joining "conservatives" in maintaining the status quo, even while the rich got richer and the middle class disappeared.
 
2022-01-19 10:12:10 PM  

LesserEvil: Chickens have somehow been breadbred


Sigh....
 
2022-01-19 10:51:45 PM  

Arkanaut: Nullav: Nobody saw it coming? Really? Does no one buy groceries? Houses? Cars?

In any given year, very few people will buy houses or cars.

Groceries haven't really gotten more expensive for me, although there was a stretch of a few weeks last summer when I couldn't find 2-liter bottles of Coke in the store. I guess I got lucky?


You're very lucky. Our groceries have gone up. My wife recently asked me for an increase in the family food budget for the first time since we got married. Our electricity is going up by $0.02 per kWh, and the power company is doing away with rebates for off-peak heat pump water heaters. That will translate to about a $60 per month increase for us even though we're on a green tariff. City water is going up by over 30% as well. Prices and wages here in Japan have been more or less stagnant for the last few decades. This is going to hurt a lot of families.

Economists here in Japan have been saying for a while that when the world really starts to outpace Japan, QoL will take a nose dive. Corona may prove to be the tipping point. A guy I know who's an absolutely brilliant macro analyst and investor thinks a day will come soon when something like a hamburger will be an out-of-reach luxury item for the average Japanese person.
 
2022-01-19 10:53:13 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: mr0x: What?

Everybody has been screaming inflation for at least a year.

Inflation has been the most constant thing everybody has been saying about the economy.

Home prices jumped by 50% in a few months.

The only counter was that maybe inflation could be damped by rich people vacuuming all of the money and investing in stonks. Basically, have low velocity of money.

I was told over and over here on the Business tab that rents and home prices didn't matter, and baically to STFU about my whining about cost of living, and the obvious people who were causing it. So...No, I think you're wrong, you and the rest of this tab didn't see it coming at all.


Remember when middle class professionals were comfortably working from home and getting stimmy checks? 

I know it helped some people, but it was ham-fisted and basically turned into a giant giveaway bonanza from the treasury. 

Take this theoretical family.  Two adults, two kids, AGI of $100,000.

Stimulus check #1: $3400
Stimulus check #2: $2400
Stimulus check #3: $5600
July - Dec 2021 @$500/mo = 3000

So... over the last two years, they got $14,400 in stimulus benefits.

They also refinanced their yucky 4.5% interest rate on their house down to a 2.75% and save an extra $300/mo.

Maybe they had student loans and were able to repay them... now they have a bunch of extra cash each month.  Maybe they sunk it into a new car.  Now there's more money chasing new cars just as new car shipments struggle under the chip shortage... so they look at used cars, bidding them up.  Multiply this by millions of similar families.  All those flush bank accounts, chasing the same goods, at a time when labor from the bottom of the market can't keep up (production, transportation, services, etc.)

More money chasing fewer goods.  Nothing new.
 
2022-01-19 10:53:29 PM  

Sim Tree: Likwit: Four Farkers I know of, including myself, predicted this and were laughed at. Three are in this thread. I hate to say "I told you so."

Actually, I love it. I love saying "I told you so."

Yeah, this was in no way unexpected.

You can't nearly double the amount of dollars in circulation and expect nothing to happen.


If you look back at Fark threads, you'd think it was unimaginable. Maybe willful denial? Then when it really started to happen we waved it away as "not that much" or said that it didn't really count as inflation because it's related to the supply chain or whatever the excuse of the day was.
 
2022-01-19 11:57:05 PM  

2fardownthread: Just as a counterpoint, think of all the money soaked up into crypto, various astronomically valued stocks, speculative takeovers and ventures, money plowed into new factories or corporate infrastructure, NFTs, and cash stashed away in illicit accounts overseas, and in real estate bubbles in just about every major city in the US. Got it? I am sure I am missing something, but you get the idea.

Now imagine all of that money chasing oatmeal or light bulbs or bananas or orange juice or whatever the inflation bean counters think people spend money on. That would be a hell of a lot of inflation.

Point being that all of those things I named above do not "do" anything for the economy and, in the main, can't be borrowed against. If they represent collateral, then it is shaky collateral probably supporting more speculation. Loan quality overall is dropping, but interest rates have not risen to reflect that. It is all funny money.

So I want to suggest that if there was not a black hole sucking all of that money out of the system, all that money would be in the system driving up prices more than they have been driven up. Eventually, all that funny money will disappear as a crash, OR it will all come rushing back into the system, leading to the inflation that everyone assumes will never happen.

Or, you know, we are in a new reality where you could sell Vancouver and buy Beijing, Moscow and Paris, and a picture of a monkey can be traded for an office building in LA. Sony and Apple believe that the best way they can invest their profits is to build electric cars. Walmart accepts tokens along with actual cash. Insert madness here.


I wonder if people who lived at the opening of the last century experienced a similar bewilderment as we do?
 
2022-01-19 11:57:41 PM  
Course they'd already had WW1
 
2022-01-20 12:00:26 AM  

2fardownthread: Just as a counterpoint, think of all the money soaked up into crypto, various astronomically valued stocks, speculative takeovers and ventures, money plowed into new factories or corporate infrastructure, NFTs, and cash stashed away in illicit accounts overseas, and in real estate bubbles in just about every major city in the US. Got it? I am sure I am missing something, but you get the idea.

Now imagine all of that money chasing oatmeal or light bulbs or bananas or orange juice or whatever the inflation bean counters think people spend money on. That would be a hell of a lot of inflation.

Point being that all of those things I named above do not "do" anything for the economy and, in the main, can't be borrowed against. If they represent collateral, then it is shaky collateral probably supporting more speculation. Loan quality overall is dropping, but interest rates have not risen to reflect that. It is all funny money.

So I want to suggest that if there was not a black hole sucking all of that money out of the system, all that money would be in the system driving up prices more than they have been driven up. Eventually, all that funny money will disappear as a crash, OR it will all come rushing back into the system, leading to the inflation that everyone assumes will never happen.

Or, you know, we are in a new reality where you could sell Vancouver and buy Beijing, Moscow and Paris, and a picture of a monkey can be traded for an office building in LA. Sony and Apple believe that the best way they can invest their profits is to build electric cars. Walmart accepts tokens along with actual cash. Insert madness here.


You think that if someone puts money into some asset, whether it be stocks or tulip bulb NFTs, that money just disappears from the system?  Like, the person who sold the asset just sets it on fire for some reason?
 
2022-01-20 12:06:34 AM  
I saw it coming. When TFG and Biden sent "rescue" packages as cash, that alone causes inflation because the purchasing power of consumers increases some.
 
2022-01-20 12:26:48 AM  

BMFPitt: 2fardownthread: Just as a counterpoint, think of all the money soaked up into crypto, various astronomically valued stocks, speculative takeovers and ventures, money plowed into new factories or corporate infrastructure, NFTs, and cash stashed away in illicit accounts overseas, and in real estate bubbles in just about every major city in the US. Got it? I am sure I am missing something, but you get the idea.

Now imagine all of that money chasing oatmeal or light bulbs or bananas or orange juice or whatever the inflation bean counters think people spend money on. That would be a hell of a lot of inflation.

Point being that all of those things I named above do not "do" anything for the economy and, in the main, can't be borrowed against. If they represent collateral, then it is shaky collateral probably supporting more speculation. Loan quality overall is dropping, but interest rates have not risen to reflect that. It is all funny money.

So I want to suggest that if there was not a black hole sucking all of that money out of the system, all that money would be in the system driving up prices more than they have been driven up. Eventually, all that funny money will disappear as a crash, OR it will all come rushing back into the system, leading to the inflation that everyone assumes will never happen.

Or, you know, we are in a new reality where you could sell Vancouver and buy Beijing, Moscow and Paris, and a picture of a monkey can be traded for an office building in LA. Sony and Apple believe that the best way they can invest their profits is to build electric cars. Walmart accepts tokens along with actual cash. Insert madness here.

You think that if someone puts money into some asset, whether it be stocks or tulip bulb NFTs, that money just disappears from the system?  Like, the person who sold the asset just sets it on fire for some reason?


Yes he does. He's said probably a dozen times that he's disappointed in Tesla because people buying the stock as it ran up sucked money away from investments in energy 😐
 
2022-01-20 1:46:53 AM  

2fardownthread: Just as a counterpoint, think of all the money soaked up into crypto, various astronomically valued stocks, speculative takeovers and ventures, money plowed into new factories or corporate infrastructure, NFTs, and cash stashed away in illicit accounts overseas, and in real estate bubbles in just about every major city in the US. Got it? I am sure I am missing something, but you get the idea.

Now imagine all of that money chasing oatmeal or light bulbs or bananas or orange juice or whatever the inflation bean counters think people spend money on. That would be a hell of a lot of inflation.

Point being that all of those things I named above do not "do" anything for the economy and, in the main, can't be borrowed against. If they represent collateral, then it is shaky collateral probably supporting more speculation. Loan quality overall is dropping, but interest rates have not risen to reflect that. It is all funny money.

So I want to suggest that if there was not a black hole sucking all of that money out of the system, all that money would be in the system driving up prices more than they have been driven up. Eventually, all that funny money will disappear as a crash, OR it will all come rushing back into the system, leading to the inflation that everyone assumes will never happen.

Or, you know, we are in a new reality where you could sell Vancouver and buy Beijing, Moscow and Paris, and a picture of a monkey can be traded for an office building in LA. Sony and Apple believe that the best way they can invest their profits is to build electric cars. Walmart accepts tokens along with actual cash. Insert madness here.


It's worth noting that those "black holes" of money sucking you mention, don't really take money out of the system. The money they pay for those stocks, cryptocurrencies, etc all goes somewhere, specifically to the person that sold them the asset (stock, cryptocurrency or whatever) . Those funds are still circulating somewhere. Even if the person that sold them the asset just dropped them into a bank, they became loans and were used by others to buy something else.

As for the value of those black hole assets that may have appreciated in value since they were bought and the represented unrealized gains, like a Bitcoin that was mined for instance, they are only worth what people are willing to pay for. If everyone sold their Bitcoin tomorrow, it would functionally go to $0 and be worthless because there were no buyers, and if there were buyers at the current market rates then they would be pulling money out of the system as fast as the sellers were pushing money in. It really does take money from someone to get money out of these assets. At somewhere along the way if you received a USD for something, someone else had to surrender it.

Functionally for our economy they are not really black holes, or money sinks, they are just another form of asset like gold or bananas that you can chase. Government bonds are the only real exception in an around about sort of way, but even they don't operate all that different on a practical level.

Bank loans by comparison are essentially money printing at its finest regardless of the quality of loan. It effectively duplicates available funds by allowing money to both be a liquid asset in someone's bank account ready to spend as well as spent on someone else's asset in the form of a loan which the funds from which can then be deposited into the asset sellers bank account to repeat the cycle of life over and over again. This is why control over the interest rates is always cited as an optimal tool for keeping inflation in check. Higher the rates, the less people take out loans and the less the money gets effectively duplicated in our economy. Mind you the actual process and reasons for all this is more complicated than a fark post can handle, but I hope the basics survive my butchering of the subject.
 
2022-01-20 2:25:44 AM  
Last year Dollar Tree raised their prices to $1.25 - the writing was on the wall, people
 
2022-01-20 4:02:47 AM  

2fardownthread: Just as a counterpoint, think of all the money soaked up into crypto, various astronomically valued stocks, speculative takeovers and ventures, money plowed into new factories or corporate infrastructure, NFTs, and cash stashed away in illicit accounts overseas, and in real estate bubbles in just about every major city in the US. Got it? I am sure I am missing something, but you get the idea.

Now imagine all of that money chasing oatmeal or light bulbs or bananas or orange juice or whatever the inflation bean counters think people spend money on. That would be a hell of a lot of inflation.

Point being that all of those things I named above do not "do" anything for the economy and, in the main, can't be borrowed against. If they represent collateral, then it is shaky collateral probably supporting more speculation. Loan quality overall is dropping, but interest rates have not risen to reflect that. It is all funny money.

So I want to suggest that if there was not a black hole sucking all of that money out of the system, all that money would be in the system driving up prices more than they have been driven up. Eventually, all that funny money will disappear as a crash, OR it will all come rushing back into the system, leading to the inflation that everyone assumes will never happen.

Or, you know, we are in a new reality where you could sell Vancouver and buy Beijing, Moscow and Paris, and a picture of a monkey can be traded for an office building in LA. Sony and Apple believe that the best way they can invest their profits is to build electric cars. Walmart accepts tokens along with actual cash. Insert madness here.


There IS a black hole sucking all the money away. It's the .01%. Once they have it, consider it GONE. It will never have the economic force, dollar per dollar, of a woman on assistance buying diapers.

Just like you burned it.

It's been staved off by printing tons of money and giving it to the actual economy.
 
2022-01-20 4:16:58 AM  

Bennie Crabtree: mr0x: What?

Everybody has been screaming inflation for at least a year.

Inflation has been the most constant thing everybody has been saying about the economy.

Home prices jumped by 50% in a few months.

The only counter was that maybe inflation could be damped by rich people vacuuming all of the money and investing in stonks. Basically, have low velocity of money.

I was told over and over here on the Business tab that rents and home prices didn't matter, and baically to STFU about my whining about cost of living, and the obvious people who were causing it. So...No, I think you're wrong, you and the rest of this tab didn't see it coming at all.


Dude, if you're priced out of eating steak, bu you can still afford ground meat, that barely counts as inflation.

The idiots also say that the (inflation corrected) $1000 pc from 20 years ago is more expensive than the $1000 modern pc. Because the modern one is a better device. Ignoring that  working on an ancient device like that very often just isn't an option. It isn't like I can do my work on a Pentium 3.

Hell, even the internet would barely work on it.
 
2022-01-20 5:43:27 AM  
Everything in Dollar Tree and Dollar General used to be $1.  Now the minimum is $1.25 and more items are well above that.  Electric cars are cheaper.  Yay for the little guy.
 
2022-01-20 6:14:58 AM  

LesserEvil: mr0x: LesserEvil: mr0x: What?

Everybody has been screaming inflation for at least a year.

Inflation has been the most constant thing everybody has been saying about the economy.

Home prices jumped by 50% in a few months.

The only counter was that maybe inflation could be damped by rich people vacuuming all of the money and investing in stonks. Basically, have low velocity of money.

Prices were going up for a FEW years. It's only a "surprise" to fit the narrative that it's all Biden's fault. The pandemic didn't help, either... but I saw prices inching up and quite frankly, something had to give anyway. In the 80s, I paid $2/lb for hamburger. In 2016, I paid $2/lb for hamburger. I swear some food items were even cheaper in the past decade then they were in the 80s and 90s.

This would be the "bread" part of "bread and circuses" the Roman leadership used to make sure was available aplenty to the masses. At some point, you simply run out of ways to keep the food prices low. Most of it has been on the backs of Americans being underpaid for decades, some of it on increased efficiency and corporations consolidating production to larger facilities (and selling under multiple brands/labels).

The 80s hamburger and today's hamburgers are not the same.

Today's hamburgers are a chemical concoction that resembles a hamburger.

You did catch the part where I said prices have been held artificially low because of an increase in efficiency and consolidated production, right? Beef in the 80s likely came from family farms, today's beef comes from Cattle Production Facility #34-K, Section 22, Level 8.

Chickens have somehow been bread to provide more meat in their breasts than most Americans have muscle in their chests (Do not challenge those evolved dinosaurs).

Manufacturing has been moved to China, then to India, and soon to Africa, as corporations seek out the cheapest labor pools to exploit and environments to poison.

Prices have been kept low to keep American consumers lulled into joining "conservatives" in maintaining the status quo, even while the rich got richer and the middle class disappeared.


I'm saying efficiency and consolidated production implies the same product created at a lower price. It is not the same product. Animals are bred for rapid growth, pumped full of chemicals and fed the cheapest genetically modified and pesticide laced feed. Your bread is full of lowest quality and preservatives and you sauces are just pure chemical concoctions.

It might taste about the same but will destroy your health.

If you're eating these "cheap" foods, you're borrowing from your future health.
 
2022-01-20 8:17:07 AM  

Likwit: Sim Tree: Likwit: Four Farkers I know of, including myself, predicted this and were laughed at. Three are in this thread. I hate to say "I told you so."

Actually, I love it. I love saying "I told you so."

Yeah, this was in no way unexpected.

You can't nearly double the amount of dollars in circulation and expect nothing to happen.

If you look back at Fark threads, you'd think it was unimaginable. Maybe willful denial? Then when it really started to happen we waved it away as "not that much" or said that it didn't really count as inflation because it's related to the supply chain or whatever the excuse of the day was.


It's because the inflation hasn't been that noticeable, except in a few situations:

1. You bought a used car since mid 2020*
2. You have the memory of a goldfish regarding gasoline.
3. You are a renter who has resigned a lease after the middle of the year
4. You literally count every penny.


1. If you bought a new car, the new car cost didn't change much.  Buy new and trade in, you got more for your used car, so you came out ahead.  Trade used for used?  No real difference in your life.  Bought a used car without a trade - you got hosed.

2.  Gasoline has bounced between $2 and $4 since the mid aughts:

Fark user imageView Full Size
3.  Rent sucks, but it's a relatively steady suck.
Fark user imageView Full Size


Note that the majority of Americans are not renters, and renters skew young.  Fark is getting gray around the temples, so you'd find more renter hyperventilating on a site that skews younger like Tumblr or Reddit.

Fark user imageView Full Size



That leaves #4, penny counting, if groceries go up 5%, and your groceries normally cost you between and $100-130 a week, they total range from $105 to $136.50 instead.  It's just not going to be something that catches your attention unless you actually look at the price of every item you put in your cart. If groceries go up 5%, and your groceries normally cost you between and $100-130 a week, they total range from $105 to $136.50 instead.  It's just not going to be something that catches your attention unless you actually look at the price of every item you put in your cart.

So, all in all, for most people, inflation hasn't been terribly noticeable. THe people who won't shut up about it are usually the ones who are glued to Fox News, constantly mouthing along with their pearl-clutching "BuT hAvE yOu BeEn To ThE gRoCeRy StOrE lAtElY?"  That's been the pushback - it's part of the official GOP talking points.

(In my experience, the best pushback with these people is to put on your best "bleeding heart" caring face and tell them about food pantry options.  Once they start coming across as poor instead of "very concerned" about inflation, they usually STFU.)
 
2022-01-20 8:35:15 AM  
Speaking of FRED. Here's the M1 graph...

Fark user imageView Full Size


Anyone who didn't publicly say that inflation was here or on the way was either:
1) Ignorant of basic economics
or
2) Had a political axe to grind
 
2022-01-20 8:42:13 AM  

Izunbacol: Likwit: Sim Tree: Likwit: Four Farkers I know of, including myself, predicted this and were laughed at. Three are in this thread. I hate to say "I told you so."

Actually, I love it. I love saying "I told you so."

Yeah, this was in no way unexpected.

You can't nearly double the amount of dollars in circulation and expect nothing to happen.

If you look back at Fark threads, you'd think it was unimaginable. Maybe willful denial? Then when it really started to happen we waved it away as "not that much" or said that it didn't really count as inflation because it's related to the supply chain or whatever the excuse of the day was.

It's because the inflation hasn't been that noticeable, except in a few situations:

1. You bought a used car since mid 2020*
2. You have the memory of a goldfish regarding gasoline.
3. You are a renter who has resigned a lease after the middle of the year
4. You literally count every penny.


1. If you bought a new car, the new car cost didn't change much.  Buy new and trade in, you got more for your used car, so you came out ahead.  Trade used for used?  No real difference in your life.  Bought a used car without a trade - you got hosed.

2.  Gasoline has bounced between $2 and $4 since the mid aughts:

[Fark user image image 850x307]3.  Rent sucks, but it's a relatively steady suck.
[Fark user image image 762x478]

Note that the majority of Americans are not renters, and renters skew young.  Fark is getting gray around the temples, so you'd find more renter hyperventilating on a site that skews younger like Tumblr or Reddit.

[Fark user image image 682x408]


That leaves #4, penny counting, if groceries go up 5%, and your groceries normally cost you between and $100-130 a week, they total range from $105 to $136.50 instead.  It's just not going to be something that catches your attention unless you actually look at the price of every item you put in your cart. If groceries go up 5%, and your groceries normally cost you between and $100-130 a week, they total range from $105 to $136.50 instead.  It's just not going to be something that catches your attention unless you actually look at the price of every item you put in your cart.

So, all in all, for most people, inflation hasn't been terribly noticeable. THe people who won't shut up about it are usually the ones who are glued to Fox News, constantly mouthing along with their pearl-clutching "BuT hAvE yOu BeEn To ThE gRoCeRy StOrE lAtElY?"  That's been the pushback - it's part of the official GOP talking points.

(In my experience, the best pushback with these people is to put on your best "bleeding heart" caring face and tell them about food pantry options.  Once they start coming across as poor instead of "very concerned" about inflation, they usually STFU.)


Sure. Anyone concerned about prices going up is just a right winger.

Never mind that energy is up 32% and food is up 7%. fark that. Who uses energy or eats food anyway? The Fox News set, I bet.
 
2022-01-20 10:10:42 AM  

Likwit: Izunbacol: Likwit: Sim Tree: Likwit: Four Farkers I know of, including myself, predicted this and were laughed at. Three are in this thread. I hate to say "I told you so."

Actually, I love it. I love saying "I told you so."

Yeah, this was in no way unexpected.

You can't nearly double the amount of dollars in circulation and expect nothing to happen.

If you look back at Fark threads, you'd think it was unimaginable. Maybe willful denial? Then when it really started to happen we waved it away as "not that much" or said that it didn't really count as inflation because it's related to the supply chain or whatever the excuse of the day was.

It's because the inflation hasn't been that noticeable, except in a few situations:

1. You bought a used car since mid 2020*
2. You have the memory of a goldfish regarding gasoline.
3. You are a renter who has resigned a lease after the middle of the year
4. You literally count every penny.


1. If you bought a new car, the new car cost didn't change much.  Buy new and trade in, you got more for your used car, so you came out ahead.  Trade used for used?  No real difference in your life.  Bought a used car without a trade - you got hosed.

2.  Gasoline has bounced between $2 and $4 since the mid aughts:

[Fark user image image 850x307]3.  Rent sucks, but it's a relatively steady suck.
[Fark user image image 762x478]

Note that the majority of Americans are not renters, and renters skew young.  Fark is getting gray around the temples, so you'd find more renter hyperventilating on a site that skews younger like Tumblr or Reddit.

[Fark user image image 682x408]


That leaves #4, penny counting, if groceries go up 5%, and your groceries normally cost you between and $100-130 a week, they total range from $105 to $136.50 instead.  It's just not going to be something that catches your attention unless you actually look at the price of every item you put in your cart. If groceries go up 5%, and your groceries normally cost you between ...


You literally just restated the "b-b-but" strawmen I listed above.

Energy is up 32% from what?  Look at the gasoline chart again... it's just bouncing around in the same $2-4 range it has for the past 15 years.  Back then, people were caught off guard with truck-based SUVs and 4-speed slushboxes left over from the 90's.  This go round - everyone knows gas rises and falls, vehicles are more efficient, and if you're caught flat footed, that's on you.

Food... again, if your normal weekly shopping is $100-130, a 7% increase would put it $107-$139.  Actually noticing that difference would be $7-9 a week.

If you count every penny, sure, but normal people are not going to even notice <$10 a week, hidden in the noise totals that vary week to week.  

Unless you have an axe to grind, that is.
 
2022-01-20 10:21:22 AM  

mr0x: I'm saying efficiency and consolidated production implies the same product created at a lower price. It is not the same product. Animals are bred for rapid growth, pumped full of chemicals and fed the cheapest genetically modified and pesticide laced feed. Your bread is full of lowest quality and preservatives and you sauces are just pure chemical concoctions.

It might taste about the same but will destroy your health.

If you're eating these "cheap" foods, you're borrowing from your future health.


I wasn't disagreeing with you, my point does not exclude the modification of products to cut costs.

One good example: Dollar Store "Grated Topping" - which isn't actually cheese, but basically cellulose filler. At least they don't call it "cheese" but they don't try and dissuade customers from thinking that.
 
2022-01-20 2:40:48 PM  

Izunbacol: Likwit: Izunbacol: Likwit: Sim Tree: Likwit: Four Farkers I know of, including myself, predicted this and were laughed at. Three are in this thread. I hate to say "I told you so."

Actually, I love it. I love saying "I told you so."

Yeah, this was in no way unexpected.

You can't nearly double the amount of dollars in circulation and expect nothing to happen.

If you look back at Fark threads, you'd think it was unimaginable. Maybe willful denial? Then when it really started to happen we waved it away as "not that much" or said that it didn't really count as inflation because it's related to the supply chain or whatever the excuse of the day was.

It's because the inflation hasn't been that noticeable, except in a few situations:

1. You bought a used car since mid 2020*
2. You have the memory of a goldfish regarding gasoline.
3. You are a renter who has resigned a lease after the middle of the year
4. You literally count every penny.


1. If you bought a new car, the new car cost didn't change much.  Buy new and trade in, you got more for your used car, so you came out ahead.  Trade used for used?  No real difference in your life.  Bought a used car without a trade - you got hosed.

2.  Gasoline has bounced between $2 and $4 since the mid aughts:

[Fark user image image 850x307]3.  Rent sucks, but it's a relatively steady suck.
[Fark user image image 762x478]

Note that the majority of Americans are not renters, and renters skew young.  Fark is getting gray around the temples, so you'd find more renter hyperventilating on a site that skews younger like Tumblr or Reddit.

[Fark user image image 682x408]


That leaves #4, penny counting, if groceries go up 5%, and your groceries normally cost you between and $100-130 a week, they total range from $105 to $136.50 instead.  It's just not going to be something that catches your attention unless you actually look at the price of every item you put in your cart. If groceries go up 5%, and your groceries normally cost you between ...

You literally just restated the "b-b-but" strawmen I listed above.

Energy is up 32% from what?  Look at the gasoline chart again... it's just bouncing around in the same $2-4 range it has for the past 15 years.  Back then, people were caught off guard with truck-based SUVs and 4-speed slushboxes left over from the 90's.  This go round - everyone knows gas rises and falls, vehicles are more efficient, and if you're caught flat footed, that's on you.

Food... again, if your normal weekly shopping is $100-130, a 7% increase would put it $107-$139.  Actually noticing that difference would be $7-9 a week.

If you count every penny, sure, but normal people are not going to even notice <$10 a week, hidden in the noise totals that vary week to week.  

Unless you have an axe to grind, that is.


People are absolutely noticing. If they're not, they're either wealthy or terrible with money and the bleeding will get them later.

Our power is going up by about $0.02 per kWh and our power company is eliminating rebates for off-peak heat pump water heaters. Our power bill will increase by about 60 bucks as a result. The reason? "Increased LPG prices." We're on a green tariff, but we're being forced to help absorb the cost.

In April, city water is going up by over 30%. The reason? "Increased materials cost and supply constraints for piping and sanitizing chemicals." That's another $30 for us.

I haven't looked at her little receipt book to see what's going on but my wife asked for an extra $150 a month for the family food budget for the first time ever.

I drive an electric car, so the gasoline thing is no skin off my nose. I wish it would go to $10 a gallon so people would try to stop using so much. But saying that it somehow "doesn't count" because gas was expensive before is really stupid. All this shiat isn't nothing.
 
2022-01-21 3:51:51 AM  
Some of you sound poor.

/Blame Biden
//Vote Republican 'cause that's what you do
 
2022-01-21 5:39:24 AM  
Anyway, if you think inflation is a thing, you should borrow money RIGHT NOW at 3.3 % or whatever it is, because you'll be paying it back when interest rates are 10%, right? You've fooled the market - now go and get rich and thank me later.
 
2022-01-21 6:00:30 AM  

cryptozoophiliac: Anyway, if you think inflation is a thing, you should borrow money RIGHT NOW at 3.3 % or whatever it is, because you'll be paying it back when interest rates are 10%, right? You've fooled the market - now go and get rich and thank me later.


There's so much economic and illiteracy in your post that it's stunning.

I also like the "hey if you think inflation is a thing you're poor and Trumpy." That's a very liberal thing to say. What a bleeding heart you are 😊
 
2022-01-21 6:15:21 AM  
Why are Fark's Super Totally Not Fake Liberals circling the wagons on this issue anyway? It's a problem caused by a global pandemic and the irresponsible policies of an (ostensibly) apolitical financial institution that extend back to the Trump administration.
 
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