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(International Business Times)   Toyota dipped by chip shortage   (ibtimes.com) divider line
    More: Awkward, Lexus, Toyota, Automobile, Automotive industry, carmaker Toyota, Hino Motors, annual production target, General Motors  
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526 clicks; posted to Business » on 19 Jan 2022 at 7:05 AM (17 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



22 Comments     (+0 »)
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2022-01-19 7:08:10 AM  
Not this shiat again.
 
2022-01-19 7:22:46 AM  
I can't wait to hear the excuses Gish Gallop comes up with this time.
 
2022-01-19 7:28:43 AM  
I have noticed a pattern in past "shortages". A short market encourages production of counterfeit products. Counterfeit products seldom live up to quality of real products and lead to early failure of the completed product.
How long until counterfeit chips make their way into this production cycle?
Right, probably already.
What do you predict will happen to the vehicles produced with counterfeit chips?
 
2022-01-19 7:38:35 AM  

snocone: I have noticed a pattern in past "shortages". A short market encourages production of counterfeit products. Counterfeit products seldom live up to quality of real products and lead to early failure of the completed product.
How long until counterfeit chips make their way into this production cycle?
Right, probably already.
What do you predict will happen to the vehicles produced with counterfeit chips?


trickier to do that with high tech products like chips.  shoes are another matter.
 
2022-01-19 7:46:55 AM  

Likwit: I can't wait to hear the excuses Gish Gallop comes up with this time.


Excuses. Why yes. You see, Toyota came to me personally and asked for my advice. I admit that I assured them that everyone would be ok and they just took me at my word.

I couldn't believe it. Toyota was asking ME for advice! Well, after they left my office, I scrambled to my Rolodex and fired off some faxes to Taipei to tell them to order up some chips STAT. But no matter where I called, the answer was the same: "We can't get to Toyota's order until we fill this order for Kazakhstan and upstate New York and Plano Texas for bitcoin mining chips."

So then I went to Intel, and they told me they were too busy designing new chips for, you guessed it, bitcoin mining. You could have knocked me over with a feather!

And that is when I knew I was licked. I sent a telegram to Akio giving him the bad news. I have to give him the dogeza next Monday in front of the board. And of course he called the media late yesterday to tell everyone. It is a huge mess. But you know, this is the way it goes in the high stakes game of "rent a flunky." Sometimes multibillion dollar companies have to rely on an average joe to do the impossible, and really, it is just asking too much of one guy with a rolodex and a fax machine.

But I DID manage to tell a guy three days ago to put all of his money in Activision stock, and he made out like a bandit. Sometimes, I am johnny on the spot. You win some, and you lose some.
 
2022-01-19 7:53:29 AM  
You would think somebody died the way people are reacting. Meh. They reduced their projected production, which had been ambitiously increased in prior announcements. It amounts to a less than projected increase.

And, as we know, what resources they have will be shunted off to the more profitable vehicles. It is a pretty slow news day.

I mean. Winnebago concept cars stole the spotlight.
 
2022-01-19 7:55:18 AM  

Linux_Yes: snocone: I have noticed a pattern in past "shortages". A short market encourages production of counterfeit products. Counterfeit products seldom live up to quality of real products and lead to early failure of the completed product.
How long until counterfeit chips make their way into this production cycle?
Right, probably already.
What do you predict will happen to the vehicles produced with counterfeit chips?

trickier to do that with high tech products like chips.  shoes are another matter.


No.
"Alarmingly, the counterfeit chip market now exceeds $75 billion in global value; counterfeiters, therefore, are massively incentivized to cash in. This problem isn't going away anytime soon, especially given the many complex dynamics at play."
https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/gray-market-floods-with-counterfeit-chips-amidst-ongoing-shortage/
 
2022-01-19 8:19:23 AM  

2fardownthread: I mean. Winnebago concept cars stole the spotlight.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-19 8:54:19 AM  

snocone: I have noticed a pattern in past "shortages". A short market encourages production of counterfeit products. Counterfeit products seldom live up to quality of real products and lead to early failure of the completed product.
How long until counterfeit chips make their way into this production cycle?
Right, probably already.
What do you predict will happen to the vehicles produced with counterfeit chips?


Where are these secret fabs with excess capacity making counterfeit chips?  Why wouldn't they just sell that capacity to make the real ones?
 
2022-01-19 10:08:20 AM  
The more this goes on, the more I think it was the like the flood that killed the dram market. And then the typhoon and then the godzilla and then the earthquake.

There is a silicon plant 10 km away from my house that still isn't making stuff and it used to make a whole bunch of 555 and regulators.  While they can make cmos 4040, there isn't a market for that.  They can't use 300 mm silicon, they can use 100 mm wafers and can make them.

Something is very wrong about this shortage and I don't know what it is.
 
2022-01-19 10:25:21 AM  

DON.MAC: The more this goes on, the more I think it was the like the flood that killed the dram market. And then the typhoon and then the godzilla and then the earthquake.

There is a silicon plant 10 km away from my house that still isn't making stuff and it used to make a whole bunch of 555 and regulators.  While they can make cmos 4040, there isn't a market for that.  They can't use 300 mm silicon, they can use 100 mm wafers and can make them.

Something is very wrong about this shortage and I don't know what it is.


In the big picture, it results in fewer vehicles being built to contribute to altering(commonly seen as killing) the planet's climate. There are more than a few entities that see that as a good thing at any price. There are also more than a few entities that are supporting the killing off of your basic human. Go figure.
Bottom line, it is somehow about a bottom line.
 
2022-01-19 10:26:02 AM  

DON.MAC: Something is very wrong about this shortage and I don't know what it is.


Collusion between the chip makers?
 
2022-01-19 11:20:16 AM  

wrenchboy: DON.MAC: Something is very wrong about this shortage and I don't know what it is.

Collusion between the chip makers?


The car dealers in USA made the largest profits ever last year, because although they sold fewer cars, the markup was much much higher than before.  They obviously love it. as long as they have someone else to blame for the massive price increases.
 
2022-01-19 11:25:58 AM  

wrenchboy: DON.MAC: Something is very wrong about this shortage and I don't know what it is.

Collusion between the chip makers?


Never.  That can't happen.  They wouldn't do that now would they? That would be illegal. I can't see it happening.
 
2022-01-19 12:35:10 PM  

OptionC: snocone: I have noticed a pattern in past "shortages". A short market encourages production of counterfeit products. Counterfeit products seldom live up to quality of real products and lead to early failure of the completed product.
How long until counterfeit chips make their way into this production cycle?
Right, probably already.
What do you predict will happen to the vehicles produced with counterfeit chips?

Where are these secret fabs with excess capacity making counterfeit chips?  Why wouldn't they just sell that capacity to make the real ones?


And what are they actually changing that impacts their lifespans?
The dies still have to be etched, wirebonded and then actually work.
Either thermal or moisture resistance shortcomings.
Maybe they're test outliers that would normally get scrapped.
 
2022-01-19 1:35:30 PM  

2fardownthread: bitcoin mining chips


Yeah. I figured that would be in there.
 
2022-01-19 4:04:37 PM  

DON.MAC: The more this goes on, the more I think it was the like the flood that killed the dram market. And then the typhoon and then the godzilla and then the earthquake.

There is a silicon plant 10 km away from my house that still isn't making stuff and it used to make a whole bunch of 555 and regulators.  While they can make cmos 4040, there isn't a market for that.  They can't use 300 mm silicon, they can use 100 mm wafers and can make them.

Something is very wrong about this shortage and I don't know what it is.


Given that we are now running into issues with things like diodes, fets and other basic semi's it does make you wonder.

The problem seems to be that these basic components are not so basic any more (logic level, tiny rds on, great response and power handling....SOB)

I'd usually default to my initial traning and blame the electronics engineers and the business models that are forced apon them but I can't quite do that
 
2022-01-19 4:08:32 PM  

snocone: Linux_Yes: snocone: I have noticed a pattern in past "shortages". A short market encourages production of counterfeit products. Counterfeit products seldom live up to quality of real products and lead to early failure of the completed product.
How long until counterfeit chips make their way into this production cycle?
Right, probably already.
What do you predict will happen to the vehicles produced with counterfeit chips?

trickier to do that with high tech products like chips.  shoes are another matter.

No.
"Alarmingly, the counterfeit chip market now exceeds $75 billion in global value; counterfeiters, therefore, are massively incentivized to cash in. This problem isn't going away anytime soon, especially given the many complex dynamics at play."
https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/gray-market-floods-with-counterfeit-chips-amidst-ongoing-shortage/


Damn I remember articles in the 90's sooking about the problem.

Does anybody here remember "fake" L2 cache chips on 486 motherboards?

They turned out to be just plastic blocks with pins in them.

A bit of clever software kept the system going.
 
2022-01-19 6:09:37 PM  
What I want to know is... (and yes, I guess I could research this for myself, but I'd probably get a more rich, creamy experience from Fark...)

What are the low-end fabs doing? I can understand high-end single-digit-nm fabs being overloaded providing the latest stuff so that kids can play video games, but who's churning out the basic stuff like simple microcontrollers, CAN transceivers, radio chips, heck, LS74xxxx logic?

Entry-level cars can't be THAT damn sophisticated that they need even Pentium level chips, and then only for the overriding coordination of some really dumb, simple chips.
 
2022-01-19 6:22:00 PM  
Question, does the dust from Doritos count as microchips?  I may have a solution to this crisis.
 
2022-01-19 6:58:49 PM  

OptionC: snocone: I have noticed a pattern in past "shortages". A short market encourages production of counterfeit products. Counterfeit products seldom live up to quality of real products and lead to early failure of the completed product.
How long until counterfeit chips make their way into this production cycle?
Right, probably already.
What do you predict will happen to the vehicles produced with counterfeit chips?

Where are these secret fabs with excess capacity making counterfeit chips?  Why wouldn't they just sell that capacity to make the real ones?


"Counterfeit" doesn't necessarily mean "made from scratch."  Things like labeling slow chips as faster chips, or putting 128GB of flash memory in a 512GB drive that lies about its capacity to the OS, rebadging and packaging short-lived eMMC as if it were a more durable storage type, and so on.  It's less that they're making knockoffs from scratch (although I'm sure that happens too), and more that they're taking one thing and selling it as another faster, bigger, or more durable thing than it really is, doing just enough work to make it "barely functional" so it'll pass initial tests.  Also, sometimes parts scavenged from old/broken boards and repackaged as if new, or parts that failed testing and should have been tossed being sold as if they're good.

But it also doesn't mean we're talking exclusively about stuff that uses high-end fabs.  Lots of ICs that aren't the latest CPU or GPU.  And lots of things that aren't chips, like the counterfeit capacitors from 10-15 years ago.
 
2022-01-19 7:38:06 PM  

maxheck: What I want to know is... (and yes, I guess I could research this for myself, but I'd probably get a more rich, creamy experience from Fark...)

What are the low-end fabs doing? I can understand high-end single-digit-nm fabs being overloaded providing the latest stuff so that kids can play video games, but who's churning out the basic stuff like simple microcontrollers, CAN transceivers, radio chips, heck, LS74xxxx logic?

Entry-level cars can't be THAT damn sophisticated that they need even Pentium level chips, and then only for the overriding coordination of some really dumb, simple chips.


They're running overtime. There's a ton of money to be made right now. We keep hearing that these damn Bitcoin miners are creating a chip shortage, but the reality is far more complex. This was going to happen regardless of COVID, but the pandemic-induced supply chain issues just made it worse.

We use more chips in more devices than ever. On both the commodities side and the production side there's a history of gluts causing massive crashes in the price of materials and final products when manufacturing capacity is expanded too quickly. This means companies are kind of timid. It costs billions of dollars to build new facilities and the end result could be over-supplying your new investment into the toilet.

There are a ton of other issues, such as manufacturers not wanting to build new fabs to make low-end chips for stale carmakers who lego their cars together with parts from a bin.

We're not getting out of this any time soon. Some estimates I've seen say 2030 or later. Even now that we're ready to address the problem, we still have to build the necessary infrastructure. Until then the suppliers will be price setters and the average person will be playing games on old hardware.
 
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