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(Twitter)   Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding lives up to his name, rings a bell to bring attention to two uneplxained problems. 1) the 30% excess deaths in South Africa. 2) the TRIPLED number of children under 12 with Long Covid in the UK. Ding ding ding   (twitter.com) divider line
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3660 clicks; posted to Main » and Politics » on 16 Jan 2022 at 10:20 PM (24 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



Voting Results (Funniest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

 
2022-01-16 11:02:20 PM  
49 votes:
guys.. i'm mild now. Go about your business. Attend crowded sporting events, eat a fish-stick with a stranger in a crowded restaurant, or whatever you humans do. Just relax. I'm mild.

// I'm not mild
 
2022-01-16 8:34:11 PM  
31 votes:

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


Fark user imageView Full Size

why do you hate capitalism, citizen?
 
2022-01-16 11:05:38 PM  
11 votes:

COVID19: guys.. i'm mild now. Go about your business. Attend crowded sporting events, eat a fish-stick with a stranger in a crowded restaurant, or whatever you humans do. Just relax. I'm mild.

// I'm not mild


I've had you over again and again, and each time you wreck the place.  I'm starting to wonder if we're really friends or if you're just using me.
 
2022-01-16 10:21:49 PM  
10 votes:
c.tenor.comView Full Size
 
2022-01-16 11:05:37 PM  
9 votes:
We know covid is going to rail us like Lex Steele yet we are still going to get a bunch of jagoffs in here that are like:

1)  "well, just stretch your ass out like a pro and LFG!"

2)  "Its not as bad the 3rd time around with no lube.  Trust me bro!"

3)   "I want comprehensive data that proves Lex Steele is in fact in the equine category before I officially declare my anus is wrecked.  Otherwise, its just fake news!"

4)  "Over a long enough period of time, everyone's anus is wrecked so Lex Steele isnt that big of a deal afterall!"
 
2022-01-17 12:58:55 AM  
9 votes:

Sin'sHero: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

Anthrax?


Nope. He got all better. Turns out rabies is fake news too.
 
2022-01-16 11:52:00 PM  
8 votes:

Walker: [Fark user image 850x850]


I thought I scrolled through the whole thread before posting it :(
 
2022-01-16 10:31:28 PM  
7 votes:

WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?


Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a sharp guy who is very good at analyzing data and trends, and using that to cherry pick worst case scenarios. So, things are worse than we thought, but not as bad as he predicts.

Hope that helps.
 
2022-01-16 10:55:44 PM  
7 votes:
I need  real numbers  ages of deaths and  other health problems otherwise click bait.
 
2022-01-16 10:47:08 PM  
6 votes:

Telephone Sanitizer Second Class: WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a sharp guy who is very good at analyzing data and trends, and using that to cherry pick worst case scenarios. So, things are worse than we thought, but not as bad as he predicts.

Hope that helps.


Dr Eric is a disaster porn shiatposter. Like a high-tech chicken little finding the sky-fallingest sky.
 
2022-01-16 11:03:04 PM  
5 votes:
You FOOLS!

This is a simulation.  We are really in pods.  The Matrix is real!

WAKE UP!
 
2022-01-16 11:03:08 PM  
5 votes:
Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.
 
2022-01-16 11:04:55 PM  
5 votes:
That's great an all, but Twitter is not a journal paper. Get some data together, analyze it thoroughly, get it peer reviewed, have it published, then come back to me with the results.
 
2022-01-16 11:27:47 PM  
5 votes:
More fear porn by a twitter asshole.  This guy is a farking tool.
 
2022-01-16 11:34:40 PM  
5 votes:

JustToLetYouKnowFriend: Jeebus Saves: More fear porn by a twitter asshole.  This guy is a farking tool.

[Fark user image 200x200]


How many times has the douche bag actually been right about anything?  He sells the worst case scenario as some kind of truth.  He peddles misinformation.  And for some reason, the mods here keep greening links to his bullshiat.
 
2022-01-17 12:54:32 AM  
5 votes:

Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.


/Predicted MAGA-folk thought process:  Yum, free coon meat!
 
2022-01-16 10:27:16 PM  
4 votes:

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


God is playing Pandemic 2.
 
2022-01-16 10:56:17 PM  
4 votes:

Telephone Sanitizer Second Class: WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a sharp guy who is very good at analyzing data and trends, and using that to cherry pick worst case scenarios. So, things are worse than we thought, but not as bad as he predicts.

Hope that helps.


No, he does not cherry pick worst-case scenarios. He has been quite accurate. You have been wrong a lot, though, deliberately underplaying threats from Covid; and, when you are obviously wrong 2 or 3 months later, (obvious beyond just reading incoming data and analysis), you don't offer any mea culpa.

He isn't predicting anything in the Twitter thread, though. He is showing what we know now.

And he is pointing out that it makes sense only if Omicron is causing the SA deaths and the Long Covid in UK kids.

He is not cherry piocmking to make any predictions.
 
2022-01-16 11:14:04 PM  
4 votes:
I don't understand. All of my wingnut coworkers assure me that Covid-19 is over
 
2022-01-16 11:16:24 PM  
4 votes:
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-16 11:27:37 PM  
4 votes:

SurfaceTension: Another (obscure) board I post at had a poster who's cousin just died from covid. He was hospitalized, then sent home, then went back into the hospital, before dying. A several week process.


There's a rediculus amount of morality after Covid that is not included among the official rolls.  Insurers are starting to gripe as deaths are at least 40% more frequent, even in 18 year olds.
 
2022-01-16 11:41:44 PM  
4 votes:

SurfaceTension: Another (obscure) board I post at had a poster who's cousin just died from covid. He was hospitalized, then sent home, then went back into the hospital, before dying. A several week process.


i.imgflip.comView Full Size
 
2022-01-17 12:41:52 AM  
4 votes:

Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.


Anthrax?
 
2022-01-17 1:06:43 AM  
4 votes:

Shakin_Haitian: Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.


The bat contracted terminal stupidity, decided birds aren't real, and flew straight into a hawk's mouth to prove it didn't exist?
 
2022-01-17 1:34:29 AM  
4 votes:

backhand.slap.of.reason: There's a ridiculous amount of morality after Covid


This is the best news I've read all week.
 
2022-01-17 7:12:49 AM  
4 votes:

parrellel: Shakin_Haitian: NearCanuck: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?

Don't exaggerate. Rabies is like the flu. It has a 99.99997% mortality rate. I think a woman in Minnesota "survived" rabies without a vaccination.

The girl only had to be frozen and have her blood replaced by antivirals for a week or two, when they thawed her out she was Right As Rain.

What do you mean there's only been one survivor?


https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/jeanna-giese-rabies-survivor/

/ iT wAs ThE vItAmInS tHeY gAvE her, StUdY iT oUt
 
2022-01-16 10:40:30 PM  
3 votes:

greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.


Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.
 
2022-01-16 10:53:07 PM  
3 votes:

greentea1985: Nidiot: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

So it's mild except for those people for whom it is not mild. How nice.

How about we knock it off with the propaganda designed to get people to go back to work. The 'it's mild' mantra does not help to get the borderline sociopaths to wear a mask.

That is unfortunately the whole issue with Covid in general, which is why you can have jackasses who act like it is no big deal. It's more akin to the measles: highly infectious, not that bad for most patients, but deadly for just enough of them to cause severe problems.


Correct. It was the same with all the variants. They can all range from infections with no symptoms all the way to terrible symptoms and eventual death, but we weren't being fed this 'it's mild' line until Omicron. Unfortunately, Omicron happened to show up at the same time that governments everywhere decided they'd had enough of supporting society and wanted us all to shut up and get back to work. Hence all we hear now is this 'it's mild' bullshiat. It's pure propaganda.

Omicron is not a 'mild' COVID-19 variant, warns WHO and epidemiologists https://www.sbs.com.au/news/omicron-is-not-a-mild-covid-19-variant-warns-who-and-epidemiologists/c3361689-dcfa-4500-a76b-730f91227453
 
2022-01-16 11:04:51 PM  
3 votes:
You just can't eplxain that.
 
2022-01-16 11:12:25 PM  
3 votes:

12349876: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

Are those graphs wrong?  Is he lying about an uptick in deaths in South Africa despite cases going down?


Well. Thing is. Lots of people are likely to die in SA due to lots of things. It's.....a tough place not in a pandemic.
 
2022-01-16 11:58:23 PM  
3 votes:

Jeebus Saves: JustToLetYouKnowFriend: Jeebus Saves: More fear porn by a twitter asshole.  This guy is a farking tool.

[Fark user image 200x200]

How many times has the douche bag actually been right about anything?  He sells the worst case scenario as some kind of truth.  He peddles misinformation.  And for some reason, the mods here keep greening links to his bullshiat.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-17 12:24:30 AM  
3 votes:

mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?


He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?
 
2022-01-17 1:07:17 AM  
3 votes:

NearCanuck: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?


Don't exaggerate. Rabies is like the flu. It has a 99.99997% mortality rate. I think a woman in Minnesota "survived" rabies without a vaccination.
 
2022-01-16 8:24:29 PM  
2 votes:
It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.
 
2022-01-16 11:00:00 PM  
2 votes:
I know "30% excess deaths" seems scary - and it should - but wasn't the original wave of the pandemic something like "100% excess deaths"?

IANAEpidemiologist nor a statistician, but that is the way I remember it.
 
2022-01-16 11:00:31 PM  
2 votes:

Bennie Crabtree: tinfoil-hat maggie: I need  real numbers  ages of deaths and  other health problems otherwise click bait.

It's all in there, buddy. It's right there.


I must have missed it friend, in that Twitter post
 
2022-01-16 11:07:15 PM  
2 votes:

cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.


Here's the data I used. https://www.biospace.com/article/real-world-uk-data-suggests-omicron-less-severe-than-delta/ I do not disagree with you that Omicron isn't mild. I personally want more data because every report is comparing Omicron to Delta, but Delta is suspected to cause more severe cases in unvaccinated patients than earlier strains. The line about Omicron being more mild is misleading at best. The most positive take is that it is milder on a case-by-case basis but still capable of causing severe illness in some patients. This means that you still need some of the basic preventative measures, like masking, vaccination, and social distancing. Unfortunately, a lot of those measures are being dropped for political reasons.
 
2022-01-16 11:21:41 PM  
2 votes:

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


Let's pretend that's a serious question, because some Farkers actually believe that.

A) Trumpers aren't the only ones refusing to get vaccinated or wear masks. They're just the loudest and most obnoxious about it. Not all anti-vaxxers announce themselves.

B) Even if Trumpers were the only ones refusing to take precautions, Omicron doesn't run on karma. It can still infect the vaccinated, the most commonly used masks reduce your chances of spreading it but don't offer much defense against catching it, and its impact varies from person to person. The hate-spewing Karen with the phony medical excuse and a browser history loaded with moronic conspiracy theory bullshiat could potentially catch Covid two or three times and have no ill effects, and unfairly pass it on to someone else who had shots and boosters and always wore a mask. Viruses don't care about politics or ideologies, just opportunities. (That's not to say the unvaccinated aren't more at risk than the vaccinated. They definitely are. But while they're taking the much bigger gamble with their health, only some of them will lose. Not all of them.)

C) Everyone can't just stay home, because for many, if they stop going to work they'll quickly find themselves without a home. There's a vast array of service and labor jobs that can't be done remotely, and it's unlikely we'll hear any serious talk of more stimulus checks this year.

In short, no one is 100% safe, and getting all excited over Covid death toll numbers is both uneducated and warped. Don't be a ghoul.
 
2022-01-16 11:22:55 PM  
2 votes:

Por que tan serioso: Well. Thing is. Lots of people are likely to die in SA due to lots of things. It's.....a tough place not in a pandemic.


It's about a huge increase in unexpected deaths.

A lot more people are dying; their deaths are not being attributed to COVID, but that is likely a reporting problem.
 
2022-01-16 11:31:49 PM  
2 votes:

greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.


I think that has more to do with vaccines than the variants. More people are vaccinated now than ever, plus with the booster. They are not the ones going into the hospitals and dying. All the unvaccinated are getting hit just as hard as all the previous variants.
 
2022-01-16 11:36:13 PM  
2 votes:
My oldest sister is quarantining with Covid right now. She had the two shot vaccine plus a booster shot. She wears a mask, but works in a hospital/prisoin/mental health institute. Prior to contracting Covid, she contracted pnuemonia. Her doctor speculates that the pnuemonia lowered her immune system making her vulnerable to Covid despite the 3 vaccince shots. She has gotten slightly worse each week  for three weeks. She can't smell anything. She is irritated because her doctor refuses to give her a steroid to help her breathe citing the possible side effects. She asked "What about the side effects of suffocating because I can't breathe?"
 
2022-01-16 11:37:48 PM  
2 votes:

demonfaerie: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

I think that has more to do with vaccines than the variants. More people are vaccinated now than ever, plus with the booster. They are not the ones going into the hospitals and dying. All the unvaccinated are getting hit just as hard as all the previous variants.


I agree. If you are vaxxed and boosted, your case is mild. I had both my fully vaxxed 6-year-old and unvaxxed 4-year-old catch Covid in the past two weeks. The 6-year-old caught it at school and brought it home, where the 4-year-old caught it. The 6-year-old never got worse than a runny nose. The 4-year-old was a bit worse, with a fever and a lot more lethargy. Both technically had mild cases, but it was noticeably worse for my child who can't get vaxxed yet. It also fits with what I am hearing, that most of the hospitalized and dying patients are unvaxxed.
 
2022-01-16 11:50:16 PM  
2 votes:
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-17 12:11:00 AM  
2 votes:

aungen: You FOOLS!

This is a simulation.  We are really in pods.  The Matrix is real!

WAKE UP!


It's almost like you don't even realize what the simulation even is.   Have you ever BEEN in the real world?   It's awful.
 
2022-01-17 12:39:47 AM  
2 votes:

Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.


Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.
 
2022-01-17 1:10:20 AM  
2 votes:

parrellel: neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?

Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.


What we have is enough. The "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD Thermonuclear Pandemic" (to quote the doc) early in the pandemic based on incomplete data is exactly what a scientist should NOT be doing.
 
2022-01-17 1:18:48 AM  
2 votes:

SUMMERSN0WS: May you be judged your entire life on that one thing you did wrong way back when.


He kinda is. Without going into detail, let's just say they don't call him neaorin the bridge-builder.
 
2022-01-16 8:27:49 PM  
1 vote:
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-16 8:28:31 PM  
1 vote:

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


Bears repeating
 
2022-01-16 8:38:14 PM  
1 vote:
My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.
 
2022-01-16 9:08:09 PM  
1 vote:

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.
 
2022-01-16 9:48:03 PM  
1 vote:

greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.


So it's mild except for those people for whom it is not mild. How nice.

How about we knock it off with the propaganda designed to get people to go back to work. The 'it's mild' mantra does not help to get the borderline sociopaths to wear a mask.
 
2022-01-16 10:25:01 PM  
1 vote:
Oh do people still care about the pandemic
What with the record number of infections
Or whatever
I mean really
Still
 
2022-01-16 10:34:03 PM  
1 vote:
So, basically, he is saying we are Royally Farked.
 
2022-01-16 10:34:17 PM  
1 vote:

sno man: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

[Fark user image 720x900]
why do you hate capitalism, citizen?


The disturbing thing is I can't tell if that's not an actual slide or something from a Powerpoint presentation a conservative think tank was showing in private...
 
2022-01-16 10:45:09 PM  
1 vote:

fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.


Covid : Challenge accepted ..
 
2022-01-16 10:48:55 PM  
1 vote:
Meanwhile, in the UK:

COVID-19 positive self-isolation laws could be scrapped in the UK in move to get 'back to normal as soon as we can'.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to scrap coronavirus legal requirements including self isolation rules in a major turning point towards "learning to live with COVID-19".


https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-kingdom/covid19-positive-selfisolation-laws-could-be-scrapped-in-the-uk-in-move-to-get-back-to-normal-as-soon-as-we-can/news-story/2e2e1e4791a50967bab3dc68f710913f?fbclid=IwAR3Dv4kuxDFQ14clB3EunognbQRxmcJfuOuFmU_GdYT6SDftQY6JS88TfiI
 
2022-01-16 10:50:18 PM  
1 vote:

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


It still affects the vaccinated? My kid < 12 double vaccinated is infected and also not a Drumph supporter. Hopefully she will be okay, but still she shouldn't have to be sick with it to begin with if those jackholes had justs grown up and participated in society.
 
2022-01-16 10:58:26 PM  
1 vote:

Telephone Sanitizer Second Class: WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a sharp guy who is very good at analyzing data and trends, and using that to cherry pick worst case scenarios. So, things are worse than we thought, but not as bad as he predicts.

Hope that helps.


Nouriel Roubini : 2007-8 Financial Crisis  :: Eric Feigl-Ding : COVID-19 pandemic
 
2022-01-16 11:03:21 PM  
1 vote:

WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?  Is there a lag in reporting deaths?  Are they blaming the deaths on the hospital burden? Or are these deaths post covid infection by a secondary cause brought on from covid?


Not a lag in reporting deaths. He is repeating what the data shows in the primary courses: the lag is that Omicron doen't kill many people in the first 21 days like other variants, but it seems in South Africa to be killing people later, like in week 4-6. Unless there is something else to account for those deaths. The alternative is really hard to explain though. There isn't a source of a Daylight Saving Time effect, or whatever the alternative would be.

There might be a counterargument that it is hospital burdens. He cautions against drawing that conclusion because so many jurisdictions, even in South Africa, have stopped collecting and/or reporting data.

That leads to the childhood Long Covid problem. There are way more kid with Long Covid right now than the recorded number of childhood infections should cause. So that means that the childhood infections are going unrecorded.

Back to South Africa, it means that by not recording or reporting Covid infections, we have the dilemma of an obvious cause of the deaths (Omicron) but from lack of reporting, we have a scapegoat (hopital burden). But previously in the pandemic, the hospital burden and all the other variants did not kill this many people. Hence he concludes, it is Omicron.

I think I've taken more word to explain it than he did. Really, you should just click on the Twitter thread.
 
2022-01-16 11:04:23 PM  
1 vote:

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


It's mild for the vaccinated
 
2022-01-16 11:05:49 PM  
1 vote:

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


I think omicron is infecting everyone.
Fauci pretty much said it.

The difference is it's severity which seems determined by several factors.
Vaxxed or not
Age/comorbidities
Speed/availability of treatment

The downside is as long as it's circulating widely even mild cases leave the door open for re-infection and mutations.

We really don't have enough of a handle on this to write it off as "well, I'm vaxxed, screw the rest", especially if protection from the vax "wears off" over time.
 
2022-01-16 11:09:01 PM  
1 vote:

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-16 11:18:45 PM  
1 vote:

Bennie Crabtree: Telephone Sanitizer Second Class: WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?hi

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a sharp guy who is very good at analyzing data and trends, and using that to cherry pick worst case scenarios. So, things are worse than we thought, but not as bad as he predicts.

Hope that helps.

No, he does not cherry pick worst-case scenarios. He has been quite accurate. You have been wrong a lot, though, deliberately underplaying threats from Covid; and, when you are obviously wrong 2 or 3 months later, (obvious beyond just reading incoming data and analysis), you don't offer any mea culpa.


Excuse me, what? I've never downplayed covid and have nothing to apologise for. I've been wearing an N95 since March 2020 and got my booster in November. Either you are confusing me with someone else or you've got some serious issues. Get bent.
 
2022-01-16 11:28:17 PM  
1 vote:
Yeah, say there was suddenly a massive bout of gang violence in South Africa, or Ebola, or I dunno, a plane crashed into a kindergarten.  That'd get in the news.

If these people are just keeling over from heart attacks or strokes 6-8 weeks on, well, that's farking scary.  If it's
people whose lungs were et but then just got sent home to suffocate by themselves, also scary.

30% Excess deaths is nothing to sneeze at.
 
2022-01-16 11:33:18 PM  
1 vote:

Lady J: do I have to click to Twitter to see the thing about uk paediatrics?

tripled from ? to ?
I mean obviously any is a concern, but there's a lot of noise round small numbers.

pbs.twimg.comView Full Size


https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1479115498600099842
 
2022-01-16 11:38:50 PM  
1 vote:

Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.


Lol that year old article downplaying the threat of covid did not age well.
 
2022-01-16 11:41:34 PM  
1 vote:

cretinbob: The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness


I think lots of people had delta when the assumption is they had omicron. That was based on sequencing mutations ratios as of about 2 weeks ago (from nextstrain.org).  I don't think omicron took off in most countries as fast as people generally assumed so there is a huge mix of the two.  If you have had covid before, the next one is usually milder but like everything, there are exceptions.  When covid does lots of damage, one of the ways it does that is causing the body to damage itself and I expect that may be why some people have the 2nd case worse.

This new info may show that people aren't getting the respiratory part bad enough to get treatment and maybe the blood problems are killing them.  With the original strain, people would show up in the ER unable to breath, be treated for that and then find out they were developing complications like diabetes which would also be treated.  Now it looks like people are getting at most "a mild flu", self treating, developing complications which also go untreated and then having long term effects.  If that is the case, omicron isn't the magic safe covid many have been looking for.
 
2022-01-16 11:55:59 PM  
1 vote:

Nadie_AZ: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

Its like a cold war here. No one says nothing to anyone


Just sing this, to the tune of Daisy (or Sailing):

Plague Rats, Plague Rats,
Over the Bounding Main,
I see Plague Rats
Over and over again.
They don't wear their masks when walking,
And cough on you when talking,
They go where they want,
And do what they want,
And they don't give a fark about youuuuuu.

Once they hear it, every time they hear the tune you will have free rent in their brain.
 
2022-01-17 12:00:20 AM  
1 vote:

Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.


Funny, that article goes on to mention That Feigi-Ding himself realizes he took an alarmist tone with his initial first tweet and he regrets it, hes greatly toned down his tweets to reflect facts, not his opinions. It even mentions that on one of his tweets he realized he made a mistake and deleted it and corrected it. Sounds like a pretty responsible highly educated man, not some deviant spreader of misinformation. He freaked out at first, like we all did, and now he is just trying to inform the public in a palatable way. He clearly takes responsibility and admits when hes wrong, which it better than like 99% of the rest of us. The article does a great job of mixing in anecdotes like "a lot of people were posting grainy photos coming out of china" but Feigi-Ding wasnt one of those "a lot of people". Mixing in that anecdotal commentary thrughout the article certainly muddles the actual facts. That article is is just adding to the misinfo out there, not rectifying anything
 
2022-01-17 12:03:31 AM  
1 vote:

Unsung_Hero: I know "30% excess deaths" seems scary - and it should - but wasn't the original wave of the pandemic something like "100% excess deaths"?

IANAEpidemiologist nor a statistician, but that is the way I remember it.


Are you talking about before we had widespread testing ability?
 
2022-01-17 12:18:44 AM  
1 vote:

Enigmamf: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

Wait, so you're calling him 'alarmist' for being one of the first to bring to people's attention how bad the COVID pandemic would be?

'Prescient' seems like a more apt adjective.


You should see how the climate scientists are treated. What's even funnier is generally the "alarmist propaganda" are actually very conservative estimates which are turning out to be underestimates.
 
2022-01-17 12:26:29 AM  
1 vote:

cretinbob: So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.


Maybe you got that H5N6 Bird Flu just reported in China. They said 5 cases, so..... it's probably worldwide at this point.

What, you think China would fight a novel bug all by themselves? Oh, no, friends. If they take a hit, *everyone* takes a hit.

A second pandemic on top of COVID? I hate to think about it. Would be worse than the Spanish Flu, given how people are burned out now. No masking, no isolation, more healthcare workers burnt out and quitting.
 
2022-01-17 12:35:20 AM  
1 vote:

greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.


To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.
 
2022-01-17 12:38:53 AM  
1 vote:
Face it, you're getting infected with Omicron. Portugal is almost 86 percent vaccinated and their mask compliance is around par for Europe, and they're getting 40k new cases daily on a population half the size of NY state's. The rest of (vaccinated) Europe isn't doing a whole lot better.

Get your booster, and hope for the best.
 
2022-01-17 1:01:50 AM  
1 vote:

vilesithknight: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

Funny, that article goes on to mention That Feigi-Ding himself realizes he took an alarmist tone with his initial first tweet and he regrets it, hes greatly toned down his tweets to reflect facts, not his opinions. It even mentions that on one of his tweets he realized he made a mistake and deleted it and corrected it. Sounds like a pretty responsible highly educated man, not some deviant spreader of misinformation. He freaked out at first, like we all did, and now he is just trying to inform the public in a palatable way. He clearly takes responsibility and admits when hes wrong, which it better than like 99% of the rest of us. The article does a great job of mixing in anecdotes like "a lot of people were posting grainy photos coming out of china" but Feigi-Ding wasnt one of those "a lot of people". Mixing in that anecdotal commentary thrughout the article certainly muddles the actual facts. That article is is just adding to the misinfo out there, not rectifying anything


You know, that's a fair point. I've been dismissive of his comments for two years, but upon reflection, that may be outdated and unfair.
 
2022-01-17 1:28:12 AM  
1 vote:

parrellel: Shakin_Haitian: NearCanuck: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?

Don't exaggerate. Rabies is like the flu. It has a 99.99997% mortality rate. I think a woman in Minnesota "survived" rabies without a vaccination.

The girl only had to be frozen and have her blood replaced by antivirals for a week or two, when they thawed her out she was Right As Rain.

What do you mean there's only been one survivor?


That sounds like the plot of a movie I would watch.  Although, I'm sure strange things would start happening when she got home.

SHOUT TV probably has the distribution rights.
 
2022-01-17 1:48:12 AM  
1 vote:

Shakin_Haitian: austerity101: IgG4: We have been doing this for two years. Mask up and get vaxxed. It isn't that hard

I'm doing that. I've always done that. So why can't I pay my rent? Why are people who have done what the government has been telling them doing so badly? And why are we okay with this?

Because, by god, people who don't deserve it (i.e. not me) might get an unearned benefit of some kind, therefore everything must be as shiatty as possible.


Like, I will stay home. I will literally stay in my house as long as anyone needs me to, cut off from the entire world, as long as I also don't have to figure out how to pay my bills. But the f*cking government is making us do both! How are we supposed to isolate and distance and "stay safe" when we have to not do those things to earn the privilege to not be f*cking homeless? This is f*cking insane.

This feels worse than a year ago. At least then I was getting unemployment help. Now here I am, three shots later, feeling even more trapped, and getting zero help from the government. This is literally worse.
 
2022-01-17 2:28:58 AM  
1 vote:

SUMMERSN0WS: neaorin: parrellel: neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?

Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.

What we have is enough. The "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD Thermonuclear Pandemic" (to quote the doc) early in the pandemic based on incomplete data is exactly what a scientist should NOT be doing.

May you be judged your entire life on that one thing you did wrong way back when.


I'm not judging his entire life but I also won't be looking to him for pandemic advice. Not when there's enough decent sources around.
 
2022-01-17 10:59:06 AM  
1 vote:

parrellel: For those wondering it seems between 5 and 13 people treated with the Milwaukee protocol (freeze the fark out of you and fill you with antivirals) have Not Died of Rabies.  Information's a bit shiat.

I hadn't heard of any successes beyond that first before today.  So cool?


Very, very cool, apparently.
 
2022-01-17 6:21:51 PM  
1 vote:
Holy shiat, the people in this thread who think they are reasonable, but clearly don't bother looking for data or epidemiologist's skillsets in reading it.

Like the people saying they want proper sources, not Twitter. Each of the tweets links direftly to valid sources.

Like the people who are saying they don't trust his claims without seeing the numbers. Almost every tweet links to a source and show one of the data graphics from that source. The numbers are visible to you in each tweet.

The people who say he exaggerates for attention. He is showing you the numbers, their sources, and he doe not deviate from what his sources say, unless he is saying, (I am paraphrasing), "But look at these other results from other places, which means that over time it could be [omething worse that requires different responses]."

This thread has a lot of low-literacy dysfunction.

And, as submitter (note the mods keeping my idiosyncratic tyipng mistrakes int he headline b/c the Mods love spleling mistales and I hate correcting them), I really have clicked and checked on what Eric Feigl-Ding's sources say. I'm not the only person to submit his links, but I submit them because he is accurate, he does not change what his sources say, he rebuts claims in his sources with data from other sources, he explains the methodological reasons he prefers one to another, and he has proven reliable when he says that governments or media are carrying out inadequate responses.
 
2022-01-17 9:41:47 PM  
1 vote:

Bennie Crabtree: Holy shiat, the people in this thread who think they are reasonable, but clearly don't bother looking for data or epidemiologist's skillsets in reading it.

Like the people saying they want proper sources, not Twitter. Each of the tweets links direftly to valid sources.

Like the people who are saying they don't trust his claims without seeing the numbers. Almost every tweet links to a source and show one of the data graphics from that source. The numbers are visible to you in each tweet.

The people who say he exaggerates for attention. He is showing you the numbers, their sources, and he doe not deviate from what his sources say, unless he is saying, (I am paraphrasing), "But look at these other results from other places, which means that over time it could be [omething worse that requires different responses]."

This thread has a lot of low-literacy dysfunction.

And, as submitter (note the mods keeping my idiosyncratic tyipng mistrakes int he headline b/c the Mods love spleling mistales and I hate correcting them), I really have clicked and checked on what Eric Feigl-Ding's sources say. I'm not the only person to submit his links, but I submit them because he is accurate, he does not change what his sources say, he rebuts claims in his sources with data from other sources, he explains the methodological reasons he prefers one to another, and he has proven reliable when he says that governments or media are carrying out inadequate responses.


Oh yeah? Then why does my neighbor's friend's hairdresser say there's just something shady about the guy? People don't just post things like that on Facebook unless they feel strongly enough to put up a post on Facebook!
 
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