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(Twitter)   Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding lives up to his name, rings a bell to bring attention to two uneplxained problems. 1) the 30% excess deaths in South Africa. 2) the TRIPLED number of children under 12 with Long Covid in the UK. Ding ding ding   (twitter.com) divider line
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3659 clicks; posted to Main » and Politics » on 16 Jan 2022 at 10:20 PM (24 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2022-01-16 11:59:36 PM  

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


The downside is that these are the type of people who get sick, don't give a fark, and still walk the fark around, usually maskless, because they can't see the ramifications of their actions beyond themselves, and will probably spread this, yes, to other unvaxxed Trump supporters, but also to, yes, vaxxed common sense people who did everything they could to stay healthy, but still crossed paths with this unvaxxed downside asshat, which may infect them, ergo, possibly infect additional people, who may, or may not have a simple case of a mild flu like illness or possibly, a complication laden life threatening, maybe even fatal or lifetime long illness.
 
2022-01-16 11:59:43 PM  

EdgeRunner: AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?

Let's pretend that's a serious question, because some Farkers actually believe that.

A) Trumpers aren't the only ones refusing to get vaccinated or wear masks. They're just the loudest and most obnoxious about it. Not all anti-vaxxers announce themselves.

B) Even if Trumpers were the only ones refusing to take precautions, Omicron doesn't run on karma. It can still infect the vaccinated, the most commonly used masks reduce your chances of spreading it but don't offer much defense against catching it, and its impact varies from person to person. The hate-spewing Karen with the phony medical excuse and a browser history loaded with moronic conspiracy theory bullshiat could potentially catch Covid two or three times and have no ill effects, and unfairly pass it on to someone else who had shots and boosters and always wore a mask. Viruses don't care about politics or ideologies, just opportunities. (That's not to say the unvaccinated aren't more at risk than the vaccinated. They definitely are. But while they're taking the much bigger gamble with their health, only some of them will lose. Not all of them.)

C) Everyone can't just stay home, because for many, if they stop going to work they'll quickly find themselves without a home. There's a vast array of service and labor jobs that can't be done remotely, and it's unlikely we'll hear any serious talk of more stimulus checks this year.

In short, no one is 100% safe, and getting all excited over Covid death toll numbers is both uneducated and warped. Don't be a ghoul.


You are so incredibly correct. During Christmas break I honestly did not want to get together with my family because they are all nut jobs who think COVID is a cold. My wife, myself, and my youngest brother and his wife are the only family members to get vaccinated. I've been trying to get my wife on board to vaccinate our 3 children but she is resistant (caught up in all the fear and misinformation out there).

The day after Christmas (and our get together) my niece ended up getting COVID who is 8 months pregnant. (oh, she's 17 btw) And she farking knowingly came to the "party" having been around her baby daddy who tested positive days before. No one knew about it until later we found she had been talking to her cousin there and said, "Can I get COVID if my baby Daddy has it?"  O...M....G

ALL of us got sick.  ALL.  All farking 23 of us including all the children. The real kicker is the aftermath where only half actually went to get tested (all came back positive) but those who refused said they just had a cold... EVEN AFTER TELLING THEM THE POSITIVE farkING RESULTS!  How the fark do you even deal with dumbasses like that?!

It also didn't help that the 4 of us who did get vaccinated ended up the worse off. No idea why but the 4 of us were sick as fark whereas the rest of them (minus a brother-in-law) had mild symptoms for a couple days. I'm thankfully none of my children got super sick (only for a day or 2) but I can't tell you how farking pissed off I was. fark it, I still am if you can't already tell. At this point if it farking kills them I don't know that'd I give a shiat anymore. You knowingly brought that shiat in and one of my children could have paid the price.  This shiat is batshiat insane.

fark!!!!
 
2022-01-17 12:00:06 AM  

cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.


I and both of my kids tested positive using a rapid antigen test. The pharmacist said mine and my son's lit up like a Christmas tree. My wife tested negative several times yet has had the worst symptoms and has been actively sick the longest. All of us tested negative with a PCR test, which I thought was really odd.
 
2022-01-17 12:00:20 AM  

Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.


Funny, that article goes on to mention That Feigi-Ding himself realizes he took an alarmist tone with his initial first tweet and he regrets it, hes greatly toned down his tweets to reflect facts, not his opinions. It even mentions that on one of his tweets he realized he made a mistake and deleted it and corrected it. Sounds like a pretty responsible highly educated man, not some deviant spreader of misinformation. He freaked out at first, like we all did, and now he is just trying to inform the public in a palatable way. He clearly takes responsibility and admits when hes wrong, which it better than like 99% of the rest of us. The article does a great job of mixing in anecdotes like "a lot of people were posting grainy photos coming out of china" but Feigi-Ding wasnt one of those "a lot of people". Mixing in that anecdotal commentary thrughout the article certainly muddles the actual facts. That article is is just adding to the misinfo out there, not rectifying anything
 
2022-01-17 12:00:33 AM  

Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.


Quotes from the article:
--------------------------
How to Misinform Yourself About the Coronavirus
By Alexis C. Madrigal
January 28, 2020

A few minutes before 11 p.m. on January 20, Eric Feigl-Ding was pretty much just another guy on the internet.

"HOLY MOTHER OF GOD-the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!!" Feigl-Ding's tweet read. "How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad-never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I'm not exaggerating." During the next five minutes, Feigl-Ding put together a thread on Twitter, mostly quoting the paper itself, that declared we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen."

Yet there were issues with Feigl-Ding's analysis, even if they were not immediately apparent to the people simply scrolling through Twitter. The thread exemplified a deep problem on Twitter: The most extreme statements can be far more amplified than more measured messages.

This was the ecosystem in which Feigl-Ding's thread landed. No wonder it took off. Unfortunately, there were some mistakes. [list of mistakes]

Feigl-Ding's tweets seem to approach the line of what professional ethics would permit public-health authorities to say. He certainly wasn't endorsing full-on conspiracy theories about bioweapons and zombies, as some people have suggested during the coronavirus outbreak. But he also was far from the calm, slow-down-there stance of the majority of other officials. And, of course, that's what made his message so irresistible.

One user in particular, @howroute, has had tremendously viral tweets about the terrible danger the world faces. These have drawn more likes and retweets than anything from Feigl-Ding or Jabr.
--------------------------

Holmes was right. Note the date of the article. Author trying to be cool and level headed, but seemingly underplaying the conflagration covid would become.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-17 12:01:16 AM  

duenor: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

I am a school district administrator. I was astounded that on Thursday - as in two days ago - I had to order two district employed electricians off of campus because they refused to wear masks. this in spite of district policy that everyone must be masked, that employees are not allowed to wear cloth masks, and at an elementary school where every day they've had to send home nearly a dozen kids because they are either testing positive or are presumed positive. They also skipped contact covid pass entry protocols..

I wanted to say, "where the fark have you two been the last two years? What makes you think the rules don't apply to you?"

I'm still thinking about having them formally reprimanded. SMH


media.giphy.comView Full Size
 
2022-01-17 12:01:44 AM  
I hope the next pandemic come with horrible, scarring, puss filled boils, that, while not completely fatal, makes you wish you were dead for the rest of your life.
 
2022-01-17 12:01:55 AM  

Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.


You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?
 
2022-01-17 12:02:10 AM  

GardenWeasel: cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.

Omicron does not appear to primarily take hold in the nose, but in the throat, which is why the tests are missing it and people are "hacking" the tests for throat swabs.


Still not mild
 
2022-01-17 12:03:31 AM  

Unsung_Hero: I know "30% excess deaths" seems scary - and it should - but wasn't the original wave of the pandemic something like "100% excess deaths"?

IANAEpidemiologist nor a statistician, but that is the way I remember it.


Are you talking about before we had widespread testing ability?
 
2022-01-17 12:06:39 AM  

parasol: AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?

I think omicron is infecting everyone.
Fauci pretty much said it.

The difference is it's severity which seems determined by several factors.
Vaxxed or not
Age/comorbidities
Speed/availability of treatment

The downside is as long as it's circulating widely even mild cases leave the door open for re-infection and mutations.

We really don't have enough of a handle on this to write it off as "well, I'm vaxxed, screw the rest", especially if protection from the vax "wears off" over time.


That's the fun thing. Immunity wanes. Period. That means even if you get "natural" immunity, it still wanes.

Get your farking boosters folks. Get the flu shot at the same time and get it over with.
 
2022-01-17 12:11:00 AM  

aungen: You FOOLS!

This is a simulation.  We are really in pods.  The Matrix is real!

WAKE UP!


It's almost like you don't even realize what the simulation even is.   Have you ever BEEN in the real world?   It's awful.
 
2022-01-17 12:11:36 AM  

Mock26: "It's no worse than the flu."

Yeah, about that. In two years COVID has killed more people than the seasonal flu has killed in the past 20 years.


WITH masks, shutdowns, millions of gallons of hand sanitizer, travel restrictions, outdoor dining and a single vaccine that for the most part covers all variants to some extent.

Without that the number would have been significantly higher
 
2022-01-17 12:13:26 AM  

Fonaibung: 12349876: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

Are those graphs wrong?  Is he lying about an uptick in deaths in South Africa despite cases going down?

I don't know, but after reading that article back in the day, I stopped looking to him for advice. It's not my responsibility to look at what he posts and figure out what the flaw is.

I prefer to listen to Monica Gandhi, btw.

That's being said, I agree it's not mild (never seen any compelling proof that it is). Wear a mask.


That article was written in January 2020, and from at least the first few paragraphs, the author is upset that he is worried that the coronavirus would develop into a worldwide pandemic? Thank god he was wrong and it turned out to be nothing.
 
2022-01-17 12:15:06 AM  

demonfaerie: greentea1985: demonfaerie: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

I think that has more to do with vaccines than the variants. More people are vaccinated now than ever, plus with the booster. They are not the ones going into the hospitals and dying. All the unvaccinated are getting hit just as hard as all the previous variants.

I agree. If you are vaxxed and boosted, your case is mild. I had both my fully vaxxed 6-year-old and unvaxxed 4-year-old catch Covid in the past two weeks. The 6-year-old caught it at school and brought it home, where the 4-year-old caught it. The 6-year-old never got worse than a runny nose. The 4-year-old was a bit worse, with a fever and a lot more lethargy. Both technically had mild cases, but it was noticeably worse for my child who can't get vaxxed yet. It also fits with what I am hearing, that most of the hospitalized and dying patients are unvaxxed.

I am just wondering if people who are even vaccinated are going to end up as long haulers. I haven't head any data on that.


Probably but at a lesser rate.

Yay?
 
2022-01-17 12:15:38 AM  

jjwars1: IgG4: We have been doing this for two years. Mask up and get vaxxed. It isn't that hard

It is for my child. She needs her second shot, but they've been out of stock for two weeks.


where are you going that is out of stock?  Every single Walmart Pharmacy in my city has Pediatric Pfizer covid-19 vaccines in stock and vaccinates for ages 5 and up.  Assuming you are in the USA that is.
 
2022-01-17 12:16:11 AM  

cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.


Same here.  Jj vax with booster, wife and kids got better vax and boosted.  New years ever covid ripped through us.  1 kid better in a few days.  1 kid just stopped coughing 2 days ago, wife better a week ago and I'm ALMOST better.  Cough is bad, ears clogged but I have my strength back.
9 negative at home tests, 4 negative pcr, 4 negative flu.

It's not mild although technically none of us had covid
 
2022-01-17 12:18:44 AM  

Enigmamf: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

Wait, so you're calling him 'alarmist' for being one of the first to bring to people's attention how bad the COVID pandemic would be?

'Prescient' seems like a more apt adjective.


You should see how the climate scientists are treated. What's even funnier is generally the "alarmist propaganda" are actually very conservative estimates which are turning out to be underestimates.
 
2022-01-17 12:20:17 AM  

fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.


greentea1985: That is unfortunately the whole issue with Covid in general, which is why you can have jackasses who act like it is no big deal. It's more akin to the measles: highly infectious, not that bad for most patients, but deadly for just enough of them to cause severe problems.


Given how deeply the anti-vaxx mentality is grabbing hold amongst the conservatives, I'm sure that the damn measles are currently working hard on preparing a come-back tour as well.

/Like most other conservative actions, they are followed by general misery
//too many people have been spoiled by how well vaccinations work that they've don't realize how bad shiat can get without them
 
2022-01-17 12:21:03 AM  

hotmoonsauce: EdgeRunner: AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?

Let's pretend that's a serious question, because some Farkers actually believe that.

A) Trumpers aren't the only ones refusing to get vaccinated or wear masks. They're just the loudest and most obnoxious about it. Not all anti-vaxxers announce themselves.

B) Even if Trumpers were the only ones refusing to take precautions, Omicron doesn't run on karma. It can still infect the vaccinated, the most commonly used masks reduce your chances of spreading it but don't offer much defense against catching it, and its impact varies from person to person. The hate-spewing Karen with the phony medical excuse and a browser history loaded with moronic conspiracy theory bullshiat could potentially catch Covid two or three times and have no ill effects, and unfairly pass it on to someone else who had shots and boosters and always wore a mask. Viruses don't care about politics or ideologies, just opportunities. (That's not to say the unvaccinated aren't more at risk than the vaccinated. They definitely are. But while they're taking the much bigger gamble with their health, only some of them will lose. Not all of them.)

C) Everyone can't just stay home, because for many, if they stop going to work they'll quickly find themselves without a home. There's a vast array of service and labor jobs that can't be done remotely, and it's unlikely we'll hear any serious talk of more stimulus checks this year.

In short, no one is 100% safe, and getting all excited over Covid death toll numbers is both uneducated and warped. Don't be a ghoul.

You are so incredibly correct. During Christmas break I honestly did not want to get together with my family because they are all nut jobs who think COVID is a cold. My wife, myself, and my youngest brother and his wife are the only family members to get vaccinated. I've been trying to get my wife on board to vaccinate our 3 children but she is resistant (caught up in all the fear and misinformation out there).

The day after Christmas (and our get together) my niece ended up getting COVID who is 8 months pregnant. (oh, she's 17 btw) And she farking knowingly came to the "party" having been around her baby daddy who tested positive days before. No one knew about it until later we found she had been talking to her cousin there and said, "Can I get COVID if my baby Daddy has it?"  O...M....G

ALL of us got sick.  ALL.  All farking 23 of us including all the children. The real kicker is the aftermath where only half actually went to get tested (all came back positive) but those who refused said they just had a cold... EVEN AFTER TELLING THEM THE POSITIVE farkING RESULTS!  How the fark do you even deal with dumbasses like that?!

It also didn't help that the 4 of us who did get vaccinated ended up the worse off. No idea why but the 4 of us were sick as fark whereas the rest of them (minus a brother-in-law) had mild symptoms for a couple days. I'm thankfully none of my children got super sick (only for a day or 2) but I can't tell you how farking pissed off I was. fark it, I still am if you can't already tell. At this point if it farking kills them I don't know that'd I give a shiat anymore. You knowingly brought that shiat in and one of my children could have paid the price.  This shiat is batshiat insane.

fark!!!!


You sure they weren't lying about their symptoms, especially considering they're blatantly lying about having covid in the first place.
 
2022-01-17 12:21:22 AM  

cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.


Based on my own observations, "its mild" means approximately "it's worse than the worst flu I ever had, but I didn't end up on a ventilator and it didn't take me months to recover, so I guess it wasn't as bad as they said."
 
2022-01-17 12:22:55 AM  

MightyMerkin: So, basically, he is saying we are Royally Farked.


He seems to be suggesting that we'll be spending a crapton more FEMA dollars on reimbursing conservatives for their self-inflicted funerals.
 
2022-01-17 12:24:30 AM  

mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?


He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?
 
2022-01-17 12:24:46 AM  

cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.


All the data out of the UK confirms fewer hospitalization, fewer ventilations, and fewer deaths per infection.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-metrics-previous-waves?utm_source=OWID+Newsletter&utm_campaign=57cd25901b-biweekly-digest-2022-01-14&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_2e166c1fc1-57cd25901b-536960754

There are of course still deaths and this says nothing about long covid, but it's very clear the effects in a substantially vaccinated population are far lower than previous variants.
 
2022-01-17 12:26:29 AM  

cretinbob: So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.


Maybe you got that H5N6 Bird Flu just reported in China. They said 5 cases, so..... it's probably worldwide at this point.

What, you think China would fight a novel bug all by themselves? Oh, no, friends. If they take a hit, *everyone* takes a hit.

A second pandemic on top of COVID? I hate to think about it. Would be worse than the Spanish Flu, given how people are burned out now. No masking, no isolation, more healthcare workers burnt out and quitting.
 
2022-01-17 12:35:20 AM  

greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.


To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.
 
2022-01-17 12:38:53 AM  
Face it, you're getting infected with Omicron. Portugal is almost 86 percent vaccinated and their mask compliance is around par for Europe, and they're getting 40k new cases daily on a population half the size of NY state's. The rest of (vaccinated) Europe isn't doing a whole lot better.

Get your booster, and hope for the best.
 
2022-01-17 12:39:47 AM  

Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.


Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.
 
2022-01-17 12:41:52 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.


Anthrax?
 
2022-01-17 12:44:10 AM  

FredoLives: Lady J: do I have to click to Twitter to see the thing about uk paediatrics?

tripled from ? to ?
I mean obviously any is a concern, but there's a lot of noise round small numbers.
[pbs.twimg.com image 850x603]

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1479115498600099842


so what's the take home message?

I'm assuming chart is new 'diagnoses' of long CoVid.
1st wave was Apr20, so can't be any lCV til Mar21. you'd expect new diagnoses from that point to be proportionate to CoVid infections/diagnoses 12mths before.  in that case, doubling lCV diagnoses from Sep21 to Nov21 would suggest CoVid infections doubled between Oct20 and Dec20.

that's around the 2nd wave.
so what is his interpretation?

or am I reading it wrong?

I should really just look at the farking research but where's the fun in that?
 
2022-01-17 12:50:44 AM  
I've been following Your Local Epidemiologist, who had a more measured approach than this doctor. She recently had a column that illustrated how viewing the numbers in a absolute vs. proportional lens can really affect conclusions. In relation to the kids' long Covid numbers, taking a proportional view:

"Thankfully, long COVID19 is less prevalent among kids compared to adults. Finland conducted a study and found the prevalence of long COVID is reported among 50% of infected adults and 2% of kids. This is consistent with research out of the UK showing that long COVID19 is present in fewer than 2% of the population."

Her whole column is here and addresses some of the criticism from people in this thread: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affairs-pediatrics-and-omicron

Also, I really do wonder if some of these increases are simply due to other factors. Remember when there was a huge spike in autism cases and people were worried about a national health crisis and not that more awareness may have led to more diagnoses? Are we sure the increase in deaths later isn't because we have more ventilators or more possible ways to treat people longer who may die anyway? Are more kids being diagnosed with long Covid because more symptoms are continually being added to the list? Numbers are important, but there's no explanation of why the numbers are what they are.
 
2022-01-17 12:53:40 AM  

neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?


Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.
 
2022-01-17 12:54:32 AM  

Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.


/Predicted MAGA-folk thought process:  Yum, free coon meat!
 
2022-01-17 12:58:55 AM  

Sin'sHero: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

Anthrax?


Nope. He got all better. Turns out rabies is fake news too.
 
2022-01-17 1:01:23 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.


The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?
 
2022-01-17 1:01:50 AM  

vilesithknight: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

Funny, that article goes on to mention That Feigi-Ding himself realizes he took an alarmist tone with his initial first tweet and he regrets it, hes greatly toned down his tweets to reflect facts, not his opinions. It even mentions that on one of his tweets he realized he made a mistake and deleted it and corrected it. Sounds like a pretty responsible highly educated man, not some deviant spreader of misinformation. He freaked out at first, like we all did, and now he is just trying to inform the public in a palatable way. He clearly takes responsibility and admits when hes wrong, which it better than like 99% of the rest of us. The article does a great job of mixing in anecdotes like "a lot of people were posting grainy photos coming out of china" but Feigi-Ding wasnt one of those "a lot of people". Mixing in that anecdotal commentary thrughout the article certainly muddles the actual facts. That article is is just adding to the misinfo out there, not rectifying anything


You know, that's a fair point. I've been dismissive of his comments for two years, but upon reflection, that may be outdated and unfair.
 
2022-01-17 1:06:43 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.


The bat contracted terminal stupidity, decided birds aren't real, and flew straight into a hawk's mouth to prove it didn't exist?
 
2022-01-17 1:07:17 AM  

NearCanuck: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?


Don't exaggerate. Rabies is like the flu. It has a 99.99997% mortality rate. I think a woman in Minnesota "survived" rabies without a vaccination.
 
2022-01-17 1:10:20 AM  

parrellel: neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?

Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.


What we have is enough. The "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD Thermonuclear Pandemic" (to quote the doc) early in the pandemic based on incomplete data is exactly what a scientist should NOT be doing.
 
2022-01-17 1:11:36 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: NearCanuck: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?

Don't exaggerate. Rabies is like the flu. It has a 99.99997% mortality rate. I think a woman in Minnesota "survived" rabies without a vaccination.


The girl only had to be frozen and have her blood replaced by antivirals for a week or two, when they thawed her out she was Right As Rain.

What do you mean there's only been one survivor?
 
2022-01-17 1:13:56 AM  

neaorin: parrellel: neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?

Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.

What we have is enough. The "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD Thermonuclear Pandemic" (to quote the doc) early in the pandemic based on incomplete data is exactly what a scientist should NOT be doing.


May you be judged your entire life on that one thing you did wrong way back when.
 
2022-01-17 1:18:48 AM  

SUMMERSN0WS: May you be judged your entire life on that one thing you did wrong way back when.


He kinda is. Without going into detail, let's just say they don't call him neaorin the bridge-builder.
 
2022-01-17 1:19:52 AM  

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


The downside is that it isn't infecting exclusively the unvaxxed and Trump supporters.
 
2022-01-17 1:20:35 AM  

parrellel: Shakin_Haitian: NearCanuck: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?

Don't exaggerate. Rabies is like the flu. It has a 99.99997% mortality rate. I think a woman in Minnesota "survived" rabies without a vaccination.

The girl only had to be frozen and have her blood replaced by antivirals for a week or two, when they thawed her out she was Right As Rain.

What do you mean there's only been one survivor?


There's been multiple survivers of rabies without vaccination?
 
2022-01-17 1:21:22 AM  

SUMMERSN0WS: neaorin: parrellel: neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?

Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.

What we have is enough. The "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD Thermonuclear Pandemic" (to quote the doc) early in the pandemic based on incomplete data is exactly what a scientist should NOT be doing.

May you be judged your entire life on that one thing you did wrong way back when.


On Twitter no less.
 
2022-01-17 1:21:47 AM  

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


From what I've seen here in Ontario, Omicron is infecting everyone except most of those that recently received their third dose, or had recently just gotten their second dose, although I'm not sure exactly the level of protection from infection that offers, and your at fairly high risk of catching it again after 3-6 months  Those that recently  recovered from a COVID infection also have some protection from infection for about the same timeframe, I've heard about 90 days or so now.

Some of those with 3 doses are getting infected, but not as often.
That said, our vaccinated cases are coming down and the unvaccinated cases are not really yet.  Ontario now has almost 40% with a third dose too.

The unvaccinated cases are still disproportionately ending up in the hospitals and ICUs though, with ICU being the greatest disparity.

I just checked some recent numbers, and unvaccinated is about 5x more likely to end up in hospital, and about 10x more likely to end up in ICU than cases with at least 2 doses.
 
2022-01-17 1:26:09 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: SUMMERSN0WS: neaorin: parrellel: neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?

Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.

What we have is enough. The "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD Thermonuclear Pandemic" (to quote the doc) early in the pandemic based on incomplete data is exactly what a scientist should NOT be doing.

May you be judged your entire life on that one thing you did wrong way back when.

On Twitter no less.


All fair points, and like I said above, I could stand to revisit my assumptions.

My general practice, given the total glut of information (some good, most not) available everywhere, is to make some quick decisions on which people are most likely to steer me wrong, and whittle aggressively.

It's why I don't read or listen to anything from Charlie Kirk, Ben Shapiro, Joe Rogan, etc. I probably lumped Eric Feigl-Ding into the wrong bucket.
 
2022-01-17 1:28:12 AM  

parrellel: Shakin_Haitian: NearCanuck: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?

Don't exaggerate. Rabies is like the flu. It has a 99.99997% mortality rate. I think a woman in Minnesota "survived" rabies without a vaccination.

The girl only had to be frozen and have her blood replaced by antivirals for a week or two, when they thawed her out she was Right As Rain.

What do you mean there's only been one survivor?


That sounds like the plot of a movie I would watch.  Although, I'm sure strange things would start happening when she got home.

SHOUT TV probably has the distribution rights.
 
2022-01-17 1:29:11 AM  
Shakin_Haitian:

There's been multiple survivers of rabies without vaccination?

You're right there's been more than one, I haven't been paying enough attention, but it seems to still be in the single digits?

Admittedly, Joke doesn't work anymore.
 
2022-01-17 1:34:29 AM  

backhand.slap.of.reason: There's a ridiculous amount of morality after Covid


This is the best news I've read all week.
 
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