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(Twitter)   Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding lives up to his name, rings a bell to bring attention to two uneplxained problems. 1) the 30% excess deaths in South Africa. 2) the TRIPLED number of children under 12 with Long Covid in the UK. Ding ding ding   (twitter.com) divider line
    More: PSA, shot  
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3659 clicks; posted to Main » and Politics » on 16 Jan 2022 at 10:20 PM (24 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2022-01-16 8:15:24 PM  
Original Tweet:

 
2022-01-16 8:24:29 PM  
It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.
 
2022-01-16 8:27:49 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-16 8:28:31 PM  

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


Bears repeating
 
2022-01-16 8:33:28 PM  
Another (obscure) board I post at had a poster who's cousin just died from covid. He was hospitalized, then sent home, then went back into the hospital, before dying. A several week process.
 
2022-01-16 8:34:11 PM  

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


Fark user imageView Full Size

why do you hate capitalism, citizen?
 
2022-01-16 8:38:14 PM  
My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.
 
2022-01-16 8:51:51 PM  

fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.


Its like a cold war here. No one says nothing to anyone
 
2022-01-16 9:08:09 PM  

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.
 
2022-01-16 9:09:22 PM  

Nadie_AZ: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

Its like a cold war here. No one says nothing to anyone


this here (So FL) too

those that vax and mask and those that don't and never the twain shall meet

people at work seem to mask the most consistently, mandate and Governor Death Santis or not
 
2022-01-16 9:48:03 PM  

greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.


So it's mild except for those people for whom it is not mild. How nice.

How about we knock it off with the propaganda designed to get people to go back to work. The 'it's mild' mantra does not help to get the borderline sociopaths to wear a mask.
 
2022-01-16 10:02:27 PM  

Nidiot: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

So it's mild except for those people for whom it is not mild. How nice.

How about we knock it off with the propaganda designed to get people to go back to work. The 'it's mild' mantra does not help to get the borderline sociopaths to wear a mask.


That is unfortunately the whole issue with Covid in general, which is why you can have jackasses who act like it is no big deal. It's more akin to the measles: highly infectious, not that bad for most patients, but deadly for just enough of them to cause severe problems.
 
2022-01-16 10:17:55 PM  
Morons, morons everywhere. Good luck farkers, everyone has a date with Omicron this month
 
2022-01-16 10:20:39 PM  
We have been doing this for two years. Mask up and get vaxxed. It isn't that hard
 
2022-01-16 10:21:49 PM  
c.tenor.comView Full Size
 
2022-01-16 10:25:01 PM  
Oh do people still care about the pandemic
What with the record number of infections
Or whatever
I mean really
Still
 
2022-01-16 10:26:27 PM  
do I have to click to Twitter to see the thing about uk paediatrics?

tripled from ? to ?
I mean obviously any is a concern, but there's a lot of noise round small numbers.
 
2022-01-16 10:27:16 PM  

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


God is playing Pandemic 2.
 
2022-01-16 10:27:59 PM  
Can some one simplify this?  Is there a lag in reporting deaths?  Are they blaming the deaths on the hospital burden? Or are these deaths post covid infection by a secondary cause brought on from covid?
 
2022-01-16 10:28:12 PM  

IgG4: We have been doing this for two years. Mask up and get vaxxed. It isn't that hard


It is for my child. She needs her second shot, but they've been out of stock for two weeks.
 
2022-01-16 10:31:28 PM  

WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?


Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a sharp guy who is very good at analyzing data and trends, and using that to cherry pick worst case scenarios. So, things are worse than we thought, but not as bad as he predicts.

Hope that helps.
 
2022-01-16 10:32:27 PM  
"It's no worse than the flu."

Yeah, about that. In two years COVID has killed more people than the seasonal flu has killed in the past 20 years.
 
2022-01-16 10:34:03 PM  
So, basically, he is saying we are Royally Farked.
 
2022-01-16 10:34:17 PM  

sno man: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

[Fark user image 720x900]
why do you hate capitalism, citizen?


The disturbing thing is I can't tell if that's not an actual slide or something from a Powerpoint presentation a conservative think tank was showing in private...
 
2022-01-16 10:39:36 PM  
No real comment
/Caring for a sick kid
//Covid+
///Cause dipshnits said oh btw I have a cold...
 
2022-01-16 10:40:30 PM  

greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.


Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.
 
2022-01-16 10:43:16 PM  

WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?  Is there a lag in reporting deaths?  Are they blaming the deaths on the hospital burden? Or are these deaths post covid infection by a secondary cause brought on from covid?


They aren't keeping good records.
I'll use that.
It's what some people said when omicron was announced. South Africa is not.....not a good place and the was a lot of room for error.
 
2022-01-16 10:45:09 PM  

fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.


Covid : Challenge accepted ..
 
2022-01-16 10:45:19 PM  
So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?
 
2022-01-16 10:47:08 PM  

Telephone Sanitizer Second Class: WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a sharp guy who is very good at analyzing data and trends, and using that to cherry pick worst case scenarios. So, things are worse than we thought, but not as bad as he predicts.

Hope that helps.


Dr Eric is a disaster porn shiatposter. Like a high-tech chicken little finding the sky-fallingest sky.
 
2022-01-16 10:48:55 PM  
Meanwhile, in the UK:

COVID-19 positive self-isolation laws could be scrapped in the UK in move to get 'back to normal as soon as we can'.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to scrap coronavirus legal requirements including self isolation rules in a major turning point towards "learning to live with COVID-19".


https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-kingdom/covid19-positive-selfisolation-laws-could-be-scrapped-in-the-uk-in-move-to-get-back-to-normal-as-soon-as-we-can/news-story/2e2e1e4791a50967bab3dc68f710913f?fbclid=IwAR3Dv4kuxDFQ14clB3EunognbQRxmcJfuOuFmU_GdYT6SDftQY6JS88TfiI
 
2022-01-16 10:50:18 PM  

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


It still affects the vaccinated? My kid < 12 double vaccinated is infected and also not a Drumph supporter. Hopefully she will be okay, but still she shouldn't have to be sick with it to begin with if those jackholes had justs grown up and participated in society.
 
2022-01-16 10:50:20 PM  

Mad-n-FL: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

God is playing Pandemic 2.


I really feel like if you are playing pandemic, this is the point you start upping lethality.  You don't have to try to be sneaky anymore, shiats everywhere.

They are sneezing in Madagascar.
 
2022-01-16 10:51:54 PM  

fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.


I am a school district administrator. I was astounded that on Thursday - as in two days ago - I had to order two district employed electricians off of campus because they refused to wear masks. this in spite of district policy that everyone must be masked, that employees are not allowed to wear cloth masks, and at an elementary school where every day they've had to send home nearly a dozen kids because they are either testing positive or are presumed positive. They also skipped contact covid pass entry protocols..

I wanted to say, "where the fark have you two been the last two years? What makes you think the rules don't apply to you?"

I'm still thinking about having them formally reprimanded. SMH
 
2022-01-16 10:52:18 PM  
the long covid that lowers your IQ is why I take it seriously
 
2022-01-16 10:53:07 PM  

greentea1985: Nidiot: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

So it's mild except for those people for whom it is not mild. How nice.

How about we knock it off with the propaganda designed to get people to go back to work. The 'it's mild' mantra does not help to get the borderline sociopaths to wear a mask.

That is unfortunately the whole issue with Covid in general, which is why you can have jackasses who act like it is no big deal. It's more akin to the measles: highly infectious, not that bad for most patients, but deadly for just enough of them to cause severe problems.


Correct. It was the same with all the variants. They can all range from infections with no symptoms all the way to terrible symptoms and eventual death, but we weren't being fed this 'it's mild' line until Omicron. Unfortunately, Omicron happened to show up at the same time that governments everywhere decided they'd had enough of supporting society and wanted us all to shut up and get back to work. Hence all we hear now is this 'it's mild' bullshiat. It's pure propaganda.

Omicron is not a 'mild' COVID-19 variant, warns WHO and epidemiologists https://www.sbs.com.au/news/omicron-is-not-a-mild-covid-19-variant-warns-who-and-epidemiologists/c3361689-dcfa-4500-a76b-730f91227453
 
2022-01-16 10:54:57 PM  

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


It's no longer just about the economy. It's also about seeing the new Spiderman movie in a theatre. In other words, people are selfish coonts who will use any justification to explain their actions.
 
2022-01-16 10:55:44 PM  
I need  real numbers  ages of deaths and  other health problems otherwise click bait.
 
2022-01-16 10:56:17 PM  

Telephone Sanitizer Second Class: WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a sharp guy who is very good at analyzing data and trends, and using that to cherry pick worst case scenarios. So, things are worse than we thought, but not as bad as he predicts.

Hope that helps.


No, he does not cherry pick worst-case scenarios. He has been quite accurate. You have been wrong a lot, though, deliberately underplaying threats from Covid; and, when you are obviously wrong 2 or 3 months later, (obvious beyond just reading incoming data and analysis), you don't offer any mea culpa.

He isn't predicting anything in the Twitter thread, though. He is showing what we know now.

And he is pointing out that it makes sense only if Omicron is causing the SA deaths and the Long Covid in UK kids.

He is not cherry piocmking to make any predictions.
 
2022-01-16 10:56:22 PM  

duenor: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

I am a school district administrator. I was astounded that on Thursday - as in two days ago - I had to order two district employed electricians off of campus because they refused to wear masks. this in spite of district policy that everyone must be masked, that employees are not allowed to wear cloth masks, and at an elementary school where every day they've had to send home nearly a dozen kids because they are either testing positive or are presumed positive. They also skipped contact covid pass entry protocols..

I wanted to say, "where the fark have you two been the last two years? What makes you think the rules don't apply to you?"

I'm still thinking about having them formally reprimanded. SMH


Nail them to the wall.

Enough "letting it slide".

FAFO.
 
2022-01-16 10:56:38 PM  
South Africa also has only a quarter of their population vaccinated.
 
2022-01-16 10:56:42 PM  

tinfoil-hat maggie: I need  real numbers  ages of deaths and  other health problems otherwise click bait.


It's all in there, buddy. It's right there.
 
2022-01-16 10:56:54 PM  

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


It's not
 
2022-01-16 10:57:24 PM  

duenor: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

I am a school district administrator. I was astounded that on Thursday - as in two days ago - I had to order two district employed electricians off of campus because they refused to wear masks. this in spite of district policy that everyone must be masked, that employees are not allowed to wear cloth masks, and at an elementary school where every day they've had to send home nearly a dozen kids because they are either testing positive or are presumed positive. They also skipped contact covid pass entry protocols..

I wanted to say, "where the fark have you two been the last two years? What makes you think the rules don't apply to you?"

I'm still thinking about having them formally reprimanded. SMH


Thinking about?
 
2022-01-16 10:58:26 PM  

Telephone Sanitizer Second Class: WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a sharp guy who is very good at analyzing data and trends, and using that to cherry pick worst case scenarios. So, things are worse than we thought, but not as bad as he predicts.

Hope that helps.


Nouriel Roubini : 2007-8 Financial Crisis  :: Eric Feigl-Ding : COVID-19 pandemic
 
2022-01-16 10:59:25 PM  

darinwil: AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?

It still affects the vaccinated? My kid < 12 double vaccinated is infected and also not a Drumph supporter. Hopefully she will be okay, but still she shouldn't have to be sick with it to begin with if those jackholes had justs grown up and participated in society.


Are you asking me or telling me?
 
2022-01-16 11:00:00 PM  
I know "30% excess deaths" seems scary - and it should - but wasn't the original wave of the pandemic something like "100% excess deaths"?

IANAEpidemiologist nor a statistician, but that is the way I remember it.
 
2022-01-16 11:00:31 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: tinfoil-hat maggie: I need  real numbers  ages of deaths and  other health problems otherwise click bait.

It's all in there, buddy. It's right there.


I must have missed it friend, in that Twitter post
 
2022-01-16 11:02:03 PM  

cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.


Omicron does not appear to primarily take hold in the nose, but in the throat, which is why the tests are missing it and people are "hacking" the tests for throat swabs.
 
2022-01-16 11:02:20 PM  
guys.. i'm mild now. Go about your business. Attend crowded sporting events, eat a fish-stick with a stranger in a crowded restaurant, or whatever you humans do. Just relax. I'm mild.

// I'm not mild
 
2022-01-16 11:02:21 PM  

fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.


THIS AND THIS
People are farking tired. The stress, the never ending stupidity from anti maskers/vaxxers...it's just dragged on so long people are tired of 'it', even though 'it' is not tired of us.
I really don't see a way out of this. More will die, it will continue to be a political issue instead of a health issue.
 
2022-01-16 11:02:50 PM  

darinwil: No real comment
/Caring for a sick kid
//Covid+
///Cause dipshnits said oh btw I have a cold...


Same here.  Whole house has/had it.  Son and wife got it the worst.  Son got it first and still has bad symptoms.  Daughter and i got off easy.  Vaccines work, fortunately for us - and I am privileged enough to work from home.
 
2022-01-16 11:02:52 PM  

duenor: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

I am a school district administrator. I was astounded that on Thursday - as in two days ago - I had to order two district employed electricians off of campus because they refused to wear masks. this in spite of district policy that everyone must be masked, that employees are not allowed to wear cloth masks, and at an elementary school where every day they've had to send home nearly a dozen kids because they are either testing positive or are presumed positive. They also skipped contact covid pass entry protocols..

I wanted to say, "where the fark have you two been the last two years? What makes you think the rules don't apply to you?"

I'm still thinking about having them formally reprimanded. SMH


"We're union members. Our union rules matter more than your silly school rules" is probably how that will go.

/still worth it to see where district administration stands on that one
 
2022-01-16 11:03:04 PM  
You FOOLS!

This is a simulation.  We are really in pods.  The Matrix is real!

WAKE UP!
 
2022-01-16 11:03:08 PM  
Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.
 
2022-01-16 11:03:21 PM  

WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?  Is there a lag in reporting deaths?  Are they blaming the deaths on the hospital burden? Or are these deaths post covid infection by a secondary cause brought on from covid?


Not a lag in reporting deaths. He is repeating what the data shows in the primary courses: the lag is that Omicron doen't kill many people in the first 21 days like other variants, but it seems in South Africa to be killing people later, like in week 4-6. Unless there is something else to account for those deaths. The alternative is really hard to explain though. There isn't a source of a Daylight Saving Time effect, or whatever the alternative would be.

There might be a counterargument that it is hospital burdens. He cautions against drawing that conclusion because so many jurisdictions, even in South Africa, have stopped collecting and/or reporting data.

That leads to the childhood Long Covid problem. There are way more kid with Long Covid right now than the recorded number of childhood infections should cause. So that means that the childhood infections are going unrecorded.

Back to South Africa, it means that by not recording or reporting Covid infections, we have the dilemma of an obvious cause of the deaths (Omicron) but from lack of reporting, we have a scapegoat (hopital burden). But previously in the pandemic, the hospital burden and all the other variants did not kill this many people. Hence he concludes, it is Omicron.

I think I've taken more word to explain it than he did. Really, you should just click on the Twitter thread.
 
2022-01-16 11:04:23 PM  

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


It's mild for the vaccinated
 
2022-01-16 11:04:51 PM  
You just can't eplxain that.
 
2022-01-16 11:04:55 PM  
That's great an all, but Twitter is not a journal paper. Get some data together, analyze it thoroughly, get it peer reviewed, have it published, then come back to me with the results.
 
2022-01-16 11:05:37 PM  
We know covid is going to rail us like Lex Steele yet we are still going to get a bunch of jagoffs in here that are like:

1)  "well, just stretch your ass out like a pro and LFG!"

2)  "Its not as bad the 3rd time around with no lube.  Trust me bro!"

3)   "I want comprehensive data that proves Lex Steele is in fact in the equine category before I officially declare my anus is wrecked.  Otherwise, its just fake news!"

4)  "Over a long enough period of time, everyone's anus is wrecked so Lex Steele isnt that big of a deal afterall!"
 
2022-01-16 11:05:38 PM  

COVID19: guys.. i'm mild now. Go about your business. Attend crowded sporting events, eat a fish-stick with a stranger in a crowded restaurant, or whatever you humans do. Just relax. I'm mild.

// I'm not mild


I've had you over again and again, and each time you wreck the place.  I'm starting to wonder if we're really friends or if you're just using me.
 
2022-01-16 11:05:49 PM  

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


I think omicron is infecting everyone.
Fauci pretty much said it.

The difference is it's severity which seems determined by several factors.
Vaxxed or not
Age/comorbidities
Speed/availability of treatment

The downside is as long as it's circulating widely even mild cases leave the door open for re-infection and mutations.

We really don't have enough of a handle on this to write it off as "well, I'm vaxxed, screw the rest", especially if protection from the vax "wears off" over time.
 
2022-01-16 11:06:06 PM  

duenor: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

I am a school district administrator. I was astounded that on Thursday - as in two days ago - I had to order two district employed electricians off of campus because they refused to wear masks. this in spite of district policy that everyone must be masked, that employees are not allowed to wear cloth masks, and at an elementary school where every day they've had to send home nearly a dozen kids because they are either testing positive or are presumed positive. They also skipped contact covid pass entry protocols..

I wanted to say, "where the fark have you two been the last two years? What makes you think the rules don't apply to you?"

I'm still thinking about having them formally reprimanded. SMH


Dress code violations are serious.

At least, I have seen them taken very seriously, often to absurd lengths.

It is improper to show your "you-know-what" around schoolchildren. It's shockingly indecent, and somebody unable to understand the problem lacks the judgement to be around kids.

There are lots of good people looking for work. Many if them are capable of following basic instructions, which is what this really boils down to. Isn't it?
 
2022-01-16 11:06:49 PM  

cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.


It's anecdotal, but I have a coworker who had covid, and had taken two rapid tests and both were negative.  He was pretty sick and eventually pcr came back positive.
 
2022-01-16 11:07:15 PM  

cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.


Here's the data I used. https://www.biospace.com/article/real-world-uk-data-suggests-omicron-less-severe-than-delta/ I do not disagree with you that Omicron isn't mild. I personally want more data because every report is comparing Omicron to Delta, but Delta is suspected to cause more severe cases in unvaccinated patients than earlier strains. The line about Omicron being more mild is misleading at best. The most positive take is that it is milder on a case-by-case basis but still capable of causing severe illness in some patients. This means that you still need some of the basic preventative measures, like masking, vaccination, and social distancing. Unfortunately, a lot of those measures are being dropped for political reasons.
 
2022-01-16 11:09:01 PM  

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-16 11:09:26 PM  

farkalt: duenor: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

I am a school district administrator. I was astounded that on Thursday - as in two days ago - I had to order two district employed electricians off of campus because they refused to wear masks. this in spite of district policy that everyone must be masked, that employees are not allowed to wear cloth masks, and at an elementary school where every day they've had to send home nearly a dozen kids because they are either testing positive or are presumed positive. They also skipped contact covid pass entry protocols..

I wanted to say, "where the fark have you two been the last two years? What makes you think the rules don't apply to you?"

I'm still thinking about having them formally reprimanded. SMH

Thinking about?


They aren't instructional, so they don't fall under my supervision. I have to talk to operations administration and have them set up a meeting with projects admin.

Yes, stuff like this is how a lot of bad apples get ignored. I'm going through the process, but part of the "thinking about" is a time consuming process to even figure out what the proper process is. And all are a time when we are super busy and under a lot of pressures.
 
2022-01-16 11:10:43 PM  

Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.


Are those graphs wrong?  Is he lying about an uptick in deaths in South Africa despite cases going down?
 
2022-01-16 11:12:25 PM  

12349876: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

Are those graphs wrong?  Is he lying about an uptick in deaths in South Africa despite cases going down?


Well. Thing is. Lots of people are likely to die in SA due to lots of things. It's.....a tough place not in a pandemic.
 
2022-01-16 11:14:04 PM  
I don't understand. All of my wingnut coworkers assure me that Covid-19 is over
 
2022-01-16 11:14:58 PM  
I am... sincerely at a loss as to what could explain away 30% excess deaths.  Even if the twitter dude was a loon, which isn't exactly in evidence.
 
2022-01-16 11:16:24 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-16 11:18:42 PM  

12349876: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

Are those graphs wrong?  Is he lying about an uptick in deaths in South Africa despite cases going down?


I don't know, but after reading that article back in the day, I stopped looking to him for advice. It's not my responsibility to look at what he posts and figure out what the flaw is.

I prefer to listen to Monica Gandhi, btw.

That's being said, I agree it's not mild (never seen any compelling proof that it is). Wear a mask.
 
2022-01-16 11:18:45 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: Telephone Sanitizer Second Class: WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?hi

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a sharp guy who is very good at analyzing data and trends, and using that to cherry pick worst case scenarios. So, things are worse than we thought, but not as bad as he predicts.

Hope that helps.

No, he does not cherry pick worst-case scenarios. He has been quite accurate. You have been wrong a lot, though, deliberately underplaying threats from Covid; and, when you are obviously wrong 2 or 3 months later, (obvious beyond just reading incoming data and analysis), you don't offer any mea culpa.


Excuse me, what? I've never downplayed covid and have nothing to apologise for. I've been wearing an N95 since March 2020 and got my booster in November. Either you are confusing me with someone else or you've got some serious issues. Get bent.
 
2022-01-16 11:19:02 PM  

Por que tan serioso: Well. Thing is. Lots of people are likely to die in SA due to lots of things. It's.....a tough place not in a pandemic.


You don't seem to understand the concept of "excess deaths".
 
2022-01-16 11:21:41 PM  

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


Let's pretend that's a serious question, because some Farkers actually believe that.

A) Trumpers aren't the only ones refusing to get vaccinated or wear masks. They're just the loudest and most obnoxious about it. Not all anti-vaxxers announce themselves.

B) Even if Trumpers were the only ones refusing to take precautions, Omicron doesn't run on karma. It can still infect the vaccinated, the most commonly used masks reduce your chances of spreading it but don't offer much defense against catching it, and its impact varies from person to person. The hate-spewing Karen with the phony medical excuse and a browser history loaded with moronic conspiracy theory bullshiat could potentially catch Covid two or three times and have no ill effects, and unfairly pass it on to someone else who had shots and boosters and always wore a mask. Viruses don't care about politics or ideologies, just opportunities. (That's not to say the unvaccinated aren't more at risk than the vaccinated. They definitely are. But while they're taking the much bigger gamble with their health, only some of them will lose. Not all of them.)

C) Everyone can't just stay home, because for many, if they stop going to work they'll quickly find themselves without a home. There's a vast array of service and labor jobs that can't be done remotely, and it's unlikely we'll hear any serious talk of more stimulus checks this year.

In short, no one is 100% safe, and getting all excited over Covid death toll numbers is both uneducated and warped. Don't be a ghoul.
 
2022-01-16 11:22:55 PM  

Por que tan serioso: Well. Thing is. Lots of people are likely to die in SA due to lots of things. It's.....a tough place not in a pandemic.


It's about a huge increase in unexpected deaths.

A lot more people are dying; their deaths are not being attributed to COVID, but that is likely a reporting problem.
 
2022-01-16 11:26:45 PM  
sno man:
[Fark user image 720x900]
why do you hate capitalism, citizen?


Needs more of a *rhyme* to it!

Staying home now?!
Might sink the Dow!
 
2022-01-16 11:27:37 PM  

SurfaceTension: Another (obscure) board I post at had a poster who's cousin just died from covid. He was hospitalized, then sent home, then went back into the hospital, before dying. A several week process.


There's a rediculus amount of morality after Covid that is not included among the official rolls.  Insurers are starting to gripe as deaths are at least 40% more frequent, even in 18 year olds.
 
2022-01-16 11:27:47 PM  
More fear porn by a twitter asshole.  This guy is a farking tool.
 
2022-01-16 11:28:17 PM  
Yeah, say there was suddenly a massive bout of gang violence in South Africa, or Ebola, or I dunno, a plane crashed into a kindergarten.  That'd get in the news.

If these people are just keeling over from heart attacks or strokes 6-8 weeks on, well, that's farking scary.  If it's
people whose lungs were et but then just got sent home to suffocate by themselves, also scary.

30% Excess deaths is nothing to sneeze at.
 
2022-01-16 11:31:49 PM  

greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.


I think that has more to do with vaccines than the variants. More people are vaccinated now than ever, plus with the booster. They are not the ones going into the hospitals and dying. All the unvaccinated are getting hit just as hard as all the previous variants.
 
2022-01-16 11:32:24 PM  

Jeebus Saves: More fear porn by a twitter asshole.  This guy is a farking tool.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-16 11:33:18 PM  

Lady J: do I have to click to Twitter to see the thing about uk paediatrics?

tripled from ? to ?
I mean obviously any is a concern, but there's a lot of noise round small numbers.

pbs.twimg.comView Full Size


https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1479115498600099842
 
2022-01-16 11:34:40 PM  

JustToLetYouKnowFriend: Jeebus Saves: More fear porn by a twitter asshole.  This guy is a farking tool.

[Fark user image 200x200]


How many times has the douche bag actually been right about anything?  He sells the worst case scenario as some kind of truth.  He peddles misinformation.  And for some reason, the mods here keep greening links to his bullshiat.
 
2022-01-16 11:36:13 PM  
My oldest sister is quarantining with Covid right now. She had the two shot vaccine plus a booster shot. She wears a mask, but works in a hospital/prisoin/mental health institute. Prior to contracting Covid, she contracted pnuemonia. Her doctor speculates that the pnuemonia lowered her immune system making her vulnerable to Covid despite the 3 vaccince shots. She has gotten slightly worse each week  for three weeks. She can't smell anything. She is irritated because her doctor refuses to give her a steroid to help her breathe citing the possible side effects. She asked "What about the side effects of suffocating because I can't breathe?"
 
2022-01-16 11:37:48 PM  

demonfaerie: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

I think that has more to do with vaccines than the variants. More people are vaccinated now than ever, plus with the booster. They are not the ones going into the hospitals and dying. All the unvaccinated are getting hit just as hard as all the previous variants.


I agree. If you are vaxxed and boosted, your case is mild. I had both my fully vaxxed 6-year-old and unvaxxed 4-year-old catch Covid in the past two weeks. The 6-year-old caught it at school and brought it home, where the 4-year-old caught it. The 6-year-old never got worse than a runny nose. The 4-year-old was a bit worse, with a fever and a lot more lethargy. Both technically had mild cases, but it was noticeably worse for my child who can't get vaxxed yet. It also fits with what I am hearing, that most of the hospitalized and dying patients are unvaxxed.
 
2022-01-16 11:38:50 PM  

Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.


Lol that year old article downplaying the threat of covid did not age well.
 
2022-01-16 11:39:05 PM  

greentea1985: demonfaerie: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

I think that has more to do with vaccines than the variants. More people are vaccinated now than ever, plus with the booster. They are not the ones going into the hospitals and dying. All the unvaccinated are getting hit just as hard as all the previous variants.

I agree. If you are vaxxed and boosted, your case is mild. I had both my fully vaxxed 6-year-old and unvaxxed 4-year-old catch Covid in the past two weeks. The 6-year-old caught it at school and brought it home, where the 4-year-old caught it. The 6-year-old never got worse than a runny nose. The 4-year-old was a bit worse, with a fever and a lot more lethargy. Both technically had mild cases, but it was noticeably worse for my child who can't get vaxxed yet. It also fits with what I am hearing, that most of the hospitalized and dying patients are unvaxxed.


I am just wondering if people who are even vaccinated are going to end up as long haulers. I haven't head any data on that.
 
2022-01-16 11:41:34 PM  

cretinbob: The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness


I think lots of people had delta when the assumption is they had omicron. That was based on sequencing mutations ratios as of about 2 weeks ago (from nextstrain.org).  I don't think omicron took off in most countries as fast as people generally assumed so there is a huge mix of the two.  If you have had covid before, the next one is usually milder but like everything, there are exceptions.  When covid does lots of damage, one of the ways it does that is causing the body to damage itself and I expect that may be why some people have the 2nd case worse.

This new info may show that people aren't getting the respiratory part bad enough to get treatment and maybe the blood problems are killing them.  With the original strain, people would show up in the ER unable to breath, be treated for that and then find out they were developing complications like diabetes which would also be treated.  Now it looks like people are getting at most "a mild flu", self treating, developing complications which also go untreated and then having long term effects.  If that is the case, omicron isn't the magic safe covid many have been looking for.
 
2022-01-16 11:41:44 PM  

SurfaceTension: Another (obscure) board I post at had a poster who's cousin just died from covid. He was hospitalized, then sent home, then went back into the hospital, before dying. A several week process.


i.imgflip.comView Full Size
 
2022-01-16 11:44:31 PM  
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend

Dunno, man, it looks like US hospitalization and ICU usage are pretty bad now.  Click on 'inpatient capacity' and compare the last week of hospitalization to any week in the pandemic up until this time.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was "milder," and I certainly expect it to be much milder for vaccinated and boosted people; but there's simply no way you can have a variant this contagious, with this much immune escape, in a country with 80-100 million unvaccinated people, and not have tons of badness happen.  The unvaccinated are now exposed to an unprecedented amount of infected individuals.
 
2022-01-16 11:49:48 PM  
It's so bad right now here that they had to switch the schools back to virtual temporarily because even with combining classes, and using admins and service personnel covering classes there aren't enough substitutes to keep up with the cases among teachers.

Of course before that two of my kids were exposed. They didn't have any symptoms but I'm pretty sure they brought it home to me and the wife. We both have had all three shots (Pfizer). I had three days of aching, coughing, headache, and heavy congestion. Wife has same symptoms but hers are lingering are bit longer.

We tried to get tested but the line was probably 300 cars deep so we just turned around and went home and have been isolating based on our symptoms.
 
2022-01-16 11:50:16 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-16 11:52:00 PM  

Walker: [Fark user image 850x850]


I thought I scrolled through the whole thread before posting it :(
 
2022-01-16 11:53:48 PM  
He's often right. He's also a shiathead AW.
 
2022-01-16 11:54:44 PM  
They shut down my school all this week. And are telling us employees we may be out this week coming up. BUT they still held basketball games at our school hosting other teams from across the county.

I think if when all of this first happened if they would have outright banned all school sports and charge families with endangerment when they let their kids go run around with other kids during the school shutdown it would have made a huge difference and saved a lot of lives.
 
2022-01-16 11:55:59 PM  

Nadie_AZ: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

Its like a cold war here. No one says nothing to anyone


Just sing this, to the tune of Daisy (or Sailing):

Plague Rats, Plague Rats,
Over the Bounding Main,
I see Plague Rats
Over and over again.
They don't wear their masks when walking,
And cough on you when talking,
They go where they want,
And do what they want,
And they don't give a fark about youuuuuu.

Once they hear it, every time they hear the tune you will have free rent in their brain.
 
2022-01-16 11:56:51 PM  

Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.


Wait, so you're calling him 'alarmist' for being one of the first to bring to people's attention how bad the COVID pandemic would be?

'Prescient' seems like a more apt adjective.
 
2022-01-16 11:58:23 PM  

Jeebus Saves: JustToLetYouKnowFriend: Jeebus Saves: More fear porn by a twitter asshole.  This guy is a farking tool.

[Fark user image 200x200]

How many times has the douche bag actually been right about anything?  He sells the worst case scenario as some kind of truth.  He peddles misinformation.  And for some reason, the mods here keep greening links to his bullshiat.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-16 11:59:36 PM  

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


The downside is that these are the type of people who get sick, don't give a fark, and still walk the fark around, usually maskless, because they can't see the ramifications of their actions beyond themselves, and will probably spread this, yes, to other unvaxxed Trump supporters, but also to, yes, vaxxed common sense people who did everything they could to stay healthy, but still crossed paths with this unvaxxed downside asshat, which may infect them, ergo, possibly infect additional people, who may, or may not have a simple case of a mild flu like illness or possibly, a complication laden life threatening, maybe even fatal or lifetime long illness.
 
2022-01-16 11:59:43 PM  

EdgeRunner: AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?

Let's pretend that's a serious question, because some Farkers actually believe that.

A) Trumpers aren't the only ones refusing to get vaccinated or wear masks. They're just the loudest and most obnoxious about it. Not all anti-vaxxers announce themselves.

B) Even if Trumpers were the only ones refusing to take precautions, Omicron doesn't run on karma. It can still infect the vaccinated, the most commonly used masks reduce your chances of spreading it but don't offer much defense against catching it, and its impact varies from person to person. The hate-spewing Karen with the phony medical excuse and a browser history loaded with moronic conspiracy theory bullshiat could potentially catch Covid two or three times and have no ill effects, and unfairly pass it on to someone else who had shots and boosters and always wore a mask. Viruses don't care about politics or ideologies, just opportunities. (That's not to say the unvaccinated aren't more at risk than the vaccinated. They definitely are. But while they're taking the much bigger gamble with their health, only some of them will lose. Not all of them.)

C) Everyone can't just stay home, because for many, if they stop going to work they'll quickly find themselves without a home. There's a vast array of service and labor jobs that can't be done remotely, and it's unlikely we'll hear any serious talk of more stimulus checks this year.

In short, no one is 100% safe, and getting all excited over Covid death toll numbers is both uneducated and warped. Don't be a ghoul.


You are so incredibly correct. During Christmas break I honestly did not want to get together with my family because they are all nut jobs who think COVID is a cold. My wife, myself, and my youngest brother and his wife are the only family members to get vaccinated. I've been trying to get my wife on board to vaccinate our 3 children but she is resistant (caught up in all the fear and misinformation out there).

The day after Christmas (and our get together) my niece ended up getting COVID who is 8 months pregnant. (oh, she's 17 btw) And she farking knowingly came to the "party" having been around her baby daddy who tested positive days before. No one knew about it until later we found she had been talking to her cousin there and said, "Can I get COVID if my baby Daddy has it?"  O...M....G

ALL of us got sick.  ALL.  All farking 23 of us including all the children. The real kicker is the aftermath where only half actually went to get tested (all came back positive) but those who refused said they just had a cold... EVEN AFTER TELLING THEM THE POSITIVE farkING RESULTS!  How the fark do you even deal with dumbasses like that?!

It also didn't help that the 4 of us who did get vaccinated ended up the worse off. No idea why but the 4 of us were sick as fark whereas the rest of them (minus a brother-in-law) had mild symptoms for a couple days. I'm thankfully none of my children got super sick (only for a day or 2) but I can't tell you how farking pissed off I was. fark it, I still am if you can't already tell. At this point if it farking kills them I don't know that'd I give a shiat anymore. You knowingly brought that shiat in and one of my children could have paid the price.  This shiat is batshiat insane.

fark!!!!
 
2022-01-17 12:00:06 AM  

cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.


I and both of my kids tested positive using a rapid antigen test. The pharmacist said mine and my son's lit up like a Christmas tree. My wife tested negative several times yet has had the worst symptoms and has been actively sick the longest. All of us tested negative with a PCR test, which I thought was really odd.
 
2022-01-17 12:00:20 AM  

Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.


Funny, that article goes on to mention That Feigi-Ding himself realizes he took an alarmist tone with his initial first tweet and he regrets it, hes greatly toned down his tweets to reflect facts, not his opinions. It even mentions that on one of his tweets he realized he made a mistake and deleted it and corrected it. Sounds like a pretty responsible highly educated man, not some deviant spreader of misinformation. He freaked out at first, like we all did, and now he is just trying to inform the public in a palatable way. He clearly takes responsibility and admits when hes wrong, which it better than like 99% of the rest of us. The article does a great job of mixing in anecdotes like "a lot of people were posting grainy photos coming out of china" but Feigi-Ding wasnt one of those "a lot of people". Mixing in that anecdotal commentary thrughout the article certainly muddles the actual facts. That article is is just adding to the misinfo out there, not rectifying anything
 
2022-01-17 12:00:33 AM  

Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.


Quotes from the article:
--------------------------
How to Misinform Yourself About the Coronavirus
By Alexis C. Madrigal
January 28, 2020

A few minutes before 11 p.m. on January 20, Eric Feigl-Ding was pretty much just another guy on the internet.

"HOLY MOTHER OF GOD-the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!!" Feigl-Ding's tweet read. "How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad-never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I'm not exaggerating." During the next five minutes, Feigl-Ding put together a thread on Twitter, mostly quoting the paper itself, that declared we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen."

Yet there were issues with Feigl-Ding's analysis, even if they were not immediately apparent to the people simply scrolling through Twitter. The thread exemplified a deep problem on Twitter: The most extreme statements can be far more amplified than more measured messages.

This was the ecosystem in which Feigl-Ding's thread landed. No wonder it took off. Unfortunately, there were some mistakes. [list of mistakes]

Feigl-Ding's tweets seem to approach the line of what professional ethics would permit public-health authorities to say. He certainly wasn't endorsing full-on conspiracy theories about bioweapons and zombies, as some people have suggested during the coronavirus outbreak. But he also was far from the calm, slow-down-there stance of the majority of other officials. And, of course, that's what made his message so irresistible.

One user in particular, @howroute, has had tremendously viral tweets about the terrible danger the world faces. These have drawn more likes and retweets than anything from Feigl-Ding or Jabr.
--------------------------

Holmes was right. Note the date of the article. Author trying to be cool and level headed, but seemingly underplaying the conflagration covid would become.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2022-01-17 12:01:16 AM  

duenor: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

I am a school district administrator. I was astounded that on Thursday - as in two days ago - I had to order two district employed electricians off of campus because they refused to wear masks. this in spite of district policy that everyone must be masked, that employees are not allowed to wear cloth masks, and at an elementary school where every day they've had to send home nearly a dozen kids because they are either testing positive or are presumed positive. They also skipped contact covid pass entry protocols..

I wanted to say, "where the fark have you two been the last two years? What makes you think the rules don't apply to you?"

I'm still thinking about having them formally reprimanded. SMH


media.giphy.comView Full Size
 
2022-01-17 12:01:44 AM  
I hope the next pandemic come with horrible, scarring, puss filled boils, that, while not completely fatal, makes you wish you were dead for the rest of your life.
 
2022-01-17 12:01:55 AM  

Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.


You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?
 
2022-01-17 12:02:10 AM  

GardenWeasel: cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.

Omicron does not appear to primarily take hold in the nose, but in the throat, which is why the tests are missing it and people are "hacking" the tests for throat swabs.


Still not mild
 
2022-01-17 12:03:31 AM  

Unsung_Hero: I know "30% excess deaths" seems scary - and it should - but wasn't the original wave of the pandemic something like "100% excess deaths"?

IANAEpidemiologist nor a statistician, but that is the way I remember it.


Are you talking about before we had widespread testing ability?
 
2022-01-17 12:06:39 AM  

parasol: AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?

I think omicron is infecting everyone.
Fauci pretty much said it.

The difference is it's severity which seems determined by several factors.
Vaxxed or not
Age/comorbidities
Speed/availability of treatment

The downside is as long as it's circulating widely even mild cases leave the door open for re-infection and mutations.

We really don't have enough of a handle on this to write it off as "well, I'm vaxxed, screw the rest", especially if protection from the vax "wears off" over time.


That's the fun thing. Immunity wanes. Period. That means even if you get "natural" immunity, it still wanes.

Get your farking boosters folks. Get the flu shot at the same time and get it over with.
 
2022-01-17 12:11:00 AM  

aungen: You FOOLS!

This is a simulation.  We are really in pods.  The Matrix is real!

WAKE UP!


It's almost like you don't even realize what the simulation even is.   Have you ever BEEN in the real world?   It's awful.
 
2022-01-17 12:11:36 AM  

Mock26: "It's no worse than the flu."

Yeah, about that. In two years COVID has killed more people than the seasonal flu has killed in the past 20 years.


WITH masks, shutdowns, millions of gallons of hand sanitizer, travel restrictions, outdoor dining and a single vaccine that for the most part covers all variants to some extent.

Without that the number would have been significantly higher
 
2022-01-17 12:13:26 AM  

Fonaibung: 12349876: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

Are those graphs wrong?  Is he lying about an uptick in deaths in South Africa despite cases going down?

I don't know, but after reading that article back in the day, I stopped looking to him for advice. It's not my responsibility to look at what he posts and figure out what the flaw is.

I prefer to listen to Monica Gandhi, btw.

That's being said, I agree it's not mild (never seen any compelling proof that it is). Wear a mask.


That article was written in January 2020, and from at least the first few paragraphs, the author is upset that he is worried that the coronavirus would develop into a worldwide pandemic? Thank god he was wrong and it turned out to be nothing.
 
2022-01-17 12:15:06 AM  

demonfaerie: greentea1985: demonfaerie: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

I think that has more to do with vaccines than the variants. More people are vaccinated now than ever, plus with the booster. They are not the ones going into the hospitals and dying. All the unvaccinated are getting hit just as hard as all the previous variants.

I agree. If you are vaxxed and boosted, your case is mild. I had both my fully vaxxed 6-year-old and unvaxxed 4-year-old catch Covid in the past two weeks. The 6-year-old caught it at school and brought it home, where the 4-year-old caught it. The 6-year-old never got worse than a runny nose. The 4-year-old was a bit worse, with a fever and a lot more lethargy. Both technically had mild cases, but it was noticeably worse for my child who can't get vaxxed yet. It also fits with what I am hearing, that most of the hospitalized and dying patients are unvaxxed.

I am just wondering if people who are even vaccinated are going to end up as long haulers. I haven't head any data on that.


Probably but at a lesser rate.

Yay?
 
2022-01-17 12:15:38 AM  

jjwars1: IgG4: We have been doing this for two years. Mask up and get vaxxed. It isn't that hard

It is for my child. She needs her second shot, but they've been out of stock for two weeks.


where are you going that is out of stock?  Every single Walmart Pharmacy in my city has Pediatric Pfizer covid-19 vaccines in stock and vaccinates for ages 5 and up.  Assuming you are in the USA that is.
 
2022-01-17 12:16:11 AM  

cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.


Same here.  Jj vax with booster, wife and kids got better vax and boosted.  New years ever covid ripped through us.  1 kid better in a few days.  1 kid just stopped coughing 2 days ago, wife better a week ago and I'm ALMOST better.  Cough is bad, ears clogged but I have my strength back.
9 negative at home tests, 4 negative pcr, 4 negative flu.

It's not mild although technically none of us had covid
 
2022-01-17 12:18:44 AM  

Enigmamf: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

Wait, so you're calling him 'alarmist' for being one of the first to bring to people's attention how bad the COVID pandemic would be?

'Prescient' seems like a more apt adjective.


You should see how the climate scientists are treated. What's even funnier is generally the "alarmist propaganda" are actually very conservative estimates which are turning out to be underestimates.
 
2022-01-17 12:20:17 AM  

fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.


greentea1985: That is unfortunately the whole issue with Covid in general, which is why you can have jackasses who act like it is no big deal. It's more akin to the measles: highly infectious, not that bad for most patients, but deadly for just enough of them to cause severe problems.


Given how deeply the anti-vaxx mentality is grabbing hold amongst the conservatives, I'm sure that the damn measles are currently working hard on preparing a come-back tour as well.

/Like most other conservative actions, they are followed by general misery
//too many people have been spoiled by how well vaccinations work that they've don't realize how bad shiat can get without them
 
2022-01-17 12:21:03 AM  

hotmoonsauce: EdgeRunner: AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?

Let's pretend that's a serious question, because some Farkers actually believe that.

A) Trumpers aren't the only ones refusing to get vaccinated or wear masks. They're just the loudest and most obnoxious about it. Not all anti-vaxxers announce themselves.

B) Even if Trumpers were the only ones refusing to take precautions, Omicron doesn't run on karma. It can still infect the vaccinated, the most commonly used masks reduce your chances of spreading it but don't offer much defense against catching it, and its impact varies from person to person. The hate-spewing Karen with the phony medical excuse and a browser history loaded with moronic conspiracy theory bullshiat could potentially catch Covid two or three times and have no ill effects, and unfairly pass it on to someone else who had shots and boosters and always wore a mask. Viruses don't care about politics or ideologies, just opportunities. (That's not to say the unvaccinated aren't more at risk than the vaccinated. They definitely are. But while they're taking the much bigger gamble with their health, only some of them will lose. Not all of them.)

C) Everyone can't just stay home, because for many, if they stop going to work they'll quickly find themselves without a home. There's a vast array of service and labor jobs that can't be done remotely, and it's unlikely we'll hear any serious talk of more stimulus checks this year.

In short, no one is 100% safe, and getting all excited over Covid death toll numbers is both uneducated and warped. Don't be a ghoul.

You are so incredibly correct. During Christmas break I honestly did not want to get together with my family because they are all nut jobs who think COVID is a cold. My wife, myself, and my youngest brother and his wife are the only family members to get vaccinated. I've been trying to get my wife on board to vaccinate our 3 children but she is resistant (caught up in all the fear and misinformation out there).

The day after Christmas (and our get together) my niece ended up getting COVID who is 8 months pregnant. (oh, she's 17 btw) And she farking knowingly came to the "party" having been around her baby daddy who tested positive days before. No one knew about it until later we found she had been talking to her cousin there and said, "Can I get COVID if my baby Daddy has it?"  O...M....G

ALL of us got sick.  ALL.  All farking 23 of us including all the children. The real kicker is the aftermath where only half actually went to get tested (all came back positive) but those who refused said they just had a cold... EVEN AFTER TELLING THEM THE POSITIVE farkING RESULTS!  How the fark do you even deal with dumbasses like that?!

It also didn't help that the 4 of us who did get vaccinated ended up the worse off. No idea why but the 4 of us were sick as fark whereas the rest of them (minus a brother-in-law) had mild symptoms for a couple days. I'm thankfully none of my children got super sick (only for a day or 2) but I can't tell you how farking pissed off I was. fark it, I still am if you can't already tell. At this point if it farking kills them I don't know that'd I give a shiat anymore. You knowingly brought that shiat in and one of my children could have paid the price.  This shiat is batshiat insane.

fark!!!!


You sure they weren't lying about their symptoms, especially considering they're blatantly lying about having covid in the first place.
 
2022-01-17 12:21:22 AM  

cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.


Based on my own observations, "its mild" means approximately "it's worse than the worst flu I ever had, but I didn't end up on a ventilator and it didn't take me months to recover, so I guess it wasn't as bad as they said."
 
2022-01-17 12:22:55 AM  

MightyMerkin: So, basically, he is saying we are Royally Farked.


He seems to be suggesting that we'll be spending a crapton more FEMA dollars on reimbursing conservatives for their self-inflicted funerals.
 
2022-01-17 12:24:30 AM  

mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?


He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?
 
2022-01-17 12:24:46 AM  

cretinbob: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

Citation needed

The original "it's mild" came from one doctor and his sample size was 43 of his patients

I recently was sick as shiat, as bad as the first time I had covid if not worse. My wife and adult son were also pretty sick. Straight up respiratory illness

Two negative antigen tests, one negative PCR test and a negative flu swab, which it was way longer than the flu anyway.

So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.

But I really am interested in knowing more and not busting your balls.
But it's not mild.


All the data out of the UK confirms fewer hospitalization, fewer ventilations, and fewer deaths per infection.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-metrics-previous-waves?utm_source=OWID+Newsletter&utm_campaign=57cd25901b-biweekly-digest-2022-01-14&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_2e166c1fc1-57cd25901b-536960754

There are of course still deaths and this says nothing about long covid, but it's very clear the effects in a substantially vaccinated population are far lower than previous variants.
 
2022-01-17 12:26:29 AM  

cretinbob: So me saying omicron isn't caught by the PCR tests, or there is a strain that's not detectable or an entirely different bad disease is out there is just as cromulent.


Maybe you got that H5N6 Bird Flu just reported in China. They said 5 cases, so..... it's probably worldwide at this point.

What, you think China would fight a novel bug all by themselves? Oh, no, friends. If they take a hit, *everyone* takes a hit.

A second pandemic on top of COVID? I hate to think about it. Would be worse than the Spanish Flu, given how people are burned out now. No masking, no isolation, more healthcare workers burnt out and quitting.
 
2022-01-17 12:35:20 AM  

greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.


To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.
 
2022-01-17 12:38:53 AM  
Face it, you're getting infected with Omicron. Portugal is almost 86 percent vaccinated and their mask compliance is around par for Europe, and they're getting 40k new cases daily on a population half the size of NY state's. The rest of (vaccinated) Europe isn't doing a whole lot better.

Get your booster, and hope for the best.
 
2022-01-17 12:39:47 AM  

Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.


Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.
 
2022-01-17 12:41:52 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.


Anthrax?
 
2022-01-17 12:44:10 AM  

FredoLives: Lady J: do I have to click to Twitter to see the thing about uk paediatrics?

tripled from ? to ?
I mean obviously any is a concern, but there's a lot of noise round small numbers.
[pbs.twimg.com image 850x603]

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1479115498600099842


so what's the take home message?

I'm assuming chart is new 'diagnoses' of long CoVid.
1st wave was Apr20, so can't be any lCV til Mar21. you'd expect new diagnoses from that point to be proportionate to CoVid infections/diagnoses 12mths before.  in that case, doubling lCV diagnoses from Sep21 to Nov21 would suggest CoVid infections doubled between Oct20 and Dec20.

that's around the 2nd wave.
so what is his interpretation?

or am I reading it wrong?

I should really just look at the farking research but where's the fun in that?
 
2022-01-17 12:50:44 AM  
I've been following Your Local Epidemiologist, who had a more measured approach than this doctor. She recently had a column that illustrated how viewing the numbers in a absolute vs. proportional lens can really affect conclusions. In relation to the kids' long Covid numbers, taking a proportional view:

"Thankfully, long COVID19 is less prevalent among kids compared to adults. Finland conducted a study and found the prevalence of long COVID is reported among 50% of infected adults and 2% of kids. This is consistent with research out of the UK showing that long COVID19 is present in fewer than 2% of the population."

Her whole column is here and addresses some of the criticism from people in this thread: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affairs-pediatrics-and-omicron

Also, I really do wonder if some of these increases are simply due to other factors. Remember when there was a huge spike in autism cases and people were worried about a national health crisis and not that more awareness may have led to more diagnoses? Are we sure the increase in deaths later isn't because we have more ventilators or more possible ways to treat people longer who may die anyway? Are more kids being diagnosed with long Covid because more symptoms are continually being added to the list? Numbers are important, but there's no explanation of why the numbers are what they are.
 
2022-01-17 12:53:40 AM  

neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?


Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.
 
2022-01-17 12:54:32 AM  

Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.


/Predicted MAGA-folk thought process:  Yum, free coon meat!
 
2022-01-17 12:58:55 AM  

Sin'sHero: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

Anthrax?


Nope. He got all better. Turns out rabies is fake news too.
 
2022-01-17 1:01:23 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.


The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?
 
2022-01-17 1:01:50 AM  

vilesithknight: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

Funny, that article goes on to mention That Feigi-Ding himself realizes he took an alarmist tone with his initial first tweet and he regrets it, hes greatly toned down his tweets to reflect facts, not his opinions. It even mentions that on one of his tweets he realized he made a mistake and deleted it and corrected it. Sounds like a pretty responsible highly educated man, not some deviant spreader of misinformation. He freaked out at first, like we all did, and now he is just trying to inform the public in a palatable way. He clearly takes responsibility and admits when hes wrong, which it better than like 99% of the rest of us. The article does a great job of mixing in anecdotes like "a lot of people were posting grainy photos coming out of china" but Feigi-Ding wasnt one of those "a lot of people". Mixing in that anecdotal commentary thrughout the article certainly muddles the actual facts. That article is is just adding to the misinfo out there, not rectifying anything


You know, that's a fair point. I've been dismissive of his comments for two years, but upon reflection, that may be outdated and unfair.
 
2022-01-17 1:06:43 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.


The bat contracted terminal stupidity, decided birds aren't real, and flew straight into a hawk's mouth to prove it didn't exist?
 
2022-01-17 1:07:17 AM  

NearCanuck: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?


Don't exaggerate. Rabies is like the flu. It has a 99.99997% mortality rate. I think a woman in Minnesota "survived" rabies without a vaccination.
 
2022-01-17 1:10:20 AM  

parrellel: neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?

Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.


What we have is enough. The "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD Thermonuclear Pandemic" (to quote the doc) early in the pandemic based on incomplete data is exactly what a scientist should NOT be doing.
 
2022-01-17 1:11:36 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: NearCanuck: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?

Don't exaggerate. Rabies is like the flu. It has a 99.99997% mortality rate. I think a woman in Minnesota "survived" rabies without a vaccination.


The girl only had to be frozen and have her blood replaced by antivirals for a week or two, when they thawed her out she was Right As Rain.

What do you mean there's only been one survivor?
 
2022-01-17 1:13:56 AM  

neaorin: parrellel: neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?

Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.

What we have is enough. The "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD Thermonuclear Pandemic" (to quote the doc) early in the pandemic based on incomplete data is exactly what a scientist should NOT be doing.


May you be judged your entire life on that one thing you did wrong way back when.
 
2022-01-17 1:18:48 AM  

SUMMERSN0WS: May you be judged your entire life on that one thing you did wrong way back when.


He kinda is. Without going into detail, let's just say they don't call him neaorin the bridge-builder.
 
2022-01-17 1:19:52 AM  

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


The downside is that it isn't infecting exclusively the unvaxxed and Trump supporters.
 
2022-01-17 1:20:35 AM  

parrellel: Shakin_Haitian: NearCanuck: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?

Don't exaggerate. Rabies is like the flu. It has a 99.99997% mortality rate. I think a woman in Minnesota "survived" rabies without a vaccination.

The girl only had to be frozen and have her blood replaced by antivirals for a week or two, when they thawed her out she was Right As Rain.

What do you mean there's only been one survivor?


There's been multiple survivers of rabies without vaccination?
 
2022-01-17 1:21:22 AM  

SUMMERSN0WS: neaorin: parrellel: neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?

Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.

What we have is enough. The "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD Thermonuclear Pandemic" (to quote the doc) early in the pandemic based on incomplete data is exactly what a scientist should NOT be doing.

May you be judged your entire life on that one thing you did wrong way back when.


On Twitter no less.
 
2022-01-17 1:21:47 AM  

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


From what I've seen here in Ontario, Omicron is infecting everyone except most of those that recently received their third dose, or had recently just gotten their second dose, although I'm not sure exactly the level of protection from infection that offers, and your at fairly high risk of catching it again after 3-6 months  Those that recently  recovered from a COVID infection also have some protection from infection for about the same timeframe, I've heard about 90 days or so now.

Some of those with 3 doses are getting infected, but not as often.
That said, our vaccinated cases are coming down and the unvaccinated cases are not really yet.  Ontario now has almost 40% with a third dose too.

The unvaccinated cases are still disproportionately ending up in the hospitals and ICUs though, with ICU being the greatest disparity.

I just checked some recent numbers, and unvaccinated is about 5x more likely to end up in hospital, and about 10x more likely to end up in ICU than cases with at least 2 doses.
 
2022-01-17 1:26:09 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: SUMMERSN0WS: neaorin: parrellel: neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?

Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.

What we have is enough. The "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD Thermonuclear Pandemic" (to quote the doc) early in the pandemic based on incomplete data is exactly what a scientist should NOT be doing.

May you be judged your entire life on that one thing you did wrong way back when.

On Twitter no less.


All fair points, and like I said above, I could stand to revisit my assumptions.

My general practice, given the total glut of information (some good, most not) available everywhere, is to make some quick decisions on which people are most likely to steer me wrong, and whittle aggressively.

It's why I don't read or listen to anything from Charlie Kirk, Ben Shapiro, Joe Rogan, etc. I probably lumped Eric Feigl-Ding into the wrong bucket.
 
2022-01-17 1:28:12 AM  

parrellel: Shakin_Haitian: NearCanuck: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?

Don't exaggerate. Rabies is like the flu. It has a 99.99997% mortality rate. I think a woman in Minnesota "survived" rabies without a vaccination.

The girl only had to be frozen and have her blood replaced by antivirals for a week or two, when they thawed her out she was Right As Rain.

What do you mean there's only been one survivor?


That sounds like the plot of a movie I would watch.  Although, I'm sure strange things would start happening when she got home.

SHOUT TV probably has the distribution rights.
 
2022-01-17 1:29:11 AM  
Shakin_Haitian:

There's been multiple survivers of rabies without vaccination?

You're right there's been more than one, I haven't been paying enough attention, but it seems to still be in the single digits?

Admittedly, Joke doesn't work anymore.
 
2022-01-17 1:34:29 AM  

backhand.slap.of.reason: There's a ridiculous amount of morality after Covid


This is the best news I've read all week.
 
2022-01-17 1:36:20 AM  

IgG4: We have been doing this for two years. Mask up and get vaxxed. It isn't that hard


I'm doing that. I've always done that. So why can't I pay my rent? Why are people who have done what the government has been telling them doing so badly? And why are we okay with this?
 
2022-01-17 1:37:26 AM  

parrellel: Shakin_Haitian:

There's been multiple survivers of rabies without vaccination?

You're right there's been more than one, I haven't been paying enough attention, but it seems to still be in the single digits?

Admittedly, Joke doesn't work anymore.


I'm so confused. I was expressing surprise that there was more than one surviver. I knew about the one who had to go through some crazy ass shiat to survive.

On a side note, have you ever seen video of someone suffering from rabies? That shiat is terrifying.
 
2022-01-17 1:38:56 AM  
For those wondering it seems between 5 and 13 people treated with the Milwaukee protocol (freeze the fark out of you and fill you with antivirals) have Not Died of Rabies.  Information's a bit shiat.

I hadn't heard of any successes beyond that first before today.  So cool?
 
2022-01-17 1:39:41 AM  

litespeed74: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

THIS AND THIS
People are farking tired. The stress, the never ending stupidity from anti maskers/vaxxers...it's just dragged on so long people are tired of 'it', even though 'it' is not tired of us.
I really don't see a way out of this. More will die, it will continue to be a political issue instead of a health issue.


All we have to do is pay people to stay home.

OK, that's not all we have to do. But Jesus f*cking Christ it would mitigate so many problems were experiencing right now. We don't need all these people working and breathing the same air.
 
2022-01-17 1:40:56 AM  

King Something: AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?

The downside is that it isn't infecting exclusively the unvaxxed and Trump supporters.


These threads also tend to ignore those who'd love to get vaccinated, but have extreme allergies and/or other complications that prevent them from getting the shots. Some people have genuine medical reasons they can't take the vaccines, which they'd gladly give away to any of the anti-vax idiots waving around fake doctor's orders.

It's too bad they can't.
 
2022-01-17 1:41:04 AM  

austerity101: IgG4: We have been doing this for two years. Mask up and get vaxxed. It isn't that hard

I'm doing that. I've always done that. So why can't I pay my rent? Why are people who have done what the government has been telling them doing so badly? And why are we okay with this?


Because, by god, people who don't deserve it (i.e. not me) might get an unearned benefit of some kind, therefore everything must be as shiatty as possible.
 
2022-01-17 1:48:12 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: austerity101: IgG4: We have been doing this for two years. Mask up and get vaxxed. It isn't that hard

I'm doing that. I've always done that. So why can't I pay my rent? Why are people who have done what the government has been telling them doing so badly? And why are we okay with this?

Because, by god, people who don't deserve it (i.e. not me) might get an unearned benefit of some kind, therefore everything must be as shiatty as possible.


Like, I will stay home. I will literally stay in my house as long as anyone needs me to, cut off from the entire world, as long as I also don't have to figure out how to pay my bills. But the f*cking government is making us do both! How are we supposed to isolate and distance and "stay safe" when we have to not do those things to earn the privilege to not be f*cking homeless? This is f*cking insane.

This feels worse than a year ago. At least then I was getting unemployment help. Now here I am, three shots later, feeling even more trapped, and getting zero help from the government. This is literally worse.
 
2022-01-17 2:15:23 AM  

austerity101: Shakin_Haitian: austerity101: IgG4: We have been doing this for two years. Mask up and get vaxxed. It isn't that hard

I'm doing that. I've always done that. So why can't I pay my rent? Why are people who have done what the government has been telling them doing so badly? And why are we okay with this?

Because, by god, people who don't deserve it (i.e. not me) might get an unearned benefit of some kind, therefore everything must be as shiatty as possible.

Like, I will stay home. I will literally stay in my house as long as anyone needs me to, cut off from the entire world, as long as I also don't have to figure out how to pay my bills. But the f*cking government is making us do both! How are we supposed to isolate and distance and "stay safe" when we have to not do those things to earn the privilege to not be f*cking homeless? This is f*cking insane.

This feels worse than a year ago. At least then I was getting unemployment help. Now here I am, three shots later, feeling even more trapped, and getting zero help from the government. This is literally worse.


Yep. shiat sucks and we unfortunately have a significant minority of people living in the right places that are purposefully and actively making things worse.

The only advice I can give is research IT certs and try to get a remote job. If you've got a head for science and technology, it's somewhat easy to do in terms of the amount of study you have to put in.
 
2022-01-17 2:28:58 AM  

SUMMERSN0WS: neaorin: parrellel: neaorin: mudesi: Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.

You mean the article published on January 28, 2020, where every prediction made by him turned out to be completely correct?

He predicted we were "faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" based just on a (at the time, preliminary and incorrect) R0 number.

Meanwhile it's not the most virulent epidemic (Spanish flu was way more virulent) and not the most easily to spread either (H1N1 swine flu).

He deleted that prediction later though, so I guess points for him?

Dude, we've been wearing masks and praying our lungs don't liquefy on us for going on two years now.  Man got excited once, do we have anything at all more damning then a slightly, SLIGHTLY, excessive "shiats going to get REAL Folks" a month before everything shut down.

What we have is enough. The "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD Thermonuclear Pandemic" (to quote the doc) early in the pandemic based on incomplete data is exactly what a scientist should NOT be doing.

May you be judged your entire life on that one thing you did wrong way back when.


I'm not judging his entire life but I also won't be looking to him for pandemic advice. Not when there's enough decent sources around.
 
2022-01-17 4:36:45 AM  

WhippingBoi: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's no longer just about the economy. It's also about seeing the new Spiderman movie in a theatre. In other words, people are selfish coonts who will use any justification to explain their actions.


That would always have been a problem, yes. It's much MORE of a problem when you have most of the government (as well as "respected" media outlets) encouraging that attitude in the name of keeping the Wall Street parasites happy.
 
2022-01-17 6:36:52 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: Unsung_Hero: I know "30% excess deaths" seems scary - and it should - but wasn't the original wave of the pandemic something like "100% excess deaths"?

IANAEpidemiologist nor a statistician, but that is the way I remember it.

Are you talking about before we had widespread testing ability?


Um... you know excess deaths is a useful measure in this pandemic because it has absolutely nothing to do with testing, right?  It's the thing you can't hide by not testing or mis-reporting cause of death.
 
2022-01-17 7:02:59 AM  

Jeebus Saves: More fear porn by a twitter asshole.  This guy is a farking tool.


Go lick a lamppost.
 
2022-01-17 7:12:49 AM  

parrellel: Shakin_Haitian: NearCanuck: Shakin_Haitian: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: greentea1985: Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.

It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.

To translate for the MAGA-folk: Delta is me releasing 10000 biting racoons in town, 50 of which have rabies. Omnicron is me releasing 100000 biting racoons in town 300 of which have rabies.

Funny thing. An antivaxxer recently got infected from a bat that was known to have rabies and refused to get vaccinated.

Guess what happened.

The only thing that ever seems to happen with an unvaccinated rabies case.

They helped re-prove rabies has a 100% mortality rate?

Don't exaggerate. Rabies is like the flu. It has a 99.99997% mortality rate. I think a woman in Minnesota "survived" rabies without a vaccination.

The girl only had to be frozen and have her blood replaced by antivirals for a week or two, when they thawed her out she was Right As Rain.

What do you mean there's only been one survivor?


https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/jeanna-giese-rabies-survivor/

/ iT wAs ThE vItAmInS tHeY gAvE her, StUdY iT oUt
 
2022-01-17 7:30:36 AM  

Unsung_Hero: Shakin_Haitian: Unsung_Hero: I know "30% excess deaths" seems scary - and it should - but wasn't the original wave of the pandemic something like "100% excess deaths"?

IANAEpidemiologist nor a statistician, but that is the way I remember it.

Are you talking about before we had widespread testing ability?

Um... you know excess deaths is a useful measure in this pandemic because it has absolutely nothing to do with testing, right?  It's the thing you can't hide by not testing or mis-reporting cause of death.


Upon re-reading, I suspect you were implying that measures were poor to non-existent in the early days, which is true.  And upon doing some research, it looks like you were correct to do so.

IF (and this is a decently-sized 'if') I'm reading what I found correctly, the original 'almost no defense' wave peaked at +100%, but subsequently it's been in the 15-30% range.  Which means if Omicron is hitting those same numbers it would seem to be just as bad - or worse enough for the unvaccinated to make up for a reduction in deaths among the vaccinated.
 
2022-01-17 7:54:59 AM  

Znuh: So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


It's not just the economy. There is societal burnout, probably widespread by now. Many people who cared before and tried to take reasonable precautions don't care anymore.
 
2022-01-17 7:56:23 AM  

fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.


Very few people were willing to put their foot down and enforce mask wearing in 2020. It's far too late in 2020.
 
2022-01-17 7:57:54 AM  

Nidiot: The 'it's mild' mantra does not help to get the borderline sociopaths to wear a mask.


Only brute force can accomplish that.
 
2022-01-17 8:01:08 AM  

Mock26: "It's no worse than the flu."

Yeah, about that. In two years COVID has killed more people than the seasonal flu has killed in the past 20 years.


But if I die in a car accident after testing positive for COVID the hospital will report me as a COVID death. The internet told me so it must be true!

/s
 
2022-01-17 8:06:41 AM  

duenor: I wanted to say, "where the fark have you two been the last two years? What makes you think the rules don't apply to you?"


The United States America, that's where. Freedom is entitlement to many people here. And if you don't reprimand them you're encouraging them.
 
2022-01-17 8:31:30 AM  

WillofJ2: Can some one simplify this?  Is there a lag in reporting deaths?  Are they blaming the deaths on the hospital burden? Or are these deaths post covid infection by a secondary cause brought on from covid?


[D]All of the above.

And frankly, it doesn't really matter if grandma died on a ventilator in the ICU or at home because there was no room at the hospital.  She's still dead.
 
2022-01-17 8:36:35 AM  
You know there are people who ignore mask mandates and won't get vaccinated, but will get through this pandemic just fine and say that's proof that this was never a big deal.
 
2022-01-17 8:37:25 AM  

AeAe: So omicron is infecting mostly unvaxxed/Trump-supporters, right? What's the downside?


In the very small probability that you are serious, an not just trolling on a Monday morning:  the down side is that (a) it does not only affect Trumpets, (b) even if did only affect Trumpets, it would provide for a large enough bassin for newer, potentially deadlier strains to evolve, (c) long-COVID is a real thing with kids and by letting them pay for the sins of their parents will have lasting negative effects on the health care system, and finally (c) this is a worldwide pandemic, virtually no one gives a flying fark about Trump outside of your borders, so stop navel-gazing for a minute and think about the rest of the people who happen to share this pale blue dot.
 
2022-01-17 8:38:43 AM  

duenor: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

I am a school district administrator. I was astounded that on Thursday - as in two days ago - I had to order two district employed electricians off of campus because they refused to wear masks. this in spite of district policy that everyone must be masked, that employees are not allowed to wear cloth masks, and at an elementary school where every day they've had to send home nearly a dozen kids because they are either testing positive or are presumed positive. They also skipped contact covid pass entry protocols..

I wanted to say, "where the fark have you two been the last two years? What makes you think the rules don't apply to you?"

I'm still thinking about having them formally reprimanded. SMH


Go for it.
 
2022-01-17 9:08:14 AM  

backhand.slap.of.reason: SurfaceTension: Another (obscure) board I post at had a poster who's cousin just died from covid. He was hospitalized, then sent home, then went back into the hospital, before dying. A several week process.

There's a rediculus amount of morality after Covid that is not included among the official rolls.  Insurers are starting to gripe as deaths are at least 40% more frequent, even in 18 year olds.


I fully expect insurance premiums to go stratospheric in the next 12 to 24 months as COVID numbers get crunched by the actuaries.
 
2022-01-17 9:13:18 AM  

Fonaibung: Eric Feigl-Ding, subject of this article on misinformation?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/

I'll wait before reacting to his alarmism.


Based on what has transpired since 1/1/2020, Eric was lightyears closer to the truth than the author of this article.
 
2022-01-17 10:12:41 AM  

austerity101: litespeed74: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

THIS AND THIS
People are farking tired. The stress, the never ending stupidity from anti maskers/vaxxers...it's just dragged on so long people are tired of 'it', even though 'it' is not tired of us.
I really don't see a way out of this. More will die, it will continue to be a political issue instead of a health issue.

All we have to do is pay people to stay home.

OK, that's not all we have to do. But Jesus f*cking Christ it would mitigate so many problems were experiencing right now. We don't need all these people working and breathing the same air.


The only thing worse than this pandemic was having Trump in charge at the beginning of the pandemic.  What a disaster.
 
2022-01-17 10:25:06 AM  
There are people out there who will continue to believe that, since 99% of humanity did not die and society is still functioning normally, that therefore this was "not as bad as they said" and "we never should have done X" (whatever X may be). They're the ones who can see COVID taking down a young, fit, healthy person and either blame it on some unknown, unexplained "comorbidity" or start darkly alleging conspiracies about mysterious "engineered viruses".

They should all be put on big rafts and just pushed out to sea; but we live in an enlightened age where that is not done.
 
2022-01-17 10:55:14 AM  

duenor: fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.

I am a school district administrator. I was astounded that on Thursday - as in two days ago - I had to order two district employed electricians off of campus because they refused to wear masks. this in spite of district policy that everyone must be masked, that employees are not allowed to wear cloth masks, and at an elementary school where every day they've had to send home nearly a dozen kids because they are either testing positive or are presumed positive. They also skipped contact covid pass entry protocols..

I wanted to say, "where the fark have you two been the last two years? What makes you think the rules don't apply to you?"

I'm still thinking about having them formally reprimanded. SMH


Do it. The district needs to know. And way to stick up for your staff and kiddos. Thank you.
 
2022-01-17 10:59:06 AM  

parrellel: For those wondering it seems between 5 and 13 people treated with the Milwaukee protocol (freeze the fark out of you and fill you with antivirals) have Not Died of Rabies.  Information's a bit shiat.

I hadn't heard of any successes beyond that first before today.  So cool?


Very, very cool, apparently.
 
2022-01-17 12:44:24 PM  

Znuh: It's Mild.
It's Mild.
It's Mild.

Whoops. It's not Mild.

So tired of people putting health and welfare second to the economy.


Don't forget, sometimes it's ideology over human lives & suffering, too.  I mean, the ideologies have been created & weaponized by the people for whom the economy is everything, of course, but it gets out of control once you start, taking on a life of its own.
 
2022-01-17 1:17:55 PM  

fragMasterFlash: My area has had an indoor mask mandate since mid-August. I'm currently seeing far more people than ever ignoring that mandate, and it seems like no one has the energy to confront the maskless anymore.


Around here there has been basically zero dealing with the maskless outside medical settings.

greentea1985: It's a lot of what I call devil's arithmetic. On a case-by-case basis, Omicron is milder than Delta, but it is also more infectious. Current numbers say Omicron patients are 15-20% less likely to go to the ER with severe symptoms and 40% less likely to be hospitalized overnight than Delta patients. However, Omicron is also 2-4x more infectious than Delta with a higher R0. This means that most people will not experience a bad case with Omicron, but there will be more people experiencing bad cases than seen with Delta due to how many people are getting it.


Yup, and the testing systems are being overwhelmed everywhere, we don't know the actual infection rate.
 
2022-01-17 6:21:51 PM  
Holy shiat, the people in this thread who think they are reasonable, but clearly don't bother looking for data or epidemiologist's skillsets in reading it.

Like the people saying they want proper sources, not Twitter. Each of the tweets links direftly to valid sources.

Like the people who are saying they don't trust his claims without seeing the numbers. Almost every tweet links to a source and show one of the data graphics from that source. The numbers are visible to you in each tweet.

The people who say he exaggerates for attention. He is showing you the numbers, their sources, and he doe not deviate from what his sources say, unless he is saying, (I am paraphrasing), "But look at these other results from other places, which means that over time it could be [omething worse that requires different responses]."

This thread has a lot of low-literacy dysfunction.

And, as submitter (note the mods keeping my idiosyncratic tyipng mistrakes int he headline b/c the Mods love spleling mistales and I hate correcting them), I really have clicked and checked on what Eric Feigl-Ding's sources say. I'm not the only person to submit his links, but I submit them because he is accurate, he does not change what his sources say, he rebuts claims in his sources with data from other sources, he explains the methodological reasons he prefers one to another, and he has proven reliable when he says that governments or media are carrying out inadequate responses.
 
2022-01-17 9:41:47 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: Holy shiat, the people in this thread who think they are reasonable, but clearly don't bother looking for data or epidemiologist's skillsets in reading it.

Like the people saying they want proper sources, not Twitter. Each of the tweets links direftly to valid sources.

Like the people who are saying they don't trust his claims without seeing the numbers. Almost every tweet links to a source and show one of the data graphics from that source. The numbers are visible to you in each tweet.

The people who say he exaggerates for attention. He is showing you the numbers, their sources, and he doe not deviate from what his sources say, unless he is saying, (I am paraphrasing), "But look at these other results from other places, which means that over time it could be [omething worse that requires different responses]."

This thread has a lot of low-literacy dysfunction.

And, as submitter (note the mods keeping my idiosyncratic tyipng mistrakes int he headline b/c the Mods love spleling mistales and I hate correcting them), I really have clicked and checked on what Eric Feigl-Ding's sources say. I'm not the only person to submit his links, but I submit them because he is accurate, he does not change what his sources say, he rebuts claims in his sources with data from other sources, he explains the methodological reasons he prefers one to another, and he has proven reliable when he says that governments or media are carrying out inadequate responses.


Oh yeah? Then why does my neighbor's friend's hairdresser say there's just something shady about the guy? People don't just post things like that on Facebook unless they feel strongly enough to put up a post on Facebook!
 
2022-01-18 12:20:59 AM  

EdgeRunner: Bennie Crabtree: Holy shiat, the people in this thread who think they are reasonable, but clearly don't bother looking for data or epidemiologist's skillsets in reading it.

Like the people saying they want proper sources, not Twitter. Each of the tweets links direftly to valid sources.

Like the people who are saying they don't trust his claims without seeing the numbers. Almost every tweet links to a source and show one of the data graphics from that source. The numbers are visible to you in each tweet.

The people who say he exaggerates for attention. He is showing you the numbers, their sources, and he doe not deviate from what his sources say, unless he is saying, (I am paraphrasing), "But look at these other results from other places, which means that over time it could be [omething worse that requires different responses]."

This thread has a lot of low-literacy dysfunction.

And, as submitter (note the mods keeping my idiosyncratic tyipng mistrakes int he headline b/c the Mods love spleling mistales and I hate correcting them), I really have clicked and checked on what Eric Feigl-Ding's sources say. I'm not the only person to submit his links, but I submit them because he is accurate, he does not change what his sources say, he rebuts claims in his sources with data from other sources, he explains the methodological reasons he prefers one to another, and he has proven reliable when he says that governments or media are carrying out inadequate responses.

Oh yeah? Then why does my neighbor's friend's hairdresser say there's just something shady about the guy? People don't just post things like that on Facebook unless they feel strongly enough to put up a post on Facebook!


Ivermectin.

Checkmate.
 
2022-01-18 5:27:05 AM  

Shakin_Haitian: Ivermectin.

Checkmate.


Not so fast. You can't just drop your Ivermectin on the board and declare it checked my mate. What square is it on? If it's one of the ones I put a bunch of hotels on, then it's your mate getting stuck with the check! Aha!
 
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