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(Imperial College of London)   Omicron turns out not to be 'mild', but as severe as Delta, with 4x the infection / transmissibility   (imperial.ac.uk) divider line
    More: Followup, Vaccination, Immune system, London, University College London, Imperial College London, Imperial's latest report, Public health, Infectious disease  
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1533 clicks; posted to STEM » on 17 Dec 2021 at 11:29 AM (21 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2021-12-17 10:41:35 AM  
No shiat.  Our numbers here in Ontario shot to over 3,000 today.  Yesterday it was 2400+.  The day before, 1800+.  Of these, some 2/3rds are in fully vaccinated people who have not yet had their booster.  Forecasts are predicting 10,000+ a day by January in Ontario alone if we don't do something ASA-farking-P.  I'm on a waiting list to get my booster, and I hope I can get it PDQ.

Omicron is pretty farking scary.
 
2021-12-17 11:06:07 AM  
Kiss your butts goodbye.
 
2021-12-17 11:18:19 AM  
Stop thinking about production line profits and REFORM THE DAMNED VACCINES ALREADY.
 
2021-12-17 11:26:18 AM  
 
2021-12-17 11:29:20 AM  

IgG4: Kiss your butts goodbye.


If you're not vaccinated.
 
2021-12-17 11:35:23 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-12-17 11:37:20 AM  
If this is true, then we're farked.

By the time a new vaccine is formulated, there will be a new variant that evades that as well.

So, hope that this is wrong. Because if it's not, we're farked.
 
2021-12-17 11:45:49 AM  

JerseyTim: OTOH: https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1471749391585214465


Empirical data>>>>>>>>>>>>Modeled data.
 
2021-12-17 11:49:44 AM  
Get vaccinated don't be an asshole
 
2021-12-17 11:54:05 AM  
If it's that much more transmissible, severity almost doesn't matter.  The sheer number of cases will overwhelm hospital capacity.
 
2021-12-17 11:55:11 AM  
And next week we'll probably have three more red states declare the pandemic over.
 
2021-12-17 11:57:11 AM  
Two cases confirmed in Lehigh Valley PA just a short car ride from Bradford County, and I think we are sitting at around 60% vaccination rate.
 
2021-12-17 11:57:23 AM  

I hereby demand that I be given a Fark account: If this is true, then we're farked.

By the time a new vaccine is formulated, there will be a new variant that evades that as well.

So, hope that this is wrong. Because if it's not, we're farked.


To be fair, ~1% of us are farked.
 
2021-12-17 11:59:09 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-12-17 12:01:08 PM  
Got boosted yesterday, which was a pain in the ass in my area. My local CVS inside of my Target didn't have the vaccines delivered because of staffing issues (guess they have a central location where they keep it cold). I had set up an appointment two weeks ago, so it was really annoying that no one called me to let me know or tried to reschedule me.

They sent me over to another Target for the shot. The other CVS/Target said they shouldn't have because they were all booked up, but they managed to fit me in anyway. It kind of worked out in the end because I was able to get a Moderna booster to go with my original Pfizer vaccination, but it was a little harder than it should have been.

It's a lot harder to get a booster than in should be in the Seattle metro, and it seems to be a lot of healthcare providers just not having the staffing handle the surge in demand.
 
2021-12-17 12:01:20 PM  
One quarter of fatalities per age group X 4 times the virulency = A much much larger pile of bodies.

Even assuming that holds.

Also we're out of doctors.

/me goes and finds the rum.
 
2021-12-17 12:01:42 PM  
This guy that I work with was just off for 10 days because he caught Covid, not sure if it was Omicron. But his daughter and son also caught it. Him and his daughter both had 2 shots and his wife had the booster and his son is 2.

But the way they got it was that his wife took his daughter and his son to Indiana for the weekend to hang out with some people in her family. She has a lot of antivaxxers in her family, including her sister. He said while they were there the grandfather started getting sick, turned out to be Covid, and some other people started getting sick. When they came back, his daughter and son eventually got sick and spread it to him.

He was pissed. He told his wife that her sister or any other non-vaxxed members of her family are allowed in their house again, and their kids can't be around them either. He had already told her this before when they were ranting about how they are not going to get vaccinated, but he let up, he said this time he means it, they are done.
 
2021-12-17 12:02:14 PM  
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2021-12-17 12:03:12 PM  

Mad_Radhu: Got boosted yesterday, which was a pain in the ass



They are supposed to inject in your arm.
 
2021-12-17 12:08:55 PM  
Well, that was even more of a jump than I thought it was.

I wonder how many Farkers are going to rush in, talking about how the virus cannot mutate to evade the vaccine, blah blah blah, even though we know even the Alpha variant evades our immune system by growing filopodia and passing the blood-brain-barrier, hiding in every gland and vescicle, etc etc etc...
 
2021-12-17 12:09:30 PM  
TFA doesn't say it's just as bad, it says "The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta" that's not the same.

Unless I missed it in another part of the article.
 
2021-12-17 12:11:40 PM  

Cormee: TFA doesn't say it's just as bad, it says "The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta" that's not the same.

Unless I missed it in another part of the article.



Came here to say this.  No info on severity whatsoever.  Bad Subby.  No doughnut.
 
2021-12-17 12:17:09 PM  

Cormee: TFA doesn't say it's just as bad, it says "The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta" that's not the same.

Unless I missed it in another part of the article.


Shhhhhh.  This is Fark.com.  It's going to be taken out of context whether you like it or not.
 
2021-12-17 12:18:27 PM  

Psychopusher: Our numbers here in Ontario shot to over 3,000 today. Yesterday it was 2400+. The day before, 1800+.


What numbers?  self-selected positive tests?  Hospital admittances? ICU admits?  Deaths?  Random tests?  Number of pirates?  What???
 
2021-12-17 12:21:07 PM  
y.yarn.coView Full Size
 
2021-12-17 12:23:26 PM  

Sliding Carp: Psychopusher: Our numbers here in Ontario shot to over 3,000 today. Yesterday it was 2400+. The day before, 1800+.

What numbers?  self-selected positive tests?  Hospital admittances? ICU admits?  Deaths?  Random tests?  Number of pirates?  What???


The daily numbers that arise from administered PCR tests.  You know, like everywhere else.
 
2021-12-17 12:24:41 PM  

Kuroshin: Cormee: TFA doesn't say it's just as bad, it says "The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta" that's not the same.

Unless I missed it in another part of the article.


Came here to say this.  No info on severity whatsoever.  Bad Subby.  No doughnut.


Exactly.  Transmissibility != Severity.  Not a good situation and I don't know of any reputable source that was saying it was mild.
 
2021-12-17 12:27:57 PM  

PhoenixFarker: JerseyTim: OTOH: https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1471749391585214465

Empirical data>>>>>>>>>>>>Modeled data.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-12-17 12:30:32 PM  

Stile4aly: If it's that much more transmissible, severity almost doesn't matter.  The sheer number of cases will overwhelm hospital capacity.


Two years in and still most people don't seem to be able to grasp that simple goddamned concept.

Our current medical techniques and technology means LOTS of things which would normally kill you have a "high survivability" because the hospital can keep a husk of a body functioning on machines and drugs long enough to allow your body to recover, when it otherwise would have just been overwhelmed and you would have died. But once the hospitals fill up - like they have several farking times already - then people start dying in droves. And not just from a "mild" and "survivable" COVID, but from ANYTHING which is life threatening without modern medical intervention.

Plus we've spent two years burning out and giving farking PTSD to every frontline person who works in the medical profession, with so many of our citizens engaging in incredibly callous, selfish, stupid, self-destructive, childish behavior. Hospital capacity isn't going to be getting a whole lot better than it is, any time soon.

"Deaths are a trailing indicator" is another phrase every goddamned person should have etched into their brains by now, and this is one of the major reasons why (in addition to timing of getting sick then dying and various reporting timelines/details). Anyone trying the "Oh, but it's MILDER, so ya'll are worrying for nooooothing" bullshiat should wait a week or two, then go lick a doorknob and die. Preferably at home, without further imposing on our already strained medical system and workers.
 
2021-12-17 12:31:05 PM  

Psychopusher: Sliding Carp: Psychopusher: Our numbers here in Ontario shot to over 3,000 today. Yesterday it was 2400+. The day before, 1800+.

What numbers?  self-selected positive tests?  Hospital admittances? ICU admits?  Deaths?  Random tests?  Number of pirates?  What???

The daily numbers that arise from administered PCR tests.  You know, like everywhere else.


No, when you don't put units on your numbers nobody knows wtf you are talking about. And it is not very scientific to assume, is it Mr. science?
 
2021-12-17 12:32:20 PM  

I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Stop thinking about production line profits and REFORM THE DAMNED VACCINES ALREADY.


They won't.

They're going to spend another few months talking about how they weren't wrong about the vaccines' protections and We were always wrong about everything Science and They were always saying Omicron was the next step and They will ask us why We didn't pay them more money to reform the vaccines sooner, and then the Government will send Us back to work.
 
2021-12-17 12:32:36 PM  

Cormee: TFA doesn't say it's just as bad, it says "The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta" that's not the same.

Unless I missed it in another part of the article.


HAHA what
 
2021-12-17 12:33:12 PM  
FTFA:

The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection. However, hospitalisation data remains very limited at this time.

Too early to tell one way or the other because we don't have enough data yet, subby.
 
2021-12-17 12:36:11 PM  

duckpoopy: Psychopusher: Sliding Carp: Psychopusher: Our numbers here in Ontario shot to over 3,000 today. Yesterday it was 2400+. The day before, 1800+.

What numbers?  self-selected positive tests?  Hospital admittances? ICU admits?  Deaths?  Random tests?  Number of pirates?  What???

The daily numbers that arise from administered PCR tests.  You know, like everywhere else.

No, when you don't put units on your numbers nobody knows wtf you are talking about. And it is not very scientific to assume, is it Mr. science?


If I'm referencing COVID numbers in a topic about the Omicron variant's increased transmissibility by specifying values denoted by individual days, I don't think it's much of a stretch to assume people can easily infer what I'm talking about here as fairly obvious, because they're the same daily COVID numbers that get talked about every single day on just about every news broadcast.

But fine.  I'm talking about daily new case counts.  Is that better?
 
2021-12-17 12:43:56 PM  
Lost in the weeds of TFA:

- The distribution of Omicron by age, region and ethnicity currently differs markedly from Delta, with 18-29-year-olds, residents in the London region, and those of African ethnicity having significantly higher rates of infection with Omicron relative to Delta. London is substantially ahead of other English regions in Omicron frequency.

- The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection. However, hospitalisation data remains very limited at this time.

- In the pre-Omicron era, the UK "SIREN" study of COVID infection in healthcare workers estimated that prior infection afforded 85% protection against a second COVID infection over 6 months. The reinfection risk estimated in the current study suggests this protection has  fallen to 19% (95%CI: 0-27%) against an Omicron infection.

- The researchers found a significantly increased risk of developing a symptomatic Omicron case compared to Delta for those who were two or more weeks past their second vaccine dose, and two or more weeks past their booster dose (for AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines). Depending on the estimates used for vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection from the Delta variant, this translates into vaccine effectiveness estimates against symptomatic Omicron infection of between 0% and 20% after two doses, and between 55% and 80% after a booster dose. Similar estimates were obtained using genotype data, albeit with greater uncertainty.

NOTE: The study has not yet been peer-reviewed. Imperial College policy since Delta came out is to publish for public consumption as soon as results are in while awaiting peer-review.


Mask up. Get your farking shots- and the booster. If another booster becomes available later, get that, too. This bug is getting better at infecting us, and there have been too many needless deaths already.
 
Xai
2021-12-17 12:47:54 PM  
This fits with what we are seeing - it's infecting a younger demographic more aggressively which will have lower fatality rates simply due to age and health.

This is the importance of getting actual data.
 
2021-12-17 12:50:54 PM  

Mad_Radhu: Got boosted yesterday, which was a pain in the ass in my area. My local CVS inside of my Target didn't have the vaccines delivered because of staffing issues (guess they have a central location where they keep it cold). I had set up an appointment two weeks ago, so it was really annoying that no one called me to let me know or tried to reschedule me.

They sent me over to another Target for the shot. The other CVS/Target said they shouldn't have because they were all booked up, but they managed to fit me in anyway. It kind of worked out in the end because I was able to get a Moderna booster to go with my original Pfizer vaccination, but it was a little harder than it should have been.

It's a lot harder to get a booster than in should be in the Seattle metro, and it seems to be a lot of healthcare providers just not having the staffing handle the surge in demand.


I did the same thing.  Moderna booster after Pfizer double.  It was weird that the side effects took about 24 hours to develop.  Weirdest symptom was armpit pain--I'm guessing from some kind of lymph node reaction thing.  Had a slight fever too.  In my case, my wife I have to be careful about that for IVF reasons.
 
2021-12-17 12:53:43 PM  

Xai: This fits with what we are seeing - it's infecting a younger demographic more aggressively which will have lower fatality rates simply due to age and health.

This is the importance of getting actual data.


Even if in the end that turns out to be true that's not very helpful when the hospitals hit capacity and people are dying in droves from it anyway.
 
2021-12-17 1:00:12 PM  

Marcos P: Get vaccinated don't be an asshole


Can I be a vaccinated asshole?
 
2021-12-17 1:03:51 PM  
Depending on the estimates used for vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection from the Delta variant, this translates into vaccine effectiveness estimates against symptomatic Omicron infection of between 0% and 20% after two doses, and between 55% and 80% after a booster dose. Similar estimates were obtained using genotype data, albeit with greater uncertainty.

That's about the only mildly positive thing in the whole article. I strongly suspect a lot of people who got both shots aren't going to bother with a booster. I mean I already got vaccinated, why do I need a booster?

/Got it as soon as it was available
 
2021-12-17 1:12:11 PM  
Oh joy, and I can't get a booster until february, at current.
 
2021-12-17 1:12:31 PM  

Psychopusher: But fine. I'm talking about daily new case counts. Is that better?


Marginally.  What population was being tested, that generated those PCR positives?  People showing up at Urgent Care with a cough and fever?  Contact tracing from gatherings where a clinical case was associated?  Random surveillance testing?    Should everyone know what Ontario's criteria for testing are?
 
2021-12-17 1:20:29 PM  

ccsears: Mad_Radhu: Got boosted yesterday, which was a pain in the ass in my area. My local CVS inside of my Target didn't have the vaccines delivered because of staffing issues (guess they have a central location where they keep it cold). I had set up an appointment two weeks ago, so it was really annoying that no one called me to let me know or tried to reschedule me.

They sent me over to another Target for the shot. The other CVS/Target said they shouldn't have because they were all booked up, but they managed to fit me in anyway. It kind of worked out in the end because I was able to get a Moderna booster to go with my original Pfizer vaccination, but it was a little harder than it should have been.

It's a lot harder to get a booster than in should be in the Seattle metro, and it seems to be a lot of healthcare providers just not having the staffing handle the surge in demand.

I did the same thing.  Moderna booster after Pfizer double.  It was weird that the side effects took about 24 hours to develop.  Weirdest symptom was armpit pain--I'm guessing from some kind of lymph node reaction thing.  Had a slight fever too.  In my case, my wife I have to be careful about that for IVF reasons.


Interesting. I am still within the first 24 hours and so far I just feel generally cruddy with a bit of a headache. My wife got her third Pfizer dose yesterday as well, and she feel awful, getting really achy just like she did with her second Pfizer (which didn't hit me that hard).
 
2021-12-17 1:24:07 PM  

Sliding Carp: Psychopusher: But fine. I'm talking about daily new case counts. Is that better?

Marginally.  What population was being tested, that generated those PCR positives?  People showing up at Urgent Care with a cough and fever?  Contact tracing from gatherings where a clinical case was associated?  Random surveillance testing?    Should everyone know what Ontario's criteria for testing are?


You seem to be suggesting that our news shows and newspapers and news websites provide daily comprehensive breakdowns of how each test was performed on what segments of the population at which testing centres under what circumstances that I, for some wildly bizarre reason, am omitting because they somehow matter.

I am simply discussing the daily new case numbers -- the same numbers every region of every city of every province/state/county/territory/continent/planet reports multiple times every day on every news broadcast -- not entering into a debate on the efficacy and accuracy of PCR vs. antigen tests, the reliability and usefulness of contact tracing, the ability to locate patient zero of a particular regional oubreak, or anything else.  The news reports it, I relay it in a relevant topic.  Complaining that I'm not being granular enough is ridiculous.
 
2021-12-17 1:28:03 PM  

Wobambo: And next week we'll probably have three more red states declare the pandemic over.


I hope they turn at least purple before November 2022 as a rich reward.

Speed the Death Plow.
 
Xai
2021-12-17 1:33:45 PM  

mongbiohazard: Xai: This fits with what we are seeing - it's infecting a younger demographic more aggressively which will have lower fatality rates simply due to age and health.

This is the importance of getting actual data.

Even if in the end that turns out to be true that's not very helpful when the hospitals hit capacity and people are dying in droves from it anyway.


Oh no, I totally agree - the younger people getting sick will be in addition to the older deaths we expect from such waves.
 
2021-12-17 1:47:04 PM  

Mad_Radhu: Got boosted yesterday, which was a pain in the ass in my area. My local CVS inside of my Target didn't have the vaccines delivered because of staffing issues (guess they have a central location where they keep it cold). I had set up an appointment two weeks ago, so it was really annoying that no one called me to let me know or tried to reschedule me.

They sent me over to another Target for the shot. The other CVS/Target said they shouldn't have because they were all booked up, but they managed to fit me in anyway. It kind of worked out in the end because I was able to get a Moderna booster to go with my original Pfizer vaccination, but it was a little harder than it should have been.

It's a lot harder to get a booster than in should be in the Seattle metro, and it seems to be a lot of healthcare providers just not having the staffing handle the surge in demand.


Oh, then you should just come down to South Carolina, where there are walk in clinics with zero wait! Because the entire state is crazy... and no one wears masks... and the vaccination rate is one of the lowest in America...  Y'know what? never mind.

/Things are gonna be real bad in the south, real quick.
 
2021-12-17 2:05:31 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Stop thinking about production line profits and REFORM THE DAMNED VACCINES ALREADY.

They won't.

They're going to spend another few months talking about how they weren't wrong about the vaccines' protections and We were always wrong about everything Science and They were always saying Omicron was the next step and They will ask us why We didn't pay them more money to reform the vaccines sooner, and then the Government will send Us back to work.


The folks who INVENTED the damn mRNA technique probably had a new version base on the Omicron sequence last week.  But the corporations will just look at it and shrug.  "We'll wait for some more government money upfront first."
 
2021-12-17 2:08:34 PM  

standardeviation: Mad_Radhu: Got boosted yesterday, which was a pain in the ass in my area. My local CVS inside of my Target didn't have the vaccines delivered because of staffing issues (guess they have a central location where they keep it cold). I had set up an appointment two weeks ago, so it was really annoying that no one called me to let me know or tried to reschedule me.

They sent me over to another Target for the shot. The other CVS/Target said they shouldn't have because they were all booked up, but they managed to fit me in anyway. It kind of worked out in the end because I was able to get a Moderna booster to go with my original Pfizer vaccination, but it was a little harder than it should have been.

It's a lot harder to get a booster than in should be in the Seattle metro, and it seems to be a lot of healthcare providers just not having the staffing handle the surge in demand.

Oh, then you should just come down to South Carolina, where there are walk in clinics with zero wait! Because the entire state is crazy... and no one wears masks... and the vaccination rate is one of the lowest in America...  Y'know what? never mind.

/Things are gonna be real bad in the south, real quick.


Yeah, it is actually kind of reassuring that trying to find a booster in Seattle right now is like trying to find a PS5 and people are generally really good about masking. Washington State is 46th in the nation for deaths per million in population, despite having some of the first cases of community spread last spring and Eastern Washington being full of MAGA plague rats. I'm proud of how Western Washington has responded to this compared to other parts of the country.
 
2021-12-17 2:13:28 PM  

I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Bennie Crabtree: I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Stop thinking about production line profits and REFORM THE DAMNED VACCINES ALREADY.

They won't.

They're going to spend another few months talking about how they weren't wrong about the vaccines' protections and We were always wrong about everything Science and They were always saying Omicron was the next step and They will ask us why We didn't pay them more money to reform the vaccines sooner, and then the Government will send Us back to work.

The folks who INVENTED the damn mRNA technique probably had a new version base on the Omicron sequence last week.  But the corporations will just look at it and shrug.  "We'll wait for some more government money upfront first."


To be fair, there's a lot of testing and trials that need to be done on an updated vaccine. You just can't start widespread shots, especially if the existing vaccines still work pretty well with boosters. You don't want to hurt people and undermine the trust of the public just to gain 20-30% efficacy.
 
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