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(The Hill)   America must prepare to lose another war in Asia   (thehill.com) divider line
    More: Murica, Republic of China, United States, President of the United States, Pacific Ocean, United States armed forces, Chinese control of Taiwan, World War II, China's massive investment  
•       •       •

3796 clicks; posted to Politics » on 25 Nov 2021 at 7:20 AM (11 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



197 Comments     (+0 »)
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2021-11-25 4:21:31 AM  
Don't worry, conservative are just looking for a rebound war after the Middle East.
 
2021-11-25 7:22:18 AM  
Get ready for the longest retreat in US military history.
 
2021-11-25 7:23:29 AM  
"Damn, but the defense industry just NEEDS a shot in the arm in these post-wardoldrums..."
 
2021-11-25 7:24:30 AM  
Let me guess. They mean prepare as if it's inevitable and we should do it and it'll be awesome like the manufactured consent with the Iraq war as opposed to the usual "possibility we should account for with our troop deployments" that the Pentagon is always analyzing and shuffling around troops in response.
 
2021-11-25 7:26:00 AM  
Bwah. We're never going to war with China over Taiwan.

And this Domino Theory v2.0 BS is laughable.
 
2021-11-25 7:26:07 AM  
I think if you want to vastly reduce the world's population, a war with China's the way to do it.

Of course, it's not all environmental bliss - that war would almost certainly have some nuclear exchanges in it, so there could be some significant reduction in quality of life even with all the resource reduction implicit in a smaller global population.
 
2021-11-25 7:31:28 AM  
Somehow "just accepting" that an authoritarian country is just going to go around absorbing other countries seems like a really I'll thought out plan.
 
2021-11-25 7:32:24 AM  

Unsung_Hero: I think if you want to vastly reduce the world's population, a war with China's the way to do it.

Of course, it's not all environmental bliss - that war would almost certainly have some nuclear exchanges in it, so there could be some significant reduction in quality of life even with all the resource reduction implicit in a smaller global population.


If they ever drop the Bomb, I want the first one to fall right on top of my head.
 
2021-11-25 7:35:27 AM  
Saber rattling shill. Lulz.
 
2021-11-25 7:38:06 AM  
I love that their arguments are all either flimsy or 60 years out of date. Controlling Taiwan to contain Japan? Why do you need any island to control shipping lanes when we have planes that can strike nearly any place on Earth flying out of the middle of the USA? This isn't WWII with P38s patrolling the seas.

And the semiconductor argument is just silly; like China doesn't already produce the vast majority of semiconductors in the world, or that we don't have access to said technology? If you wanted to protect semiconductor trade, bring the manufacturer to the mainland, don't leave it sitting on a vulnerable disputed island near China.
 
2021-11-25 7:38:53 AM  
Hey, let's not get caught up in the heat of the moment.
 
2021-11-25 7:40:12 AM  
Perhaps most importantly, Taiwan is the center for advanced semiconductor production; the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) boasts that it has the most advanced foundry in the world. Chinese control of TSMC would provide it enormous economic benefit and would result in the world being dependent on an authoritarian regime for advanced semiconductors - and all that would mean for the integrity of supply chains.

This is a dumb take.  Semiconductors are a technology, not a resource.  The US could build larger and more factories whenever it wants.  It's just not been economically important or necessary to do so for the government or for corporations.  Truly limiting or cutting off supply would immediately make it so.

China could do the same right now if it felt it needed semiconductors so badly.  Semiconductors are not what the Chinese idea of Taiwan reunification is about.

This is like saying the US wants to invade Cuba to control the world's cigar reserves.

Yes, China wants Taiwan back, but stop trying to scare us with semiconductors.
 
2021-11-25 7:41:20 AM  
Against the people that managed to wear masks to beat Covid?  Nah.  China has demonstrated its ability to beat us.  Zero reason to ever trust someone that won't wear a mask or get vaccinated in a theater of War against the Giant Enemy That Could.
 
2021-11-25 7:41:40 AM  
I would like to see our government help set up manufacturing away from China. In the USA would be best. But at least away from China control. Capitalism be damned. Many other countries governments help their manufacturing stay competitive.
One example. When Japan wanted to take over the computerized heavy milling industry, they created a government run lottery. The proceeds went straight to the company so they could sell cheap.
 
2021-11-25 7:45:41 AM  
Americans should fall for one of the classic blunders?

Inconceivable!
 
2021-11-25 7:51:24 AM  

HighOnCraic: Americans should fall for one of the classic blunders?

Inconceivable!


Taiwan = island ≠ land war.

/Also, when it inevitably escalates, a nuclear war is not--technically--a land war.
 
2021-11-25 7:55:10 AM  
fark The Hill and happy Thanksgiving.
 
2021-11-25 7:55:11 AM  
Can we just take all the money we'd spend on that and develop our own tech industries instead, so that we can outcompete china in tech commerce and production?

That's how you defeat China, stop us and everyone else buying from them by offering better alternatives.
Oh, and consequences from the entire world for their brzenly stealing intellectual property would work wonders too.

/ Not holding my breath
 
2021-11-25 7:56:23 AM  
Of course we must prepare for war with China over Taiwan, and with Russia over eastern Europe.

And of course we HAVE been preparing for those.

That doesn't mean we expect or want to have to put those plans into action.
 
2021-11-25 8:00:56 AM  

feltrider: Don't worry, conservative are just looking for a rebound war after the Middle East.


Yep, the grift must flow
 
2021-11-25 8:02:07 AM  

Chthonic Echoes: HighOnCraic: Americans should fall for one of the classic blunders?

Inconceivable!

Taiwan = island ≠ land war.

/Also, when it inevitably escalates, a nuclear war is not--technically--a land war.


How many 6 inch aquatic robots does it take to being down a carrier?  China will figure out a way to sink our fleet in an afternoon.
 
2021-11-25 8:03:08 AM  
This "cold war with China" looks like such a contrived, easily-avoided thing.

America's abandonment of the "one China" policy was a Trump-era innovation, ill-advised, needless and short-sighted at the time. There is no reason the U.S. can't go back to the more ambiguous status quo.

If there's concern about hypersonic weapons or outer-space weapons, why not start talking about weapons limitation treaties. It's not as if arms races are inevitable. Nixon managed to start a détente policy.
 
2021-11-25 8:04:22 AM  
Why are the fascists beating the war drums?

/a rhetorical question.
 
2021-11-25 8:04:48 AM  

Chthonic Echoes: HighOnCraic: Americans should fall for one of the classic blunders?

Inconceivable!

Taiwan = island ≠ land war.

/Also, when it inevitably escalates, a nuclear war is not--technically--a land war.


Maybe Xi is Sicilian?
 
2021-11-25 8:07:05 AM  
Nixon, you dolt!
 
2021-11-25 8:09:02 AM  
Ugh, I guess the economy is draining those war coffers from the brushfires a little too fast huh?
 
2021-11-25 8:09:02 AM  
We're fine as long as we have immunity to iocane powder and don't engage Sicilians in death matches.
 
2021-11-25 8:11:41 AM  
We? What's this "we" shiat? If "we" want to risk the end of the world over a farking island, "we" can count "me" out.
 
2021-11-25 8:18:04 AM  

Shaggy_C: I love that their arguments are all either flimsy or 60 years out of date. Controlling Taiwan to contain Japan? Why do you need any island to control shipping lanes when we have planes that can strike nearly any place on Earth flying out of the middle of the USA? This isn't WWII with P38s patrolling the seas.

And the semiconductor argument is just silly; like China doesn't already produce the vast majority of semiconductors in the world, or that we don't have access to said technology? If you wanted to protect semiconductor trade, bring the manufacturer to the mainland, don't leave it sitting on a vulnerable disputed island near China.


The semiconductor issue is very serious.

Taiwan does have one the most advanced semiconductor production facilities in the world. All chips 7nm or lower are made either by Samsung or TSMC (the taiwanese company). The amd Ryzen, the apple m1, etc are produced by TSMC, for instance.
Even at larger node size, TSMC is a major chip manufacturer.

China doesn't have the technology to make advanced semiconductors because there's only one company in the world that knows how to build, maintain and run the absurdly complex photolithography machines that can make 7nm chips (a dutch company named asml) and they are forbidden to export to china.
Even at larger size than 7nm, asml has the lion share of the lithography machines market.

Even intel will need years to catch up with TSMC/Samsung, and that's assuming they can purchase enough lithography machines from asml (which produces a handful per year) to ramp up their production.

So china taking over Taiwan would give them immense leverage. I mean, there's already a semiconductor shortage that has caused some car companies to shut down production lines.
 
2021-11-25 8:18:45 AM  
Our military industrial complex never met a war it didn't like.

With the $$$ faucet not justified for more bombs as the children of our soldiers starve and veteran's struggle to get care, people are noticing; hey, this kind of sucks.

People are getting uppity. Best way to handle that? Send em somewhere else, to die, and for profit.

I expect to be reading a lot about Ukraine and Taiwan and anywhere else we could shove an ICBM with an American flag painted on it, unril we finally settle on somewhere that triggers the national bloodlust, just right.
 
2021-11-25 8:19:33 AM  
I promise any cheerleader for this war that if it comes to fighting, dying, and spending money on Taiwan; China has way more willingness to sacrifice all of that than the US does
 
2021-11-25 8:19:35 AM  
I for one, would be fine with more expensive semiconductors if it means less dead soldiers.
 
2021-11-25 8:21:02 AM  
If the USA goes on another stupid, pointless, expensive war, then decent folk should burn the country down from within since there's nothing worth salvaging here.
 
2021-11-25 8:21:42 AM  

MORB: So china taking over Taiwan would give them immense leverage. I mean, there's already a semiconductor shortage that has caused some car companies to shut down production lines.


on the plus side, I made a profit selling a 2 year old used GPU. YAY capitalism!
 
2021-11-25 8:24:54 AM  

Chthonic Echoes: HighOnCraic: Americans should fall for one of the classic blunders?

Inconceivable!

Taiwan = island ≠ land war.

/Also, when it inevitably escalates, a nuclear war is not--technically--a land war.


A war with China will not inevitably turn nuclear. History has shown that nations possessing nuclear weapons have gone to war over more existential threats (India/Pakistan, Israel, etc) without dropping the bomb. A nuclear strike would be world-ending and only a psychopath would order that . . . and we can at least hope that our leaders are not psychopaths.

What's pretty much guaranteed though is that their hackers will destroy our infrastructure and we theirs. So we all get to sit in the cold darkness and starve, even if we don't glow in the process.

Which is nice, I guess.
 
2021-11-25 8:25:06 AM  

MORB: Shaggy_C: I love that their arguments are all either flimsy or 60 years out of date. Controlling Taiwan to contain Japan? Why do you need any island to control shipping lanes when we have planes that can strike nearly any place on Earth flying out of the middle of the USA? This isn't WWII with P38s patrolling the seas.

And the semiconductor argument is just silly; like China doesn't already produce the vast majority of semiconductors in the world, or that we don't have access to said technology? If you wanted to protect semiconductor trade, bring the manufacturer to the mainland, don't leave it sitting on a vulnerable disputed island near China.

The semiconductor issue is very serious.

Taiwan does have one the most advanced semiconductor production facilities in the world. All chips 7nm or lower are made either by Samsung or TSMC (the taiwanese company). The amd Ryzen, the apple m1, etc are produced by TSMC, for instance.
Even at larger node size, TSMC is a major chip manufacturer.

China doesn't have the technology to make advanced semiconductors because there's only one company in the world that knows how to build, maintain and run the absurdly complex photolithography machines that can make 7nm chips (a dutch company named asml) and they are forbidden to export to china.
Even at larger size than 7nm, asml has the lion share of the lithography machines market.

Even intel will need years to catch up with TSMC/Samsung, and that's assuming they can purchase enough lithography machines from asml (which produces a handful per year) to ramp up their production.

So china taking over Taiwan would give them immense leverage. I mean, there's already a semiconductor shortage that has caused some car companies to shut down production lines.


None of this sounds like something people should die over.
 
2021-11-25 8:26:01 AM  

MORB: Shaggy_C: I love that their arguments are all either flimsy or 60 years out of date. Controlling Taiwan to contain Japan? Why do you need any island to control shipping lanes when we have planes that can strike nearly any place on Earth flying out of the middle of the USA? This isn't WWII with P38s patrolling the seas.

And the semiconductor argument is just silly; like China doesn't already produce the vast majority of semiconductors in the world, or that we don't have access to said technology? If you wanted to protect semiconductor trade, bring the manufacturer to the mainland, don't leave it sitting on a vulnerable disputed island near China.

The semiconductor issue is very serious.

Taiwan does have one the most advanced semiconductor production facilities in the world. All chips 7nm or lower are made either by Samsung or TSMC (the taiwanese company). The amd Ryzen, the apple m1, etc are produced by TSMC, for instance.
Even at larger node size, TSMC is a major chip manufacturer.

China doesn't have the technology to make advanced semiconductors because there's only one company in the world that knows how to build, maintain and run the absurdly complex photolithography machines that can make 7nm chips (a dutch company named asml) and they are forbidden to export to china.
Even at larger size than 7nm, asml has the lion share of the lithography machines market.

Even intel will need years to catch up with TSMC/Samsung, and that's assuming they can purchase enough lithography machines from asml (which produces a handful per year) to ramp up their production.

So china taking over Taiwan would give them immense leverage. I mean, there's already a semiconductor shortage that has caused some car companies to shut down production lines.


This implies that none of the scientists and none of their research could be taken out of Taiwan.  There doesn't need to be a semiconductor shortage.  It's an industry choice.
 
2021-11-25 8:26:41 AM  
that war was lost decades ago.

give over all the manufacturing to another country. now that manufacturing owns you. and it created a middle class now which is in turn leading to your media being owned.

but hey, the Walton family has multiple billionaires, so it's all good.
 
2021-11-25 8:26:47 AM  
War, war never changes...
 
2021-11-25 8:30:40 AM  
The blade itself incites to deeds of violence.
 
2021-11-25 8:31:09 AM  
Why are we still pretending that america has clout on the world stage?
 
2021-11-25 8:32:08 AM  
Give Taiwan nukes. End of issue with China.
 
2021-11-25 8:32:47 AM  

toraque: Chthonic Echoes: HighOnCraic: Americans should fall for one of the classic blunders?

Inconceivable!

Taiwan = island ≠ land war.

/Also, when it inevitably escalates, a nuclear war is not--technically--a land war.

A war with China will not inevitably turn nuclear. History has shown that nations possessing nuclear weapons have gone to war over more existential threats (India/Pakistan, Israel, etc) without dropping the bomb. A nuclear strike would be world-ending and only a psychopath would order that . . . and we can at least hope that our leaders are not psychopaths.

What's pretty much guaranteed though is that their hackers will destroy our infrastructure and we theirs. So we all get to sit in the cold darkness and starve, even if we don't glow in the process.

Which is nice, I guess.


If the US loses a carrier, the war will go nuclear. Tactical first, missiles to follow.
 
2021-11-25 8:38:47 AM  

OdradekRex: toraque: Chthonic Echoes: HighOnCraic: Americans should fall for one of the classic blunders?

Inconceivable!

Taiwan = island ≠ land war.

/Also, when it inevitably escalates, a nuclear war is not--technically--a land war.

A war with China will not inevitably turn nuclear. History has shown that nations possessing nuclear weapons have gone to war over more existential threats (India/Pakistan, Israel, etc) without dropping the bomb. A nuclear strike would be world-ending and only a psychopath would order that . . . and we can at least hope that our leaders are not psychopaths.

What's pretty much guaranteed though is that their hackers will destroy our infrastructure and we theirs. So we all get to sit in the cold darkness and starve, even if we don't glow in the process.

Which is nice, I guess.

If the US loses a carrier, the war will go nuclear. Tactical first, missiles to follow.


We're farked then, because we'll lose two carriers before the first engagement when they collide on patrol!
 
2021-11-25 8:40:01 AM  

OdradekRex: toraque: Chthonic Echoes: HighOnCraic: Americans should fall for one of the classic blunders?

Inconceivable!

Taiwan = island ≠ land war.

/Also, when it inevitably escalates, a nuclear war is not--technically--a land war.

A war with China will not inevitably turn nuclear. History has shown that nations possessing nuclear weapons have gone to war over more existential threats (India/Pakistan, Israel, etc) without dropping the bomb. A nuclear strike would be world-ending and only a psychopath would order that . . . and we can at least hope that our leaders are not psychopaths.

What's pretty much guaranteed though is that their hackers will destroy our infrastructure and we theirs. So we all get to sit in the cold darkness and starve, even if we don't glow in the process.

Which is nice, I guess.

If the US loses a carrier, the war will go nuclear. Tactical first, missiles to follow.


My favorite type of internet analysis, a completely unsubstantiated prediction without any explanation behind why it's supposedly true.
 
2021-11-25 8:41:12 AM  
China and the U.S. are not going to war, over Taiwan or anything else. Their economies are far too intertwined. We'll be happy to sell Taiwan military equipment, though. 

We're not going to war with Russia over Ukraine, either. We didn't do it when Russia took Crimea, and we won't do it now. The EU (Germany) has decided that the flow of Russian natural gas is more important than Ukraine. We'll be happy to sell Ukraine military equipment, though.
 
2021-11-25 8:41:12 AM  

Shaggy_C: I love that their arguments are all either flimsy or 60 years out of date. Controlling Taiwan to contain Japan? Why do you need any island to control shipping lanes when we have planes that can strike nearly any place on Earth flying out of the middle of the USA? This isn't WWII with P38s patrolling the seas.

And the semiconductor argument is just silly; like China doesn't already produce the vast majority of semiconductors in the world, or that we don't have access to said technology? If you wanted to protect semiconductor trade, bring the manufacturer to the mainland, don't leave it sitting on a vulnerable disputed island near China.


That wasn't the argument made, it was the opposite.

Anyways, ASML from the Netherlands is the only company in the world that can manufacture those machines for 5nm silicon. And ASML doesn't sell to PRC, so they can't, and won't be able to for ages. They don't have ASML, or Zeiss either (Zeiss makes the worlds flattest object, which is used in the machines).

If Taiwan falls to PRC, then TSMC can't progress in semiconductors.
 
2021-11-25 8:41:24 AM  

Roastbeast Sammich: This "cold war with China" looks like such a contrived, easily-avoided thing.

America's abandonment of the "one China" policy was a Trump-era innovation, ill-advised, needless and short-sighted at the time. There is no reason the U.S. can't go back to the more ambiguous status quo.

If there's concern about hypersonic weapons or outer-space weapons, why not start talking about weapons limitation treaties. It's not as if arms races are inevitable. Nixon managed to start a détente policy.


Swarm weapons are where it's at these days.  There's zero reason why a $250,000 autonomous aquatic swarm can't bring down a 14 billion dollar carrier.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidham​b​ling/2021/03/01/what-are-drone-swarms-​and-why-does-everyone-suddenly-want-on​e/
 
2021-11-25 8:42:57 AM  
China has the ability now to put q  naval blockade around Taiwan. I doubt we risk war to stop it. They could take it without firing a shot in that scenario. Just wait until the economic pain is to great for Taiwan and negotiate a resolution with terms in China's favor.
 
2021-11-25 8:44:04 AM  

HypnozombieX: Somehow "just accepting" that an authoritarian country is just going to go around absorbing other countries seems like a really I'll thought out plan.


USA doesn't recognise Taiwan as a country, very few do. The few that do, doesn't recognise the PRC as a country.

Taiwan itself only formally recognises one China, with them as the rulers of all of it.
 
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